Wednesday, January 13, 2016

The (Probably) Final Film Awards Clearinghouse Oscar Nomination Predcitions

Here they are...what is almost the final version of the FAC before Oscar nominations are announced tomorrow morning.  I will be along tomorrow with a post-announcement post that does some analysis in terms of Telluride films as well as some general observations.

I should note here that The FAC is historically about 75-80% accurate on nomination morning,  In most categories, The FAC usually misses one nomination but it's good to note that The FAC's #6 in most categories is the film/person that picks up the nomination-also about 75% of the time.

Categories where a #7 or higher seeded film/person gets nominated are relatively rare.

That said, this year has been so weird and uncertain, I really do expect that The FAC's percentage is likely to be lower than average.

For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Peter Knegt/Indiewire
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

TFF #42 films are in Bold.


1) Sanjay's Super Team 
2) We Can't Live Without the Cosmos
3) World of Tomorrow
4) Bear Story
5) If I Was God

6) Prologue
7) Love in the Time of March Madness
8) An Object at Rest
9) My Home
10) Carface


1) Ave Maria
2) Shok
3) Day One
4) Stutterer
5) Everything Will Be Okay

6) Bad Hunter
7) The Free Man
8) Winter Light
9) Bis Gliech
10) Contralepo


1) Claude Lanzman: Spectres of the Shoah
2) Body Team 12
3) A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
4) Last Day of Freedom
5) 50 Feet from Syria

6) Minertia
7) My Enemy, My Brother
8) Starting Point
9) The Testimony
10) Chau, Beyond the Lines


1) Inside Out
2) Anomalisa
3) Shaun the Sheep
4) The Good Dinosaur
5) The Peanuts Movie

6) Kahlil Gibron's The Prophet
7) Minions
8) When Marnie Was There
9) Boy and the World
10) Home

Comment:  "Inside Out" and "Anomalisa" are locks.  It'll be interesting to see if the category goes a to five nominees all of which will be honored to be nominated in a year where "Inside Out" has the Oscar in a death grip.


1) The Danish Girl
2) Carol
3) Bridge of Spies
4) Mad Max: Fury Road
5) Star Wars: The Force Awakens

6) Cinderella
7) The Martian
8) Brooklyn
9) The Hateful Eight
10) The Revenant

Comment:  A very, very competitive category.


1) The Hateful Eight
2) Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3) Carol
4) The Danish Girl
5) Bridge of Spies

6) Spotlight
7) Inside Out
8) Steve Jobs
9) Sicario
10) Mad Max: Fury Road

Comment: The films' scores listed in the 4-7 positions are probably in a real fight for the last two spots in the category.


1) 'Til It Happens to You/The Hunting Ground
2) See You Again/Furious 7
3) Simple Song #3/Youth
4) Love Me Like You Do/50 Shades of Grey
5) Writing's on the Wall/Spectre

6) Earned It/50 Shades of Grey
7) So Long/Concussion
8) Flashlight/Pitch Perfect 2
9) Feels Like Summer/Shaun the Sheep
10) I'll See You in My Dreams/I'll See You in My Dreams (tie)
10) Cold One/Rikki and the Flash

Comment: Try on these phrases...Oscar nominees "50 Shades of Grey" and/or "Furious 7".  Looks like it could really happen.  Maybe twice for "50 Shades".


1) Carol
2) The Danish Girl
3) Cinderella
4) Brooklyn
5) Mad Max: Fury Road

6) The Hateful Eight
7) The Revenant
8) The Crimson Peak
9) Suffragette
10) Trumbo

Comment: The top four spots seem relatively certain with a big scrum for the fifth nomination.

If The FAC is 100% accurate, Telluride films in these categories will earn fur nominations with another three possibilities.


1) Mad Max: Fury Road
2) Black Mass
3) The Revenant

4) Mr. Holmes
5) The 100 Year Old Man...
6) Concussion
7) Legend


1) Star Wars; The Force Awakens
2) The Martian
3) Mad Max; Fury Road
4) The Walk
5) Jurassic World

6) Transformers: Age of Ultron
7) Ex Machina
8) The Revenant
9) Ant Man
10) Tomorrowland

Comment;  The top three films look solid for a nomination here.  After them, it's up for grabs for the last two spots.


1) Mad Max: Fury Road
2) Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3) The Martian
4) The Revenant
5) The Hateful Eight

6) Sicario
7) Spectre
8) Jurassic World
9) Straight Outta Compton
10) Creed


1) Mad Max: Fury Road
2) The Martian
3) The Revenant
4) Star Wars: The Force Awakens
5) The Hateful Eight

6) Jurassic World
7) Spectre
8) Inside Out
9) Sicario
10) In the Heart of the Sea

Comment:The top three in Mixing and the top four in Editing seem to be solid.  Oft times a musical film will nose its way into one or both of these categories, especially Mixing.  "Compton" and "Love and Mercy" might sneak in, but even that appears unlikely.


