MTFB Oscar Take: Where We're At / Looks at Jay Kelly

 MTFB OSCAR TAKE: WHERE WE'RE AT

I'm through the second wave of predictions for the 2026 Oscars and the eight " Above the Line" categories.  I'll start expanding the predictions with Thursday's post to eventually include all 24 categories (up from 23 as The Academy has added Best Casting as a new Oscar category for this year).

But before I go into the expanded set of predictions, here's a reminder of where MTFB has nominees predicted currently.  These predictions were posted between Nov. 3rd and Nov. 13th. TFF #52 films/performers are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Hamnet (2)

3) Sinners (3)

4) Sentimental Value (4)

5) Marty Supreme (5)

6) Wicked: For Good (9)

7) It Was Just an Accident (8)

8) Jay Kelly (6)

9) Frankenstein (NR)

10) Bugonia (NR)

Others: Train Dreams, Avatar: Fire and Ice, The Secret Agent and A House of Dynamite.

Comment: Big moves up for Wicked: For Good, Frankenstein and Bugonia. Dropping for Jay Kelly and A House of Dynamite.  

BEST DIRECTION

1) Paul Thomas Anderson/OBAA (1)

2) Chloe Zhao/Hamnet (2)

3) Ryan Coogler/Sinners (3)

4) Joachim Trier/Sentimental Value (4)

5) Jafar Panahi/It Was Just an Accident (5)

Others: Josh Safdie/Marty Supreme, Noah Baumbach/Jay Kelly and Guillermo del Toro/Frankenstein.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Jesse Buckley/Hamnet (1)

2) Rene Reinsve/Sentimental Value (2)

3) Cynthia Enviro/Wicked: For Good (3)

4) Emma Stone/Bugonia (4)

5) Amanda Seyfried/The Testament of Ann Lee (NR)

Others: Kate Hudson/Song Sung Blue, Sidney Sweeney/Christy and Rose Byrne/If I Had Legs I'd Kick You.

1) Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme (2)

2) Leonardo Di Caprio/OBAA (1)

3) Walter Moura/The Secret Agent (3)

4) Ethan Hawke (NR)

5) Michael B. Jordan/Sinners (5)

Others: George Clooney/Jay Kelly, Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere.

SUPPRORTING ACTRESS

1) Teyana Taylor/One Battle After Another (1)

2) Ariana Grande/Wicked: For Good (2)

3) Elle Fanning/Sentimental Value (4)

4) Amy Madigan/Weapons (3)

5) Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas/Sentimental Value (5)

Others: Regina Hall/One Battle After Another, Gwyneth Paltrow/Marty Supreme and Hailee Steinfeld/Sinners.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Stellan Skarsgard/Sentimental Value (1)

2) Sean Penn/One Battle After Another (2)

3) Paul Mescal/Hamnet (3)

4) Adam Sandler/Jay Kelly (4)

5) Benicio del Toro/One Battle After Another (5)

Others: Jacob Elordi/Frankenstein, DelRoy Lindo/Sinners and Jeremy Strong/Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Sinners (1)

2) Sentimental Value (2)

3) Marty Supreme (3)

4) Jay Kelly (4)

5) It Was Just an Accident (5)

Others: A House of Dynamite, Weapon and Blue Moon.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Hamnet (2)

2) One Battle After Another (1)

3) Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (3)

4) Bugonia (4)

5) Train Dreams (5)

Others: Frankenstein, No Other Choice and Wicked: For Good.

COMMENT: Sentimental Value is predicted to earn seven nominations in these eight categories to lead the way.  Here's the breakdown of the 10 films MTFB has with possible Oscar nominations in the Big Eight categories:

Sentimental Value (7): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Reinsve), Supporting Actress (Fanning), Supporting Actress (Ibsdotter Lilleaas), Supporting Actor (Skarsgard), Original Screenplay.

Hamnet (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Buckley), Supporting Actor (Mescal), Adapted Screenplay.

Jay Kelly (3): Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Sandler), Original Screenplay.

Bugonia (3): Best Picture, Actress (Stone) and Adapted Screenplay.

It Was Just an Accident (2): Best Picture, Original Screenplay.

The Secret Agent (1): Best Actor (Moura).

Blue Moon (1): Best Actor (Hawke).

Other "possible" nominations:

Frankenstein: Best Direction, Supporting Actor (Elordi), Adapted Screenplay.

Jay Kelly: Best Direction, Actor (Clooney).

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere: Best Actor (White), Supporting Actor (Strong).

The Secret Agent: Best Picture.

If I Had Legs I's Kick You: Best Actress (Byrne).

Blue Moon: Best Original Screenplay.

Total MTFB predicted nominations from these eight categories for Telluride films: 22

Other "possible" nominations: 10.

LOOKS AT JAY KELLY

With its release coming in less than a month (Dec. 5th),  the P.R. is ramping up for Noah Baumbach's Jay Kelly starring George Clooney, Adam Sandler and Laura Dern.  Here's a taste of some of the promo that's in the air for the film.

Behind the Scenes with Clooney, Sandler and Baumbach from Netflix via YouTube.

Laura Dern and Adam Sandler with Awards Watch via YouTube.

 

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MTFB Oscar Predictions: Screenplays #2 / Critic's Choice Awards and Documentaries

 MTFB OSCAR PREDICTIONS: SCREENPLAYS #2

Today I am concluding my second wave of Oscar predictions for this year with the focus on the Screenplay categories.  All contenders from TFF #52 films are listed in Bold.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Sinners (1)

2) Sentimental Value (2)

3) Marty Supreme (3)

4) Jay Kelly (4)

5) It Was Just an Accident (5)

Others: A House of Dynamite, Weapon and Blue Moon.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Hamnet (2)

2) One Battle After Another (1)

3) Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (3)

4) Bugonia (4)

5) Train Dreams (5)

Others: Frankenstein, No Other Choice and Wicked: For Good.

CRITIC'S CHOICE AWARDS AND DOCUMENTARIES

The Critic's Choice Awards recognized Ken Burns The American Revolution as Best Historical Documentary of the year.  The film tied with Hurricane Katrina: Race Against Time for the honor.  Burns was also named winner of the Critic's Choice Impact Award.

Burns also serves as a member of the TFF Board of Governors.

The American Revolution screened as a part of the 52nd Telluride Film Festival on Friday, Aug. 29th at 10:00am (MDT) at the Sheridan Opera House.

The Perfect Neighbor was named the Best Documentary Feature as well as four other awards to lead the event.

The complete list of all doc winners for The Critic's Choice awards can be found here.

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MTFB Oscar Take Round Two: Supporting Acting / Hamnet Wins Another Audience Award

 MTFB OSCAR TAKE ROUND TWO: SUPPORTING ACTING

Sorry that I'm late this morning.  It was a long weekend.

MTFB continues its up date of  Oscar predictions with the Supporting Acting Categories.  These predictions will include the actors current ranking as well as its position from two weeks back.  TFF #52 films are in Bold.

SUPPRORTING ACTRESS

1) Teyana Taylor/One Battle After Another (1)

2) Ariana Grande/Wicked: For Good (2)

3) Elle Fanning/Sentimental Value (4)

4) Amy Madigan/Weapons (3)

5) Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas/Sentimental Value (5)

Others: Regina Hall/One Battle After Another, Gwyneth Paltrow/Marty Supreme and Hailee Steinfeld/Sinners.

Comment: This category is very stable at the moment.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Stellan Skarsgard/Sentimental Value (1)

2) Sean Penn/One Battle After Another (2)

3) Paul Mescal/Hamnet (3)

4) Adam Sandler/Jay Kelly (4)

5) Benicio del Toro/One Battle After Another (5)

Others: Jacob Elordi/Frankenstein, DelRoy Lindo/Sinners and Jeremy Strong/Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere.

Comment: Also a very stable category with the exception of Jacob Elordi jumping into the #6 spot.

HAMNET WINS ANOTHER AUDIENCE AWARD

Chloe Zhao's Hamnet won the Toronto Film Festival Audience Award in September and last week added that same accolade from the BFI London Film Festival.  Additionally the film tied with Rental Family for the Audience Award the Middleburg Film Fest.

Last week Gold Derby reported that Hamnet had slipped by One Battle After Another to become (by the slimmest of margins) their predicted favorite to win Best Picture.  As of this morning that was still holding true.

