While We're Waiting... / While We're Waiting Part Two / I've Been Hearing...Nichols? Jolie?

 WHILE WE'RE WAITING...

Here's a quick rundown of films playing the Venice fest that might be possible candidates to make the trans-Atlantic journey to the San Juans.

Competition category:

Maestro/B. Cooper

The Killer/D. Fincher

The Captain/M. Garrone

Poor Things/Y. Lanthimos

El Conde/P. Larrain

The most serious possibilities are El Conde and Poor Things.   Maestro and The Killer are the least likely.  Also Searchlight/Disney's choice to move Poor Things' release to Dec. 8th may indicate that the Yorgos Lanthimos film may just play Venice.

Out of Competition category:

The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar/W. Anderson

Daaaaaali!/Q. Dupieux

The Caine Mutiny Court Martial/W. Friedkin

Honestly my feeling for each of these is that they're weak candidates.  Also, Caine Mutiny's inclusion is more of a "wish-it-into existence" inclusion rather than based on any rational analysis.

Orrizzonti Extra category:

Day of the Fight/J. Huston

Mostly because I am intrigued by Jack Huston's directing debut.

WHILE WE'RE WAITING PART TWO...

World of Reel posted an updating list on Wednesday last week of possible festival films that have yet to be announced for any fest.  Here that is:

“The Bikeriders” (Jeff Nichols)

“Love Lies Bleeding” (Rose Glass)

“The Actor” (Duke Johnson)

“Dream Scenario” (Kristoffer Borgli)

“Rebel Ridge” (Jeremy Saulnier)

“MaXXXine” (Ti West)

“Civil War” (Alex Garland)

“Strangers” (Andrew Haigh)

“L’Empire” (Bruno Dumont)

“Wizards” (David Michod)

“NightBitch” (Marielle Heller)

“Limonov” (Kirill Serebrennikov)

“Havoc” (Gareth Evans)

“I Saw the TV Glow” (Jane Schoenbrun)

“Shirley” (John Ridley)

“Silent Night” (John Woo)

“Without Blood” (Angelina Jolie)

“Foe” (Garth Davis)

“Holland, Michigan” (Mimi Cave)

“Leave the World Behind” (Sam Esmail)

ADDITIONS:

“Apartment 7A“ (Natalie Erika James)

“Duchess” (Neil Marshall)

“Freaky Tales” (Anna Boden, Ryan Fleck)

“Horizon: An American Saga” (Kevin Costner)

“The Marsh King’s Daughter” (Neil Burger)

“Monkey Man” (Dev Patel)

“Pussy Island” (Zoë Kravitz)

“Road House” (Doug Liman)

“Spaceman” (Johan Renck)

“Unfrosted: The Pop-Tart Story” (Jerry Seinfeld)

Best TFF #50 possibilities here:

Strangers/Haigh

Shirley/Ridley

The Bikeriders/Nichols (see below)

Without Blood/Jolie (see below)

The Actor/Johnson

Love Lies Bleeding/Glass

Nightbitch/Heller

I'VE BEEN HEARING...NICHOLS? JOLIE?

(photo compilation via People)

Lots of buzz that Jeff Nichols The Bikeriders might be a serious candidate for a Telluride slot.  Granted it's a lot of Twitter or X or Elon's Crazy Playhouse...but the buzz there is a real.

Similarly, a late-breaking title that might be a T-ride potential is Angelina Jolie's Without Blood.  Jolie was in Telluride in 2017 with her First They Killed My Father.

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Ten Bets #6-Post Toronto Announcement and the Venice Lineup / Saltburn for TFF #50 / Toronto Docs Announcement Points to Morris

TEN BETS #6-POST TORONTO'S FIRST ANNOUNCEMENT AND THE VENICE LINEUP

Here's a look a last week's Ten Bets and Other Possibilities with films that I believe the TIFF announcement on Monday revealed as films that will play T-ride and highlighted in yellow.

1) The Holdovers/Alexander Payne

2) Poor Things/Yorgos Lanthimos

3) Saltburn/Emerald Fennell

4) Strangers/Andrew Haigh

5) Nyad/Chin and Vasarhelyi

6) Monster/Kore-eda

7) Anatomy of a Fall/Justine Triet

8) Fallen Leaves/Aki Kaurismaki

9) The Teachers' Lounge/Ilker Catak

10) The Pot-au-Feu/Trinh Hung

Other possibilities: The Zone of Interest/Glazer, The End/Oppenheimer, El Conde/Pablo Larrain, Freud's Last Session/Brown, The Royal Hotel/Green, Rustin/Wolfe, The American Buffalo/Burns and Shirley/Ridley.