1) Mad Max: Fury Road (1)
2) The Martian (3)
3) Spotlight (2)
4) The Revenant (5)
5) The Big Short (4)

6) Bridge of Spies (60
7) Sicario (9)
8) Straight Outta Compton (NR)
9) Star Wars: The Force Awakens
10) Creed (10)

Comment: In light of the A.C.E. Eddie nominations, don't be surprised if "Spotlight" is replaced by Sicario or Bridge of Spies.


1) Amy (1)
2) The Look of Silence (2)
3) Cartel Land (10)
4) Going Clear (3)
5) He Named Me Malala (7)

6) Where Are You Miss Simone? (9)
7) Listen to Me Marlon (8)
8) Where to Invade Next (6)
9) Best of Enemies (4)
10) The Hunting Ground (5)

Hot: Cartel Land, Malala, Miss Simone
Not: Where to Invade, Enemies and Hunting Ground

Comment: Really, after the first two docs, the category is still wide open...all the way down to the 11th place film: Winter on Fire.


1) Son of Saul (1)
2) Mustang (3)
3) Labyrinth of Lies (2)
4) A War (NR)
5) Viva (7)

6) Theeb (NR)
7) A New Testament (NR)
8) Embrace of the Serpent (NR)
9) The Fencer (NR)

Son of Saul remains the big favorite, although Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention reports that "Saul" was one of the films added to semi-final list by the FLF committee rather than by the vote of the branch members which may indicate some serious weakness in its position.


1) The Revenant (1)
2) Sicario (3)
3) Mad Max: Fury Road (2)
4) Carol (5)
5) The Hateful Eight (4)

6) Bridge of Spies (7)
7) The Martian (6)
8) Son of Saul (9)
9) Brooklyn (NR)
10) Creed (10)


1) Room (1)
2) The Big Short (5)
3) The Martian (3)
4) Steve Jobs (2)
5) Carol (6)

6) Brooklyn (4)
7) Anomalisa (7)
8) The Revenant (8)
9) Trumbo (9)
10) Creed (10)

Hot: The Big Short
Not: Steve Jobs and Brooklyn

Comment: The Big Short solidifies its position in the category.  The numbers suggest that the only real threats below the top five are Brooklyn and The Revenant.


1) Spotlight (1)
2) Inside Out (2)
3) The Hateful Eight (3)
4) Bridge of Spies (4)
5) Ex Machina (5)

6) Straight Outta Compton (8)
7) Sicario (10)
8) Joy (6)
9) Trainwreck (7)
10) Youth (9)

Hot: Compton and Sicario
Not: Joy and Trainwreck

Comment:  Like Adapted Screenplays, the top ten remained consistent but there was good deal of jostling below the top five.


1) Rooney Mara/Carol (3)
2) Kate Winslet/Steve Jobs (3)
3) Alicia Vikander/The Danish Girl (1)
4) Jennifer Jason Leigh/The Hateful Eight (4)
5) Rachel McAdams/Spotlight (5)

6) Helen Mirren/Trumbo (6)
7) Alicia Vikander/Ex Machina (10)
8) Jane Fonda/Youth (7)
9) Kristen Stewart/Clouds of Sils Maria (9)
10) Joan Allen/Room (NR)

Hot: Mara, Vikander (for Ex Machina) and Allen
Not: Vikander (for The Danish Girl) and Banks

Comment: Vikander drops here because she's picking up steam in the lead category for the same role and then the  possibilities get even weirder.  What if Vikander gets enough support to be nominated for both Danish AND Ex Machina in THIS category and misses in Lead?  That could happen too.

My head hurts...


1) Mark Rylance/Bridge of Spies (1)
2) Idris Elba/Beasts of No Nation (3)
3) Sylvester Stallone/Creed (2)
4) Christian Bale/The Big Short (9)
5) Michael Shannon/99 Homes (4) (TFF #41)

6) Mark Ruffalo/Spotlight (8)
7) Jacob Tremblay/Room (5)
8) Michael Keaton/Spotlight (6)
9) Paul Dano/Love and Mercy (7)
10) Benicio Del Toro/Sicario (NR)

Hot: Bale, Ruffalo and Del Toro
Not: Tremblay, Keaton, Dano and Hardy

Comment: Rylance is possibly your only sure bet in this category,  Elba and Stallone are very likely...but I wouldn't even call them locks at this point.


1) Brie Larson/Room (1)
2) Saorise Ronan/Brooklyn (2)
3) Cate Blanchett/Carol (3)
4) Charlotte Rampling/45 Years (4)
5) Jennifer Lawrence/Joy (5)

6) Rooney Mara/Carol (6)
7) Helen Mirren/Woman in Gold (9)
8) Lily Tomlin/Grandma (8)
9) Charlize Theron/Mad Max:Fury Road (NR)
10) Maggie Smith/The Lady in the Van (NR)

Hot: Dame Helen, Theron and Dame Maggie
Not: Silverman and Mulligan

Comment:  A "stable" category through the five nomination spots...BUT... what if Mara bumps Lawrence because the Academy isn't buying The Weinstien Company's campaign for her in Supporting?  The same question could be asked  about Alicia Vikander in The Danish Girl, who sits at #11 on the Best Actress FAC.  That would/could turn both female acting categories on their heads.
What if there is enough bleed over for one or both women that one or both miss being nominated in either category (though Vikander has a real shot at getting in Supporting for Ex Machina...which is also, arguably a lead role as well)?