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MTFB Oscar Predictions Round Two: Lead Acting/ Gold Derby Has Hamnet in Front / TFF #52 and the British Independent Awards

 MTFB OSCAR PREDICITONS ROUND TWO: LEAD ACTING

MTFB continues its up date of  Oscar predictions with the Lead acting Categories.  These predictions will include the actors current ranking as well as its position from two weeks back.  TFF #52 films are in Bold.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Jesse Buckley/Hamnet (1)

2) Rene Reinsve/Sentimental Value (2)

3) Cynthia Enviro/Wicked: For Good (3)

4) Emma Stone/Bugonia (4)

5) Amanda Seyfried/The Testament of Ann Lee (NR)

Others: Kate Hudson/Song Sung Blue, Sidney Sweeney/Christy and Rose Byrne/If I Had Legs I'd Kick You.

1) Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme (2)

2) Leonardo Di Caprio/OBAA (1)

3) Walter Moura/The Secret Agent (3)

4) Ethan Hawke (NR)

5) Michael B. Jordan/Sinners (5)

Others: George Clooney/Jay Kelly, Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere.

Comment:  At this early point there would be five TFF #52 performances nominated for Best Lead: Buckley, Reinsve, Stone, Moura and Hawke.  Big movers up are Seyfried and Hawke.  Also note Chalamet's rise to number one among the men over DiCaprio.

Next post: Supporting Actors.

GOLD DERBY HAS HAMNET IN FRONT

In a very interesting twist Gold Derby now has Chloe Zhao's Hamnet fractionally ahead of Paul Thomas Anderson's One Battle After Another.  The edition posted yesterday revealed that.  You can see that post linked here.

Additionally Gold Derby has five TFF #52 in the predicted five for Best Picture: Hamnet, Sentimental Value, It was Just an Accident, Frankenstein and Bugonia.  Five BP nominations for films that played Telluride in a single year would establish a new record TFF.

TFF #52 AND THE BRITISH INDEPENDENT FILM AWARDS

Five TFF #52 films were nominated for British Independent Film Awards on Monday.  Henry Lighton's Pillion had the most nominations of any Telluride film with 10.  Harris Dickinson's Urchin had six.  Here's the complete breakdown:

Pillion (10): Best British Independent Film, Best Direction (Lighton), Screenplay (Lighton), Lead Performance (Melling), Supporting Performance (Skarsgard), Debut Director (Lighton), Debut Screenplay (Lighton), Costuming, Editing and Make-up/Hair.

Urchin (6): Best British Independent Film, Best Lead Performance (Millane), Debut Director (Dickinson), Breakthrough Producer (Pearch). Casting, Music Supervision.

Sentimental Value (1): Best International Independent Film.

It Was Just an Accident (1): Best International Independent Film.

H Is for Hawk (1): Best Cinematography.

The complete list of nominees can be found here on the BIFA website.

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Oscar Predictions Round Two: Best Picture and Direction / Visitations: Del Toro, Isaacs, Stone, Plemons

OSCAR PREDICTIONS ROUND TWO: BEST PICTURE AND DIRECTION

Two weeks ago MTFB began Oscar predictions for 2026 with, of course, an emphasis on TFF #52 contenders.  Today we go back and update the predictions for Best Picture and Direction.  These predictions will include the films current ranking as well as its position from two weeks back.  TFF #52 films are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Hamnet (2)

3) Sinners (3)

4) Sentimental Value (4)

5) Marty Supreme (5)

6) Wicked: For Good (9)

7) It Was Just an Accident (8)

8) Jay Kelly (6)

9) Frankenstein (NR)

10) Bugonia (NR)

Others: Train Dreams, Avatar: Fire and Ice, The Secret Agent and A House of Dynamite.

Comment: Big moves up for Wicked: For Good, Frankenstein and Bugonia. Dropping for Jay Kelly and A House of Dynamite.  

Should this list be the actual set of  nominees, TFF would break its record of four BP nominees in a single year with six.

BEST DIRECTION

1) Paul Thomas Anderson/OBAA (1)

2) Chloe Zhao/Hamnet (2)

3) Ryan Coogler/Sinners (3)

4) Joachim Trier/Sentimental Value (4)

5) Jafar Panahi/It Was Just an Accident (5)

Others: Josh Safdie/Marty Supreme, Noah Baumbach/Jay Kelly and Guillermo del Toro/Frankenstein.

VISITATIONS: DEL TORO, ISAAC, STONE, PLEMONS

Guillermo Del Toro and Oscar Isaac for Frankenstein from GQ and YouTube.

Emma Stone, Jesse Plemons, Yorgos Lanthimos and More for Bugonia from Nest Best Picture.

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MTFB Oscar Predictions: Screenplays / TFF #52 Has 24 Gotham Award Nominations / New Trailer for Sentimental Value / Visitations: Bugonia and Ballad of a Small Player

 MTFB OSCAR PREDICTIONS: SCREENPLAYS

Today I am concluding my first wave of Oscar predictions for this year with the focus on the Screenplay categories.  All contenders from TFF #52 films are listed in Bold.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Sinners

2) Sentimental Value

3) Marty Supreme

4) Jay Kelly

5) It Was Just an Accident

Others: A House of Dynamite, The Secret Agent and Weapons.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) One Battle After Another

2) Hamnet

3) Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

4) Bugonia

5) Train Dreams

Others: No Other Choice, Frankenstein and Song Sung Blue.

Currently, if all of MTFB's current predictions came true in the Big Eight categories, 10 TFF #52 films would receive 21 nominations with another 12 nominations possible.  Here's that breakdown by film:

Sentimental Value (6): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Reinsve), Supporting Actress (Fanning), Supporting Actress (Lilleaas), Original Screenplay.

Hamnet (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Buckley), Supporting Actor (Mescal) and Adapted Screenplay.

Jay Kelley (3): Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Sandler) and Original Screenplay.  Three other possibilities: Direction, Actor (Clooney), Supporting Actor (Crudup).

It Was Just an Accident (3): Best Picture, Direction, Original Screenplay.

The Secret Agent (2): Best Picture, Best Actor (Moura).  Two other possibilities: Best Picture and Original Screenplay.

Bugonia (1): Adapted Screenplay.  Two other possibilities: Best Picture and Actor (Plemons)

Springsteen: Deliver me from Nowhere (1): Best Actor (White).  Two other possibilities: Best Picture and Supporting Actor (Strong).

Other films with Oscar possibilities:

If I Had Legs I'd Kick You: Best Actress (Byrne).

Blue Moon: Best Actor (Hawke).

Frankenstein: Adapted Screenplay.

I'll start the first round of updating predictions with next Monday's post.

TFF #52 HAS 24 GOTHAM AWARDS NOMINATIONS

Here's how Gotham Awards nominations went for TFF #52 films.  The big surprise was that If I Had Legs I'd Kick You had the biggest footprint among all 13 TFF #52 films to get a nomination.  TFF #52 films had a combines 24 nominations:

If I Had Legs I'd Kick You (4): Best Feature, Direction, Outstanding Lead Performance (Byrne), Original Screenplay.

It was Just an Accident (3): Best International Feature, Direction, Original Screenplay.

Hamnet (2): Best Feature, Outstanding Lead Performance (Buckley).

Sentimental Value (2): Outstanding Supporting Performance (Lilleaas), Outstanding Supporting Performance (Skarsgard).

The Mastermind (2): Best Direction, Outstanding Lead Performance (O'Connor).

Blue Moon (2): Outstanding Lead Performance (Hawke), Outstanding Supporting Performance (Scott).

The Secret Agent (2): Outstanding Lead Performance (Moura), Original Screenplay.

Pillion (2): Outstanding Supporting Performance (Skarsgard), Adapted Screenplay.

Bugonia (1): Best Feature

Nouvelle Vague (1): Best International Feature.

Frankenstein (1): Outstanding Supporting Performance (Elordi).

Jay Kelly (1): Outstanding Supporting Performance (Sandler).

Urchin (1): Breakthrough Direction.

NEW TRAILER FOR SENTIMENTAL VALUE

VISITATIONS: BUGONIA AND BALLAD OF A SMALL PLAYER

Bugonia: Writer Will Tracy on Bugonia from Awards Radar: 

https://awardsradar.com/2025/10/29/interview-writer-will-tracy-chats-about-working-with-yorgos-lanthimos-and-adapting-bugonia/

Battle of a Small Player:

Colin Farrell and Fila Chen for Ballad of a Small Player from Next Best Picture:

YouTube link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s4f4b0HAG9Q&t=2s

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MTFB Oscar Predictions: Supporting Acting / New Poster for Pillion / Visitations: Scott Cooper

MTFB OSCAR PREDICTIONS: SUPPORTING ACTING

Today I am continuing my first wave of Oscar predictions for this year with the focus on the Supporting Acting categories.  All contenders from TFF #52 films are listed in Bold.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Teyana Taylor/One Battle After Another

2) Ariana Grande/Wicked: For Good

3) Amy Madigan/Weapons

4) Elle Fanning/Sentimental Value

5) Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas/Sentimental Value

Others: Regina Hall/One Battle After Another, Gwyneth Paltrow/Marty Supreme and Jennifer Lopez/Kiss of the Spider Woman.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Stellan Skarsgard/Sentimental Value

2) Sean Penn/One Battle After Another

3) Paul Mescal/Hamnet

4) Adam Sandler/Jay Kelly

5) Benicio del Toro/One Battle After Another

Others: Delroy Lindo/Sinners, Billy Crudup/Jay Kelly and Jeremy Strong/Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere.

NEW POSTER FOR PILLION

Fresh from A24, here's a new poster for Henry Lighton's Pillion:

VISITATIONS

The Next Best Picture Podcast interviews Scott Cooper for Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere.

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Second Set of 2025-26 Oscar Predictions: Lead Acting / New Clip and Posters from Frankenstein / Visitations: Hawke and Berger

SECOND SET OF OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR 2025-26: LEAD ACTING

Today I am continuing my first wave of Oscar predictions for this year with the focus on the Lead Acting categories.  All contenders from TFF #52 films are listed in Bold.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Jesse Buckley/Hamnet

2) Rene Reinsve/Sentimental Value

3) Cynthia Erico/Wicked: For Good

4) Emma Stone/Bugonia

5) Chase Infiniti/OBAA

Other possibles: Amanda Seyfried/The Testament of Ann Lee, Kate Hudson/Song Sung Blue, Rose Byrne/If I Had Legs I'd Kick You.

BEST ACTOR

1) Leonardo Di Caprio/OBAA

2) Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme

3) Walter Moura/The Secret Agent

4) Jeremy Allen White/Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

5) Michael B. Jordan/Sinners

Other possibles: George Clooney/Jay Kelly, Ethan Hawke/Blue Moon, Jesse Plemons/Bugonia.

NEW CLIP AND POSTERS FROM FRANKENSTEIN

The clip from YouTube:

Posters:

VISITATIONS: ETHAN HAWKE AND EDWARD BERGER

Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon from SPC and YouTube.

Edward Berger for Ballad of a Small Player from TIFF and YouTube.

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MTFB'S First Oscar Predictions for 2025-26: Best Picture and Direction / New U.S. Trailer for The Secret Agent / Visitations: Blue Moon

 MTFB'S FIRST OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS FOR 2025-26

Well, we're finally here.  Seven weeks after the conclusion of TFF #52 it's time to start making some predix myself for the coming Oscar Season.  Today we'll roll out Best Picture and Best Direction.  We'll follow up with the Lead Acting categories on Thursday and then next week we'll the Supporting Acting categories and then the Screenplay categories.  We'll keep the focus on these eight "above the Line" categories for a bit before expending to eventually include all categories prior to Oscar nomination morning on January 22, 2026.  

TFF #52 films are Bold.  Here we go...

BEST PICTURE

1) One Battle After Another

2) Hamnet

3) Sinners

4) Sentimental Value

5) Marty Supreme

6) Jay Kelly

7) A House of Dynamite

8) It Was Just an Accident

9) Wicked: For Good

10) The Secret Agent

Other Possibles: Bugonia, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere and Avatar: Fire and Ice.

Should these prove out to be the top ten it would mean half the nominated field for Best Picture played at TFF 52 which would be new record for TFF films to be BP nominated.

BEST DIRECTION

1) Paul Thomas Anderson/One Battle After Another

2) Chloe Zhao/Hamnet

3) Ryan Coogler/Sinners

4) Joachim Trier/Sentimental Value

5) Jafar Pahani/It Was Just an Accident

Other Possibles: Josh Safdie/Marty Supreme, Kleber Mendonca Filho/The Secret Agent, Noah Baumbach/Jay Kelly.

NEW U.S. TRAILER FOR THE SECRET AGENT

NEON has released a new trailer for Kebler Mendonca Filho's The Secret Agent.  Here that is from YouTube:

VISITATIONS: BLUE MOON

Ethan Hawke and Richard Linklater for Blue Moon from Awards Radar.

Bobby Canavale on Blue Moon from Awards Radar.

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Final Look at Oscar Experts Best Picture Predictions: Screen Rant / Best Picture Scoreboard / Interviews from The New York Film Festival (Jay Kelly and Sentimental Value) / Final Trailer for Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

 FINAL LOOK AT OSCAR EXPERTS BEST PICTURE PREDICTIONS: SCREEN RANT

 Here's a last look at what Oscar Experts are predicting for Best Picture,  These come from Screen Rant and were updated last Friday (TFF films are in Bold):

1) Hamnet

2) One Battle After Another

3) Sinners

4) Sentimental Value

5) Marty Supreme

6) A House of Dynamite

7) Wicked: For Good

8) The Secret Agent

9) Avatar: Fire and Ask

10) Jay Kelly

So Screen Rant has four TFF #52 films in the final ten for Best Picture which would tie for the record number of Telluride films nominated for BP in a single.

Stay tuned for my first jump into the prediction pool on Monday with my takes on Best Picture and Direction.

Here's the link to the Screen Rant prediction page.

BEST PICTURE SCORECARD

Let's update our chart of the all of the BP predictions we have gathered so far.  To this point with input from Gold Derby (GD), The Hollywood Reporter (THR), Variety (V),  Awards Watch (AW),  Awards Radar (AR), Next Best Picture (NBP), The Contending (TC) and Screen Rant (SC),  here's where TFF #52 films stand for BP predictions:

Hamnet (8): GD, THR, V, AW, AR, NBP, TC, SR

Sentimental Value (8): GD, THR, V, AW, AR, NBP, TC, SR

Jay Kelly (7): GD, THR, AW, AR, NBP, TC, SR

Bugonia (5): GD, THR, V, AR, TC

It Was Just Accident (5): GD, THR, AW, NBP, TC

The Secret Agent (4): THR, V, NBP, SR

Frankenstein (2): V, AW

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (2): AW, AR

INTERVIEWS FROM THE NEW YORK FILM FESTIVAL

From YouTube:

Noah Baumbach, George Clooney, Adam Sandler and Laura Dern for Jay Kelly.

Joachim Trier and Noah Baumbach for Sentimental Value and Jay Kelly.

FINAL TRAILER FOR SPRINGSTEEN: DELIVER ME FROM NOWHERE

Just ahead of its Oct. 24th release comes the final trailer for Scott Cooper's Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere. Here it is from You Tube:

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Oscar Race 2026-The Experts: The Contending / Best Picture Scorecard / NYFF Interviews for TFF Films / Visitations: Dickinson and Moura

 OSCAR RACE 2026-THE EXPERTS:THE CONTENDING

I'm beginning to close down my round-up of some of the Oscar prediction websites and their view of which films will be best picture nominated with a focus on what TFF #52 films are in play.  Today we look at Mark Johnson of The Contending.  Mark is also featured as an Oscar Expert for Gold Derby.  Here's how he is handicapping the nominations for BP.  (TFF #52 films are in Bold):

1) One Battle After Another

2) Hamnet

3) Sinners

4) Sentimental Value

5) Wicked: For Good

6) It Was Just an Accident

7) Marty Supreme

8) House of Dynamite

9) Jay Kelly

10) Bugonia

So Mark has five TFF films getting nominated which would be an all time record for number of TFF films nominated for BP in one year.

BEST PICTURE SCORECARD

Let's update our chart of the all of the BP predictions we have gathered so far.  To this point with input from Gold Derby (GD), The Hollywood Reporter (THR), Variety (V),  Awards Watch (AW),  Awards Radar (AR), Next Best Picture (NBP) and The Contending (TC), here's where TFF #52 films stand for BP predictions:

Hamnet (7): GD, THR, V, AW, AR, NBP, TC

Sentimental Value (7): GD, THR, V, AW, AR, NBP, TC

Jay Kelly (6): GD, THR, AW, AR, NBP, TC

Bugonia (5): GD, THR, V, AR, TC

It Was Just Accident (5): GD, THR, AW, NBP, TC

The Secret Agent (2): THR, V, NBP

Frankenstein (2): V, AW

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (2): AW, AR

NYFF INTERVIEWS FOR TFF FILMS

Via YouTube:

JAFAR PANAHI FOR IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Interviewed by Martin Scorsese)

JEREMY ALLEN WHITE AND SCOTT COOPER FOR SPRINGSTEEN: DELIVER ME FROM NOWHERE

VISITATIONS:

Harris Dickinson for Urchin from Time.com

Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent from Anne Thompson of Indiewire

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Checking the Oscar Experts: Next Best Picture / Trailers: Bugonia, PiIlion and If I Had Legs I'd Kick You

 CHECKING THE OSCAR EXPERTS: NEXT BEST PICTURE

With the New York Film Festival comes to a conclusion this weekend, we continue our series of check-ins with a variety of Oscar prognosticators on the Best Picture race with Matt Neglia of Next Best Picture.  Neglia just updated his predictions last Wednesday.  Here's the films he currently predicts will be Best Picture nominated (TFF #52 films are Bold):

1) One Battle After Another

2) Sinners

3) Hamnet

4) Marty Supreme

5) Sentimental Value

6) Jay Kelly

7) It Was Just an Accident

8) Song Sung Blue

9) Wicked: For Good

10) Avatar: Fire and Ash

So Matt has a record tying four TFF films predicted to be nominated for Best Picture.

Here is the link to Next Best Picture's Oscar Predictions.

BEST PICTURE SCOREBOARD

Let's update our chart of the all of the BP predictions from the accumulated predictions we have gathered so far.  To this point with input from Gold Derby (GD), The Hollywood Reporter (THR), Variety (V),  Awards Watch (AW),  Awards Radar (AR) and Next Best Picture (NBP) here's where TFF #52 films stand for BP predictions:

Hamnet (6): GD, THR, V, AW, AR, NBP

Sentimental Value (6): GD, THR, V, AW, AR, NBP

Jay Kelly (5): GD, THR, AW, AR, NBP

Bugonia (4): GD, THR, V, AR

It Was Just Accident (4): GD, THR, AW

The Secret Agent (2): THR, V, NBP

Frankenstein (2): V, AW

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (2): AW, AR

TRAILERS FROM BUGONIA, PILLION AND IF I HAD LEGS I'D KICK YOU

From YouTube:

BUGONIA

PILLION

IF I HAD LEGS I'D KICK YOU

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Checking the Oscar Experts: Awards Radar / New Trailer for Del Toro's Frankenstein / Visitations: Clooney, Sandler and Hawke and More

CHECKING THE OSCAR EXPERTS: AWARDS RADAR

As the New York Film Festival passes its halfway point, we continue our series of check-ins of a variety of Oscar prognosticators on the Best Picture race with Joey Magidson of Awards Radar .  Magidson just updated his predictions last Wednesday.  Here's what he currently will be Best Picture nominated (TFF #52 films are Bold):

1) One Battle After Another

2) Hamnet

3) Sentimental Value

4) A House of Dynamite

5) Sinners

6) Jay Kelly

7) Bugonia

8) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

9) Wicked: For Good

10) Avatar: Fire and Ash

So Magidson is currently predicting five TFF #52 films to pick up BP nominations which would be the most TFF BP noms in a single year.

Other TFF #52 films that are within striking distance per Magidson:

11) It Was Just an Accident

18) Frankenstein

19) Blue Moon

BEST PICTURE SCOREBOARD

To this point with input from Gold Derby (GD), The Hollywood Reporter (THR), Variety (V),  Awards Watch (AW) and Awards Radar (AR) here's where TFF #52 films stand for BP predictions.