The only film from the above list that the Monday TIFF list nuked from the lists above was Hirokazu Kore-eda's Monster.  Everything else among the Bets and Possibilities is still in play.

There were three other films that Toronto announced that I had been giving serious consideration to as potential TFF #50 choices that will not make it to T-ride:

La Chimera

Lee

The New Boy

How'd we get to this?  Toronto's listed premiere status listed for each film selected.

If TIFF labels a film as a World Premiere or a North American Premiere that means no Telluride.

If TIFF labels a film an International or Canadian Premiere it means "Maybe" Telluride.

An "International Premiere" is defined as playing for the first time outside its nation of origin.  So when you see that designation you also have to look at the nation it came from.  If it is a film from the United States that means it will have played somewhere in the U.S. prior to its Toronto debut.  Usually that can only mean one of three places: Sundance, Fantastic Fest or Telluride.

That's why I think The Holdovers, Rustin, Nyad, Wildcat and Fingernails will screen for the first time for the public at Telluride.

Fair Play was also announced as an International Premiere and hails from the U.S. but screened at Sundance.

Another International Premiere was A Difficult Year but it screened in its home nation of France.

A "Canadian Premiere" indicates that the film will have already screened somewhere in North America.  That also usually means Sundance, Fantastic Fest or Telluride.

That's how we get to Cannes films Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest.

The Royal Hotel is listed as a Canadian Premiere and doesn't get the International label as it will not have screened in either of its "home" countries of The U.K. or Australia.

Finally Flora and Son is listed as a Canadian Premiere and played Sundance and maybe because it will not have played in one of its "home" countries Ireland, that's why it labeled Canadian rather than International.

Here's the link to Variety's coverage of the TIFF announced films.

As for Venice...their announcement never closes any film out of a Telluride possibility.  What it can do is show you films that could make it.  Then, a few week's later, when Venice announces its actual schedule you have to pay attention to the films that have been scheduled in the first three days or so.  It's not as precise as the Toronto info but you can often get a good bead on a number of other films that will make the trip to the San Juans.

That said, here are Venice/Golden Lion competition titles announced Tuesday that we should watch for on Venice schedule release day:

Maestro/B. Cooper

Origin/.DuVernay

The Killer/Fincher

The Captain/M. Garrone

The Green Border/A. Holland

Poor Things/Y. Lanthimos

El Conde/P. Larrain

Ferrari/M. Mann

Day of the Fight/J. Huston

The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar/W. Anderson

Daaaaaali!/Q. Dupiuex

The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial/W. Friedkin

Here's the lineup via the official Venice Film Fest website.

And FINALLY, with all that said, here is the sixth iteration of my "Ten Bets" for TFF #50:

1) The Holdovers

2) Nyad

3) Anatomy of a Fall

4) The Zone of Interest

5) The Royal Hotel

6) Rustin

7) Wildcat

8) Fingernails

9) Saltburn (see below)

10) The Pigeon Tunnel (see below)

Other possibilities:  Fallen Leaves, Poor Things, The Teachers' Lounge, The Pot-au-Feu, The End, El Conde, Freud's Last Session, Shirley, The American Buffalo.

SALTBURN FOR TFF #50 CONFIRMED BY BARBERA

Barry Keoghan in Saltburn via World of Reel

Much like last year, Venice chief Alberto Barbera has spilled some tea regarding a film that he says will platy at TFF #50.  Barbera says that Emerald Fennell's much sought after Saltburn will screen first at Telluride.

World of Reel reported that Barbera revealed the Saltburn news via an interview with Screen Daily.  WOR Editor-in-Chief Jordan Ruimy writing:

"Venice’s Alberto Barbera basically confirming my original intel, three hours later. “Saltburn” is going to Telluride"

That's good enough for me.  Saltburn is in.  Here's the link to the World of Reel story.

TORONTO DOCS ANNOUNCEMENT POINTS TO MORRIS

The Toronto International Film Festival announced the documentaries selected for its lineup on Wednesday and based on premiere designation it looks as if Errol Morris' film about famed spy novelist...and real life spy John le Carre will play as a part of the program for TFF #50.  The film is titled The Pigeon Tunnel.

