This week will be a little different as I will post an Oscar nomination FAC on Wednesday with the compilation of all 24 Oscar categories. Thursday's regular post will happen but will be later in the day than usual as I will put together a post that is Telluride-centric and that will take a bot of time after the nominations are announced. It ought to be interesting and fun.
And so...to The FAC updates of major categories and a look at the short film categories as well.
For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:
Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood
You may have noticed the absence of Peter Knegt from Indiewire. He has left that website and consequently, it appears that Indiewire has doubled up on Anne Thompson's predictions.
The positions that these possible nominees had in our last look at these categories is indicated in parenthesis.
TFF #42 films are in Bold.
1) Spotlight (1)
2) The Big Short (8)
3) The Martian (2)
4) The Revenant (3)
5) Mad Max: Fury Road (7)
6) Bridge of Spies (9)
7) Carol (6)
8) Brooklyn (5)
9) Room (4)
10) Straight Outta Compton (NR)
11) Inside Out (10)
12) Sicario (NR)
Hot: The Big Short, Mad Max: Fury Road, Bridge of Spies, Straight Outta Compton and Sicario
Not: Brooklyn, Room, Steve Jobs, The Hateful Eight
Comment: The fluidity and uncertainty of so much of this in this year's Oscar race is underlined by the presence of nine different films listed above as either hot or not. It's crazy to be this close to nomination day and still have this lack of clarity.
1) Ridley Scott/The Martian (2)
2) Tom McCarthy/Spotlight (1)
3) Alejandro Inarritu/The Revenant (3)
4) George Miller/Mad Max: Fury Road (4)
5) Todd Haynes/Carol (5)
6) Adam McKay (10)
7) Steven Spielberg/Bridge of Spies (6)
8) Lenny Abrahamson/Room (7)
9) F. Gary Gray/Straight Outta Compton (NR)
10) Denis Villenueve/Sicario (NR)
Hot: McKay, Gray, Villenueve
Not: Tarantino and Crowley
Comment: Adam McKay is so hot that you need to expect he gets a nomination on Thursday morning. If that happens, who gets bumped? The FAC suggests its Haynes. This category seems really bunched through the top seven spots and even Abrahamson and Gray could surprise.
1) Brie Larson/Room (1)
2) Saorise Ronan/Brooklyn (2)
3) Cate Blanchett/Carol (3)
4) Charlotte Rampling/45 Years (4)
5) Jennifer Lawrence/Joy (5)
6) Rooney Mara/Carol (6)
7) Helen Mirren/Woman in Gold (9)
8) Lily Tomlin/Grandma (8)
9) Charlize Theron/Mad Max:Fury Road (NR)
10) Maggie Smith/The Lady in the Van (NR)
Hot: Dame Helen, Theron and Dame Maggie
Not: Silverman and Mulligan
Comment: A "stable" category through the five nomination spots...BUT... what if Mara bumps Lawrence because the Academy isn't buying The Weinstien Company's campaign for her in Supporting? The same question could be asked about Alicia Vikander in The Danish Girl, who sits at #11 on the Best Actress FAC. That would/could turn both female acting categories on their heads.
What if there is enough bleed over for one or both women that one or both miss being nominated in either category (though Vikander has a real shot at getting in Supporting for Ex Machina...which is also, arguably a lead role as well)?
What are Oscars rules if one or both get enough votes for the same role to be nominated in either category? MAYHEM!
Thursday morning could be REALLY interesting.
1) Leonardo DiCaprio/The Revenant (1)
2) Bryan Cranston/Trumbo (5)
3) Michael Fassbender/Steve Jobs (2)
4) Eddie Redmayne/The Danish Girl (3)
5) Matt Damon/The Martian (4)
6) Johnny Depp/Black Mass (6)
7) Will Smith/Concussion (7)
8) Michael B. Jordan/Creed (NR)
9) Michael Caine/Youth (9)
10) Steve Carell/The Big Short (10)
Hot: Cranston, Jordan
Comment: It seems to me that this category might be locked with the top five.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1) Rooney Mara/Carol (3)
2) Kate Winslet/Steve Jobs (3)
3) Alicia Vikander/The Danish Girl (1)
4) Jennifer Jason Leigh/The Hateful Eight (4)
5) Rachel McAdams/Spotlight (5)
6) Helen Mirren/Trumbo (6)
7) Alicia Vikander/Ex Machina (10)
8) Jane Fonda/Youth (7)
9) Kristen Stewart/Clouds of Sils Maria (9)
10) Joan Allen/Room (NR)
Hot: Mara, Vikander (for Ex Machina) and Allen
Not: Vikander (for The Danish Girl) and Banks
Comment: Vikander drops here because she's picking up steam in the lead for category for the same role and the possibilities get even weirder. What if Vikander gets enough support to be nominated for both Danish AND Ex Machina in THIS category and misses in Lead? That could happen too.
