POST OSCAR NOMINATION MUSINGS
Now comes the time when our focus shifts from Oscar nominations to Oscar wins. The Academy Awards ceremony is set for March 2nd.
I'll begin tracking the various categories over the next five weeks as I try to predict what films will win what categories. What's fun is that there doesn't seem to be a frontrunner for Best Picture. You could make a case for several of the ten films winning the Big Prize. Emilia Perez with the most nominations, 13 in all, the most ever for an International film and just one nomination short of the all time record. But not every film with 13-14 nominations wins Best Picture...Just ask the producers of La La Land.
Also making strong cases as candidates to win: The Brutalist, Conclave, Anora and A Complete Unknown. Wicked still has a shot.
My gut says that A Complete Unknown and Conclave have momentum right now. I'll have the first set of "winner" predictions on Thursday.
We'll also get some insight as the various Guilds weigh in with their winners. The directors and the Producers Guilds start the parade on Feb. 8th.
I HAD A PRETTY GOOD DAY
Those that have been reading this space for some time and especially during this chunk of the year when MTFB focuses on the Oscar season probably have a good sense of the level of prediction success has been. For those who don't, here are the prediction success rates for the past few years:
2024: 91 of 120-75.8%
2023: 93 of 120-77.5%
2022: 87 of 120-72.5%
2021: 87 of 118-73.7%
2020: 100 of 124-80.6%
2019: 95 of 122-77.9%
Overall during this period of 724 for correct prediction rate of 76.4%. This year I was a bit ahead of that with 97 correct predictions out of 120. The correct rate? 80.8%. That raises the overall rate to 77%.
Additionally, in nine categories the film I had in the first alternate spot was nominated.
Categories where I got all the nominees: Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Original Screenplay, Animated Feature, Production Design and Makeup/Hair
My worst non-short category was Original Song where I got only three of the five.
In all but one category I had all the all of the nominees predicted as nominees or alternates. The one category where that was not true was Best Picture where I didn't have I'm Still Here within a mile of being nominated. I really thought that if the Academy chose a second International film (in addition to Emilia Perez) it would have been All That We Imagine as Light or The Seed of the Sacred Fig.
Finally, as I am being immodest concerning my predix this year, had I been a Gold Derby Expert or Editor...I would have topped them all for accuracy. Here's where they ended up:
Gold Derby Experts:
I'll be waiting for my invitation to join Gold Derby's panel for next year.
SATELLITE AWARDS AND TFF
The International Press Academy's Satellite Awards winners were announced Saturday Night. TFF films landed five wins:
Anora: Best Motion Picture (Comedy or Musical)
A Real Pain: Original Screenplay
Nickel Boys: Adapted Screenplay
Emilia Perez: Original Score, Original Song (Mi Camino)
The Brutalist was named Best Picture (Drama).
CORRECTION
I had a note from an anonymous reader last week that TFF #50 also had an Oscar nomination for Best Documentary Short. Incident did indeed screen at TFF #50.
That brings the totals for TFF films for this year's Academy Awards to 14 films with 41 nominations.
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