MTFB's Almost Final Oscar Winner Predictions / RIP Gene Hackman

MTFB'S ALMOST FINAL OSCAR WINNER PREDICTIONS

That's right.  "Almost Final".  I finally decided that I'll put up a "Final Final" on Sunday morning so as to have the freshest data for the nine or so categories that are tight.  More on them below.  That said, here are your latest MTFB predictions about who/what wins an Oscar on Sunday night in all 23 categories.  As always, TFF #51 films are in Bold.  A film's previous position is in parentheses to the right of each title.

BEST PICTURE

1) Anora (1)

2) Conclave (2)

3) The Brutalist (3)

4) A Complete Unknown (4)

5) Wicked (5)

6) Emilia Perez (6)

7) I'm Still Here (8)

8) The Substance (7)

9) Dune Part Two (9)

10) Nickel Boys (10)

BEST DIRECTION

1) Sean Baker/Anora (1)

2) Brady Corbet/The Brutalist (2)

3) James Mangold/A Complete Unknown (3)

4) Coralie Fargeat/The Substance (4)

5) Jacques Audiard/Emilia Perez (5)

BEST ACTRESS

1) Mikey Madison/Anora (3)

2) Demi Moore/The Substance (1)

3) Fernanda Torres/I'm Still Here (2)

4) Cynthia Erivo/Wicked (4)

5) Karla Sofia Gascon/Emilia Perez (5)

BEST ACTOR

1) Adrien Brody/The Brutalist (1)

2) Timothee Chalamet/A Complete Unknown (2)

3) Ralph Fiennes/Conclave (3)

4) Domingo Colman/Sing Sing (4)

5) Sebastian Stan/The Apprentice (5)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Zoe Saldana/Emilia Perez (1)

2) Arian Grande/Wicked (2)

3) Isabella Rossellini/Conclave (4)

4) Monica Barbaro/A Complete Unknown (3)

5) Felicity Jones/The Brutalist (5)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Kieran Culkin/A Real Pain (1)

2) Yura Borisov/Anora (3)

3) Edward Norton/A Complete Unknown (2)

4) Guy Pearce/The Brutalist (4)

5) Jeremy Strong/The Apprentice (5)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Conclave (1)

2) Nickel Boys (3)

3) A Complete Unknown (2)

4) Emilia Perez (4)

5) Sing Sing (5)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Anora (1)

2) A Real Pain (3)

3) The Substance (2)

4) The Brutalist (4)

5) September 5 (5)

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM

1) Emilia Perez (2)

2) I'm Still Here (1)

3) The Seed of the Sacred Fig (3)

4) Flow (4)

5) The Girl with the Needle (5)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) Porcelain War (2)

2) No Other Land (1)

3) Black Box Diaries (3)

4) Sugarcane (4)

5) Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat (5)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) The Wild Robot (1)

2) Flow (2)

3) Inside Out 2 (3)

4) Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (5)

5) Memoir of a Snail (4)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) The Brutalist (1)

2) Nosferatu (2)

3) Dune Part Two (3)

4) Maria (5)

5) Emilia Perez (4)

BEST EDITING

1) Conclave (1)

2) Anora (2)

3) Wicked (4)

4) Emilia Perez (5)

5) The Brutalist (3)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Wicked (1)

2) The Brutalist (2)

3) Nosferatu (3)

4) Conclave (5)

5) Dune Part Two (4)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) The Brutalist (1)

2) Conclave (2)

3) The Wild Robot (3)

4) Emilia Perez (4)

5) Wicked (5)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) El Mal/Emilia Perez (1)

2) The Journey/The Six Triple Eight (2)

3) Mi Camino/Emilia Perez (3)

4) Never Too Late/Never Too Late (4)

5) Like a Bird/Sing Sing (5)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1) Wicked (1)

2) Nosferatu (2)

3) Conclave (3)

4) A Complete Unknown (4)

5) Gladiator II (5)

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) The Substance (1)

2) Wicked (2)

3) Emilia Perez (3)

4) Nosferatu (4)

5) A Different Man (5)

BEST SOUND DESIGN

1) Dune Part Two (1)

2) Wicked (2)

3) A Complete Unknown (3)

4) Emilia Perez (4)

5) The Wild Robot (5)

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Dune Part Two (1)

2) Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (2)

3) Wicked (3)

4) Better Man (4)

5) Alien: Romulus (5)

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Anuja

2) I Am Not a Robot

3) A Lien

4) The Man Who Would Not Remain Silent

5) The Last Ranger

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1) Wander to Wonder

2) Beautiful Men

3) The Shadow of the Cypress Tree

4) Yuck!

