Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
It's Thursday so time to update MTFB's Teb bets for TFF #52.
Here's a review of last week's Ten Bets.
1) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
2) Blue Moon/Linklater
3) Bugonia/Lanthimos
4) The Love That Remains/Palmason
5) Sentimental Value/Trier
6) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardennes
7) The Secret Agent/Filho
8) Hamnet/Zhao
9) Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper
10) The Ballad of a Small Player/Berger
And here's the updated Bets for this week:
1) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
2) Blue Moon/Linklater
3) Bugonia/Lanthimos
4) Sentimental Value/Trier
5) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardennes
6) Hamnet/Zhao
7) Sirat/Oliver Laxe
8) Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper
9) The Ballad of a Small Player/Berger
10) The Love That Remains/Palmason
A little movement here and there from where things were last week. For the moment The Secret Agent has dropped off the Ten Best...but it could return. The Love That Remains drops down but stays on the list. Sirat enters the list at #7. The top three remain the same with other titles like Sentimental Value and Deliver Me from Nowhere moving up a spot.
Other possibilities: Jay Kelly, Left-Handed Girl, Frankenstein, Eleanor the Great, After the Hunt, Family Rental, Pressure, Marty Supreme, Die My Love, The Mastermind.
VARIETY'S TAKE ON VENICE
We're likely about four weeks away from the announcement of the Venice lineup and then another couple of weeks past that before we find out when the films selected will be scheduled. Those two chunks of information can help illuminate the possible TFF lineup.
I've passed along a couple of sites that have speculated about potential Venice titles and today I add a piece from Variety with their take on what could play there. I've scoured the article for possible TFF titles and here's what I came up with:
The Smashing Machine/B. Safdie
After the Hunt/Guadagnino
Bugonia/Lanthimos
Couture/Winocour
Jay Kelly/Baumbach
Frankenstein/Del Toro
A House of Dynamite/Bigelow
Father, Mother, Sister, Brother/Jarmusch
La Grazia/Sorrentino
Click on the link above for the full article.
ROOFMAN HAS A TRAILER
Derek Cianfrance's next film has a trailer and World of Reel suggests that it will have a presence on the fall film fest circuit including a possible play at Telluride.
WOR head honcho, Jordan Ruimy writes that:
"It’s been a long time coming, but Derek Cianfrance is finally back. His latest feature, “Roofman,” is already being positioned for a major festival run in fall 2025."
And further along in the post from yesterday:
"As for where “Roofman” will land on the festival circuit, maybe Telluride? Definitely TIFF. Venice is an outside shot as Cianfrance has been on the Lido before, but isn’t a regular. It’ll all depend on the quality of the film."
The film stars Channing Tatum who was in Telluride in 2014 with Foxcatcher, Kirsten Dunst who was in T-ride in 2021 with The Power of the Dog and Peter Dinklage who was a TFF tribute recipient with Cyrano also in 2021. Ben Mendelsohn, Juno Temple, Uzo Aduba and LaKeith Stanfield also star. The IMDb description:
The story of the rooftop robber, Jeffrey Manchester, and his time on the lam evading capture.
And here's the trailer via YouTube:
Roofman is dated for release on Oct. 3rd.
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Neon has come on strong over the last decade as a Telluride staple. Their first appearance at TFF came in 2016 as the distributor of Errol Morris's The B-Side. In the years since then Neon has placed 18 other films at TFF for an impressive average of 2.4 films per year. In that time some other notable titles under the Neon banner that have appeared at TFF include: Last year's Best Picture winner Anora, 2020 Oscar Best Picture winner Parasite, Anatomy of a Fall and Flee.
This year, Neon made the biggest splash at Cannes acquiring a bunch of properties. Consequently they have a deep roster of films that could play at TFF. I have at least six films (all of which were Cannes selections in various categories) that could come from Neon to Telluride. Here's what we know about each of them. They're arranged from what I feel is most likely to least likely. Films that are on my most recent "Ten Bets" list are indicated with +. Individuals that have been past attendees of TFF are indicated with *.
