MTFB's Almost Final Oscar Winner Predictions / RIP Gene Hackman

MTFB'S ALMOST FINAL OSCAR WINNER PREDICTIONS

That's right.  "Almost Final".  I finally decided that I'll put up a "Final Final" on Sunday morning so as to have the freshest data for the nine or so categories that are tight.  More on them below.  That said, here are your latest MTFB predictions about who/what wins an Oscar on Sunday night in all 23 categories.  As always, TFF #51 films are in Bold.  A film's previous position is in parentheses to the right of each title.

BEST PICTURE

1) Anora (1)

2) Conclave (2)

3) The Brutalist (3)

4) A Complete Unknown (4)

5) Wicked (5)

6) Emilia Perez (6)

7) I'm Still Here (8)

8) The Substance (7)

9) Dune Part Two (9)

10) Nickel Boys (10)

BEST DIRECTION

1) Sean Baker/Anora (1)

2) Brady Corbet/The Brutalist (2)

3) James Mangold/A Complete Unknown (3)

4) Coralie Fargeat/The Substance (4)

5) Jacques Audiard/Emilia Perez (5)

BEST ACTRESS

1) Mikey Madison/Anora (3)

2) Demi Moore/The Substance (1)

3) Fernanda Torres/I'm Still Here (2)

4) Cynthia Erivo/Wicked (4)

5) Karla Sofia Gascon/Emilia Perez (5)

BEST ACTOR

1) Adrien Brody/The Brutalist (1)

2) Timothee Chalamet/A Complete Unknown (2)

3) Ralph Fiennes/Conclave (3)

4) Domingo Colman/Sing Sing (4)

5) Sebastian Stan/The Apprentice (5)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Zoe Saldana/Emilia Perez (1)

2) Arian Grande/Wicked (2)

3) Isabella Rossellini/Conclave (4)

4) Monica Barbaro/A Complete Unknown (3)

5) Felicity Jones/The Brutalist (5)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Kieran Culkin/A Real Pain (1)

2) Yura Borisov/Anora (3)

3) Edward Norton/A Complete Unknown (2)

4) Guy Pearce/The Brutalist (4)

5) Jeremy Strong/The Apprentice (5)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Conclave (1)

2) Nickel Boys (3)

3) A Complete Unknown (2)

4) Emilia Perez (4)

5) Sing Sing (5)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Anora (1)

2) A Real Pain (3)

3) The Substance (2)

4) The Brutalist (4)

5) September 5 (5)

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM

1) Emilia Perez (2)

2) I'm Still Here (1)

3) The Seed of the Sacred Fig (3)

4) Flow (4)

5) The Girl with the Needle (5)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) Porcelain War (2)

2) No Other Land (1)

3) Black Box Diaries (3)

4) Sugarcane (4)

5) Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat (5)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) The Wild Robot (1)

2) Flow (2)

3) Inside Out 2 (3)

4) Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (5)

5) Memoir of a Snail (4)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) The Brutalist (1)

2) Nosferatu (2)

3) Dune Part Two (3)

4) Maria (5)

5) Emilia Perez (4)

BEST EDITING

1) Conclave (1)

2) Anora (2)

3) Wicked (4)

4) Emilia Perez (5)

5) The Brutalist (3)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Wicked (1)

2) The Brutalist (2)

3) Nosferatu (3)

4) Conclave (5)

5) Dune Part Two (4)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) The Brutalist (1)

2) Conclave (2)

3) The Wild Robot (3)

4) Emilia Perez (4)

5) Wicked (5)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) El Mal/Emilia Perez (1)

2) The Journey/The Six Triple Eight (2)

3) Mi Camino/Emilia Perez (3)

4) Never Too Late/Never Too Late (4)

5) Like a Bird/Sing Sing (5)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1) Wicked (1)

2) Nosferatu (2)

3) Conclave (3)

4) A Complete Unknown (4)

5) Gladiator II (5)

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) The Substance (1)

2) Wicked (2)

3) Emilia Perez (3)

4) Nosferatu (4)

5) A Different Man (5)

BEST SOUND DESIGN

1) Dune Part Two (1)

2) Wicked (2)

3) A Complete Unknown (3)

4) Emilia Perez (4)

5) The Wild Robot (5)

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Dune Part Two (1)

2) Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (2)

3) Wicked (3)

4) Better Man (4)

5) Alien: Romulus (5)

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Anuja

2) I Am Not a Robot

3) A Lien

4) The Man Who Would Not Remain Silent

5) The Last Ranger

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1) Wander to Wonder

2) Beautiful Men

3) The Shadow of the Cypress Tree

4) Yuck!

5) Magic Candles

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) I Am Ready Warden

2) The Only Girl in the Orchestra

3) Instruments of a Beating Heart

4) Incident

5) Death by Numbers

Comments:  Your Oscar pool likely depends on 10 categories.  As always all three Shorts categories are up in the air. The Feature categories with some wiggle room:

Best Actress: Madison and Moore.

Best Actor: Brody and Chalamet.

Best Original Screenplay: Anora, A Real Pain and The Substance.

Best International Feature: Emilia Perez and I'm Still Here.

Best Documentary Feature: Porcelain War and No Other Land.

Best Editing: Conclave and Anora.

Best Sound Design: Dune Part Two, Wicked and A Complete Unknown

As of this morning here's how I am predicting Oscars for TFF #51 films:

Anora (4): Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress and Best Original Screenplay.

Emilia Perez (3): Best International Film, Best Supporting Actress and Best Song.

Conclave (2): Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Editing.

A Real Pain (1): Best Supporting Actor.

For a total of 10 Oscars. for TFF #51 films.

Best chances to pickup a "Surprise" win for TFF #51 films:

Conclave: Best Picture, Best Supporting Actress and Best Original Score.

No Other Land: Best Documentary.

Anora: Best Supporting Actor and Best Editing.

Nickel Boys: Best Adapted Screenplay

A Real Pain: Best Original Screenplay.

Other non-TFF #51 feature winners that I'm predicting:

The Brutalist (3): Best Actor, Best Original Score and Best Cinematography.

Wicked (2): Best Production Design and Best Costume Design.

Dune Part Two (2): Best Sound Design and Best Visual Effects.

Porcelain War (1): Best Documentary.

The Substance (1): Best Makeup/Hair.

The Wild Robot (1): Best Animated Feature.

I'll have a "Final Final" posted sometime Sunday morning.

RIP GENE HACKMAN

One of the greats has left us.  Authorities in Santa Fe, NM reported overnight that Hackman was found dead in his home along with his wife and dog.  Santa Fe law enforcement say there was no sign of foul play.

In 1974, at the very first Telluride Film Festival, audiences got to see Francis Ford Coppola's The Conversation which features one of Hackman's best performances.

Hackman won two Oscars in his career.  One in 1972 for Best Actor in The French Connection and a second in 1993 for Best Supporting Actor in Unforgiven.

Hackman was 95.

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MTFB Oscar Update: Winners Predicitons: Above the Line / Looking Forward to Cannes / Trailer for The Friend / Interviews and Profiles: The Seed of the Sacred Fig and Nickel Boys

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: WINNERS PREDICTIONS: ABOVE THE LINE

The difference two weeks can make.  Since the last posting of theses six "Above the Line" categories, the Karla Sofia Gascon implosion has done major damage to the Oscar chances of Emilia Perez and the 1-2-3 blitz from last weekend of Anora winning Best Picture from the Critics' Choice as well as the Producers' Guild and the directing trophy from the Directors' Guild has re-shaped the Oscar map.  Here's where we are as of this morning.  As always TTFF films are Bold and a film/performer's position from the last set of predictions is indicated in parentheses to the right.

BEST PICTURE

1) Anora (4)

2) Conclave (3)

3) A Complete Unknown (5)

4) The Brutalist (2)

5) Wicked (6)

6) Emilia Perez (1)

7) The Substance (7)

8) I'm Still Here (10)

9) Dune Part Two (9)

10) Nickel Boys (8)

BEST DIRECTION

1) Sean Baker/Anora (3)

2) Brady Corbet/The Brutalist (1)

3) James Mangold/A Complete Unknown (4)

4) Coralie Fargeat/The Substance (5)

5) Jacques Audiard/Emilia Perez (2)

BEST ACTRESS

1) Demi Moore/The Substance (1)

2) Fernanda Torres/I'm Still Here (3)

3) Mikey Madison/Anora (3)

4) Cynthia Erivo/Wicked (5)

5) Karla Sofia Gascon/Emilia Perez (4)

