Thursday, January 14, 2016

Oscar Nominations 2016 Analysis...Telluride and Beyond...


Please refer to the previous post on this site for a complete list of Oscar nominations.

Let's talk Telluride Oscar films first...

T-ride #42 films scored 26 nominations today with 27th coming for a TFF #41 film.  Almost exactly the average over the past few years that I have been following Oscar's relationship with the Telluride Film Festival.  Here's the list of Telluride films and nominations:

Spotlight leads the way with six nominations: Best Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Supporting Actor (Mark Ruffalo), Supporting Actress (Rachel McAdams) and Film Editing.

Carol also had six nominations: Best Actress (Cate Blanchett), Best Supporting Actress (Rooney Mara), Cinematography, Score, and Costumes.  Carol missed out on a number of nominations it was thought to be a possibility for.  The FAC had it getting eight nominations.

Room had four nominations: Best Picture, a surprise Best Director nom, Best Actress and Adapted Screenplay.

Steve Jobs had two nominations for acting: Michael Fassbender for Lead Male and Kate Winslet for Supporting Actress.

Five other feature films were single-nominated:

45 Years: Best Actress for Charlotte Rampling.
Anomalisa: Best Animated Feature
Son of Saul: Best Foreign Language Film
Winter on Fire: Best Documentary
The Look of Silence: Best Documentary (TFF#41)

And four short films that played TFF #42 were nominated:

For Best Animated Short: Sanjay's Super Team and Prologue
and for Best Live Action Short: Day One and Everything Will Be Okay.

The FAC goes 95 out of 121 in predicting nominations for a 78.5% rate...slightly better than my past averages...and as weird and fluid as this year has been, I'm surprised The FAC did that well.

The FAC's best categories: Actor, Actress, Supporting Actress Live Action Short and Cinematography in which I went 5 for 5.

The worst categories: Best Original Song, Animated Feature, Production Design, Supporting Actor, Documentary Feature, Foreign Language Film and Visual Effects in all of which I was 3 of 5.

Of the categories where The FAC missed a nominee, eight of those categories had the #6 FAC pick as a nominee (#9 in Best Picture for Room).  Those categories: Best Picture, Documentary, Foreign Language Film, Original Song, Animated Short, Adapted Screenplay, Original Screenplay and Supporting Actor.

Now on to general Oscar news and thoughts...

The Revenant leads all films with a whopping 12 nominations (I had it getting eight).  It really over performed.  The Golden Globe love last Sunday was telling.

Mad Max: Fury Road picked up a second best 10 nominations...exactly the number The FAC had predicted.

Other major film nomination totals included:

The Martian with seven including Best Picture, Actor and Adapted Screenplay but NOT for Ridley Scott's Direction.

Bridge of Spies with five including Best Picture,  Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay.

The Big Short with five including Best Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay and Supporting Actor.

Star Wars; The Force Awakens with five..all technicals.

The Danish Girl with four including Actor and Supporting Actress.

Three nominations apiece went to The Hateful Eight, Sicario and Brooklyn (including a Best Picture nomination).

Ex Machina and Inside Out each received two nominations.

Surprises today:  No Ridley Scott for Best Director for The Martian
The strength of The Revenant including a fairly surprising Supporting Actor nomination for Tom Hardy.

Winter on Fire's Documentary nomination.

Lenny Abrahamson's directing nom for Room.

No Aaron Sorkin nomination for Steve Jobs.

More to come with links to other expert analysis later in the day.

No comments: