Thursday, November 26, 2015

The FAC: Supporting Players and Screenplays / The Independent Spirit Nominations and Telluride

Good Thanksgiving Day to everyone and thanks for reading...


I ran the last FAC analysis of the Supporting Acting  and Screenplay categories on Oct. 26th so here;s the latest status for those categories.

For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Peter Knegt/Indiewire
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

The positions that these possible nominees had in our last look at these categories is indicated in parenthesis.


1) Alicia Vikander/The Danish Girl (1)
2) Rooney Mara/Carol (2)
3) Kate Winslet/Steve Jobs (3)
4) Jane Fonda/Youth (5)
5) Jennifer Jason Leigh/The Hateful Eight (4)

6) Elizabeth Banks/Love and Mercy (7)
7) Rachel McAdams/Spotlight (6)
8) Joan Allen/Room (8)
9) Julie Walters/Brooklyn (9)
10) Jessica Chastain/The Martian (NR)

Hot: Chastain
Not: Kristen Stewart/Clouds of Sils Maria
Comment: Chastain's jump onto the list might signal the strength of "The Martian" while the resilience of Vikander suggests that my theory that "Danish Girl" is weak may be compeltely off. Additionally, Winslet stays steady, so "Steve Jobs" may not be as weak as a lot of people have been thinking.  Finally, Rooney Mara's Indie Spirit nomination in the lead category might signal that she could move out of this category come Oscar nomination morning.


1) Mark Ruffalo/Spotlight (3)
2) Michael Keaton/Spotlight (1)
3) Mark Rylance/Bridge of Spies (4)
4) Tom Hardy/The Revenant (2)
5) Jacob Tremblay/Room (6)

6) Paul Dano/Love and Mercy
7) Bencio Del Toro/Sicario (8)
8) Sylvester Stallone/Creed (NR)
9) Idris Elba/Beasts of No Nation (5)
10) Harvey Keitel/Youth (10)

Hot: Ruffalo and Stallone
Not: Hardy, Elba and Joel Edgerton/Black Mass-who dropped off the top ten.
Comment:  The big story here is there serious emergence of Stallone as a player in the category.  As I write this on Thanksgiving morning, "Creed" is reportedly opened to banging box office and the reviews have been good.  Lookout for Stallone!


1) Steve Jobs (1)
2) Room (3)
3) Brooklyn (2)
4) The Martian (7)
5) The Revenant (4)

6) Anomalisa (6)
7) Carol (5)
8) The Big Short (9)
9) The Danish Girl (8)
10) 45 Years (NR)

Hot: "The Martian" and "45 Years"
Not: "Carol" and "Beats of No Nation"
Comment: "Beasts falls out of the top ten.  It'll be interesting to see if it gets a boost from its Indy Spirit nominations (see below)


1) Spotlight (1)
2) Inside Out (2)
3) The Hateful Eight (4)
4) Bridge of Spies (5)
5) Joy (3)

6) Youth (6)
7) Sicario (7)
8) Love and Mercy (9)
9) Son of Saul (8)
10) Trainwreck (NR)

Hot: "Trainwreck"
Not: "Joy" and "Suffragette" which drops way off the top ten list.
Comment:"Spotlight" in this category is the only leader in any of the dozen categories that The FAC has looked at over these past three months since Telluride concluded to hit a perfect score.

If The FAC is 100% accurate, TFF #42 films would earn seven nominations in these four categories and have the potential for another seven.


The Independent Spirit Awards nominations were announced earlier this week and Telluride was very well represented. Telluride films that scored nominations were:

"Carol" (6 nominations, the most of any film): Best Feature, Director, Screenplay, Best Lead Actress for both Cate Blanchett and Rooney Mara, and Cinematography.

"Beasts of No Nation (5): Best Feature, Director, Lead Actor (Abraham Attah),  Supporting Actor (Elba) and Cinematography.

"Spotlight" (4 plus a special honor): Best Feature, Director, Screenplay and Editing.  "Spotlight" will also receive the Robert Altman Award for Ensemble Acting.

Anomalisa (4): Best Feature, Director, Screenplay and Supporting Actress (Jennifer Jason Leigh).

"Room" (3): Best Lead Female (Larson), First Screenplay and Editing.

"Heart of a Dog" was nominated for Best Documentary.

"Son of Saul" was nominated as Best International Film.

Michael Shannon picked up a Best Supporting Actor nomination for TFF #41 film "99 Homes".   TFF #41 was also represented by a Best Documentary nomination for Joshua Oppenheimer's "The Look of Silence".

The complete list of nominations and analysis can be found via these links to Variety, Awards Daily, Indiewire and Thompson on Hollywood:

That's do for Turkey Day!  More to come on Monday.  Have a safe, happy and healthy Thanksgiving weekend...

No comments: