MTFB Oscar Take: The Big 8 / Marcel's Second Bow / Interview

MTFB OSCAR TAKE: THE BIG 8

BEST PICTURE

1) The Power of the Dog

2) Belfast

3) CODA

4) King Richard

5) West Side Story

6) Dune

7) Licorice Pizza

8) Don't Look Up

9) Drive My Car

10) Nightmare Alley

BEST DIRECTION

1) Jane Campion/The Power of the Dog

2) Kenneth Branagh/Belfast

3) Steven Spielberg/West Side Story

4) Licorice Pizza/Paul Thomas Anderson

5) Ryusuke Hamaguchi/Drive My Car

BEST ACTRESS

1) Jessica Chastain/The Eyes of Tammy Faye

2) Kristen Stewart/Spencer

3) Nicole Kidman/Being the Ricardos

4) Olivia Colman/The Lost Daughter

5) Penelope Cruz/Parallel Mothers

BEST ACTOR

1) Will Smith/King Richard

2) Benedict Cumberbatch/The Power of the Dog

3) Andrew Garfield/tick, tick...BOOM

4) Denzel Washington/The Tragedy of Macbeth

5) Javier Bardem/Being the Ricardos

1) BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Ariana DeBose/West Side Story

2) Kirsten Dunst/The Power of the Dog

3) Aunjanue Ellis/King Richard

4) Jesse Buckley/The Lost Daughter

5) Judi Dench/Belfast

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Troy Kotsur/CODA

2) Kodi Smit-McPhee/The Power of the Dog

3) Ciaran Hinds/Belfast

4) Jesse Plemons/The Power of the Dog

5) J.K. Simmons/Being the Ricardos

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Belfast

2) Licorice Pizza

3) Don't Look Up

4) The Worst Person in the World

5) King Richard

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) The Power of the Dog

2) The Lost Daughter

3) CODA

4) Drive My Car

5) Dune

 MARCEL'S SECOND BOW

Telluride sensation Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, which was at the top of the 2021 Telluride Professionals ratings, has made its second festival bow at South by Southwest this past week.  In as far as what I have seen coming out of Austin, audiences there seem to have been as seduced by the mollusk as viewers at The SHOW over Labor Day weekend.

Omar Gallaga's A- review for Austin 360

Rafael Motomayor for IGN

Laiken Neumann for DailyDot.com

INTERVIEW

An interview with potential Oscar winning editor Pamela Martin on King Richard from Indiwire.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

MTFB Oscar Take: Latest "Above the Line" Oscar Predictions / Film Independent Spirit Awards / Guild Awards: Art Directors and Editors / More Cannes Spec / Interviews and Profiles

MTFB OSCAR TAKE: LATEST "ABOVE THE LINE" OSCAR PREDICTIONS

BEST PICTURE

1) The Power of the Dog

2) Belfast

3) CODA

4) West Side Story

5) King Richard

6) Dune

7) Licorice Pizza

8) Don't Look Up

9) Drive My Car

10) Nightmare Alley

Comment: With its Best Cast SAG win CODA moved from #7 to #3.

BEST DIRECTION

1) Jane Campion/The Power of the Dog

2) Kenneth Branagh/Belfast

3) Steven Spielberg/West Side Story

4) Licorice Pizza/Paul Thomas Anderson

5) Ryusuke Hamaguchi/Drive My Car

BEST ACTRESS

1) Jessica Chastain/The Eyes of Tammy Faye

2) Kristen Stewart/Spencer

3) Nicole Kidman/Being the Ricardos

4) Olivia Colman/The Lost Daughter

5) Penelope Cruz/Parallel Mothers

Comment: SAG win moves Chastain to the top.

BEST ACTOR

1) Will Smith/King Richard

2) Benedict Cumberbatch/The Power of the Dog

3) Andrew Garfield/tick, tick...BOOM

4) Denzel Washington/The Tragedy of Macbeth

5) Javier Bardem/Being the Ricardos

1) BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Ariana DeBose/West Side Story

2) Kirsten Dunst/The Power of the Dog

3) Aunjanue Ellis/King Richard

4) Jesse Buckley/The Lost Daughter

5) Judi Dench/Belfast

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Troy Kotsur/CODA

2) Kodi Smit-McPhee/The Power of the Dog

3) Ciaran Hinds/Belfast

4) Jesse Plemons/The Power of the Dog

5) J.K. Simmons/Being the Ricardos

Comment: Kotsur's SAG win propels him past Smit-McPhee.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Belfast

2) Licorice Pizza

3) Don't Look Up

4) The Worst Person in the World

5) King Richard

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) The Power of the Dog

2) CODA

3) The Lost Daughter

4) Drive My Car

5) Dune

COW TRAILER

The header for this story is funny..."Cow Trailer".  Hahahahaha.  now then, Andrea Arnold's Cow has a trailer and here it is:

FILM INDEPENDENT SPIRIT AWARDS

The Film Independent Spirit Awards were handed out on Sunday.  Maggie Gyllenhaal's The Lost Daughter had an exceptional evening winning Best Feature, Director and Screenplay.  TFF #48 selection Red Rocket was also recognized for Best Actor with Simon Rex winning that award.  The complete listing of all Spirit Awards winners is linked here from The Hollywood Reporter.

GUILD AWARDS: ART DIRECTORS, ACE: EDDIES

The Art Directors Guild named their winners for 2021 films this past weekend.  No TFF #48 films made their lists.  Film winners were Nightmare Alley, No Time to Die, Dune and Encanto.

Coverage from Variety.

The American Cinema Editors (ACE) named TFF #48 film King Richard edited by Pamela Martin as the Best edited dramatic feature film of 2021.  Other winners included: tick, tcik...BOOM, Summer of Soul and Encanto.

Coverage from Nest Best Picture.

MORE CANNES SPEC

What will be the 5-8 films that will debut at Cannes and then make their first  North American appearance at TFF #49?  Obviously we won't know until Thursday, Sept. 1st but that can't stop us from thinking and predicting and hoping.  Variety's Elsa Keslassy was up last Thursday with a Cannes speculation/prediction piece and so let's parse that for titles that might be candidates for The SHOW.

James Gray's Armageddon Time/Focus Features

Florian Zeller's The Son/SPC

George Miller's Three Thousand Years of Longing UA/MGM

David Cronenberg's Crimes of the Future/NEON

Kelly Reichardt's Showing Up/A24

The Dardennes Brothers' Tori and Lokita/TBD

Hirokazu Kore-eda's Baby, Box, Broker/TBD

Ali Abassi's Hamlet/TBD

Meanwhile, Wes Anderson's latest, Asteroid City, is reportedly foregoing Cannes for Venice.  After last year's TFF "Sneak" of The French Dispatch, perhaps Anderson books a second straight film at TFF and they make the Venice to Colorado trek that has become very popular over the past several years.  Last year The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Spencer and The Card Counter and other films made that journey.

Here's that reporting from Jordan Ruimy's World of Reel.

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

Belfast writer/director Kenneth Branagh from Deadline's Oscar nominee series.

King Richard's Oscar nominee Aunjanue Ellis from Variety.

The Lost Daughter's writer/director Maggie Gyllenhaal from Gold Derby.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

MTFB Oscar Take: Winner Prediction Updates for Docs, Animated and International Feature and More / SAG Awards Announced / The Lost Daughter Wins USC Scripter

I have updated Oscar predictions for winners in these six categories today.  TFF #48 Films are Bold.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) Summer of Soul

2) Flee

3) Attica

4) Ascension

5) Writing with Fire

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Encanto

2) The Mitchells vs. the Machines

3) Flee

4) Luca

5) Raya and the Last Dragon

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) Drive My Car

2) The Worst Person in the World

3) The Hand of God

4) Flee

5) Luana: A Yak in the Classroom

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) The Power of the Dog

2) Dune

3) The Tragedy of Macbeth

4) Nightmare Alley

5) West Side Story

BEST EDITING

1) Dune

2) The Power of the Dog

3) King Richard

4) Don't Look Up

5) tick, tick...BOOM

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Dune

2) Nightmare Alley

3) West Side Story

4) The Power of the Dog

5) The Tragedy of Macbeth

A couple of quivers of movement since these categories were last updated on Feb. 17th.  Flee and Luca swap spots in Best Animated Feature as do King Richard and Don't Look Up for Editing.

The current predictions for the other 14 feature categories at the moment are:

BEST PICTURE

1) The Power of the Dog

2) Belfast

3) West Side Story

4) King Richard

5) Dune

6) Licorice Pizza

7) CODA

8) Don't Look Up

9) Drive My Car

10) Nightmare Alley

BEST DIRECTION

1) Jane Campion/The Power of the Dog

2) Kenneth Branagh/Belfast

3) Steven Spielberg/West Side Story

4) Licorice Pizza/Paul Thomas Anderson

5) Ryusuke Hamaguchi/Drive My Car

BEST ACTRESS

1) Nicole Kidman/Being the Ricardos

2) Jessica Chastain/The Eyes of Tammy Faye

3) Kristen Stewart/Spencer

4) Olivia Colman/The Lost Daughter

5) Penelope Cruz/Parallel Mothers

BEST ACTOR

1) Will Smith/King Richard

2) Benedict Cumberbatch/The Power of the Dog

3) Andrew Garfield/tick, tick...BOOM

4) Denzel Washington/The Tragedy of Macbeth

5) Javier Bardem/Being the Ricardos

1) BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Ariana DeBose/West Side Story

2) Kirsten Dunst/The Power of the Dog

3) Aujanue Ellis/King Richard

4) Jesse Buckley/The Lost Daughter

5) Judi Dench/Belfast

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Kodi Smit-McPhee/The Power of the Dog

2) Troy Kotsur/CODA

3) Ciaran Hinds/Belfast

4) Jesse Plemons/The Power of the Dog

5) J.K. Simmons/Being the Ricardos

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Belfast

2) Licorice Pizza

3) Don't Look Up

4) King Richard

5) The Worst Person in the World

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) The Power of the Dog

2) CODA

3) The Lost Daughter

4) Drive My Car

5) Dune

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Dune

2) The Power of the Dog

3) Don't Look Up

4) Encanto

5) Parallel Mothers

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) No Time to Die/No Time to Die

2) Dos Oruguitas/Encanto

3) Be Alive/King Richard

4) Down to Joy/Belfast

5) Somehow You Do/Four Good Days

BEST COSTUMES

1) Cruella

2) Dune

3) Nightmare Alley

4) West Side Story

5) Cyrano

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Dune

2) Spiderman: No Way Home

3) No Time to Die

4) Shang Chi

5) Free Guy

BEST SOUND

1) Dune

2) West Side Story

3) Not Time to Die

4) The Power of the Dog

5) Belfast

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Dune

2) Cruella

3) The Eyes of Tammy Faye

4) The House of Gucci

5) Coming 2 America

SAG AWARDS ANNOUNCED

Last night was a good night for Sundance breakout CODA and not so great a night for TFF #48 films at the SAG Awards.  CODA won Best Cast and Troy Kotsur won Best Supporting Actor for his role as the deaf father of a hearing child.

TFF #48 films only scored one win and that was an expected victory for Will Smith as Best Actor for King Richard.

Other winners were:

Best Actress: Jessica Chastain/The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Best Supporting Actress: Ariana DeBose/West Side Story

The wins for Smith and DeBose solidify their status as Oscar frontrunners.  Kotsur's win certainly improves his chances in a Oscar race that seems, or at least seemed, to be close between him and The Power of the Dog's Kodi Smit-McPhee.  And does Chastain's win mean that she's now the person to beat in a crazy and divided Best Actress Oscar field?

The Dog went 0 for 3 last night with Smit-McPhee, Benedict Cumberbatch and Kirsten Dunst all coming up short. Belfast was 0 for 2 with Caitriona Balfe dropping in Supporting Actress and the film missing for Best Cast.  King Richard also missed for Best Cast as well as for Aujanue Ellis as Supporting Actress.  The final miss for TFF #48 performers was Olivia Colman from The Lost Daughter for Best Actress.

Full coverage is linked here from CNN.

THE LOST DAUGHTER WINS THE USC SCRIPTER

The USC Scripter Award is annually presented to the Best Adapted Screenplay in the eyes of the Scripter's awards voters.  Most thought that Jane Campion's The Power of the Dog was the likely winner here but voters opted for a different TFF #48 film honoring Maggie Gyllenhaal and the script for The Lost Daughter.  The USC Scripter Award also recognizes the writer(s) of the original source material being adapted.  That included author Elena Ferrante who wrote the novel that the film is based on.

Dopesick won the award for adapted television writing.

Other screenplays nominated included Passing, Dune and The Tragedy of Macbeth.

Full details are here from Variety.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

MTFB'S Oscar Take: Updating the Big Eight / Indiewire's Critics Poll for 2021 / Interviews and Profiles: Joe Wright

MTFB'S OSCAR TAKE: UPDATING THE BIG EIGHT

With little more than a month to go until Oscar night, March 7th, here is an update on the eight major above the line categories with winners predictions.  As always TFF #48 films and performers are indicated in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) The Power of the Dog

