Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
"But it's our job." - Anne Thompson, Indiewire
Here is the first set of what I think is going to happen on the evening of March 15th at the 98th Oscar ceremony. We'll start with the eight "above-the-line categories. TFF films are Bold.
BEST PICTURE
1) One Battle After Another
2) Sinners
3) Hamnet
4) Sentimental Value
5) Marty Supreme
6) Frankenstein
7) The Secret Agent
8) Bugonia
9) Train Dreams
10) F1
BEST DIRECTION
1) Paul Thomas Anderson/One Battle After Another
2) Ryan Coogler/Sinners
3) Chloe Zhao/Hamnet
4) Joachim Trier/Sentimental Value
5) Josh Safdie/Marty Supreme
BEST ACTRESS
1) Jesse Buckley/Hamnet
2) Rose Byrne/If I Had Legs I's Kick You
3) Renate Reinsve/Sentimental Value
4) Emma Stone/Bugonia
5) Kate Hudson/Song Sung Blue
BEST ACTOR
1) Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme
2) Leonardo DiCaprio/One Battle After Another
3) Michael B. Jordan/Sinners
4) Wagner Moura/The Secret Agent
5) Ethan Hawke/Blue Moon
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1) Teyana Taylor/One Battle After Another
2) Amy Madigan/Weapons
3) Wunmi Moskau/Sinners
4) Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas/Sentimental Value
5) Elle Fanning/Sentimental Value
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Stellan Skarsgard/Sentimental Value
2) Jacob Elordi/Frankenstein
3) Benicio Del Toro/One Battle After Another
4) Delroy Lindo/Sinners
5) Sean Penn/One Battle After Another
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) Sinners
2) Sentimental Value
3) Marty Supreme
4) It Was Just an Accident
5) Blue Moon
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) One Battle After Another
2) Hamnet
3) Train Dreams
4) Bugonia
5) Frankenstein
This and that:
***OBAA is projected to win three of these eight categories. It's the only film projected to win more than one. among these eight categories.
***TFF has 23 nominees among these eight categories. Jesse Buckley looks like the only TFF win.
***As a matter of fact, Best Actress goes to a TFF film unless Kate Hudson pulls an upset.
***The only close races here is Best Picture which is a tight race between OBAA and Sinners. The rest of the seven other categories seem set right now.
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Others: Jafar Panhani/It Was Just an Accident, Josh Safdie/Marty Supreme and Kleber Mendanca Filho/The Secret Agent.
BEST ACTRESS
1) Jesse Buckley/Hamnet (1)
2) Rose Byrne/If I Had Legs I'd Kick You (2)
3) Renee Reinsve/Sentimental Value (3)
4) Emma Stone/Bugonia (4)
5) Chase Infiniti/OBAA (5)
Others: Kate Hudson/Song Sung Blue , Amanda Seyfreid/The Testament of Ann Lee and Cynthia Erivo/Wicked: For Good.
BEST ACTOR
1) Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme (1)
2) Leonardo DiCaprio/OBAA (2)
3) Walter Moura/The Secret Agent (3)
4) Ethan Hawke/Blue Moon (4)
5) Michael B. Jordan/Sinners (5)
Others: Joel Edgerton/Train Dreams,Jesse Plemons/Bugonia and George Clooney/Jay Kelly
SUPPRORTING ACTRESS
1) Teyana Taylor/One Battle After Another (1)
2) Amy Madigan/Weapons (2)
3) Ariana Grande/Wicked" For Good (3)
4) Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas/Sentimental Value (4)
5) Elle Fanning/Sentimental Value (5)
Others: Wunmi Mosaku/Sinners, Regina Hall/One Battle After Another and Odessa A'Zion/Marty Supreme.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Stellan Skarsgard/Sentimental Value (1)
2) Benicio del Toro/One Battle After Another (2)
3) Jacob Elordi/Frankenstein (3)
4) Sean Penn/One Battle After Another (4)
5) Paul Mescal/Hamnet (5)
Others: Adam Sandler/Jay Kelly, Miles Caton/SinnersandDelRoy Lindo/Sinners.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) Sinners (1)
2) Marty Supreme (2)
3) Sentimental Value (3)
4) It Was Just an Accident (4)
5) Weapon (5)
Others: Sorry, Baby, Jay Kelly and The Secret Agent.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) One Battle After Another (1)
2) Hamnet (2)
3) Train Dreams (3)
4) Frankenstein (4)
5) Bugonia (5)
Others: No Other Choice, Wakeup Dead Manand Nuremburg.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
1) Sentimental Value (Norway) (1)
2) It Was Just an Accident (France) (2)
3) The Secret Agent (Brazil) (3)
4) Sirat (4)
5) No Other Choice (South Korea) (5)
Others: The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia), Left-Handed Girl (Taiwan) and Kukuho (Japan).