5) Magic Candles

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) I Am Ready Warden

2) The Only Girl in the Orchestra

3) Instruments of a Beating Heart

4) Incident

5) Death by Numbers

Comments:  Your Oscar pool likely depends on 10 categories.  As always all three Shorts categories are up in the air. The Feature categories with some wiggle room:

Best Actress: Madison and Moore.

Best Actor: Brody and Chalamet.

Best Original Screenplay: Anora, A Real Pain and The Substance.

Best International Feature: Emilia Perez and I'm Still Here.

Best Documentary Feature: Porcelain War and No Other Land.

Best Editing: Conclave and Anora.

Best Sound Design: Dune Part Two, Wicked and A Complete Unknown

As of this morning here's how I am predicting Oscars for TFF #51 films:

Anora (4): Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress and Best Original Screenplay.

Emilia Perez (3): Best International Film, Best Supporting Actress and Best Song.

Conclave (2): Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Editing.

A Real Pain (1): Best Supporting Actor.

For a total of 10 Oscars. for TFF #51 films.

Best chances to pickup a "Surprise" win for TFF #51 films:

Conclave: Best Picture, Best Supporting Actress and Best Original Score.

No Other Land: Best Documentary.

Anora: Best Supporting Actor and Best Editing.

Nickel Boys: Best Adapted Screenplay

A Real Pain: Best Original Screenplay.

Other non-TFF #51 feature winners that I'm predicting:

The Brutalist (3): Best Actor, Best Original Score and Best Cinematography.

Wicked (2): Best Production Design and Best Costume Design.

Dune Part Two (2): Best Sound Design and Best Visual Effects.

Porcelain War (1): Best Documentary.

The Substance (1): Best Makeup/Hair.

The Wild Robot (1): Best Animated Feature.

I'll have a "Final Final" posted sometime Sunday morning.

RIP GENE HACKMAN

One of the greats has left us.  Authorities in Santa Fe, NM reported overnight that Hackman was found dead in his home along with his wife and dog.  Santa Fe law enforcement say there was no sign of foul play.

In 1974, at the very first Telluride Film Festival, audiences got to see Francis Ford Coppola's The Conversation which features one of Hackman's best performances.

Hackman won two Oscars in his career.  One in 1972 for Best Actor in The French Connection and a second in 1993 for Best Supporting Actor in Unforgiven.

Hackman was 95.

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MTFB Oscar Update: Oscar Winners Predictions: Screenplays and More / BAFTA and TFF #51 / Writers' Guild and TFF #51

 MTFB OSCAR WINNERS PREDICTIONS: SCREENPLAYS AND MORE

We're under two weeks to Oscar night.  Today I am updating predictions for both screenplay categories as well as International , Animated and Documentary features.  These categories were first predicted two weeks back on Feb. 3rd.  As always, TFF films are Bold.  A film's previous ranking is indicated to the right in parentheses.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Conclave (1)

2) A Complete Unknown (2)

3) Nickel Boys (3)

4) Emilia Perez (4)

5) Sing Sing (5)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Anora (1)

2) The Substance (3)

3) A Real Pain (4)

4) The Brutalist (2)

5) September 5 (5)

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) I'm Still Here (1)

2) Emilia Perez (3)

3) The Seed of the Sacred Fig (2)

4) Flow  (4)

5) The Girl with the Needle (5)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) The Wild Robot (1)

2) Flow (2)

3) Inside Out 2 (3)

4) Memoir of a Snail (5)

5) Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (4)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) No Other Land (1)

2) Porcelain War (4)

3) Black Box Diaries (3)

4) Sugarcane (2)

5) Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat (5)

Comments:  Despite the backlash, Emilia Perez still looks like it has a real shot at the International Feature Oscar.  I still have it behind I'm Still Here but it feels close.  Additionally, Porcelain War has surged in the Documentary category.  The biggest lock from these categories seems to be Conclave in Adapted Screenplay.

Should these predictions prove out, TFF #51 films would win three of the five categories.

BAFTA AND TFF #51

The British Academy of Film and Television Arts announced their winners on Sunday.  each with Conclave leading the way with four wins including Best Film. Four TFF #51 films landed a least two BAFTAs including Conclave with four wins including Best Film.

Here's the rundown of  TFF #51 films' BAFTA wins:

Conclave: Best Film, Best British Film, Adapted Screenplay and Editing.  

Anora: Best Actress (Madison) and Casting.

Emilia Perez: Best Film Not in the English Language and Best Supporting Actress (Saldana).

A Real Pain: Best Supporting Actor (Culkin) and Original Screenplay.

Among non-TFF films The Brutalist had four wins as well for Best Direction, Actor (Brody), Cinematography and Score.

The Conclave win for Best Film gives it a little life for Oscar night.  Wins for Saldana and Culkin cement their status for Supporting Oscars and all of the hubbub regarding Emilia Perez didn't seem to slow it down in London.

TFF #51 films were nominated for a total of  45 awards.

WRITERS' GUILD AND TFF #51

Two TFF #51 films picked up Writers' Guild of America awards on Saturday night.  Sean Baker won for Anora as Best Original Screenplay while RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes shared the trophy for Nickel Boys as Best Adapted Screenplay.

These results are likely indicative of an Anora Oscar win in two weeks.  The Nickel Boys win is likely less predictive as Conclave was ineligible under WGA rules.  Most of the Oscar prediction community thinks Conclave is the favorite.  Currently 29 out of the 34 Gold Derby experts are predicting Conclave to pick up the Oscar win.

Here is the complete list of winners from the WGA.

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MTFB Oscar Update: Predicting Oscar Winners: Screenplays and More / The Emilia Perez Saga / Interviews and Profiles

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: PREDICTING OSCAR WINNERS: SCREENPLAYS AND MORE

MTFB continues today with trying to predict the Oscar winners for 2025.    Five more categories are added today.  As always TFF films are in Bold.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Conclave

2) A Complete Unknown

3) Nickel Boys

4) Emilia Perez

5) Sing Sing

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Anora

2) The Brutalist

3) The Substance

4) A Real Pain

5) September 5

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) I'm Still Here

2) The Seed of the Sacred fig

3) Emilia Perez

4) Flow

5) The Girl with the Needle

ANIMATED FEATURE

1) The Wild Robot

2) Flow

3) Inside Out 2

4) Wallace and Gromet: Vengeance Most Fowl

5) Memoir of a Snail

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) No Other Land

2) Sugarcane

3) Black Box Diaries

4) Porcelain War

5) Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat

THE EMILIA PEREZ SAGA

Hoo boy...Emilia Perez  13 Oscar nominations...most of any film this year.  Tied for second most all time.  And after this last week...likely not going to win a single one.  Initially signaling trouble was big time negative reactions from a number of communities reflected in the film as well as criticism that the film, set in Mexico, had almost no input or participation from Mexican natives/

Then came the reveal of a number of posts from the movie's lead Karla Sofia Gascon...that were incendiary to say the least.

Last Thursday I had it nominally winning Best Picture and Best Supporting Actress.  Now, based on nominations and such, had this past week not happened, it could have also won: International Feature and Original Song as well.  Now, I suspect, the film is fried.  13 nominations and no wins anywhere.

Emilia Perez was always going to be a hard sell for Best Picture but in an year that has been fractured in terms of  Oscar predicting, the film with 13 nominations seemed like the best bet.  Now???It's the Wild West in Oscarland.

In the Best Picture race, Emilia Perez's woes benefit Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave and A Complete Unknown.  I won't predict the Best Picture again officially until Feb. 13th.  That said, I feel that Conclave and  A Complete Unknown have the best chance to gain from what's been going on.

In Emilia's other three categories that it could have won...

Best Supporting Actress: If there is one category that might survive the blowback, this is it.  Zoe Saldana has been so far out front for so long maybe she escapes with the trophy.  Otherwise, congrats Ariana Grande.

Best International Film: Congrats to  I'm Still Here.  We already had figured out that The Academy likes this film a lot with it also being nominated for Best Picture and Best Actress (where Fernanda Torres could actually win).

Best Song:  Does Diane Warren actually win on her 16th nomination?  Maybe so.  Assuming both El Mal and Mi Camino are sunk you're left with her song from The Six Triple Eight, Elton John's tune and the song from Sing Sing.

Ultimately, as this space is about Telluride films, this mess likely decreases TFF film's overall success on Oscar night.

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

RaMell Ross for Nickel Boys from Pop Culture Confidential.

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Oscar Noms and TFF #51

OSCAR NOMS AND TFF #51

Good Morning...Oscar nominations are in.  My correct number of picks for each category is to the right of the category in parentheses.  TFF #51 films/performers in Bold.

BEST PICTURE (8/10)

Conclave

Emilia Perez

The Brutalist

Anora

A Complete Unknown

Wicked

Dune: Part Two

The Substance

Nickel Boys

I'm Still Here

BEST DIRECTION (4/5)

Brady Corbet/The Brutalist

Sean Baker/Anora

Jacques Audiard/Emilia Perez

Coralie Fargeat/The Substance

James Mangold/ A Complete Unknown

BEST ACTRESS (5/5)

Demi Moore/The Substance

Mikey Madison/Anora

Karla Sofia Gascon/Emilia Perez

Cynthia Erivo/Wicked

Fernanda Torres/I'm Still Here

BEST ACTOR (4/5)

Adrien Brody/The Brutalist

Ralph Fiennes/Conclave

Timothee Chalamet/A Complete Unknown

Colman Domingo/Sing Sing

Sebastian Stan/The Apprentice

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS (4/5)

Zoe Saldana/Emilia Perez

Ariana Grande/Wicked

Isabella Rossellini/Conclave

Felicity Jones/The Brutalist

Monica Barbaro/A Complete Unknown

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR (5/5)

Kieran Culkin/A Real Pain

Edward Norton/ A Complete Unknown

Guy Pearce/The Brutalist

Yura/Borisov/Anora

Jeremy Strong/The Apprentice

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY (5/5)

Conclave

Emilia Perez

Nickel Boys

A Complete Unknown

Sing Sing

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (5/5)

Anora

The Brutalist

A Real Pain

The Substance

September 5

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE (4/5)

Emilia Perez

I'm Still Here

The Seed of the Sacred Fig

The Girl with the Needle

Flow

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE (5/5)

The Wild Robot

Flow

Inside Out 2

Wallace and Gromet: Vengeance Most Fowl

Memoir of a Snail

BEST DOCUMNETARY FEATURE (4/5)

No Other Land

Sugarcane

Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat

Black Box Diaries

Porcelain Wars

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY (4/5)

The Brutalist

Nosferatu

Dune: Part Two

Maria

Emilia Perez

BEST EDITING (4/5)

Conclave

Anora

Emilia Perez

The Brutalist

Wicked

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN (5/5)

Wicked

The Brutalist

Dune: Part Two

Nosferatu

Conclave

BEST SCORE (4/5)

The Brutalist

Conclave

Emilia Perez

The Wild Robot

Wicked

BEST SONG (3/5)

El Mal/Emilia Perez

Mi Camino/Emilia Perez

The Journey/The Six Triple Eight

Like a Bird/Sing Sing

Never Too Late/Never Too Late

BEST COSTUMES (4/5)

Wicked

Nosferatu

Conclave

A Complete Unknown

Gladiator II

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR (5/5)

The Substance

Wicked

Nosferatu

Emilia Perez

A Different Man

BEST SOUND (4/5)

Dune: Part Two

Wicked

A Complete Unknown

Emilia Perez

The Wild Robot

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS (4/5)

Dune: Part Two

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Wicked

Better Man

Alien:Romulus

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT (2/5)

The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent

Anuja

I Am Not a Robot

A Lien

The Last Ranger

BEST ANIMATED SHORT (3/5)

Wander to Wonder

Beautiful Men

Yuck!

In the Shadow of the Cypress

Magic Candies

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT (2/5)

I'm Ready Warden

Incident

Death by Numbers

The Only Girl in the Orchestra

Instruments of a Beating

Stuff:

13 TFF #51 films earn 40 nominations...that's a record.  Plus one from TFF #50 as Incident gets nominated for Best Documentary Short.

Emilia Perez (13)

Conclave (8)

Anora (6)

Two each for:

Nickel Boys

A Real Pain

The Apprentice

One each for:

September 5

The Seed of the Sacred Fig

Memoir of a Snail

No Other Land

Maria

Better Man

Beautiful Men

***Emilia Perez leads all films with 13 nominations and sets a record for an International film.

***For the first time ever Telluride had at least one film nominated in every feature category.

***Biggest Stunner: I'm Still Here in Best Picture.

***MTFB goes 90/105 in feature categories-85.7%.  7/15 in Short subjects-46.7%.  97/120 overall-80.8%

More on Monday...have a super weekend!

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MTFB OSCAR SPECIAL: FINAL NOMINATION PREDICTIONS

 MTFB OSCAR SPECIAL: FINAL NOMINATION PREDICTIONS

Well, here we are...months removed from the close of TFF #51 and now down to less than 24 hours until the big reveal of nominees for the 97th Academy Awards.  It could be a history making day for film from Telluride and the Oscars.  The largest number of nominees in a single year that have come from TFF films is 35 which has happened thrice with TFF films from 2016, 2021 and 2023 (those are the years of the fest).  TFF could see 35+ nominations for films that screened there by the end of the announcement tomorrow morning.  Exciting stuff...

So, drumroll please, here are the MTFB final Oscar nomination predictions (as always, TFF films are in Bold.  The film's previous rank is to the right in parentheses).

BEST PICTURE

1) Conclave

2) Emilia Perez

3) The Brutalist

4) Anora

5) A Complete Unknown

6) Wicked

7) Dune: Part Two

8) A Real Pain

9) The Substance

10) Sing Sing

Others: September 5, Nickel Boys and All We Imagine as Light.

Comment: It looks like TFF films will land four of the 10 slots which ties a record for TFF.  However, if any of the "Other" possibilities sneak in over Sing Sing or The Substance, a new record could be set.  I'd really love it if September 5 could slide in.

BEST DIRECTION

1) Brady Corbet/The Brutalist

2) Sean Baker/Anora

3) Jacques Audiard/Emilia Perez

4) Edward Berger/Conclave

5) Coralie Fargeat/The Substance

Others: James Mangold/ A Complete Unknown, RaMell Ross/Nickel Boys and Payal Kapadia/All We Imagine as Light.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Demi Moore/The Substance

2) Mikey Madison/Anora

3) Karla Sofia Gascon/Emilia Perez

4) Cynthia Erivo/Wicked

5) Fernanda Torres/I'm Still Here

Others: Marianne Jean-Baptiste/Hard Truths, Pamela Anderson/The Last Showgirl and Angelina Jolie/Maria.

BEST ACTOR

1) Adrien Brody/The Brutalist

2) Ralph Fiennes/Conclave

3) Timothee Chalamet/A Complete Unknown

4) Colman Domingo/Sing Sing

5) Daniel Craig/Queer

Others: Sebastian Stan/The Apprentice, Hugh Grant/Heretic and Jesse Eisenberg/A Real Pain.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Zoe Saldana/Emilia Perez

2) Ariana Grande-Butera/Wicked

3) Isabella Rossellini/Conclave

4) Jamie Lee Curtis/The Last Showgirl

5) Felicity Jones/The Brutalist

Others: Monica Barbaro/A Complete Unknown, Margaret Qualley/The Substance and Selena Gomez/Emilia Perez.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Kieran Culkin/A Real Pain

2) Edward Norton/A Complete Unknown

3) Guy Pearce/The Brutalist

4) Yura Borisov/Anora

5) Jeremy Strong/The Apprentice

Others: Clarence Maclin/Sing Sing, Denzel Washington/Gladiator II and Stanley Tucci/Conclave.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Conclave

2) Emilia Perez

3) Nickel Boys

4) A Complete Unknown

5) Sing Sing

Others: Dune: Part Two, Wicked and Hit Man.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Anora

2) The Brutalist

3) A Real Pain

4) The Substance

5) September 5

Others: Hard Truths, Challengers and All We Imagine as Light.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) Emilia Perez

2) I'm Still Here

3) The Seed of the Sacred Fig

4) Kneecap

5) The Girl with the Needle

Others: Flow, Vermiglio and Dahomey.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) The Wild Robot

2) Flow

3) Inside Out 2

4) Wallace and Gromet: Vengeance Most Fowl

5) Memoir of a Snail

Others: Moana 2, Piece by Piece and Chicken for Linda.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) No Other Land

2) Daughters

3) Sugarcane

4) Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat

5) Black Box Diaries

Others: Porcelain War, Dahomey and Will and Harper.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) The Brutalist

2) Conclave

3) Nosferatu

4) Dune: Part Two

5) Maria

Others: Emilia Perez, Nickel Boys and A Complete Unknown.

BEST EDITING

1) Conclave

2) Dune: Part Two

3) Anora

4) Emilia Perez

5) The Brutalist

Others: September 5, Wicked and Challengers.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Wicked

2) The Brutalist

3) Dune: Part Two

4) Nosferatu

5) Conclave

Others: Gladiator II, A Complete Unknown and The Substance.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) The Brutalist

2) Conclave

3) Emilia Perez

4) The Wild Robot

5) Challengers

Others: Blitz, Wicked and The Room Next Door.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) El Mal/Emilia Perez

2) Kiss the Sky/The Wild Robot

3) The Journey/The Six Triple Eight

4) Mi Camino/Emilia Perez

5) Compress/Repress/Challengers

Others: Sick in the Head/Kneecap, Like a Bird/Sing Sing and Never Too Late/Never Too Late.

BEST SOUND DESIGN

1) Dune: Part Two

2) Wicked

3) A Complete Unknown

4) Emilia Perez

5) Gladiator II

Others: Blitz, The Wild Robot and Deadpool and Wolverine.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1) Wicked

2) Nosferatu

3) Dune: Part Two

4) Conclave

5) A Complete Unknown

Others: Gladiator II, Blitz and Maria.

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) The Substance

2) Wicked

3) Nosferatu

4) Emilia Perez

5) A Different Man

Others: Dune: Part Two, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice and The Apprentice.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Dune: Part Two

2) Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

3) Wicked

4) Better Man

5) Gladiator II

Others: Twisters, Alien: Romulus and Deadpool and Wolverine.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) Once Upon a Time in Ukraine

2) Maykayla's Voice: A Letter to the World

3) I Am Ready, Warden

4) A Swim Lesson

5) Incident

Others: Death by Numbers, The Only Girl in the Orchestra and The Quilters.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1)  A Bear Named Wotjek

2) Wander to Wonder

3) A Crab in the Pool

4) Beautiful Men

5) Yuck!

Others: Maybe Elephants, Me and In the Shadow of the Cypress.

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) The Man Who Could Not Remain Quiet

2) The Masterpiece

3) Ajuna

4) An Orange from Jaffa

5) Dovecote

Others: I am Not a Robot, Room Taken, Ice Cream Man.

If I'm 100% correct 14 TFF #51 films will earn 41 nominations:

Emilia Perez (12): Best Picture, International Feature, Direction, Actress (Gascon), Supporting Actress (Saldana), Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Score, Song X2, Sound and Makeup/Hair.

Conclave (10): Best Picture, Direction, Actor (Fiennes), Supporting Actress (Rossellini), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Score and Costumes.

Anora (6): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Madison), Supporting Actor (Borisov), Original Screenplay and Editing.

Nosferatu (4): Best Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup/Hair.

A Real Pain (3): Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Culkin), Original Screenplay.

The Wild Robot (3): Best Animated Film, Score and Song.

Single nominees:

September 5: Original Screenplay.

Nickel Boys: Adapted Screenplay.

Maria: Cinematography.

The Apprentice: Supporting Actor (Strong).

The Seed of the Sacred Fig: International Feature.

Memoir of a Snail: Animated Feature.

No Other Land: Documentary Feature.

Better Man: Visual Effects.

Beautiful Men: Animated Short.

A Swim Lesson: Documentary Short.

As regular readers know, my average on nominations is around 78% correct.  Additionally, most years the sixth listed potential nominee picks up about 75% of the time.

Which leads to the list of other possible nominations that could land for TFF films as well:

Conclave: Supporting Actor (Tucci).

September 5: Picture, Editing.

Nickel Boys: Picture, Direction.

All We Imagine as Light: Picture, Direction, Original Screenplay.

Maria: Actress (Jolie).

The Apprentice: Actor (Stan), Makeup/Hair.

Will & Harper: Documentary.

And one other cool note...for the first time since I started doing this, TFF has a film nominated in every main category.  Looking at the "Unofficial TFF Oscar History Page" here on the site,  it shows that's never happened before.

Other non-TFF films expected to have a big morning:

The Brutalist (10): Best Picture, Direction, Actor (Brody), Supporting Actress (Jones), Supporting Actor (Pearce), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design.

Wicked (8): Best Picture, Actress (Erivo), Supporting Actress (Grande-Butera), Production Design, Costumes, Sound, Makeup/Hair and Visual Effects.

Dune: Part Two (7): Best Picture, Cinematography, Editing, Costumes, Production Design, Sound and Visual Effects.

