Monday, February 29, 2016

And The Oscar Went To...

Good Post Oscar Monday peeps!

AND THE OSCAR WENT TO...



Here are your results from last night's presentation of the 88th Academy Awards (Telluride #42 films are in Bold):


Animated Short: Bear Story

Documentary Short: The Girl in the River

Live Action Short: Stutterer

Sound Editing: Mad Max: Fury Road

Sound Mixing: Mad Max:Fury Road

Makeup/Hair: Mad Max; Fury Road

Costumes: Mad Max: Fury Road

Production Design: Mad Max: Fury Road

Visual Effects: Ex Machina

Original Song: Writings on the Wall/Spectre

Original Score: The Hateful Eight

Cinematography: The Revenant

Film Editing: Mad Max: Fury Road

Documentary Feature: Amy

Animated Feature: Inside Out



Foreign Language Film: Son of Saul

Original Screenplay: Spotlight

Adapted Screenplay: The Big Short

Supporting Actor: Mark Rylance

Supporting Actress; Alicia Vikander/The Danish Girl

Lead Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio/The Revenant

Lead Actress: Brie Larson/Room

Direction; Alejandro Inarritu/The Revenant



Best Picture: Spotlight 



Telluride 2015 Films with wins:

Oscar totals:

The Revenant wins  three Oscars

Mad Max:Fury Road wins six Oscars.

Spotlight won two Oscars.

The FAC goes   15/24 in its Oscar picks for 63 %.  The FAC did have the actual winners in seven of its misses as possible spoilers.

Telluride #42 films won four Oscars:  Spotlight two, Son of Saul and Room (Brie Larson/Best Actress) one apiece.

The Telluride streakof the first North American screening of the eventual Best Picture winner continues :

2008-Slumdog Millionaire
2010- The King's Speech
2011-The Artist
2012- Argo
2013- 12 Years a Slave
2014- Birdman
2015- Spotlight

Six straight years and seven of the last eight.

Biggest surprise of the night was the Ex Machina win for Visual Effects.

More coverage and a turning of the page coming on Thursday's post from Michael's Telluride Film Blog...What will we see in the San Juans this Labor Day?

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Friday, February 26, 2016

Final Oscar Predictions from the Experts Updated: Stone, Tapley, Feinberg, Davis, Gurus of Gold, Gold Derby and MORE

FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS FROM THE EXPERTS UPDATED: FEINBERG, TAPLEY, STONE, GURUS OF GOLD, GOLD DERBY AND MORE



Here are links to some of the best in the Oscar prognostication business and their final picks for what will happen on Sunday night.  I'll up date these predictions as a standalone post through the weekend...so keep checking back for the latest links.

Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention:

http://variety.com/2016/film/in-contention/oscar-predictions-winners-1201710084/

Pete Hammond/Deadline.com:

http://deadline.com/2016/02/oscars-2016-winners-predictions-academy-awards-handicap-1201701700/


Dave Karger/Fandango:

http://www.fandango.com/features/winning-your-2016-oscar-pool/


Metacritic:



Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood/Indiewire


Nathaniel Rogers/The Film Experience:


HitFix:


Gold Derby:


Hollywood News:

http://www.hollywoodnews.com/2016/02/26/a-final-set-of-oscar-predictions/


Check back here at MTFB/FAC for Oscar prediction updates from the experts through the weekend and a first look at Oscar results in Monday's post.





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Thursday, February 25, 2016

The (Probably) Final Film Awards Clearinghouse Oscar Predictions / Oscar Odds and Ends / Final (?) Oscar Predictions from the Experts

Good morning America; how are you?

THE (PROBABLY) FINAL FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE OSCAR PREDICTIONS



Barring something really unusal happening between now and Sunday night, this is the best assessment that The FAC has about all 24 Oscar categories and what is likely to be announced by The Academy as the Best of film from 2015.

As always...

For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood/Indiewire


TFF #42 films are in Bold.


Live Action Short:
Winner: Shok
Spoiler(s) Day One, Stutterer or Ave Maria 

Documentary Short Subject:
Winner: Claude Lanzman: Spectres of The Shoah
Spoiler(s): Either Body Team 12 or Chau, Beyond the Lines

Animated Short:
Winner: World of Tomorrow
Spoiler(s): Sanjay's Super Team or Bear Story

Sound Editing:
Winner: The Revenant
Spoiler: Mad Max: Fury Road

Sound Mixing:
Winner: The Revenant
Spoiler: Mad Max: Fury Road

Visual Effects:
Winner: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Spoilers: The Revenant or Mad Max: Fury Road

Makeup/Hair:
Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road
Spoiler: The Revenant


Costumes:
Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road
Spoiler: Carol

Production Design:
Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road
Spoiler: The Revenant

Original Song:
Winner: Til It Happens to You/The Hunting Ground
Spoiler: Writings on the Wall/Spectre

Original Score:
Winner: The Hateful Eight
Spoiler: Star Wars; The Force Awakens

Cinematography:
Winner: The Revenant
Spoiler: Mad Max; Fury Road

Film Editing:
Winner:Mad Max: Fury Road
Spoiler: The Big Short

Documentary Feature:
Winner: Amy
Spoiler: Cartel Land

Animated Feature:
Winner: Inside Out
Spoiler: Anomalisa


Foreign Language Feature:
Winner: Son of Saul
Spoiler: Mustang


Original Screenplay:
Winner: Spotlight
Spoiler: Inside Out

 Adapted Screenplay:
Winner: The Big Short
Spoiler: Room

 Supporting Actor:
Winner: Sylvester Stallone/Creed
Spolier(s): Christian Bale/The Big Short or Mark Rylance/Bridge of Spies

 Supporting Actress:
Winner: Alicia Vikander/The Danish Girl
Spoiler: Rooney Mara/Carol

 Lead Actor:
Winner: Leonardo DiCaprio/The Revenant
Spoiler: Bryan Cranston/Trumbo


Lead Actress:
Winner: Brie Larson/Room
Spoiler: Saorise Ronan/Brooklyn

 Director:
Winner: Alejandro Inarritu/The Revenant
Spoiler: Adam McKay/The Big Short

 Best Picture:
Winner: The Revenant
Spoiler(s): Either Spotlight or The Big Short


OSCAR ODDS AND ENDS



The likeliest categories for surprises (and the ones that will probably determine your office pool or your Gold Derby or Awards Daily Oscar contests) are: the three shorts categories, sound editing and mixing, production design, costumes, film editing, and Best Picture.

If The FAC is 100% accurate...

The night's big winner, and I do mean BIG,  will Alejandro Inarritu's The Revenant, which The FAC is currently predicting as the winner of six Oscars: Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Cinematography, Direction, Lead Actor and Best Picture.  

The ONLY other film that is predicted for multiple Oscars is Mad Max: Fury Road with four: Best Film Editing, Production Design, Costumes and Makeup/Hair.

All other winners look like they will be taking home single statues.

TFF #42 films will account for three Oscars for Spotlight's original screenplay, Son of Saul as Foreign Language Film and Brie Larson winning Best Actress for Room.  Telluride could have films that play the spoiler in six other categories with the most likely spoilers being Sanjay's Super Team as Animated Short and Spotlight as Best Picture.

The FAC historical accuracy record is 76%.  I've been crunching numbers since the 2010 Oscars but The FAC has gotten better over time.  The accuracy rate for the past two years has been 88%.

Here's the year by year rate since I started:

2010: 14/24
2011: 17/24
2012: 18/24
2013: 18/24
2014: 22/24
2015: 20/24

As weird as this season has been, I wouldn't be surprised if The FAC reverted back to an 18/24 correct prediction rate on Sunday night.

FOLLOW MTFB/FAC ON TWITTER @Gort2 FOR LIVE OSCAR UPDATES AND VARIOUS COMMENTARY ON SUNDAY NIGHT.



FINAL(?) OSCAR PREDICTIONS FROM THE EXPERTS



Here are links to some of the best in the Oscar prognostication business and their final picks for what will happen on Sunday night.  I'll up date these predictions as a standalone post through the weekend...so keep checking back for the latest links.

Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention:

http://variety.com/2016/film/in-contention/oscar-predictions-winners-1201710084/

Pete Hammond/Deadline.com:

http://deadline.com/2016/02/oscars-2016-winners-predictions-academy-awards-handicap-1201701700/


Dave Karger/Fandango:

http://www.fandango.com/features/winning-your-2016-oscar-pool/


Gurus of Gold/Movie City News:

http://moviecitynews.com/2016/02/gurus-o-gold-our-best-guess-our-final-guess/


Check back here at MTFB/FAC for Oscar prediction updates from the experts through the weekend and a first look at Oscar results in Monday's post.






