Michael's Telluride Film Blog : The FAC's First Look After The PGA / More on Son of Saul / Todd Haynes Talks Carol and More...

Thursday, January 28, 2016

The FAC's First Look After The PGA / More on Son of Saul / Todd Haynes Talks Carol and More...

Good Thursday Everyone...

THE FAC'S FIRST LOOK AFTER THE PGA

We asked on Monday if last weekend's Producers Guild win by Adam McKay's The Big Short had changed the Best Picture Oscar race and that answer is yes...but...perhaps not as much as I would have thought.

For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood/Indiewire

Some of these experts have not yet updated their predictions. That data has been discounted.

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

Here's The FAC for Oscar wins in eight major categories:

BEST PICTURE

1) The Big Short
2) Spotlight
3) The Revenant
4) Mad Max: Fury Road
5) The Martian
6) Room
7) Bridge of Spies
8) Brooklyn

Comment: The Big Short and Spotlight are actually tied in the FAC numbers but the Short edges in front due to more #1 votes. SO, The FAC says it's close. Check the Gold Derby link below and you'll see that a broader segment of Oscar experts agree that the contest is still tight. That all could change over the next two weekends with The Screen Actors Guild Awards and then The Directors Guild.

BEST DIRECTION

1) Alejandro Inarittu/The Revenant
2) Adam McKay/The Big Short
3) Tom McCarthy/Spotlight
4) George Miller/Mad Max: fury Road
5) Lenny Abrahamson/Room

BEST ACTRESS

1) Brie Larson/Room
2) Saorise Ronan/Brooklyn
3) Charlotte Rampling/45 Years
4) Cate Blanchett/Carol
5) Jennifer Lawrence/Joy

BEST ACTOR

1) Leonardo DiCaprio/The Revenant
2) Bryan Cranston/Trumbo
3) Michael Fassbender/Steve Jobs
4) Matt Damon/The Martian
5) Eddie Redmayne/The Danish Girl

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Alicia Vikander/The Danish Girl
2) Rooney Mara/Carol
3) Kate Winslet/Steve Jobs
4) Jennifer Jason Leigh/The Hateful Eight
5) Rachel McAdams/Spotlight

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Sylvester Stallone/Creed
2) Mark Ruffalo/Spotlight
3) Mark Rylance/Bridge of Spies
4) Christian Bale/The Big Short
5) Tom Hardy/The Revenant

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) The Big Short
2) Room
3) Carol
4) Brooklyn
5) The Martian

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Spotlight
2) Inside Out
3) Straight outta Compton
4) Bridge of Spies
5) Ex Machina

Comments: The closest category: Best Director. Unanimous choices: DiCaprio, Vikander, and the screenplays for both The Big Short and Spotlight. Stallone is not a unanimous choice but he's close. The Best Actress race seems a little closer than I would have thought.

Meanwhile, the Gold Derby experts say that Spotlight still has a small edge over The Big Short but it's tight:

http://www.goldderby.com/odds/experts/416/

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