TFF #36 and The Oscar Clearinghouse #5...Pre-Turkey Edition

Jeff Bridges is red hot in the Best Actor race...

As we get ready for Thanksgiving and the obligatory over eating that comes with it, here are some opening thoughts from the Clearinghouse before we get to the breakdown of each category...

UP IN THE AIR is staying strong and is considered by many to be the favorite to win Best Picture at this point...still with Nine, Lovely Bones, Invictus and Avatar still out there to be debuted it's not yet time to place your bets.

Saw trailers on the tube for Invictus, Avatar and UITA since our last post...Invictus looked better than I thought it would. Avatar does not. Lovely Bones continues a slight swoon as we move closer to its release...Avatar has gathered some heat in the interim since Clearinghouse # 4. and Jeff Bridges and "Crazy Heart" has zoomed onto the radar from complete obscurity in the last three weeks...we'll see if he and the movie have any staying power.

This entry of the Clearinghouse adds "Rope of Silicon", The Envelope and Gurus of Gold to the database...Now on to the categories...(TFF PIX IN CAPS AND BOLD)

Best Picture: 1) UP IN THE AIR, 2) The Hurt Locker, 3) Nine, 4) Precious, 5) Invictus, 6) AN EDUCATION, 7) Up, 8) The Lovely Bones, 9) Avatar, 10) A Serious Man.

Others in play: Inglorious Basterds, A Single Man, BRIGHT STAR, THE LAST STATION, THE ROAD, Julie and Julia.

Comments: Biggest Momentum...Hurt Locker, Avatar, A Single Man (finally catching up to the heat in the Best Actor and Supporting Actress categories...which have actually cooled a little) and The Road gets a bump...maybe because it finally gets released this week. Tree of Life drops out of all categories (including director and script) as the various guessperts factor in its release date being set for 2010.

Best Direction: 1) JASON REITMAN, 2) Kathryn Bigelow, 3) Rob Marshall, 4) Clint Eastwood, 5) Lee Daniels.

Lurkers: James Cameron, Peter Jackson, LONE SCHERFIG, Quentin Tarantino, Coen Brothers.

Comments: James Cameron is getting some good buzz in the run up to the release of Avatar.

Best Actor: 1) Morgan Freeman, 2) GEORGE CLOONEY, 3) Colin Firth, 4) Jeff Bridges, 5) Daniel Day-Lewis.

Others: Jeremy Renner, VIGGO MORTENSEN, Matt Damon, Michael Stuhlbarg, Robert DeNiro.

Comments: Two weeks ago Jeff Bridges best shot at a nomination was thought to be in supporting for The Men Who Stare at Goats...man, these change fast! His performance has exploded out of almost nowhere to leap into the #4 spot as a likely nominee...And that's really hurt Jeremy Renner's campaign as he drops from nominee to a "maybe" in status. Also a nice couple of weeks for Viggo as he returns to consideration as does the serious man, Michael Stuhlbarg.

Best Actress: 1) CAREY MULLIGAN, 2) Meryl Streep, 3) Gabby Sidibe, 4) HELEN MIRREN, 5) ABBIE CORNISH.

Lurkers: Saroise Ronan, Marion Cotillard, Sandra Bullock, Maggie Gyllenhall, Michelle Monaghan.

Comments: Cornish returns to "nominee" status. Bullock and Gyllenhall both appear for the first time. And the fall of Hilary Swank and Amelia is complete as she drops completely off the chart.

Best Supporting Actor: 1) Christoph Waltz, 2) Stanley Tucci, 3) ALFRED MOLINA, 4) Matt Damon, 5) CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER.

On the Outside Looking In: PETER SAARSGARD, Anthony Mackie, Christian McKay, Stanley Tucci (again), PAUL SCHNEIDER.

Dropping Out: JAMES MC AVOY.

Comment: Matt Damon is losing a little steam and Paul Schneider returns to the chart, replacing fellow TFF #36 potential nominee James McAvoy.

Best Supporting Actress: 1) Mo'Nique, 2) Penelope Cruz, 3) ANNA KENDRICK, 4) Julianne Moore, 5) VERA FARMIGA.

Lurkers: Judi Dench, Susan Sarandon, Samantha Morton, Marion Cotillard, Mariah Carey.

Comments: Moore falls a little bit and Samantha Morton comes on strong for her work in The Messenger. Also, Mariah Carey enters the chart...getting great notice for a small part and looking nothing like herself...look out for her.

Dropping out: Rachel Wiesz and Melanie Laurent.

Adapted Screenplay: 1) Precious, 2) UP IN THE AIR, 3) AN EDUCATION, 4) Invictus, 5) Nine

Others: The Lovely Bones, A Single Man, THE LAST STATION, Julie and Julia, Wild Things.

Dropping: THE ROAD.

Original Screenplay: 1) Up, 2) A Serious Man, 3) The Hurt locker, 4) 500 Days of Summer, 5) Inglorious Basterds.

And...BRIGHT STAR, District 9, It's Complicated, Avatar, THE WHITE RIBBON.