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Monday, February 22, 2016

The FAC Looks at the More Obscure Oscar Categories / Feinberg Forecast Update / Spotlight In Depth

It's Monday of Oscar week...


THE FAC LOOKS AT THE MORE OBSCURE OSCAR CATEGORIES



These eight categories are where serious Oscar prognosticators are separated from the mere hobbyists.  Categories like Sound Editing and Best Live Action Short really separate the wheat from the chaff in Oscar predicting world.

So here it is.  The FAC assessment of the lesser known Oscar categories.

For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood/Indiewire


TFF #42 films are in Bold.
BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

 1) Mad Max: Fury Road
2) The Revenant
3) The 100 Year Old Man Who...

 Comment:

 The FAC has Mad Max:Fury Road as a solid but not prohibitive favorite.
COSTUMES


1) Mad Max: Fury Road
2) Carol
3) The Danish Girl
4) Cinderella
5) The Revenant

 Comment:Max's lead is substantial but not insurmountable.  Carol could surprise.
SOUND EDITING

 1) The Revenant
2) Mad Max: Fury Road
3) Star Wars: The Force Awakens
4) The Martian
5) Sicario

 SOUND MIXING

1) The Revenant
2) Mad Max:Fury Road
3) Star Wars: The Force Awakens
4) The Martian
5) Bridge of Spies

Comment on the Sound categories:  In both cases, The Revenant lead is good but Mad Max is close enough in both categories to keep it interesting.

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Star Wars; The Force Awakens
2) The Revenant
3) Mad Max:Fury Road
4) The Martian
5) Ex Machina

Comment:  This is one of the closer categories in the entire list of 24 Oscar categories.  Star Wars is out front bu either The Revenant or Mad Max could win the trophy.


And now for the categories that really can make or break your Oscar office pool...The Shorts!


LIVE ACTION SHORT


1) Shok
2) Ave Maria
3) Day One
4) Stutterer
5) Everything Will Be Okay

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) Claude Lanzman: Spectres of the Shoah
2) Body Team 12
3) Chau, Beyond the Lines
4) Last Day of Freedom
5) A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness


ANIMATED SHORT

1) World of Tomorrow
2) Sanjay's Super Team
3) Bear Story
4) We Can't Live Without Cosmos
5) Prologue


Comments about the Short categories:  Live Action: Shok's lead is strong but any of the next three films could pick up the prize.  Doc Short: Close battle between the top three.  Animated Short: Also a close fight between the top three.


 THURSDAY'S POST WILL INCLUDE THE FINAL FAC FOR ALL 24 OSCAR CATEGORIES...


FEINBERG FORECAST UPDATE


One of the sources that I use for The Film Awards Clearinghouse analysis of the Oscar race is The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg.  Scott updated hos latest forecast for Oscar winners on Friday and you can check those here:

SPOTLIGHT IN DEPTH


Spotlight trailer via YouTube
Over the past few days I have collected a number of articles, profiles, interviews and posts about TFF #42 and six time Oscar nominated film Spotlight.  Those are all linked below:

 http://www.ew.com/article/2016/02/18/spotlight-mark-ruffalo-dvd
More on Thursday...



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Thursday, February 18, 2016

Gold Derby Shows The Revenant's Rise / Deep Dive with the Men of Spotlight / Carol's Ed Lachman

Good Thursday World...


GOLD DERBY SHOWS THE REVENANT'S RISE



In the wake of The Revenant's wins at last weekend's BAFTA awards, the expert Oscar predictors that are surveyed by Gold Derby have shifted their view and have now made Alejandro Inarritu's The Revenant as a substantial favorite.

16 over the 25 experts surveyed by the Gold derby crew are currently picking The Revenant putting it over the 50% mark and giving it (according to Gold Derby) odds of 5/6 to win.  Spotlight sits at second with 6 experts still picking it.  Its odds are listed at 10/3.  The only other film that earned any #1 votes is The Big Short.