Morris is a multiple-time presenter at T-ride with offerings such as Tabloid, Wormwood, The B-Side and more.  Plus his position as a member of the  "Esteemed Council of Advisors" suggests that his latest doc venture would be a likely choice for T-ride.

The TIFF designation of the film as an International Premiere is a strong indication that The Pigeon Tunnel is headed for the San Juans.

Check the official TIFF announcement here.

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What the Hell Is Going On? / We Have a Poster! / Toronto Announces Some Films Today?

 WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON?

Figuring out Telluride is never an easy task but this year takes the cake.  Writers' strike, Actors' strike...nothing is stable...all is squishy.

Late Friday/Saturday:

1) Guadagnino's Challengers backs out of Opening Venice and sets a new release date in late April 2024.  Any chance that it might have been a TFF #50 possibility is all but obliterated.  The reason?  No Zendaya because of the SAG-Aftra strike.

2) Bradley Cooper's Maestro going to New York?  That's what World of Reel suggests based on reporting from Indiewire.  If true, that means no TFF #50 bow for the film from Netflix.

3) Also seemingly out of Telluride 2023 is Hayao Miyazaki's anticipated The Boy and the Heron which Indiewire's Eric Kohn suggests might be Opening Toronto '23.  And yes, that would mean no TFF #50 play.

4) However in that same Kohn/Indiewire post there seems to be a level of assurance that Ethan Hawkes' Wildcat WILL PLAY in T-ride over Labor Day.  Kohn writes:

"Buyers are already circling potential TIFF pickups like Ethan Hawke’s “Wildcat,” which stars his daughter Maya Daisy Hawke as Flannery O’Connor. Hawke plans to promote the movie, also expected at Telluride"

5) Intriguingly...none of the news of the last 72+ hours would preclude a North American premiere of either Scorsese's Killers of the Flower Moon or Fincher's The Killer.  Think on that.

WE HAVE A POSTER!

TFF's 50th edition poster from Meow Wolf artist Luke Dorman (who did the super TFF #48 poster) has been released:

The cool thing here is that Dorman includes Easter eggs for all of the previous TFF posters.  

TORONTO ANNOUNCES SOME FILMS TODAY?

Media reports indicate that the Toronto International Film Festival is likely to announce some of their confirmed titles today after having slid by on July 19th with only a single title named.

You'll want to be paying attention if this actually transpires to the "premiere status" announced for each film as that can give us clues as to whether or not a film may be playing at TFF #50.

I'll be on the road when and if this announcement happens so I may be a bit late to the game in as far as noting what might be in and out vis-a-vis TFF #50.  Rest assured, MTFB will get caught up ASAP.

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Ten Bets #5 for TFF #50 / The Holdovers Trailer / TIFF Is a Whiff / If I Were Telluride...

TEN BETS #5 FOR TFF #50

Well, normally today's post would be full of me crowing about how prescient I have been or whining about how thick I've been because it's usually the first MTFB post after Toronto has announced a bunch of titles for their fest, complete with their revealing premiere status.  However, that did not happen (more about this below in the TIFF IS a Whiff segment).

Consequently, MTFB doesn't know much more than it did last week.  These SAG-Aftra and WAG strikes have demonstrably caused major havoc among the upcoming fall film festivals.  Included in that uproar has been some speculation that some fests might not even happen.

Ugh!

So with that table setting, here's a review of last week's Ten Bets:

1) The Holdovers/Alexander Payne

2) Poor Things/Yorgos Lanthimos

3) Saltburn/Emerald Fennell

4) Strangers/Andrew Haigh

5) Nyad/Chin and Vasarhelyi

6) Monster/Kore-eda

7) Anatomy of a Fall/Justine Triet

8) Fallen Leaves/Aki Kaurismaki

9) The Teachers' Lounge/Ilker Catak

10) The Pot-au-Feu/Trinh Hung

And with announcements from both Toronto and Venice expected next week...here's your updated Ten Bets:

1) The Holdovers/Alexander Payne

2) Poor Things/Yorgos Lanthimos

3) Saltburn/Emerald Fennell

4) Strangers/Andrew Haigh

5) Nyad/Chin and Vasarhelyi

6) Monster/Kore-eda

7) Anatomy of a Fall/Justine Triet

8) Fallen Leaves/Aki Kaurismaki

9) The Teachers' Lounge/Ilker Catak

10) The Pot-au-Feu/Trinh Hung

Other possibilities: The Zone of Interest/Glazer, The End/Oppenheimer, El Conde/Pablo Larrain, Freud's Last Session/Brown, The Royal Hotel/Green, Rustin/Wolfe, The American Buffalo/Burns and Shirley/Ridley.

That's right.  MTFB stands pat for this week.

THE HOLDOVERS TRAILER

Since my last post on July 17,  Focus Features has dropped a trailer for Alexander Payne's The Holdovers.  After a wobble in my thinking a couple of weeks back, The Holdovers has returned to the top of the Ten Bets as the film that I have the most confidence will play TFF #50.  Of course, I'd urge you to remember that I also had Todd Haynes' May December in that top spot for exactly one week until we found out that it was going to North American Premiere at New York's fest.

At any rate, here's The Holdovers trailer via YouTube:

TIFF IS A WHIFF

As you may have heard or surmised, the Toronto International Film Festival was to have announced some of the films that would play there yesterday.  They announced exactly one.  Atom Egoyan's Seven Veils revealed as a World Premiere.  So we can say no Seven Veils at TFF #50.

Normally yesterday's announcement would have included a substantial number of films along with their premiere status which would have provided us with a pretty clear idea about films that would or would not make The SHOW.

But the single film reveal, which TIFF did not prepare any one for, really tells us that the fall film festivals are scrambling as are studios, distributors and producers in this dual strike world.

Reportedly, we could see a more complete announcement from TIFF next week and also there are reports that Venice will go forward with their announcement scheduled on July 25.

Buckle your seat belts...

IF I WERE TELLURIDE...

And I'm not Telluride. 

The fest has made it very, very clear that I am NOT.  But if I were...I'd fill those Guest Directors spots with the biggest names in acting that would say yes and have them each program a film.

The actors are idle...except for walking the picket line. The Guest Director slots...to the best that I'm able to discern...would not violate any provisions of the strike protocols.

Imagine...Tom Cruise...who has been the face of movies for the last year and who has been a Telluride-ite...programs a Kubrick.

Leo DiCaprio...at liberty currently...comes to town and programs a Scorsese.

Meryl Streep...who has been to T-ride before...programs an Eastwood.

Consider this... six of the world's greatest living actors getting to choose one film to screen and then talking about it afterwards.  That might be worth the ticket price by itself.

PS...I volunteer to lead the Q and A for a couple of those my own self.

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So There's This Strike Thing... / Indiewire Reports...Nyad? / Could We See Hayao After All?

SO THERE'S THIS STRIKE THING...

I wrote on Thursday that the SAG-AFTRA strike had been called and that there was some uncertainty about what effect that might have on Telluride and other film festivals.  As of this morning's post there really isn't a clear idea yet.  I am waiting to see if the first casualty for film fests is that either Toronto or Venice or both alter their announcement plans.  Toronto is set to announced their first wave of films on Wednesday and Venice is to follow next week on July 25.

I suspect that most festival-goers are crossing their collective fingers that the strike is settled quickly and festivals can proceed normally.  Frankly, I don't think the signs point to a rapid conclusion and past some undefined date the potential for "talent" to be on site to promote their films becomes impossible.

I ran across a good early take on the strike and festivals from Variety's Clayton Davis.  Here's the link to that.

Davis writes in part:

"Of all the upcoming festivals, Telluride may be the least impacted by the SAG and WGA strikes. That’s because there are no press conferences and lavish step-and-repeats outside of the various venues around town." 

Davis reports later in the post that:

“Telluride will be mostly unaffected,” one studio executive tells Variety. “I can’t say the same for the others.”

There have even been some speculation in the ether that Telluride might end up landing some screenings that might not otherwise have made the trip to Colorado as a result of distribs/studios and producers baling on original plans.

INDIEWIRE REPORTS...NYAD?

Anne Thompson, also writing last Thursday about the effect of SAG-AFTRA'S strike on the upcoming film festivals revealed that Annette Bening was to have been a TFF tribute recipient (and I guess still could be should the strike be settled in time) and that her film Nyad would be a part of the TFF #50 lineup.  Nyad was #5 on last week's Ten Bets list.

Thompson also implies that it's likely that Nyad stills screens in Telluride.

From her post:

"Scratch rumored tribute star Annette Bening, star of Netflix release “Nyad.” Directors like Jimmy Chin and E. Chai Vasarhelyi will be carrying the ball at Telluride"

Take a look at the complete post here.

COULD WE SEE HAYAO AFTER ALL?

