Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
"But it's our job." - Anne Thompson, Indiewire
Here are my latest Oscar nomination predictions for Best Original Screenplay updated since I last posted this category on Oct. 12th. A screenplay's past position is indicated to the right in parentheses. TFF #47 films are indicated in Bold.
1) The Trial of the Chicago 7 (1)
2) Mank (2)
3) Minari (3)
4) Soul (4)
5) Promising Young Woman (8)
6) Judas and the Black Messiah (5)
7) Palm Springs (10)
8) Never Rarely Sometimes Always (6)
9) Da 5 Bloods (7)
10) Ammonite (9)
DOC NYC SHORTLIST FEATURES TFF #47 CHOICES
Indiewire's Anne Thompson reported this week on the 15 film shortlist for DOC NYC. The fest itself opened yesterday with over 100 feature documentaries programmed.
Thompson points out the influence/predictive power of the fest writing:
"Historically, most of the DOC NYC short list titles overlap with the Academy’s official 15-film Oscar Short List. For the last nine years, DOC NYC has screened the documentary that went on to win the Academy Award, including “American Factory,” “Free Solo,” “Icarus,” “O.J.: Made in America,” “Amy,” “Citizenfour,” “20 Feet From Stardom,” “Searching for Sugar Man,” and “Undefeated.” The festival has screened 24 of the last 25 Oscar-nominated documentary features. In 2019, DOC NYC screened 13 of 15 titles that were named to the subsequent Academy Award Documentary Shortlist."
This year's shortlist includes TFF #47 selections Sam Pollard's MLK/FBI (IFC Films) and Michael Dweck and Gregory Kershaw's The Truffle Hunters (Sony Pictures Classics).
ALL IN DIRECTORS TALK STACEY ABRAMS AND LAST WEEK'S ELECTION
Eric Kohn of Indiewire published an interview earlier this week with the directors, Liz Garbus and Lisa Cortes, of All In: The Fight for Democracy, a documentary focused on the fight to protect voting rights spearheaded by former Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams. Abrams is widely credited with what appears to be Joe Biden's win in that state.
The film was a selection of the 47th Telluride Film Festival zand is currently in release on Amazon Prime.
MTFB continues its first pass at predicting Oscar nominees for 2020-21 in various major categories. Today we're looking at Best Original Screenplay with, as always, a focus on those performances that were a part of the list of 29 films that TFF released that would have been screened as a part of TFF #47. Performers designated with *** are in films that may not be released prior to the Feb, 28, 2021 Oscar eligibility deadline. TFF#47 performers are in Bold:
1) The Trial of the Chicago 7
2) Mank
3) Minari
4) Soul
5) Judas and the Black Messiah
6) Never Rarely Sometimes Always
7) Da 5 Bloods
8) Promising Young Woman
9) Ammonite
10) Palm Springs
TFF #47 RUNNING TOTALS
Nomadland: Best Picture, Director (Zhao), Actress (McDormand), Supporting Actor (Stratharin), Adapted Screenplay. Total of 5 in these categories.
Ammonite: Best Picture, Actress (Winslet), Supporting Actress (Ronan). Maybe: Director (F. Lee) Best Original Screenplay. Total: 2.
The Father: Actor (Hopkins), Supporting Actress (Colman)., Adapted Screenplay Maybe: Best Picture, Director (Zeller). Total: 3
VARIETY'S DAVIS LOOKS AT DOCUMENTARY OSCAR CHANCES
Newly minted Variety Oscarologist Clayton Davis is a busy man as he has Oscar nomination predictions up at the venerable website/publication for 19 categories at this early stage of the now elongated Oscar season.
The most recent category addition to his Oscar analysis is for Best Documentary Feature. Among his Top 20 are a number of titles that were on the TFF #47 "Would Have Played" list. They are:
Recently, Indiewire chief critic Eric Kohn talked to director/writer Chloe Zhao whose Nomadland has made big waves over the last month. The film won both the Golden Lion at Venice and the People's Choice Award at the Toronto International Film Festival.
Zhao talks about the process that she used in collaboration with star Frances McDormand in order to make one of the most critically lauded films of 2020.
I'm posting my latest take on the Best Original Screenplay race today. My last Original Screenplay predictions were posted on Oct. 3rd. Each film is followed by its position from the last prediction posting in parentheses. TFF #46 films are Bold.
1) Marriage Story (1)
2) Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood (2) 3) Parasite (3)
4) The Farewell (4)
5) Bombshell (-)
Other possibles: Dolemite Is My Name, Knives Out, 1917
Notes: Bombshell explodes into the race (along with its possible shot at a Best Picture nomination). Dolemite is also gaining some momentum. The top two seem to be probable locks at this point and Parasite is edging closer to that status.
OSCAR HISTORY AND TFF: ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Here's the complete history of nominees and winners for the Best Original Screenplay category and the Telluride Film Festival:
1974- The Conversation
1983- El Norte
1987- Au Revoirs Les Enfants
1992- The Crying Game
1993- The Piano-WINNER, Three Colors: Blue
1994- Bullets Over Broadway
1996- Secrets and Lies
1997- The Sweet Hereafter
2001- Amelie
2002- Talk to Her
2003- Lost in Translation, The Barbarian Invasions
2006- Babel
2007- Juno
2008- Happy-Go-Lucky
2010- The King's Speech-WINNER, Another Year
2011-The Artist
2012- Amour
2013- Nebraska
2014- Birdman-WINNER, Foxcatcher
2015- Spotlight-WINNER
2016- Manchester by the Sea-WINNER, La La Land
2017- The Shape of Water, Lady Bird
2018- Roma, The Favourite
Overall 29 nominations and five wins.
NEW WAVES TRAILER
A24 dropped a new trailer for Trey Edward Shults' Waves starring Sterling K. Brown, Renee Elise Goldsberry, Taylor Russell and Lucas Hedges. Here that is from YouTube:
Waves will open on Nov. 15th.
FOCUS ON PARASITE
I have linked a number of stories/posts here about Bong Joon-Ho's Parasite which is currently being billed as the best reviewed film of the year. The film was certainly well regarded by Telluride attendees as it finished at the top of The Professionals and the Composite ratings. The People's Telluride had it a #2 behind The Two Popes.
DEADLINE TALKS TO DIRECTOR AND WRITER OF THE TWO POPES
As a part of their contender series Deadline.com was in London and spoke with The Two Popes director Fernando Meirelles and writer Anthony McCarten. Among the topics: the genesis if the film that focuses on Popes Francis and Benedict played by Jonathan Pryce and Anthony Hopkins respectively.