Check the complete Gold Derby Best Picture picture here:

http://www.goldderby.com/stats/experts/oscars-2015/best-picture.html


http://www.goldderby.com/awardshows/experts/oscars-2015/best-picture.html



DEEP DIVE WITH THE MEN OF SPOTLIGHT



The Wrap recently posted video interviews with both Michael Keaton and Oscar nominated Mark Ruffalo from Spotlight.  Find both interviews here:


http://www.thewrap.com/spotlight-star-michael-keaton-talks-actors-journalists-and-their-egos/

 http://www.thewrap.com/how-mark-ruffalo-learned-to-play-an-excitable-journalist-in-spotlight-video/



CAROL'S ED LACHMAN




Jazz Tangcay, writing for Awards Daily takes in depth look at the work of cinematographer Ed Lachman who is nominated for Best Cinematography for Todd Haynes Carol.  Lachman talks at length about Carol and the how and why about a number of shots from the film.  The link is here:


http://www.awardsdaily.com/2016/02/16/through-the-lens-carol/



More to come Monday...including a look at the more obscure Oscar categories...





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Monday, February 15, 2016

The Latest FAC for Major Oscar Categories / BAFTA Results and a Few Thoughts / WGA Rewards Spotlight and The Big Short

Good Monday everyone...welcome to another post on Michael's Telluride Film Blog/The Film Awards Clearinghouse.


THE LATEST FAC FOR MAJOR OSCAR CATEGORIES



For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood/Indiewire


TFF #42 films are in Bold.


BEST PICTURE


1) The Big Short (1)
2) The Revenant (3)
3) Spotlight (2)
4) Mad Max: Fury Road (4)
5) The Martian (5)
6) Room (6)
7) Bridge of Spies (7)
8) Brooklyn (8)

Comment: The Revenant's and Alejandro Inarritu's DGA win has shuffled the top of the deck slightly.  Spotlight slips from #2 to #3 and The Revenant moves up to that #2 spot.   The top three films are bunched within a two point window in The FAC metric so the Best Picture race is still wide, wide open.

It will interesting to see if last night's BAFTA announcement changes the field further.  


BEST DIRECTOR

1) Alejandro Inarritu/The Revenant (1)
2) Adam McKay/The Big Short (2)
3) George Miller/Mad Max: Fury Road (4)
4) Tom McCarthy/Spotlight (3)
5) Lenny Abrahamson/Room (5)



Comment:  McCarthy and Miller trade places signalling a weakening among The FAC pundits in their feeling that Spotlight is waning, however slightly, in the Best Picture race. 


BEST ACTRESS

1) Brie Larson/Room (1)
2) Saorise Ronan/Brooklyn (2)
3) Cate Blanchett/Carol (4)
4) Charlotte Rampling/45 Years (3)
5) Jennifer Lawrence/Joy

Comment: Larson has solidified her hold on the lead here.  Slight shift below her as Blanchett and Rampling switch the #3 and #4 positions.


BEST ACTOR



1) Leonardo DiCaprio/The Revenant (1)
2) Bryan Cranston/Trumbo
3) Michael Fassbender /Steve Jobs (3)
4) Matt Damon/The Martian (4)
5) Eddie Redmayne/The Danish Girl (5)

Comment: It's Leo all the way here.  The category remains static from the last FAC post.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Alicia Vikander/The Danish Girl (1)
2) Rooney Mara/Carol (2)
3) Kate Winslet/Steve Jobs (3)
4) Jennifer Jason Leigh/The Hateful Eight (4)
5) Rachel McAdams/Spotlight (5)

Comment: Another category that's frozen with these nominees in the same positions as the last FAC.  Vikander is away out front.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1)  Sylvester Stallone/Creed (1)
2) Christian Bale/The Big Short (4)
3) Mark Ruffalo/Spotlight (2)
4) Mark Rylance/Bridge of Spies (3)
5) Tom Hardy/The Revenant (5)

Comment:  Stallone is the odds on favorite.  Bale's ascendance could signal a rise in The Big Short's fortunes and the subsequent drop for Mark Ruffalo might be another signal that Spotlight might be waning.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) The Big Short (1)
2) Room (2)
3) The Martian (5)
4) Carol (3)
5) Brooklyn (4)

Comment: Last weekend's WGA win for The Big Short only solidifies its status as the very likely winner for this category on Oscar night.


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY



1) Spotlight (1)
2) Inside Out (2)
3) Ex Machina (3)
4) Straight Outta Compton (4)
5) Bridge of Spies (5)

Comment: Spotlight won the WGA and is the prohibitive favorite here.