2) Belfast

3) West Side Story

4) King Richard

5) Dune

6) Licorice Pizza

7) CODA

8) Don't Look Up

9) Drive My Car

10) Nightmare Alley

BEST DIRECTION

1) Jane Campion/The Power of the Dog

2) Kenneth Branagh/Belfast

3) Steven Spielberg/West Side Story

4) Licorice Pizza/Paul Thomas Anderson

5) Ryusuke Hamaguchi/Drive My Car

BEST ACTRESS

1) Nicole Kidman/Being the Ricardos

2) Jessica Chastain/The Eyes of Tammy Faye

3) Kristen Stewart/Spencer

4) Olivia Colman/The Lost Daughter

5) Penelope Cruz/Parallel Mothers

BEST ACTOR

1) Will Smith/King Richard

2) Benedict Cumberbatch/The Power of the Dog

3) Andrew Garfield/tick, tick...BOOM

4) Denzel Washington/The Tragedy of Macbeth

5) Javier Bardem/Being the Ricardos

1) BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Ariana DeBose/West Side Story

2) Kirsten Dunst/The Power of the Dog

3) Aujanue Ellis/King Richard

4) Jesse Buckley/The Lost Daughter

5) Judi Dench/Belfast

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Kodi Smit-McPhee/The Power of the Dog

2) Troy Kotsur/CODA

3) Ciaran Hinds/Belfast

4) Jesse Plemons/The Power of the Dog

5) J.K. Simmons/Being the Ricardos

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Belfast

2) Licorice Pizza

3) Don't Look Up

4) King Richard

5) The Worst Person in the World

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) The Power of the Dog

2) CODA

3) The Lost Daughter

4) Drive My Car

5) Dune

THE MOST RECENT PREDICTIONS FOR THE OTHER CATEGORIES

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) Summer of Soul

2) Flee

3) Attica

4) Ascension

5) Writing with Fire

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Encanto

2) The Mitchells vs. the Machines

3) Luca

4) Flee

5) Raya and the Last Dragon

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) Drive My Car

2) The Worst Person in the World

3) The Hand of God

4) Flee

5) Luana: A Yak in the Classroom

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) The Power of the Dog

2) Dune

3) The Tragedy of Macbeth

4) Nightmare Alley

5) West Side Story

BEST EDITING

1) Dune

2) The Power of the Dog

3) Don't Look Up

4) King Richard

5) tick, tick...BOOM

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Dune

2) Nightmare Alley

3) West Side Story

4) The Power of the Dog

5) The Tragedy of Macbeth

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Dune

2) The Power of the Dog

3) Don't Look Up

4) Encanto

5) Parallel Mothers

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) No Time to Die/No Time to Die

2) Dos Oruguitas/Encanto

3) Be Alive/King Richard

4) Down to Joy/Belfast

5) Somehow You Do/Four Good Days

BEST COSTUMES

1) Cruella

2) Dune

3) Nightmare Alley

4) West Side Story

5) Cyrano

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Dune

2) Spiderman: No Way Home

3) No Time to Die

4) Shang Chi

5) Free Guy

BEST SOUND

1) Dune

2) West Side Story

3) Not Time to Die

4) The Power of the Dog

5) Belfast

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Dune

2) Cruella

3) The Eyes of Tammy Faye

4) The House of Gucci

5) Coming 2 America

INDIEWIRE'S CRITICS POLL FOR 2021

Indiewire polled 187critics asking them what the best films were for 2021.  They posted those results with a Top 50 list earlier this week.  TFF #48 films did well.  Very well.  Here's the rundown of where films from The SHOW ended up on the list:

#49 King Richard

#44 Cyrano

#38 The Card Counter

#37 Spencer

#32 Red Rocket

#31 The Velvet Underground

#23 A Hero

#22 Bergman Island

#21 Belfast

#16 The Lost Daughter

#10 C'mon C'mon

#8 Petite Maman

#7 Flee

#6 The French Dispatch

#1 The Power of the Dog

The complete list from Indiewire is linked here.

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

Joe Wright/Cyrano The Film Stage's The B-side

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

The First MTFB Oscar Winners Take / Interviews and Profiles: The Power of the Dog and Cyrano

THE FIRST MTFB OSCAR WINNERS TAKE

The Oscar ceremony will be March 27th and now that we know the nominees, here's my first run at predicting the winners  I'm starting off with the Big Eight categories and will continue to add and update categories as we move through these next six weeks.  As always, TFF #48 films/performers are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) The Power of the Dog

