MTFB Oscar Take: Updating Best Picture and Direction / Davis' TFF #49 Predix / Visitations: Anne Hathaway, James Gray and More

MTFB OSCAR TAKE: UPDATING BEST PICTURE AND DIRECTION

In today's post I am updating Oscar predictions for Best Picture and Best Direction which were last posted on Oct. 20th.  TFF #49 films are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) The Fabelmans (1)

2) The Banshees of Inisherin (2)

3) Women Talking (3)

4) Everything Everywhere All at Once (4)

5) TAR (6)

6) Top Gun: Maverick (5)

7) Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (9)

8) Babylon (7) 

9) She Said (10)

10) Elvis (8)

11) Triangle of Sadness (New)

12) Empire of Light (12)

Out: The Woman King

Ought to think about: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On and Armageddon Time

BEST DIRECTION

1) Steven Spielberg/The Fabelmans (1)

2) Sarah Polley/Women Talking (2)

3) Martin McDonagh/The Banshees of Inisherin (4)

4) Todd Field/TAR (3)

5) The Daniels/EEAAO (5)

6) Damien Chazelle/Babylon (6)

7) Rueben Ostlund/Triangle of Sadness (New)

Dropping out: Sam Mendes/Empire of Light 

DAVIS' TFF #49 PREDIX

I'm keeping tabs this year on some of the Oscar prognosticators out there and what nominations they think TFF #49 films will earn when that announcement comes of the morning of Jan. 24th.

I started with Variety's Clayton Davis back on Sept. 26th.  At that time, this is what Davis had for TFF films:

Women Talking (7 nominations): Picture, Direction, Supporting Actress/Buckley, Supporting Actress/Foy, Supporting Actress/Ivey, Supporting Actor/Whishaw, Adapted Screenplay

TAR (5 nominations): Picture, Direction, Actress/Blanchett, Supporting Actress/Hoss, Original Screenplay

Empire of Light (3 nominations): Picture, Actress/Colman and Cinematography

Bardo (2 nominations) International Feature, Cinematography

Single nominations:

Living: Best Actor/Nighy

Close: International Feature

Holy Spider: International Feature

***Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (TFF #48): Best Animated Feature

Now, five and a half weeks later, this is what Mr. Davis has:

Women Talking (5 nominations): Best Picture, Direction/Polley, Supporting Actress/Buckley, Adapted Screenplay and Score.  Davis has dropped acting noms for Care Foy and Ben Whishaw.

TAR (5 nominations): Best Picture, Direction (Field), Actress (Blanchett), Supporting Actress/Hoss, Original Screenplay.  No changes.

Living (3 nominations): Best Picture, Actor/Nighy, Adapted Screenplay.  Davis has added Living to the Best Picture and Adapted Screenplay predictions.

Empire of Light (2 nominations): Best Cinematography and Original Score.  Empire has been dropped from Best Picture and Best Actress.

Single nominations:

Good Night Oppy: Documentary

Sr.: Documentary

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed: Documentary

Retrograde: Documentary

Holy Spider: International Feature

Close: International Feature

Total TFF #49 nominations predicted by Davis at this time: 21

Davis' full predictions can be accessed here.

VISITATIONS:

Anne Hathaway in Indiewire on Armageddon Time

Banks Repeta at Gold Derby on Armageddon Time

Screenwriter David Kajganich at Gold Derby on Bones and All

Director/Writer James Gray at The Hollywood Reporter on Armageddon Time

James Gray with The Playlist on Armageddon Time

Actor Michael Ward with Variety on Empire of Light

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

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MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

MTFB Oscar Take: Updated Screenplay Predix / Magidson's Oscar Predictions and TFF #49 / Visitations: Hathaway and Gray

MTFB OSCAR TAKE: UPDATED SCREENPLAY PREDIX

Today I am updating predictions in the categories of Best Original and Adapted Screenplay.  These were last predicted on Oct. 17th.  Past ranking is to the right of the performer in parentheses.  Films from TFF #49 are in Bold.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Women Talking (1)

2) Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (2)

3) She Said (4)

4) The Whale (3)

5) White Noise (5)

6) Living (6)

7) Top Gun: Maverick (7)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Everything Everywhere All at Once (1)

2) The Banshees of Inisherin (2)

3) The Fabelmans (3)

4) TAR (4)

5) Triangle of Sadness (5)

6) Babylon (7) 

7) Armageddon Time (6)

JOEY MAGIDSON'S OSCAR PREDICTIONS AND TFF #49

I am continuing my series wherein I check the Oscar predictions of a number of experts and how they have situated films that played at TFF #49.  Previously I have passed along predictions from Variety's Clayton Davis, The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg and Awards Watch's Erik Anderson,  Entertainment Weekly's Dave Karger, Next Best Picture's Matt Neglia and Nathaniel Rogers of The Film Experience. 