BAFTA RESULTS AND A FEW THOUGHTS



Alejandro Inarritu's western revenge/survival dram The Revenant won the British version of the Oscar last night for Best Picture.  Inarritu also won as did star Leonardo DiCaprio.  The film also won honors for cinematography (Emmanuel Lubezki also won the American Society of Cinematographers Award for Best Cinematography last night...making him likely to win an unprecedented third straight Oscar) and  Best Sound.

In addition to DiCaprio, Brie Larson won Best Actress for Room, Kate Winslet was named Best Supporting Actress for Steve Jobs and Mark Rylance as Best Supporting Actor for Bridge of Spies.

Other winners last night included Screenplay wins for Spotlight and The Big Short.  Mad Max; Fury Road won four tech awards for editing, costumes, makeup and production design.

Complete results are here:

http://variety.com/2016/film/news/bafta-awards-winners-2016-complete-list-british-academy-film-television-1201706004/

The Revenant's win on top of its win with the DGA most likely signals that it is the front runner for the Best Picture Oscar in less than two weeks time.  That said, analysis from Oscar pros Scott Feinberg of The Hollywood Reporter and Kristopher Tapley of Variety's InContention say.."not so fast".

Both analysts suggest that The Revenant is the likely favorite but they also point out that this season has been anything but predictable and that the BAFTA last year rewarded Richard Linklater's Boyhood.  So, they both say, the race may still not be over andwe could still have a surprise or two on Feb. 28.

Check out their analysis here:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/bafta-awards-revenant-wins-dont-865269

 http://variety.com/2016/film/in-contention/the-revenant-key-bafta-awards-analysis-1201706167/

One final note: Telluride films won Best Actress-Brie Larson/Room, Best Supporting Actress-Kate Winslet/Steve Jobs, Original Screenplay-Spotlight and Non-English Language Film-Wild Tales.

WGA REWARDS SPOTLIGHT AND THE BIG SHORT




The Writers Guild of America named their award winners for 2015 on Saturday with TFF #42 film Spotlight named Best Original Screenplay and The Big Short winning Best Adapted Screenplay. Those wins are expected to be repeated on Oscar night in a couple of weeks.

I have linked WGA coverage here:









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Thursday, February 11, 2016

Oscar Experts Update / Future Telluride? More Payne / Morris Off the Hook

Good Thursday Everyone...


OSCAR EXPERTS UPDATE



As Oscar Night continues to get closer, here's a snapshot of where a number of Oscar experts think the Best Picture race (and others) are right now.  I've linked a number of charts and podcasts from Gold Derby as well as the latest updated predictions form Kristopher Tapley of InContention at Variety.


http://www.goldderby.com/news/11694/oscar-predictions-best-picture-the-revenant-spotlight-the-big-short-13579086.html

 http://www.goldderby.com/awardshows/experts/oscars-2015/best-picture.html

 http://www.goldderby.com/news/11700/oscar-predictions-revenant-entertainment-381674925-story.html

 http://variety.com/2015/film/in-contention/oscar-predictions-oscars-academy-awards-1201600870/

The British Academy of Film and Television Arts announce their winners this weekend and that will be the next nugget of precursor information.



FUTURE TELLURIDE? MORE PAYNE



I have reported here previously that Telluride regular Alexander Payne was producing Wilson and that his next directing effort will be Downsizing with Matt Damon.  Both of those films could figure into future Telluride film lineups.  Noe comes word of another directing job that Payne will undertake for the same producers that were behind his Nebraska and Election.

The film is tentatively titled My Saga.  Reports are linked below:

http://www.thewrap.com/alexander-payne-to-direct-karl-ove-knausgaard-my-saga-for-nebraska-producers/

 http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/alexander-payne-to-direct-road-trip-flick-my-saga-20160209

 http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/bona-fide-acquires-movie-rights-to-knausgaard-new-york-times-series-my-saga-for-alexander-payne-exclusive-20160209


MORRIS OFF THE HOOK



A few weeks ago I posted a story that Errol Morris was being sued by the subject of his 2010 documentary Tabloid.  Word this week is that the suit has been dismissed.  Here are the details from The Hollywood Reporter:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/thr-esq/hollywood-docket-errol-morris-steven-863043



That'll do for Thursday.  A new FAC Oscar update will be coming your way on Monday.


Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to


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Monday, February 8, 2016

Nobody Knows Anything...Still

Good Monday Friends and Neighbors...


NOBODY KNOWS ANYTHING...STILL





Nearly two months ago I wrote a post here that recalled screenwriter William Goldman's dictum about Hollywood "Nobody knows anything" and applied it to the absolute uncertainty that existed at that time about the Oscar race.

Seven plus weeks down the road, and that uncertainty has only intensified.  Oh sure, we think we've figured out a lot of categories.  All four acting categories can probably be predicted: DiCaprio, Larson, Stallone, Vikander.  Screenplays likely are going to be rewarded for Spotlight and The Big Short.  Inside Out, Son of Saul and Amy look like near locks in the non-narrative feature categories.

But Best Picture...yeesh...

If you thought the DGA Award announcement on Saturday night was going to give us a definitive guidepost, you were wrong.  Alejandro Inarritu won the DGA for a history making second straight year (for The Revenant).  That win denied the DGA to either Adam McKay/The Big Short or Tom McCarthy/Spotlight which would have likely tipped Oscar pundits in their direction.

The Big Short had taken the catbird seat for a number of people after being named winner of the Producers Guild Award for Outstanding film and then last week's Screen Actors Guild Ensemble Award for Spotlight caused everyone to pause.  Now, with the DGA going to Inarritu, it's even more difficult to parse what the winner is likely to be in three weeks.

Following the DGA announcement on Twitter (late) Saturday night, the Oscarologists I follow most closely (Sasha Stone/Awards Daily, Kris Tapley/Variety-InContention)  seemed to initially feel that The Big Short might still have the inside track and that the DGA win may well translate to a second straight Oscar for Inarritu and another year where the Academy splits the Best Picture/Best Director prizes...which has not been the normal pattern.

The other Oscarologist that I really focus on, The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg, hasn't gone on record yet as to his thoughts about the latest twist in this year's race.

Anne Thompson of Thompson on Hollywood was tweeting last night that she thought the Best Picture race now came down to Spotlight and The Big Short despite the Inarritu win at the DGA.


It's likely to win actor/cinematography and maybe director. Spotlight or Big Short takes BP. Miller could still win director


Hollywood Elsewhere's Jeff Wells thinks it's down to a Spotlight vs. Revenant race:

http://www.hollywood-elsewhere.com/2016/02/the-big-short-is-finished-inarritus-dga-win-signifies-revenant-vs-spotlight-showdown/

The bottom line is that we're down to the last three weeks before Oscar and in a normal year we'd have a pretty good idea what Best Picture was going to be.  This year...nobody knows anything.

Personally, I still think Spotlight wins on Oscar night but I wouldn't bet actual money on it.  Full disclosure, though, is that I want it to win so my perception is almost certainly warped by that.


Here's DGA coverage from the weekend:


http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lists/2016-dga-winners-complete-list-856953/item/feature-film-dga-2016-nominees-856994

 http://www.awardsdaily.com/2016/02/07/the-state-of-the-race-and-then-there-were-three-2/

 http://www.awardsdaily.com/2016/02/06/dga-awards-announcing-tba/

 http://variety.com/2016/film/in-contention/alejandro-g-inarritus-revenant-dga-win-keeps-oscar-guessing-game-going-1201699312/

 http://deadline.com/2016/02/dga-award-winners-2016-full-list-directors-guild-1201697771/

http://deadline.com/2016/02/dga-awards-the-revenant-alejandro-inarritu-leonardo-dicaprio-winners-oscars-1201697938/

 http://www.awardscircuit.com/2016/02/07/102448/


Come back for more on Thursday!

Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to


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Thursday, February 4, 2016

The FAC for Eight More Oscar Categories / The SAG and Best Picture / Gold Derby Experts on Oscar and DGA

Good Thursday to All...

We're a little more than three weeks away from Oscar night (Feb. 28th).  Ballots for the final voting go out to the AMPAS membership on Feb. 12 and the voting closes on Feb. 23.

Coming up this weekend is the announcement from The Directors Guild.


THE FAC AND EIGHT MORE OSCAR CATEGORIES



Last week, I posted the first FAC for what are regarded as the eight major Oscar categories (Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actress and Actor, and Screenplays).  Today I'm posting the numbers that I ran this week on eight more categories.


For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood/Indiewire

Some of these experts have not yet updated their predictions.  That data has been discounted.


TFF #42 films are in Bold.
ANIMATED FEATURE

 1) Inside Out
2) Anomalisa
3) Shaun the Sheep
4) When Marnie Was Here
5) Boy and the World

 DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

 1) Amy
2) Cartel Land
3) What Happened Miss Simone
4) The Look of Silence
5) Winter on Fire

 FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

 1) Son of Saul
2) Mustang
3) Theeb
4) Embrace of the Serpent
5) A War

 CINEMATOGRAPHY

 1) The Revenant
2) Mad Max:Fury Road
3) Carol
4) Sicario
5) The Hateful Eight

FILM EDITING

1) The Big Short
2) Mad Max: Fury Road
3) The Revenant
4) Star Wars: The Force Awakens
5) Spotlight

ORIGINAL SCORE

1) The Hateful Eight
2) Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3) Carol
4) Bridge of Spies
5) Sicario

ORIGINAL SONG

1) Til It Happens To You/The Hunting Ground
2) Writings on the Wall/Spectre
3) Earned It/50 Shades of Gray
4) Simple Song #3/Youth
5) Manta Ray/Racing Extinction

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Mad Max:Fury Road
2) The Revenant
3) The Martian
4) Bridge of Spies
5) The Danish Girl

 Of the 40 nominations in these eight categories, seven are from Telluride.  Only one seems likely to be a winner and that's Son of Saul in Foreign Language.

Other comments: Prohibitive favorites...Inside Out for Animated Feature, Amy for Documentary, Son of Saul for Foreign Language , The Revenant Cinematography, The Hateful Eight for Original Score, Til It Happens To You for Original Song.  The Big Short is a substantial, though not prohibitive favorite, for Film Editing.  

The most seriously contested category of these eight seems to be Production Design.  Mad Max: Fury Road is on top but that lead appears to be vulnerable.

THE SAG AND BEST PICTURE


A lot has been written the last few days as to what conclusions may or may not be drawn by the Spotlight win for The Screen Actors Guild Best Ensemble Award.  Some commenters suggested that it has buoyed Spotlight's Best Picture Oscar prospects after the loss of the PGA honor went to The Big Short.  Other experts have pointed out that The SAG award hasn't been particularly predictive or influential as it has only matched 10 times in the 20 years that SAG has been giving its Best Ensemble prize.

 I have been thinking that it might be that the SAG award might be more indicative in years when the BP race was perceived to have been close.  That's mostly because the Actors branch of AMPAS is the largest branch.  Actors, consequently, have the largest influence in Oscar voting.  

 Also, it should be noted that, although the SAG has matched only 50% of the time, if we begin counting from the first match of Ensemble and Best Picture, the match has been times in the last 17 years for a bit more respectable rate of 59%.

 So, here are the matches:

 1998: Shakespeare in Love
1999: American Beauty
2002: Chicago
2003: Lord of the Rings: Return of the King
2005: Crash
2007: No Country for Old Men
2008: Slumdog Millionaire
2010: The King's Speech
2012: Argo
2014: Birdman

 So SAG's Ensemble was on top of two big "surprise" years: 1998 (Shakespeare over Saving Private Ryan) and 2005 (Crash over Brokeback Mountain).  It also seemed ahead of the game in what were perceived as close years 2002 (Chicago), 2007 (No Country), 2010 (King's Speech) and 2014 (Birdman).  There are four years of matches that SAG seemed to be going with the overwhelming current: 1999, 2003, 2008 and 2012.

 My perception is that this year is close between Spotlight, Big Short, Revenant and Mad Max.  So, maybe SAG tells us that Spotlight, despite the loss at the PGA, is still a serious possibility to win the big prize.

Will the Directors Guild announcement clear things up this weekend?  It might.  Should McKay (Big Short) or McCarthy (Spotlight) win, it would move one film or the other back to front runner status.  

 However, I am really expecting the trophy to go to George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road) or Alejandro Inarritu (The Revenant) this weekend and actually muddy up the race even more.

 The DGA announces their winners on Saturday.

GOLD DERBY EXPERTS ON OSCAR AND DGA


Pete Hammond of Deadline and Tom O'Neill of Gold Derby went on the record both visually and in podcast form this week to opine about major Oscar races and their thoughts concerning the Directors Guild announcement this week.
Take a look or listen here:

 http://www.goldderby.com/news/11631/oscars-predictions-revenant-spotlight-entertainment-91350486-story.html



That's a wrap for Thursday....Come back for more on Monday...



Come back for more on Thursday!

Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to


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