It Was Just an Accident+. Director Jafar Panahi* (strictly speaking Panahi didn't attend with his film Taxi). Stars: Vahid Mobasseri, Mariam Afshari. Won this year's Palme d'Or at Cannes. Release date: TBD. IMDb description:
A small mishap triggers a chain reaction of ever-growing problems.
I believe that should It Was Just a Simple Accident play Telluride it would be the first time in the festival's history to program the Palme d'Or winner for three years running.
Sentimental Value+. Director: Joachim Trier. Stars: Renate Reinsve, Stellan Skarsgard*, Elle Fanning. Won this year's Grand Prize at Cannes. Release date: Nov. 7th. IMDb description:
An intimate exploration of family, memories, and the reconciliatory power of art.
Sentimental Value finished Cannes with the second best critical rating of any film playing that fest with an 8.04 cumulative rating (out of 10) from Cannes-Ratings.org. In contrast Plame d'Or winner It Was Just a Simple Accident was 7th best with a cumulative of 7.76.
The Secret Agent+. Director: Kleber Mendonça Filho. Stars: Wagner Moura (won Best Actor at Cannes), Maria Fernanda Cândido. The film won the FIPRESCI Prize at Cannes. Release date: TBD. IMDb description:
In 1977, a technology expert flees from a mysterious past and returns to his hometown of Recife in search of peace. He soon realizes that the city is far from being the refuge he seeks.
The Secret Agent was also well regarded critically at Cannes with a cumulative rating of 7.00 which was the 30th best among all films that played at that Fest.
Sirat. Director: Oliver Laxe. Stars: Sergi López, Bruno Núñez Arjona. The film won the Jury Prize at Cannes. Release date: TBD. IMDb description:
A father, accompanied by his son, goes looking for his missing daughter in North Africa.
This is another film with a great critical reception at Cannes. It had a 7.87 cumulative rating which was the 5th best of the entire fest. It could well move onto next Thursday's second iteration of MTFB's Ten Bets for TFF #52.
The ultimate and comprehensive documentary film about the exceptional writer George Orwell.
Orwell: 2+2=5 had the 22nd best critical rating from Cannes ratings.org at 7.13.
Alpha. Director: Julia Ducournau. Stars: Tahar Rahim*, Emma Mackey. The film played in Palme d'Or competition at Cannes. Release date: Sometime in October. IMDb description:
Alpha, 13, is a troubled teenager who lives alone with her mother. Their world comes crashing down the day she comes home from school with a tattoo on her arm.
Alpha's critical reception at Cannes was tough. A 47 on Metacritic and a 50 on Rotten Tomatoes.
The assessment of chances for TFF #52:
It Was Just an Accident 70%
Sentimental Value 60%
The Secret Agent 50%
Sirat 50%
Orwell 2+2=5 45%
Alpha 20%
SPC AND NUREMBURG
Sony Pictures Classics might not be done for TFF #52 yet. SPC announced on Wednesday last week that they had acquired the James Vanderbilt's Nuremburg and plan to release the film on Nov. 7th. The film stars Russell Crowe as Herman Goring and Rami Malek as the U.S. psychiatrist charged with determining if the Nazi's are mentally competent to stand trial. Michael Shannon also stars. In addition to directing Vanderbilt also adapted the screenplay from the book The Nazi and the Psychiatrist.
.m not sold on that
According to the SPC press release the timing of the release coincides with 80th anniversary of the post-war trials held in Nuremburg, Germany, It also just happens to be in the Awards season sweet spot.
So, retrofit the SPC speculation from last week and add Nuremburg to the list of TFF possibilities. I'm not sold on the notion that it does play Telluride but I also don't think it's impossible. Mark at at a current 35% chance to make the TFF cut.
Jordan Ruimy has updated his Venice speculation list as of last Thursday. Of note is his addition of Guillermo Del Toro's Frankenstein and Agnieszka Holland's Franz to the list. Both could also be potentials for T-ride although Ruimy also writes that:
"I’m also hearing that Guillermo del Toro’s long-awaited “Frankenstein” has locked its TIFF premiere..."
Notice that Ruimy doesn't mention what that premiere status is for Toronto but...
Here's Jordan's updated list with what I think has Telluride potential indicated with ***.
BTW...add Kathryn Bigelow's A House of Dynamite to the Netflix list from a couple of weeks back. I'm putting its TFF chances at 30%.
SPRINGSTEEN ON WHITE...OH, AND THE TRAILER AGAIN
I have high hopes that Searchlight brings the Bruce Springsteen biopic Deliver Me from Nowhere to TFF #52. Right now it and Del Toro's Frankenstein are my two big "hope fors".
That said, we know director Scott Cooper has been at Telluride a number of times both with and without projects. We know that the film is being distributed by frequent TFF player Searchlight and we know that the film has a fest friendly release date of Oct. 24th. So, I got that going for me.
This Past week Springsteen talked to The Hollywood Reporter about the film and the actor Jeremy Allen White who plays The Boss in the film. Here's that interview.
And, by the by, we had lots of trouble with linking to the trailer for Deliver Me from Nowhere last week...so here we go again:
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Welp...here it is. 2025's first "Ten Bets" attempt to suss out films that might make the TFF #52 lineup. I do a good deal of research and study to come up with these lists and even then...this first one usually does well to have six titles on it that actually make it to Telluride.
This was my first Ten Bets for last year (with the films that actually made it to TFF #51 in Bold):
1) Anora/Sean Baker
2) The Seed of the Scared Fig/Mohammad Rasoulof
3) Emilia Perez/Jacques Audiard
4) The Room Next Door/Pedro Almodovar
5) Bird/Andrea Arnold
6) Maria/Pablo Larrain
7) Oh, Canada/Paul Schrader
8) The End/Joshua Oppenheimer
9) Queer/Luca Guadagnino
10) Conclave/Edward Berger
So seven out of the Ten...a better than average year.
Here's the track record for the first Ten Bets for the last
The puts the average at 5.8 correct guesses per year.
So, with that caveat, here is your first Ten Bets for TFF #52:
1) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
2) Blue Moon/Linklater
3) Bugonia/Lanthimos
4) The Love That Remains/Palmason
5) Sentimental Value/Trier
6) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardennes
7) The Secret Agent/Filho
8) Hamnet/Zhao
9) Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper
10) The Ballad of a Small Player/Berger
Let's see what happens.
DELIVER ME FROM NOWHERE HAS A TRAILER AND POSTER
Here's the poster:
Scott Cooper's Bruce Springsteen biopic, Deliver Me from Nowhere, dropped a trailer for the film. Jeremy Allen White plays "The Boss" with Jeremy Strong as Springsteen's manager Jon Landau. The film reportedly focuses on the period in Springsteen's life when he was working on his Nebraska album.
I have high hopes for the film and also hopes for it to be in Telluride Labor Day. I hope its appearance at #9 on the first Ten Bets list doesn't jinx its chances.
Here's the trailer from YouTube:
DIE MY LOVE HAS A DATE
Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel reports that Lynne Ramsay's Die, My Love will have a wide release on Nov. 7th. That date puts it in place for possible screenings at Telluride, Toronto, Venice, New York and/or London. Ruimy suggests Toronto is a real possibility.
Ramsay was at Telluride in 2011 with We Need to Talk about Kevin. Prior to that she screened Morvern Callar at T-ride in 2002. So, chances aren't impossible for a Telluride run.
The film screened at Cannes back in May to mixed reviews but generally universal praise for Jennifer Lawrence's performance. The Nov. 7th date sets up a reasonable time frame for an awards push for her specifically.
We are proud to unveil our 2025 Festival poster, created by celebrated cartoonist and graphic novelist Daniel Clowes.
Daniel Clowes is one of the most influential and acclaimed figures in contemporary graphic storytelling. Best known for his seminal comic-book series Eightball and the cult classic graphic novel Ghost World, Clowes has defined the landscape of alternative comics for over three decades. His body of work includes Like a Velvet Glove Cast in Iron, David Boring, Ice Haven, The Death-Ray, Wilson, and Patience. His most recent book, Monica, was named by Kirkus Reviews as one of the 100 greatest works of fiction of the 21st century.
