The FAC: Supporting Players and Screenplays / The Independent Spirit Nominations and Telluride

Good Thanksgiving Day to everyone and thanks for reading...


THE FAC: SUPPORTING PLAYERS AND SCREENPLAYS

I ran the last FAC analysis of the Supporting Acting  and Screenplay categories on Oct. 26th so here;s the latest status for those categories.

For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Peter Knegt/Indiewire
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

The positions that these possible nominees had in our last look at these categories is indicated in parenthesis.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Alicia Vikander/The Danish Girl (1)
2) Rooney Mara/Carol (2)
3) Kate Winslet/Steve Jobs (3)
4) Jane Fonda/Youth (5)
5) Jennifer Jason Leigh/The Hateful Eight (4)

6) Elizabeth Banks/Love and Mercy (7)
7) Rachel McAdams/Spotlight (6)
8) Joan Allen/Room (8)
9) Julie Walters/Brooklyn (9)
10) Jessica Chastain/The Martian (NR)

Hot: Chastain
Not: Kristen Stewart/Clouds of Sils Maria
Comment: Chastain's jump onto the list might signal the strength of "The Martian" while the resilience of Vikander suggests that my theory that "Danish Girl" is weak may be compeltely off. Additionally, Winslet stays steady, so "Steve Jobs" may not be as weak as a lot of people have been thinking.  Finally, Rooney Mara's Indie Spirit nomination in the lead category might signal that she could move out of this category come Oscar nomination morning.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Mark Ruffalo/Spotlight (3)
2) Michael Keaton/Spotlight (1)
3) Mark Rylance/Bridge of Spies (4)
4) Tom Hardy/The Revenant (2)
5) Jacob Tremblay/Room (6)

6) Paul Dano/Love and Mercy
7) Bencio Del Toro/Sicario (8)
8) Sylvester Stallone/Creed (NR)
9) Idris Elba/Beasts of No Nation (5)
10) Harvey Keitel/Youth (10)

Hot: Ruffalo and Stallone
Not: Hardy, Elba and Joel Edgerton/Black Mass-who dropped off the top ten.
Comment:  The big story here is there serious emergence of Stallone as a player in the category.  As I write this on Thanksgiving morning, "Creed" is reportedly opened to banging box office and the reviews have been good.  Lookout for Stallone!

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Steve Jobs (1)
2) Room (3)
3) Brooklyn (2)
4) The Martian (7)
5) The Revenant (4)

6) Anomalisa (6)
7) Carol (5)
8) The Big Short (9)
9) The Danish Girl (8)
10) 45 Years (NR)

Hot: "The Martian" and "45 Years"
Not: "Carol" and "Beats of No Nation"
Comment: "Beasts falls out of the top ten.  It'll be interesting to see if it gets a boost from its Indy Spirit nominations (see below)


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Spotlight (1)
2) Inside Out (2)
3) The Hateful Eight (4)
4) Bridge of Spies (5)
5) Joy (3)

6) Youth (6)
7) Sicario (7)
8) Love and Mercy (9)
9) Son of Saul (8)
10) Trainwreck (NR)

Hot: "Trainwreck"
Not: "Joy" and "Suffragette" which drops way off the top ten list.
Comment:"Spotlight" in this category is the only leader in any of the dozen categories that The FAC has looked at over these past three months since Telluride concluded to hit a perfect score.


If The FAC is 100% accurate, TFF #42 films would earn seven nominations in these four categories and have the potential for another seven.


INDEPENDENT SPIRIT AWARDS

The Independent Spirit Awards nominations were announced earlier this week and Telluride was very well represented. Telluride films that scored nominations were:

"Carol" (6 nominations, the most of any film): Best Feature, Director, Screenplay, Best Lead Actress for both Cate Blanchett and Rooney Mara, and Cinematography.

"Beasts of No Nation (5): Best Feature, Director, Lead Actor (Abraham Attah),  Supporting Actor (Elba) and Cinematography.

"Spotlight" (4 plus a special honor): Best Feature, Director, Screenplay and Editing.  "Spotlight" will also receive the Robert Altman Award for Ensemble Acting.

Anomalisa (4): Best Feature, Director, Screenplay and Supporting Actress (Jennifer Jason Leigh).

"Room" (3): Best Lead Female (Larson), First Screenplay and Editing.

"Heart of a Dog" was nominated for Best Documentary.

