Twenty (Plus) Bets for TFF #53-Vol. 10 / Talking Tributes / Club Kid Trailer and Poster / Digger to Bow in London

TWENTY (PLUS) BETS FOR TFF #53

Last week's 20 Bets:

 1) Elsinore

2) The Debut

3) Ink

4) Club Kid

5) La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)

6) A Long Winter

7) Fjord

8) Minotaur

9) Everest: The Other Side

10) Tender Loving Care

11) Gentle Monster

12) Wild Horse Nine

13) Fatherland

14) Rose

15) The Man I Love

16) My Undesirable Friends Part II

17) Rehearsal for a Revolution

18) The Unknown

19) Bucking Fastard

20) Tenzing

21) Alpha Gang

22) The Idiots

23) The Liberation

24) Making Marie Antoinette

25) One More Time

Other possibilities: 

 

Ancient History

The Basics of Philosophy

Burgundy

Diamond

Primetime

Sense and Sensibility

The Story of Documentary Film

Yellow Letters

And here's your update with just two weeks left to The SHOW:

1) Elsinore

2) The Debut

3) Ink

4) Club Kid

5) Bucking Fastard

6) Wild Horse Nine

7) Fatherland

8) La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)

9) A Long Winter

10) The Alpha Gang

11) Fjord

12) Minotaur

13) Everest: The Other Side

14) Tender Loving Care

15) Gentle Monster

16) Rose

17) The Man I Love

18) My Undesirable Friends Part II

19) Rehearsal for a Revolution

20) The Unknown

21) Tenzing

22) The Idiots

23) The Liberation

24) Making Marie Antoinette

25) One More Time

Other possibilities: 

 

Ancient History

The Basics of Philosophy

Burgundy

Diamond

Primetime

The Story of Documentary Film

Yellow Letters

TALKING TRIBUTES

We're so close to TFF #53 so it seems like a good time to speculate about TFF Tributes.  The fest traditionally choses 3 individuals for this special honor each year.  That can and has varied from time to time but three is the most common.

Past tribute recipients that could possibly be in Telluride include:

Cate Blanchett

Danny Boyle

Kem Burns

Mark Cousins

Penelope Cruz

Catherine Denueve

Werner Herzog

Mike Leigh

Rooney Mara

Paul Schrader

The list of potential recipients this year is lengthy:

Jimmy Chin/Everest: The Other Side

Olivia Colman/Elsinore

Willem Dafoe/Tenzing

Jesse Eisenberg/The Debut

Paul Giamatti/The Debut

Andrew Haigh/A Long Winter

Sandra Huller/Fatherland and Rose

Vicky Kreips/The Idiot(s)

John Malkovich/Wild Horse Nine

Martin McDonagh/Wild Horse Nine

Julianne Moore /The Debut

Cristian Mungiu/Fjord

Gut Pearce/Ink

Renate Reinsve/Fjord

Sam Rockwell/Wild Horse Nine

Ira Sachs/The Man I Love

Andrew Scott/Elsinore

Lea Seydoux/The Unknown, Alpha Gang and Gentle Monster

Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi/Everest:The Other Side

Andrey Zvyagnistaev/Minotaur

And. of course, all of these could be wrong.

CLUB KID TRAILER AND POSTER REVEALED

Sitting this week at #4 on the list of MTFB's Bets is Club Kid.  The film was a sensation at Cannes in May and I'll try to catch it at TFF.  Here are a trailer (warning...language) and poster for the film:

From YouTube and A24:

And the new poster:

DIGGER TO BOW IN LONDON

For those that have been thinking that Alejandro Inarritu's Digger starring Tom Cruise might still be a viable choice as a "Sneak Preview" for Telluride despite repeated reports that the film was bypassing the fall film circuit...here's another blow to that hypothesis.  Warners announce Tuesday that the film will World Premiere in London as a Royal Film Performance.

The announcement is big on making sure everyone knows it's a World Premiere.

That feels pretty definitive to me.

Could it still "sneak" at Telluride?  Sure, it's possible but I'd put those chances right now at about 5%.

Here's the official announcement from Warner Bros.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260818741409/en/Warner-Bros.-Pictures-Legendary-Pictures-and-The-Film-and-TV-Charity-Announce-the-Royal-Film-Performance-of-DIGGER?utm_campaign=shareaholic&utm_medium=email_this&utm_source=email

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Two Million Times / Collating You Didn't Know You Needed / Looks and Re-looks / No No Narnia

TWO MILLION TIMES

MTFB blew past the two million view mark since the last post.  The average views per post now is 818.  That's a lot of reading...and writing.  Thanks for taking a look...2,000,000 times.

COLLATING YOU DIDN'T KNOW YOU NEEDED

So, I went through the various lists that I have used to try to get a bead on TFF #53 including "Too Early" Oscar predictions, Cannes Speculation and ultimate choices, and "Most Anticipated" lists from the beginning of the year to get a sense of where my mind has been over the first four months of 2026 concerning potential TFF #53 films and here's what I discovered...

James Gray's Paper Tiger leads my take from all the different lists...not by much, but it is the film I have mentioned the most.

The next group all are close to Paper Tiger.  Four films are grouped here: 

Hamagichi's All of a Sudden, Guadagnino's Artificial, Inarritu's Digger and Munigiu's Fjord. 

Weirdly, despite these four being the second most mentioned in my speculations I can't say any of them feel like a sure thing for TFF.  And, of course, Warner Brothers has stated that Digger won't be doing any festivals much like Inarritu's The Revenant back in 2015).

The next group includes:

Almodovar's Bitter Christmas, Joel Coen's Jack of Spades, Farhadi's Parallel Tales and Kore-eda's Sheep in the Box.

And like the previous group, they all feel possible and none of them feel certain.

The final group has six films:

Herzog's Bucking Fastard, Pawlikowski's Fatherland, Sorkin's The Social Reckoning, McDonagh's Wild Horse Nine, Kwedar's Saturn Return and Harari's The Unknown.

I actually feel pretty good about Herzog and Pawlikowski. The other films in this group seem borderline possible.

Among the 18 other films that have appeared somewhere in m musings over the last four months, the most likely TFF candidates would appear to be:

The Long Winter (Haigh)

Coward (Dhont)

The Basics of Philosophy (Schrader)

As we begin the month of May we'll be paying particular attention to critical responses and ultimately the awards presentations out of Cannes which kicks off on May 12th and concludes May 23rd. 

LOOKS AND RE-LOOKS

We have a clip from Oren Jacoby's This Is Not a Drill.  The documentary screened at TFF #52.  Here's the clip from YouTube and The Film Stage:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BQNqE6lUk7Q

Also, we have a teaser/trailer for Asghar Farhadi's Parallel Tales with subtitles.  Also from YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y3BV9KeJzGM

MTFB had it last week but didn't have a subtitled version.

NO NO NARNIA

I have been rather whimsically including an occasional mention that Greta Gerwig's Narnia; The Magician's Nephew might be a TFF #53 selection.  Admittedly, it seemed unlikely but entirely outside the realm of possibility given the frequent appearance of Ms. Gerwig and/or her partner, Noah Baumbach at TFF over the years.  Additionally, the fact that the it's from Netflix doesn't hurt in as far as a possible TFF play is concerned.

But all of that has been laid to rest as the film has been re-dates for a 2027 release.  The Hollywood Reporter, among many outlets reported this on Friday.  From THR:

"Gerwig’s adaptation of the sixth book in the C.S. Lewis fantasy series, The Magician’s Nephew...will now be getting a release on Feb. 12, 2027 and then will hit on Netflix April 2, 2027. Sneak previews of the film will begin on Feb. 10, 2027, only in Imax."

I guess it's still possible in a far-fetched scenario, that the film could still screen at Telluride, but with a release now coming nearly six months later...probably not.

Here's the link to the complete Hollywood Reporter article.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/netflix-narnia-movie-greta-gerwig-release-date-1236581880/

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Digger Not Digging??? / Parallel Tales Trailer

DIGGER NOT DIGGING???

Deadline reported last week that Alejandro G. Inarritu's hotly anticipated Digger starring Tom Cruise may not play any festival at all.  The context for this was the presentation for the film at Cinemacon last week. 

Of course, we know that Digger is not playing Cannes but with its announced Oct. 2nd release date many assumed (me included) that a Venice bow was in play followed (I would have thought) by a TFF #53 North American Premiere.  Warner Bros. seems to have poured cold water on the notion.  From Deadline:

"EXCLUSIVE: Warner Bros and Alejandro González Iñárritu’s Tom Cruise starrer Digger, which wowed at CinemaCon on Tuesday, is unlikely to debut at a fall festival, we can reveal.

The film’s October 2 release date has led to speculation, and anticipation, in many quarters that Venice or another fall festival would be in the cards. Six of Iñárritu’s seven films have premiered at either Cannes or Venice. However, according to multiple well-placed sources, that’s not the current plan. Of course, things can change, but at the moment, we hear that’s how the land lies.

Warner Bros and Legendary declined comment."

I suppose the "escape hatch" is the phrasing "that’s not the current plan. Of course, things can change,"  that leaves some wiggle room for something to change. 

Honestly, I think the film could still make an appearance at Telluride.  Inarritu has screened Babel, Biutiful, Birdman and Bardo at T-ride.  The history/connection there is deep.  In a normal year, Digger might have appeared at the top of my annual "Ten Bets" first take for Telluride in June.  That will change now...but...I may still include the film somewhere in that initial Top Ten Bets.

For hoots...here's the current teaser from Digger from Warner Bros. and YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=digger+teaser+official

Stay tuned.

PARALLEL TALES TRAILER

Prior to its screening at Cannes, a trailer for Asghar Farhadi's Parallel Tales ha s been released. The trailer is in French so those of you who can speak/translate...here you go.  For those of us who cannot...it's still an interesting glimpse at what the film will be.  Here it is from YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXuLiRIkVkw

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Cannes Extended / Digger Teaser / Peter Asher Trailer

CANNES EXTENDED

We know that Cannes has announced a good deal of their lineup and in MTFB's last post, we looked at a number of those films that have already been announced as possible players for TFF #53.  But there are some films still left to be unveiled for Cannes and that's what we're focusing on today.

Initially, James Gray's Paper Tiger and Werner Herzog's Bucking Fastard are both probably going to be added to the lineup.  Multiple sources have been reporting that over the weekend.  Both films would be possible candidates for Telluride and that's true regardless of whether they chosen for Cannes inclusion.

The best intell right now suggests that Paper Tiger would likely be added to the Palme d'Or competition slate and that Herzog's film may appear in the Cannes Premieres section.

Additionally, there is some reporting that a couple of TFF #53 film possibilities may be the Director's Fortnight portion of the fest.  I'm referring to Kantemir Balagov's Butterfly Jam and Hirokazu Kore-eda's Look Back.  Kore-eda is already set for the Palme competition lineup with Sheep in the Box.

Here are links to a number of sources regarding adding titles to Cannes:

Awards Watch's Erik Anderson.

World of Reel

World of Reel-Bucking Fastard

World of Reel-Director's Fortnight

DIGGER TEASER

Thanks to Alex Billington and First Showing, I was reminded that we have a teaser for Alejandro Inarritu's Digger from Warner Brothers.  Here that is from YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rd21PhsDHww

PETER ASHER TRAILER

And just out, a trailer for the Peter Asher documentary that played TFF #52.  Everywhere Man: The Life and times of Peter Asher is from directors Daniel Geller and Diana Goldfine.  It will be in theaters on June 19th.  Here's the trailer from YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nIpHwQ94WvY

Here's the poster also:

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Another Look at Early Oscar Possibles and TFF/ Cannes Speculation from Deadline

ANOTHER LOOK AT OSCAR POSSIBLES AND TFF

As we march closer to the official announcement of films playing the Cannes Film Fest (see below), MTFB continues looking at really early Oscar predictions from a number Oscarologists to they to at least begin creating a list of possibilities for TFF #53.  Today we focus on Joey Magidson's Awards Radar.  Magidson posted his list of 25 possible Best Picture nominees. From that list I culled the following as possible Telluride (*** indicates the director has had a previous TFF entry):

All of a Sudden/Hamaguchi/NEON

Artificial/Guadagnino***/Amazon-MGM

Behemoth!/T. Gilroy/Searchlight

Being Heumann/Heder/Apple TV

Clarissa/Erisi/NEON

Digger/Inarritu***/Oct. 2nd/Warner Brothers

Fjord/Mungiu***/NEON

I Play Rocky/P. Farrelly/Nov. 20th/Amazon-MGM

Jack of Spades/J. Coen***

Narnia: The Magician's Nephew/Gerwig***/Nov. 26th/Netflix

Paper Tiger/Gray***

A Place in Hell/Dumont/NEON

Saturn Return/Kwedar/Netflix

The Social Reckoning/Sorkin/Oct. 9th/Sony Pictures

Tony/M. Johnson/A24

The Uprising/Greengrass/Focus Features

Wild Horse Nine/McDonagh/Nov. 6th/Searchlight

The complete list of 25 films from awards Radar is here.

https://awardsradar.com/best-picture/

CANNES SPECULATION FROM DEADLINE

A couple of weeks back Deadline.com posted a large piece about possible Cannes films.  MTFB continues to watch those lists for clues to films that could do the Cannes/Telluride Two-Step.  From that Deadline piece, here are some films that could play both places:

1949/Pawlikowski

All of a Sudden/Hamaguchi/NEON

Bitter Christmas/Almodovar***/Sony Pictures Classics

Bucking Fastard/Herzog***

Fjord/Mungiu***/NEON

Gentle Monster/Kreutzer

Hombre al Agua/Bernal***

A Long Winter/Haigh

Minotaur/Zvyagintsev***

Parallel Tales/Farhadi***

Sheep in the Box/Kore-eda***/NEON

The Unknown/Harari/NEON

The full list from Deadline is linked here.
https://deadline.com/2026/03/cannes-2026-predictions-whats-international-mix-1236751075/

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Variety's Early Oscar Picture / News from Cannes / Insight for Bucking Fastard

 VARIETY'S EARLY OSCAR PICTURE

MTFB continues to take a peek at early Best Picture Oscar prognostications for TFF #53 clues.  Today it's Clayton Davis from Variety.  From his March 19th article, here are my best guesses for what among them might make it to southwest Colorado  (with director, release date and distributor, if known.  *** indicates the director has had a previous TFF entry):

All of a Sudden/Hamaguchi/NEON

Artificial/Guadagnino***/Amazon-MGM

Being Heumann/Heder/Apple TV

Bucking Fastard/Herzog***

Clarissa/Erisi/NEON

Digger/Inarritu***/Oct. 2nd/Warner Brothers

Here Comes the Flood/Meirelles***/Netflix

A Long Winter/Haigh***/MUBI

Musk/Gibney/Bleeker Street

Narnia: The Magician's Nephew/Gerwig***/Nov. 26th/Netflix

Paper Tiger/Gray***

Primetime/Oppenheim/A24

Saturn Return/Kwedar/Netflix

Untitled Jesse Eisenberg Project/Eisenberg***/Dec. 3rd/A24

Wild Horse Nine/McDonagh/Nov. 6th/Searchlight

Check out the entire Variety set of predictions here,

https://variety.com/lists/2027-oscars-predictions/documentary-feature-9/

NEWS FROM CANNES

We're keeping close tabs on what's what regarding possible films at Cannes that may then proceed across the Atlantic to T-ride.  Jordan Ruimy updated some of his speculation on Tuesday.

First a re-cap of what we've passed on here at MTFB:

Our last list from World of Reel based on Ruimy's earlier post re: Cannes:

Predicted Cannes Competition titles that might play TFF #53:

Bitter Christmas/Almodovar

Fjord/Mungiu

Jack of Spades/Coen

Minotaur/Zvyaginstev

All of a Sudden/Hamaguchi

Parallel Tales/Farhadi

Coward/Dhont

1949/Pawlikowski

Sheep in the Box/Kore-eda

Butterfly Jam/Bagalov

"Possibilities"

The Long Winter/Haigh

Let Love In/Van Groeningen

Bucking Fastard/Herzog

"French Contenders"

Moulin/Nemes

Among titles that Ruimy says are now "unlikely: for Cannes but that could still make a Telluride play:

Paper Tiger/Gray

The Way of the Wind/Malick

Untitled Mike Leigh Film

Digger/Inarritu

And the Screen Daily list we put up here on Monday:

Parallel Tales/Farhadi***

Minotaur/Zvyagintsev***

The Unknown/Harari/NEON

Paper Tiger/Gray***

All of a Sudden/Hamaguchi/NEON

Sheep in the Box/Kore-eda***/NEON

1949 (Fatherland?)/Pawlikowski***/MUBI

Bitter Christmas/Almodovar***/Sony Pictures Classics

Coward/Dhont***

Fjord/Mungiu***/NEON

And here's what Ruimy is saying as of Tuesday's post:

Pawlikowski's 1949 was OUT but now may be back IN...it's about whether post-production can be finished.  Ruimy's tone makes me think it's likely IN.

OUT: Coward and The Way of the Wind.

Probably IN: All of a Sudden and Minotaur.  Bitter Christmas looks likely too.

James Gray's Paper Tiger which was a possible no-show now seems to be a "Maybe":

Here's the latest from World of Reel.

https://www.worldofreel.com/blog/2026/3/18/cannes

INSIGHT FOR BUCKING FASTARD

Kate Mara made an appearance on Late Nigh with Seth Meyers last week and the program posted part of that conversation on their X account focused on the upcoming Bucking Fastard directed by Werner Herzog.  The clip is kind of entertaining.  The discussion begins at the 5:41 mark:

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Looking at "Too Early" Oscar Predictions for Clues / And What About Cannes?...Screen Daily

 LOOKING AT "TOO EARLY" OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR CLUES

As I have mentioned...it's time to turn our attention more fully to TFF #53.  One way to sort of begin to make a list is to look at what the Oscarologists think might be films in play for Oscar #99.  To that end, I'm looking at the first picks from Matt Neglia and Next Best Picture.  They posted on March 18th.  From their list, here are what I feel like the most likely contenders are for Telluride (with director, release date and distributor, if known.  (*** indicates the director has had a previous TFF entry):

1949 (Fatherland?)/Pawlikowski***/MUBI

All of a Sudden/Hamaguchi/NEON

Artificial/Guadagnino***/Amazon-MGM

At the Sea/Mundruczo (played Berlin)

Being Heumann/Heder/Apple TV

Bitter Christmas/Almodovar***/Sony Pictures Classics

Bucking Fastard/Herzog***

Digger/Inarritu***/Oct. 2nd/Warner Brothers

Fjord/Mungiu***/NEON

Here Comes the Flood/Meirelles***/Netflix

Jack of Spades/J. Coen***

Look Back/Kore-eda***

Narnia: The Magician's Nephew/Gerwig***/Nov. 26th/Netflix

Paper Tiger/Gray***

Parallel Tales/Farhadi***

Saturn Return/Kwedar/Netflix

Sheep in the Box/Kore-eda***/NEON

Untitled Jesse Eisenberg Project/Eisenberg***/Dec. 3rd/A24

Wild Horse Nine/McDonagh/Nov. 6th/Searchlight

Next Best Picture's complete list is here.

AND WHAT ABOUT CANNES?...SCREEN DAILY

I'm also continuing speculation about what might be announced for Cannes on April 9th and looking for signs of films that might complete the Cannes to Telluride double play.  From Screen Daily on March 13th.  The titles in the article are generally listed geographically. Films are listed with director, release date and distributor, if known.  *** indicates the director has had a previous TFF entry:

Parallel Tales/Farhadi***

Minotaur/Zvyagintsev***

The Unknown/Harari/NEON

Paper Tiger/Gray***

All of a Sudden/Hamaguchi/NEON

Sheep in the Box/Kore-eda***/NEON

1949 (Fatherland?)/Pawlikowski***/MUBI

Bitter Christmas/Almodovar***/Sony Pictures Classics

Coward/Dhont***

Fjord/Mungiu***/NEON

Screen Daily's complete post is linked here.

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