Let's Talk Big Picture: Part Two / THR's Best 50 Movies of the 21st Century and Telluride / One More Guess at Cannes

 LET'S TALK BIG PICTURE: PART TWO

In this second look at where we are regarding possible TFF #50 players I've collected a list of all of the titles that I have posted as possibilities based upon ten different articles from over the past few months.  The articles focus on one of four areas: "Most Anticipated Films" for 2023, "Early Oscar Predictions", "Cannes Speculation" and "Venice Speculation".

The ten articles/posts are:

The Playlist's Most Anticipated

The Film Stage's Most Anticipated

Variety's Early Oscar Predictions

Next Best Picture's Early Oscar Predictions

A.V. Club's Early Oscar Predictions

Ioncinema's Cannes Spec

Indiewire's Cannes Spec

Screen Daily's Cannes Spec

World of Reel's Cannes Spec

World of Reel's Venice Spec

And from all that, here are 57 films that could play Telluride:

The Actor/Johnson

AND*/Lanthimos

The Bastard/Arcel

Blitz*/McQueen

The Book of Clarence/Samuel

The Book of Solutions*/Gondry

Butterfly Jam/Balagov

The Captain (Io Capitano)*/Garrone

Caste/DuVernay

Challengers/Guadagnino

Cobweb/Bodin

The Color Purple*/Bazawule

Daaaaaali!/Dupieux

Die My Love/Ramsay

El Conde/Larrian

Emilia Perez/Audiard

The End/Oppenheimer

Fallen Leaves*/Kaurismaki

Fingernails/Nikou

Flint Strong/Morrison

Foe/Davis

Freud's Last Session/Brown

The Holdovers*/Payne

How Do You Live?*/Miyazaki

The Island/Pawlikowski

The Killer*+/Fincher

Killers of the Flower Moon*+/Scorsese

La Chimera/Rohrwacher

Lee/Kuras

A Little Prayer/MacLachlan

Longlegs/Perkins

Love Lies Bleeding/Glass

Maestro*+/Cooper

May/December*/Haynes

Monster*/Kore-eda

Mother's' Instinct/Delhomme

My Crime (The Crime Is Mine)/Ozon

Napoleon/Scott

The New Boy/Thornton

Next Goal Wins*/Waititi

Nightbitch/Heller

Nyad/Chin and Vasarhelyi

The Old Oak/Loach

Orwell/Peck

Poor Things*/Lanthimos

Priscilla*/Coppola

The Royal Hotel*/Green

Rustin*/Wolfe

Saltburn/Fennell

Shirley/Ridley

Strangers*/Haigh

Tokyo Toilet/Wenders

Untitled Bob Marley Biopic/Green

Untitled Sean Baker Film/Baker

The Way of the Wind/Malick

The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar/Anderson

The Zone of Interest*/Glazer

*Film that I have included on three or more previous lists

+Film that's more a wish than a prediction

My first Ten Bets are coming in ten weeks (unless I get restless and pop them early).

THR'S BEST 50 MOVIES OF THE 21ST CENTURY

The Hollywood Reporter's gaggle of critics published their list of the 50 best films of the 2000's late last week and, to no one's surprise...there was some disagreement.  I, for one, was mystified that Paul Thomas Anderson's There will Be Blood merited only an honorable mention and The Master was nowhere to be found.  Also, the Coen Brothers' No Country for Old Men...not a peep.  Still, looking at the 50 films plus the honorable mention, TFF has been a launching pad for a bunch of THR's choices.

Among honorable mentions from TFF: Cache, L'Enfant, Under the Skin and Waltz with Bashir.

TFF films in the list of 50:

47-Bright Star

44-Things to Come

35-The Favourite

33-Portrait of a Lady on Fire

31-Manchester by the Sea

21-Parasite

20-Far from Heaven

18-Shoplifters

17-Talk to Her

15-The Power of the Dog

12-Moonlight

9-4 Months, Three Weeks and Two Days

7-Brokeback Mountain

6-Spirited Away

5-Mulholland Drive

4-Zodiac

2-Inside Llewyn Davis

1-Yi Yi

The complete post is linked here.

ONE MORE GUESS AT CANNES

Cineuropa has a post up as of last Thursday with an extensive list of potential titles at Cannes.  Many of  what not seem to be the usual suspects are there which also provides many of the same titles that I am eyeballing as possible Cannes/Telluride crossover films.  Among them:

Monster/Kore-eda

Fallen Leaves/Kaurismaki

Poor Things/Lanthimos

The Holdovers/Payne

May/December/Haynes

The New Boy/Thornton

The Bikeriders/Nichols

The Captain/Garrone

Daaaaaali!/Dupieux

Ricardo et la Peinture/Schroeder

The complete and extensive set of guesses is linked here.

Will have actual Cannes titles for my next post on April 13th.

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Variety's Early Oscar #96 Outlook / Some Hints and Allegations

VARIETY'S EARLY OSCAR #96 OUTLOOK

I'm continuing to check in with early predictions for next year's Oscars that might give us some clues about possible TFF #50 films and today's candidate is Variety's Oscar guru Clayton Davis.  

Davis put up his first stab last week and I have combed through it over the last few days.  Davis has the post organized by distributor so I'll follow along  focusing on films that he has mentioned in the eight "major" categories: Picture, Director, the four Acting categories and the two screen writing categories.  

Here's what I have so far:

Apple: Killers of the Flower Moon (Scorsese) and Napoleon (Scott).  We should be hearing soon officially that KOTFM will be at Cannes and maybe get an actual domestic release date.  Maybe even a teaser/trailer?  Maybe Napoleon wits until 2024. Though I continue to offer up prayers to the programming gods...I 'm still realistically putting Killer's chances of a TFF #50 screening at 10%.

Netflix:  Maestro (Cooper), The Killer (Fincher), Rustin (Wolfe), Nyad (Chin/Vasarhelyi) and Caste (DuVernay).  At the moment I feel like all of these are low level possibilities with the exception of Nyad.  It feels like the most likely prospect from the Netflix list.  At least for now.  Nyad's chances 25%.  The rest of the list 10%.

Amazon/MGM: Saltburn (Fennell) and Flint Strong (Morrison).  I have a fairly optimistic view for each of these films.  Moreso Flint Strong  than Saltburn.  Put Flint Strong at 30% and Saltburn at 25%.

Warners: The Color Purple (Bazawule).  Warners also has Wonka and Dune 2 coming but I think that those two films have almost 0% chance at a Telluride play.  As to The Color Purple...I'm slightly more bullish on its chances but only slightly.  Mark it at 10%.  Warners may have players that will have already been released prior to TFF #50 in Ben Affleck's Air which seems to have been big hit at South by Southwest (which is where Everything Everywhere All at Once premiered last year on its way to seven Oscars) and Greta Gerwig's Barbie which will pop on July 21st...the same day as Christopher Nolan's Oppenheimer.

Searchlight: Next Goal Wins (Waititi), Poor Things (Lanthimos) and Strangers (Haigh).  With Haigh's recent TFF history (45 Years, Lean on Pete) and a TFF friendly cast (Paul Mescal, Claire Foy) this feels like Searchlight's most likely TFF entrant.  Poor Things also seems a real possibility.  Next Goal Wins feels likely even though its release date was recently moved from the summer to the post-Telluride, Venice and even Toronto date of Sept. 22.

NEON: The Actor (Johnson), Mother's Instinct (Delhomme) and Longlegs (Perkins) are all mentioned by Davis but I don't really have strong feeling at the moment that any of them are TFF possibilities.

Focus Features: Clayton mentions Asteroid City (W. Anderson) and The Holdovers (Payne).  Asteroid City...which intrigues me, won't be doing any of the fall fests as it is currently dated for release on June 23.  The Holdovers however...Alexander Payne's bounce back from Downsizing which is rumored to be a "return to form".  It's scheduled release date of Nov. 22 puts right smack in the middle of the convo for fall fests.  It is currently my pick as the best chance at a Telluride berth.

Sony Pictures Classics: Davis lists A Little Prayer, Shayda and Freud's Last Session.  Though it played Sundance, I have already written that A Little Prayer might follow the same path that Manchester by the Sea, Living, The Report and The Father (had TFF #47 had happened) did and show up at The SHOW.  Shayda screened at Sundance as well but doesn't fit the same profile as A Little Prayer.  Finally, about Freud's Last Session...its production status is murky.  None of these seem like a slam dunk but SPC's TFF history is long so expect some thing(s) from them at the 50th.

A24: Davis mentions Past Lives (Song) which played Sundance and has a June 2 release date and Sofia Coppola's Priscilla which seems like it could be a TFF possibility.  The Coppola name has often been a part of the fest dating back to year one but Sofia's one Telluride outing was Lost in Translation back in 2003.

Davis mentions films from Bleecker Street and IFC which will all have been released prior to TFF #50.

One other intriguing note is Davis's highlighting of Jeymes Samuel's The Book of Clarence.  He has it predicted for five Oscar nominations including Best Picture, Direction and Actor.  The film is from Sony/Legendary- neither of which has had a Telluride profile but its reported release date of Sept. 22nd and its stacked cast (Cumberbatch, McAvoy, Stanfield, Oyelowo) makes you have to at least consider the possibility.

  

And a quick note about one of Clayton's predictions for Best Animated Feature: Hayao Miyazaki's How Do You Live?  Considering Telluride's penchant for screening Miyazaki (The Wind Rises, Spirited Away, Princess Mononoke) and with this, perhaps being his last film, you have to think it's a realistic possibility.

Here's the entire piece from Davis/Variety. 

SOME HINTS AND ALLEGATIONS

As April looms I thought I'd mention two or three things that will be important as far as the Blog is concerned.

It looks like MTFB will pass a couple of landmarks before TFF #50 takes off.  Look for those announcements.

MTFB will be dormant after the April 13th post until May 4th.

I'm cooking up some pieces that will be special to the 50th edition of The SHOW some of which will need reader participation.  I'm talking Tribute histories, Guest Directors and possible selections. Hope that's fun and that you'll join in when prompted.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

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Tom Luddy 1943-2023 / MTFB Oscar Update: Screenplays and More / Detective Work / Visitations: Claire Foy of Women Talking

TOM LUDDY 1943-2023

(photo via Indiewire)

As we found out on Valentine's Day, Telluride Film Festival co-founder Tom Luddy died on Feb. 13th  in California.  I posted the Fest's press release on Tuesday in a special MTFB post.  You can see that here. 

Luddy's passing was duly noted by many film industry outlets:

Variety

The Hollywood Reporter

Deadline

Indiewire

The Wrap

The Los Angeles Times

 MTFB OSCAR UPDATE:SCREENPLAYS AND MORE

Here's the first update of my current predictions for what will win Oscars in the Screenplay categories as well as Score, Song, Cinematography and Editing.  Previous rank for each film is in parentheses to the right and TFF films are in Bold.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Women Talking (1)

2) All Quiet on the Western Front (2)

3) Glass Onion (4)

4) Living (3)

5) Top Gun: Maverick (5)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) The Banshees of Inisherin (2)

2) Everything Everywhere All at Once (1)

3) TAR (4)

4) The Fabelmans (3)

5) Triangle of Sadness (5)

SCORE

1) Babylon (1)

2) The Fabelmans (2)

3) All Quiet on the Western Front (3)

4) The Banshees of Inisherin (4)

5) Everything Everywhere All at Once (5)

SONG

1) Naatu Naatu/RRR (1)

2) Hold My Hand/Top Gun: Maverick (2)

3) Lift Me Up/Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (3)

4) This Is a Life/Everything Everywhere (4)

5) Applause/Tell It Like a Woman (5)

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) All Quiet on the Western Front (2)

2) Elvis (1)

3) TAR (3)

4) Empire of Light (4)

5) Bardo (5)

EDITING

1) Top Gun: Maverick (1)

2) Everything Everywhere All at Once (2)

3) Elvis (3)

4) The Banshees of Inisherin (4)

5)TAR (5)

Comment:

In a couple of close races I have shuffled the top two.  In Original Screenplay I have moved Banshees ahead of Everything Everywhere and in Cinematography I have moved All Quiet ahead of Elvis.  In both instances the race is tight and fluid.  I could change back tomorrow.  As an extra side note, I could see TAR crashing the party in both of these categories as well.

I'll be updating predictions for Animated, International and Documentary features as well as Production Design, Costumes and Makeup/Hair in next Monday's post.

DETECTIVE WORK

Last year I was really a believer early on that Living would make the trip to Telluride despite having played at Sundance seven months earlier.  Some of that was a hunch but some if it was also based on recent TFF history.  

Prior to TFF #49, there had been two other recent instances where high profile awards contenders screened at Sundance originally and then moved to Telluride.  In 2016 Casey Affleck's Oscar winning turn in Manchester by the Sea bowed at Sundance and then Affleck was a tribute recipient at TFF #43.  Then in 2019 Adam Driver followed the same route with The Report at Sundance followed by a tribute and Telluride slot for the film plus Marriage Story.

In 2020, The Father was on the released list of films that would have screened at TFF #47 had it happened.  Anthony Hopkins was said to have been a tribute recipient.  Of course, Hopkins would win the Oscar for Best Actor.

In each of these cases the films also shared the distinction of being distributed by outfits that have had good ties to TFF.  In the cases of Manchester and The Report it was Amazon Studios and for The Father and Living it was Sony Pictures Classics.

All of that is to get to this which is the late January news that SPC bought distribution rights to Sundance film A Little Prayer from writer/director Angus MacLachlan (Junebug and Abundant Acreage Available) .  And what really got to me look at this was a post from Gold Derby this week mentioning 2024 Oscar buzz (yes, already) for David Strathairn's performance. 

A little bell started dinging in my head.  It fits the recent profile.  So, maybe for TFF #50, A Little Prayer from SPC starring Strathairn and a possible tribute for the longtime actor.  Don't be surprised if that is on the first "Ten Bets: for TFF #50 in June.

David Strathairn's IMDb page.

Angus MacLachan's IMDb page.

VISITATIONS

WOMEN TALKING:  Claire Foy for Harpers's Bazaar.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

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