"Son of Saul" was nominated as Best International Film.

Michael Shannon picked up a Best Supporting Actor nomination for TFF #41 film "99 Homes".   TFF #41 was also represented by a Best Documentary nomination for Joshua Oppenheimer's "The Look of Silence".

The complete list of nominations and analysis can be found via these links to Variety, Awards Daily, Indiewire and Thompson on Hollywood:

http://variety.com/2015/film/news/spirit-awards-nominees-2016-carol-1201647728/

http://www.awardsdaily.com/2015/11/24/unpacking-the-spirit-award-nominations-what-they-might-mean-for-the-oscar-race/

http://www.indiewire.com/article/carol-spotlight-and-beasts-of-no-nation-lead-31st-film-independent-spirit-awards-nominees-20151124

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/what-the-indie-spirit-nominations-tell-us-about-the-oscars-20151124



That's do for Turkey Day!  More to come on Monday.  Have a safe, happy and healthy Thanksgiving weekend...

Trailers for TFF #42 Films / Danny Boyle Talks Career / TFF #42 Reports from Friends / Future Telluride: "Downsizing" Moves Forward

Good Monday to All...

TRAILERS FOR TFF #42 FILMS

New trailers have been released for Laurie Anderson's "Heart of a Dog" and Kent Jones' "Hitchcock/Truffaut.

"Heart of a Dog" trailer via YouTube

"Hitchcock/Truffaut" trailer via YouTube

The Film Stage has stories for the release of both trailers:

http://thefilmstage.com/trailer/trailer-for-laurie-andersons-intimate-documentary-heart-of-a-dog/

http://thefilmstage.com/trailer/trailer-for-hitchcocktruffaut-explores-the-career-of-two-legendary-directors/

DANNY BOYLE TALKS HIS CAREER

Variety/InContention's Kristopher Tapley recently caught up with British director Danny Boyle whose "Steve Jobs" first screened at Telluride last month and over the weekend was taking the New York Film Festival by storm.

Boyle spoke about his films and what he has learned from each.  Here's the story:

http://variety.com/2015/film/in-contention/danny-boyle-on-lessons-learned-from-shallow-grave-to-steve-jobs-1201587287/


TFF #42 REPORTS FROM FRIENDS

You may have read Kenny Miles Telluride 2015 report in the Sept. 21 MTFB post.  That was Kenny's report for TheMovieBlog.  He has a longer take up at FilmFad.com and I thought I'd pass it along:

http://www.filmfad.com/telluride-film-fest-reflections-5-oscar-buzz-movies-watch/

Additionally, Rick Schmidt, whom I met at Telluride in 2014 also has published his take on Telluride 2015 at hometheaterhifi.com and that's linked here as well.  Relive your TFF #42 experience through theirs here:

http://www.filmfad.com/telluride-film-fest-reflections-5-oscar-buzz-movies-watch/

http://hometheaterhifi.com/features/show-reports-film-festivals-concerts/telluride-film-festival-2015/


FUTURE TELLURIDE: "DOWNSIZING" MOVES FORWARD

Alexander Payne's next project is moving closer to reality as it is reported that "Downsizing" will be handled by Paramount.  The film is said to be starring Matt Damon and Reese Witherspoon.  The reports from Variety and The Hollywood Reporter say that the film will shoot in 2016 and be aimed at a late 2017 release which sounds to me like a real possibility for TFF #44!

Here's the lowdown form Variety and The Hollywood Reporter:


http://variety.com/2015/film/news/paramount-alexander-payne-downsizing-matt-damon-1201608948/

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/alexander-payne-reteams-paramount-matt-829220


That's a wrap for the first Monday in October.

And don't be afraid to contact me:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to

Michael's Telluride Film Blog's Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/pages/Michaels-Telluride-Film-Blog-and-The-Film-Awards-Clearinghouse/107846269309712

The FAC Looks at Supporting and Screenplays / New Clips from "Suffragette" / "Heart of a Dog" Poster / New Trailer for "The Revenant"

Welcome to the first Thursday in October...


THE FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE LOOKS AT SUPPORTING AND SCREENPLAYS

Continuing what we started with last Monday's post, here is the first FAC review of where the Oscar field is in the categories of Supporting Actress and Actor as well as Adapted and Original Screenplay.

