The Golden Globes are done, the Writer's Guild nominations are in (with some weirdness)...and we're less than two weeks away from nominations being announced...here's The Clearinghouse (using data from: In Contention, And the Winner Is, Gurus of Gold, The Envelope, The Oscar Guy, Awards Circuit, Film Experience, Rope of Silicon, and Film Misery). As always TELLURIDE FILMS IN CAPS AND BOLD.
Best Picture: 1) The Hurt Locker, 2) Avatar, 3) UP IN THE AIR, 4) Inglorious Basterds, 5) Precious, 6) AN EDUCATION, 7) Invictus, 8) Up, 9) A Serious Man, 10) District 9, 11) Nine, 12) The Messenger, 13) A Single Man, 14) Star Trek, 15) The Hangover
Hot: District 9, Star Trek, The Hangover
Not: Up in the Air
Gone: The Last Station, Crazy Heart
Comment: The top 10 are pretty solid this week. I am surprised Nine still has any wind in its sails...UITA suffers its first real drop in popularity this week...but I still think it will win Best Picture. And The Hangover gets a boost from its Golden Globe win as Best Comedy/Musical.
I also still think The Messenger and The Last Station could sneak in here...and I'm also still beating the drum for The Road.
Best Director: 1) Kathryn Bigelow/Hurt Locker, 2) James Cameron/Avatar, 3) JASON REITMAN/UP IN THE AIR, 4) Quentin Tarantino/Inglorious Basterds, 5) Lee Daniels/Precious, 6) Clint Eastwood/Invictus, 7) LONE SCHERFIG/AN EDUCATION, 8) The Coen Brothers/A Serious Man, 9) Neil Blomkamp/District 9, 10 ) Rob Marshall/Nine.
Hot: Blomkamp and Marshall
Gone: Michael Haneke
Comment: The battle for the last spot is still between Daniels and Eastwood and Daniels now seems to have the inside track. The top 4 spots are solid. Neil Blomkamp benefits from the Dist. 9 surge and Marshall from the multiple Golden Globe noms for Nine.
Best Actor: 1) Jeff Bridges/Crazy Heart, 2) GEORGE CLOONEY/UP IN THE AIR, 3) Colin Firth/A Single Man, 4) Morgan Freeman/Invictus, 5) Jeremy Renner/Hurt Locker, 6) VIGGO MORTENSEN/THE ROAD, 7) Daniel Day-Lewis/Nine, 8) Michael Stuhlbarg/A Serious Man, 9) Tobey Maguire/Brothers, 10) Matt Damon/The Informant
Hot: Damon
Gone: Ben Foster/The Messenger
Comment: Renner seems to have solidified his place as a nominee. Moretensen is the spoiler.
Best Actress: 1) Meryl Streep/Julie & Julia, 2) CAREY MULLIGAN/AN EDUCATION, 3) Sandra Bullock/Blind Side, 4) Gabourey Sidibe/Precious, 5) HELEN MIRREN/THE LAST STATION, 6) Marion Cotillard/Nine, 7) ABBY CORNISH/BRIGHT STAR, 8) Emily Blunt/Young Victoria, 9) Saroise Ronan/The Lovely Bones, 10) (tie) Melanie Laurent/Inglorious Basterds and Penelope Cruz/Broken Embraces.
Hot: Laurent
Comment: Anybody but the top 5 getting a nomination would be a stunner.
Best Supporting Actor: 1) Christoph Waltz/Inglorious Basterds, 2) Woody Harrelson/The Messenger, 3) CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER/THE LAST STATION, 4) Stanley Tucci/The Lovely Bones, 5) Matt Damon/Invictus, 6) ALFRED MOLINA/AN EDUCATION, 7) Christian McKay/Orson Welles and Me, 8) Anthony Mackie/Hurt Locker, 9) Alec Baldwin/It's Complicated, 10) PETER SAARSGARD/AN EDUCATION.
Comment: Waltz continues to have a perfect score. Tucci is still not suffering from the collapse of The Lovely Bones. I think Damon, Molina and McKay are duking it out for the last spot.
Best Supporting Actress: 1) Mo'Nique/Precious, 2) ANNA KEDNDRICK/UP IN THE AIR, 3) VERA FARMIGA/UP IN THE AIR, 4) Julianne Moore/A Single Man, 5) Penelope Cruz/Nine, 6) Samantha Morton/The Messenger, 7) Judi Dench/Nine, 8) (tie) Marion Cotillard/Public Enemies, Diane Kruger/Ingloroius Basterds, 10) Melanie Laurent/Ingloroius Basterds
Comment: Mo'Nique maintains her perfect score. The battle is between Cruz and Morton for the fifth nom. The top four are solid. Kendrick is the only one with a wisp of a chance to unseat Mo'Nique.
Best Adapted Screenplay: 1) UP IN THE AIR, 2) Precious, 3) AN EDUCATION, 4) Invictus, 5) Fantastic Mr. Fox, 6) District 9, 7) Julie & Julia, 8) THE LAST STATION, 9) (tie) A Single Man and Where the Wild Things Are.
Hot: A Single Man
Gone: Into the Loop
Best Original Screenplay: 1) (tie) The Hurt Locker and Ingloroius Basterds, 3) A Serious Man, 4) (500) Days of Summer, 5) Up, 6) Avatar, 7) It's Complicated, 8) The Hangover, 9) The White ribbon, 10) The Messenger
Gone: BRIGHT STAR
Comment: The top 3 spots are secure...after that..any one's guess about the last 2 spots. If I were betting right now I'd go with District 9 and Julie and Julia displacing Invictus and Mr. Fox...although I'd love to see The Last Station sneak in.
And...
Documentary: 1) (tie) The Cove and Food Inc., 3) Burma VJ, 4) Mugabe and the White African, 5) The Beaches of Agnes, 6) Every Little Step, 7) Under Our Skin, 8) (tie) Soundtrack of a Revolution and Facing Ali, 10) Garbage Dreams
Hot: Garbage Dreams
Not: Every Little Step
Gone: Valentino: The Emperor
Comment: Horse race at the top between The Cove and Food Inc. Everything else is just playing to get a nomination.
Animated: 1) Up, 2) Fantastic Mr. Fox, 3) Coraline, 4) The Princess and the Frog, 5) Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs, 6) Ponyo, 7) A Christmas Carol, 8) Monsters and Aliens, 9) 9 10) Ice Age 3
Comment: Up..nuff said
Foreign Film: 1) A PROPHET, 2) THE WHITE RIBBON, 3) SAMSON AND DELILAH, 4) (tie) Broken Promises, Mother, Baaria, 7) Forever Enthralled
Comment: Also look for THE LAST TRUCK in short documentary. Ribbon and Prophet battle for the prize...no other film is probably going to challenge to actually win the Oscar.
Bottom Lines: Big 8 Noms: UITA-6, Precious-5, Hurt Locker, Inglorious Basterds, and Invictus-4, An Education, and Up-3, and Avatar, Serious Man, and The Last Station-2.
Noms and Nears together: Inglorious Basterds-7, UITA, An Education, and Nine-6, Hurt Locker, Precious, and Invictus-5, Serious Man, District 9, and The Messenger-4, Avatar, Up, A Single Man and The Last Station-3, Julie & julia, It's Complicated, and Fantastic Mr. Fox-2.
Telluride Noms-15...Nears: 6 (Other nears: Bright Star, The Road).
