Ten Bets for TFF #53-Vol.5 / Who's Got What? Distributors: Mubi / Is Behemoth! Coming? / Next Best Picture Guesses Telluride (and other fall fests)

TEN BETS FOR TFF #53-VOL.5

The countdown to TFF #53 grows shorter and shorter.  

Here's the fifth installment of MTFB's Ten Bets, the weekly guess at what films make the Telluride lineup.  We start with a reminder of last week's bets:

Artificial

Bucking Fastard

Club Kid

Coward

The Debut

Elsinore

Fatherland

La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)

Minotaur

Paper Tiger

Other possibilities: A Long Winter, Fjord, Yellow Letters and The Story of Documentary Film.

If you read last Monday's post you'll recall that Neon has reversed course on Luca Guadagnino's Artificial and, at least for now, are avowing that the film "isn't likely to go down the standard festival route"  which Deadline points out does not preclude some festival appearance.  Heck, Deadline even says they think it will likely will be at some festival.  As a matter of fact, Deadline's language doesn't shut the door on Artificial at TFF but rather, sounds like Telluride might be the most likely landing spot:

"That doesn’t mean it won’t pop up at a festival in some form (we bet it will), but it won’t have the traditional launch with the bells and whistles of a red carpet, press conference, junkets, etc."

So, I'm moving Artificial to the list of possibles and Andrew Haigh's A Long Winter back into the Ten Bets:

Bucking Fastard

Club Kid

Coward

The Debut

Elsinore

A Long Winter

Fatherland

La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)

Minotaur

Paper Tiger

Other possibilities: Artificial, Fjord, Yellow Letters and The Story of Documentary Film.

A couple of other notes... 

For Ten Bets #6 next week I'll begin to actually list the films in order of likelihood to play...

And we should get some news from Toronto which should be informative.

WHO'S GOT WHAT? DISTRIBUTORS: MUBI

MTFB continues its look at the film distribution companies that have had the largest profiles at the Telluride Film Festival over the past five years in an effort to, perhaps, set the table for films that could be headed to TFF #53.  Up to this point for 2026 we have examined: Netflix, Neon, Sony Pictures Classics, Focus Features and A24. Each of those outfits have averaged two or more films at TFF in that time span.

Today we look at Mubi, which has had nine films at Telluride since 2021 but whose footprint has increased over the last couple of years.  Additionally Mubi could potentially provide more films to TFF #53 than any other distributor.

Here's Mubi's history over the last five years:

2021: Unclenching the Fists.

2022: No films.

2023: Fallen Leaves, High & Low: John Galliano, Tehachapi.

2024: Bird.

2025: The History of Sound, King Hamlet, La Grazia, Mastermind.

And these are the films in the Mubi warehouse we think might be TFF possibilities (with their chance of making the lineup):

Coward 70%

Fatherland 65%

A Long Winter 55%

Minotaur 50%

Rose 40%

Hope 25%

NEXT BEST PICTURE GUESSES TELLIRIDE (AND OTHER FALL FESTS)

Matt Neglia and his crew at Next Best Picture have posted a massive list of films for each of the four major "fall" film fests: Telluride, Venice, Toronto and New York.  Looking at his T-ride list is intriguing,  Here it is with films on the MTFB Ten Bets (and possibilities) list indicated with ***.

All Of A Sudden (Ryusuki Hamaguchi)

American Doctor (Poh Si Teng)

Artificial (Luca Guadagnino)***

Behemoth! (Tony Gilroy)

Bitter Christmas (Pedro Almodóvar)

Bucking Fastard (Werner Herzog)***

Club Kid (Jordan Firstman)***

Coward (Lukas Dhont)***

The Debut (Jesse Eisenberg)***

Elsinore (Simon Stone)***

Fatherland (Paweł Pawlikowski)***

Fjord (Cristian Mungiu)***

Iron Boy (Louis Clichy)

Josephine (Beth de Araújo)

La Bola Negra (Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi)***

La Gradiva (Marine Atlan)

A Long Winter (Andrew Haigh)***

Minotaur (Andrey Zvyagintsev)***

Mouse (Kelly O’Sullivan and Alex Thompson)

The Only Living Pick Pocket In New York (Noah Segan)

Primetime (Lance Oppenheim)

Rehearsals for a Revolution (Pegah Ahangarani)

Rose (Markus Schleinzer)

Saturn Return (Greg Kwedar)

The Unknown (Arthur Harari)

Yellow Letters (İlker Çatak)***

Couple of notes:

Films on the NBP list that are not currently a "Bet" by MTFB but are on the radar are: Behemoth!, Bitter Christmas, La Gradiva, Primetime, Rose and Saturn Return.

Josephine and The Only Living Pickpocket in New York were Sundance selections which doesn't rule them out for Telluride, but it's uncommon for a film to screen both places.

Next Best Pictures' complete set of lists is linked here.

https://nextbestpicture.com/predicting-the-2026-fall-film-festival-lineups-for-venice-telluride-tiff-nyff/

IS BEHEMOTH! COMING?

Lot's of buzz early this week with first look photos and a trailer for Tony Gilroy's Behemoth!  The film stars Pedro Pascal and is described at IMDb like this:

"Follows a musician from a family of musicians who returns to Los Angeles. A love letter to the music of the movies and the people who make it."

Behemoth! is being distributed by Searchlight and there is a good deal of speculation that it will be making a fall film fest run though whether that would include Telluride is very uncertain at this point.

Here's an image from the Vanity Fair article:

In addition, Searchlight dropped a trailer on Tuesday.  Here that is from YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7T64gVlcc1I&t=99s

Searchlight hasn't yet announced a release date from the film.

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Distributor Monday #8: Mubi / World of Reel Confirms and Reveals Titles for TFF #52 / Another Television Possibility?

DISTRIBUTION MONDAY #8: MUBI

Unlike the previous seven weeks, Mubi comes to Telluride with a much shorter resume only having initially screened a film at the fest in 2021.  Overall Mubi has screened five films in the last four fests.

2021: Unclenching the Fists

2022: No film

2023: Fallen Leaves, High and Low-John Galliano, Tehachapi

2024: Bird

This year Mubi is loaded with potential TFF film after having gone on a buying spree at Cannes.

To start off, let's note that the Jim Jarmusch film, Mother, Father, Sister, Brother is not Telluride bound.  This Mubi distributed film is going to North American Premiere as the Centerpiece of the New York Film Festival...so no T-ride play.  But here's the rundown of those Mubi films that could play TFF #52 with an * indicating when a participant has previously attended Telluride.

The first of which we covered last Monday as Focus Features also has a piece of its U.S. distribution.  Here that info is again:

The History of Sound. Dir. Oliver Hermanus*.  Stars: Paul Mescal, Chris Cooper, Josh O'Connell.  Release date: Sept. 12th..  IMDb description:

Two young men during World War I set out to record the lives, voices and music of their American countrymen.

Mescal and O'Connor are two of the hottest tickets around right now.  I had been pretty high on its chances of a Telluride play what with the distributor and Oliver Hermanus having previously having Living at TFF #49.

La Grazia (Grace).  Dir. Paolo Sorrentino*.  Stars: Toni Servillo, Anna Ferzetti.  Release date: TBD.  IMDb description: 

A love story set in Italy.

Seriously, that's the description.

La Grazia is opening the Venice Festival on Aug. 27th giving it plenty of time to make the jump to Colorado.

The Mastermind.  Dir. Kelly Reichardt.*  Stars: Josh O'Connor, John Magaro*, Bill Camp. The Mastermind played at Cannes in the Plame competition. The film had a fair critical average from Cannes-Ratings.org with a 6.29 our of 10 average.  Release date: Oct.17th.  IMDb description:

In 1970, Mooney and two cohorts wander into a museum in broad daylight and steal four paintings. When holding onto the art proves more difficult than stealing them, Mooney is relegated to a life on the run.

Reichardt was last at Telluride in 2019 with First Cow.

Die, My Love.  Dir, Lynne Ramsay*.  Stars: Jennifer Lawrence, Robert Pattinson, Nick Nolte, Sissy Spacek*.  Also played in competition at Cannes and had a critical rating just above that of The Mastermind with a 6.53.  Release date: Nov. 7th.  IMDb description:

In a remote forgotten rural area, a mother struggles to maintain her sanity as she battles with psychosis.

Lynne Ramsay was last in Telluride with We Need to Talk Abut Kevin in 2011.