I collate the publicly posted predictions of some of best Oscar experts in the business and then crunch the numbers to come up with The FAC consensus.  The sources I am using at this point are:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

1) Kate Winslet/Steve Jobs
2) Rooney Mara/Carol
3) Jennifer Jason Leigh/The Hateful Eight
4) Alicia Vikander/The Danish Girl
5) Rachel McAdams/Spotlight
6) Elizabeth Banks/Love and Mercy
7) Jane Fonda/Youth
8) Kristen Stewart/Clouds of Sils Maria
9) Joan/Allen/Room
10) Julie Walters/Brooklyn

Comment: Supporting Actress is a strong TFF #42 category with four possibilities and three of the top five spots occupied by TFF #42 women/films.  Additionally, Leigh is Telluride connected as T-ride served as the home base for the bulk of filming for "The Hateful Eight" and Banks is in Telluride frequenter/supporter Bill Pohlad's "Love and Mercy".

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Michael Keaton/Spotlight
2) Mark Ruffalo/Spotlight
3) Tom Hardy/The Revenant
4) Idris Elba/Beasts of No Nation
5) Mark Rylance/Bridge of Spies
6) Benicio Del Toro/Sicario
7) Paul Dano/Love and Mercy
8) Joel Edgerton/Black Mass
9) Harvey Keitel/Youth
10) Samuel L. Jackson/The Hateful Eight


Comment: Perhaps this year's most competitive major category with a number of question marks.  Is Oscar going to reward Keaton after his near miss for "Birdman" last year?  Does "Spotlight" really land two nominations in the same category?  Can either Jeff Daniels (who is one of my two favorites that are possible nominees for this category; the other is a real longshot-Peter Saarsgard in "Black Mass") or Seth Rogen get enough traction to get into the game from "Steve Jobs"?

The field is crowded and likely to be the most fun for the duration of the season.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Steve Jobs
2) Carol
3) Room
4) The Revenant
5) Brooklyn
6) The Martian
7) The Danish Girl
8) Beasts of No Nation
9) 45 Years
10) The Big Short


Comment: Lots of TFF #42 love here with half the list coming from films at last month's fest.


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Spotlight
2) Inside Out
3) The Hateful Eight
4) Joy
5) Bridge of Spies
6) Youth
7) Sicario
8) Ex Machina
9) Love and Mercy
10) Son of Saul

Comment:  Today's least Telluride-centric category with only one likely nomination and an outside chance at a second.


Total Telluride nominations if these initial projections are correct in these four categories: 10 with another five possibilities.


NEW CLIPS FROM "SUFFRAGETTE"

The Playlist is up this week with five new clips from Sarah Gavron's "Suffragette"  If you missed the film at Telluride or if you want to revisit the film, that post is here:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-5-clips-new-characters-posters-for-suffragette-starring-carey-mulligan-meryl-streep-more-20150930

Also included are a number of new character posters for the film.  One of those is posted above.



"HEART OF A DOG" POSTER

Speaking of posters, Laurie Anderson's "Heart of a Dog" has a new one.  The film was well recieved last month in Telluride.  Indiewire has the coverage here:

http://www.indiewire.com/article/exclusive-poster-for-heart-of-a-dog-might-break-your-human-heart-20150930


NEW TRAILER FOR "THE REVENANT"

OK.."The Revenant" is not a Telluride 2015 film but it probably would have been had it been completed in time.  Additionally, the Alejandro Inarritu film is consdered, at least at this point, to be the strongest Best Picture challenger that will not play any festival (AFI Fest looks like it has locked down all of its prime presentation slots).  For those reasons, and the fact that its first trailer was amazing, it will continue to get attention as we move toward the end of the year and its Dec. 25 release date.

Keeping the fires of interest burning this week was the release of a second trailer.  Here it is via YouTube:

HitFix covered the story of the new trailer release here:

http://www.hitfix.com/motion-captured/leonardo-di-caprio-and-tom-hardy-clash-in-surreal-new-trailer-for-the-revenant

More on Monday...

And don't be afraid to contact me:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to

Michael's Telluride Film Blog's Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/pages/Michaels-Telluride-Film-Blog-and-The-Film-Awards-Clearinghouse/107846269309712

Final Ten Best (Plus) Before TFF #42 / Welcome Mr. Miles / The Odd Rumors / New Views of "Malala" / On Thursday...