2) Belfast

3) West Side Story

4) King Richard

5) Licorice Pizza

6)  CODA

7) Dune

8) Don't Look Up

9) Drive My Car

10) Nightmare Alley

BEST DIRECTION

1) Jane Campion/The Power of the Dog

2) Kenneth Branagh/Belfast

3) Steven Spielberg/West Side Story

4) Paul Thomas Anderson/Licorice Pizza

5) Ryusuke Hamaguchi/Drive My Car

BEST ACTOR

1) Will Smith/King Richard

2) Benedict Cumberbatch/The Power of the Dog

3) Andrew Garfield/tick, tick...BOOM

4) Denzel Washington/The Tragedy of Macbeth

5) Javier Bardem/Being the Ricardos

BEST ACTRESS

1) Nicole Kidman/Being the Ricardos

2) Kristen Stewart/Spencer

3) Jessica Chastain/The Eyes of Tammy Faye

4) Olivia Colman/The Lost Daughter

5) Penelope Cruz/Parallel Mothers

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Ariana DeBose/West Side Story

2) Kirsten Dunst/The Power of the Dog

3) Aunjanue Ellis/King Richard

4) Jesse Buckley/The Lost Daughter

5) Judi Dench/Belfast

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Kodi Smit-McPhee/The Power of the Dog

2) Troy Kotsur/CODA

3) Ciaran Hinds/Belfast

4) Jesse Plemoms/The Power of the Dog

5) J.K. Simmons/Being the Ricardos

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Belfast

2) Licorice Pizza

3) Don't Look Up

4) King Richard

5) The Worst Person in the World

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) The Power of the Dog

2) CODA

3) The Lost Daughter

4) Drive My CarInterviews and Pro

5) Dune

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

THE POWER OF THE DOG

Jane Campion/Indiewire

Kirsten Dunst/Awardist-Entertainment Weekly

Kodi Smit-McPhee/Awards Watch

CYRANO

The cast and crew of Cyrano in the Variety Streaming Room

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

MTFB Oscar Thoughts / So, You Want to Predict Best Picture?

MTFB OSCAR THOUGHTS

Well, the Oscar nominations are out and now we make the turn into the final leg of the Oscar race with the awards ceremony scheduled on March 27th.

Here's the rundown of the results of Tuesday morning's announcement in as far as Telluride films were concerned:

The Power of the Dog...WOOF!  12 nominations: Picture, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actress, 2 Supporting Actors, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Score and Sound.

Belfast 7 nominations: Picture, Direction, Supporting Actress (Dench not Balfe?), Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Song and Sound.

King Richard 6 nominations: Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Editing  and Song.

Flee 3 nominations: International Film, Documentary Film, Animated Film

The Lost Daughter 3 nominations: Actress, Supporting Actress and Adapted Screenplay

Single nominations for:

Spencer: Actress

The Hand of God: International Film

Cyrano: Costumes

Lead Me Home: Documentary Short

TFF #48 totals 35 nominations with nine films being mentioned.  Noticeably missing nominations from the TFF #48 crop were Wes Anderson's The French Dispatch, Mike Mills C'mon C'mon, Asghar Farhadi's A Hero, the documentaries The Rescue, The Velvet Underground and Procession.

 Where did TFF #48 Best Picture nominees end up last fall on the MTFB set of polls: The Professionals, The People and The Composite?

The Power of the Dog: Pros #2 ($.32), People: #1 (4.63) and the Composite: #1 (8.95)

Belfast: Pros #3 (4.30), People: #4 (4.12), Composite #2 (8.42)

King Richard: Pros #7 (3.92), People #5 (4.06), Composite #5 (7.98)

Going forward you have to think that The Power of the Dog is sitting pretty.  The field leading 12 nominations reveals strength throughout the Academy.  The actors branch, the largest in the Academy, favored the film with four acting nominations (Cumberbatch, Dunst, Smit-McPhee and perhaps most indicative of its popularity, Jesse Plemons.  The Jane Campion film could end up with the biggest haul of trophies for an Oscar Best Picture winner in years with Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay and Supporting Actor seeming very likely and awards for Actor, Supporting Actress, Cinematography,  Editing and Original Score not at all out of the question.  Other "below the line" nominations for Production Design and Sound could turn into wins but seem less likely.

My early thoughts as to who gets a trophy on Oscar night in the Big Eight categories:

Picture: The Dog

Director: Campion/The Dog

Actress: Who knows?  Say Kidman for the moment for Being the Ricardos

Actor: I'm going to go out on a limb here and predict Cumberbatch rather than Will Smith for King Richard...at least for now.

Supporting Actress: DeBose/West Side Story

Supporting Actor: Smit McPhee/The Dog

Original Screenplay: Belfast

Adapted Screenplay: The Dog

Nominations I liked: Kotsur, Hinds and Nightmare Alley

Non-noms I did not like: Balfe

Surprises Dench in, Villenueve out, Gaga out.

I go 87/120  in my nomination predictions for 72.5%.  Lowest in a few years.  

In the "Close but no cigar" Department, films/performers that got nominated that I had in the "first one out" position included: Nightmare Alley in Best Picture, Hamagughi for Director with Drive My Car, Stewart for Actress with Spencer, Bardem for Actor with Being the Ricardos, Dune for Adapted Screenplay, Attica in Documentary, West Side Story in Cinematography, The Tragedy of Macbeth in Production Design, Parallel Mothers in Original Score, Cyrano in Costumes and Ali Kachuu: Take and Run in Live Action Short.  11 of the 23 categories.

SO, YOU WANT TO PREDICT BEST PICTURE?

Here's what you need to know to predict the Best Picture Oscar.  Check out the Telluride Film Festival lineup each year and then pick the film that sits atop the MTFB Composite ranking/ratings after the festival.  Why?  Because every Best Picture winner since 2012 (except, of course,  Green Book which didn't play Telluride) has been those two criteria.

2012- Argo

2013- 12 Years a Slave

2014- Birdman

2015- Spotlight

2016- Moonlight

2017- The Shape of Water

2018- well, you know, Green Book... but the MTFB Composite winner that year was Roma

2019 - Parasite

2020- Nomadland (no Composite for this fest)

So, do you remember what landed at the #1 spot on my Composite in September?  If you said The Power of the Dog...you win a cookie (a metaphorical cookie).  

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

MTFB'S Final Oscar Nomination Predictions / Tight Spots / Final Oscar Nomination Predictions from the Experts

MTFB'S FINAL OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS

Here they be.  

My final Oscar nomination predictions for the 94th Academy Awards.  Over the last six years my success rate has been 78.5%.  Should that hold tomorrow, I'll land somewhere around 94 out of the 120 nominees that will be announced.  Additionally, the film/performer that I have listed as the first alternate in each category will be a nominee in about 30% of the cases where I miss at least one nominee in a category.  All that said, BAFTA nominations last week seemed weird and I expect some more weird tomorrow morning.

As always, TFF #48 films/performers are in Bold.

I'll have nominees up sometime fairly soon after the announcements and likely a comment or two.

BEST PICTURE 

1) Belfast

2) The Power of the Dog

3) Dune

4) Licorice Pizza

5) West Side Story

6) Don't Look Up

7) CODA

8) King Richard

9) Being the Ricardos

10) tick, tick...BOOM

Alternates: Nightmare Alley and Drive My Car

BEST DIRECTION

1) Jane Campion/The Power of the Dog

2) Kenneth Branagh/Belfast

3) Denis Villenueve/Dune

4) Paul Thomas Anderson/Licorice Pizza

5) Steven Spielberg/West Side Story

Alternates: Ryusuke Hamaguchi/Drive My Car and Adam McKay/Don't Look Up

BEST ACTRESS

1) Nicole Kidman/Being the Ricardos

2) Lady Gaga/House of Gucci

3) Olivia Colman/The Lost Daughter

4) Jessica Chastain/The Eyes of Tammy Faye

5) Jennifer Hudson/Respect

Alternates: Kristen Stewart/Spencer and Alana Haim/Licorice Pizza 

BEST ACTOR 

1) Will Smith/King Richard

2) Benedict Cumberbatch/The Power of the Dog

3) Andrew Garfield/tick, tick...BOOM

4) Denzel Washington/The Tragedy of Macbeth

5) Leonardo DiCaprio/Don't Look Up

Alternates: Javier Bardem/Being the Ricardos and Peter Dinklage/Cyrano

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS 

1) Ariana DeBose/West Side Story

2) Caitriona Balfe/Belfast

3) Kirsten Dunst/The Power of the Dog

4) Aunjanue Ellis/King Richard

5) Cate Blanchett/Nightmare Alley

Alternates: Ruth Negga/Passing and Anne Dowd/Mass

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Kodi Smit-McPhee/The Power of the Dog

2) Troy Kotsur/CODA

3) Ciaran Hinds/Belfast

4) Bradley Cooper/Licorice Pizza

5) Jared Leto/House of Gucci

Alternates: Ben Affleck/The Tender Bar and Jamie Dornan/Belfast

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY 

1) Belfast 

2) Licorice Pizza 

3) Don't Look Up 

4) King Richard 

5) Being the Ricardos 

Alternates: Parallel Mothers and The French Dispatch

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 

1) The Power of the Dog 

2) The Lost Daughter

3) West Side Story

4) CODA 

5) Drive My Car 

Alternates: Dune and The Tragedy of Macbeth

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE 

1) Drive My Car/Japan 

2) The Worst Person in the World/Norway 

3) The Hand of God/Italy 

4) A Hero/Iran 

5) Flee/Denmark 

Alternates: Compartment #6/Finland and I'm Your Man/Germany

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE 

1) Encanto 

2) The Mitchells vs. the Machines 

3) Flee 

4) Luca 

5) Raya and the Last Dragon 

Alternates: Belle and Sing 2

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) Flee

2) Summer of Soul

3) The Rescue

4) Ascension

5) Procession

Alternates: Attica and The First Wave 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Dune

2) The Power of the Dog

3) The Tragedy of Macbeth

4) Belfast

5) Nightmare Alley

Alternates: West Side Story and No Time to Die 

BEST EDITING

1) Dune

2) Belfast

3) The Power of the Dog

4) Don't Look Up

5) Licorice Pizza

Alternates: No Time to Die and West Side Story 

         

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN 

1) Dune 

2) Nightmare Alley 

3) West Side Story

4) Belfast 

5) The French Dispatch 

Alternates: The Tragedy of Macbeth and Cruella

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE 

1) Dune 

2) The Power of the Dog 

3) The French Dispatch 

4) Don't Look Up

5) Encanto 

Alternates: Parallel Mothers and Spencer

BEST ORIGINAL SONG 

1) No Time to Die/No Time to Die 

2) Be Alive/King Richard 

3) Dos Oruguitas/Encanto 

4) Just Look Up/Don't Look Up

5) Down to Joy/Belfast 

Alternates: Guns Go Bang/The Harder They Fall and Here I Am/Respect

BEST COSTUMES 

1) Cruella

2) Dune 

3) West Side Story 

4) Nightmare Alley 

5) House of Gucci 

Alternates: Cyrano and Spencer

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Dune 

2) Spiderman: No Way Home 

3) The Matrix Resurrections 

4) No Time to Die 

5) Shang Chi and The Legend of the Ten Rings 

Alternates: Godzilla vs. King Kong and Free Guy

SOUND

1) Dune 

2) West Side Story

3) No Time to Die 

4) Spiderman: No Way Home 

5) The Power of the Dog 

Alternates: The Matrix Resurrections and Belfast

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Dune 

2) Cruella 

3) House of Gucci 

4) The Eyes of Tammy Faye 

5) Coming 2 America  

Alternates: No Time to Die and West Side Story

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) The Queen of Basketball

2) Terror Contagion

3) When We Were Bullies

4) Days of Rage

5) Coded: The Hidden Loves of J.C. Leyendecker

Alternates: Camp Confidential: America's Secret Nazis and Three Songs for Benazir

ANIMATED SHORT

1) Us Again

2) Robin Robin

3) Namoo

4) Bestia

5) The Windshield Wiper

Alternates: The Musician and Step into the River

LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) The Long Goodbye

2) When the Sun Sets

3) Censor of Dreams

4) Frimas

5) Please Hold

Alternates: Ala Kachuu: Take and Run and Under the Heavens

THOUGHTS:

I have Dune and The Power of the Dog both getting 10 nominations  followed by:

Belfast-9

West Side Story-7

Don't Look Up-6

Licorice Pizza and King Richard -5

Nightmare Alley and House of Gucci-4

CODA, Being the Ricardos, No Time to Die, Encanto and Flee-3

tick, tick...BOOM, Drive My Car, The Lost Daughter, The Tragedy of Macbeth, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The French Dispatch, Cruella and Spiderman: No Way Home-2

All other films making the list with a single nomination.

Nightmare Alley and House of Gucci are predicted to have the most nominations without a Best Picture nomination.  However, if Blanchett does land in Supporting Actress and Nightmare picks up a not necessarily out-of-the question Adapted Screenplay nomination...who knows?  I'm rooting for that to happen.

Eleven TFF #48 films should earn at least one nomination and the TFF #48 total predicted nominations stands at 36.

TIGHT SPOTS:

Best Picture: Ay Ay AY!  Seems to me that eight or maybe even nine spots are likely decided but that last couple...yeesh.  Included in the scrum: Being the Ricardos, Nightmare Alley, tick, tick...BOOM, No Time to Die, Drive My Car, The Lost Daughter, House of Gucci, The Tragedy of Macbeth and maybe even Spiderman: No Way Home-though that bubble has lost some air over the last week or so.

Director: Campion, Branagh, PTA and Villenueve look good.  Speilberg and Hamaguchi are slugging it out for the fifth spot.

Actress: Kidman, Gaga and Colman seem solid.  Then it's ugly tight between Chastain, Hudson, Stewart (who fell so far so fast), Haim and Cruz.

