Monday, November 26, 2012

FAC Update/Oscar Matters/Rust and Royal

Good Post-Thanksgiving Monday to Everyone!



The release of "Lincoln" and preview screenings of "Les Miserables" and "Zero Dark Thirty" have shaken the landscape of the Best Picture race...But again, for the second straight week the top 15 stay the same with movement within them.

The FAC reviews the Oscar predictions of the following to arrive at its "predictions":

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Scott Feinberg/The Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter
Kristopher Tapley/InContention-HitFix
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood-IndieWire
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Alex Carlson/Film Misery

 As always the number in parenthesis to a title is its position vis-a-vis the last posting for that category on The FAC updates. Telluride #39 films are indicated in Bold. [ *** ='s HOT, ### ="s NOT].

1) Argo (1)  
2) Lincoln (2)
3) Les Miserables (5)***
4) Silver Linings Playbook (3)
5) Life of Pi (4)
6) The Master (6)
7) Beasts of the Southern Wild (7)
8) Zero Dark Thirty (10)***
9) Amour (8)
10) Flight (9)
11) Moonrise Kingdom (11)
12) Hitchcock (13)
13) Django Unchained (12)
14) The Sessions (14)
15) The Impossible (15)

Comments:  "Lincoln" stays at #2...barely.  The Spielberg film has eaten away at "Argo's" lead.  I really expect that it will overtake "Argo" by next week's update.  Substantial moves for "Les Miserables" and "Zero Dark Thirty" as well.

I saw "Lincoln" this past weekend and, frankly, I think it's likely to win Best Picture.  I still have a lot to see before the season is over, but that's where I'd put my money right now.  I also saw Ang Lee's "Life of Pi" and was not remotely blown away in the fashion that many others have been.  It's beautifully shot but the transcendent journey that it wants to take you on seems awfully flat to transcendence for this guy.


1) Lincoln (3)***
2) Argo (1)
3) Silver Linings Playbook (2)
4) Beasts of the Southern Wild (4)
5) Life of Pi (6)
6) Les Miserables (7)
7) The Sessions (5)###
8) Anna Karenina (8)
9) On the Road (9)
10) The Hobbit (New)***

Dropping Out: Hitchcock

Comments: Adapted Screenplay shows the same trends as Best Picture.


1) The Master (1)
2) Moonrise Kingdom (2)
3) Amour (3)
4) Zero Dark Thirty (5)
5) Django Unchained (4)
6) Flight (8)***
7) Looper (7)
8) Promised Land (6)###
9) Arbitrage (10)
10) Middle of Nowhere (New)***

Dropping Out: Seven Psychopaths

Comments: Still getting one prediction for "The Sessions" in this category and now I am seeing "The Intouchables" show up in both Adapted and Original categories.  If these experts could decide where it belongs it could be sniffing at being on one chart or the other.


1) Life of Pi (1)
2) The Master (2)
3) Skyfall (10)***
4) Lincoln (3)
5) Les Miserables (5)
6) Anna Karenina (4)###
7) Django Unchained (6)
8) Beasts of the Southern wild (7)
9) Cloud Atlas (9)
10) The Dark Knight Rises (8)###

Comments:  With its release, Roger Deakins filming of "Skyfall" has rocketed him from a "barely on the chart" possibility to very nearly a lock for a


1) Argo (1)
2) Lincoln (2)
3) Les Miserables (4)
4) Zero Dark Thirty (3)
5) Silver Linings Playbook (8)***
6) Life of Pi (6)
7) The Master (5)###
8) The Dark Knight Rises (7)
9) Skyfall (New)***
10) Cloud Atlas (New)***

Dropping Out: Django Unchained, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Comments:  A lot of movement in this category since I last surveyed the experts with "Silver Linings" benefiting the most.  As I and many others have pointed out before, there's a weird symbiotic relationship between Best Picture wins and film editing win the big prize a film almost always has to be at least nominated for editing...

Final Thought:  It seems that this year's Oscar race may be a three headed beast: "Argo", "Lincoln" and "Les Miz" with "Pi" and "Silver Linings" as possible interlopers into that mixture.  As I said bet is on "Lincoln" at least for the time being.


As if to underscore my point about "Lincoln", Dave Poland posted a new Gurus of Gold Best Picture chart yesterday...with "Lincoln" in the lead for the first time (albeit by the smallest of margins).  Look here:

Scott Feinberg's latest Feinberg Forecast from The Hollywood Reporter:


Gold Derby also has a new video interview with "Rust and Bone" star and likely Best Actress nominee (and TFF #39 tributee) Marion Cotillard:'rust-and-bone'-tragedy-can-bring-rebirth-%5bvideo%5d.html


Anne Thompson interviews the screenwriters of Denmark's Foreign Language film entry for Oscar consideration (which stars another TFF 339 tributee-Mads Mikkelsen) as well as providing links to interviews with Mikkelsen and Alicia Vikander here:

More on Thursday...

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