Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
Just announced this morning after the blog's post time, the New York Film Festival has added Scott Cooper's Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere to its lineup as a Spotlight Gala. Noteworthy is that the language of the press release refers to it as a premiere but does NOT indicate what level of premiere.
I have also been told that the original release may have suggested that it was a World premiere but that has been scrubbed for the current language.
All of this tends to support the notion that the film will, in fact bow initially at Telluride.
Here's the link to the NYFF announcement in its current form:
We haven't heard much about Lynne Ramsay and Die, My Love since Cannes. But now, over the weekend, Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel sourcing from Screen Daily suggests that Ramsay has been re-editing the film since Cannes. Ruimy also reminds us that the same scenario occurred when Ramsay screened We Need to Talk About Kevin at Cannes in 2011 and then worked on further editing it afterwards. Of course that film went on to screen at Telluride.
Ruimy even suggests that a repeat of that scenario is not completely out of the question writing:
"IndieWire’s “Screen Talk” podcast seems to now be hinting that Ramsay went back to the editing room after Cannes to further shape “Die, My Love,” which might potentially explain its absence at the fall fests — although I still wouldn’t rule out a Telluride appearance."
GOLD DERBY OSCAR RANKINGS FOR WHAT WE THINK IS HEADED TO TFF #52
As many of you readers know, when the fest concludes on Sept. 1st and this space will then become focused on the awards season fortunes of the films that make up the TFF #52 lineup. So I took a look at how the experts at Gold Derby had rated some of the films that we think may play T-ride in a few weeks. Here's where they sit:
#3 Sentimental Value
#4 Jay Kelly
#7 Bugonia
#8 Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
#13 It Was Just an Accident
#15 Hamnet
#21 The Ballad of Small Player
#35 The History of Sound
#39 The Mastermind
#47 The Secret Agent
#48 Nouvelle Vague
If the Gold Derby experts are correct TFF #52 would have four films get Oscar nominated for Best Picture.
Lots of information flying around earlier this week from Toronto and New York allows us to clean up the Ten Bets as well as "possibilities". By way of review, here's last week's Ten Bets:
This week's new Ten Bets:
1) Hamnet/Zhao
2) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
3) Sentimental Value/Trier
4) Ballad of a Small Player/Berger
5) The Secret Agent/Filho
6) Nouvelle Vague/Linklater
7) Tuner/Roher
8) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
9) The History of Sound/Hermanus
10) Jay Kelly/Baumbach
Other possibilities: Bugonia, Blue Moon, The Young Mother's Home, The Love That Remains, The Drama, Pillion, Left-Handed Girl, Die My Love, Anemone, At the Sea, Late Fame, A Magnificent Life, Mother Mary, Pressure, The American Revolution, Ghost Elephants, Bucking Fastard, La Grazia, Orphan, Hand of Dante, Cover-Up, Megadoc, No Other Choice, The Wizard of the Kremlin, Train Dreams.
Now, in light of the week's info...the new Ten Bets (Plus):
This week's new Ten Bets (Plus):
1) Hamnet/Zhao
2) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
3) Sentimental Value/Trier
4) Ballad of a Small Player/Berger
5) The Secret Agent/Filho
6) Nouvelle Vague/Linklater
7) Tuner/Roher
8) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
9) The History of Sound/Hermanus
10) Jay Kelly/Baumbach
11) Bugonia/Lanthimos
12) The Mastermind/Reichardt
13) Cover-Up/Poitras
14) Ghost Elephants/Herzog
15) Hamlet/Karia
Other possibilities: Resurrection, Nuestra Tierra, The Young Mother's Home, The Drama, Pillion, Die My Love, Anemone, At the Sea, A Magnificent Life, Mother Mary, Pressure, The American Revolution, Ghost Elephants, Bucking Fastard, La Grazia, Megadoc, Train Dreams.
I was shocked that Blue Moon was announced by Toronto as a North American Premiere. I would have bet actual money that it was going to be at Telluride. I was almost as certain that The Love That Remains would also make it to TFF#52 but it was also announced as a TIFF North American premiere.
Here's the list of films that I had been T-ride watching which got nuked for TFF#52 by announcements earlier this week:
Blue Moon
The Love That Remains
Late Fame
Magellan
Mirrors #3
No Other Choice
Two Prosecutors
The President's Cake
Unidentified
Left-Handed Girl
Orphan
Orwell 2+2=5
Films that moved up the Ten Bets based on this week's information:
The Mastermind
Cover-Up
Hamlet
Resurrection
Landmarks (Nuestra Tierra) is up in the air. New York says it's a NY Premiere. Toronto says it has the North American premiere. If New York is correct means probably Telluride. If Toronto is correct...no Telluride.
VENICE SCHEDULE IS UP
Early this morning the official public schedule for the Venice Film Festival was posted. The schedule appears to confirm that theses films are screening early enough to make it to Colorado:
La Grazia (Opening night film)
From 8/28
Ghost Elephants
Orphan
Bugonia
Jay Kelly
Megadoc
From 8/29
Cover-Up
After the Hunt
From earlier announcements from other fests we believe that Orphan and After the Hunt are off the table for Telluride.
We're also pretty sure that this helps signal that Bugonia, Jay Kelly and Cover-Up are headed to Telluride.
Ghost Elephants...that's Werner Herzog...making me think that it's in the bag for Telluride. Megadoc? I'm not so sure. Also that could be complicated Francis Ford Coppola's health situation.
Four weeks from today we'll see the actual lineup for TFF #52. Until then it's all speculation. So, let's speculate. But first, a recap of last week's Ten Bets:
1) Hamnet/Zhao
2) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
3) Sentimental Value/Trier
4) Ballad of a Small Player/Berger
5) The Secret Agent/Filho
6) Nouvelle Vague/Linklater
7) Tuner/Roher
8) Bugonia/Lanthimos
9) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
10) The History of Sound/Hermanus
Other possibilities: Blue Moon, The Young Mother's Home, The Love That Remains, Jay Kelly, Left-Handed Girl, Die My Love, Anemone, Pressure, The American Revolution, Ghost Elephants, Bucking Fastard, La Grazia, A House of Dynamite, Orphan, Hand of Dante, Cover-Up.
With some new information over the last week, the new Ten Bets are so:
This week's new Ten Bets:
1) Hamnet/Zhao
2) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
3) Sentimental Value/Trier
4) Ballad of a Small Player/Berger
5) The Secret Agent/Filho
6) Nouvelle Vague/Linklater
7) Tuner/Roher
8) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
9) The History of Sound/Hermanus
10) Jay Kelly/Baumbach
Other possibilities: Bugonia, Blue Moon, The Young Mother's Home, The Love That Remains, The Drama, Pillion, Left-Handed Girl, Die My Love, Anemone, At the Sea, Late Fame, A Magnificent Life, Mother Mary, Pressure, The American Revolution, Ghost Elephants, Bucking Fastard, La Grazia, Orphan, Hand of Dante, Cover-Up, Megadoc, No Other Choice, The Wizard of the Kremlin, Train Dreams.
Jay Kelly moves into the Ten Bets on the strength of some reporting earlier in the week. It bumps Bugonia. New additions to the "Possibles" include: Pillion, The Drama, At the sea, Late Fame, A Magnificent Life, Mother Mary, Megadoc, No Other Choice, The wizard of the Kremlin and Train Dreams ( I know it played Sundance but maybe it'll be an exception like The Outrun last year).
IS THIS THING OFF?
It sure seems that way as the New York Film Festival announced yesterday that Bradley Cooper's Is This On? was announced as that fest's Closing Night film and will be a World Premiere which means it will not play Telluride or Toronto either for that matter.
It has been a film that I have had high hopes for vis-a-vis TFF #52 but, alas, Nope!
BLUE MOON HAS A TRAILER
Listed currently as a "Possibility" for TFF #52, Richard Linklater's Blue Moon is set for release on Oct. 24th. I've had Blue Moon in earlier iterations of the Ten Bets and still feel pretty good about its chances of making the lineup.
Anyway, Sony Pictures Classics released a trailer for the film on Tuesday. here it is from YouTube:
I liked it.
THE SECRET AGENT AND LEFT-HANDED GIRL GET DATES
Kleber Mendonça Filho's The Secret Agent has been dated for U.S. release. Neon has set a New York roll out for Nov. 26th followed by release in L.A. on Dec. 5th. The Secret Agent was a big winner at Cannes gaining awards for Best Director and Best Actor among the films in competition for the Palme d'Or.
Its description at IMDb is as follows:
In 1977, a technology expert flees from a mysterious past and returns to his hometown of Recife in search of peace. He soon realizes that the city is far from being the refuge he seeks.
Meanwhile...
Netflix announced yesterday that Shih-Ching Tsou's Left-Handed Girl has been dated for a Nov. 14th theatrical release allowing it to meet Academy Awards requirements for Oscar consideration should it be submitted. The film played as a part of Cannes Critics Week and had a healthy Cannes-ratings.org average of 7.74 (8th best overall of all films that played in various sections of Cannes). The film also picked up the Semaine Distribution Prize.
The film was produced, co-written and edited by Oscar winner Sean Baker (who won Oscars for each of those jobs for Anora last year).
Its IMDb description:
A single mother and her two daughters relocate to Taipei to open a night market stall, each navigating the challenges of adapting to their new environment while striving to maintain family unity.
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Well, here we are. We probably know some things with a reasonable degree of certainty at this poinmt after reveals from Toronto, Venice and New York.
After Toronto's Monday announcement we think this is true:
These seven films appear locked into Telluride:
Hamnet
Ballad of a Small Player
It Was Just an Accident
Nouvelle Vague
Sentimental Value
The Secret Agent
Tuner
These are film's from Venice that feel like they might play there and then come over for TFF #52:
La Grazia
Jay Kelly
The Wizard of the Kremlin
House of Dynamite
Bugoina
Orphan
Hand of Dante
Ghost Elephants
Cover-Up
I had After the Hunt on this list right up until yesterday when New York announced it as its Opening Night film as a North American Premiere...so no Telluride.
Other films that seem gone from Telluride consideration:
Sirat
Frankenstein
Eleanor the Great
Other films that could still play Telluride:
Bugonia
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Blue Moon
The Young Mothers' Home
The History of Sound
The Love That Remains
Left-Handed Girl
Pressure
Die, My Love
The Mastermind
The American Revolution
Bucking Fastard
Last week's Ten Bets:
1) Hamnet/Zhao
2) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
3) Sentimental Value/Trier
4) Bugonia/Lanthimos
5) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper
6) Blue Moon/Linklater
7) Sirat/Laxe
8) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardenne Brothers
9) The History of Sound/Hermanus
10) After the Hunt/Guadagnino
Other possibilities: The Ballad of a Small Player, The Love That Remains, The Secret Agent, Jay Kelly, Left-Handed Girl, Frankenstein, Eleanor the Great, Pressure, Die My Love, The Mastermind, The American Revolution.
This week's new Ten Bets:
1) Hamnet/Zhao
2) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
3) Sentimental Value/Trier
4) Ballad of a Small Player/Berger
5) The Secret Agent/Filho
6) Nouvelle Vague/Linklater
7) Tuner/Roher
8) Bugonia/Lanthimos
9) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
10) The History of Sound/Hermanus
Other possibilities: Blue Moon, The Young Mother's Home, The Love That Remains, Jay Kelly, Left-Handed Girl, Die My Love, Anemone, Pressure, The American Revolution, Ghost Elephants, Bucking Fastard, La Grazia, A House of Dynamite, Orphan, Hand of Dante, Cover-Up.
Information that will further illuminate what could be at TFF #52:
*Waiting to hear from Toronto as they likely have other titles to add over the next few weeks.
*Waiting to see Venice's schedule.
*Waiting for the rest of New York's lineup.
All in all, I'm feeling pretty good about where this week's "Bets" are.
THIS YEAR'S BARBERA "MYSTERY"
Over the last couple of years Venice Film Fest chief Alberto Barbera has, unwittingly or not, let slip bits and pieces of information that have given away a couple of Telluride titles. Tuesday as he was introducing the Venice lineup we referenced Josh Safdies' Marty Supreme saying that (it) "will screen in the autumn".
Now, we know that Marty Supreme is set for a Dec. 25th release which isn't "autumn". Does that mean Barbera has, again revealed a Telluride play? My guess is no. I think New York seems more likely. I;m not saying that the reference precludes Telluride but NYFF makes more sense as the film is set primarily in NYC and the "autumn" reference matches up with New York's Sept. 26-Oct. 13 time frame better than TFF just two days after the Venetian kickoff.
From distributor Mubi yesterday, a poster for Oliver Hermanus' The History of Sound, currently sitting at #10 on this week's Ten Bets. Word is that a trailer is coming today. I'll try to add that to this post before the end of the day should it be forthcoming. Here's the poster:
MAYBE SOME TV?
@Movielo10274449 posted on X yesterday the notion that Matthew Heineman's The Savant could play Telluride and it makes some sense.
Last year the fest programmed Apple TV+'s and Alfonso Cuaron's Disclaimer starring Cate Blanchett (currently Emmy nommed for the role) and Kevin Kline. The fest ran all seven of the series episodes.
Could this happen again this year with The Savant which is also from Apple+?
Maybe Jessica Chastain who stars in the series will be in town? Please...
You bet your buns! Heineman, as @Movielo10274449 points out has screened his last two projects at T-ride. 2022's Retrograde and 2023's fantastic American Symphony.
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Neon has come on strong over the last decade as a Telluride staple. Their first appearance at TFF came in 2016 as the distributor of Errol Morris's The B-Side. In the years since then Neon has placed 18 other films at TFF for an impressive average of 2.4 films per year. In that time some other notable titles under the Neon banner that have appeared at TFF include: Last year's Best Picture winner Anora, 2020 Oscar Best Picture winner Parasite, Anatomy of a Fall and Flee.
This year, Neon made the biggest splash at Cannes acquiring a bunch of properties. Consequently they have a deep roster of films that could play at TFF. I have at least six films (all of which were Cannes selections in various categories) that could come from Neon to Telluride. Here's what we know about each of them. They're arranged from what I feel is most likely to least likely. Films that are on my most recent "Ten Bets" list are indicated with +. Individuals that have been past attendees of TFF are indicated with *.
It Was Just an Accident+. Director Jafar Panahi* (strictly speaking Panahi didn't attend with his film Taxi). Stars: Vahid Mobasseri, Mariam Afshari. Won this year's Palme d'Or at Cannes. Release date: TBD. IMDb description:
A small mishap triggers a chain reaction of ever-growing problems.
I believe that should It Was Just a Simple Accident play Telluride it would be the first time in the festival's history to program the Palme d'Or winner for three years running.
Sentimental Value+. Director: Joachim Trier. Stars: Renate Reinsve, Stellan Skarsgard*, Elle Fanning. Won this year's Grand Prize at Cannes. Release date: Nov. 7th. IMDb description:
An intimate exploration of family, memories, and the reconciliatory power of art.
Sentimental Value finished Cannes with the second best critical rating of any film playing that fest with an 8.04 cumulative rating (out of 10) from Cannes-Ratings.org. In contrast Plame d'Or winner It Was Just a Simple Accident was 7th best with a cumulative of 7.76.
The Secret Agent+. Director: Kleber Mendonça Filho. Stars: Wagner Moura (won Best Actor at Cannes), Maria Fernanda Cândido. The film won the FIPRESCI Prize at Cannes. Release date: TBD. IMDb description:
In 1977, a technology expert flees from a mysterious past and returns to his hometown of Recife in search of peace. He soon realizes that the city is far from being the refuge he seeks.
The Secret Agent was also well regarded critically at Cannes with a cumulative rating of 7.00 which was the 30th best among all films that played at that Fest.
Sirat. Director: Oliver Laxe. Stars: Sergi López, Bruno Núñez Arjona. The film won the Jury Prize at Cannes. Release date: TBD. IMDb description:
A father, accompanied by his son, goes looking for his missing daughter in North Africa.
This is another film with a great critical reception at Cannes. It had a 7.87 cumulative rating which was the 5th best of the entire fest. It could well move onto next Thursday's second iteration of MTFB's Ten Bets for TFF #52.
The ultimate and comprehensive documentary film about the exceptional writer George Orwell.
Orwell: 2+2=5 had the 22nd best critical rating from Cannes ratings.org at 7.13.
Alpha. Director: Julia Ducournau. Stars: Tahar Rahim*, Emma Mackey. The film played in Palme d'Or competition at Cannes. Release date: Sometime in October. IMDb description:
Alpha, 13, is a troubled teenager who lives alone with her mother. Their world comes crashing down the day she comes home from school with a tattoo on her arm.
Alpha's critical reception at Cannes was tough. A 47 on Metacritic and a 50 on Rotten Tomatoes.
The assessment of chances for TFF #52:
It Was Just an Accident 70%
Sentimental Value 60%
The Secret Agent 50%
Sirat 50%
Orwell 2+2=5 45%
Alpha 20%
SPC AND NUREMBURG
Sony Pictures Classics might not be done for TFF #52 yet. SPC announced on Wednesday last week that they had acquired the James Vanderbilt's Nuremburg and plan to release the film on Nov. 7th. The film stars Russell Crowe as Herman Goring and Rami Malek as the U.S. psychiatrist charged with determining if the Nazi's are mentally competent to stand trial. Michael Shannon also stars. In addition to directing Vanderbilt also adapted the screenplay from the book The Nazi and the Psychiatrist.
.m not sold on that
According to the SPC press release the timing of the release coincides with 80th anniversary of the post-war trials held in Nuremburg, Germany, It also just happens to be in the Awards season sweet spot.
So, retrofit the SPC speculation from last week and add Nuremburg to the list of TFF possibilities. I'm not sold on the notion that it does play Telluride but I also don't think it's impossible. Mark at at a current 35% chance to make the TFF cut.
Jordan Ruimy has updated his Venice speculation list as of last Thursday. Of note is his addition of Guillermo Del Toro's Frankenstein and Agnieszka Holland's Franz to the list. Both could also be potentials for T-ride although Ruimy also writes that:
"I’m also hearing that Guillermo del Toro’s long-awaited “Frankenstein” has locked its TIFF premiere..."
Notice that Ruimy doesn't mention what that premiere status is for Toronto but...
Here's Jordan's updated list with what I think has Telluride potential indicated with ***.
BTW...add Kathryn Bigelow's A House of Dynamite to the Netflix list from a couple of weeks back. I'm putting its TFF chances at 30%.
SPRINGSTEEN ON WHITE...OH, AND THE TRAILER AGAIN
I have high hopes that Searchlight brings the Bruce Springsteen biopic Deliver Me from Nowhere to TFF #52. Right now it and Del Toro's Frankenstein are my two big "hope fors".
That said, we know director Scott Cooper has been at Telluride a number of times both with and without projects. We know that the film is being distributed by frequent TFF player Searchlight and we know that the film has a fest friendly release date of Oct. 24th. So, I got that going for me.
This Past week Springsteen talked to The Hollywood Reporter about the film and the actor Jeremy Allen White who plays The Boss in the film. Here's that interview.
And, by the by, we had lots of trouble with linking to the trailer for Deliver Me from Nowhere last week...so here we go again:
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Welp...here it is. 2025's first "Ten Bets" attempt to suss out films that might make the TFF #52 lineup. I do a good deal of research and study to come up with these lists and even then...this first one usually does well to have six titles on it that actually make it to Telluride.
This was my first Ten Bets for last year (with the films that actually made it to TFF #51 in Bold):
1) Anora/Sean Baker
2) The Seed of the Scared Fig/Mohammad Rasoulof
3) Emilia Perez/Jacques Audiard
4) The Room Next Door/Pedro Almodovar
5) Bird/Andrea Arnold
6) Maria/Pablo Larrain
7) Oh, Canada/Paul Schrader
8) The End/Joshua Oppenheimer
9) Queer/Luca Guadagnino
10) Conclave/Edward Berger
So seven out of the Ten...a better than average year.
Here's the track record for the first Ten Bets for the last
The puts the average at 5.8 correct guesses per year.
So, with that caveat, here is your first Ten Bets for TFF #52:
1) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
2) Blue Moon/Linklater
3) Bugonia/Lanthimos
4) The Love That Remains/Palmason
5) Sentimental Value/Trier
6) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardennes
7) The Secret Agent/Filho
8) Hamnet/Zhao
9) Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper
10) The Ballad of a Small Player/Berger
Let's see what happens.
DELIVER ME FROM NOWHERE HAS A TRAILER AND POSTER
Here's the poster:
Scott Cooper's Bruce Springsteen biopic, Deliver Me from Nowhere, dropped a trailer for the film. Jeremy Allen White plays "The Boss" with Jeremy Strong as Springsteen's manager Jon Landau. The film reportedly focuses on the period in Springsteen's life when he was working on his Nebraska album.
I have high hopes for the film and also hopes for it to be in Telluride Labor Day. I hope its appearance at #9 on the first Ten Bets list doesn't jinx its chances.
Here's the trailer from YouTube:
DIE MY LOVE HAS A DATE
Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel reports that Lynne Ramsay's Die, My Love will have a wide release on Nov. 7th. That date puts it in place for possible screenings at Telluride, Toronto, Venice, New York and/or London. Ruimy suggests Toronto is a real possibility.
Ramsay was at Telluride in 2011 with We Need to Talk about Kevin. Prior to that she screened Morvern Callar at T-ride in 2002. So, chances aren't impossible for a Telluride run.
The film screened at Cannes back in May to mixed reviews but generally universal praise for Jennifer Lawrence's performance. The Nov. 7th date sets up a reasonable time frame for an awards push for her specifically.
We are proud to unveil our 2025 Festival poster, created by celebrated cartoonist and graphic novelist Daniel Clowes.
Daniel Clowes is one of the most influential and acclaimed figures in contemporary graphic storytelling. Best known for his seminal comic-book series Eightball and the cult classic graphic novel Ghost World, Clowes has defined the landscape of alternative comics for over three decades. His body of work includes Like a Velvet Glove Cast in Iron, David Boring, Ice Haven, The Death-Ray, Wilson, and Patience. His most recent book, Monica, was named by Kirkus Reviews as one of the 100 greatest works of fiction of the 21st century.
