FAC Update/Oscarologists/Royal Treatment/This and That/New Theater News

Good Monday to All...hope it was a good weekend...

FAC UPDATE: PICTURE, ACTRESS, ACTOR

Here's this week's updated look at some of the major categories in contention for Oscar glory.


The FAC reviews the Oscar predictions of the following to arrive at its "predictions":

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Scott Feinberg/The Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter
Kristopher Tapley/InContention-HitFix
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood-IndieWire
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Alex Carlson/Film Misery

 As always the number in parenthesis to a title is its position vis-a-vis the last posting for that category on The FAC updates. Telluride #39 films are indicated in Bold. [ *** ='s HOT, ### ="s NOT].

BEST PICTURE

1) Argo (1)
2) Lincoln (3)
3) Silver Linings Playbook (2)
4) Life of Pi (4)
5) Les Miserables (5)
6) The Master (6)
7) Beasts of the Southern Wild (7)
8) Amour (8)
9) Flight (10)
10) Zero Dark Thirty (11)
11) Moonrise Kingdom (13)***
12) Django Unchained (12)
13) Hitchcock (9)###
14) The Sessions (14)
15) The Impossible (New)***

Dropping Out (again): Promised Land

Comments: Moonrise Kingdom continues its two week rise up the chart.  As I said last week, I think that's because people have been reminded of it due to its DVD/VOD release.  "Lincoln" is getting a little lift as it gets more exposure via screenings and a limited opening this past weekend.  It opens across the country on Friday.  Will that be enough of a boost to catch "Argo"?  Doubtful, but it could/should close the gap a bit.  "The Impossible" is this week's new addition at the bottom of the chart.  It, along with "Anna Karenina", "Promised Land" and "The Sessions" have danced around that spot for a good long time.

"Hitchcock" has lost some steam. The "buzz" seems to be coalescing around the notion that Hopkins and Mirren are serious contenders for acting nominations but that the Sacha Gervasi film has an uphill climb for a Best Picture nomination.


BEST ACTRESS

1) Jennifer Lawrence/Silver Linings Playbook (1)
2) Quevenzhane Wallis/Beasts of the Southern Wild (2)
3) Emanuelle Riva/Amour (4)
4) Marion Cotillard/Rust and Bone (3)
5) Helen Mirren/Hitchcock (6)
6) Naomi Watts/The Impossible (5)
7) Keira Knightley/Anna Karenina (7)

8) Jessica Chastain/Zero Dark Thirty (8)

9) Mary Elizabeth Winstead/Smashed (9)

10) Judi Dench/Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (New-ish)

Dropping Out:  Meryl Streep/Hope Springs

Comments:  Not a lot of movement the last two weeks since my latest update for this category.  I was surprised that Jessica Chastain didn't pick up some momentum as all the predictors had her appropriately in this category rather than Best Supporting Actress...but that didn't happen.  She stayed right at #8.

BEST ACTOR

1) Daniel Day Lewis/Lincoln (2)

2) Joaquin Phoenix/The Master (1)

3) John Hawkes /The Sessions (4)

4) Denzel Washington/Flight (3)

5) Anthony Hopkins (5)

6) Bradley Cooper (6)

7) Hugh Jackman (7)

8) Jean Louis Tritignant/Amour (8)

9) Richard Gere/Arbitrage (9)

10) Jamie Foxx/Django Unchained (New)***

Dropping Out: Matt Damon/Promised Land

Comments: Also not a lot of movement in this category either.  It is, perhaps, significant that Day Lewis and Phoenix have traded spots at the top which may reflect "Lincoln's" momentum as well as some reaction to Phoenix's recent disparagement of the awards process and Oscar.  Though more recent reports indicate that Phoenix may have walked back his criticism...

Also, Jamie Foxx cracks the top ten and Christoph Waltz (of "Django Unchained")got some votes after it was announced this week that "Lead Actor" would be the category that The Weinstein Company would campaign him in.  It's widely believed that TWC made the decision to clear the path for a possible Supporting nomination for Leonardo DiCaprio's role in the same film.

Next Monday I'll update Best Picture and the Supporting Acting categories.

OSCAROLOGISTS

     OSCAR TALK (Tapley and Thompson):

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/oscar-talk-ep-95-everyones-predicting-lincoln-and-skyfall-land

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/oscar-talk-lincoln-premiere-dissecting-gurus-o-gold-cinematography

     OSCAR POKER (Jeff Wells):

http://hollywood-elsewhere.com/2012/11/return_of_kenny.php

     OSCAR PREDICTIONS (Tom O'Neil):

http://ec.libsyn.com/p/9/8/c/98cc572d76a546ce/imdb_2_1.mp3?d13a76d516d9dec20c3d276ce028ed5089ab1ce3dae902ea1d01cd8530d3ce5eb4f6&c_id=5131562

     NEW FEINBERG FORECAST:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/lincoln-les-miserables-silver-linings-386582




ROYAL TREATMENT

Director Nikolaj Arcel's "A Royal Affair" that showed at this year's SHOW as part of the Mads Mikkelsen tribute (along with his Cannes Best Actor winning turn in "The Hunt") has been awarded the audience prize from its appearance at the AFI (American Film Institute) Fest.  "A Royal Affair" is Denmark;s entry for the Foreign Language Oscar and stars Alicia Vikander alongside Mikkelsen.  "A Royal Affair" focuses on an illicit love affair that leads to revolution...

As a result of its award it showed up in  a number of posts/stories this week:

http://www.hitfix.com/awards-campaign/discover-the-next-big-thing-alicia-vikander-of-a-royal-affair-and-anna-karenina

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/roundup-oscar-hopeful-a-royal-affair-wins-big-at-afi-fest#W0g5k3QEdvj2qjfb.99

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/denmarks-a-royal-affair-takes-387899

http://moviecitynews.com/2012/11/the-gronvall-files-a-royal-affair-to-remember-with-filmmaker-nikolaj-arcel/

http://www.sfgate.com/movies/article/Mads-Mikkelsen-raises-profile-with-film-TV-roles-4023608.php

"A Royal Affair's" IMDb entry is here:

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1276419/


THIS AND THAT: VARIOUS POSTS

Taking a look at posts from here and there about other TFF #39 films that appeared around the web this week.

     ARGO

http://thegardenisland.com/entertainment/night-life/argo-believe-the-hype/article_244d68ec-2bb6-11e2-b780-001a4bcf887a.html

http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/envelope/goldstandard/la-et-mn-oscar-8ball-argo-ben-affleck-20121108,0,4778557.story


     AMOUR

Amour has a new U.S. trailer...

http://www.firstshowing.net/2012/watch-trailer-for-michael-hanekes-cannes-palme-dor-winner-amour/


     PAPERMAN

The short from Disney makes the final cut to 10 as does another TFF #39 short "Tram":

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/disneys-paperman-10-short-animated-388199


     LOVE, MARILYN

The Hollywood Reporter interviews one of the standouts from the Liz Garbus documentary:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/amy-greene-love-marilyn-385836


     RUST AND BONE

Sony Pictures Classics has added new stills from the Jacques Audiard film to its Facebook page:

http://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.139236132888135.39961.139234772888271&type=3


NEW THEATER NEWS

A few weeks back, I (think) I broke the story that the Telluride Film Festival was desirous of a new theater and had offered to aid in the project to enclose and update the Haney Pavilion in Town Park as a means to that end.  My understanding is that the TFF folks would like it to be ready for TFF #40.

The Telluride Daily Planet posted an update on that process this week:


http://www.telluridenews.com/articles/2012/11/11/news/doc509ff41250c2e575274148.txt

More on Thursday...have a good week!

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