MTFB Oscar Update: A Look at Tight Races / ICYMI: The Producers Guild and TFF

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: A LOOK AT TIGHT RACES

In today's update I'm spotlighting the instances in major categories that are tight.

Best Picture:  It feels like seven films are safely locked: Conclave, Anora, Emilia Perez, The Brutalist, Wicked, A Complete Unknown and Dune Part Two.  The last three slots look like a fight between The Substance, A Real Pain, Nickel Boys and Sing Sing.  Also, All We Imagine as Light could sneak in with massive support from non-domestic members of the Academy.

I'm actually thinking that The Substance is nearly locked.  I won't be particularly surprised at any arrangement of Real Pain, Nickel Boys or Sing Sing in that last two slots.  I would be surprised if All We Imagine makes the list of ten.  I'd really like to see September 5 make it.  We'll see when I post the MTFB FINAL NOMINATION PREDICTIONS IN A SPECIAL POST ON WEDNESDAY.

Best Direction: Locks: Corbet, Baker, Bergen and Audiard.  Last spot: Mangold, Villenueve, Fargeat, Ross or Kapadia.  

Best Actress: Locks: Moore, Erivo, Madison and Gascon.  Last Spot: Torres, Jean-Baptiste, Jolie or Kidman.  Shocker: Winslet.

Best Actor: Locks: Fiennes, Brody, Chalamet.  Last two spots: Domingo, Stan (Apprentice), Craig, Grant.  Shocker: Eisenberg.

Best Supporting Actress: Locks: Locks: Saldana, Grande-Butera, Rossellini.  Last two spots: Barbaro, Curtis, Jones, Gomez, Qualley or Deadwyler.  The chicken bones are tending toward Curtis to grab one of these two remaining spots.  Shocker: Fanning.

Best Supporting Actor: Locks: Culkin, Norton, Borisov and Pearce.  Last spot: Strong, Washington, Maclin or Tucci.  Shocker: Magaro.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Locks: Conclave, Emilia Perez, A Complete Unknown.  Last two spots: Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, Dune Part Two, Wicked, Inside Out 2.  Shocker: Hit Man .

Best Original Screenplay: Locks: Anora, The Brutalist and A Real Pain.  Last two spots: The Substance, September 5, All We Imagine as Light or Hard Truths.  Shockers: Challengers or The Seed of the Sacred Fig.

Best Animated Feature: Locks: The Wild Robot, Flow and Inside Out 2.  Last two spots: Memoir of a Snail, Wallace and Gromet: Vengeance Most Fowl, Moana 2, Piece by Piece.  Shocker: Chicken for Linda.

Best International Film: Locks: Emilia Perez, The Seed of the Sacred Fig and I'm Still Here.  Last two spots: Vermiglio, The Girl with the Needle, Flow, Kneecap or Dahomey.  Shocker: 

Best Documentary Feature: Locks:  (probably): No Other Land, Sugar cane and Daughters.  Last two spots: Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat, Dahomey, Will & Harper, The Remarkable Life of Ibelin or Black Box.  Shocker: Union.

ICYMI: THE PRODUCERS GUILD AND TFF

The Producers Guild of America (PGA) announced their own nominees for Best Film last Thursday after MTFB had posted for the day.  So, doing my due diligence, here are their ten nominees (including the FIVE TFF #51 films in Bold):

Anora

The Brutalist

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Emilia Perez

A Real Pain

September 5

The Substance

Wicked.

September 5 was a pleasant surprise.  Tough for Sing Sing and Nickel Boys.  I'll be honest, though, I've thought Nickel Boys Oscar chances were dicey from the start based on how my Telluride crowd reacted to it and also the film's ratings for both MTFB's People's and Professional's polls.

So, could half the Best Pic field be comprised of TFF #51 films?  It could happen.  Previously I have noted that TFF has had four films make the Best Picture lineup a couple of times but never five.  Of course, Sing Sing could bump September 5 or A Real Pain off the Producers' list putting TFF films back at the most four TFF films making the lineup. 

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