A month after the first Clearinghouse and things have changed somewhat in terms of the expectations for the upcoming Oscar race. Let's break it down...
This edition of the Clearinghouse utilizes publicly posted/accessible data from Awards Daily, Hollywood Elsewhere, Incontention at HitFix, Scott Feinberg at The Hollywood Reporter, Anne Thompson of Thompson on Hollywood, Dave Poland at Movie City News, Film Experience and Film Misery. Telluride #38 films are Bold!
BEST PICTURE:
1) The Artist
2) The Descendants
3) The Help
4) Moneyball
5) War Horse
6) Midnight in Paris
7) Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
8) The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
9) J. Edgar
10) The Ides of March
Dropping Out: Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Hot: The Help, Paris, Extremely Loud, Girl...Tattoo
Cold: War Horse, J. Edgar
Comments: At this point there would likely be 7 nominees. I'm less than confident about the prospects of the two summertime releases (Help and Paris). I wouldn't be surprised to see them fade as the holiday onslaught hits (especially Paris).
Soapbox: I have been beating my very tiny drum for specific performers/films since Telluride concluded and have decided to do a little more of that...So..."Shame" for Best Pic!
BEST DIRECTOR:
1) Alexander Payne/Descendants
2) Bennett Miller/Moneyball
3) Michel Hazanvicius/Artist
4) Steven Spielberg/War Horse
5) Woody Allen/Paris
6) Stephen Daldry/Extremely Loud
7) Terrence Malick/Tree of Life
8) David Fincher/Girl...Tattoo
9) Tomas Alfredson/Tinker, Tailor...
10) Clint Eastwood/J. Edgar
Dropping Out: Clooney/Ides
Hot: Payne, Miller, Daldry, Fincher
Not: Hazanavicius, Spielberg, Alfredson, Eastwood
Comment: Payne named by all 8 sources.
Soapbox: McQueen/Shame
BEST ACTRESS
1) Viola Davis/Help
2) Glenn Close/Nobbs
3) Meryl Streep/Iron Lady
4) Michelle Williams/Marilyn
5) Charlize Theron/Young Adult
6) Tilda Swinton/Kevin
7) Rooney Mara/Girl...Tattoo
8) Elizabeth Olsen/Martha Marcy...
9) Kirsten Dunst/Melancholia
10) Olivia Colman/Tyrannosaurus
Dropping Out: Jones/Like Crazy, Knightley/Dangerous Method
Hot: Davis, Theron, Mara, Dunst and Colman
Not: Streep and Olsen
Comment: Why do I have the feeling that "The Iron Lady" isn't going to be very good?
Soapbox: I'm okay here.
BEST ACTOR
1) George Clooney/Descendants
2) Jean Dujardin/Artist
3) Brad Pitt/Moneyball
4) Gary Oldman/Tinker, Tailor...
5) Michael Fassbender/Shame
6) Leonardo DiCaprio/J. Edgar
7) Woody Harrelson/Rampart
8) Ryan Gosling/Ides
9) Michael Shannon/Take Shelter
10) Joseph Gordon-Levitt/50/50
Dropping Out: Fassbender/Dangerous Method, Matt Damon/Zoo
Hot: Dujardin, Pitt, Fassbender, Harrelson, Gordon-Levitt
Not: DiCaprio, Gosling, Shannon
Comment: Fassbender and Harrelson with a lot of heat the last couple of weeks. Despite being as far out as we are, I suspect the 5 noms will come from the top 7.
Soapbox: Fassbender!
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1) Olivia Spencer/Help
2) Vanessa Redgrave/Coriolanus
3) Shailene Woodley/Descendants
4) Janet McTeer/Nobbs
5) Berenice Bejo/Artist
6) Judi Dench/J. Edgar
7) Jessica Chastain/Help
8) Carey Mulligan/Shame
9) Judy Greer/Descendants
10) Melissa McCarthy/Bridesmaids
Dropping Out: Bullock/Extremely Loud, Watts/War Horse
Hot: Woodley, Mulligan, Greer, McCarthy
Not: Bejo
Comment: I think I said as Telluride was coming to an end that this could be a really T-ride heavy category. If the cards fell right, all 5 noms could be from TFF #38...that won't happen, though. Spencer is a lock and Redgrave is nearly one.
Soapbox: Mulligan!
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Christopher Plummer/Beginners
2) Albert Brooks/Drive
3) Max Von Sydow/Extremely Loud
4) Kenneth Brannagh/Marilyn
5) Jonah Hill/Moneyball
6) Philip Seymour Hoffman/Ides
7) Brad Pitt/Tree of Life
8) Jim Broadbent/Iron Lady
9) Tom Hanks/Extremely Loud
10) John Hawkes/Martha Marcy...
Dropping Out: Nolte/Warrior, Mortensen/Dangerous Method, Ezra Miller/Kevin
Hot: Von Sydow, Hill, Pitt, Hanks, Hawkes
Not: Well, you know, the guys that dropped out.
Comment: Just the opposite of Supporting actress. Not a Telluride performance currently in the top ten. It's a weird year...Jonah Hill??? Really??? And the answer is "yes". He's surprisingly good in "Moneyball". Brooks looks like a probable nominee...and his performance is fine and it's not your typical Albert Brooks (actually, it kind of IS), but this is an over rated performance. I expect that the top 5 are all in pretty good shape and that the actual biggest threat to disrupt them is John Hawkes.
Soapbox: Ezra Miller in "We Need to Talk About Kevin" and Corey Stoll in "Midnight in Paris".
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) Midnight in Paris
2) The Artist
3) The Tree of Life
4) Young Adult
5) The Iron Lady
6) J. Edgar
7) Bridesmaids
8) Like Crazy
9) Win Win
10) Shame
Dropping Out: Martha Marcy, Take Shelter
Hot: Tree of Life, Young Adult, Win Win, Shame
Not: J. Edgar, Like Crazy
Comment: The category is very fluid. Paris looks like the only lock at this point.
Soapbox: A Separation and Beginners!
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) The Descendants
2) Moneyball
3) Extremely Loud
4) War Horse
5) Tinker, Tailor...
6) The Ides of March
7) Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
8) The Help
9) Drive
10) Carnage
Dropping Out: Kevin, Dangerous Method
Hot: Moneyball, Tattoo, Drive
Not: Tinker Tailor..., Carnage
Comment: Descendants and Moneyball look pretty solid.
Soapbox: I'm good here, too.
The count (if the above actually was correct) in the Big 8 Categories:
The Descendants: 5 noms and another possible.
The Artist: 5 noms
Albert Nobbs: 2 noms
Shame: 1 nom and 2 more possible
Kevin: 1 possible
Telluirde total 13 nominations with another 4 possible. That's actually down from the 13 and 7 from the last Clearinghouse post largely due to the complete disappearance of "A Dangerous Method".
Meanwhile, Scott Feinberg has his latest Oscar dissection "Feinberg and Friends" up at The Hollywood Reporter. Check it here:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/scott-feinberg-tom-oneil-oscars-253682
A LOT OF SHAME
It's official. What we all thought would happen has happened. Steve McQueen's "Shame" has officially been rated NC-17 by the MPAA. It's no surprise but it will challenge the folks at Fox Searchlight during this awards season. I hope that they can turn the trick as I have been a big supporter of this film since it played in Telluride. Here is exhaustive coverage of the MPAA decision from this week.
From The Wrap: http://www.thewrap.com/movies/column-post/michael-fassbenders-private-parts-officially-rated-nc-17-32172
The Hollywood Reporter: http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/shame-rated-nc-michael-fassbender-17-253247
Rope of Silicon: http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/latest-mpaa-ratings-bulletin-no-2195/
Movie City News: http://moviecitynews.com/2011/10/return-of-the-nc-17/
StudioBriefing.net: http://www.studiobriefing.net/2011/10/studio-says-its-not-ashamed-of-nc-17-for-shame/
In other "Shame" news, I have included a couple of links to interviews with McQueen and star Michael Fassbender.
From the New York Film Festival via youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KKOALET1uo0&feature=youtu.be&noredirect=1
also from Sight and Sound: https://bfi.org.uk/live/video/744/live/
And a conversation with co-star Carey Mulligan from Movie City News: http://moviecitynews.com/2011/10/dp30-sneak-peek-carey-mulligan-on-incest-nudity-shame/
SOME DESCENDANTS
And finally a look at an interview with "The Descendants" writer/director Alexander Payne from IndieWire:
http://www.indiewire.com/article/2011/10/24/interview_alexander_payne_on_the_descendants_and_career_ambition_my_films_a#
TALK ABOUT KEVIN
This was a good week for Lynne Ramsay's "We Need to Talk About Kevin". It picked up the BFI London Film Festival Best Film Award. Details are here from The Hollywood Reporter:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/we-need-talk-about-kevin-bfi-london-film-festival-253792
And it released a new, and well received new poster (seen above). More poster info can be found at The Playlist:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/archives/another_gorgeous_poster_for_lynne_ramsays_we_need_to_talk_about_kevin/
And also at Cinema Blend:
http://www.cinemablend.com/new/Elegant-Poster-We-Need-Talk-About-Kevin-Arrives-Online-27564.html
See you Monday!
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