Ten Bets #2 for TFF #50 / Checking the Distributors: Amazon Studios / Toronto Announces First Film / Speaking of WOR / A Couple of Trailers for TFF #49 Documentaries

TEN BETS #2 FOR TFF #50

A week ago I debuted the first Ten Bets for the 2023 edition of the Telluride Film Festival.  Here's what that looked like a week ago:

1) The Holdovers/Payne

2) May December/Haynes

3) Nyad/Chin and Vasarhelyi

4) Monster/Kore-eda

5) Strangers/Haigh

6) El Conde/Larrain

7) Poor Things/Lanthimos

8) Anatomy of a Fall/Triet

9) The American Buffalo/Burns

10) The End/Oppenheimer

And after a week of additional snooping, here is your latest iteration of MTFB's Ten Bets:

1) The Holdovers/Payne

2) May December/Haynes

3) Nyad/Chin/Vasarhelyi

4) Strangers/Haigh

5) Poor Things/Lanthimos

6) Monster/Kore-eda

7) Anatomy of a Fall/Triet

8) El Conde/Larrain

9) Saltburn/Fennell

10) The End/Oppenheimer

Other possibilities: The Zone of Interest/Glazer, Freud's Last Session/Brown, The Teachers' Lounge/Catak, The Royal Hotel/Green, Rustin/Wolfe, The American Buffalo/Burns, Priscilla/Coppola and Shirley/Ridley.

CHECKING THE DISTRIBUTORS: AMAZON STUDIOS

The sifting through the most common recent film distribution companies that have played Telluride and the guessing game about what that might mean for TFF #50 continues today with Amazon Studios.

Here's their track record at TFF over the past few years:

2022: Wildcat, Good Night Oppy

2021: Encounter, A Hero

2020: All In: The Fight for Democracy

2019: The Aeronauts, The Report

2018: Peterloo, Cold War

2017: Wonderstruck

2016: Manchester by the Sea

So, what might we see?

Three possibilities: Emerald Fennell's Saltburn seems the most likely.  A couple of sources have indicated that the film is a hot commodity among the Telluride/Venice/Toronto triumvirate.

Other films are Garth Davis' Foe Michael Showalter's The Idea of You and Maggie Betts' The Burial.

Other Amazon films for 2023 have already been released or screened at Sundance making their play at TFF unlikely.

My assessment of chances for these four films:

Saltburn 40%

The Burial 30%

The Idea of You 20%

Foe 20%

TORONTO ANNOUNCES FIRST FILM

The Toronto International Film Festival announced yesterday that it will World Premiere Taika Waititi's Next Goal Wins from distributor/producer Searchlight.  That effectively removes the film from TFF #50 consideration...at least on this blog.  

I had Next Goal Wins at a 25% chance of making the Telluride lineup when I did my review of Searchlight films on June 19th.

Two other Searchlight films had better shots at Telluride on that June 16th post-Strangers and Poor Things.  Both of those films stayed in today's new Ten Bets.

Here is coverage of Toronto's announcement from Jordan Ruimy's World of Reel.

SEPAKING OF WOR

MTFB made an appearance at Jordan Ruimy's World of Reel yesterday as the blog got cited as Ruimy turned his attention to films that might be possibilities for TFF #50.

A Compass

In addition to the films he cites from MTFB's Ten Bets, Ruimy adds this:

"Maybe we’ll also get some of these: Maestro (Cooper), Priscilla (Coppola), The Actor (Johnson), The Bikeriders (Nichols) and Ferrari (Mann). It all depends on their quality, Telluride head Julie Huntsinger is very nitpicky when it comes to curating her lineup."

All of these would be welcome and interesting choices.  Of the five Ruimy lists I think Priscilla is the most likely Telluride play.  As a matter of fact, Ruimy's speculation is enough for me to add Priscilla to the "Other possibilities" listing for today's update of the Ten Bets.

The complete Telluride 2023 story from WOR click here.

A COUPLE OF TRAILERS FOR TFF #49 DOCUMENTARIES

A COMPASSIONATE SPY

MY NAME IS ALFRED HITCHCOCK

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

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She Won't Be Saying Anything at Telluride / What We Think We Know / Blonde's New Trailer / New Doc: A Compassionate Spy Might Be at TFF #49

SHE WON'T BE SAYING ANYTHING AT TELLURIDE

Some of the films I predict for Telluride come from looking at the history of the fest and its relationship with directors, producers and distributors.

Some come from intell that comes my way or that I scratch up from my own digging here and there.

Some come from sources-folks who will drop me a line .

And some are just intuition.  Maria Schrader's She Said has been one of those intuition picks for me all summer.  I've had it bouncing in and out of the Ten Bets each week or in the list of "Other Possibilities" all summer long.  It appeared in the first Ten Bets for this year at the #10 spot.  

But now, Jordan Ruimy/World of Reel says nope.  No She Said at Telluride and his reporting is pretty definitive.

Ruimy's's post from Friday followed up on a note from an Anne Thompson Indiewire post that had included this:

"Another film expected to drive buzz at the NYFF is “She Said” (November 18, Universal), the true journalistic saga behind two New York Times reporters’ quest to nail sexual predator Harvey Weinstein, which launched the #MeToo movement and propelled the movie mogul into prison." 

Ruimy followed that hint up and reported that he had confirmed that She Said will World Premiere at NYFF thereby indicating that the film will not me making an appearance at TFF #49.

I hate to hear that as I was really looking forward to She Said on Labor Day weekend.

WHAT WE THINK WE KNOW

Between TIFF premiere status descriptions and the Alberto Barbera Variety interview last week most of those of us who keep track of such things think that we can confidently say that these films will screen as part of The SHOW in five weeks:

Bardo/Inarritu

Bones and All/Guadagnino

Broker/Kore-eda

Empire of Light/Mendes

Good Night Oppy/White

Holy Spider/Abbasi

One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love

TAR/Fields

The Wonder/Lelio

Women Talking/Polley

Major titles that seem certain not to be at Telluride:

The Banshees of Insherin

The Fabelmans

The Good Nurse

She Said

The Son

Triangle of Sadness

Major titles still up in the air for Telluride:

Armageddon Time

Blonde 

Master Gardener

The Pale Blue Eye

Showing Up

White Noise

I'll likely expand the "Ten Bets" list on Thursday to 15 Bets.

BLONDE'S NEW TRAILER AND POSTER

New poster for Andrew Dominik's Blonde

Yea, I'll admit it.  My insistence on keeping Blonde (and Babylon) in the conversation for a possible Telluride play is almost certainly wishful thinking.  Both films are very unlikely to be in the San Juans five weeks from now.  Blonde and Babylon are and have been my most anticipated films for the year for months.  Nevertheless, a guy can dream.

That said, if you missed the release from Netflix of the new trailer for Andrew Dominik's Blonde from late last week.  Here it is:

NEW DOC: A COMPASSIONATE SPY MIGHT BE AT TFF #49

(Photo via The Chicago Tribune)

The Chicago Tribune reporting on the selection of  Steve James (Hoop Dreams, Prefontaine) A Compassionate Spy to an Out of Competition slot at the Venice Film Festival implies the possibility/probability of a play at Telluride.

The Tribune story was picked up and re-published by the Finger Lakes Times Saturday and within that story are a couple of tantalizing statements:

"Though the filmmaker could not confirm the near-future for his latest project, many world premieres start at Venice and then go straight to a U.S. premiere at the Telluride Film Festival in Colorado a few days later."

The story also suggests that the documentary was submitted to Telluride:

"James wrapped up principal photography in April, and his producers at Participant Media suggested submitting the film for Venice (Aug. 31-Sept. 10) and Telluride (Sept. 2-5)."

A Compassionate Spy is "about the Manhattan Project physicist, Soviet spy and University of Chicago alum Theodore Hall...[the film] deals with the lives of Ted and Joan Hall — their marriage, their longtime evasion of the FBI and the information about Hall’s atomic espionage activities that came to light four years before Hall died in Cambridge, England, in 1999."

James was an Oscar nominee for Hoop Dreams in 1995 and Abacus: Small Enough to Jail in 2018.

Is it a certainty?  No, but put it on your radar.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

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