My head hurts...
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Mark Rylance/Bridge of Spies (1)
2) Idris Elba/Beasts of No Nation (3)
3) Sylvester Stallone/Creed (2)
4) Christian Bale/The Big Short (9)
5) Michael Shannon/99 Homes (4) (TFF #41)
6) Mark Ruffalo/Spotlight (8)
7) Jacob Tremblay/Room (5)
8) Michael Keaton/Spotlight (6)
9) Paul Dano/Love and Mercy (7)
10) Benicio Del Toro/Sicario (NR)
Hot: Bale, Ruffalo and Del Toro
Not: Tremblay, Keaton, Dano and Hardy
Comment: Rylance is possibly your only sure bet in this category, Elba and Stallone are very likely...but I wouldn't even call them locks at this point.
From these six major categories, if The FAC is 100% on the money, Telluride films would garner 13 nominations with another eight possibilities.
AND THE SHORT FILM CATEGORIES...
Wherein only four of my normal sources are publicly on record: Tapley, Stone, Magidson and Rogers:
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
1) Sanjay's Super Team
2) We Can't Live Without the Cosmos
3) World of Tomorrow
4) Bear Story
5) If I Was God
7) Love in the Time of March Madness
8) An Object at Rest
9) My Home
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
1) Ave Maria
3) Day One
5) Everything Will Be Fine
6) Bad Hunter
7) The Free Man
8) Winter Light
9) Bis Gliech
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
1) Claude Lanzman: Spectres of the Shoah
2) Body Team 12
3) A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
4) Last Day of Freedom
5) 50 Feet from Syria
7) My Enemy, My Brother
8) Starting Point
9) The Testimony
10) Chau, Beyond the Lines
In these "Shorts" categories, if The FAC is 100% accurate, Telluride films would nab three nominations with another two possibilities.
GOLDEN GLOBE RESULTS AND TELLURIDE
The 2016 edition of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association;s Golden Globe Awards is in the books and offered up a surprise or two throughout the evening.
Telluride #42 films were nominated in 10 of 14 feature film categories and ended the night having won four: TFF #42 winners were Steve Jobs winning two Globes for Screenplay (Aaron Sorkin) and Best Supporting Actress-Kate Winslet. Brie Larson won Best Actress-Drama for Room and Son of Saul won Best Foreign Film.
The big winner of the night was The Revenant which won three Globes for Best Picture-drama, Best Direction (Alejandro Inarritu) and Best Actor-Drama-Leonardo DiCaprio.
Spotlight and Carol, both with multiple Globe nominations came up empty-handed. They had eight nominations between them. Overall, TFF #42 (and 41) had a combined 19 nominations.
Best Film: Comedy-The Martian
Best Actor: Comedy-Matt Damon/The Martian (The Martian, The Revenant and Steve Jobs were the only multiple Globe winner)
Best Actress: Comedy-Jennifer Lawrence/Joy
Best Animated Film: Inside Out
Best Supporting Actor: Sylvester Stallone/Creed
Best Score: The Hateful Eight
Best Song: Writing's on the Wall/Spectre
Does this mean The Revenant may be a stronger player in the Best Picture race? Possibly. It will had to have gotten nominated first and Oscar nomination balloting ended Friday. As you can see above, The FAC analysis suggests it will be nominated for Best Picture, Actor and Director.
The Directors Guild announces their nominees on Tuesday. Perhaps that will tell us something.
BAFTA NOMINATIONS AND TELLURIDE
BAFTA (British Academy of Film and Television Sciences) nominations were announced on Friday and Telluride films earned 22 nominations lead by Carol, which also lead all films, along with Bridge of Spies, with the most nominations-nine. Those nominations might indicate that both of those films are in somewhat stronger positions than previously thought in as far as The Oscar Best Picture race is concerned. Meanwhile, Spotlight, thought to be the nominal Oscar front runner, ended up with a meager three BAFTA nominations.
The Telluride films and their BAFTA nominations are:
Carol (9): Best Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Makeup and Costumes.
Spotlight (3): Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Ruffalo) and Original Screenplay
Steve Jobs (3): Best Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay
Room (2): Best Actress and Adapted Screenplay
Single nominations for:
Beasts of No Nation: Best Supporting Actor
45 Years: Best British Film (weirdly, Charlotte Rampling missed out on Best Actress)
Wild Tales (TFF #41): Best Film Not in the English Language
He Named Me Malala: Best Documentary
Sherpa: Best Documentary
Complete BAFTA coverage is here:
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