Today I'm highlighting Joey Magidson who runs Awards Radar.  Magidson has 17 of the 23 feature categories listed.  Here's what Joey currently has predicted at his site for TFF #49 films (total predicited nominations in parentheses):

Women Talking (7): Best Picture, Direction (Polley), Supporting Actress (Buckley), Supporting Actress (Foy), Supporting Actor (Whishaw), Adapted Screenplay and Costumes.

TAR (7): Best Picture, Direction (Field), Actress (Blanchett), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing and Original Score.

Armageddon Time (3): Supporting Actress (Hathaway), Supporting Actor (Hopkins) and Original Screenplay.

Empire of Light (1): Best Picture.

Living (1): Best Actor (Nighy).

Bardo (1): Best Cinematography

AND...from TFF #48: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (1): Best Animated Feature.

So Magidson has 20 nominations going to TFF #49 films plus Marcel from TFF #48.

The complete Awards Radar predictions can be found here.

VISITATIONS

Insider.com with Anne Hathaway and Jeremy Strong on Armageddon Time

Indiewire with James Gray on Armageddon Time

The Playlist with James Gray on Armageddon Time

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

Star Gazing at TFF #49 / The Story of Film: A New Generation Trailer / Armageddon to NYFF / A Compassionate Spy Appears Confirmed

STAR GAZING AT TFF #49

Who might be joining us mere mortals in the San Juans in just a few weeks?  Working from my current Ten (Plus) Bets list, here are some possibilities (listed by film) with past TFF Guests indicated with ***:

Armageddon Time: Anne Hathaway, Jeremy Strong, Anthony Hopkins (who may have been a Tribute recipient had there been a TFF #47) and Jessica Chastain.

Bones and All: Timothee Chalamet, Taylor Russell***, Michael Stuhlbarg, Mark Rylance, Chloe Sevigny***.

Empire of Light: Colin Firth*** (Tribute 2010), Olivia Colman, Toby Jones.

One Fine Morning: Lea Seydoux***.

The Pale Blue Eye: Christian Bale***, Henry Melling, Gillian Anderson, Robert Duvall

TAR: Cate Blanchett, Mark Strong

Women Talking: Jesse Buckley, Rooney Mara*** (Tribute 2015), Clare Foy, Ben Whishaw, Frances McDormand.

The Wonder: Florence Pugh.

Hot prospects for Tributes include Cate Blanchett, Anne Hathaway, Olivia Colman and Frances McDormand.

THE STORY OF FILM: A NEW GENERATION TRAILER

TFF "Usual Suspect" Mark Cousins has a couple of projects that could make a splash at TFF #49.  One is an updating of sorts of his The Story of Film.  That film is The Story of Film: A New Generation and comes 10 years after the original.  The new version has a new trailer which dropped last week.  Here that is via YouTube:

Additionally, Cousins has a new documentary that will land at Venice and then could end up at Telluride.  March on Rome which is described at IMDb as a film that:

"Depicts the ascent of fascism in Italy, and its fallout across 1930s Europe."

I wouldn't be stunned if both films were screened at the fest.

ARMAGEDDON AT NYFF

The New York Film festival has announced that James Gray's Armageddon Time will play as a "Main Slate selection".  The announcement from NYFF is a little bit cagey with its language about the premiere status of the film:

"The premiere has been designated a special 60th anniversary screening event celebrating the history of the festival, featuring Gray and cast in attendance, along with NYFF filmmakers and supporters who have been integral to the festival’s success." 

There's no actual mention of its premiere status despite using the word premiere" in the announcement.  If the film isn't playing TFF/TIFF then New York could and likely would bill it as an North American premiere.  Also, the "60th anniversary screening event" language makes me think that the film plays somewhere else before NYFF.

So I'm going to stand pat, for the moment anyway, that Armageddon Time still screens at TFF #49.

NYFF's announcement is linked here.

A COMPASSIONATE SPY APPEARS CONFIRMED

Jordan Ruimy/World of Reel continues to be a fount of info regarding festival season.  In one of his later posts he seems to confirm that Steve James' A Compassionate Spy is headed for Telluride:

"Then there’s Steve James’ “A Compassionate Spy,” set to premiere at Venice, Telluride, Toronto and Chicago."

I reported here a week ago that the documentary looked like it was  headed to TFF #49 based on a Chicago Tribune story which included this:

"Though the filmmaker could not confirm the near-future for his latest project, many world premieres start at Venice and then go straight to a U.S. premiere at the Telluride Film Festival in Colorado a few days later."

And:

"James wrapped up principal photography in April, and his producers at Participant Media suggested submitting the film for Venice (Aug. 31-Sept. 10) and Telluride (Sept. 2-5)."

Jordan's full story is here.

PS...another doc that Jordan mentions is Laura Poitras' All the Beauty and the Bloodshed" has also been announced as NYFF's Centerpiece and os absent any premiere designation for that fest as far as I can tell.  

That leads me to think that we might consider it as a TFF #49 prospect.  The film focuses on the work of photographer Nan Goldin and her fight against the Sackler family (Purdue Pharma).  

Goldin's story was recently included as a part of the Hulu miniseries Dopesick.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

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MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays