Today I am updating predictions in the categories of Best Original and Adapted Screenplay. These were last predicted on Oct. 31st. Past ranking is to the right of the performer in parentheses. Films from TFF #49 are in Bold.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) Women Talking (1)
2) Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (2)
3) The Whale (4)
4) She Said (3)
5) Living (6)
6) White Noise (5)
7) Top Gun: Maverick (7)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) The Banshees of Inisherin (1)
2) Everything Everywhere All at Once (2)
3) The Fabelmans (3)
4) TAR (4)
5) Triangle of Sadness (5)
6) Babylon (7)
7) Elvis (New)
Dropping Out: Armageddon Time
UPDATING FROM FEINBERG
I last reported on Scott Feinberg's, The Hollywood Reporter's Oscar expert, predictions on Sept. 29th. I am updating with Feinberg's most recent predictions in as far as Telluride 2022 films are concerned. Here's what Feinberg had on 9/29:
Women Talking: Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actress/Foy, Supporting Actress/Buckley, Adapted Screenplay
TAR: Best Picture, Direction, Actress/Blanchett
Empire of Light: Best Actress/Colman
Close: International Feature
Holy Spider: International Feature
Bardo: International Feature
Goodnight Oppy: Documentary Feature
Retrograde: Documentary Feature
TFF #49 films that Feinberg is currently predicting to be Oscar nominated (in the 11 categories he has predicted):
Women Talking (5): Picture, Direction (Polley), Supporting Actress (Foy), Supporting Actress (Buckley), Adapted Screenplay. Women Talking is also listed as a major threat for two other nominations: Actress (Mara) and Supporting Actor (Whishaw).
TAR (3): Picture, Direction (Field), Actress (Blanchett). TAR is also predicted as a major threat for two other nominations: Supporting Actress (Hoss) and Original Screenplay.
Close (1): International Feature. Close is also a major threat for two other nominations: Direction (Dhont) and Original Screenplay.
Holy Spider (1): International Feature
Three TFF #49 documentaries are predicted to be nominated for Best Documentary: Good Night Oppy, Retrograde and Last Flight Home. Also predicted here is Navalny which is a borderline TFF pick as it screened in Elks Park prior to the start of the fest.
So Feinberg has TFF #49 films with a total of 13 nominations in 11 categories. That's down a couple from his first set of predictions reported here on Sept. 29th.
A number of TFF #49 films are named as "Major Threats" in several categories including:
Living: Picture, Actor (Nighy) and Adapted Screenplay
Armageddon Time: Picture, Supporting Actor (Strong), Original Screenplay
Empire of Light: Actress (Colman), Supporting Actor (Ward)
Lady Chatterley's Lover: Adapted Screenplay
The Wonder: Adapted Screenplay
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed: Documentary
Sr. Documentary
The Return of Tanya Tucker: Documentary
Bardo: International Feature
Bones and All: Original Song
VISITATIONS
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com
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