Ten Bets for TFF #53-Vol.5 / Who's Got What? Distributors: Mubi / Is Behemoth! Coming? / Next Best Picture Guesses Telluride (and other fall fests)

TEN BETS FOR TFF #53-VOL.5

The countdown to TFF #53 grows shorter and shorter.  

Here's the fifth installment of MTFB's Ten Bets, the weekly guess at what films make the Telluride lineup.  We start with a reminder of last week's bets:

Artificial

Bucking Fastard

Club Kid

Coward

The Debut

Elsinore

Fatherland

La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)

Minotaur

Paper Tiger

Other possibilities: A Long Winter, Fjord, Yellow Letters and The Story of Documentary Film.

If you read last Monday's post you'll recall that Neon has reversed course on Luca Guadagnino's Artificial and, at least for now, are avowing that the film "isn't likely to go down the standard festival route"  which Deadline points out does not preclude some festival appearance.  Heck, Deadline even says they think it will likely will be at some festival.  As a matter of fact, Deadline's language doesn't shut the door on Artificial at TFF but rather, sounds like Telluride might be the most likely landing spot:

"That doesn’t mean it won’t pop up at a festival in some form (we bet it will), but it won’t have the traditional launch with the bells and whistles of a red carpet, press conference, junkets, etc."

So, I'm moving Artificial to the list of possibles and Andrew Haigh's A Long Winter back into the Ten Bets:

Bucking Fastard

Club Kid

Coward

The Debut

Elsinore

A Long Winter

Fatherland

La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)

Minotaur

Paper Tiger

Other possibilities: Artificial, Fjord, Yellow Letters and The Story of Documentary Film.

A couple of other notes... 

For Ten Bets #6 next week I'll begin to actually list the films in order of likelihood to play...

And we should get some news from Toronto which should be informative.

WHO'S GOT WHAT? DISTRIBUTORS: MUBI

MTFB continues its look at the film distribution companies that have had the largest profiles at the Telluride Film Festival over the past five years in an effort to, perhaps, set the table for films that could be headed to TFF #53.  Up to this point for 2026 we have examined: Netflix, Neon, Sony Pictures Classics, Focus Features and A24. Each of those outfits have averaged two or more films at TFF in that time span.

Today we look at Mubi, which has had nine films at Telluride since 2021 but whose footprint has increased over the last couple of years.  Additionally Mubi could potentially provide more films to TFF #53 than any other distributor.

Here's Mubi's history over the last five years:

2021: Unclenching the Fists.

2022: No films.

2023: Fallen Leaves, High & Low: John Galliano, Tehachapi.

2024: Bird.

2025: The History of Sound, King Hamlet, La Grazia, Mastermind.

And these are the films in the Mubi warehouse we think might be TFF possibilities (with their chance of making the lineup):

Coward 70%

Fatherland 65%

A Long Winter 55%

Minotaur 50%

Rose 40%

Hope 25%

NEXT BEST PICTURE GUESSES TELLIRIDE (AND OTHER FALL FESTS)

Matt Neglia and his crew at Next Best Picture have posted a massive list of films for each of the four major "fall" film fests: Telluride, Venice, Toronto and New York.  Looking at his T-ride list is intriguing,  Here it is with films on the MTFB Ten Bets (and possibilities) list indicated with ***.

All Of A Sudden (Ryusuki Hamaguchi)

American Doctor (Poh Si Teng)

Artificial (Luca Guadagnino)***

Behemoth! (Tony Gilroy)

Bitter Christmas (Pedro Almodóvar)

Bucking Fastard (Werner Herzog)***

Club Kid (Jordan Firstman)***

Coward (Lukas Dhont)***

The Debut (Jesse Eisenberg)***

Elsinore (Simon Stone)***

Fatherland (Paweł Pawlikowski)***

Fjord (Cristian Mungiu)***

Iron Boy (Louis Clichy)

Josephine (Beth de Araújo)

La Bola Negra (Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi)***

La Gradiva (Marine Atlan)

A Long Winter (Andrew Haigh)***

Minotaur (Andrey Zvyagintsev)***

Mouse (Kelly O’Sullivan and Alex Thompson)

The Only Living Pick Pocket In New York (Noah Segan)

Primetime (Lance Oppenheim)

Rehearsals for a Revolution (Pegah Ahangarani)

Rose (Markus Schleinzer)

Saturn Return (Greg Kwedar)

The Unknown (Arthur Harari)

Yellow Letters (İlker Çatak)***

Couple of notes:

Films on the NBP list that are not currently a "Bet" by MTFB but are on the radar are: Behemoth!, Bitter Christmas, La Gradiva, Primetime, Rose and Saturn Return.

Josephine and The Only Living Pickpocket in New York were Sundance selections which doesn't rule them out for Telluride, but it's uncommon for a film to screen both places.

Next Best Pictures' complete set of lists is linked here.

https://nextbestpicture.com/predicting-the-2026-fall-film-festival-lineups-for-venice-telluride-tiff-nyff/

IS BEHEMOTH! COMING?

Lot's of buzz early this week with first look photos and a trailer for Tony Gilroy's Behemoth!  The film stars Pedro Pascal and is described at IMDb like this:

"Follows a musician from a family of musicians who returns to Los Angeles. A love letter to the music of the movies and the people who make it."

Behemoth! is being distributed by Searchlight and there is a good deal of speculation that it will be making a fall film fest run though whether that would include Telluride is very uncertain at this point.

Here's an image from the Vanity Fair article:

In addition, Searchlight dropped a trailer on Tuesday.  Here that is from YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7T64gVlcc1I&t=99s

Searchlight hasn't yet announced a release date from the film.

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Venice Thoughts / Neglia on Cannes and Telluride / A Look at Del Toro's Frankenstein / Interesting Comment to the Blog

VENICE THOUGHTS

Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel posted a list of  "20 hot festival titles this fall" on Saturday.  The context for the list of films is within Ruimy's discussion of the Venice festival and the number of possible American films that could make that lineup.  Many of them are on my TFF #52 "watch list".  

Here's Ruimy's list with what I think are the most serious Telluride possibilities indicated with ***.

After the Hunt (Luca Guadagnino)***

One Battle After Another (Paul Thomas Anderson)

Untitled WH Thriller (Kathryn Bigelow)

Jay Kelly (Noah Baumbach)***

Caught Stealing (Darren Aronofsky)

Bugonia (Yorgos Lanthimos)***

The Smashing Machine (Benny Safdie)

The Way of the Wind (Terrence Malick)

Father Mother Brother Sister (Jim Jarmusch)

The Ballad of A Small Player (Edward Berger)***

Hamnet (Chloe Zhao)***

Frankenstein (Guillermo del Toro)***

A Big Bold Beautiful Journey (Kogonada)

Roofman (Derek Cianfrance)

At the Sea (Kornél Mundruczó)

The Drama (Kristofer Borgli)

The Lost Bus (Paul Greengrass)

Deliver Me From Nowhere (Scott Cooper)***

Huntington (John Patton Ford)

Is This Thing On? (Bradley Cooper)***

Here's the link to Jordan's post.

NEGLIA ON CANNES AND TELLURIDE

Matt Neglia, who heads up Next Best Picture, published via "X" on Friday a list of Cannes films that he thinks could also play Telluride.  It looks like this:

The Chronology Of Water

Die My Love

It Was Just An Accident

Left Handed Girl

The Love That Remains

The Mastermind

My Father’s Shadow

Nouvelle Vague

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Urchin

Young Mothers

 I have frequently mentioned Chronology of Water, Die My Love, It Was Just an Accident (or A Simple Accident), The Love That Remains, The Mastermind, and Young Mothers.  

Post Cannes I have warmed to the notion of Sentimental Value and The Secret Agent for T-ride.

I'm back and forth on Nouvelle Vague.  Linklater has, to the best of my knowledge, never been to The SHOW but with both Nouvelle Vague and Blue Moon...I could see a Linklater double bill and a possible tribute.  

Other films that Matt names, Left Handed Girl, The Father's Shadow and Urchin...we'll see.

I think there could be other Cannes players that make the trip.  Sirat and Eleanor the Great come to mind.  Remember, though, Matt was on the ground in France and probably has a better sense of what's going on as a result.

A LOOK AT DEL TORO'S FRANKENSTEIN

Netflix had what they call TUDUM.  It's their annual sort CinemaCon thing.  Anyway, as a part of that there was a presentation for Guillermo Del Toro's upcoming imagining of Frankenstein.  The film stars Oscar Isaac (as Victor Frankenstein) who was at the TUDUM presentation, as well as Christoph Waltz and Jacob Elordi and Mia Goth.  Netflix dropped a trailer for the film as a part of the event and then very quickly put it up online.  Here it is from YouTube:

I'm thinking Frankenstein could make a visit to TFF owing to Del Toro's success there in 2017 with The Shape of Water and Netflix's usually robust presence at The SHOW.  Del Toro presented The Devil's Backbone at Telluride in 2001.

INTERESTING COMMENT TO THE BLOG

Over the weekend some anonymous person posted a comment to last Thursday's MTFB.  It really caught my attention because it's a poem about me and the blog.  And whoever this is knows their stuff.  I approved the comment and you can find it on the 5/29/25 post.  I've also re-posted it here:

"In Oklahoma classrooms he was once all the rage, A master of drama, debate and stage. Now each Labor Day he ascends to the peak, Where cinephiles gather and the big stars all sneak. With a blog as his weapon, a hunch as his guide, He guesses the films they try hard to hide. Reads gossip like scripture, decodes all the lines.

The SHOW bosses in Berkeley grit teeth in dismay, As his summer "BEST BETS" always steal the day. But Michael just shrugs, lets critics all chatter-- To him it's just the puzzle that truly must matter. So let's raise a toast, with blog posts in hand, To the Teacher who does what few understand."

Thanks to the unknown author.

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Coming Attractions: What Could Play TFF #52? / Trailer for One to One: John & Yoko / Spinal Tap???

 COMING ATTRACTIONS: WHAT COULD PLAY TFF #52?

In today's post I continue to take a look at early Oscar predictions as a way of searching for possible TFF titles for this year.  Today we're looking at Daniel Howat's take from Next Best Picture.  From the ten films NBP has as predicted as Best Picture nominees, these might be the ones with the most Telluride potential:

After the Hunt/Amazon-MGM/Luca Guadagnino

Bugonia/Focus/Yorgos Lanthimos

The Ballad of a Small Player/Edward Berger

Deliver Me from Nowhere/Scott Cooper

Die, My Love/No Distributor/Lynne Ramsay

Marty Supreme/A24/Josh Safdie

And among the other films NBP assesses for Oscar potential:

Anemone/Focus/Ronan Day-Lewis

The Bride/Warners/Maggie Gyllenhaal

Frankenstein/Netflix/Guillermo Del Toro

Hamnet/Focus/Chloe Zhao

Hedda/Amazon-MGM/Nia DiCosta

The History of Sound/Mubi/Oliver Hermanus

Jay Kelly/Netflix/Noah Baumbach

The complete list from Next Best Picture is linked here.

TRAILER FOR ONE TO ONE: JOHN & YOKO

From directors Kevin Macdonald and Sam Rice-Edwards here is the recently released trailer for TFF #51 documentary One to One: John & Yoko.

The IMBd description:

Set in 1972 New York, this documentary explores John and Yoko's world amid a turbulent era. Centered on the One to One charity concert for special needs children, it features unseen archives, home movies, and restored footage.

The film is set to open in the U.S. on April 18th.

SPINAL TAP???

Many readers know, I'm sure, that a sequel to the classic This Is Spinal Tap has been in the works for some time.  Now word comes that the film has been picked by Bleecker Street for distribution and a release date has been set.  Look for the film in theaters on Sept. 12th.

The combination of the distributor, which has had its share of films play over the years at T-ride, and the weekend date immediately following the close of TFF #52 allows for a possible TFF screening.

Do I have a lot of confidence in this possibility?   Right now...No.  But it's logistically possible and really an intriguing thought.

Here's the story from Indiewire.

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Next Best Picture's Early Oscar Line and TFF / Daddio Has a Date / Interviews and Profiles

 NEXT BEST PICTURE'S EARLY OSCAR LINE AND TFF

I'm continuing my current project of scouring early Oscar prognostications for possible titles that might pop up at the 51st Telluride Film Festival.  Today's source is Daniel Howat from Next Best Picture.  For this source I looked at Best Picture Predictions first and then for other possibilities from the acting, directing and screenplay categories.

So here are the films from those predictions that seem to me to be the most Telluride-ific.

The Actor-Dir: Duke Johnson

Blitz-Dir: Steve McQueen

Conclave-Dir: Edward Berger

Long Day's Journey Into Night"- Dir: Jonathan Kent

Maria- Dir: Pablo Larrain

The Piano Lesson- Dir: Malcolm Washington

Queer- Dir: Luca Guadagnino

Juror #2- Dir: Clint Eastwood

Mother Mary- Dir: David Lowery

Anora- Dir: Sean Baker

The Apprentice- Dir: Ali Abbasi

Bird- Dir: Andrea Arnold

The Collaboration- Dir: Kwame Kwei-Armah

Emilia Perez- Dir: Jacques Audiard

Megalopolis- Dir: Francis Ford Coppola

The Nickel Boys- Dir: RaMell Ross

Polaris- Dir: Lynne Ramsay

The complete early predictions from NBP are linked here.

DADDIO HAS A DATE

Dakota Johnson at the post-screening Q+A for Daddio at Telluride

Indiewire reports that Sony Pictures Classics has dated the release for Christ Hall's Daddio. The film will hit theaters on June 28th.  Dakota Johnson and Sean Penn star.

The IMDb description:

"A woman taking a cab ride from JFK engages in a conversation with the taxi driver about the important relationships in their lives."

I caught Daddio at telluride and was quite taken with it.

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

Director and writer Christy hall and Produce Ro Donnelly for Daddio from Indieiwire.

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Ten Bets for TFF #50 / Neglia's List / Trailers for Challengers and Priscilla

 TEN BETS FOR TFF #50

Today's the day...the countdown to the lineup announcement for the 50th Telluride Film Festival on this blog begins in earnest today with 2023's first edition of MTFB's "Ten Bets".

Regular readers will know that this is my first "real" stab at predicting what will be playing at Telluride over the Labor Day weekend.  I'll subsequently adjust and expand the list as the summer goes on.  Serious indicators occur with announcements about what will be screening at the Toronto and Venice fests and, to a lesser degree Venice's scheduling and the New York Film Fest lineup.

The final Ten Bets for 2023 will be the Monday post on August 28th.

Again, as dedicated readers of this space are aware, MTFB on average lands between 5-6 films on this initial list that end up in the lineup when it is revealed.  To wit, last year this was the list of films that comprised the first Ten Bets for TFF #49.  Films that actually screened at TFF are in Bold.

1) Bardo/Inarritu

2) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love

3) The Son/Zeller

4) Close/Dhont

5) Women Talking/Polley

6) Aftersun/Wells

7) Showing Up/Reichardt

8) White Noise/Baumbach

9) Broker/Kore-eda

10) She Said/M. Schrader

6/10

Here was the 2021 first Ten Bets:

1) The Power of the Dog/Campion

2) Muhammad Ali/Burns, Burns and McMahon

3) The Card Counter/Schrader

4) Nightmare Alley/Del Toro

5) The Velvet Underground/Haynes

6) Bergman Island/Hansen-Love

7) Cow/Arnold

8) A Hero/Farhadi

9) Blonde/Dominik

10) The Story of Looking/Cousins

8/10

Going back to the advent of my Ten Bets approach, here was the track record from 2011-2019:

2011: 8/10
2012: 5/10
2013: 6/10
2014: 7/10
2015: 4/10
2016: 3/10
2017: 7/10
2018: 5/10

2019: 4/10

So, with all of that as prelude, here is MTFB's first Ten Bets for films to play at The SHOW in 2023:

1) The Holdovers/Payne

2) May December/Haynes

3) Nyad/Chin and Vasarhelyi

4) Monster/Kore-eda

5) Strangers/Haigh

6) El Conde/Larrain

7) Poor Things/Lanthimos

8) Anatomy of a Fall/Triet

9) The American Buffalo/Burns

10) The End/Oppenheimer

Other possibilities: Freud's Last Session/Brown, The Teachers' Lounge/Catak, The Zone of Ineterst/Glazer, Saltburn/Fennell, The Royal Hotel/Green, Rustin/Wolfe and Shirley/Ridley.

There you go.  Now let's see how this all unfolds over the next ten weeks.

NEGLIA'S LIST

Matt Neglia, who runs Next Best Picture, posted a terrific piece this week about what film fests had hosted the World Premiere's of Best Picture Oscar nominees.  Neglia focused on the nominees since AMPAS adopted the expanded Best Picture field in 2009.

Here's his list for TFF (with best Picture winners in Bold.):

Telluride Film Festival

2022: Women Talking

2021: Belfast & King Richard

2020: None

2019: Ford v Ferrari

2018: None

2017: Darkest Hour, Lady Bird

2016: Moonlight

2015: Room

2014: The Imitation Game

2013: 12 Years A Slave

2012: Argo

2011: The Descendants

2010: 127 Hours, The King’s Speech

2009: Up In The Air

Neglia also includes analysis for Sundance, Cannes, Berlin, SXSW, Venice, Toronto, New York and AFI.

His compilation shows the following statistics for the number of Best Picture World Premieres at these fests:

Venice Film Festival: 21

Sundance Film Festival: 15

Telluride Film Festival: 15

Cannes Film Festival: 14

Toronto Film Festival: 12

New York Film Festival: 8

AFI Fest: 3

Berlin Film Festival: 1

SXSW: 1

So, since 2009 TFF has had the second most World Premieres of Best Picture nominees trailing only Venice and tied with Sundance.  However, what Matt doesn't look is the North American Premieres that happen at Telluride (and Toronto and New York for that matter).  If you factor those in, then Telluride's place in the fest firmament re: Oscar BP nominations is more pronounced.

Here's the rundown for each year where TFF screened the North American premiere (usually) of films that were Oscar nominated for Best Picture after having their World Premiere at an earlier fest:

2022: TAR (Venice)

2021: The Power of the Dog (Venice)

2020: Nomadland (Venice), The Father (Sundance)

2019: Parasite (Cannes), Marriage Story (Venice)

2018: The Favourite (Venice), Roma (Venice)

2017: The Shape of Water (Venice)

2016: Arrival (Venice), La La Land (Venice), Manchester by the Sea (Sundance)

2015: Spotlight (Venice)

2014: Birdman (Venice)

2013: Nebraska (Cannes), Gravity (Venice)

2012: Amour (Cannes)

2011: The Artist (Cannes)

2010: Black Swan (Venice)

2009: An Education (Sundance)

So all told, 35 films have played Telluride since 2009 and gone on to a Best Picture nomination.  Neglia points out that during that same time period 35 films were Best Picture nominated without any festival debut at all.

But Toronto is a huge player.  Yes, they have only World Premiered 12 films from 2009-2022 that have been BP nominated BUT...they have also screened a whopping 41 films that were not World Premieres at TIFF but did receive a Best Picture nomination.

Five each from Sundance and Cannes.  17 from Venice and 14 of the Telluride 15 World Premieres went on to Toronto.  The only film not of Telluride's 15 that didn't go on to TIFF was King Richard.

Nine Best Picture Oscar winners in the 2009-22 time frame played both Telluride and Toronto.  Here are those films:

2021: Nomadland

2020: Parasite

2018: The Shape of Water

2017: Moonlight

2016: Spotlight

2014: 12 Years a Slave

2013: Argo

2012: The Artist

2011: The King's Speech

There's a lot more to digest from Matt's post which is linked here.

TRAILERS FOR CHALLENGERS AND PRISCILLA

We have new trailers this week for a couple of films that are on the periphery of Telluride possibilities.  

Luca Guadagnino could return to TFF this year with his story of a three person love affair.  Challengers features, Zendaya, Mike Faist and Josh O'Connor in a film set in the world of professional tennis.  It is being distributed by United Artists Releasing. The film's release date is set for Sept. 15th.  Guadagnino's Bones and All as well as Salvatore: Shoemaker of Dreams were both screened at TFF #49.  

Both Alex Billington at First Showing.net and Steven Prusakowski at Awards Radar are suggesting that Telluride is realistic stop for the film.

Here's the trailer from YouTube:

And also this week, the trailer for Sofia Coppola's Priscilla which tells the story of the woman who married and divorced Elvis Presley.  It stars Cailee Spaeny as Priscilla with Jacob Elordi as the King.

Coppola hasn't screened a film at Telluride since 2003's Lost in Translation but with it being TFF's 50th edition and the Coppola family having strong ties to the history of Telluride, I can see her returning with this film. Priscilla does not yet have an announced release date.  Distribution is being handled by A24.

Again, from YouTube:

Both Alex Billington at First Showing.net and Steven Prusakowski at Awards Radar are suggesting that Telluride is realistic stop for the film 

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Cannes Final Critical Analysis / Neglia's Cannes-Telluride Analysis / Miyazaki-Not This Time?

CANNES FINAL CRITICAL ANALYSIS

After a serious on-again/off-again connectivity issue I finally have the last look at the critical compilation for the films of Cannes #76 from Reini Urabn.  Urban's collection of critical responses is massive.  You can find that here.

I wrote a couple of weeks ago that Telluride normally programs an average of four films from the top 25 of Urban's compilation.  Additionally, the crossover between the fests overall is 7-8 films each year.

This year seven films that I have had my eye on as potential plays at TFF #50 finished in Reini's top 25:

2) The Zone of Interest (8.03) (2nd only to Killers of the Flower Moon)

5) Perfect Days (7.76)

8) Monster (7.57)

12) Fallen Leaves (7.41)

14) La Chimera (7.35)

17) May/December (7.28)

23) The Book of Solutions (7.14)

Other films that I've had on the TFF #50 watch list that finished below the top 25:

41) Occupied City (6.68)

55) Anselm (6.40)

66) The Old Oak (6.11)

93) Strange Way of Life (5.58)

97) The New boy (5.46)

And films that I haven't had my eye on but that Cannes put on my radar:

4) Anatomy of a Fall (7.79) (Palme d'Or winner)

11) Robot Dreams (7.43)

26) The Goldman Case (7.05)

27) How to Have Sex (7.03) (Un Certain Regard winner)

40) The Settlers 6.72

75) The Delinquents (5.96)

NEGLIA'S CANNES/TELLURIDE ANALYSIS

Next Best Picture's Matt Neglia posted a list of a number of films that played at the 76th Cannes Film Festival over the past two weeks that he feels could be in play to be selected for the TFF #50 lineup.  from Matt's Twitter feed:

From Matt's list I would certainly concur re: La Chimera, May/December, Monster and The Zone of Interest.

I'd tend to agree based on the critical reception that Palme d'Or winner Anatomy of a Fall and The Goldman case might be in play as well.  The others?  Maybe.

Other Cannes films that I think may be in play either from my pre-Cannes "feel" or because of their reception/buzz at Cannes include: Fallen Leaves, Perfect Days, Anselm, Strange Way of Life, The Book of Solutions, The Delinquents, The Settlers and maybe even the animated Robot Dreams.

As always, here is my plea to Paramount/Apple, Scorsese...who or whatever, to bring Killers of the Flower Moon to Telluride.

MIYAZAKI-NOT THIS TIME?

I had some thought that Hayao Miyazaki's How Do You Live? might make an appearance at Telluride.  He has had a significant presence at TFF over the years with Princess Mononoke, Spirited Away and The Wind Rises all having screened at TFF.  However, Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel reported yesterday that any festival screening of the new film is unlikely writing, in part:

"A few months ago, I was told Cannes boss Thierry Frémaux tried as hard as he could to get Hayao Miyazaki’s “How Do You Live”  in competition, but it seems as though Miyazaki just doesn’t want to do film festivals at all. Not even Venice.

Miyazaki and Studio Ghibli are perfectly content in having their latest film screen to the Japanese public before the rest of the world, just as they have done with almost every other film of his." 

Though the reporting is not absolute on the issue, Rumiy later in the post writes that skipping Venice is a "high possibility".

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Oscar #96 Spec and TFF #50 / Maybe Guadagnino...And Maybe Not

 OSCAR #96 AND TFF #50

As I have mentioned over the last couple of weeks, with the end of the Oscar Parade for another year, we can begin to seriously beginning to look at possibilities for the lineup for TFF #50.  One of the ways to do that is to gather information from pundits about what they suspect will be major films for the rest of the year.  To that end, I have begun collecting that data.  

Next Best Picture has up an early Oscar speculative list that includes many intriguing possibilities.  I have culled that list down to these  films based on the film's director and their history with Telluride or lack thereof, the film's distributor and their TFF history and the release dates for those that have been announced.  Here, in alphabetical order are the films from the NBP list that seem to me to have the best shot at a spot at TFF #50.  I have listed by title, director, distributor or producing studio and release date if known.

Blitz/Steve McQueen/Apple/TBD

The Color Purple/Blitz Bazawule/Warners/12/20/23

Fingernails/Christos Nikous/Apple/TBD

Foe/Garth Davis/Amazon/TBD

The Holdovers/Alexander Payne/Focus Features/11/10/23

The Killer/David Fincher/Netflix/11/10/23

Killers of the Flower Moon/Martin Scorsese/Apple/TBD

Lee/Ellem Kuras/No U.S. Distrib at present/TBD

Maestro/Bradley Cooper/Netflix/TBD

May December/Todd Haynes/No U.S. Distrib at present/TBD

Next Goal Wins/Taika Waititi/Searchlight/9/22/23

Nyad/J. Chin & E. Vasarhelyi/Netflix/TBD

Poor Things/Yorgos Lanthimos/Searchlight/TBD

Priscilla/Sofia Coppola/A24/TBD

Rustin/George C. Wolfe/Netflix/TBD

Saltburn/Emerald Fennell/Amazon/TBD

Shirley/John Ridley/Netflix/TBD

Untitled Bob Marley Film/Reinaldo Marcus Green/Paramount/1/12/24

The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar/Wes Anderson/Netflix/TBD

And on the "Other Potential Contenders" list:

Nightbitch/Marielle Heller/Searchlight/Hulu/TBD

The complete rundown from next Best Picture is linked here.

MAYBE GUADAGNINO...AND MAYBE NOT

Luca Guadagnino has had a couple of good TFF years with Bones and All and Salvatore: Shoemaker of Dreams appearing last year and his producing project The Truffle Hunters screening at TFF in 2020.  His latest directorial project is the tennis drama Challengers starring Zendaya and Mike Faist and comes from MGM/UA Releasing (Amazon).  I have ignored it as the film had an announced release date of August 11th.  

That appears to have changed in the past few days.  First notice I saw of it came from Erik Anderson's (Awards Watch) Twitter account:

As you can see, he was reporting the date had been changed to Sept. 15th, which, as you can see from the Tweet, puts it in a window to possibly play Venice and/or T-ride.  It could also conceivably screen at Toronto during its opening days.  The Sept. 15th date means no New York Fest.

Adding some fuel to the fire late Sunday was reporting from Jordan Ruimy and World of Reel suggesting that Challengers has secured a Venice bid.  That reporting is here.  

Ruimy's post also mentions that there are rumors that Guadagnino may be Venice's jury president this year which would almost certainly take it off the table for a TFF spot.  

Stay tuned.

Challenger's IMDb Profile appears to confirm the new date.  Here's the link to that.

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MTFB Oscar Take: Picture and Direction / Critic's Choice Doc Noms Include TFF / New Trailer for Close / Matt Neglia's Oscar Picks / Visitations

MTFB OSCAR TAKE: UPDATE: BEST PICTURE AND DIRECTION

In today's post I am updating Oscar predictions for Best Picture and Best Direction which were last posted on Oct. 6th.  TFF #49 films are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) The Fabelmans (1)

2) The Banshees of Inisherin (4)

3) Women Talking (2)

4) Everything Everywhere All at Once (5)

5) Top Gun: Maverick (6)

6) TAR (7)

7) Babylon (3) 

8) Elvis (8)

9) Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (9)

10) She Said (10)

11) The Woman King (11)empire of

12) Empire of Light (New)

Dropping out: Avatar: The Way of Water

Ought to think about: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On and Armageddon Time

BEST DIRECTION

1) Steven Spielberg/The Fabelmans (1)

2) Sarah Polley/Women Talking (2)

3) Todd Field/TAR (3)

4) Martin McDonagh/The Banshees of Inisherin (6)

5) The Daniels/EEAAO (5)

6) Damien Chazelle/Babylon (4)

7) Sam Mendes/Empire of Light (New)

Dropping out: Gina Prince-Blythwood/The Woman King

CRITIC'S CHOICE DOC NOMS INCLUDE TFF

The Critic's Choice Association announced its nominees for excellence in Documentaries on Monday and Telluride films fared well.  A dozen films between TFF #48 and TFF #49 earned 28 nominations.  Ryan White's Good Night Oppy led all TFF docs with six nominations, one behind the overall leader in nominations: Fire of Love.

Oppy, which was very buzzy throughout the Labor Day weekend, was nominated for: best Documentary, Direction, Editing, Score, Narration and Best Science/Nature documentary.

