Monday, October 26, 2015

The FAC Supporting and Screenplays October Update / Oscar Matters: Podcasts and Predictions / Todd Haynes on "Carol" and More / Future Telluride?: Coens and Clooney

Welcome back fro the weekend fellow wanderers...


Our first run through for these categories was three and a half weeks ago (Oct. 1) and as you might expect, some things have changed over that time.  Here's our latest snapshot of Best Supporting Actress and Actor and Adapted and Original Screenplays.

For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Peter Knegt/Indiewire
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

The positions that these possible nominees had in our last look at these categories is indicated in parenthesis.


1) Alicia Vikander/The Danish Girl (4)
2) Rooney Mara/Carol (2)
3) Kate Winslet/Steve Jobs (1)
4) Jennifer Jason Leigh/The Hateful Eight (3)
5) Jane Fonda/Youth

6) Rachel McAdams/Spotlight (5)
7) Elizabeth Banks/Love and Mercy (6)
8) Joan Allen/Room (9)
9) Julie Walters/Brooklyn (10)
10) Kristen Stewart/Clouds of Sils Maria (8)

Hot: Vikander and Fonda
Cold: Winslet and Stewart


The news that Alicia Vikander will be campaigned for Supporting Actress for "The Danish Girl" really boosted her profile in the last three weeks.  Also. it will be very interesting to see how the box office bad news from this past weekend for Danny Boyle's "Steve Jobs" will affect Winslet, Fassbender, Sorkin and the rest of the "Steve Jobs" Oscar prospects.


1) Michael Keaton/Spotlight (1)
2) Tom Hardy/The Revenant (3)
3) Mark Ruffalo/Spotlight (2)
4) Mark Rylance/Bridge of Spies (5)
5) Idris Elba/Beasts of No Nation (4)

6) Jacob Tremblay/Room (NR)
7) Paul Dano/Love and Mercy (7)
8) Benicio Del Toro/Sicario (6)
9) Joel Edgerton/Black Mass (8)
10) Harvey Keitel/Youth (9)

Hot: Tremblay
Cold: Del Toro and Samuel L. Jackson who dropped way out of the top ten.
Commnet: The last three weeks has seen a strong surge of belief that young Jacob Tremblay is a very serious candidate for an Oscar nomination.  I am still stumping for Jeff Daniels in "Steve Jobs" and Peter Sarsgaard in "Black Mass".


1) Steve Jobs (1)
2) Brooklyn (5)
3) Room (3)
4) The Revenant (4)
5) Carol (2)

6) The Martian (6)
7) Anomalisa (NR)
8) The Danish Girl (7)
9) The Big Short (10)
10) Beasts of No Nation (8)

Hot: "Brooklyn" and "Anomalisa".
Cold: "Carol", "Beasts of No Nation" and "45 Years".
Comment:  "Anomalisa" jumps onto the chart in a big way and might well be in the top five save for some still on-going confusion among some of the Oscar prognosticators about whether it's an Adapted or Original screenplay.  Also, "The Martian", "Carol" and "The Revenant" are very tightly bunched at the 4-5-6 spots.

As I said above concerning the Best Supporting Actress race, it'll be interesting to see if Aaron Sorkin's "Steve Jobs" screenplay will lose any steam the next time we check this category because of that film's dismal box office this past weekend.


1) Spotlight (1)
2) Inside Out (2)
3) Joy (4)
4) The Hateful Eight (3)
5) Bridge of Spies (5)

6) Youth (6)
7) Sicario (7)
8) Son of Saul (10)
9) Love and Mercy (9)
10) Suffragette (NR)

Hot: "Son of Saul" and "Suffragette".
Cold: "Ex Machina".
Comment: The top five are substantially ahead of the other scripts in this category.

Overall, if these predictions were 100% accurate, Telluride #42 films would see a total of  nine nominations in these categories with another eight possibilities.  Added to last Thursday's update of four categories (Picture, Director, Actress and Actor) the T-ride 2015 totals for these eight major categories would be 19 nominations and 11 other possibilities.



Here are links to awards season podcasts from Awards Watch, The Hollywood Reporter and Screentalk:


And here's the link to Sasha Stone's weekly (Friday) update of her Oscar predictions from Awards Daily:


Todd Haynes "Carol" continues to be a central part of the awards season discussion and so I have included this link to Rodrigo Perez's profile of the writer/director based on Haynes' appearance at the New York Film Festival.  That post is linked here from The Playlist:


George Clooney on the set of the Coen Brothers' "Hail Caesar"

We got word over the weekend that past Telluride participants George Clooney and The Coen Brothers ("The Descendants" for Clooney, "Inside Llewyn Davis" for The Coens) are planning to collaborate again but in a slightly different set of circumstances.

Clooney, who has an extensive history with the Coens ("O Brother, where Art Thou", "Intolerable Cruelty" and "Burn After Reading") and is starring in the upcoming "Hail Caesar" (set for release in early February) will apparently direct a Coens script that's been in development for more than a decade.  The film is currently titled "Suburbicon".

The SlashFilm report makes it sound as if the film could well begin shooting as early as next year.  Bring it to TFF #43 or 44, I say.

 Check that story from here:

That's all for Monday.  There'll be more on Thursday....

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