MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SCREENPLAYS AND MORE
Before we get to this post's Oscar nomination predictions, The Academy last night extended the nomination voting window by two days and moved the announcement of nominees to Sunday, January 19th due to the L.A. fires. Now, onto the predictions which seem sort of a small consideration in light of what's going on in Southern California.
Here are updated nomination predictions for the Screenplay categories as well as for Best Costume Design, Makeup/Hair and Visual Effects. These categories were last predicted on Dec. 26th. A film's previous rank appears to the right in parentheses. TFF #51 films are in Bold.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) Conclave (1)
2) Emilia Perez (2)
3) Sing Sing (3)
4) Nickel Boys (4)
5) Dune Part Two (5)
Others: A Complete Unknown, Wicked and The Room Next Door.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) Anora (1)
2) The Brutalist (2)
3) A Real Pain (3)
4) The Substance (4)
5) September 5 (5)
Others: Hard Truths, All We Imagine as Light and The Seed of the Sacred Fig.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1) Wicked (1)
2) Dune Part Two (2)
3) Gladiator II (4)
4) Maria (3)
5) Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (5)
Others: Nosferatu, Conclave and Blitz.
BEST MAKEUP/HAIR
1) The Substance (1)
2) Wicked (2)
3) Dune Part Two (3)
4) Nosferatu (4)
5) A Different Man (5)
Others: Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Emilia Perez, The Apprentice.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1) Dune Part Two (1)
2) Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (3)
3) Wicked (4)
4) Gladiator II (2)
5) Better Man (-)
Others: Twisters, Mufasa: The Lion King and Alien: Romulus
MTFB PREDICTED NOMINATION TOTALS
As we look down the barrel, we're only eight days away from Oscar Nomination morning. As of the latest MTFB predictions, these are your accumulated totals:
I'm expecting Emilia Perez to lead all films with 11 nominations: Best Picture, International Feature, Direction, Actress (Gascon), Supporting Actress (Saldana), Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Score, Song (x2) and Sound.
The Brutalist (10): Best Picture, Direction, Actor (Brody), Supporting Actress (Jones), Supporting Actor (Pearce), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Score and Production Design.
Dune Part Two (9): Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Sound, Costumes, Makeup/Hair and Visual Effects.
Wicked (8): Best Picture, Actress (Erivo), Supporting Actress (Grande), Production Design, Sound, Costumes, Makeup/Hair and Visual Effects.
Conclave (7): Best Picture, Direction, Actor (Fiennes), Supporting Actress (Rossellini), Adapted Screenplay, Editing and Score.
Anora (6): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Madison), Supporting Actor (Borisov), Original Screenplay and Editing.
Gladiator II (5): Best Supporting Actor (Washington), Production Design, Sound, Costumes and Visual Effects.
Nickel Boys (4): Best Picture, Direction, Adapted Screenplay and Cinematography.
A Complete Unknown (4): Best Picture, Actor (Chalamet), Supporting Actor (Norton) and Sound.
A Real Pain (3): Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Culkin) and Original Screenplay.
Sing Sing (3): Best Picture, Actor (Domingo) and Adapted Screenplay.
Maria (3): Best Actress (Jolie), Cinematography and Costumes.
The Wild Robot (3): Best Animated Feature, Score and Song.
The Substance (3): Best Actress (Moore), Original Screenplay and Makeup/Hair.
Nosferatu (3): Best Cinematography, Production Design and Makeup/Hair.
Challengers (2): Best Original Score and Song.
Single nominations for:
The Seed of the Scared Fig: International Feature.
I'm Still Here: International Feature.
The Girl with the Needle: International Feature
Vermiglio: International Feature.
Inside Out 2: Animated Feature
Flow: Animated Feature
Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl: Animated Feature.
Memoir of a Snail: Animated Feature.
Sugarcane: Documentary Feature.
No Other Land: Documentary Feature.
Daughters: Documentary Feature.
Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat: Documentary Feature.
Dahomey: Documentary Feature.
Queer: Actor (Craig)
The Piano Lesson: Supporting Actress (Deadwyler).
September 5: Original Screenplay.
The Six Triple Eight: Song.
Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice: Costumes.
A Different Man: Makeup/Hair.
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: Visual Effects.
Better Man: Visual Effects.
All told MTFB says 11 TFF #51 films land 40 total nominations.
On Monday, I'll have predictions for the Shorts categories and then full predictions for all 23 categories on Thursday the 16th.
SAG AND DGA NOMINATIONS AND TFF
The Screen Actors Guild announced their 2024 nominees for film yesterday via a press release as opposed the originally planned live announcement. That was scrapped as a result of the massive wild fires that are still ablaze this morning in the Los Angeles area.
In each of the six film categories here were the nominees from TFF #51 films:
Best Actor: Ralph Fiennes/Conclave.
Best Actress: Mikey Madison/Anora and Karla Sofia Gascon/Emilia Perez.
Best Supporting Actor: Yura Borisov/Anora, Kieran Culkin/A Real Pain and Jeremy Strong/The Apprentice.
Best Supporting Actress: Danielle Deadwyler/The Piano Lesson and Zoe Saldana/Emilia Perez.
Best Cast: Anora, Conclave and Emilia Perez.
TFF had no films nominated in the Action/Stunt Ensemble category.
Kind of surprising omissions: Angelina Jolie (Maria) in Lead Actress and Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) for Supporting Actress.
Lots of strength for A Complete Unknown and Wicked.
Meanwhile the Director's Guild of America (DGA) named its five nominees for Outstanding Directing for 2025 yesterday as well. Three TFF #51 directors were nominated: Jacques Audiard/Emilia Perez, Sean Baker/Anora and Edward Berger/Conclave. The other two nominees are Brady Corbet/The Brutalist and James Mangold/A Complete Unknown.
At present, the Producers Guild is set to announce their nominees on Friday but that could change due to the fires as well.
INDIEWIRE'S 50+ MOST ANTICIPATED AND TFF #52
IndieWire published its list of 50+ films that they're most excited about for 2025 last week and from the list here are the films that, on their face, seem Telluride-friendly:
The Bride/Gyllenhaal
Bugonia/Lanthimos
Marty Supreme/Safdie
Die, My Love/Ramsay
Father, Mother, Sister, Brother/Jarmusch
Frankenstein/Del Toro
Materialists/Song
The Phoenician Scheme/Anderson
Untitled Baumbach
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