Thursday, October 1, 2015

The FAC Looks at Supporting and Screenplays / New Clips from "Suffragette" / "Heart of a Dog" Poster / New Trailer for "The Revenant"

Welcome to the first Thursday in October...


Continuing what we started with last Monday's post, here is the first FAC review of where the Oscar field is in the categories of Supporting Actress and Actor as well as Adapted and Original Screenplay.

I collate the publicly posted predictions of some of best Oscar experts in the business and then crunch the numbers to come up with The FAC consensus.  The sources I am using at this point are:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

TFF #42 films are in Bold.


1) Kate Winslet/Steve Jobs
2) Rooney Mara/Carol
3) Jennifer Jason Leigh/The Hateful Eight
4) Alicia Vikander/The Danish Girl
5) Rachel McAdams/Spotlight
6) Elizabeth Banks/Love and Mercy
7) Jane Fonda/Youth
8) Kristen Stewart/Clouds of Sils Maria
9) Joan/Allen/Room
10) Julie Walters/Brooklyn

Comment: Supporting Actress is a strong TFF #42 category with four possibilities and three of the top five spots occupied by TFF #42 women/films.  Additionally, Leigh is Telluride connected as T-ride served as the home base for the bulk of filming for "The Hateful Eight" and Banks is in Telluride frequenter/supporter Bill Pohlad's "Love and Mercy".


1) Michael Keaton/Spotlight
2) Mark Ruffalo/Spotlight
3) Tom Hardy/The Revenant
4) Idris Elba/Beasts of No Nation
5) Mark Rylance/Bridge of Spies
6) Benicio Del Toro/Sicario
7) Paul Dano/Love and Mercy
8) Joel Edgerton/Black Mass
9) Harvey Keitel/Youth
10) Samuel L. Jackson/The Hateful Eight

Comment: Perhaps this year's most competitive major category with a number of question marks.  Is Oscar going to reward Keaton after his near miss for "Birdman" last year?  Does "Spotlight" really land two nominations in the same category?  Can either Jeff Daniels (who is one of my two favorites that are possible nominees for this category; the other is a real longshot-Peter Saarsgard in "Black Mass") or Seth Rogen get enough traction to get into the game from "Steve Jobs"?

The field is crowded and likely to be the most fun for the duration of the season.


1) Steve Jobs
2) Carol
3) Room
4) The Revenant
5) Brooklyn
6) The Martian
7) The Danish Girl
8) Beasts of No Nation
9) 45 Years
10) The Big Short

Comment: Lots of TFF #42 love here with half the list coming from films at last month's fest.


1) Spotlight
2) Inside Out
3) The Hateful Eight
4) Joy
5) Bridge of Spies
6) Youth
7) Sicario
8) Ex Machina
9) Love and Mercy
10) Son of Saul

Comment:  Today's least Telluride-centric category with only one likely nomination and an outside chance at a second.

Total Telluride nominations if these initial projections are correct in these four categories: 10 with another five possibilities.


The Playlist is up this week with five new clips from Sarah Gavron's "Suffragette"  If you missed the film at Telluride or if you want to revisit the film, that post is here:

Also included are a number of new character posters for the film.  One of those is posted above.


Speaking of posters, Laurie Anderson's "Heart of a Dog" has a new one.  The film was well recieved last month in Telluride.  Indiewire has the coverage here:


OK.."The Revenant" is not a Telluride 2015 film but it probably would have been had it been completed in time.  Additionally, the Alejandro Inarritu film is consdered, at least at this point, to be the strongest Best Picture challenger that will not play any festival (AFI Fest looks like it has locked down all of its prime presentation slots).  For those reasons, and the fact that its first trailer was amazing, it will continue to get attention as we move toward the end of the year and its Dec. 25 release date.

Keeping the fires of interest burning this week was the release of a second trailer.  Here it is via YouTube:

HitFix covered the story of the new trailer release here:

More on Monday...

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