Clowes received an Academy Award nomination (with Terry Zwigoff) for the screenplay adaptation of Ghost World and has been recognized with a PEN America Literary Award, as well as numerous Eisner and Harvey Awards. His work has been exhibited in a solo retrospective, Modern Cartoonist, at The Museum of Contemporary Art in Chicago and other venues. His illustrations have appeared on movie posters, album covers, multiple covers of The New Yorker, and even a Hermès scarf. He lives in Oakland, California with his wife Erika.
Clowes shared, “I’m thankful to the Telluride Film Festival for giving me the opportunity to focus my energy on something unassailably positive and noble in these dystopic times.”
Festival director Julie Huntsinger adds, “We’ve long admired Dan’s unparalleled ability to tell emotional, layered stories through both image and language. His poster for this year’s festival is a rich and brilliant capsule of that – a perfect reflection of his depth and wit through the lens of cinema and all that it can offer.”
50 FALL FILM POSSIBILITIES
Ezra Cubero writing for Silver Screen Express has posted his annual set of speculation about which films might go where as regards Telluride, Venice, Toronto and New York. It's an interesting take with some surprise.
I culled the post and began by creating a list of the films that Cubero thinks have some shot at the TFF #52 lineup. It's a lengthy list which follows below (with director listed to the right).
After the Hunt/Guadagnino
Anemone/Day-Lewis
At the Sea/Mundruczo
Blue Moon/Linklater*
Bugonia/Lanthimos
Christy Martin Biopic/Michod
Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper
Eleanor the Great/Johansson
Hamnet/Zhao
Hedda/DaCosta
The History of Sound/Hermanus
It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
Jay Kelly/Baumbach
Kiss of the Spiderwoman/Condon*
Late Fame/Jones
A Magnificent Life/Chomet
Marty Supreme/J. Safdie
The Mastermind/Reichardt
Nouvelle Vague/Linklater
Rental Family/Hikari
The Rivals of Amziah King/Patterson**
Roofman/Cianfrance
The Secret Agent/Filho
Sentimental Value/Trier
Sirat/Laxe
The Smashing Machine/B. Safdie
Sound of Falling/Schiliniski
* indicates a premiere at Sundance
** indictaes a premiere at South by Southwest
Notable films that Cubero does not mention as a Telluride possibility at all:
Alpha/Ducournau
The Ballad of a Small Player/Berger
Die My Love/Ramsay
Father Mother Sister Brother/Jarmusch
Frankenstein/Del Toro
One Battle After Another/PT Anderson
And one last note. Cubero doesn't pick Bradley Cooper's Is This Thing On for Telluride but does write about it saying: "Telluride might not happen." Which isn't a total rejection of its chances.
Cubero was pretty solid on this last year hitting 13 films he listed as "Yes" or "Maybe" for Telluride that actually made the lineup. His post last year went up on June 24th.
Indiewire has kept track of sales during and after the 78th Cannes Film Fest and I have taken a look at buyers/titles that do not have an announced release date or do have a release date post-Telluride. I also focused on distributors that have had a fairly serious presence at TFF over the past few years.
Here's the rundown beginning with Neon, which went on a buying spree.
Neon (7): It Was Just an Accident, Sirat, The Secret Agent, Alpha, Orwell 2+2=5, Sentimental Value, Splitsville.
Mubi (5): Sound of Falling, Die My Love, The History of Sound, The Mastermind, My Father's Shadow.
Sony Pictures Classics (3): The President's Cake, Eleanor the Great, A Magnificent Life.
Janus Films (3): Magellan, The Love That Remains, Resurrection.
We've entered the Post-Cannes/Pre-Venice phase of the countdown to Telluride. One of the things to look at not that Cannes is over and while we wait for Venice to announce titles and then their schedule is what distributors acquired films that screened at Cannes. Distributors that have had a substantial relationship with Telluride and that do snag new titles during or post-Cannes can spotlight a film that makes the trip to T-ride. The biggest players this year were Neon and Mubi, both of which could position any of their newly acquired films as a TFF #52 offering.
Neon picked up seven films in total. Three of them have been floating around my Telluride radar: A Simple Accident (Palme d'Or winner), Splitsville and Orwell: 2+2+5. Neon also bought Grand Prix winner Sentimental Value in addition to Sirat (Jury Prize), The Secret Agent (Best Director, Best Actor and Alpha.
At this point I don't think its a matter of whether Neon will have films at Telluride, the question instead is how many will it be?
Mubi was almost as active as they acquired five titles. Three of those have been on my screen: Die, My Love, The Mastermind and The History of Sound. In addition to those, Mubi has also picked up Sound of Falling and My Father's Shadow.
Long time Telluride presence Sony Pictures Classics has Eleanor the Great, The Magnificent Life of Marcel Pagnol and The President's Cake. Any or all of these may be on your TFF #52 menu.
Other acquisitions of note include:
Netflix: Nouvelle Vague
Janus: Ressurection
Apple TV+: Bono: Stories of Surrender
A24: Pillion
DOWN THE STRETCH...
As May comes to a close, MTFB really starts to get cranked up in a serious way regarding the potential TFF lineup. The run from June to Labor Day will include weekly looks as distributors that often have films at T-ride and I'll try to assess the TFF chances of some of the titles each outfit has.
Additionally, the weekly list of "Ten Bets" will begin in three weeks. As frequent readers know, I'll start out with 10 guesses and that list will actually expand right up to the day before Telluride announces the TFF #52 lineup (expected Thursday, Aug. 28th.). We also expect Venice to announce its lineup at the end of July and their schedule a couple of weeks into August. And, as has become the norm, Toronto's announcements (last year the first big drop of titles came in the third week of July.
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Here is a look at the final critical reaction from Cannes regarding 13 films that I have my eye on regarding a possible play at Telluride:
From the Palme Competition category (on a 10 point scale):
The Mastermind: 6.53
Die, My Love: 6.51
Young Mothers: 6.33
The History of Sound: 4.88
A Simple Accident: 7.08
From Un Certain Regard:
Eleanor the Great: 5.58
The Chronology of Water: 6.19
Out of Competition:
Splitsville: 5.65
Orwell: 2+2=5: 7.13
The Disappearance of Joseph Mengele: 5.96
The Wave: 5.88
The Love That Remains (Palmason) 7.72
The Magnificent Life of Marcel Pagnol 6.18
Looking at the Palme competitors, the top five currently are:
1) Sirat (Laxe) 7.90
2) Nouvelle Vague (Linklater) 7.22
3) Sentimental Value (Trier) 7.02
4) The Secret Agent (Filho) 7.01
5) Resurrection (Gan) 7.00
FROM SCREEN DAILY
Palme Competition top five (on a 4 point scale)
1) Two Prosecutors 3.1 (Tie)
1) It Was Just an Accident ( A Simple Accident) 3.1 (Tie)
3) The Secret Agent 2.8 (Tie)
3) Sound of Falling 2.8 (Tie)
And tied with a 2.7: Nouvelle Vague, Romeria, Sentimental Value, Young Mothers and The Mastermind.
FROM IONCINEMA
Palme Competition top five ( on a five point scale):
1) Sirat 3.9
2) The Secret Agent 3.6
3) It Was Just an Accident (A Simple Accident) 3.5
4) Sentimental Value 3.4 (tie)
4) Young Mothers 3.4 (tie)
CANNES WINNERS...ANYONE COMING TO TELLURIDE?
From Erik Anderson and Awards Watch...the big winners from Cannes:
MAIN COMPETITION
Palme d’Or: It Was Just an Accident by Jafar Panahi
Gran Prize: Sentimental Value by Joachim Trier
Jury Prize: Sirât by Oliver Laxe and Sound of Falling by Mascha Schilinski
Best Director: Kleber Mendonça Filho for The Secret Agent
Best Actor: Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent
Best Actress: Nadia Melliti for The Little Sister
Best Screenplay: Jean-Pierre and Luc Dardenne for Jeues Mères
Special Prize: Resurrection by Bi Gan
A CERTAIN REGARD
Un Certain Regard Prize: The Mysterious Gaze of the Flamingo by Diego Céspedes
Jury Prize: A Poet by Simón Mesa Soto
Best Director: Tarzan and Arab Nasser for Once Upon a Time in Gaza
Best Actor: Frank Dillane for Urchin
Best Actress: Cleo Diára for I Only Rest in the Storm
Best Screenplay: Harry Lighton for Pillion
So, if you're looking at what happened at Cannes to predict what might play TFF #52 the awards are important and the critical reaction is important...also important is the distribution deals made at the fest. The key moves were made by Neon and Mubi.
At the conclusion of Cannes Neon held the distribution rights for: It Was Just an Accident (Palme winner), Sentimental Value (Gran Prix winner), Sirat (Jury Prize), The Secret Agent (Best Direction), Alpha, Splitsville and Orwell 2+2=5. That's seven films that Neon will be juggling as we head into Fall Film Fest Season.
Mubi post-Cannes has: Die, My Love, The Sound of Falling (Jury Prize), The History of Sound and The Mastermind.
Analysis: It's tempting to think that Neon might have its biggest presence at Telluride ever. That actually almost seems inevitable. All factors taken together would seem to point to Jafar Panahi's Palme winner as the most logical first possibility. The second most likely might be Splitsville. After that, it's pick 'em. I'm kind of feeling Sentimental Value, Orwell and Sirat...but that's just a gut feeling.
Mubi's best bets right now seem to be Die, My Love and The Mastermind. The History of Sound may be off the TFF list of possibilities as a result of a relatively dismal critical reception.
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We're past the half way mark at the 78th Cannes Film festival and here's the check-in on the latest critical response to the films screening there.
Here is a look from regarding 13 films at Cannes that I have my eye on regarding a possible play at Telluride:
From the Palme Competition category (on a 10 point scale):
The Mastermind: 6.16
Die, My Love: 6.52
Young Mothers: 5.75
The History of Sound: 5.09
A Simple Accident: 6.91
From Un Certain Regard:
Eleanor the Great: 5.81
The Chronology of Water: 6.17
Out of Competition:
Splitsville: 6.36
Orwell: 2+2=5: 7.13
The Disappearance of Joseph Mengele: 5.68
The Wave: 5.84
The Love That Remains (Palmason) 7.73
The Magnificent Life of Marcel Pagnol 6.22
Looking at the Palme competitors, the top five currently are:
1) Sirat (Laxe) 7.90
2) Nouvelle Vague (Linklater) 7.25
3) The Secret Agent (Filho) 7.02
4) Resurrection (Gan) 7.00
5) Sentimental Value (Trier) 6.94
FROM SCREEN DAILY
Palme Competition top five (on a 4 point scale)
1) Two Prosecutors 3.1 (Tie)
1) It Was Just an Accident ( A Simple Accident) 3.1 (Tie)
3) The Secret Agent 2.8 (Tie)
3) Sound of Falling 2.8 (Tie)
3) Sentimental Value 2.8 (Tie)
FROM IONCINEMA
Palme Competition top five ( on a five point scale):
1) Sirat 3.9
2) The Secret Agent 3.6
3) It Was Just an Accident (A Simple Accident) 3.4
4) Nouvelle Vague 3.3
5) Sound of Falling 3.2
AND NOW...VENICE?
As Cannes gets close to its conclusion, some attention has begun to focus on what films will play Venice. As frequent readers will recall, inclusion at Venice doesn't necessarily point to a film being selected for Telluride nor does it signal that it won't be. The key to reading the Venetian tea leaves as they relate to Telluride actually comes when Venice releases its schedule. Early screenings in Venice leave the door open for a Venice-Telluride double play.
The point is that paying attention to Venice's choices can still be instructive. To that end, Screen Daily posted on Monday a piece dedicated to possible Venice choices. They include (in the order that the film appears in the piece):
The Smashing Machine/B. Safdie
The Ballad of a Small Player/E. Berger
Hamnet/C. Zhao
Bugonia/Y. Lanthimos
After the Hunt/L. Guadagnino
Father, Mother, Sister, Brother/J. Jarmusch
Rosebush Pruning/K. Ainouz
Sacrifice/R. Gavras
Couture/A. Winocour
Orphan/L. Nemes
No Other Choice/P. Chan-wook
Anemone/R. Day-Lewis
Yellow Letters/I. Catak
Call Me Queen/E. Atef
Whitetail/N. Leopold
A Prayer for the Dying/D. Van Dusen
Chocobar/L. Martel
My guess as to the best Telluride possibilities from this list:
So, I was running down Bradley Cooper's Is This Thing On? on IMDb (the app) a couple of days ago and noticed in the section labeled "Related User Lists" and the first list listed there was labeled "Telluride Possibilities". Like this:
So naturally, I was intrigued. I clicked on "pj_withers" list and discovered that MTFB was the reference:
So my next thought was...from this list of 30 films, what others, in addition to Is This Thing On?, does this list come up on? All of them?
Turns out...no, not all of them. But it does for 11 of them.
Is This Thing On?
Hamnet
Eleanor the Great
After the Hunt
Anemone
Megadoc
The Love That Remains
It Was Just an Accident
The Magnificent Life of Marcel Pagnol
Bucking Fastard
David Lynch: Hollywood Enigma
I'm not sure why these 11 are linked to this "Related User List" the other 19 are not. I'm not sure who "pj_withers" is but I think this is kind of cool.
More on Monday including what won the Palme d'Or at Cannes.
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