Dropping: Tree of Life and In the Loop.

Breakdown of THE BIG EIGHT CATEGORIES...Predicted Nominees: UP IN THE AIR-6, Nine, Precious, and Invictus-5, AN EDUCATION-4, and The Hurt Locker -3.

Nominations and Near Noms combined: Nine-7, UP IN THE AIR, Precious, AN EDUCATION, The Lovely Bones-6, The Hurt Locker, Invictus and A Single Man-5, Inglorious Basterds, BRIGHT STAR, THE LAST STATION, Julie and Julia-4

TFF#36...still 13 predicted nominations and 10 near noms...

The Clearinghouse will return next just prior to Christmas/New Years. Planning to spend New Year's Eve back in Telluride!

Day Three

A shorter day of film today as we give our evening in Telluride over to our hosts who so graciously make it possible for this to occur each year.

And a tough day of film going it was...Started off the day with "Room and a Half" the Russian memoriam to poet Joseph Brodsky (met the director at the Patron Brunch on Friday) ..some clever animation and some arresting images...but , Good Lord, the film was slow. And that turned out to be the theme of the day! SLOOOOOWWW.... 2 Stars out of 4

Second film was the much anticipated Jane Campion entry "Bright Star"...poet John Keats ill-fated romance with Fanny Brawne. Abbie Cornish: Good, Costumes:Good...the rest...SLOOOOOWWW. 2 and 1/2 Stars of 4.

Third film: Oscar Nominee Brenda Blethyn in "London River"...she's good but the film is predictable and SLOOOOWWWW! 2 stars out of 4>

Ultimately, today's films paled in comparison to yesterday's line-up. One hopes that the last day makes up for that.

Tomorrow sees us hoping to get in "The Road" and maybe "A Prophet" and "Vincere"...and a Viggo Mortensen sighting as well as a Nic Cage sighting...and Daryl Hannah would be a bonus! And purportedly Curtis Hanson is in town...writer/director of "LA Confidential"...one of the best movies in the last fifteen years...would love to meet him too!)

My fave so far...Todd Solondz's "Life During Wartime" and Jason Reitman's "Up in the Air" (sat next to him during the "Bright Star" presentation this afternoon...can you believe it???)

Can't wait for Monday...but so sad it's here so soon!

And a quick note to Joel, Heather and Natausha...as you may have guessed...Mrs. P and I are "off the clock". Love!

And now, on to the SHOW

After the ten hour drive we are here.

Ready to grapple with the next four days and very excited about them and the chance to see great film. On tap: A Prophet, Vincere, The Road, Bad Lieutenant, Coco Before Chanel, The Last Station and many others.

Have already spotted documentarian Ken Burns (personal hero) and critic/reporter/bloggers Anne Thompson and Eugene Hernandez.

Girding up for the Patron Brunch in the morning at Skyline Ranch. Purportedly Viggo Mortensen (The Road) and Nicolas Cage (Bad Lieutenant) are already in town and we hope to see them there.

Finally...still pretty sure Jason Reitman's "Up in the Air" will "sneak" on Sunday or Monday...and can't wait to see it.

Can't believe I get to do this...

Thanks Larry and Mitzi...

And Away We Go

Leaving in about an hour. Word is that the official schedule will be released at noon today...but if you're following the chatter on the web you probably already have a pretty good idea of what's likely to show up...

But if not...here is an incomplete list of what to expect...

"Coco Before Chanel" (starring the incandescent Audrey Tautou), "Bright Star" (new from Jane Campion of "The Piano" fame), "Life During Wartime" (Todd Soldonz's newest...with Ally Sheedy and Allison Janney among others), "A Prophet" (Cannes entry), "The Road" (Viggo Mortensen in Cormac McCarthy's post-apocalyptic story...also has Guy Pearce, Charlize Theron, and Robert Duvall), "Bad Lieutenant: Port of Call New Orleans" (Werner Herzog directs Nicolas Cage in a re-imagining of the Abel Ferrera original), "Up in the Air" (Jason Reitman's post-Juno project starring George Clooney), "An Education" ( a Sundance favorite with Peter Sarrsgard) and "The Last Station" with an incredible cast: Christopher Plummer, Helen Mirren, Paul Giamatti and James McAvoy....

Can't wait to hit the road, and hope to see and talk to some of you in Telluride!

First Inkling

Anne Thompson writing in her blog has let slip that Jane Campion's "Bright Star" will be in Telluride this year. She makes the comment in a story that talks about the announcement of a new distributing company called "Apparition". You can find Thompson"s blog at http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/.

"Bright Star" can be found at imdb at www.imdb.com/title/tt0810784. The film is the story of poet John Keats and his romance with Fanny Brawne in the 19th century and features Ben Whishaw and Abbie Cornish in those roles.

This blog included "Bright Star" as a possible Telluride pic in our last post.

Appartion also has the distribution for Terrence Malick's "The Tree of Life" starring Brad Pitt and Sean Penn...Thompson does not say but implies that Malick's film will not be ready for Telluride presentation...but you never know.