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1) The Perfect Neighbor (1)
2) 2000 Meters to Andriivka (2)
3) Cover-Up (3)
4) The Alabama Solution (4)
5) Apocalypse in the Tropics (*TFF #51) (NR)
Others:Come See Me in the Good Light, My Undesirable Friends: Part 1 and Mr. Nobody Against Putin.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1) K-Pop Demon Hunters (1)
2) Zootopia 2 (2)
3) Arco (3)
4) Little Amelie or the Character of Rain (4)
5) Elio (5)
Others: In Your Dreams, Demon Slayer, The Magnificent Life.
BEST CASTING
1) Sinners (1)
2) One Battle After Another (2)
3) Marty Supreme (3)
4) Hamnet (4)
5) Wicked: For Good (4)
Others: Frankenstein, Sentimental Value and Weapons.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1) Sinners (1)
2) One Battle after Another (2)
3) Hamnet (3)
4) Train Dreams (4)
5) Frankenstein (5)
Others: F1, Marty Supreme and Bugonia.
BEST EDITING
1) One Battle After Another (1)
2) Sinners (2)
3) F1 (3)
4) Marty Supreme (4)
5) Hamnet (5)
Others: Frankenstein, It Was Just an Accident and Sentimental Value.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1) Sinners (1)
2) One Battle After Another (2)
3) Hamnet (3)
4) Frankenstein (4)
5) Train Dreams (5)
Others: F1, Marty Supreme and Sirat.
ORIGINAL SONG
1) Golden/K Pop Demon Hunters (1)
2) I Lied to You/Sinners (2)
3) Dear Me/Diane Warren: Relentless (3)
4) Last Time (I Seen the Sun)/Sinners (4)
5) Train Dreams/Train Dreams (5)
Others: The Girl in the Bubble/Wicked: For Good, Dream as One/Avatar: Fire and Ash.
PRODUCTION DESIGN
1) Frankenstein (1)
2) Sinners (2)
3) Hamnet (3)
4) Wicked: For Good (4)
5) Marty Supreme (5)
Others: Avatar: Fire and Ash, One Battle After Another and The Fantastic Four: First Steps.
COSTUME DESIGN
1) Frankenstein (1)
2) Wicked: For Good (2)
3) Sinners (3)
4) Hamnet (4)
5) Hedda (5)
Others: The Testament of Ann Lee, Marty Supreme and Kiss of the Spiderman.
MAKEUP AND HAIR
1) Frankenstein (1)
2) Wicked: For Good (2)
3) Sinners (3)
4) The Smashing Machine (4)
5) Kokuho (5)
Others: One Battle After Another, Marty Supreme and Nuremburg.
SOUND DESIGN
1) F1 (2)
2) Sinners (1)
3) One Battle After Another (3)
4) Avatar: Fire and Ash (NR)
5) Wicked: For Good (4)
Others: Sirat, Frankenstein and Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere.
VISUAL EFFECTS
1) Avatar: Fire and Ash (1)
2) F1 (2)
3) Sinners (3)
4) Frankenstein (4)
5) Superman (5)
Others: Wicked: For Good, Jurassic World Rebirth and The Lost Bus.
ANIMATED SHORT
1) Eiru
2) Butterfly
3) Playing God
4) Snow Bear
5) Cardboard
Others: The Girl Who Cried Pearls, Hurikan, The Quinta's Ghost and The Shyness of Trees.
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
1) All the Empty Rooms
2) The Devil Is Busy
3) Armed With Only a Camera
4) All the Walls Came Down
5) Chasing Time
Others: Classroom 4, We Were the Scenery and Perfectly a Strangeness.
LIVE ACTION SHORT
1) Two People Exchanging Saliva
2) Rock, Paper, Scissors
3) The Singers
4) Extremist
5) Jane Austen's Period Drama
Others: Beyond Silence, Pantyhose and The Boy with White Skin.
THE EXPERTS WEIGH IN
Here's a rundown of how some Oscar experts are predicting nominations for Telluride films:
***VARIETY
Hamnet (10): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Buckley), Supporting Actor (Mescal), Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Production Design, Costumes, Editing and Score.