Clowes received an Academy Award nomination (with Terry Zwigoff) for the screenplay adaptation of Ghost World and has been recognized with a PEN America Literary Award, as well as numerous Eisner and Harvey Awards. His work has been exhibited in a solo retrospective, Modern Cartoonist, at The Museum of Contemporary Art in Chicago and other venues. His illustrations have appeared on movie posters, album covers, multiple covers of The New Yorker, and even a Hermès scarf. He lives in Oakland, California with his wife Erika.
Clowes shared, “I’m thankful to the Telluride Film Festival for giving me the opportunity to focus my energy on something unassailably positive and noble in these dystopic times.”
Festival director Julie Huntsinger adds, “We’ve long admired Dan’s unparalleled ability to tell emotional, layered stories through both image and language. His poster for this year’s festival is a rich and brilliant capsule of that – a perfect reflection of his depth and wit through the lens of cinema and all that it can offer.”
50 FALL FILM POSSIBILITIES
Ezra Cubero writing for Silver Screen Express has posted his annual set of speculation about which films might go where as regards Telluride, Venice, Toronto and New York. It's an interesting take with some surprise.
I culled the post and began by creating a list of the films that Cubero thinks have some shot at the TFF #52 lineup. It's a lengthy list which follows below (with director listed to the right).
After the Hunt/Guadagnino
Anemone/Day-Lewis
At the Sea/Mundruczo
Blue Moon/Linklater*
Bugonia/Lanthimos
Christy Martin Biopic/Michod
Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper
Eleanor the Great/Johansson
Hamnet/Zhao
Hedda/DaCosta
The History of Sound/Hermanus
It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
Jay Kelly/Baumbach
Kiss of the Spiderwoman/Condon*
Late Fame/Jones
A Magnificent Life/Chomet
Marty Supreme/J. Safdie
The Mastermind/Reichardt
Nouvelle Vague/Linklater
Rental Family/Hikari
The Rivals of Amziah King/Patterson**
Roofman/Cianfrance
The Secret Agent/Filho
Sentimental Value/Trier
Sirat/Laxe
The Smashing Machine/B. Safdie
Sound of Falling/Schiliniski
* indicates a premiere at Sundance
** indictaes a premiere at South by Southwest
Notable films that Cubero does not mention as a Telluride possibility at all:
Alpha/Ducournau
The Ballad of a Small Player/Berger
Die My Love/Ramsay
Father Mother Sister Brother/Jarmusch
Frankenstein/Del Toro
One Battle After Another/PT Anderson
And one last note. Cubero doesn't pick Bradley Cooper's Is This Thing On for Telluride but does write about it saying: "Telluride might not happen." Which isn't a total rejection of its chances.
Cubero was pretty solid on this last year hitting 13 films he listed as "Yes" or "Maybe" for Telluride that actually made the lineup. His post last year went up on June 24th.
Indiewire has kept track of sales during and after the 78th Cannes Film Fest and I have taken a look at buyers/titles that do not have an announced release date or do have a release date post-Telluride. I also focused on distributors that have had a fairly serious presence at TFF over the past few years.
Here's the rundown beginning with Neon, which went on a buying spree.
Neon (7): It Was Just an Accident, Sirat, The Secret Agent, Alpha, Orwell 2+2=5, Sentimental Value, Splitsville.
Mubi (5): Sound of Falling, Die My Love, The History of Sound, The Mastermind, My Father's Shadow.
Sony Pictures Classics (3): The President's Cake, Eleanor the Great, A Magnificent Life.
Janus Films (3): Magellan, The Love That Remains, Resurrection.
Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel posted a list of "20 hot festival titles this fall" on Saturday. The context for the list of films is within Ruimy's discussion of the Venice festival and the number of possible American films that could make that lineup. Many of them are on my TFF #52 "watch list".
Here's Ruimy's list with what I think are the most serious Telluride possibilities indicated with ***.
Matt Neglia, who heads up Next Best Picture, published via "X" on Friday a list of Cannes films that he thinks could also play Telluride. It looks like this:
The Chronology Of Water
Die My Love
It Was Just An Accident
Left Handed Girl
The Love That Remains
The Mastermind
My Father’s Shadow
Nouvelle Vague
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Urchin
Young Mothers
I have frequently mentioned Chronology of Water, Die My Love, It Was Just an Accident (or A Simple Accident), The Love That Remains, The Mastermind, and Young Mothers.
Post Cannes I have warmed to the notion of Sentimental Value and The Secret Agent for T-ride.
I'm back and forth on Nouvelle Vague. Linklater has, to the best of my knowledge, never been to The SHOW but with both Nouvelle Vague and Blue Moon...I could see a Linklater double bill and a possible tribute.
Other films that Matt names, Left Handed Girl, The Father's Shadow and Urchin...we'll see.
I think there could be other Cannes players that make the trip. Sirat and Eleanor the Great come to mind. Remember, though, Matt was on the ground in France and probably has a better sense of what's going on as a result.
A LOOK AT DEL TORO'S FRANKENSTEIN
Netflix had what they call TUDUM. It's their annual sort CinemaCon thing. Anyway, as a part of that there was a presentation for Guillermo Del Toro's upcoming imagining of Frankenstein. The film stars Oscar Isaac (as Victor Frankenstein) who was at the TUDUM presentation, as well as Christoph Waltz and Jacob Elordi and Mia Goth. Netflix dropped a trailer for the film as a part of the event and then very quickly put it up online. Here it is from YouTube:
I'm thinking Frankenstein could make a visit to TFF owing to Del Toro's success there in 2017 with The Shape of Water and Netflix's usually robust presence at The SHOW. Del Toro presented The Devil's Backbone at Telluride in 2001.
INTERESTING COMMENT TO THE BLOG
Over the weekend some anonymous person posted a comment to last Thursday's MTFB. It really caught my attention because it's a poem about me and the blog. And whoever this is knows their stuff. I approved the comment and you can find it on the 5/29/25 post. I've also re-posted it here:
"In Oklahoma classrooms he was once all the rage, A master of drama, debate and stage. Now each Labor Day he ascends to the peak, Where cinephiles gather and the big stars all sneak. With a blog as his weapon, a hunch as his guide, He guesses the films they try hard to hide. Reads gossip like scripture, decodes all the lines.
The SHOW bosses in Berkeley grit teeth in dismay, As his summer "BEST BETS" always steal the day. But Michael just shrugs, lets critics all chatter-- To him it's just the puzzle that truly must matter. So let's raise a toast, with blog posts in hand, To the Teacher who does what few understand."
Thanks to the unknown author.
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We're not quite a week into Cannes but we do have some critical responses to take a gander at. Initially, here is a look from Cannes-ratings.org regarding 13 films at Cannes that I have my eye on regarding a possible play at Telluride:
From the Palme Competition category (on a 10 point scale):
The Mastermind: 6.65
Die, My Love: 6.59
Young Mothers: 5.73
The History of Sound: 5.41
A Simple Accident: 6.12
From Un Certain Regard:
Eleanor the Great: 8.83
The Chronology of Water: 6.19
Out of Competition:
Splitsville: 8.67
Orwell: 2+2=5: 7.12
The Disappearance of Joseph Mengele: 6.11
The Wave: 5.88
The Love That Remains (Palmason) 7.79
The Magnificent Life of Marcel Pagnol 6.16
Looking at the Palme competitors, the top five currently are:
1) Sentimental Value (Trier) 9.00
2) Sirat (Laxe) 7.95
3) Nouvelle Vague (Linklater) 7.27
4) Romeria (Simon) 7.20
5) Fuori (Martone (7.00) and Resurrection (Gan) 7.00 (tie)
In conjunction with its screening in Palme competition at Cannes, we saw the release of a clip from Lynne Ramsay's Die, My Love. Here that is via YouTube and The Upcoming:
DELIVER ME FROM NOWHERE HAS A DATE
Jeremy Allen White as Bruce Springsteen in Deliver Me from Nowhere (via IMDb)
20th Century Studios announced this past week that Scott Cooper's Bruce Springsteen biopic, Deliver Me from Nowhere, has been dated for an Oct. 24th release. The date is very fall fest friendly leaving the door open for the film to screen at TFF #52 as well as Venice, Toronto and/or New York. As I have mentioned here, Cooper has had a good relationship with Telluride over the years with Black Mass appearing at T-ride in 2015 and Hostiles in 2017. It also doesn't hurt that Searchlight is involved in the film's distribution.
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Noah Baumbach's latest film, Jay Kelly, has been dated for theatrical release by Netflix. The film will be released into theaters on Nov. 14th. Netflex will start streaming it on Dec. 5th. The film stars George Clooney and Adam Sandler.
Several outlets reported on the announcement earlier this week with a couple making some noise about a possible play at Telluride. Gregory Ellwood writing for The Playlist commented in his story that:
"It’s possible Netflix could hold “Kelly” to the New York Film Festival, but Clooney’s participation makes a Venice Film Festival bow much more likely. In theory, that means Telluride and TIFF screenings are up for discussion. Whatever the case, the streamer’s release strategy makes it clear they believe it’s a prime awards season contender."
Additionally, Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel echoed the Telluride possibility writing:
“Jay Kelly” could very well have its world premiere at the Venice Film Festival in September. It will certainly be hitting the fall fests, and that could include Toronto, Telluride and New York."
The Telluride pedigree is impressive. Baumbach has had a presence at Telluride having screened Margot at the Wedding (2007), Frances Ha (2012) and Marriage Story (2019) at TFF.
Clooney was in town in 2011 with Alexander Payne's The Descendants. Sandler was in T-ride in 2019 with the Safdie Brothers' Uncut Gems. And a couple of members of the supporting cast have had a presence at TFF including Laura Dern (Marriage Story, Trial by Fire and Wild) and Greta Gerwig (Frances Ha and Lady Bird).
Finally, it's Netflix project and they have been well represented at the fest since 2015.
AWARDS WATCH'S FIRST OSCAR PICKS
Erik Anderson who runs Awards Watch has had his first set of predictions for 2025 going up this week. He's got four categories up so far: Picture, Direction, Actress and Actor. There are a couple of reasons to look at what Erik has to say. First, as with other early Oscar picks highlighted here on the blog, I'll run through his picks and post a list below of possible TFF #52 titles. Secondly, Erik makes a couple of interesting observations about Telluride in his Best actress/Actor predictions.
First, possible TFF #52 films from Erik's Best Picture predictions (in his order of mention):
Meanwhile in his piece on Best Actress/Actor predictions he makes a couple of interesting statements. The first relates to Rental Family and Is This Thing On? From the post:
"I’m also keeping an eye on two Searchlight Pictures men, recent winner Brendan Fraser in Rental Family and Will Arnett in Is This Thing On?, the latter of which just recently wrapped production under Bradley Cooper’s direction. A Telluride or Toronto debut feels likely for one or both, if they’re ready for this year."
Later in the same piece, he writes this concerning Hamnet:
"The Focus Features adaptation of the Maggie O’Farrell fictional story of Agnes, the wife of William Shakespeare, as she struggles to come to terms with the loss of her only son, the titular Hamnet, will likely find its debut at Venice or Telluride (possibly screening at both) and setting the stage for her."
LATE LOOK AT EARLY OSCAR PREDICTIONS AND TFF POSSIBILITIES
Joey Magidson who runs Awards Radar has posted his early Oscar predictions at his site. I thought we'd mine the 25 titles he has listed as possible Best Picture nominees for guesses about TFF #52.
These are in the order that Magidson has them listed by likelihood of being nominated:
Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions/LD Entertainment have announced and October 10th, 2025 release date for Bill Condon's Kiss of the Spider Woman. This rendition is based on the Broadway musical adaptation. The Oct. 10th date signals the intent that the distributors are serious about making a play for Awards season.
That intention makes you think that they will be aiming for some fall fest love such as TIFF and New York. But maybe also Telluride. Normally, its screening at Sundance in January would write it off as a TFF #52 selection, however, Telluride has made exceptions in recent years: The Outrun, Living andThe Report come to mind.
So perhaps I won't immediately reject the notion.
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I get all entangled in the speculation about the Cannes Film Festival and its lineup every year at this time because historically there has been a steady cache of films that do Cannes in May and then North American Premiere at Telluride over Labor ay weekend.
