Monday, December 21, 2015

Newest Numbers for Supporting and Screenplays from The FAC / Foreign Language Short List / Criticwire Weighs In

Good Monday to Everyone...and Happy Holidays...


Here is the latest update foe the Supporting Acting and Screenplay categories from The FAC.

For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Peter Knegt/Indiewire
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

The positions that these possible nominees had in our last look at these categories is indicated in parenthesis.


1) Alicia Vikander/The Danish Girl (1)
2) Kate Winslet/Steve Jobs (3)
3) Rooney Mara/Carol (2)
4) Jennifer Jason Leigh/The Hateful Eight (5)
5) Rachel McAdams/Spotlight (7)

6) Helen Mirren/Trumbo (NR)
7) Jane Fonda/Youth (4)
8) Elizabeth Banks/Love and Mercy (6)
9) Kristen Stewart/Clouds of Sils Maria (NR)
10) Alicia Vikander/Ex Machina (NR)

Hot: McAdams, Mirren, Stewart and Vikander for "Ex Machina"
Not: Fonda, Banks, Allen, Walters and Chastain.

Comment: Another category that has been turned upside down over the past three weeks despite the pundits claims that precursors and critics groups don't move the Oscar needle... they sure have changed the experts perceptions.  Mirren is the perfect example as she has never been in the top ten of the FAC and suddenly appears at #6 in the latest number crunching.  That's NOT because the Oscar predictors have changed their minds about the quality of her performance.  It's because she's popped up over the last couple of weeks with a SAG nomination and a Golden Globe nomination.

Meanwhile, Joan Allen (Room), Julie Walters (Brooklyn) and Jessica Chastain (The Martian) disappear from the top ten.


1) Mark Rylance/Bridge of Spies (3)
2) Sylvester Stallone/Creed (8)
3) Idris Elba/Beasts of No Nation (9)
4) Michael Shannon/99 Homes (NR)
5) Jacob Tremblay/Room (5)

6) Michael Keaton/Spotlight (2)
7) Paul Dano/Love and Mercy (6)
8) Mark Ruffalo/Spotlight (1)
9) Christian Bale/The Big Short (NR)
10) Tom Hardy/The Revenant (4)

Hot: Rylance, Stallone, Elba, Shannon and Bale
Not: Keaton, Ruffalo, Hardy, Del Toro and Keitel

Comment: Another category that illustrates in stark terms how volatile the season is and how little confidence the experts have in their grasp of the season.  When you have ten people listed in the "Hot/Not" list above, that tells you every thing you need to know about the categories fluidity.  Fully four of the five men that are now listed as the top five (and your presumptive nominees) were NOT in the top five on our last FAC check of the category.

Open Roads' play to have the entire "Spotlight" cast as "Supporting" players may have hurt both Keaton and Ruffalo who had seemed likely to both get a nomination up until the last couple of weeks. Now, neither man may get in and, ironically, Rachel McAdams, who has been regarded as the biggest stretch to be nominated from the cast might now be the film's best shot at an acting nomination.


1) Room (2)
2) Steve Jobs (1)
3) The Martian (4)
4) Brooklyn (3)
5) The Big Short (8)

6) Carol (7)
7) Anomalisa (6)
8) The Revenant (5)
9) Trumbo (NR)
10) Creed (NR)

Hot: The Big Short, Trumbo, Creed
Not: The Revenant, The Danish Girl, 45 Years

Comment:  The resilience of "Jobs" here and in the Best Actor and Supporting Actress categories continues to impress me.  "Jobs" also sits at #11 on last Thursday's FAC Best Picture list.  I'm still thinking it could be a wild card Best Pic nominee...


1) Spotlight (1)
2) Inside Out (2)
3) The Hateful Eight (3)
4) Bridge of Spies (4)
5) Ex Machina (NR)

6) Joy (5)
7) Trainwreck (10)
8) Straight Outta Compton (NR)
9) Youth (6)
10) Sicario (7)

Hot: Ex Machina, Trainwreck, Compton
Not: Youth, Sicario, Love and Mercy and Son of Saul

Comment: My desire that "Son of Saul" get into the Best Picture conversation isn't helped as it drops out of the original screenplay top ten.


The Academy has winnowed all of the Best Foreign Language Film entrants down to nine films.  Two of those films played at TFF #42:  "Son of Saul" and "Viva" made the cut.  "Rams", which was thought to have a strong chance at being a semi-finalist.  It also played as a part of the TFF #42 lineup.

The complete list of films still alive for the Foreign Language Oscar:

"The Brand New Testament"/Belgium
""Embrace of the Serpent"/Colombia
"A War"/Denmark
"The Fencer"/Finland
"Labyrinth of Lies"/Germany
"Son of Saul"/Hungary



Criticwire/Indiewire published their collection of rankings of 200+ critics this week.  Telluride films ended up as follows on their list of the 50 best films of 2015:

#2 "Carol"
#3 "Spotlight"
#7 "Anomalisa"
#9 "The Look of Silence" (TFF #41)
#10 "Son of Saul"
#14 "45 Years"
#15 "Room"
#21 "Taxi"
#30 "Steve Jobs"
#35 "Heart of a Dog"

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