Frankenstein (10): Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actor (Elordi), Adapted Screenplay, Production Design, Cinematography, Costumes, Makeup/Hair, Sound and Score.
Sentimental Value (7): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Reinsve), Supporting Actor (Skarsgard), Supporting Actress (Lilleaas), Original Screenplay, International Feature.
Bugonia (4): Best Picture, Actress (Stone), Adapted Screenplay and Production Design.
The Secret Agent (4): Best Picture, Actor (Moura), Casting and International Feature.
Blue Moon (2) Best Actor (Hawke) and Original Screenplay.
Single nominations:
If I Had Legs I'd Kick You: Best Actress (Byrne).
It Was Just and Accident: Best International Feature.
Frankenstein (12): Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actor (Elordi), Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Cinematography, Costumes, Makeup/Hair, Score, Production Design, Sound and Visual Effects.
Hamnet (10): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Buckley), Supporting Actor (Mescal), Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Costumes, Editing, Score and Production Design.
Sentimental Value (5): Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Skarsgard), Supporting Actress (Lilleaas), Original Screenplay, International Feature.
Bugonia (3): Best Picture, Actress (Stone) and Adapted Screenplay.
The Secret Agent (3): Best Picture, Actor (Moura) and International Feature.
It Was Just an Accident (2): Best International Feature and Original Screenplay.
Hamnet (11): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Buckley), Supporting Actor (Mescal), Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Editing, Cinematography, Costumes, Production Design and Score.
Frankenstein (10): Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Elordi), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Costumes, Makeup/Hair, Score, Production Design, Sound and Visual Effects.
Sentimental Value (8): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Reinsve), Supporting Actress (Lilleaas),, Supporting Actor (Skarsgard) Original Screenplay, Casting and International Feature.
It Was Just an Accident (4): Best Picture, Direction, Original Screenplay, International Feature.
Bugonia (3): Best Picture, Actress (Stone)and Adapted Screenplay.
The Secret Agent (3): Best Picture, Actor (Moura) and International Feature.
Single nominations for:
Blue Moon: Best Actor (Hawke).
If I Had Legs I'd Kick You: Best Actress (Byrne).
Apocalypse in the Tropics: Best Documentary (TFF #51)
Hamnet (11): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Buckley), Supporting Actor (Mescal), Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Editing, Cinematography, Costumes, Production Design and Score.
Frankenstein (10): Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Elordi), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Costumes, Makeup/Hair, Score, Production Design, Sound and Visual Effects.
Sentimental Value (7): Best Picture, Actress (Reinsve), Supporting Actor (Skarsgard), Supporting Actress (Lilleaas), Original Screenplay, Casting and International Feature.
The Secret Agent (4): Best Picture, Actor (Moura), Original Screenplay and International Feature.
It Was Just an Accident (4): Best Picture, Direction, Original Screenplay and International Feature.
Bugonia (3): Best Picture, Actress (Stone) and Adapted Screenplay.
Single nominations for:
Blue Moon: Best Actor (Hawke).
If I Had Legs I'd Kick You: Best Actress (Byrne).
Cover-Up: Best Documentary.
All the Empty Rooms: Best Documentary Short.
All the Walls Came Down: Best Documentary Short.
The Contending has 11 TFF films earning 44 nominations.
MTFB OSCAR PREDICTIONS #3: BEST PIC, DIRECTION, LEAD ACTING
MTFB begins its expansion of Oscar nomination predictions today by updating four categories. I'll update the Supporting Acting and Screenplay categories on Monday and a week from today start to provide predictions in the other 13 feature film categories.
or today and Monday you can see the last predicted position of each film to the right of the title in parentheses. TFF #52 films/performers are in Bold.
BEST PICTURE
1) One Battle After Another (1)
2) Hamnet (2)
3) Sinners (3)
4) Sentimental Value (4)
5) Marty Supreme (5)
6) Wicked: For Good (6)
7) Frankenstein (9)
8) It Was Just an Accident (7)
9) Jay Kelly (8)
10) Train Dreams (NR)
Others: Bugonia, Avatar: Fire and Ice, F1.
BEST DIRECTION
1) Paul Thomas Anderson/OBAA (1)
2) Chloe Zhao/Hamnet (2)
3) Ryan Coogler/Sinners (3)
4) Jafar Panahi/It Was Just an Accident (5)
5) Joachim Trier/Sentimental Value (4)
Others: Josh Safdie/Marty Supreme, Noah Baumbach/Jay Kelly and Guillermo del Toro/Frankenstein.
BEST ACTRESS
1) Jesse Buckley/Hamnet (1)
2) Rene Reinsve/Sentimental Value (2)
3) Cynthia Enviro/Wicked: For Good (3)
4) Emma Stone/Bugonia (4)
5) Amanda Seyfried/The Testament of Ann Lee (5)
Others: Chase Infiniti/OBAA, Kate Hudson/Song Sung Blue,Sidney and Rose Byrne/If I Had Legs I'd Kick You.
1) Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme (1)
2) Leonardo DiCaprio/OBAA (2)
3) Walter Moura/The Secret Agent (3)
4) Michael B. Jordan/Sinners (5)
5) Ethan Hawke/Blue Moon (4)
Others: George Clooney/Jay Kelly, Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere.
EUROPEAN FILM AWARD NOMINATIONS AND TFF
Joachim Trier's Sentimental Value led the first wave of European Film Awards nominations announced last Tuesday. Here are the nominations for TFF films:
Sentimental Value: Best European Film, Director, Actress (Reinsve), Actor (Sarsgard), Screenwriter.
It Was Just an Accident: Best European Film, Director, Screenwriter.
La Grazia: Best European Actor (Servillo) and Screenwriter.
Bugonia: Best European Director.
And from TFF #51: Riefenstahl: Best European Film and Documentary.
I'm through the second wave of predictions for the 2026 Oscars and the eight " Above the Line" categories. I'll start expanding the predictions with Thursday's post to eventually include all 24 categories (up from 23 as The Academy has added Best Casting as a new Oscar category for this year).
But before I go into the expanded set of predictions, here's a reminder of where MTFB has nominees predicted currently. These predictions were posted between Nov. 3rd and Nov. 13th. TFF #52 films/performers are in Bold.
BEST PICTURE
1) One Battle After Another (1)
2) Hamnet (2)
3) Sinners (3)
4) Sentimental Value (4)
5) Marty Supreme (5)
6) Wicked: For Good (9)
7) It Was Just an Accident (8)
8) Jay Kelly (6)
9) Frankenstein (NR)
10) Bugonia (NR)
Others: Train Dreams, Avatar: Fire and Ice, The Secret Agent and A House of Dynamite.
Comment: Big moves up for Wicked: For Good, Frankenstein and Bugonia. Dropping for Jay Kelly and A House of Dynamite.
BEST DIRECTION
1) Paul Thomas Anderson/OBAA (1)
2) Chloe Zhao/Hamnet (2)
3) Ryan Coogler/Sinners (3)
4) Joachim Trier/Sentimental Value (4)
5) Jafar Panahi/It Was Just an Accident (5)
Others: Josh Safdie/Marty Supreme, Noah Baumbach/Jay Kelly and Guillermo del Toro/Frankenstein.
BEST ACTRESS
1) Jesse Buckley/Hamnet (1)
2) Rene Reinsve/Sentimental Value (2)
3) Cynthia Enviro/Wicked: For Good (3)
4) Emma Stone/Bugonia (4)
5) Amanda Seyfried/The Testament of Ann Lee (NR)
Others: Kate Hudson/Song Sung Blue,Sidney Sweeney/Christy and Rose Byrne/If I Had Legs I'd Kick You.
1) Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme (2)
2) Leonardo Di Caprio/OBAA (1)
3) Walter Moura/The Secret Agent (3)
4) Ethan Hawke (NR)
5) Michael B. Jordan/Sinners (5)
Others: George Clooney/Jay Kelly, Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere.
SUPPRORTING ACTRESS
1) Teyana Taylor/One Battle After Another (1)
2) Ariana Grande/Wicked: For Good (2)
3) Elle Fanning/Sentimental Value (4)
4) Amy Madigan/Weapons (3)
5) Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas/Sentimental Value (5)
Others: Regina Hall/One Battle After Another, Gwyneth Paltrow/Marty Supreme and Hailee Steinfeld/Sinners.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Stellan Skarsgard/Sentimental Value (1)
2) Sean Penn/One Battle After Another (2)
3) Paul Mescal/Hamnet (3)
4) Adam Sandler/Jay Kelly (4)
5) Benicio del Toro/One Battle After Another (5)
Others: Jacob Elordi/Frankenstein, DelRoy Lindo/Sinners and Jeremy Strong/Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) Sinners (1)
2) Sentimental Value (2)
3) Marty Supreme (3)
4) Jay Kelly (4)
5) It Was Just an Accident (5)
Others: A House of Dynamite, Weapon and Blue Moon.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) Hamnet (2)
2) One Battle After Another (1)
3) Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (3)
4) Bugonia (4)
5) Train Dreams (5)
Others: Frankenstein, No Other Choiceand Wicked: For Good.
COMMENT: Sentimental Value is predicted to earn seven nominations in these eight categories to lead the way. Here's the breakdown of the 10 films MTFB has with possible Oscar nominations in the Big Eight categories:
Sentimental Value (7): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Reinsve), Supporting Actress (Fanning), Supporting Actress (Ibsdotter Lilleaas), Supporting Actor (Skarsgard), Original Screenplay.
Hamnet (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Buckley), Supporting Actor (Mescal), Adapted Screenplay.
Jay Kelly (3): Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Sandler), Original Screenplay.
Bugonia (3): Best Picture, Actress (Stone) and Adapted Screenplay.
It Was Just an Accident (2): Best Picture, Original Screenplay.
The Secret Agent (1): Best Actor (Moura).
Blue Moon (1): Best Actor (Hawke).
Other "possible" nominations:
Frankenstein: Best Direction, Supporting Actor (Elordi), Adapted Screenplay.
Jay Kelly: Best Direction, Actor (Clooney).
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere: Best Actor (White), Supporting Actor (Strong).
The Secret Agent: Best Picture.
If I Had Legs I's Kick You: Best Actress (Byrne).
Blue Moon: Best Original Screenplay.
Total MTFB predicted nominations from these eight categories for Telluride films: 22
Other "possible" nominations: 10.
LOOKS AT JAY KELLY
With its release coming in less than a month (Dec. 5th), the P.R. is ramping up for Noah Baumbach's Jay Kelly starring George Clooney, Adam Sandler and Laura Dern. Here's a taste of some of the promo that's in the air for the film.
Today I am concluding my second wave of Oscar predictions for this year with the focus on the Screenplay categories. All contenders from TFF #52 films are listed in Bold.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) Sinners (1)
2) Sentimental Value (2)
3) Marty Supreme (3)
4) Jay Kelly (4)
5) It Was Just an Accident (5)
Others: A House of Dynamite, Weapon and Blue Moon.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) Hamnet (2)
2) One Battle After Another (1)
3) Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (3)
4) Bugonia (4)
5) Train Dreams (5)
Others: Frankenstein, No Other Choiceand Wicked: For Good.
CRITIC'S CHOICE AWARDS AND DOCUMENTARIES
The Critic's Choice Awards recognized Ken Burns The American Revolution as Best Historical Documentary of the year. The film tied with Hurricane Katrina: Race Against Time for the honor. Burns was also named winner of the Critic's Choice Impact Award.
Burns also serves as a member of the TFF Board of Governors.
The American Revolution screened as a part of the 52nd Telluride Film Festival on Friday, Aug. 29th at 10:00am (MDT) at the Sheridan Opera House.
The Perfect Neighbor was named the Best Documentary Feature as well as four other awards to lead the event.
MTFB continues its up date of Oscar predictions with the Lead acting Categories. These predictions will include the actors current ranking as well as its position from two weeks back. TFF #52 films are in Bold.
BEST ACTRESS
1) Jesse Buckley/Hamnet (1)
2) Rene Reinsve/Sentimental Value (2)
3) Cynthia Enviro/Wicked: For Good (3)
4) Emma Stone/Bugonia (4)
5) Amanda Seyfried/The Testament of Ann Lee (NR)
Others: Kate Hudson/Song Sung Blue,Sidney Sweeney/Christy and Rose Byrne/If I Had Legs I'd Kick You.
1) Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme (2)
2) Leonardo Di Caprio/OBAA (1)
3) Walter Moura/The Secret Agent (3)
4) Ethan Hawke (NR)
5) Michael B. Jordan/Sinners (5)
Others: George Clooney/Jay Kelly, Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere.
Comment: At this early point there would be five TFF #52 performances nominated for Best Lead: Buckley, Reinsve, Stone, Moura and Hawke. Big movers up are Seyfried and Hawke. Also note Chalamet's rise to number one among the men over DiCaprio.
Next post: Supporting Actors.
GOLD DERBY HAS HAMNET IN FRONT
In a very interesting twist Gold Derby now has Chloe Zhao's Hamnet fractionally ahead of Paul Thomas Anderson's One Battle After Another. The edition posted yesterday revealed that. You can see that post linked here.