Hamnet (5): GD, THR, V, AW, AR

Sentimental Value (5): GD, THR, V, AW, AR

Jay Kelly (4): GD, THR, AW, AR

Bugonia (4): GD, THR, V, AR

It Was Just Accident (3): GD, THR, AW

The Secret Agent (2): THR, V

Frankenstein (2): V, AW

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (2): AW, AR

NEW TRAILER FOR DEL TORO'S FRANKENSTEIN

From YouTube:

VISITATIONS

Jay Kelly Q+A from the New York Film Festival with Clooney, Sandler, Dern, Baumbach and More

Ethan Hawke and Richard Linklater for Blue Moon from The Making Of

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas for Sentimental Value from Pop Culture Confidential

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Checking with Oscar Experts: Awards Watch/ Scoreboard for Best Picture / Clip: Born to Run / Visitations: Behind the Scenes: Springsteen and Paul Mescal and The History of Sound / New Posters: Jay Kelly, Springsteen, Frankenstein and Pillion

CHECKING WITH OSCAR EXPERTS: AWARDS WATCH

We continue today with our rundown of Oscar gurus and their early line Best Picture nominee predictions as we move through the New York Film Festival which will end the wave of the four major fall film fests: Venice, Telluride, Toronto and NYFF.

Today's view comes from Erik Anderson who runs Awards Watch.  Here are his current predictions for Best Picture.  TFF #52 films are Bold.

1) One Battle After Another

2) Hamnet

3) Sinners

4) Sentimental Value

5) Jay Kelly

6) Marty Supreme

7) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

8) It Was Just an Accident

9) Frankenstein

10) Wicked: For Good

Other TFF #52 in the 11-20 spots:

13) The Secret agent

15) Bugonia

This set of predictions would put six TFF #52 titles in the list of ten nominees which would be a TFF record.

The complete list from Awards Watch as well as Best Direction predictions can be found here.

SCOREBOARD FOR BEST PICTURE 

To this point with input from Gold Derby (GD), The Hollywood Reporter (THR), Variety (V) and Awards Watch (AW) here's where TFF #52 films stand for BP predictions.

Hamnet (4): GD, THR, V, AW

Sentimental Value (4): GD, THR, V, AW

Jay Kelly (3): GD, THR, AW

Bugonia (3): GD, THR, V

It Was Just Accident (3): GD, THR, AW

The Secret Agent (2): THR, V

Frankenstein (2): V, AW

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (1): AW

CLIP: BORN TO RUN FROM SPRINGSTEEN: DELIVER ME FROM NOWHERE

From 20th Century Studios and YouTube, a clip of Born to Run:

VISITATIONS

BEHIND THE SCENES OF SPRINGSTEEN: DELIVER ME FROM NOWHERE

From YouTube:

PAUL MESCAL FOR THE HISTORY OF SOUND FROM INDIEWIRE:

Paul Mescal on The History of Sound.

NEW POSTERS

JAY KELLY:

SPRINGSTEEN: DELIVER ME FROM NOWHERE:

FRANKENSTEIN:

PILLION:

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Checking with Oscar Experts: Variety / New Trailer for Jay Kelly / Visitations: Ballad of a Small Player and The Mastermind

CHECKING WITH OSCAR EXPERTS: VARIETY

We started with last Thursday's post to transition from predicting the films that would play Telluride to focusing on which TFF #52 films might be players in the 2025-26 awards season.  We began with Scott Feinberg of  The Hollywood Reporter and today we look at the Best Picture predictions from Variety's Clayton Davis, senior awards editor.  Here are Davis's current top ten picks to get nominated for best Picture (TFF 352 films are in bold and are listed in order of most likely to less likely:

1) Hamnet

2) One Battle after Another

3) Sinners

4) A House of Dynamite

5) Wicked: For Good

6) Sentimental Value

7) Marty Supreme

8) Frankenstein

9) The Secret Agent 

10) Bugonia

Other TFF #52 films in the Top Twenty are:

13) It Was Just an Accident

15) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

17) Jay Kelly

So in this scenario five TFF #52 films would be Best Picture nominated which would be a first for that to occur.

Davis's current picks are linked here.

NEW TRAILER FOR JAY KELLY

From Netflix this morning, the release of a new trailer for Noah Baumbach's Jay Kelly starring George Clooney, Adam Sandler and Laura Dern.  Jay Kelly is in theaters on Nov.14th.

VISITATIONS

Director Edward Berger on Ballad of a Small Player for The Hollywood Reporter.

Kelly Reichardt, John Magaro, Bill Camp and others for The Mastermind at the New York Film Festival.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

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