My Father's Shadow.  Dir: Ankinola Davies.  Stars: Sope Dirisu, Godwin Egbo.  This film was in the Un Certain Regard section at Cannes where critics responded strongly giving it a 7.47 average, the 12th best of all the films that were included in the composite ratings.  Release date: TBD.  IMDb description:

Two young brothers explore Lagos with their estranged father during the 1993 Nigerian election crisis, witnessing both the city's magnitude and their father's daily struggles as political unrest threatens their journey home.

I have to believe that Mubi lands at least one of these titles. Probably more than one.  The two "name" directors, Ramsay and Reichardt are the familiar possibilities but My Father's Shadow and Sound of Falling were more of the critical darlings at Cannes.  As to La Grazia, I'm still skeptical it opens Venice and then travels.

Chances:

My Father's Shadow 45%

Die, My Love 40%

The Mastermind 40%

La Grazia 30%

WORLD OF REEL CONFIRMS AND REVEAL TITLES FOR TFF #52

Over the weekend World of Reel's Jordan Ruimy posted some updated Telluride news.  The big reveals in the post were the seeming confirmations for Scott Cooper's Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere starring Jeremy Allen White and Jeremy Strong, Noah Baumbach's Jay Kelly starring George Clooney, Adam Sandler and Laura Dern and The History of Sound starring Josh O'Connor and Paul Mescal.

Ruimy also confirms films we were already pretty sure locks: Hamnet, The Ballad of a Small Player, Tuner, It Was Just an Accident, Sentimental Value and Nouvelle Vague.

Ruimy also confirms films that will NOT play Telluride including: The House of Dynamite, The Smashing Machine, Frankenstein, Mother Father Sister Brother and Marty Supreme.

And finally he's uncertain about whether Bugonia will or won't go the Telluride after Venice.  I'm still cautiously optimistic.

Here's the link to the complete story.

And, here from YouTube, is the trailer for The History of Sound:

 

ANOTHER TELEVISION POSSIBILTY?

Last Thursday I posted a speculation about Apple TV+ returning to Telluride this year with The Savant starring Jessica Chastain.  It seemed to me that after Disclaimer last year, that kind of situation might be repeated.

Then over the weekend I found out that Vince Gilligan's new series is set to be released by Apple TV+ on November 7th.  The series is titled Pluribus and stars Rhea Seehorn, who, of course, was Kim Wexler for Gilligan for six seasons on Better Call Saul.  

IMDb describes the series this way:

Follows the most miserable person on Earth and the one who must save the world from happiness.

So maybe this might be a candidate if TFF decides they want to partner up with Apple TV+ again this year.

PS...TIDBIT...Focus Features has dated Ronan Day-Lewis's Anemone for Oct. 3rd.  So...maybe?

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As We Head Into June / Ken Burns' Next Big Thing / Maybe we Can Join The Serkis?

AS WE HEAD INTO JUNE

As I have mentioned, we're only a few days away from beginning a couple of summer traditions here at MTFB.  Starting Next week I'll begin running down each of the distributors that have been the most common players with films at Telluride.  I'll take a look at the films from each outfit that are the most probable TFF choices and try to assess each film's chances of actually going to TFF #52.

As a way of setting the table for that, here's a quick look at which distributors we're talking about.  First, a little methodology.  I looked at each year going back to 2015 to gather the info.  I did leave out the covid year cancelled TFF despite the fest having released a lineup because it was surely not complete at the time the decision was made to cancel that year.

That said, here are the eight distributors I'll be looking at over the next few weeks based on the number of films they have screened at Telluride since 2015:

Netflix: 34 (3.8/yr.)

Sony Pictures Classics (SPC): 31 (3.4/yr.)

Neon: 19 (2.1/yr.)

A24: 16 (1.8/yr.)

(Fox) Searchlight: 14 (1.6/yr.)

Amazon/MGM: 12 (1.3/yr.)

Focus Features: 10 (1.1/yr.)

Mubi: 5***

***I include Mubi on the list with its small number of five films because it's a late-comer to The SHOW having screened all 5 within the last four fests for an average of 1.25/yr.

Some interesting tidbits...

Obviously, Netflix has screened the most films since 2015 (its first appearance at TFF came that year) but SPC is only three behind and both distribs are the only outfits that have had films screen every year of this survey. 

Searchlight only missed one year in this time frame in 2016.

Three of these distributors only missed two years:

Neon in 2017and 2015.

A24 in 2024 and 2018.

Focus Features in 2019 and 2016.

Monday we'll start with Netflix and look at what films they have and what might play TFF #52.  Subsequently, we'll look at the other distributors each week in the order of which house has played the most at T-ride since 2015.

KEN BURNS' NEXT BIG THING

TFF Board of Governors member Ken Burns has begun promoting his next big project which is a documentary look at American Revolution as the nation begins to hit the 250 year milestones that will lead up to the nation's Semiquincentennial or Bisesquicentennial coming on July 4th, 2026.

The six part 12 hour series will air on PBS beginning on Nov. 16th.  Normally it would be a no-brainer to think that at least some portion of the series, if not all six parts, would play at TFF...but... as a part of the roll out for it they've already begun a nationwide tour which has/will include screenings of at least some of the doc.  Those began last march in Richmond, VA. and will continue through Oct. 9th in Washington D.C.  The press release says that additional dates are forthcoming.

One wonders if those presentations will dissuade TFF from screening any of it.  It is of note that there is a gap between a July 17th presentation in L.A. and sept. 20th presentation in Saratoga, NY.

Here's a link to its PBS landing page including a small clip from the doc.

And here's a link to the official press release.

All things considered, I still think it's likely that at least some segments will be screened at TFF #52.

MAYBE WE CAN JOIN THE SERKIS?

Animal Farm still via World of Reel

Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel reports that Andy Serkis' animated adaptation of George Orwell's classic Animal Farm will premiere at the Annecy International Animation Film Festival.  That fest is set to run June 8-14.

I have thought for awhile that this could be a TFF choice and its inclusion for Annecy is in no way a TFF disqualifier.  As a matter of fact I could see it playing along with Raoul Peck's Documentary about Orwell: Orwell: 2+2=5 which just screened at the Cannes fest last month as a kind of TFF double bill.

Just a thought.

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It's All About Who Got What / Down the Stretch...

IT'S ALL ABUT WHO GOT WHAT

We've entered the Post-Cannes/Pre-Venice phase of the countdown to Telluride.  One of the things to look at not that Cannes is over and while we wait for Venice to announce titles and then their schedule is what distributors acquired films that screened at Cannes.  Distributors that have had a substantial relationship with Telluride and that do snag new titles during or post-Cannes can spotlight a film that makes the trip to T-ride.  The biggest players this year were Neon and Mubi, both of which could position any of their newly acquired films as a TFF #52 offering.

Neon picked up seven films in total.  Three of them have been floating around my Telluride radar: A Simple Accident (Palme d'Or winner), Splitsville and Orwell: 2+2+5.  Neon also bought Grand Prix winner Sentimental Value in addition to Sirat (Jury Prize), The Secret Agent (Best Director, Best Actor and Alpha.

At this point I don't think its a matter of whether Neon will have films at Telluride, the question instead is how many will it be?

Mubi was almost as active as they acquired five titles.  Three of those have been on my screen: Die, My Love, The Mastermind and The History of Sound.  In addition to those, Mubi has also picked up Sound of Falling and My Father's Shadow.

Long time Telluride presence Sony Pictures Classics has Eleanor the Great, The Magnificent Life of Marcel Pagnol and The President's Cake.  Any or all of these may be on your TFF #52 menu.

Other acquisitions of note include:

Netflix: Nouvelle Vague

Janus: Ressurection

Apple TV+: Bono: Stories of Surrender

A24: Pillion

DOWN THE STRETCH...

As May comes to a close, MTFB really starts to get cranked up in a serious way regarding the potential TFF lineup.  The run from June to Labor Day will include weekly looks as distributors that often have films at T-ride and I'll try to assess the TFF chances of some of the titles each outfit has.

Additionally, the weekly list of "Ten Bets" will begin in three weeks.  As frequent readers know, I'll start out with 10 guesses and that list will actually expand right up to the day before Telluride announces the TFF #52 lineup (expected Thursday, Aug. 28th.).  We also expect Venice to announce its lineup at the end of July and their schedule a couple of weeks into August.  And, as has become the norm, Toronto's announcements (last year the first big drop of titles came in the third week of July.

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