Additionally Gold Derby has five TFF #52 in the predicted five for Best Picture: Hamnet, Sentimental Value, It was Just an Accident, Frankenstein and Bugonia. Five BP nominations for films that played Telluride in a single year would establish a new record TFF.
TFF #52 AND THE BRITISH INDEPENDENT FILM AWARDS
Five TFF #52 films were nominated for British Independent Film Awards on Monday. Henry Lighton's Pillion had the most nominations of any Telluride film with 10. Harris Dickinson's Urchin had six. Here's the complete breakdown:
Pillion (10): Best British Independent Film, Best Direction (Lighton), Screenplay (Lighton), Lead Performance (Melling), Supporting Performance (Skarsgard), Debut Director (Lighton), Debut Screenplay (Lighton), Costuming, Editing and Make-up/Hair.
Urchin (6): Best British Independent Film, Best Lead Performance (Millane), Debut Director (Dickinson), Breakthrough Producer (Pearch). Casting, Music Supervision.
Sentimental Value (1): Best International Independent Film.
It Was Just an Accident (1): Best International Independent Film.
Today I am concluding my first wave of Oscar predictions for this year with the focus on the Screenplay categories. All contenders from TFF #52 films are listed in Bold.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) Sinners
2) Sentimental Value
3) Marty Supreme
4) Jay Kelly
5) It Was Just an Accident
Others: A House of Dynamite, The Secret Agent and Weapons.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) One Battle After Another
2) Hamnet
3) Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
4) Bugonia
5) Train Dreams
Others: No Other Choice, Frankenstein and Song Sung Blue.
Currently, if all of MTFB's current predictions came true in the Big Eight categories, 10 TFF #52 films would receive 21 nominations with another 12 nominations possible. Here's that breakdown by film:
Sentimental Value (6): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Reinsve), Supporting Actress (Fanning), Supporting Actress (Lilleaas), Original Screenplay.
Hamnet (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Buckley), Supporting Actor (Mescal) and Adapted Screenplay.
Jay Kelley (3): Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Sandler) and Original Screenplay. Three other possibilities: Direction, Actor (Clooney), Supporting Actor (Crudup).
It Was Just an Accident (3): Best Picture, Direction, Original Screenplay.
The Secret Agent (2): Best Picture, Best Actor (Moura). Two other possibilities: Best Picture and Original Screenplay.
Bugonia (1): Adapted Screenplay. Two other possibilities: Best Picture and Actor (Plemons)
Springsteen: Deliver me from Nowhere (1): Best Actor (White). Two other possibilities: Best Picture and Supporting Actor (Strong).
Other films with Oscar possibilities:
If I Had Legs I'd Kick You: Best Actress (Byrne).
Blue Moon: Best Actor (Hawke).
Frankenstein: Adapted Screenplay.
I'll start the first round of updating predictions with next Monday's post.
TFF #52 HAS 24 GOTHAM AWARDS NOMINATIONS
Here's how Gotham Awards nominations went for TFF #52 films. The big surprise was that If I Had Legs I'd Kick You had the biggest footprint among all 13 TFF #52 films to get a nomination. TFF #52 films had a combines 24 nominations:
If I Had Legs I'd Kick You (4): Best Feature, Direction, Outstanding Lead Performance (Byrne), Original Screenplay.
It was Just an Accident (3): Best International Feature, Direction, Original Screenplay.
Hamnet (2): Best Feature, Outstanding Lead Performance (Buckley).
MTFB'S FIRST OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS FOR 2025-26
Well, we're finally here. Seven weeks after the conclusion of TFF #52 it's time to start making some predix myself for the coming Oscar Season. Today we'll roll out Best Picture and Best Direction. We'll follow up with the Lead Acting categories on Thursday and then next week we'll the Supporting Acting categories and then the Screenplay categories. We'll keep the focus on these eight "above the Line" categories for a bit before expending to eventually include all categories prior to Oscar nomination morning on January 22, 2026.
TFF #52 films are Bold. Here we go...
BEST PICTURE
1) One Battle After Another
2) Hamnet
3) Sinners
4) Sentimental Value
5) Marty Supreme
6) Jay Kelly
7) A House of Dynamite
8) It Was Just an Accident
9) Wicked: For Good
10) The Secret Agent
Other Possibles: Bugonia, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere and Avatar: Fire and Ice.
Should these prove out to be the top ten it would mean half the nominated field for Best Picture played at TFF 52 which would be new record for TFF films to be BP nominated.
