Michael's Telluride Film Blog : It's Oscar Morning in America: The Final FAC (Again)/The New Final Predictions and Re-posts of the Final FAC and Actual Experts

Welcome to Oscar Sunday...

Nothing much has changed to my mind since the "final" Film Awards Clearinghouse went up on Thursday. There was some buzz yesterday that The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg had revised his Supporting Actress pick from Jennifer Lawrence to Lupita Nyong'o. There also seems to be a bit of a groundswell for "The Voorman Problem" in Best Live Action Short over "Helium" which is what The FAC Final had. But, all in all, I'm staying with what I published on Thursday.

NOTE: I WILL BE live tweeting, or, more accurately re-tweeting the Oscar results tonight via this account: @Gort2

For this set of predictions I have consulted the publicly posted picks from:

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/HitFix-InContention
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit

THE LOCKS

Out of the 24 categories, a dozen Oscars appear to be locked up including three of the four acting trophies.

"Gravity" appears to be solidly in place to win: Best Direction (Alfonso Cuaron), Original Score, Cinematography, Sound Mixing and Visual Effects. It's also a player in other categories as you'll read below.

"Dallas Buyers Club" seems to be a lock for three Oscars: Best Actor (Matthew McConaughey), Best Supporting Actor (Jared Leto) and Best Makeup/Hair.

"Frozen" has a choke hold on two Oscars: Best Animated Feature as well as Best Song for "Let it Go".

The two other locks are Cate Blanchett for Best Actress for "Blue Jasmine" and "Get a Horse" as Best Animated Short.

BIG LEADS

There are categories that don't look locked but do have strong favorites.

Best Adapted Screenplay, for example, looks very likely to go to "12 Years a Slave" but there is a slight undercurrent that "Philomena" has a chance to sneak in.

Production Design appears likely to go to "The Great Gatsby" despite some sentiment that "Gravity" could win here or Spike Jonze's "Her".

Short Form Documentary is probably going to "The Lady in #6".

Sound Editing is probable for "Gravity".

AND THE COMPETITIVE CATEGORIES

Eight Oscar categories appear to have serious races going on including the biggest prize, Best Picture.

Here's the breakdown of those categories:

Best Live Action Short: The FAC says "Helium" wins in a squeaker but that "The Voorman Problem" and "Just Before Losing Everything" are also possible.

Costumes: It's now a dead heat between "American Hustle" and "The Great Gatsby". The FAC says it's a tie. I'm going to break the tie in favor of "Gatsby".

Film Editing: "Gravity" is the probable winner (says the FAC) but don't be surprised if "Captain Phillips" picks up this Oscar.

Documentary: The FAC says "20 Feet from Stardom" but it's a tight category with "The Act of Killing" and "The Square" also real possibilities.

Foreign Language Film: "The Great Beauty" has an edge here (in a late charge) but "The Hunt" or "The Broken Circle Breakdown" could also win.

Original Screenplay: This is a real race between "Hustle" and "Her". The FAC points to "Her". I'm personally thinking "Hustle".

Best Supporting Actress: "12 Years a Slave's" Lupita Nyong'o maintains a lead in the FAC metric, but Jennifer Lawrence ("Hustle") could steal a second straight Oscar.

AND BEST PICTURE:

The FAC still says "12 Years a Slave" but "Gravity" hasn't faded and I still think "American Hustle" could split the vote and come out on top.

If the FAC is 100% accurate (and it is historically about 75% accurate)...

"Gravity" ends the night with seven Oscars but that could go as high as nine.

"12 Years a Slave" wins three, including Picture. "12 Years" could also go home empty handed. It's best shot to add to its total is likely Costumes.

"Dallas Buyers Club" wins three.

"Frozen" and "Gatsby" win two each. "American Hustle" and "Blue Jasmine" each win one Oscar.

NEW FINAL PREDICTIONS

Film Misery:

http://www.filmmisery.com/oscar-countdown-best-picture-director/

Film Experience:

http://thefilmexperience.net/blog/2014/2/28/2-days-til-oscar-final-oscar-predictions.html

The Carpetbagger/New York Times:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/28/movies/awardsseason/the-carpetbaggers-2014-oscar-predictions.html?_r=0

Tomris Laffly/Popcorn Business

http://popcornbusiness.blogspot.com/2014/02/86th-academy-awards-predictions.html

FINALS

I have included links here to the final predictions from Scott Feinberg of The Hollywood Reporter and Variety. I'll be tweeting and posting additional "Finals" over the next three days.

Feinberg: