MTFB OSCAR TAKE: WHERE WE'RE AT
I'm through the second wave of predictions for the 2026 Oscars and the eight " Above the Line" categories. I'll start expanding the predictions with Thursday's post to eventually include all 24 categories (up from 23 as The Academy has added Best Casting as a new Oscar category for this year).
But before I go into the expanded set of predictions, here's a reminder of where MTFB has nominees predicted currently. These predictions were posted between Nov. 3rd and Nov. 13th. TFF #52 films/performers are in Bold.
BEST PICTURE
1) One Battle After Another (1)
2) Hamnet (2)
3) Sinners (3)
4) Sentimental Value (4)
5) Marty Supreme (5)
6) Wicked: For Good (9)
7) It Was Just an Accident (8)
8) Jay Kelly (6)
9) Frankenstein (NR)
10) Bugonia (NR)
Others: Train Dreams, Avatar: Fire and Ice, The Secret Agent and A House of Dynamite.
Comment: Big moves up for Wicked: For Good, Frankenstein and Bugonia. Dropping for Jay Kelly and A House of Dynamite.
BEST DIRECTION
1) Paul Thomas Anderson/OBAA (1)
2) Chloe Zhao/Hamnet (2)
3) Ryan Coogler/Sinners (3)
4) Joachim Trier/Sentimental Value (4)
5) Jafar Panahi/It Was Just an Accident (5)
Others: Josh Safdie/Marty Supreme, Noah Baumbach/Jay Kelly and Guillermo del Toro/Frankenstein.
BEST ACTRESS
1) Jesse Buckley/Hamnet (1)
2) Rene Reinsve/Sentimental Value (2)
3) Cynthia Enviro/Wicked: For Good (3)
4) Emma Stone/Bugonia (4)
5) Amanda Seyfried/The Testament of Ann Lee (NR)
Others: Kate Hudson/Song Sung Blue, Sidney Sweeney/Christy and Rose Byrne/If I Had Legs I'd Kick You.
1) Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme (2)
2) Leonardo Di Caprio/OBAA (1)
3) Walter Moura/The Secret Agent (3)
4) Ethan Hawke (NR)
5) Michael B. Jordan/Sinners (5)
Others: George Clooney/Jay Kelly, Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere.
SUPPRORTING ACTRESS
1) Teyana Taylor/One Battle After Another (1)
2) Ariana Grande/Wicked: For Good (2)
3) Elle Fanning/Sentimental Value (4)
4) Amy Madigan/Weapons (3)
5) Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas/Sentimental Value (5)
Others: Regina Hall/One Battle After Another, Gwyneth Paltrow/Marty Supreme and Hailee Steinfeld/Sinners.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Stellan Skarsgard/Sentimental Value (1)
2) Sean Penn/One Battle After Another (2)
3) Paul Mescal/Hamnet (3)
4) Adam Sandler/Jay Kelly (4)
5) Benicio del Toro/One Battle After Another (5)
Others: Jacob Elordi/Frankenstein, DelRoy Lindo/Sinners and Jeremy Strong/Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) Sinners (1)
2) Sentimental Value (2)
3) Marty Supreme (3)
4) Jay Kelly (4)
5) It Was Just an Accident (5)
Others: A House of Dynamite, Weapon and Blue Moon.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) Hamnet (2)
2) One Battle After Another (1)
3) Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (3)
4) Bugonia (4)
5) Train Dreams (5)
Others: Frankenstein, No Other Choice and Wicked: For Good.
COMMENT: Sentimental Value is predicted to earn seven nominations in these eight categories to lead the way. Here's the breakdown of the 10 films MTFB has with possible Oscar nominations in the Big Eight categories:
Sentimental Value (7): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Reinsve), Supporting Actress (Fanning), Supporting Actress (Ibsdotter Lilleaas), Supporting Actor (Skarsgard), Original Screenplay.
Hamnet (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Buckley), Supporting Actor (Mescal), Adapted Screenplay.
Jay Kelly (3): Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Sandler), Original Screenplay.
Bugonia (3): Best Picture, Actress (Stone) and Adapted Screenplay.
It Was Just an Accident (2): Best Picture, Original Screenplay.
The Secret Agent (1): Best Actor (Moura).
Blue Moon (1): Best Actor (Hawke).
Other "possible" nominations:
Frankenstein: Best Direction, Supporting Actor (Elordi), Adapted Screenplay.
Jay Kelly: Best Direction, Actor (Clooney).
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere: Best Actor (White), Supporting Actor (Strong).
The Secret Agent: Best Picture.
If I Had Legs I's Kick You: Best Actress (Byrne).
Blue Moon: Best Original Screenplay.
Total MTFB predicted nominations from these eight categories for Telluride films: 22
Other "possible" nominations: 10.
LOOKS AT JAY KELLY
With its release coming in less than a month (Dec. 5th), the P.R. is ramping up for Noah Baumbach's Jay Kelly starring George Clooney, Adam Sandler and Laura Dern. Here's a taste of some of the promo that's in the air for the film.
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