Monday, November 30, 2015

The Cumulative FAC Recap (at This Point) / Oscar Matters: Podcasting Oscar / Interviews and Profiles: "Carol", "Suffragette", "Son of Saul", "Room", "Steve Jobs" and "Spotlight"

Welcome to Monday and here's hoping that everyone had a safe and joyful Thanksgiving holiday...


Over the past two weeks or so, I have posted the third update for the "Big Eight" Oscar categories (Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actress and Actor and Adapted and Original Screenplays) as well as four additional categories (Film Editing, Cinematography, Documentary Feature and Foreign Language Film).  I haven't yet tackled the other dozen categories that Oscar will reward in February (Animated Feature, Original Song and Score, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup/Hair, Visual Effects, Sound Mixing and Editing, and the Shorts: Live Action, Animation and Documentary).  Those will come later as we get closer to nomination time (Jan. 14).

As we find ourselves on the cusp of end-of-the-year lists of the best in film making (The National Board of Review announces their top films tomorrow while the New York Film Critics Circle announces on Wednesday, The Los Angeles critics announce this coming weekend), I thought it'd be useful to collect all twelve of the categories that have been posted here in the last two weeks in one post.  So here they are:

For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Peter Knegt/Indiewire
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

The positions that these possible nominees had in our last look at these categories is indicated in parenthesis.


"Spotlight" trailer via YouTube

1) Spotlight (1)
2) The Revenant (3)
3) The Martian (12)
4) Room (5)
5) Bridge of Spies (6)
6) Brooklyn (4)
7) Joy (7)
8) Steve Jobs (2)

9) Inside Out (11)
10) Carol (10)
11) The Hateful Eight (9)
12) The Big Short (NR)

Hot: "The Martian", "Inside Out", "The Big Short"
Cold: "Brooklyn", Steve Jobs", "The Hateful Eight" and "The Danish Girl" which dropped off the list entirely.
Comment:  "The Martian" change and the "Steve Jobs" box office debacle have really shaken this race up.  I'm not so sure that "Jobs" is completely out of this as Fassbender still has a lot of Best Actor support (see below).  At this point, I could see any of the top four films taking the big prize...and yes, I'm including "Room" in that assessment.  People really love the film and its strength is reflected in Lenny Abrahamson's climb in the director's race and Brie Larson's support in the Best Actress race.  Remember too, that it won the Toronto audience award and finished in the top spot in my collection of viewers' ratings for The People's Telluride.


"Room" trailer via YouTube

1) Tom McCarthy/Spotlight (1)
2) Alejandro Inarritu/The Revenant (3)
3) Ridley Scott/The Martian (7)
4) Steven Spielberg/Bridge of Spies (5)
5) Lenny Abrahamson/Room (NR)

6) David O. Russell/Joy (4)
7) George Miller/Mad Max: Fury Road (10)
8) Todd Haynes/Carol (8)
9) Danny Boyle/Steve Jobs (2)
10) Quentin Tarantino/The Hateful Eight (6)

Hot: Scott, Abrahamson and Miller.
Cold: Russell, Boyle and Tom Hooper (Danish Girl)
Comment:Danny Boyle's fall also underscores the drop in prospects for "Steve Jobs" as Abrahamson's ascendance emphasizes the popularity of "Room".  Also, "The Danish Girl" is taking a hit in both Picture and Directing categories.  Eddie Redmayne still seems to be competitive in the Best Actor category (see below).


"Carol" trailer via YouTube

1) Brie Larson/Room (1)
2) Jennifer Lawrence/Joy (2)
3) Saorise Ronan/Brooklyn (3)
4) Cate Blanchett/Carol (4)
5) Charlotte Rampling/45 Years (6)

6) Carey Mulligan/Suffragette (5)
7) Blythe Danner/I'll See You in My Dreams (10)
8) Lily Tomlin/Grandma (7)
9) Maggie Smith/The Lady in the Van (9)
10) Cate Blanchett/Truth (8)

Hot: Danner
Cold: Blanchett in "Truth"
Comment: A remarkably steady category.  Larson is the closest thing to a lock in any of the four major categories in a year where "locks" have been few and far between.


"Steve Jobs" trailer via YouTube

1) Leonardo DiCaprio/The Revenant (3)
2) Michael Fassbender/Steve Jobs (1)
3) Eddie Redmayne/The Danish Girl (2)
4) Johnny Depp/Black Mass (4)
5) Matt Damon/The Martian (6)

6) Michael Caine/Youth (5)
7) Will Smith/Concussion (8)
8) Tom Hanks/Bridge of Spies (7)
9) Ian McKellen/Mr. Holmes (9)
10) Steve Carell/The Big Short (10)

Hot: DiCaprio
Cold:  No one really.
Comment:  Both Fassbender and Redmayne stay in the thick of the race despite their films having suffered some serious doubts in the Picture and Directing categories.  The same could be said for Johnny Depp.


1) Alicia Vikander/The Danish Girl (1)
2) Rooney Mara/Carol (2)
3) Kate Winslet/Steve Jobs (3)
4) Jane Fonda/Youth (5)
5) Jennifer Jason Leigh/The Hateful Eight (4)

6) Elizabeth Banks/Love and Mercy (7)
7) Rachel McAdams/Spotlight (6)
8) Joan Allen/Room (8)
9) Julie Walters/Brooklyn (9)
10) Jessica Chastain/The Martian (NR)

Hot: Chastain
Not: Kristen Stewart/Clouds of Sils Maria
Comment: Chastain's jump onto the list might signal the strength of "The Martian" while the resilience of Vikander suggests that my theory that "Danish Girl" is weak may be completely off. Additionally, Winslet stays steady, so "Steve Jobs" may not be as weak as a lot of people have been thinking.  Finally, Rooney Mara's Indie Spirit nomination in the lead category might signal that she could move out of this category come Oscar nomination morning.


1) Mark Ruffalo/Spotlight (3)
2) Michael Keaton/Spotlight (1)
3) Mark Rylance/Bridge of Spies (4)
4) Tom Hardy/The Revenant (2)
5) Jacob Tremblay/Room (6)

6) Paul Dano/Love and Mercy
7) Bencio Del Toro/Sicario (8)
8) Sylvester Stallone/Creed (NR)
9) Idris Elba/Beasts of No Nation (5)
10) Harvey Keitel/Youth (10)

Hot: Ruffalo and Stallone
Not: Hardy, Elba and Joel Edgerton/Black Mass-who dropped off the top ten.
Comment:  The big story here is there serious emergence of Stallone as a player in the category.  As I write this on Thanksgiving morning, "Creed" is reportedly opened to banging box office and the reviews have been good.  Lookout for Stallone!


1) Steve Jobs (1)
2) Room (3)
3) Brooklyn (2)
4) The Martian (7)
5) The Revenant (4)

6) Anomalisa (6)
7) Carol (5)
8) The Big Short (9)
9) The Danish Girl (8)
10) 45 Years (NR)

Hot: "The Martian" and "45 Years"
Not: "Carol" and "Beats of No Nation"
Comment: "Beasts falls out of the top ten.  It'll be interesting to see if it gets a boost from its Indy Spirit nominations (see below)


1) Spotlight (1)
2) Inside Out (2)
3) The Hateful Eight (4)
4) Bridge of Spies (5)
5) Joy (3)

6) Youth (6)
7) Sicario (7)
8) Love and Mercy (9)
9) Son of Saul (8)
10) Trainwreck (NR)

Hot: "Trainwreck"
Not: "Joy" and "Suffragette" which drops way off the top ten list.
Comment:"Spotlight" in this category is the only leader in any of the dozen categories that The FAC has looked at over these past three months since Telluride concluded to hit a perfect score.


1) The Revenant
2) Spotlight
3) Mad Max: Fury Road
4) Bridge of Spies
5) Steve Jobs

6) The Martian
7) Joy
8) Sicario
9) The Hateful Eight
10) Jurassic Park

Comment: The category that has become semi-mythical in terms of its pairing with the eventual Best Picture winner seems to be among the top six films here.  Though, any of these ten could get in.


1) The Revenant
2) Sicario
3) Mad Max; Fury Road
4) Carol
5) Bridge of Spies

6) The Hateful Eight
7) The Martian
8) In the Heart of the Sea
9) The Danish Girl
10) Son of Saul

Comment:  The five nominees probably come from the top seven listed here.


1) Son of Saul
2) Labyrinth of Lies
3) Mustang
4) Second Mother
5) The Assassin

6) Rams
7) Viva
8) Goodnight Mommy
9) The Club
10) A Pigeon Sat on a Branch...

Comment:  This category is largely believed to be about narrowing the field down to the four films that eventually lose to "Son of Saul".  In a year where most categories are still fairly unpredictable, "Saul" might be the surest bet for Oscar of any film in any category.


1) Amy
2) The Look of Silence (TFF #41)
3) Going Clear
4) Best of Enemies
5) The Hunting Ground

6) Where Do We Invade Next?
7) He Named Me Malala
8) Listen to Me Marlon
9) Miss Simone
10) Cartel Land

Comment: Reflecting the sense that I got at Telluride this year, there's only one TFF #42 documentary that seems to have a shot this year and "Malala" is playing from behind.  TFF #41's "Look of Silence" looks solid.

If The FAC is 100% on the money, TFF #42 films would earn 22 nominations from these 12 categories with another 15 possibilities.

Since I started doing The FAC, Telluride films average 27 nominations each year.  This year looks like it should end up with about that number of nominations.


Here are links to the most popular and influential podcasts that focus on the Oscar Race including Oscar Poker with Sasha Stone ans Jeffrey Wells (Awards Daily and Hollywood Elsewhere), Screen Talk with Anne Thompson and Eric Kohn (Thompson on Hollywood and Indiewire), Awards Chatter with Scott Feinberg (The Hollywood Reporter), Erik Anderson (Awards Watch) and Oscar Predictions Smackdown with Tom O'Neill (Gold Derby) and Sasha Stone as his guest:


Here's the latest in Oscar prognostications for the best in the business both individually and collectively:

Individuals: Sasha Stone/Awards Daily, Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter, Kristopher Tapley/Variety's InContention:

And collectively from The Gurus of Gold and Gold Derby:








That'll do for this Monday.  Come back for more Telluride-centric awards coverage on Thursday...

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