Other TFF films nominated include:

Three Minutes: A Lengthening (TFF #48): Best First Doc, Editing, Narration, Best Archival Doc, Best Historical Doc

The Automat (TFF #48): Best Doc, Best First Doc, Score, Best Historical Doc

Cow (TFF #48): Best First Doc, Cinematography, Best Science/Nature Doc

The U.S. and the Holocaust (TFF #49): Best Historical Doc. Best Doc Series

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (TFF #49): Best Direction and Best Political Doc

Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, A Journey, A Song (TFF #48): Best Music Doc

If These Walls Could Talk (TFF #49): Best Music Doc

Retrograde (TFF #49): Best Political Doc

Salvatore: Shoemaker of Dreams (TFF #49): Best Biographical Doc

Sr. (TFF #49): Best Biographical Doc

The Return of Tanya Tucker (TFF #49): Best Music Doc

Variety has the complete list of all nominees here.

NEW TRAILER FOR CLOSE

The Match Factory dropped a new trailer for Lukas Dhont's Close on Monday.  Belgium selected the film as its entry for the International Feature Oscar last month. 

The description from IMDb:

"The intense friendship between two thirteen-year old boys Leo and Remi suddenly gets disrupted. Struggling to understand what has happened, Léo approaches Sophie, Rémi's mother. "Close" is a film about friendship and responsibility."

And here is the new trailer form YouTube:

MATT NEGLIA'S OSCAR PICKS AND TFF #49

I am continuing my series wherein I check the Oscar predictions of a number of experts and how they have situated films that played at TFF #49.  Previously I have passed along predictions from Variety's Clayton Davis, The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg and Awards Watch's Erik Anderson and Entertainment Weekly's Dave Karger.  Today I'm highlighting Matt Neglia who founded Next Best Picture.

Matt is currently predicting all Oscar categories except the Shorts.  Here's what he has Telluride films being nominated for:

Women Talking (6): Best Picture, Supporting Actress (Buckley), Supporting Actress (Foy), Supporting Actor (Whishaw), Adapted Screenplay and Original Score.

TAR (3): Best Direction, Actress (Blanchett), Original Screenplay

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (1): Best Documentary

Armageddon Time (1): Supporting Actor (Strong)

Bardo (1): International Feature

Empire of Light (1): Actress (Colman)

Living (1): Actor (Nighy)

TFF #49 total nominations: 14

VISITATIONS

Interview with TAR's Nina Hoss from Variety.

Interview with Armageddon Time's Anne Hathaway from Elle

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Ten Bets #5 / Toronto Films-An Evolving List / Next Best Picture Guesses Telluride / Women Talking Where?

 TEN BETS #5

Here's your weekly look at my take on films that I think are the TFF #49 choices. First, a refresher for last week's Ten Bets plus other possibilities:

1) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love

2) The Son/Zeller

3) Close/Dhont

4) Women Talking/Polley

5) Aftersun/Wells

6) Bardo/Inarritu

7) TAR/Fields

8) Armageddon Time/Gray

9) The Pale Blue Eye/Cooper

10) The Master Gardener/P. Schrader

Others Possibilities: Broker/Kore-eda, Showing Up/Reichardt, Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, Holy Spider/Abbasi,  The Forger/Peren, Babylon/Chazelle, She Said/M. Schrader, Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, The U.S. and the Holocaust/Burns, The Wonder/Lelio

And here are your latest Ten Bets:

 

1) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love

2) The Son/Zeller

3) Close/Dhont

4) Armageddon Time/Gray

5) Bardo/Inarritu

6) TAR/Fields

7) Women Talking/Polley

8) Aftersun/Wells

9) The Pale Blue Eye/Cooper

10) The Master Gardener/P. Schrader

Others Possibilities: Broker/Kore-eda, Showing Up/Reichardt, Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, Holy Spider/Abbasi,  The Forger/Peren, She Said/M. Schrader, Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, The U.S. and the Holocaust/Burns, The Wonder/Lelio, Blonde/Dominik.

Notes: Armageddon Time moves up as do Bardo and TAR.  Women Talking  drops a bit based on a World of Reel story you will find below.

I've moved Babylon off the list of possibilities for the time being though it could slide back on.  I've put Andrew Dominik's Blonde back on based on persistent buzz that the film will screen at Venice.

TORONTO FILMS - AN EVOLVING LIST

TIFF is using a drip-drip-drip method of announcing World Premieres that they haven't used before.  As that list grows, I will be posting so we know which films are at TIFF and won't be at TFF#49. Those announced to date are:

Green Onions: A Knives Out Mystery

Brother

Bros

On the Come Up

The Woman King

My Policeman

and Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel says The Greatest Beer Run Ever will also be a TIFF World Premiere.

NEXT BEST PICTURE GUESSES TELLURIDE (and Venice and Toronto)

Following their weekly podcast that focused on the Big Three fall film fests. Matt Neglia and the Next Best Picture crew posted a written version of their guesses nd predictions for what films are going where.  Here that is with films that I have on the Ten Bets list and/or as possibilities indicates with ***

TELLURIDE FILM FESTIVAL

Aftersun (Dir. Charlotte Wells)***

​Armageddon Time (Dir. James Gray)***

Bardo (Dir. Alejandro González Iñárritu)***

Broker (Dir. Hirokazu Kore-eda)***

Close (Dir. Lukas Dhont)***

Decision To Leave (Dir. Park Chan-wook)

EO (Dir. Jerzy Skolimowski)

Holy Spider (Dir. Ali Abbasi)***

The Master Gardener (Dir. Paul Schrader)***

One Fine Morning (Dir. Mia Hansen-Løve)***

​The Pale Blue Eye (Dir. Scott Cooper) - WORLD PREMIERE***

See How They Run (Dir. Tom George) - WORLD PREMIERE

She Said (Dir. Maria Schrader) - WORLD PREMIERE***

Showing Up (Dir. Kelly Reichardt)***

The Son (Dir. Florian Zeller) - WORLD PREMIERE***

Tár (Dir. Todd Field)***

Tori and Lokita (Dir. The Dardenne Brothers)***

Triangle Of Sadness (Dir. Ruben Östlund)

The Whale (Dir. Darren Aronofsky)

​Women Talking (Dir. Sarah Polley) - WORLD PREMIERE***

As you can see, there is extensive overlap between the NBP list and my Ten Bets.  NBP has five films listed that I don't and any of the five wouldn't be a real shocker if included: Decision to Leave, EO, See How They Run, Triangle of Sadness or The Whale.

Here's what Matt and the NBP folks have as Venice premieres that would jump the Atlantic to play at TFF a couple of days later:

Bardo, The Master Gardener, TAR and The Whale.  Another note...NBP has Andrew Dominik's Blonde playing both Venice and Toronto but not T-ride.  So...to anyone with any juice at Netflix or within the programmers at TFF...hear my plea that Blonde makes a stop in Colorado between the two.

Here is the complete NBP post.

WOMEN TALKING WHERE?

Another Jordan Ruimy/World of Reel post of interest this week was the buzz about which fall fest was going to land Sarah Polley's Women Talking as a World Premiere.  I have felt relatively confident that it would play Telluride as Polley has made the trip to the San Juans previously but who knows?

Ruimy suggests that Toronto wants it very badly as a WP and should Polley and distributor United Artists/Orion go that way...no TFF #49.  If Venice lands it, TFF #49 remains a possibility.  Of course Polley's last feature length film, the doc Stories We Tell, did the Venice/Telluride dance in 2012 but the distributor there was Roadside Attractions.

Stay tuned.

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WEDNESDAY MTFB SPECIAL: The FINAL 25 Bets for TFF #45 / A New Film to Consider / Surveying the Landscape

WEDNESDAY MTFB SPECIAL: THE FINAL 25 BETS FOR TFF #45

Here we are the day before the actual reveal of the 2018 Telluride Film Fest lineup.  Consequently, here is my final list of 25 films I expect will make the list when it's announced tomorrow morning:


1) The Favourite
2) The Old Man and the Gun***
3) Roma
4) First Man
5) Destroyer***
6) The Front Runner***
7) Boy Erased***
8) Can You Ever Forgive Me?***
9) Shoplifters
10) Cold War
11) The Other Side of the Wind
12) White Boy Rick***
13) Dogman
14) Peterloo
15) Non-Fiction
16) Meeting Gorbachev
17) Free Solo
18) Graves Without a Name
19) Birds of Passage
20) Girl
21) Watergate
22) Angels Are Made of Light
23) The White Crow***
24) They'll Love Me When I'm Dead
25) Ghost Fleet

***designates film's first screening should it play Telluride (and I'm still relatively confident there will be at least one more)

Other films still in play:

The Biggest Little Farm, The Man Who Killed Don Quixote, On the Basis of Sex, He Dreams of Giants, Nothing Like a Dame, The Aspern Papers, The Great Buster.

I'LL HAVE THE LINEUP POSTED TOMORROW AS SOON AS POSSIBLE... EXPECTING IT BETWEEN 9:00 AND 10:00 EDT


A NEW FILM TO CONSIDER

Peter Bogdanovich photo via IMDb

MTFB reader Dr. Jack Gindi dropped me an email a couple of days ago mentioning a film that he felt I should think about as a TFF #45 possibility.  That film: Peter Bogdanovich's The Great Buster.  It's a documentary about the great film comedian Buster Keaton.

Admittedly, I knew nothing of the film but told Jack I'd give a look and after a little review I can report that he could be onto something.

Largely because it's Bogdanovich, who, as the good doctor pointed out, will probably be in Telluride this week with the crew that's expected to land with the Orson Welles' final film The Other Side of the Wind.  Additionally, Bogdanovich has remained a member of the fests Board of Advisers.  Also, the film is being handles by the Cohen Media Group which has had a good history with T-ride (last year they had The Insult and Faces Places at TFF #44).

So, all things considered...The Great Buster sounds like something we should seriously consider making The SHOW this weekend.


SURVEYING THE LANDSCAPE

A lot of folks who specialize in Oscar prediction are  posting/publishing their takes prior to the beginning of the Fall Fest Trifecta of Telluride/Venice/Toronto.

I've included a link to a few.  A couple of them actually reference yours truly:

Kristopher Tapley/Variety

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Matt Neglia/Next Best Picture

Richard Lawson/Vanity Fair

Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit

You read all this and you'll have a really good perspective about what's coming down over next 2-3 weeks.

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