Over the last ten years (leaving out the Covid year of 2020) the fests share 7-8 titles per year. Last year, as near as I can discern, Telluride screened eight films that had premiered at Cannes, right on the average. They were:
All We Imagine as Light
The Apprentice
Bird
Emilia Perez
Misericordia
Santosh
The Seed of the Sacred Fig
And Palme d'Or winner Anora.
Of these eight, I had five pretty consistently in my posts about Cannes from last year. Not on my radar: All We Imagine as Light, Misericordia and Santosh.
Though TFF has screened the last two Palme d'Or winners, the Golden Palme is no guarantee that a film will be featured at Telluride. As a matter of fact, it's often less likely that a Palme winner makes the Telluride lineup.
Here are the years when TFF programmed the Palme winner:
1974: The Conversation
1984: Paris, Texas
1993: Farwell My Concubine and The Piano (tie and both played TFF)
1996: Secrets and Lies
1997: Taste of Cherry
2003: Elephant
2005: L'Enfant
2007: 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days
2009: The White Ribbon
2012: Amour
2013: Blue Is the Warmest Color
2018: Shoplifters
2019: Parasite
2023: Anatomy of a Fall
2024: Anora
That's just 16 Palme winners at TFF over the 52 fests.
A final note on the probability that this year's Palme winner makes it to TFF #52...Telluride has never scheduled the Palme winner three years in a row.
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I decided to switch things up a bit and go back to early Oscar predictions as a way to mine for possible TFF #52 films. I'll use that metric again on Thursday and then return to Cannes speculation next week.
Today we take a look at the 2026 Oscar predictions from Mark Johnson, The Awards Alchemist, housed at Awards Watch. These are the films Mark has in the mix for Oscar that I feel are possible choices for Telluride:
After the Hunt/Amazon-MGM/Luca Guadagnino
Anemone/Focus/Ronan Day-Lewis
The Ballad of a Small Player/Netflix/Edward Berger
Bugonia/Focus/Yorgos Lanthimos
Deliver Me from Nowhere/Searchlight/Scott Cooper
Die My Love/No Distribution/Lynne Ramsay
Eleanor the Great/Sony Pictures Classics/Scarlett Johansson
We got a brief glimpse of Paul Thomas Anderson's One Battle After Another with a teaser that dropped last Thursday. I got interested in the new PTA film after its release date was moved to September 26th which means that it could play Telluride (or Venice or Toronto or all of them or none of them). The teaser was released as a morsel to chew on prior to the release of what is expected to be a full trailer sometime this week. I'll be eagerly anticipating that and hope to have it here in my next post.
Here's the teaser from YouTube:
More on Thursday...
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In today's post I continue to take a look at early Oscar predictions as a way of searching for possible TFF titles for this year. Today we're looking at Daniel Howat's take from Next Best Picture. From the ten films NBP has as predicted as Best Picture nominees, these might be the ones with the most Telluride potential:
After the Hunt/Amazon-MGM/Luca Guadagnino
Bugonia/Focus/Yorgos Lanthimos
The Ballad of a Small Player/Edward Berger
Deliver Me from Nowhere/Scott Cooper
Die, My Love/No Distributor/Lynne Ramsay
Marty Supreme/A24/Josh Safdie
And among the other films NBP assesses for Oscar potential:
From directors Kevin Macdonald and Sam Rice-Edwards here is the recently released trailer for TFF #51 documentary One to One: John & Yoko.
The IMBd description:
Set in 1972 New York, this documentary explores John and Yoko's world amid a turbulent era. Centered on the One to One charity concert for special needs children, it features unseen archives, home movies, and restored footage.
The film is set to open in the U.S. on April 18th.
SPINAL TAP???
Many readers know, I'm sure, that a sequel to the classic This Is Spinal Tap has been in the works for some time. Now word comes that the film has been picked by Bleecker Street for distribution and a release date has been set. Look for the film in theaters on Sept. 12th.
The combination of the distributor, which has had its share of films play over the years at T-ride, and the weekend date immediately following the close of TFF #52 allows for a possible TFF screening.
Do I have a lot of confidence in this possibility? Right now...No. But it's logistically possible and really an intriguing thought.