What are Oscars rules if one or both get enough votes for the same role to be nominated in either category?  MAYHEM!

Thursday morning could be REALLY interesting.


1) Leonardo DiCaprio/The Revenant (1)
2) Bryan Cranston/Trumbo (5)
3) Michael Fassbender/Steve Jobs (2)
4) Eddie Redmayne/The Danish Girl (3)
5) Matt Damon/The Martian (4)

6) Johnny Depp/Black Mass (6)
7) Will Smith/Concussion (7)
8) Michael B. Jordan/Creed (NR)
9) Michael Caine/Youth (9)
10) Steve Carell/The Big Short (10)

Hot: Cranston, Jordan
Not: McKellen

Comment: It seems to me that this category might be locked with the top five.


1)  Ridley Scott/The Martian (2)
2) Tom McCarthy/Spotlight (1)
3) Alejandro Inarritu/The Revenant (3)
4) George Miller/Mad Max: Fury Road (4)
5) Adam McKay/The Big Short (6)

6) Todd Haynes/Carol (5)
7) Steven Spielberg/Bridge of Spies (6)
8) Lenny Abrahamson/Room (7)
9) F. Gary Gray/Straight Outta Compton (NR)
10) Denis Villenueve/Sicario (NR)

Hot: McKay, Gray, Villenueve
Not: Tarantino and Crowley

Comment:  Adam McKay is so hot that you need to expect he gets a nomination on Thursday morning.  If that happens, who gets bumped?  The FAC suggests its Haynes.  This category seems really bunched through the top seven spots and even Abrahamson and Gray could surprise.


1) Spotlight (1)
2) The Big Short (8)
3) The Martian (2)
4) The Revenant (3)
5) Mad Max: Fury Road (7)
6) Bridge of Spies (9)
7) Carol (6)
8) Brooklyn (5)

9) Room (4)
10) Straight Outta Compton (NR)
11) Inside Out (10)
12) Sicario (NR)

Hot: The Big Short, Mad Max: Fury Road, Bridge of Spies, Straight Outta Compton and Sicario
Not: Brooklyn, Room, Steve Jobs, The Hateful Eight

Comment: The fluidity and uncertainty of so much of this in this year's Oscar race is underlined by the presence of nine different films listed above as either hot or not.  It's crazy to be this close to nomination day and still have this lack of clarity.

If The FAC is 100% accurate  (bahahahaha)...then these statements will be true tomorrow morning:

Telluride films will earn 30 (28 for TFF #42 and 2 for TFF #41) nominations (with another 16 possible).

Carol will lead all Telluride films with eight nominations: Best Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Costume and Score.  It has two other possibilities: Best Direction and a switch of Rooney Mara from Supporting to Lead Actress for a maximum of nine nominations.

For a good long while, I thought Carol would lead the tally board on Oscar nomination morning but it looks like that honor will go to Mad Max: Fury Road...see below...

Spotlight will get five nominations: Best Picture, Director, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay and Film Editing (although that's pretty iffy).  It has the possibility of another three nominations; two for Supporting Actor and Score.

Steve Jobs will get three nominations: Best Actor, Supporting Actress and Adapted Screenplay.  It has a shot an additional nomination four Original Score.

Room will be only nominated twice:  Best Actress and Adapted Screenplay.  Room is also possible for Picture, Director, Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress.

TFF films that will get single nominations but have a shot at more include:

Black Mass: Nomination for Makeup/Hair and Johnny Depp might still sneak into the Best Actor race.

Anomalisa: Nomination for Best Animated Feature and a shot at Best Adapted Screenplay.

Son of Saul: Nomination for Best Foreign Film and a possibility for Best Cinematography.

Single nominations with no additional possibilities predicted by The FAC include:

He Named Me Malala: Best Documentary Feature
The Look of Silence: Best Documentary Feature (TFF #41)
Viva: Best Foreign Language Film
Idris Elba/Beasts of No Nation: Best Supporting Actor
Michael Shannon/99 Homes (TFF #41) : Best Supporting Actor
Sanjay's Super Team: Best Animated Short
Day One: Best Live Action Short
Everything Will Be Fine: Best Live Action Short

The only other feature film nomination possibility looks to be Suffragette for Best Costumes.
Other shorts possibilities are Prologue and Carface which are both animated shorts.

I'll be posting more later today as MTFB/FAC provides links to the final Oscar predictions of various experts so. check back here from time to time over the next 24 hours.  As mentioned above, I'll post an Oscar/Telluride analysis sometime around midday tomorrow.

What's your Oscar thinking???

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