POST OSCAR NOMINATION THOUGHTS
So after last Tuesday we have moved to the final phase of the 95th Oscar season in which Academy voters will winnow nominees down to winners in the 23 categories. Final voting runs from March 2nd and ends March 7th with the ceremony set for March 12th.
Some random thoughts about what we know and what might be coming.
Everything Everywhere All at Once was always going to have a big morning last Tuesday but even the EEAAO crew had to be a little surprised that the film picked up 11 nominations and was the only film earning double digit nominations.
All Quiet on the Western Front; I had it getting nine nominations and was pretty queasy that I had gone overboard assessing its chances. I really did think that my predilection for picking it would wreck my overall level accuracy. In so many of its categories I had it getting in at the fifth spot. Shaky at best. But all turned out fairly well. AQOTHWF did get nine nominations. My predictions very nearly matched nomination for nomination save for picking Edward Berger getting in for Best Direction. That didn't happen but the film picked up a nomination for Original Score which put it at nine total nominations.
TFF: TAR overperformed a bit with its six nominations. I had it predicted for four (Picture, Direction, Actress and Original screenplay) all of which it got in addition to Cinematography and Editing.
I had hoped Women Talking would get a least Supporting Acting nomination and had predicted a Best Original Score nomination but those did not materialize. I was gratified that it pulled in that Best Picture nomination. Many thought that it would not and my prediction was shaky.
I was also very pleased to see Bill Nighy get his first ever Oscar nomination.
Ultimately I had TFF films earning 16 nominations and they ended up with 17.
I was [leased that I went 93 for 120 for a success rate of 77.5% which, I gather, was a respectable number for Oscarologists. Over at Gold Derby I would have finished behind just two experts: Indiewire's Anne Thompson who was tops with 95/120 and Gold Derby's Joyce Eng who had 94/120.
So yeah, it's true. I outperformed a bunch of the folks who get paid to do this stuff. Here's the link to all of the experts scores from Gold Derby.
Now it's on to March 12th. Several actual races to make this a fun end to the awards season. The Best Picture front runner right now seems to be Everything Everywhere but it's certainly not a lock. Best Actor seems like a tight race between Fraser, Butler and Farrell. Best Actress looks like a showdown between Blanchett and Yeoh. Supporting Actress seems to be leaning toward Angela Bassett but I wouldn't count out Condon or Curtis. Supporting Actor looks like a slam dunk for Ke Huy Quan. Best Direction appears to be a battle between The Daniels (Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinart) and Steven Spielberg.
I'll start predicting for the winners in next Monday's post.
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