Actor: Smith, Cumberbatch, Garfield and Washington are in good shape.  Last spot is a tug-of-war between DiCaprio, Bardem and Dinklage.

Supporting Actress: It already seems like DeBose has the statue in hand.  Dunst and Balfe seem safe for a nom.  Ellis, Blanchett and Negga are bunched tightly.

Supporting Actor: Smit-McPhee and Kotsur are good to go.  Hinds should have been a lock but missing the BAFTA nom last week makes him vulnerable.  Cooper has come on strong of late.  Last spot probably goes to Leto but there are strong challenges from Affleck, Dornan and a surging Plemons.

Original Screenplay: The top five here seem to be in good shape.

Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog and The Lost Daughter seem locked than it gets brutal with CODA, Drive My Car, West Side Story, Dune, The Tragedy of Macbeth and Nightmare Alley all battling to get one of the last three spots.

FINAL OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICITONS FROM THE EXPERTS:

Clayton Davis/Variety

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Anne Thonpson/Indiewire

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Andrew Carden/The Awards Connection

Vanity Fair

Joey Magidson/Awards Radar

Matt Neglia/Next Best Picture 

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch

Kyle Buchanan/The New York Times

Nathaniel Rogers/The Film Experience

Mark Johnson/Good as Gold

Gregory Ellwood/The Playlist

Gold Derby

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

MTFB Oscar Update: Screenplays and More / BAFTA Nominations Announced

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SCREENPLAYS AND MORE

Here are the latest nomination predictions for these five categories.  These were last predicted on Jan. 20th.  TFF #48 films are indicated in Bold.  The film's previous ranking is indicated to the right in parentheses.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Belfast (1)

2) Licorice Pizza (2)

3) Don't Look Up (3)

4) King Richard (4)

5) Being the Ricardos (5)

Alternates: Parallel Mothers and The French Dispatch

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) The Power of the Dog (1)

2) The Lost Daughter (2)

3) West Side Story (4)

4) CODA (3)

5) Drive My Car (5)

Alternates: Dune and The Tragedy of Macbeth

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Dune (1)

2) Spiderman: No Way Home (2)

3) The Matrix Resurrections (4)

4) No Time to Die (3)

5) Shang Chi and The Legend of the Ten Rings (5)

Alternates: Godzilla vs. King Kong and Free Guy

SOUND

1) Dune (1)

2) West Side Story (2)

3) No Time to Die (3)

4) Spiderman: No Way Home (5)

5) The Power of the Dog (Alt.)

Alternates: The Matrix Resurrections and Belfast

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Dune (1)

2) Cruella (2)

3) House of Gucci (3)

4) The Eyes of Tammy Faye (4)

5) Coming 2 America (5) 

Alternates: No Time to Die and West Side Story

My final nomination predictions for all categories will be up Monday and I will have a special post on Tuesday after the Oscar nominations are announced.

BAFTA NOMINATIONS ANNOUNCED

The British Association of Film and Television Arts announced their nominees today.  It's the last major "precursor" prior to Tuesday morning's Oscar announcement.  An astonishing 13 films from TFF #48 and one form TFF #47 were nominated for at least one BAFTA award this morning.  The Power of the Dog had the second most nominations overall with eight (Dune led all films with 11) and was the most nominated Telluride film.  Here's the rundown of what/who was nominated that played at The SHOW:

The Power of the Dog-8- Best Film, Direction (Campion), Actor (Cumberbatch), Supporting Actor (Smit-McPhee), Supporting Actor (Plemons), Adapted Screenplay, Score and Cinematography.

Belfast-6- Best Film, Best British Film, Supporting Actress (Balfe), Supporting Actor (Hinds), Original Screenplay, Editing.

Cyrano-4- Best British Film, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup/Hair

King Richard-4- Actor (Smith), Supporting Actress (Ellis), Original Screenplay and Casting.

The French Dispatch-3- Score, Production Design and Casting.

Almost Love (from TFF #47)-3- Best British Film, Debut (Khan) Direction (Khan)

The Lost Daughter-2- Original Screenplay and Supporting Actress (Buckley).

Flee-2- Best Film Not in the English Language and Best Animated Film.

Hand of God-2- Best Film Not in the English Language and Casting.

C'mon C'mon-1-Supporting Actor (Norman).

Petit Maman-1- Best Film Not in the English Language.

Becoming Cousteau-1- Documentary.

Cow-1- Documentary.

The Rescue-1- Documentary.

The complete listing of BAFTA nominees is linked here from Variety.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays