LATE BREAKING: SAG-AFTRA AUTHROIZES STRIKE / May December Not in September / MTFB's Ten Bets #4 / Ioncinema Predicts Venice

LATE BREAKING: SAG/AFTRA AUTHORIZES STRIKE

The National Board of SAG-AFTRA officially announced that the organization's members would be on strike at noon Pacific Time today.  The strike goes into effect at midnight (Pacific) tonight.

In addition to a shutdown of active film making those of us who pay attention to film festivals note that this action means that no SAG-AFTRA member will be allowed to promote projects in which they are involved.  How this affects fest like Telluride and others is not totally clear.  I have seen some speculation that some studios may be reluctant to send a film to a fest or feasts without the fire power of its stars being able to accompany a film.

Will news outlets shift the amount and intensity of their coverage with no talent to pursue?

Whatever happens it seems that the Fall Film Fests have a new wrinkle to deal with.

Roger Friedman of ShowBiz411.com provides some analysis about the potential effect of the strike on fall film fests including Telluride.

MAY DECEMBER NOT IN SEPTEMBER

The headline above is my faux-clever way of passing on that it appears that Todd Haynes' May December will NOT be playing at Telluride 2023. 

The New York Film Fest announced on Tuesday from the frequent TFF attendee, will North American Premiere as the Opening Night Film for NYFF.  The "North American Premiere" status tells us that the film will not have played anywhere in North America prior to its NYFF gig and that means no Telluride play.

Honestly, the last couple of weeks has really got me thinking that I don't have much of a grasp of what's going on this year.  

Haynes has been a frequent TFF presence but his films don't always play in the San Juans...just very, very often.

For example, his 2019 thriller, Dark Waters, also premiered at NYFF and did not play TFF but then you have to go all the way back to 1998's Velvet Underground to find a non-Telluride screening.  Haynes has bowed The Velvet Underground, Wonderstruck, Carol, I'm Not There and Far From Heaven all did play TFF.

Which leads to...

MTFB'S TEN BETS #4

As you might expect, with the above news about may December, the new "Ten Bets" has some changes.

Additionally, as a warning, next week (7/19) we get a big slew of announcements from Toronto that historically wrecks the "Bets".  Maybe I should re-think my hobbies...

Last week's Ten Bets were:

1) May December/Haynes

2) Poor Things/Lanthimos

3) Strangers/Haigh

4) The Holdovers/Payne

5) Monster/Kore-eda

6) Saltburn/Fennell

7) Nyad/ Chin and Vasarhelyi

8) Anatomy of a Fall/Triet

9) El Conde/Larrain

10) The Teachers' Lounge/Catak

Now...with some chagrin, here's this week's Ten Bets:

1) The Holdovers/Alexander Payne

2) Poor Things/Yorgos Lanthimos

3) Saltburn/Emerald Fennell

4) Strangers/Andrew Haigh

5) Nyad/Chin and Vasarhelyi

6) Monster/Kore-eda

7) Anatomy of a Fall/Justine Triet

8) Fallen Leaves/Aki Kaurismaki

9) The Teachers' Lounge/Ilker Catak

10) The Pot-au-Feu/Trinh Hung

Other possibilities: The Zone of Interest/Glazer, The End/Oppenheimer, El Conde/Pablo Larrain, Freud's Last Session/Brown, The Royal Hotel/Green, Rustin/Wolfe, The American Buffalo/Burns, Priscilla/Coppola and Shirley/Ridley.

IONCINEMA PREDICTS VENICE

Ioncinema put together a three part list of 75 possibilities for the Venice Fest.  Some Venice films are very likely to subsequently play at Telluride.  From the Ioncinema lists, here's a guess about some of the films that might make the trans-Atlantic jump:

From Part One:

The Burial/Maggie Betts

Daaaaaali!/Quentin Dupieux

Drive-Away Dolls/Ethan Coen***

El Conde/Pablo Larrain

Fingernails/Christos Nikou

From Part Two:

The Captain/Matteo Garrone

Lee/Ellen Kuras

Love Lies Bleeding/Rose Glass

Maestro/Bradley Cooper

From Part Three:

Poor Things/Yorgos Lanthimos

Priscilla/Sofia Coppola***

Strangers/Andrew Haigh

**I'm actually fairly convinced that this film is going to play Toronto and play T-ride BUT, it's only one of two films that Ioncinema lists and specifically suggests that Telluride is a possibility.

***The other film that specifies that Telluride is a possibility

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Ten Bets #3 for TFF #50 / New Trailer for Killers of the Flower Moon / Fincher's The Killer and Venice? / 800,000

 TEN BETS #3 FOR TFF #50

Here's the third iteration of my "Ten Bets" for TFF #50.  As I post this morning we are just a couple of weeks away from the clarity that announcements from the Toronto International Film Festival can provide.  TIFF announces its first wave of Galas and Special Presentations along with their revealing "premiere status" on that day.  

TIFF announcement days are always exhilarating and heart breaking.  Exhilarating because it's often the first hard evidence of a film's disposition vis-a-vis Telluride and heartbreaking because inevitably films that I want to play Telluride are discovered on that day as World Premieres for TIFF and thus will not make the trip to southwest Colorado.

So that's coming on July 19th.  I'll attempt a little social media coverage on the 19th as information becomes available and then have a full on report on my regular posting day on July 20th.

All that said to get to this week's Ten Bets.

As a reminder, here are last week's Ten Bets:

1) The Holdovers/Payne

2) May December/Haynes

3) Nyad/Chin and Vasarhelyi

4) Strangers/Haigh

5) Poor Things/Lanthimos

6) Monster/Kore-eda

7) Anatomy of a Fall/Triet

8) El Conde/Larrain

9) Saltburn/Fennell

10) The End/Oppenheimer

Other possibilities: The Zone of Interest/Glazer, Freud's Last Session/Brown, The Teachers' Lounge/Catak, The Royal Hotel/Green, Rustin/Wolfe, The American Buffalo/Burns, Priscilla/Coppola and Shirley/Ridley.

And here's the update, the third Ten Bets for TFF #50:

1) May December/Haynes

2) Poor Things/Lanthimos

3) Strangers/Haigh

4) The Holdovers/Payne

5) Monster/Kore-eda

6) Saltburn/Fennell

7) Nyad/ Chin and Vasarhelyi

8) Anatomy of a Fall/Triet

9) El Conde/Larrain

10) The Teachers' Lounge/Catak

Other possibilities: The Zone of Interest/Glazer, Fallen Leaves/Kaurismaki, The End/Oppenheimer, The Pot-au-Feu/Hung,  Freud's Last Session/Brown, The Royal Hotel/Green, Rustin/Wolfe, The American Buffalo/Burns, Priscilla/Coppola and Shirley/Ridley.

NEW TRAILER FOR KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

Apple dropped a new trailer for my most anticipated film for 2023, Martin Scorsese's Killers of the Flower Moon.  The film is set for limited release on Oct. 6th and then opens wide on Oct. 20th. 

My guess, at this point is that Killers maybe plays the New York Film Festival prior to its release and bypasses both Telluride and Toronto.  I hope my assessment is way off.

As many know, I did a day of background work on the film. I can tell you that I'm not in either trailer.  Here's the new one:

 

FINCHER'S THE KILLER AND VENICE?

Michael Fassbender on the set of The Killer (via IMDb)

By and large I have discounted any possibility that David Fincher would return to Telluride this year with The Killer starring Michael Fassbender.  Up to now I have surmised that the film produced in part by Paramount and Plan B and distributed by Netflix likely wouldn't play any festival though its planned Nov. 10th release date would allow it to.

However, Jordan Ruimy's World of Reel reported on Sunday (7/2) that the door might still be open for the film to screen at Venice:

"On Friday, I was rather stunned by an Italian source telling me that Netflix is now thinking of bringing David Fincher’s “The Killer” to Venice. 

This source told me, “negotiations are underway, Barbera did see it and he wants it in competition. I’m not sure if he will be able to get it as the odds are 50/50 right now since Netflix would rather premiere it closer to the November release.”

Now, if the door is open for Venice, could it also be open for the jump to Telluride?  Fincher was the recipient of a Telluride tribute back in 2008 where Zodiac was screened in its entirety and scenes from The Curious Case of Benjamin Button were screened so he's been in the San Juans before.

Personally I'm still very skeptical that The Killer lands in Colorado and frankly I tend to buy the conventional wisdom that if The Killer plays a fest at all it will probably be New York.

But I'd like to be wrong.

800,000

Just passed another milestone in the history of MTFB last night as total views for the blog went beyond the 800,000 mark.  That means that each post of the 2,135 I have published since August 8th, 2008 has averaged 347.7 views.

Thanks for reading!

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Ten Bets #2 for TFF #50 / Checking the Distributors: Amazon Studios / Toronto Announces First Film / Speaking of WOR / A Couple of Trailers for TFF #49 Documentaries

TEN BETS #2 FOR TFF #50

A week ago I debuted the first Ten Bets for the 2023 edition of the Telluride Film Festival.  Here's what that looked like a week ago:

1) The Holdovers/Payne

2) May December/Haynes

3) Nyad/Chin and Vasarhelyi

4) Monster/Kore-eda

5) Strangers/Haigh

6) El Conde/Larrain

7) Poor Things/Lanthimos

8) Anatomy of a Fall/Triet

9) The American Buffalo/Burns

10) The End/Oppenheimer

And after a week of additional snooping, here is your latest iteration of MTFB's Ten Bets:

1) The Holdovers/Payne

2) May December/Haynes

3) Nyad/Chin/Vasarhelyi

4) Strangers/Haigh

5) Poor Things/Lanthimos

6) Monster/Kore-eda

7) Anatomy of a Fall/Triet

8) El Conde/Larrain

9) Saltburn/Fennell

10) The End/Oppenheimer

Other possibilities: The Zone of Interest/Glazer, Freud's Last Session/Brown, The Teachers' Lounge/Catak, The Royal Hotel/Green, Rustin/Wolfe, The American Buffalo/Burns, Priscilla/Coppola and Shirley/Ridley.

CHECKING THE DISTRIBUTORS: AMAZON STUDIOS

The sifting through the most common recent film distribution companies that have played Telluride and the guessing game about what that might mean for TFF #50 continues today with Amazon Studios.

Here's their track record at TFF over the past few years:

2022: Wildcat, Good Night Oppy

2021: Encounter, A Hero

2020: All In: The Fight for Democracy

2019: The Aeronauts, The Report

2018: Peterloo, Cold War

2017: Wonderstruck

2016: Manchester by the Sea

So, what might we see?

Three possibilities: Emerald Fennell's Saltburn seems the most likely.  A couple of sources have indicated that the film is a hot commodity among the Telluride/Venice/Toronto triumvirate.

Other films are Garth Davis' Foe Michael Showalter's The Idea of You and Maggie Betts' The Burial.

Other Amazon films for 2023 have already been released or screened at Sundance making their play at TFF unlikely.

My assessment of chances for these four films:

Saltburn 40%

The Burial 30%

The Idea of You 20%

Foe 20%

TORONTO ANNOUNCES FIRST FILM

The Toronto International Film Festival announced yesterday that it will World Premiere Taika Waititi's Next Goal Wins from distributor/producer Searchlight.  That effectively removes the film from TFF #50 consideration...at least on this blog.  

I had Next Goal Wins at a 25% chance of making the Telluride lineup when I did my review of Searchlight films on June 19th.

Two other Searchlight films had better shots at Telluride on that June 16th post-Strangers and Poor Things.  Both of those films stayed in today's new Ten Bets.

Here is coverage of Toronto's announcement from Jordan Ruimy's World of Reel.

SEPAKING OF WOR

MTFB made an appearance at Jordan Ruimy's World of Reel yesterday as the blog got cited as Ruimy turned his attention to films that might be possibilities for TFF #50.

A Compass

In addition to the films he cites from MTFB's Ten Bets, Ruimy adds this:

"Maybe we’ll also get some of these: Maestro (Cooper), Priscilla (Coppola), The Actor (Johnson), The Bikeriders (Nichols) and Ferrari (Mann). It all depends on their quality, Telluride head Julie Huntsinger is very nitpicky when it comes to curating her lineup."

All of these would be welcome and interesting choices.  Of the five Ruimy lists I think Priscilla is the most likely Telluride play.  As a matter of fact, Ruimy's speculation is enough for me to add Priscilla to the "Other possibilities" listing for today's update of the Ten Bets.

The complete Telluride 2023 story from WOR click here.

A COUPLE OF TRAILERS FOR TFF #49 DOCUMENTARIES

A COMPASSIONATE SPY

MY NAME IS ALFRED HITCHCOCK

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Ten Bets for TFF #50 / Neglia's List / Trailers for Challengers and Priscilla

 TEN BETS FOR TFF #50

Today's the day...the countdown to the lineup announcement for the 50th Telluride Film Festival on this blog begins in earnest today with 2023's first edition of MTFB's "Ten Bets".

Regular readers will know that this is my first "real" stab at predicting what will be playing at Telluride over the Labor Day weekend.  I'll subsequently adjust and expand the list as the summer goes on.  Serious indicators occur with announcements about what will be screening at the Toronto and Venice fests and, to a lesser degree Venice's scheduling and the New York Film Fest lineup.

The final Ten Bets for 2023 will be the Monday post on August 28th.

Again, as dedicated readers of this space are aware, MTFB on average lands between 5-6 films on this initial list that end up in the lineup when it is revealed.  To wit, last year this was the list of films that comprised the first Ten Bets for TFF #49.  Films that actually screened at TFF are in Bold.

1) Bardo/Inarritu

2) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love

3) The Son/Zeller

4) Close/Dhont

5) Women Talking/Polley

6) Aftersun/Wells

7) Showing Up/Reichardt

8) White Noise/Baumbach

9) Broker/Kore-eda

10) She Said/M. Schrader

6/10

Here was the 2021 first Ten Bets:

1) The Power of the Dog/Campion

2) Muhammad Ali/Burns, Burns and McMahon

3) The Card Counter/Schrader

4) Nightmare Alley/Del Toro

5) The Velvet Underground/Haynes

6) Bergman Island/Hansen-Love

7) Cow/Arnold

8) A Hero/Farhadi

9) Blonde/Dominik

10) The Story of Looking/Cousins

8/10

Going back to the advent of my Ten Bets approach, here was the track record from 2011-2019:

2011: 8/10
2012: 5/10
2013: 6/10
2014: 7/10
2015: 4/10
2016: 3/10
2017: 7/10
2018: 5/10

2019: 4/10

So, with all of that as prelude, here is MTFB's first Ten Bets for films to play at The SHOW in 2023:

1) The Holdovers/Payne

2) May December/Haynes

3) Nyad/Chin and Vasarhelyi

4) Monster/Kore-eda

5) Strangers/Haigh

6) El Conde/Larrain

7) Poor Things/Lanthimos

8) Anatomy of a Fall/Triet

9) The American Buffalo/Burns

10) The End/Oppenheimer

Other possibilities: Freud's Last Session/Brown, The Teachers' Lounge/Catak, The Zone of Ineterst/Glazer, Saltburn/Fennell, The Royal Hotel/Green, Rustin/Wolfe and Shirley/Ridley.

There you go.  Now let's see how this all unfolds over the next ten weeks.

NEGLIA'S LIST

Matt Neglia, who runs Next Best Picture, posted a terrific piece this week about what film fests had hosted the World Premiere's of Best Picture Oscar nominees.  Neglia focused on the nominees since AMPAS adopted the expanded Best Picture field in 2009.

Here's his list for TFF (with best Picture winners in Bold.):

Telluride Film Festival

2022: Women Talking

2021: Belfast & King Richard

2020: None

2019: Ford v Ferrari

2018: None

2017: Darkest Hour, Lady Bird

2016: Moonlight

2015: Room

2014: The Imitation Game

2013: 12 Years A Slave

2012: Argo

2011: The Descendants

2010: 127 Hours, The King’s Speech

2009: Up In The Air

Neglia also includes analysis for Sundance, Cannes, Berlin, SXSW, Venice, Toronto, New York and AFI.

His compilation shows the following statistics for the number of Best Picture World Premieres at these fests:

Venice Film Festival: 21

Sundance Film Festival: 15

Telluride Film Festival: 15

Cannes Film Festival: 14

Toronto Film Festival: 12

New York Film Festival: 8

AFI Fest: 3

Berlin Film Festival: 1

SXSW: 1

So, since 2009 TFF has had the second most World Premieres of Best Picture nominees trailing only Venice and tied with Sundance.  However, what Matt doesn't look is the North American Premieres that happen at Telluride (and Toronto and New York for that matter).  If you factor those in, then Telluride's place in the fest firmament re: Oscar BP nominations is more pronounced.

Here's the rundown for each year where TFF screened the North American premiere (usually) of films that were Oscar nominated for Best Picture after having their World Premiere at an earlier fest:

2022: TAR (Venice)

2021: The Power of the Dog (Venice)

2020: Nomadland (Venice), The Father (Sundance)

2019: Parasite (Cannes), Marriage Story (Venice)

2018: The Favourite (Venice), Roma (Venice)

2017: The Shape of Water (Venice)

2016: Arrival (Venice), La La Land (Venice), Manchester by the Sea (Sundance)

2015: Spotlight (Venice)

2014: Birdman (Venice)

2013: Nebraska (Cannes), Gravity (Venice)

2012: Amour (Cannes)

2011: The Artist (Cannes)

2010: Black Swan (Venice)

2009: An Education (Sundance)

So all told, 35 films have played Telluride since 2009 and gone on to a Best Picture nomination.  Neglia points out that during that same time period 35 films were Best Picture nominated without any festival debut at all.

But Toronto is a huge player.  Yes, they have only World Premiered 12 films from 2009-2022 that have been BP nominated BUT...they have also screened a whopping 41 films that were not World Premieres at TIFF but did receive a Best Picture nomination.

Five each from Sundance and Cannes.  17 from Venice and 14 of the Telluride 15 World Premieres went on to Toronto.  The only film not of Telluride's 15 that didn't go on to TIFF was King Richard.

Nine Best Picture Oscar winners in the 2009-22 time frame played both Telluride and Toronto.  Here are those films:

2021: Nomadland

2020: Parasite

2018: The Shape of Water

2017: Moonlight

2016: Spotlight

2014: 12 Years a Slave

2013: Argo

2012: The Artist

2011: The King's Speech

There's a lot more to digest from Matt's post which is linked here.

TRAILERS FOR CHALLENGERS AND PRISCILLA

We have new trailers this week for a couple of films that are on the periphery of Telluride possibilities.  

Luca Guadagnino could return to TFF this year with his story of a three person love affair.  Challengers features, Zendaya, Mike Faist and Josh O'Connor in a film set in the world of professional tennis.  It is being distributed by United Artists Releasing. The film's release date is set for Sept. 15th.  Guadagnino's Bones and All as well as Salvatore: Shoemaker of Dreams were both screened at TFF #49.  

Both Alex Billington at First Showing.net and Steven Prusakowski at Awards Radar are suggesting that Telluride is realistic stop for the film.

Here's the trailer from YouTube:

And also this week, the trailer for Sofia Coppola's Priscilla which tells the story of the woman who married and divorced Elvis Presley.  It stars Cailee Spaeny as Priscilla with Jacob Elordi as the King.

Coppola hasn't screened a film at Telluride since 2003's Lost in Translation but with it being TFF's 50th edition and the Coppola family having strong ties to the history of Telluride, I can see her returning with this film. Priscilla does not yet have an announced release date.  Distribution is being handled by A24.

Again, from YouTube:

Both Alex Billington at First Showing.net and Steven Prusakowski at Awards Radar are suggesting that Telluride is realistic stop for the film 

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Checking the Distributors: Netflix / Venetian Thoughts

CHECKING THE DISTRIBUTORS: NETFLIX

One of the methods that I've used over the past several years to "inform" my TFF speculation is to look at the history of films from specific distributors and Telluride.  It's not an exact science but can give insight.

So, without further ado we start with what has become over the last 7-8 years the most screened distributor at the Telluride Film Festival: Netflix.  Netflix has screened 25 films at TFF since first showing up in 2015.  That's an average of 3.6 films/year (I have left out the anomalous Covid year of 2020).

Here's the Netflix track record since 2015:

2015: Beasts of No Nation, Winter on Fire

2016: I Called Him Morgan, The Ivory Game, Into the Inferno

2017: First They Killed My Father, Wormwood

2018: Dovlatov, Girl, Reversing Roe, Roma, The Other Side of the Wind, They'll Love Me When I'm Dead

2019: Inside Bill's Brain, Marriage Story, Tell Me Who I Am, The Two Popes

2020: No announced films

2021: The Hand of God, The Lost Daughter, The Power of the Dog, Procession

2022: Bardo, Lady Chatterley's Lover, Sr., The Wonder

In 2022 it felt like Netflix's slate-both at Telluride and overall- didn't have the same punch as it had in 2018, 2019 or 2021.  

That might change in 2023.  I checked on the early Oscar lines from a variety of sources to get a sense of the heat for some of Netflix's films.

Variety's Clayton Davis has Netflix titles Maestro (d. Bradley Cooper) and May December (d. Todd Haynes) in his current "early" Best Picture predictions.  He also has David Fincher's The Killer in  his "Next in Line" list at #19.

Joey Magidson at Awards Radar has 3 Netflix properties in his Best Picture Top 20:

Maestro at #5

Rustin at #16

May December at #17

Mark Johnson of Good as Gold has 3 Netflix titles in his early Best Picture Top 20:

Maestro at #4

The Killer at #15

Rustin at #16

Gold Derby has Maestro and Rustin on its Top 20 "Incredibly Early" Best Picture Oscar contenders list.

So, with all that in mind, here's where I'd estimate we are regarding titles that are in the Netflix stable and their chances of a Telluride #50 play:

At the top is Todd Haynes' May December.  Chances to play at TFF: 70%.

Then:

Nyad (Chin and Vasarhelyi) 55%

El Conde (Larrain) 50%

In the "maybe but lesser likelihood" category: Leave the World Behind, Pain Hustlers, Shirley, The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar and Rustin,

Right now, I'm thinking Maestro and The Killer (if it's even ready) are unlikely for T-ride.  I'd like to be wrong about these.

VENETIAN THOUGHTS

Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel reported over the weekend on the Venice speculation coming from Italy's La Repubblica.

Among the titles that are mentioned that could subsequent to a Venice screening find their way to the San Junas:

Matteo Garrone's Il Capitano

Jeymes Samuels' The Book of Clarence

Yorgos Lanthimos' Poor Things

Luca Guadagnino's Challengers

Sophia Coppola's Priscilla

Chin and Vasarhelyi's Nyad

Bradley Cooper's Maestro.

From this list I am currently most bullish on Poor Things and Nyad for TFF #50 and think the least likely is  Maestro.

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Cannes Final Critical Analysis / Neglia's Cannes-Telluride Analysis / Miyazaki-Not This Time?

CANNES FINAL CRITICAL ANALYSIS

After a serious on-again/off-again connectivity issue I finally have the last look at the critical compilation for the films of Cannes #76 from Reini Urabn.  Urban's collection of critical responses is massive.  You can find that here.

I wrote a couple of weeks ago that Telluride normally programs an average of four films from the top 25 of Urban's compilation.  Additionally, the crossover between the fests overall is 7-8 films each year.

This year seven films that I have had my eye on as potential plays at TFF #50 finished in Reini's top 25:

2) The Zone of Interest (8.03) (2nd only to Killers of the Flower Moon)

5) Perfect Days (7.76)

8) Monster (7.57)

12) Fallen Leaves (7.41)

14) La Chimera (7.35)

17) May/December (7.28)

23) The Book of Solutions (7.14)

Other films that I've had on the TFF #50 watch list that finished below the top 25:

41) Occupied City (6.68)

55) Anselm (6.40)

66) The Old Oak (6.11)

93) Strange Way of Life (5.58)

97) The New boy (5.46)

And films that I haven't had my eye on but that Cannes put on my radar:

4) Anatomy of a Fall (7.79) (Palme d'Or winner)

11) Robot Dreams (7.43)

26) The Goldman Case (7.05)

27) How to Have Sex (7.03) (Un Certain Regard winner)

40) The Settlers 6.72

75) The Delinquents (5.96)

NEGLIA'S CANNES/TELLURIDE ANALYSIS

Next Best Picture's Matt Neglia posted a list of a number of films that played at the 76th Cannes Film Festival over the past two weeks that he feels could be in play to be selected for the TFF #50 lineup.  from Matt's Twitter feed:

From Matt's list I would certainly concur re: La Chimera, May/December, Monster and The Zone of Interest.

I'd tend to agree based on the critical reception that Palme d'Or winner Anatomy of a Fall and The Goldman case might be in play as well.  The others?  Maybe.

Other Cannes films that I think may be in play either from my pre-Cannes "feel" or because of their reception/buzz at Cannes include: Fallen Leaves, Perfect Days, Anselm, Strange Way of Life, The Book of Solutions, The Delinquents, The Settlers and maybe even the animated Robot Dreams.

As always, here is my plea to Paramount/Apple, Scorsese...who or whatever, to bring Killers of the Flower Moon to Telluride.

MIYAZAKI-NOT THIS TIME?

I had some thought that Hayao Miyazaki's How Do You Live? might make an appearance at Telluride.  He has had a significant presence at TFF over the years with Princess Mononoke, Spirited Away and The Wind Rises all having screened at TFF.  However, Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel reported yesterday that any festival screening of the new film is unlikely writing, in part:

"A few months ago, I was told Cannes boss Thierry Frémaux tried as hard as he could to get Hayao Miyazaki’s “How Do You Live”  in competition, but it seems as though Miyazaki just doesn’t want to do film festivals at all. Not even Venice.

Miyazaki and Studio Ghibli are perfectly content in having their latest film screen to the Japanese public before the rest of the world, just as they have done with almost every other film of his." 

Though the reporting is not absolute on the issue, Rumiy later in the post writes that skipping Venice is a "high possibility".

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Cannes Winners / Cannes and the Critics / NEON and Perfect Days

CANNES WINNERS

The 76th Cannes Film Festival came to a close with its awards presentation on Saturday night.  Justine Triet's Anatomy of a Fall took the top prize, the Palme d'Or.  Jonathan Glazer's The Zone of Interest took the Grand Prix, essentially the runner-up prize and Aki Kaurismaki's Fallen Leaves landed the Jury Prize, regarded as the third place prize.

Other awards went to:

Director: The Pot  au Feu/Tran Anh Hung

Screenplay: Monster/Sakamoto Fuji

Actress: About Dry Grasses/Merve Dizdar

Actor: Perfect Days/Koji Yakusho

Molly Manning Walker's How to Have Sex won the top award in the Un Certain Regards section.

You could make a relatively good case for most of the prize winners making the jump from Cannes to Telluride.  

All awards can be found here from Variety.

CANNES AND THE CRITICS

Here's where a number of the critics polls from Cannes landed for the Palme d'Or competition films at the end of the two weeks:

Screen Daily:

1) Fallen Leaves/Kaurismaki 3.2

2) Anatomy of a Fall/Triet 3.0

2) May December/Haynes 3.0

4) Perfect Days/Wneders 2.9

4) La Chimera/Rohrwacher 2.9

Glazer's The Zone of Interest was just outside of the top five.

The International Cinephile Society:

1) The Zone of Interest/Glazer 4.24

2) Anatomy of a Fall/Triet 3.85

3) Fallen Leaves/Kaurismaki 3.76

4) Last Summer/Breiliat 3.70

5) May December/Haynes 3.50

Ioncinema:

1) The Zone of Interest/Glazer 3.9

2) Fallen Leaves/Kaurismaki 3.7

3) Anatomy of a Fall/Triet 3.5

3) La Chimera/Rohrwacher 3.5

5) The Old Oak/Loach 3.4

Once again, connection issues have prevented access to Reini Urban's massive Cannes crtics compilation.

NEON AND PERFECT DAYS

Wim Wenders Perfect Days was taken by distributor NEON toward the end of the Cannes fest.  The acquisition probably increases the chance that the film makes an appearance at Telluride in three months.

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Couple of Deals to Note / Cannes and the Critics / Trailers and Clips: May/December, La Chimera, Perfect Days

A COUPLE OF DEALS OF NOTE

Two acquisition deals of note occurred at Cannes since last Monday's post.  

Netflix nabbed North American rights for Todd Haynes' May/December for $11 million.  May/December has long been  on the MTFB radar as a possible TFF #50 selection and while the Netflix action doesn't guarantee a TFF berth it sure doesn't hurt.

The other deal that caught my eye was from NEON which took North American rights for Justine Triet's Anatomy of a Fall.  Anatomy began the festival as just another Cannes title that I had not focused on regarding its TFF chances but with a very solid critical response (88 on Metacritic, 100% on RT),  Plame d'Or buzz and this acquisition from NEON, which has become a frequent contributor to the TFF lineup (Parasite, Broker, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed), I have to think that Anatomy of a Fall has emerged as a serious candidate for TFF inclusion.

Here is reporting from The Hollywood Reporter on the Netflix May/December deal and for the NEON deal for Anatomy of a Fall.

CANNES AND THE CRITICS

As the 76th Cannes Film Festival makes its turn into the final stretch...awards are Saturday night, here's a snapshot of where the critical reaction has been to films that have played thus far in the Palme d'Or competition.

The top five from Screen Daily:

1) Fallen Leaves 3.2

2) Anatomy of a Fall 3.0

2) May/December 3.0

4) The Zone of Interest 2.8

4) The Pot Au Feu 2.8

4) Youth 2.8

4) About Dry Grasses 2.8

The top five from Ioncinema:

1) The Zone of Interest 3.9

2) Fallen Leaves 3.8

3) Anatomy of a Fall 3.5

4) About Dry Grasses 3.4

5) May/December 3.3.

The top five from the International Cinephile Society:

1) The Zone of Interest 4.21

2) Fallen Leaves 3.88

3) Anatomy of a Fall 3.50

4) About Dry Grasses 3.42

5) Youth 3.33

Normally I would be including the massive critical compilation from Reini Urban but that link is currently down.

TRAILERS AND CLIPS

MAY/DECEMBER

LA CHIMERA

From NEON's Twitter account:

https://twitter.com/neonrated/status/1660999454034472962

PERFECT DAYS

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More Venice Rumblings / Cannes Critics Respond / Ten Bets in a Month

MORE VENICE RUMBLINGS

Now that Cannes is well and truly underway...see the critical reactions so far in the next bloc...speculation about what films that might be playing Venice is heating up.  As Venice spec heats up, so does the speculation about which films will play Venice and Telluride.  As I have mentioned before, the two fests now commonly share 6-7 titles per year.

Variety's Nick Vivarelli posted on Thursday a piece titled:  Beyond Cannes: Are Zendaya, Emma Stone and Bradley Cooper Already Packing Their Bags for Venice Film Festival?  

His claim is that there are a number of films already lined up for Venice.  Of the films mentioned in the article, a good number of them could be reasonable candidates to double-dip at Venice and T-ride including:

Poor Things/Lanthimos

Challengers/Guadagnino

Priscilla/S. Coppola

The Captain/Garrone

Maestro/Cooper

Nyad/Chin and Vasarhelyi

Saltburn/Fennell

The Book of Clarence/Samuels

The complete article is linked here.

CANNES CRITICS RESPOND

As Cannes is essentially at its midway point, here's a look at the critical response thus far with an eye toward what seem to be contenders for the Palme d'Or as well as a few other films a few other films of interest.

First, among the Palme d'Or competition films that have jumped to the fore in as far as the general critical reaction, at the top is Jonathan Glazer's The Zone of Interest.

Reini Urban's Critics compilation has Zone with an 8.22 average (on a 10 point scale) and the top comp film with more than 10 reviews averaged.  Hirokazu Kore-eda's Monster is second meeting that same criteria with a 7.69 average.  Regular readers will know that I have been tracking both of those films as TFF #50 possibilities for some time.  Also making some noise according to the Urban metric are Nuri Bilge Ceylan's About Dry Grasses (7.65),  Justine Triet's Anatomy of a Fall (7.50) and Todd Haynes' May/December (also on the MTFB TFF #50) watch list.

Among other films that I am watching that also meet the above criteria are the ecstatic reactions for Martin Scorsese's Killers of the flower Moon (8.57)

Michel Gondry's The Book of Solutions 7.48

Steve McQueen's Occupied City 6.45

Wim Wenders Anselm 6.41

Other films from Cannes that are on my TFF radar but that haven't screened yet or have fewer than 10 reviews as yet:

Perfect Days (Wenders)

The Old Oak (Loach)

La Chimera (Rohrwacher)

Strange Way of Life (Almodovar)

I have my eye on a couple of other critical compilations that focus exclusively on Palme contenders.  Those are from Ioncinema and the International Cinephile Society.  Ioncinema uses a four point scale while ICS uses a five points scale.

The top five on the Ioncinema list thus far:

1) The Zone of Interest (Glazer) 3.9

2) About Dry Grasses (Ceylan) 3.4

3) May/December (Haynes) 3.3

3) Anatomy of a Fall (Triet) 3.3

5) Monster (Kore-eda) 3.2

5) Youth (Bing) 3.2

The top five on the ICS chart are:

1) The Zone of Interest (Glazer) 4.18

2) Anatomy of a Fall (Triet) 3.67

3) May/December (Haynes) 3.50

4) About Dry Grasses (Ceylan) 3.46

5) Youth (Bing) 3.33

And finally from Metacritic and Rotten Tomatoes

Killers of the Flower Moon  Meta: 91  RT: 97

The Zone of Interest  Meta: 99  RT: 100

May/December  Meta: 82  RT: 93

Anatomy of a Fall  Meta: 90  RT: 100

Monster  Meta: 79  RT: 100

TEN BETS IN A MONTH

Mark it on your calendars...MTFB's first Ten bets for the 50th edition of the Telluride Film Festival is headed your way on June 22nd.  What might you expect?  Mid-level prediction success!  I looked back over the last 11 years (leaving out the Covid year of 2020) and here is my accuracy for each of the first time "Ten Bets" since I began formatting my predictions this way in 2011:

2011: 8/10
2012: 5/10
2013: 6/10
2014: 7/10
2015: 4/10
2016: 3/10
2017: 7/10
2018: 5/10

2019: 4/10

2020: No Fest

2021: 8/10

2022: 6/10

My average over the 11 years of "Betting" is 5.7 correct films from the first Ten Bets each year.  Not bad but also not burning the house down either.

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Cannes Opening Imminent - Top Possibilities / WOR and the Best of the '60's -Part Two / Looks At: Poor Things and Cobweb

CANNES OPENING IMMINENT-TOP POSSIBILITIES

Set photo from Jonathan Glazer's The Zone of Interest

The 76th Cannes Film Festival is just hours away from its opening and MTFB continues to monitor the pre-fest buzz for films that could make the trans-Atlantic crossing from France to southwestern Colorado on Labor Day weekend.

As frequent readers know, traditionally many films make the Cannes/Telluride Two-Step each year.  On average (based on the last 12 years) there are 7-8 films that make that double-play.  Last year nine films made the trip including Aftersun, Armageddon Time, Broker, Close, Holy Spider and The Pupils.

As we near the start of this year's fest on The Croisette, Indiewire has published their list of "Most Anticipated" titles.  Looking at that, here's another stab from that list at what might SHOW up at T-ride:

La Chimera/Rohrwacher

Fallen Leaves/Kaurismaki

Killer of the Flower Moon/Scorsese

May/December/Haynes

Monster/Kore-eda

Strange Way of Life/Almodovar

The Zone of Interest/Glazer

The complete Indiewire story and list are linked here.

As always, I'll be keeping track of the critical reaction from Cannes as that can sometimes point to the viability of films moving forward. Here are the dates that some of the films of interest will be having their initial public screening:

In Palme competition:

Monster 5/17

The Zone of Interest 5/19

May/December 5/20

Perfect Days 5/25

La Chimera 5/26

The Old Oak 5/26

Others not in Palme Competition:

Occupied City 5/17

Strange Way of Life 5/17

Anselm 5/17

The New Boy 5/19

Killers of the Flower Moon 5/20

Cobweb 5/25

Closing night ceremonies will take place on May 27th.

WOR AND THE BEST OF THE 60'S -PART TWO

Last Thursday I wrote about participating in World of Reel's poll of the greatest films of the 1960's.  Since that post WOR head man Jordan Ruimy has published the individual ballots of all 130+ people who participated.  That let me see how my list of ten great films of the 60's stacked up with everyone else.

 Here's my list of ten and where they landed within the top 40 that Ruimy posted last week:

2001: A Space Odyssey (1)

The Apartment (9)

Cool Hand Luke

Dr. Strangelove (3)

The Graduate (5)

The Hustler 

Lawrence of Arabia (4)

Midnight Cowboy (17)

To Kill a Mockingbird

They Shoot Horses Don't They

As to the films that I listed that did not make the Top 40, here's the number of ballots they had with this note, it took 7 ballots to make the Top 40.:

Cool Hand Luke-5

The Hustler-5

To Kill a Mockingbird- 6

They Shoot Horses Don't They-3

The complete list of individual ballots is here.

LOOKS AT: POOR THINGS, COBWEB AND  ANSLEM

POOR THINGS TEASER

I will admit that I am fascinated by what this Yorgos Lanthimos film might be.  Additionally, I'm a big fan of Emma Stone  The IMDb description:

"The incredible tale and fantastical evolution of Bella Baxter (Stone), a young woman brought back to life by the brilliant and unorthodox scientist Dr. Godwin Baxter (Dafoe)."

Here's the teaser from YouTube that was released by Searchlight on May 11th:

Here's The Hollywood Reporter on the film.

COBWEB

I have Director Kin Jee-woon's Cobweb as an outside shot to make the lineup for TFF #50.  It play's in an Out-of-Competition slot.

The IMDb Desription:

"an experimental and genre-defying drama shot entirely on sound stages in support of a film-within-a-film narrative."

Here's the trailer with subtitles from YouTube:

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Venice Thoughts / The Killer Not Playing? / Photos: May/December and The Zone of Interest / Trailer for Squaring the Circle / Assessing the 60's

VENICE THOUGHTS

News this week that writer/director Damien Chazelle (whose La La Land and First Man both played TFF) has been named the Jury President for the Venice Film Festival's Golden Lion competition.  As a part of reporting that story Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel included a compilation of films he says have a real shot at making the Venice lineup.  TFF watchers take note as the Venice/Telluride connection is historically almost, but not quite, as pronounced as the Cannes/T-ride connection.

Over the past ten years Venice and Telluride have, on average, shared 6-7 films per year.  As a consequence, paying attention to Venice titles and also when they get scheduled for their initial screening in Italy can often give us clues as to what may play both places.  Thus, the interest in Ruimy's ruminations.  He lists 25+ films.  Here's my take on the Telluride prospects for some of them if Ruimy is correct.

Most Likely: The Holdovers (Payne)

Decent Chance: Strangers (Haight), Poor Things (Lanthimos), The Royal Hotel (Green), El Condo (Larrain)

Could Be: Priscilla (Coppola), Challengers (Guadagnino), Saltburn (Fennell), The Bikeriders (Nichols)

Wishes: Maestro (Cooper)

Ruimy's complete list is here.

THE KILLER NOT PLAYING?

Photo via IMDb

One of my "most hoped for" titles for TFF #50 is David Fincher's The Killer starring Michael Fassbender but World of Reel reported this week that the buzz is that it may skip fall fests altogether.    In his latest update about the film, WOR 's Jordan Ruimy writes:

"Last month, I posted a reaction to Fincher’s upcoming film. It was very positive. From what I understood, Netflix hadn’t made a decision on whether or not this would go to festivals such as Venice and Telluride, but they’re leaning towards skipping them."

Now, I have always thought that The Killer's TFF chances were slim but this latest dash of cold water seems to make it even more unlikely.  I guess it's worth noting that the tidbit from WOR is not definitive as the phrase is "leaning towards skipping'...but...well...

Ruimy's post re: The Killer is linked here.

PHOTOS

First looks at:

MAY/DECEMBER (Haynes)

THE ZONE OF INTEREST (Glazer)

From the Gazeta Krakowska:

TRAILER FOR SQUARING THE CIRCLE

We have a trailer for Anton Corbijn's Squaring the Circle (The Story of Hipgnosis) that played at TFF #49:

ASSESSING THE 60'S

Speaking of World of Reel, Jordan has asked me to submit a ballot for his upcoming post about the greatest films of the 1960's.  I think that is likely to be posted this week sometime.  Previously Ruimy has posted lists for the 1970's, 80's, 90's, 00's and the 2010's.  I've been fortunate enough to have been included in all but the 80's list.

I started with a list of around 20 films and then culled it down to the ten that Ruimy requested.  Here's what I voted for in alphabetical order:

2001: A Space Odyssey

The Apartment 

Cool Hand Luke

Dr. Strangelove

The Graduate

The Hustler 

Lawrence of Arabia

Midnight Cowboy 

To Kill a Mockingbird

They Shoot Horses Don't They

We'll see where they end up later this week.  My guess is that 2001 comes in at the top spot.

Here's Jordan's last post teasing the 1960's poll which includes links to all of the previous decades' polls.

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