BEST ACTOR

1) Adrien Brody/The Brutalist (2)

2) Timothee Chalamet/A Complete Unknown (1)

3) Ralph Fiennes/Conclave (3)

4) Colman Domingo/Sing Sing (4)

5) Sebastian Stan/The Apprentice (5)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Zoe Saldana/Emilia Perez (1)

2) Ariana Grande/Wicked (2)

3) Monica Barbaro/A Complete Unknown (4)

4) Isabella Rossellini/Conclave (3)

5) Felicity Jones/The Brutalist (5)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Kieran Culkin/A Real Pain (1)

2) Edward Norton/A Complete Unknown (2)

3) Yura Borisov/Anora (4)

4) Guy Pearce/The Brutalist (3)

5) Jeremy Strong/The Apprentice (5)

Comment: As of today's post, MTFB is predicting TFF #51 films to win of these six categories: Picture, Direction and both Supporting Acting awards.

Anora's ascendance is clear as is the Emilia Perez debacle.  I was actually surprised that Emilia Perez only dropped to #6 in Best Picture and the Zoe Saldana remains viable for a Best Supporting Actress film for the film.

Oscar voting is open and we wait to hear from the BAFTAs on Sunday.

LOOKING FORWARD TO CANNES

Jordan Ruimy of World of Reel has his annual speculation list up and running for films that might be selected for Cannes.  As I always like to do at this time of year, I checked it put to see what titles jumped out as possible considerations for TFF #52.  From his lengthy list, here are some films that could screen at Cannes and then make the trip to southwestern Colorado (the order is as they appear in Ruimy's piece):

Die, My Love (Ramsay)

The Mastermind/Reichardt

The Way of the Wind (Malick)

Young Mother (Dardennes)

Orphan (Nemes)

The Love That Remains (Palmason)

The Magnificent Life of Sylvain Pagnol (Chomet)

Bugonia (Lanthimos)

In the Hands of Dante (Schnabel)

Ruimy's complete list is here.

TRAILER FOR THE FRIEND

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

Behind the Scenes of The Seed of the Sacred Fig.

RaMell Ross for Nickel Boys from The Hollywood Reporter.

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Oscar Noms and TFF #51

OSCAR NOMS AND TFF #51

Good Morning...Oscar nominations are in.  My correct number of picks for each category is to the right of the category in parentheses.  TFF #51 films/performers in Bold.

BEST PICTURE (8/10)

Conclave

Emilia Perez

The Brutalist

Anora

A Complete Unknown

Wicked

Dune: Part Two

The Substance

Nickel Boys

I'm Still Here

BEST DIRECTION (4/5)

Brady Corbet/The Brutalist

Sean Baker/Anora

Jacques Audiard/Emilia Perez

Coralie Fargeat/The Substance

James Mangold/ A Complete Unknown

BEST ACTRESS (5/5)

Demi Moore/The Substance

Mikey Madison/Anora

Karla Sofia Gascon/Emilia Perez

Cynthia Erivo/Wicked

Fernanda Torres/I'm Still Here

BEST ACTOR (4/5)

Adrien Brody/The Brutalist

Ralph Fiennes/Conclave

Timothee Chalamet/A Complete Unknown

Colman Domingo/Sing Sing

Sebastian Stan/The Apprentice

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS (4/5)

Zoe Saldana/Emilia Perez

Ariana Grande/Wicked

Isabella Rossellini/Conclave

Felicity Jones/The Brutalist

Monica Barbaro/A Complete Unknown

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR (5/5)

Kieran Culkin/A Real Pain

Edward Norton/ A Complete Unknown

Guy Pearce/The Brutalist

Yura/Borisov/Anora

Jeremy Strong/The Apprentice

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY (5/5)

Conclave

Emilia Perez

Nickel Boys

A Complete Unknown

Sing Sing

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (5/5)

Anora

The Brutalist

A Real Pain

The Substance

September 5

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE (4/5)

Emilia Perez

I'm Still Here

The Seed of the Sacred Fig

The Girl with the Needle

Flow

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE (5/5)

The Wild Robot

Flow

Inside Out 2

Wallace and Gromet: Vengeance Most Fowl

Memoir of a Snail

BEST DOCUMNETARY FEATURE (4/5)

No Other Land

Sugarcane

Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat

Black Box Diaries

Porcelain Wars

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY (4/5)

The Brutalist

Nosferatu

Dune: Part Two

Maria

Emilia Perez

BEST EDITING (4/5)

Conclave

Anora

Emilia Perez

The Brutalist

Wicked

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN (5/5)

Wicked

The Brutalist

Dune: Part Two

Nosferatu

Conclave

BEST SCORE (4/5)

The Brutalist

Conclave

Emilia Perez

The Wild Robot

Wicked

BEST SONG (3/5)

El Mal/Emilia Perez

Mi Camino/Emilia Perez

The Journey/The Six Triple Eight

Like a Bird/Sing Sing

Never Too Late/Never Too Late

BEST COSTUMES (4/5)

Wicked

Nosferatu

Conclave

A Complete Unknown

Gladiator II

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR (5/5)

The Substance

Wicked

Nosferatu

Emilia Perez

A Different Man

BEST SOUND (4/5)

Dune: Part Two

Wicked

A Complete Unknown

Emilia Perez

The Wild Robot

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS (4/5)

Dune: Part Two

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Wicked

Better Man

Alien:Romulus

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT (2/5)

The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent

Anuja

I Am Not a Robot

A Lien

The Last Ranger

BEST ANIMATED SHORT (3/5)

Wander to Wonder

Beautiful Men

Yuck!

In the Shadow of the Cypress

Magic Candies

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT (2/5)

I'm Ready Warden

Incident

Death by Numbers

The Only Girl in the Orchestra

Instruments of a Beating

Stuff:

13 TFF #51 films earn 40 nominations...that's a record.  Plus one from TFF #50 as Incident gets nominated for Best Documentary Short.

Emilia Perez (13)

Conclave (8)

Anora (6)

Two each for:

Nickel Boys

A Real Pain

The Apprentice

One each for:

September 5

The Seed of the Sacred Fig

Memoir of a Snail

No Other Land

Maria

Better Man

Beautiful Men

***Emilia Perez leads all films with 13 nominations and sets a record for an International film.

***For the first time ever Telluride had at least one film nominated in every feature category.

***Biggest Stunner: I'm Still Here in Best Picture.

***MTFB goes 90/105 in feature categories-85.7%.  7/15 in Short subjects-46.7%.  97/120 overall-80.8%

More on Monday...have a super weekend!

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MTFB OSCAR SPECIAL: FINAL NOMINATION PREDICTIONS

 MTFB OSCAR SPECIAL: FINAL NOMINATION PREDICTIONS

Well, here we are...months removed from the close of TFF #51 and now down to less than 24 hours until the big reveal of nominees for the 97th Academy Awards.  It could be a history making day for film from Telluride and the Oscars.  The largest number of nominees in a single year that have come from TFF films is 35 which has happened thrice with TFF films from 2016, 2021 and 2023 (those are the years of the fest).  TFF could see 35+ nominations for films that screened there by the end of the announcement tomorrow morning.  Exciting stuff...

So, drumroll please, here are the MTFB final Oscar nomination predictions (as always, TFF films are in Bold.  The film's previous rank is to the right in parentheses).

BEST PICTURE

1) Conclave

2) Emilia Perez

3) The Brutalist

4) Anora

5) A Complete Unknown

6) Wicked

7) Dune: Part Two

8) A Real Pain

9) The Substance

10) Sing Sing

Others: September 5, Nickel Boys and All We Imagine as Light.

Comment: It looks like TFF films will land four of the 10 slots which ties a record for TFF.  However, if any of the "Other" possibilities sneak in over Sing Sing or The Substance, a new record could be set.  I'd really love it if September 5 could slide in.

BEST DIRECTION

1) Brady Corbet/The Brutalist

2) Sean Baker/Anora

3) Jacques Audiard/Emilia Perez

4) Edward Berger/Conclave

5) Coralie Fargeat/The Substance

Others: James Mangold/ A Complete Unknown, RaMell Ross/Nickel Boys and Payal Kapadia/All We Imagine as Light.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Demi Moore/The Substance

2) Mikey Madison/Anora

3) Karla Sofia Gascon/Emilia Perez

4) Cynthia Erivo/Wicked

5) Fernanda Torres/I'm Still Here

Others: Marianne Jean-Baptiste/Hard Truths, Pamela Anderson/The Last Showgirl and Angelina Jolie/Maria.

BEST ACTOR

1) Adrien Brody/The Brutalist

2) Ralph Fiennes/Conclave

3) Timothee Chalamet/A Complete Unknown

4) Colman Domingo/Sing Sing

5) Daniel Craig/Queer

Others: Sebastian Stan/The Apprentice, Hugh Grant/Heretic and Jesse Eisenberg/A Real Pain.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Zoe Saldana/Emilia Perez

2) Ariana Grande-Butera/Wicked

3) Isabella Rossellini/Conclave

4) Jamie Lee Curtis/The Last Showgirl

5) Felicity Jones/The Brutalist

Others: Monica Barbaro/A Complete Unknown, Margaret Qualley/The Substance and Selena Gomez/Emilia Perez.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Kieran Culkin/A Real Pain

2) Edward Norton/A Complete Unknown

3) Guy Pearce/The Brutalist

4) Yura Borisov/Anora

5) Jeremy Strong/The Apprentice

Others: Clarence Maclin/Sing Sing, Denzel Washington/Gladiator II and Stanley Tucci/Conclave.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Conclave

2) Emilia Perez

3) Nickel Boys

4) A Complete Unknown

5) Sing Sing

Others: Dune: Part Two, Wicked and Hit Man.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Anora

2) The Brutalist

3) A Real Pain

4) The Substance

5) September 5

Others: Hard Truths, Challengers and All We Imagine as Light.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) Emilia Perez

2) I'm Still Here

3) The Seed of the Sacred Fig

4) Kneecap

5) The Girl with the Needle

Others: Flow, Vermiglio and Dahomey.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) The Wild Robot

2) Flow

3) Inside Out 2

4) Wallace and Gromet: Vengeance Most Fowl

5) Memoir of a Snail

Others: Moana 2, Piece by Piece and Chicken for Linda.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) No Other Land

2) Daughters

3) Sugarcane

4) Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat

5) Black Box Diaries

Others: Porcelain War, Dahomey and Will and Harper.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) The Brutalist

2) Conclave

3) Nosferatu

4) Dune: Part Two

5) Maria

Others: Emilia Perez, Nickel Boys and A Complete Unknown.

BEST EDITING

1) Conclave

2) Dune: Part Two

3) Anora

4) Emilia Perez

5) The Brutalist

Others: September 5, Wicked and Challengers.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Wicked

2) The Brutalist

3) Dune: Part Two

4) Nosferatu

5) Conclave

Others: Gladiator II, A Complete Unknown and The Substance.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) The Brutalist

2) Conclave

3) Emilia Perez

4) The Wild Robot

5) Challengers

Others: Blitz, Wicked and The Room Next Door.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) El Mal/Emilia Perez

2) Kiss the Sky/The Wild Robot

3) The Journey/The Six Triple Eight

4) Mi Camino/Emilia Perez

5) Compress/Repress/Challengers

Others: Sick in the Head/Kneecap, Like a Bird/Sing Sing and Never Too Late/Never Too Late.

BEST SOUND DESIGN

1) Dune: Part Two

2) Wicked

3) A Complete Unknown

4) Emilia Perez

5) Gladiator II

Others: Blitz, The Wild Robot and Deadpool and Wolverine.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1) Wicked

2) Nosferatu

3) Dune: Part Two

4) Conclave

5) A Complete Unknown

Others: Gladiator II, Blitz and Maria.

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) The Substance

2) Wicked

3) Nosferatu

4) Emilia Perez

5) A Different Man

Others: Dune: Part Two, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice and The Apprentice.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Dune: Part Two

2) Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

3) Wicked

4) Better Man

5) Gladiator II

Others: Twisters, Alien: Romulus and Deadpool and Wolverine.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) Once Upon a Time in Ukraine

2) Maykayla's Voice: A Letter to the World

3) I Am Ready, Warden

4) A Swim Lesson

5) Incident

Others: Death by Numbers, The Only Girl in the Orchestra and The Quilters.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1)  A Bear Named Wotjek

2) Wander to Wonder

3) A Crab in the Pool

4) Beautiful Men

5) Yuck!

Others: Maybe Elephants, Me and In the Shadow of the Cypress.

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) The Man Who Could Not Remain Quiet

2) The Masterpiece

3) Ajuna

4) An Orange from Jaffa

5) Dovecote

Others: I am Not a Robot, Room Taken, Ice Cream Man.

If I'm 100% correct 14 TFF #51 films will earn 41 nominations:

Emilia Perez (12): Best Picture, International Feature, Direction, Actress (Gascon), Supporting Actress (Saldana), Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Score, Song X2, Sound and Makeup/Hair.

Conclave (10): Best Picture, Direction, Actor (Fiennes), Supporting Actress (Rossellini), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Score and Costumes.

Anora (6): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Madison), Supporting Actor (Borisov), Original Screenplay and Editing.

Nosferatu (4): Best Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup/Hair.

A Real Pain (3): Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Culkin), Original Screenplay.

The Wild Robot (3): Best Animated Film, Score and Song.

Single nominees:

September 5: Original Screenplay.

Nickel Boys: Adapted Screenplay.

Maria: Cinematography.

The Apprentice: Supporting Actor (Strong).

The Seed of the Sacred Fig: International Feature.

Memoir of a Snail: Animated Feature.

No Other Land: Documentary Feature.

Better Man: Visual Effects.

Beautiful Men: Animated Short.

A Swim Lesson: Documentary Short.

As regular readers know, my average on nominations is around 78% correct.  Additionally, most years the sixth listed potential nominee picks up about 75% of the time.

Which leads to the list of other possible nominations that could land for TFF films as well:

Conclave: Supporting Actor (Tucci).

September 5: Picture, Editing.

Nickel Boys: Picture, Direction.

All We Imagine as Light: Picture, Direction, Original Screenplay.

Maria: Actress (Jolie).

The Apprentice: Actor (Stan), Makeup/Hair.

Will & Harper: Documentary.

And one other cool note...for the first time since I started doing this, TFF has a film nominated in every main category.  Looking at the "Unofficial TFF Oscar History Page" here on the site,  it shows that's never happened before.

Other non-TFF films expected to have a big morning:

The Brutalist (10): Best Picture, Direction, Actor (Brody), Supporting Actress (Jones), Supporting Actor (Pearce), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design.

Wicked (8): Best Picture, Actress (Erivo), Supporting Actress (Grande-Butera), Production Design, Costumes, Sound, Makeup/Hair and Visual Effects.

Dune: Part Two (7): Best Picture, Cinematography, Editing, Costumes, Production Design, Sound and Visual Effects.

A Complete Unknown (6): Best Picture, Actor (Chalamet), Supporting Actor (Norton), Adapted Screenplay. Sound and Costumes.

The Substance (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Moore), Original Screenplay and Makeup/Hair.

Sing Sing (3): Best Picture, Actor (Domingo) and Adapted Screenplay.

The Wild Robot (3); Best Animated Feature, Score and Song.

Now...we wait...

BAFTA and TFF #51 / MTFB Oscar Update-It's in Flux-Updating the Big Eight / Writers Guild and TFF #51 / Interviews and Profiles

BAFTA AND TFF #51

First came the longlists and now we have the actual nominees from the British Academy of Film and Televisions Arts (BAFTA).  The Brits have nominated 14 films that played at TFF #51 for a total of 45 nominations.  Conclave and Emilia Perez had the most noms with a dozen and 11 respectively.  Here's the complete rundown of BAFTA nominations and TFF films:

Conclave (12): Best Film, Outstanding British Film, Direction, Actor (Fiennes), Supporting Actress (Rossellini), Casting, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Score and Costumes.

Emilia Perez (11): Best Film, Best Film Not in the English Language, Direction, Actress (Gascon), Supporting Actress (Saldana), Supporting Actress (Gomez), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Score and Makeup/Hair.

Anora (7): Best Film, Direction, Actress (Madison), Supporting Actor (Borisov), Original Screenplay, Casting and Editing.

The Apprentice (3): Best Actor (Stan), Supporting Actor (Strong) and Casting.

A Real Pain (2): Best Supporting Actor (Culkin) and Original Screenplay.

The Outrun (2): Outstanding British Film and Best Actress (Ronan).

All other films have a single nomination as follows:

Nickel Boys: Best Adapted Screenplay.

No Other Land: Best Documentary.

Will & Harper: Best Documentary.

The Seed of the Sacred Fig: Best Film Not in the English Language.

All We Imagine as Light: Best Film Not in the English Language.

Bird: Outstanding British Film.

Santosh: Outstanding Debut.