A Complete Unknown (6): Best Picture, Actor (Chalamet), Supporting Actor (Norton), Adapted Screenplay. Sound and Costumes.

The Substance (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Moore), Original Screenplay and Makeup/Hair.

Sing Sing (3): Best Picture, Actor (Domingo) and Adapted Screenplay.

The Wild Robot (3); Best Animated Feature, Score and Song.

Now...we wait...

MTFB Oscar Update: A Look at Tight Races / ICYMI: The Producers Guild and TFF

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: A LOOK AT TIGHT RACES

In today's update I'm spotlighting the instances in major categories that are tight.

Best Picture:  It feels like seven films are safely locked: Conclave, Anora, Emilia Perez, The Brutalist, Wicked, A Complete Unknown and Dune Part Two.  The last three slots look like a fight between The Substance, A Real Pain, Nickel Boys and Sing Sing.  Also, All We Imagine as Light could sneak in with massive support from non-domestic members of the Academy.

I'm actually thinking that The Substance is nearly locked.  I won't be particularly surprised at any arrangement of Real Pain, Nickel Boys or Sing Sing in that last two slots.  I would be surprised if All We Imagine makes the list of ten.  I'd really like to see September 5 make it.  We'll see when I post the MTFB FINAL NOMINATION PREDICTIONS IN A SPECIAL POST ON WEDNESDAY.

Best Direction: Locks: Corbet, Baker, Bergen and Audiard.  Last spot: Mangold, Villenueve, Fargeat, Ross or Kapadia.  

Best Actress: Locks: Moore, Erivo, Madison and Gascon.  Last Spot: Torres, Jean-Baptiste, Jolie or Kidman.  Shocker: Winslet.

Best Actor: Locks: Fiennes, Brody, Chalamet.  Last two spots: Domingo, Stan (Apprentice), Craig, Grant.  Shocker: Eisenberg.

Best Supporting Actress: Locks: Saldana, Grande-Butera, Rossellini.  Last two spots: Barbaro, Curtis, Jones, Gomez, Qualley or Deadwyler.  The chicken bones are tending toward Curtis to grab one of these two remaining spots.  Shocker: Fanning.

Best Supporting Actor: Locks: Culkin, Norton, Borisov and Pearce.  Last spot: Strong, Washington, Maclin or Tucci.  Shocker: Magaro.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Locks: Conclave, Emilia Perez, A Complete Unknown.  Last two spots: Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, Dune Part Two, Wicked, Inside Out 2.  Shocker: Hit Man .

Best Original Screenplay: Locks: Anora, The Brutalist and A Real Pain.  Last two spots: The Substance, September 5, All We Imagine as Light or Hard Truths.  Shockers: Challengers or The Seed of the Sacred Fig.

Best Animated Feature: Locks: The Wild Robot, Flow and Inside Out 2.  Last two spots: Memoir of a Snail, Wallace and Gromet: Vengeance Most Fowl, Moana 2, Piece by Piece.  Shocker: Chicken for Linda.

Best International Film: Locks: Emilia Perez, The Seed of the Sacred Fig and I'm Still Here.  Last two spots: Vermiglio, The Girl with the Needle, Flow, Kneecap or Dahomey.  Shocker: 

Best Documentary Feature: Locks:  (probably): No Other Land, Sugar cane and Daughters.  Last two spots: Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat, Dahomey, Will & Harper, The Remarkable Life of Ibelin or Black Box.  Shocker: Union.

ICYMI: THE PRODUCERS GUILD AND TFF

The Producers Guild of America (PGA) announced their own nominees for Best Film last Thursday after MTFB had posted for the day.  So, doing my due diligence, here are their ten nominees (including the FIVE TFF #51 films in Bold):

Anora

The Brutalist

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Emilia Perez

A Real Pain

September 5

The Substance

Wicked.

September 5 was a pleasant surprise.  Tough for Sing Sing and Nickel Boys.  I'll be honest, though, I've thought Nickel Boys Oscar chances were dicey from the start based on how my Telluride crowd reacted to it and also the film's ratings for both MTFB's People's and Professional's polls.

So, could half the Best Pic field be comprised of TFF #51 films?  It could happen.  Previously I have noted that TFF has had four films make the Best Picture lineup a couple of times but never five.  Of course, Sing Sing could bump September 5 or A Real Pain off the Producers' list putting TFF films back at the most four TFF films making the lineup. 

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