THE FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE MAJOR CATEGORY THANKSGIVING UPDATE
Nearly a month has passed since our last snapshot of the four major Oscar categories and there have been some developments. "Steve Jobs" took a dive at the box office and that has definitely altered the view among Oscar experts regarding its chances in the Best Picture and Directing categories. "The Martian" appears to be coming on strong. Let's take a look.
For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:
Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood
TFF #42 films are in Bold.
The positions that these possible nominees had in our last look at these categories is indicated in parenthesis.
"Spotlight" trailer via YouTube
1) Spotlight (1)
2) The Revenant (3)
3) The Martian (12)
4) Room (5)
5) Bridge of Spies (6)
6) Brooklyn (4)
7) Joy (7)
8) Steve Jobs (2)
9) Inside Out (11)
10) Carol (10)
11) The Hateful Eight (9)
12) The Big Short (NR)
Hot: "The Martian", "Inside Out", "The Big Short"
Cold: "Brooklyn", Steve Jobs", "The Hateful Eight" and "The Danish Girl" which dropped off the list entirely.
Comment: "The Martian" change and the "Steve Jobs" box office debacle have really shaken this race up. I'm not so sure that "Jobs" is completely out of this as Fassbender still has a lot of Best Actor support (see below). At this point, I could see any of the top four films taking the big prize...and yes, I'm including "Room" in that assessment. People really love the film and its strength is reflected in Lenny Abrahamson's climb in the director's race and Brie Larson's support in the Best Actress race. Remember too, that it won the Toronto audience award and finished in the top spot in my collection of viewers' ratings for The People's Telluride.
"Room" trailer via YouTube
1) Tom McCarthy/Spotlight (1)
2) Alejandro Inarritu/The Revenant (3)
3) Ridley Scott/The Martian (7)
4) Steven Spielberg/Bridge of Spies (5)
5) Lenny Abrahamson/Room (NR)
6) David O. Russell/Joy (4)
7) George Miller/Mad Max: Fury Road (10)
8) Todd Haynes/Carol (8)
9) Danny Boyle/Steve Jobs (2)
10) Quentin Tarantino/The Hateful Eight (6)
Hot: Scott, Abrahamsom and Miller.
Cold: Russell, Boyle and Tom Hooper (Danish Girl)
Comment:Danny Boyle's fall also underscores the drop in prospects for "Steve Jobs" as Abrahamson's ascendance emphasizes the popularity of "Room". Also, "The Danish Girl" is taking a hit in both Picture and Directing categories. Eddie Redmayne still seems to be competitive in the Best Actor category (see below).
"Carol" trailer via YouTube
1) Brie Larson/Room (1)
2) Jennifer Lawrence/Joy (2)
3) Saorise Ronan/Brooklyn (3)
4) Cate Blanchett/Carol (4)
5) Charlotte Rampling/45 Years (6)
6) Carey Mulligan/Suffragette (5)
7) Blythe Danner/I'll See You in My Dreams (10)
8) Lily Tomlin/Grandma (7)
9) Maggie Smith/The Lady in the Van (9)
10) Cate Blanchett/Truth (8)
Cold: Blanchett in "Truth"
Comment: A remarkably steady category. Larson is the closest thing to a lock in any of the four major categories in a year where "locks" have been few and far between.
"Steve Jobs" trailer via YouTube
1) Leonardo DiCaprio/The Revenant (3)
2) Michael Fassbender/Steve Jobs (1)
3) Eddie Redmayne/The Danish Girl (2)
4) Johnny Depp/Black Mass (4)
5) Matt Damon/The Martian (6)
6) Michael Caine/Youth (5)
7) Will Smith/Concussion (8)
8) Tom Hanks/Bridge of Spies (7)
9) Ian McKellen/Mr. Holmes (9)
10) Steve Carell/The Big Short (10)
Cold: No one really.
Comment: Both Fassbender and Redmayne stay in the thick of the race despite their films having suffered some serious doubts in the Picture and Directing categories. The same could be said for Johnny Depp.
Currently, if The FAC is 100% accurate Telluride #42 films will get 10 nominations from these major categories with another four possibilities.
I'll update the Supporting and Screenplay categories on Thursday so come back for that.
The latest Oscar assessments in detail from the pros: Kristopher Tapley, Scott Feinberg and Sasha Stone:
TODD HAYNES INTERVIEWED BY GUS VAN SANT
Todd Haynes and Rooney Mara at the Patron's Brunch
For Issue Magazine, Todd Haynes sat down with film maker Gus Van Sant to talk about "Carol" and other topics. It's here:
That's a wrap for Monday...remember to come back for Thursday's MTFB for a look at where The FAC says we are in the Supporting Acting and Screenplay races.
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