Better Man: Best Special Visual Effects.

The BAFTA Awards will be handed out on Feb. 16th.

The complete set of all BAFTA nominations is linked here.

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE-IT'S IN FLUX

It's all pretty messy now.  Oscar nominations are now set to be announced on Jan. 23rd.  Today I'm updating the nomination predictions for the Big Eight categories: Picture, Direction, all four acting categories and the two screenplay categories.  My plan at the moment is to focus on updating close races in Monday's post and do a Special Final Oscar Nom post on Wednesday the 22nd assuming that the Thursday, Jan. 23rd date remains in tact.  I'll do some sort of post on Thursday after the nominations are announced.

That said, here are updated predictions for the Big Eight with their last posted ranking to the right of each title in parentheses.  And, as always, TFF films are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) Conclave (1)

2) Anora  (2)

3) Emilia Perez (3)

4) The Brutalist (4)

5) Wicked Part 1 (5)

6) A Complete Unknown (7)

7) Dune Part Two (6)

8) The Substance (-)

9) A Real Pain (9)

10) Nickel Boys (10)

Others: Sing Sing, All We Imagine as Light.

BEST DIRECTION

1) Brady Corbet/The Brutalist (1)

2) Jacques Audiard/Emilia Perez (4)

3) Sean Baker/Anora (2)

4) Edward Berger/Conclave (3)

5) Coralie Fargeat/The Substance (-)

Others: James Mangold/A Complete Unknown, RaMell Ross/Nickel Boys and Payal Kapadia/All We Imagine as Light.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Demi Moore/The Substance (5)

2) Mikey Madison/Anora (1)

3) Karla Sofia Gascon/Emilia Perez (3)

4) Cynthia Erivo/Wicked Part 1 (4)

5) Fernanda Torres/I'm Still Here (-)

Others: Marianne Jean-Baptiste/Hard Truths, Angelina Jolie/Maria and Pamela Anderson/The Last Showgirl.

BEST ACTOR

1) Timothee Chalamet/A Complete Unknown (3)

2) Adrien Brody/The Brutalist (1)

3) Ralph Fiennes/Conclave (2)

4) Colman Domingo/Sing Sing (4)

5) Daniel Craig/Queer (5)

Others: Sebastian Stan/The Apprentice, Sebastian Stan/A Different Man and Hugh Grant/Heretic.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Zoe Saldana/Emilia Perez (1)

2) Ariana Grande-Butera/Wicked Part 1 (2)

3) Isabella Rossellini/Conclave (3)

4) Monica Barbaro/A Complete Unknown (-)

5) Felicity Jones/The Brutalist (4)

Others: Danielle Deadwyler/The Piano Lesson, Jamie Lee Cutis/The Last Showgirl and Margaret Qualley/The Substance.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Kieran Culkin/A Real Pain (1)

2) Edward Norton/A Complete Unknown (4)

3) Yura Borisov/Anora (3)

4) Guy Pearce/The Brutalist (2)

5) Jeremy Strong/The Apprentice (-)

Others: Denzel Washington/Gladiator II, Clarence Maclin/Sing Sing and Jonathan Bailey/Wicked Part 1.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Conclave (1)

2) Emilia Perez (2)

3) A Complete Unknown (-)

4) Nickel Boys (4)

5) Sing Sing (3)

Others: Dune Part Two, Wicked Part 1 and Hit Man.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Anora (1)

2) The Brutalist (2)

3) A Real Pain (3)

4) The Substance (4)

5) September 5 (5)

Others: All We Imagine as Light, Hard Truths and Challengers.

Comment: Conclave, A Complete Unknown and The Substance make big moves up.  Tough sledding for Sing Sing, Denzel and Deadwyler.

WRITERS GUILD AND TFF #51

The Writers Guild of America announced its nominees for Best Screenplays for 2024 yesterday.  Three TFF films earned nominations.  A Real Pain and Anora  made the list for Original Screenplay while Nickel Boys was nominated for Adapted Screenplay.  It's worth noting that a number of screenplays that are thought to be Oscar contenders were not eligible under the WGA's rules including: Conclave, Emilia Perez, The Outrun, All We Imagine as Light, The Seed of the Sacred Fig and September 5.

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

Director Michael Gracey for Better Man from Next Best Picture.

Stanley Tucci for Conclave from Variety.

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