It's the last Wednesday before the cinematic candy store opens for business.  After a full year of being separated, it's time to rejoin my fellow adherents to all things Telluride Film Festival and head the wagons west to the beautiful San Juan Mountains of southwest Colorado to bask in the filmic glory that will consume us Friday through Monday.  It's Labor Day weekend and for my wife and I, our tenth foray into TFF Territory.

It's what my hope for heaven looks, sounds and feels like...

See you in Telluride!

FINAL TEN BETS (PLUS) BEFORE TFF #42

From the most to least likely are:

1) Son of Saul
2) Suffragette
3) Carol
4) 45 Years
5) Black Mass
6) Steve Jobs
7) Beasts of No Nation
8) He Named Me Malala
9) Spotlight
10) Room


And then the "Plus"

11) Amazing Grace
12) Taxi
13) Marguerite
14) Anomalisa
15) Hitchcock/Truffaut

And now some "Plus-Plus"

16) Rams
17) Heart of a Dog
18) Tyrus
19) Ingrid Bergman: In Her Own Words
20) Queen of the Desert


WELCOME MR. MILES

I posted Monday that MTFB has its largest (and I think most distinguished) panel of industry professionals to offer their ratings for films that play this weekend at Telluride.  Here's that list again:

Nick Allen/Chicago Film Critics Assn. member/RogerEbert.com
Alex Billington/FirstShowing.net..
David Ehrlich/Time Out New York
Greg Ellwood/HitFix
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Eric Kohn/Indiewire
Tomris Laffly/Movie Mezzanine/Film Journal
Christopher Schiller/ScriptMag.com
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety/InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

Now add that august group of individuals Mr. Kenny Miles of the Denver Society of Film Critics and a contributor to TheMovieBlog.com and FilmFad.com.  Welcome to the crew Mr. Miles!

And this serves as a good spot to remind you, dear reader to add your voice to the chorus for "The People's Telluride".  Rate the films you see during the fest 1-5 (1=BAD, 5=GREAT) and send them to me through one of the contact methods (email, Twitter, Facebook, Blog Comment) .  I'll compile both sets of ratings and report back to you.


THE ODD RUMORS

The persistent but unlikely speculation that persists seems to be that Venice opener "Everest" will follow the pattern of the past two Venice openers "Gravity" and "Birdman" and make its way to Telluride.  Why is it unlikely?  The film is slated to play the Deauville Fest in France on Sept. 4. Though the cast is huge, I don't see how they pull off three major fest screenings in seven days max.

The other rumor is that Sundance sensation "Brooklyn" will show at The SHOW.  Now, that's just not very probable either.  A "Brooklyn" play would violate Telluride's fairly stringent policy of playing new features that have not yet appeared in North America as it played very well at Sundance.

I think some folks are seeing its "Canadian Premiere" designation at Toronto and assuming that automatically means Telluride.  Ummmm...nope,

And just last night The Wrap was reporting in its Oscar/Fall Fest Season post that "The Danish Girl" was likely to play Telluride.  Again, not likely.  For whatever reason, The Wrap was calling it a "Canadian Premiere" whereas the TIFF website very clearly has it as a North American Premiere.  So don't hold your breath.

Here's the link to The Wrap story:

http://www.thewrap.com/watch-out-oscar-awards-season-gets-jump-start-with-fall-film-festivals/


NEW VIEWS OF "MALALA"

One of the films I am looking toward with high anticipation is the Davis Guggenheim documentary "He Named Me Malala".  The story of Nobel Peace Prize winner Malala Yousafzai and her strength as a voice for equal education in a part of the world where that's a dangerous belief to hold enraptures me as a teacher.

I really am hoping that Malala might well be in Telluride this week and that I have the chance to thank her and tell her in person that I teach. My wife teaches.  My children teach.  My mother was school secretary and my father taught. It's the Patterson Family business so to meet this incredible human being who faced death for the belief that education was a value worth perusing and defending...yea, I'd like to tell her thank you.

Oh, and IMDb put up some new, exclusive pictures from the film yesterday, one of which graces this portion of the post.


ON THURSDAY...

We should, if all goes the way it has the past couple of years, have a lineup fairly early tomorrow morning.  Check here for that announcement.


Headed to Telluride...see you there.  Travel safely friends!

Please feel free to leave a comment or question here at the blog.

Email me at michael_speech@hotmail.com or mpgort@gmail.com

Tweet/Follow at me @Gort2 on Twitter

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McCarthy Reveals "Marguerite"? / You Must Remember This / Speaking of New York... / New Posters for Jobs and Suffragettes / Calling Your Inner Critic

Thursday is here and one week from today, I should be in Telluride...Eight days until the Fest begins!

THIS DISCLAIMER...Remember, I'm just guessing at this.  No guarantees here.


MC CARTHY REVEALS "MARGUERITE"?

Still from "Marguerite from the Venice Film Fest website

The Hollywood Reporter's Todd McCarthy posted a very interesting read yesterday about the prospective awards season and the fall film slate.  The tenor of the article is that, in McCarthy's view, the season seems a bit tepid.  He then details a rundown of a large number of films and their positioning mostly as regards Toronto and Venice.  If you follow the awards season, it's worth the time.

If you follow this space, you probably are looking for clues about what we could see next week and McCarthy seems to tell us/confirm that Xavier Giannoli's "Marguerite" will play TFF #42.  McCarthy writes near the end of the piece that, "Marguerite director Giannoli has let it be known that he was forced by Toronto to chose between it and Telluride; he went with the latter".

Sounds to me like the film, which will premiere in Venice's competition section on Sept. 4 is now a good bet to be on our schedules next week.

"Marguerite" is described as a film that is set in 1921 and follows a woman who loves to sing but whose talent doesn't match that desire.  The description for the Venice program says that the film is loosely based on the life of American Florence Foster Jenkins.

For your further perusal:

The Todd McCarthy piece:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/critics-notebook-tiff-venice-lineups-817950

"Marguerite's" IMDb profile:

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt4428788/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1

"Marguerite's" page from Venice's website:

http://www.labiennale.org/en/cinema/72nd-festival/line-up/off-sel/venezia72/marguerite.html


YOU MUST REMEMBER THIS

Dan Callahan writing at RogerEbert.com reminded us a couple of days ago that the celebration of the 100th anniversary of Ingrid Bergman's birth is being marked by a live presentation the week after Telluride in Brooklyn featuring Isabella Rosselini and Jeremy Irons.

We also believe after the announcement from NYFF from earlier this week that "Ingrid Bergman: In Her Own Words" has a real shot at the Telluride lineup (check MTFB from Tuesday, Aug. 25).

So...I move that TFF #42 combines all of this so that Isabella and Jeremy can have a solid dress rehearsal and bring this all together for our education and enjoyment next week.  Also, as I said Tuesday...bring Alicia Vikander too.  Can I get a "Second"?

You might enjoy Callahan's lengthy piece here:

http://www.rogerebert.com/interviews/you-must-remember-this



SPEAKING OF NEW YORK...

A couple of additional announcements yesterday continue to provide circumstantial evidence about films that I'm thinking are in the T-ride lineup.  NYFF announced the addition of "Son of Saul" as a special event as well as Laurie Anderson's "Heart of a Dog".  The lack of any delineation as to either film's premiere status is a tacit admission that both films will have their premiere within the United States somewhere else and Telluride is really the only candidate.  So it would seem the supposition that they'll play T-ride is further strengthened.

Here's the official announcement form the New York Film Fest:

http://www.filmlinc.org/nyff2015/daily/nyff53-special-events-and-revivals-revealed/


NEW POSTERS FOR JOBS AND SUFFRAGETTES

We got new art for two films that seem to be all but certain to play in the San Juans next week.  "Steve Jobs" and "Suffragette" both had new looks:

 Linked here is the FirstShowing story for "Steve Jobs" which also reports that the conventional wisdom beyond this space is that the film will play Telluride:


http://www.firstshowing.net/2015/new-poster-for-danny-boyles-steve-jobs-film-premiering-very-soon/


And this story for "Suffragette" from Entertainment Weekly:

http://www.ew.com/article/2015/08/25/exclusive-suffragette-poster-carey-mulligan



CALLING YOUR INNER CRITIC

To add your voice and film ratings for the films you see at Telluride and be a part of MTFB's annual "People's Telluride" ratings.  Rate the films you see next week on a 1-5 scale with 1 being "Ghastly" and 5 being perfection.  Send them in to the contact info below:


Please feel free to leave a comment or question here at the blog.

Email me at michael_speech@hotmail.com or mpgort@gmail.com

Tweet/Follow at me @Gort2 on Twitter

You can also message me on Facebook (and "Like" me too)

https://www.facebook.com/pages/Michaels-Telluride-Film-Blog-and-The-Film-Awards-Clearinghouse/107846269309712