Hardly any hard news about what is purportedly animation master Miyazaki Hayao's final film has been forthcoming over the past few months.  I have noted here that Hayao has had a sturdy presence at Telluride over the last couple of decades but consistent indications that his new film would not be playing any festivals has kept me from even considering it for a place among the Ten Best Bets for Telluride or even among the possibilities.

That, however. might be changing.

Variety's Patrick Frater, among others, reported this weekend that U.S. distributor Gkids had acquired what has been known as How Do You Live and will release it in the U.S. under the title The Boy and the Heron.

Even more intriguing was this passage from the reporting:

"Gkids indicated that it would give “The Boy and the Heron” a North American theatrical release “later this year.” The picture is also expected to make appearances at various fall festivals." 

My thinking is that if festivals are back in play then Telluride has a very good shot at screening the new film as a part of TFF #50.

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LATE BREAKING: SAG-AFTRA AUTHROIZES STRIKE / May December Not in September / MTFB's Ten Bets #4 / Ioncinema Predicts Venice

LATE BREAKING: SAG/AFTRA AUTHORIZES STRIKE

The National Board of SAG-AFTRA officially announced that the organization's members would be on strike at noon Pacific Time today.  The strike goes into effect at midnight (Pacific) tonight.

In addition to a shutdown of active film making those of us who pay attention to film festivals note that this action means that no SAG-AFTRA member will be allowed to promote projects in which they are involved.  How this affects fest like Telluride and others is not totally clear.  I have seen some speculation that some studios may be reluctant to send a film to a fest or feasts without the fire power of its stars being able to accompany a film.

Will news outlets shift the amount and intensity of their coverage with no talent to pursue?

Whatever happens it seems that the Fall Film Fests have a new wrinkle to deal with.

Roger Friedman of ShowBiz411.com provides some analysis about the potential effect of the strike on fall film fests including Telluride.

MAY DECEMBER NOT IN SEPTEMBER

The headline above is my faux-clever way of passing on that it appears that Todd Haynes' May December will NOT be playing at Telluride 2023. 

The New York Film Fest announced on Tuesday from the frequent TFF attendee, will North American Premiere as the Opening Night Film for NYFF.  The "North American Premiere" status tells us that the film will not have played anywhere in North America prior to its NYFF gig and that means no Telluride play.

Honestly, the last couple of weeks has really got me thinking that I don't have much of a grasp of what's going on this year.  

Haynes has been a frequent TFF presence but his films don't always play in the San Juans...just very, very often.

For example, his 2019 thriller, Dark Waters, also premiered at NYFF and did not play TFF but then you have to go all the way back to 1998's Velvet Underground to find a non-Telluride screening.  Haynes has bowed The Velvet Underground, Wonderstruck, Carol, I'm Not There and Far From Heaven all did play TFF.

Which leads to...

MTFB'S TEN BETS #4

As you might expect, with the above news about may December, the new "Ten Bets" has some changes.

Additionally, as a warning, next week (7/19) we get a big slew of announcements from Toronto that historically wrecks the "Bets".  Maybe I should re-think my hobbies...

Last week's Ten Bets were:

1) May December/Haynes

2) Poor Things/Lanthimos

3) Strangers/Haigh

4) The Holdovers/Payne

5) Monster/Kore-eda

6) Saltburn/Fennell

7) Nyad/ Chin and Vasarhelyi

8) Anatomy of a Fall/Triet

9) El Conde/Larrain

10) The Teachers' Lounge/Catak

Now...with some chagrin, here's this week's Ten Bets:

1) The Holdovers/Alexander Payne

2) Poor Things/Yorgos Lanthimos

3) Saltburn/Emerald Fennell

4) Strangers/Andrew Haigh

5) Nyad/Chin and Vasarhelyi

6) Monster/Kore-eda

7) Anatomy of a Fall/Justine Triet

8) Fallen Leaves/Aki Kaurismaki

9) The Teachers' Lounge/Ilker Catak

10) The Pot-au-Feu/Trinh Hung

Other possibilities: The Zone of Interest/Glazer, The End/Oppenheimer, El Conde/Pablo Larrain, Freud's Last Session/Brown, The Royal Hotel/Green, Rustin/Wolfe, The American Buffalo/Burns, Priscilla/Coppola and Shirley/Ridley.

IONCINEMA PREDICTS VENICE

Ioncinema put together a three part list of 75 possibilities for the Venice Fest.  Some Venice films are very likely to subsequently play at Telluride.  From the Ioncinema lists, here's a guess about some of the films that might make the trans-Atlantic jump:

From Part One:

The Burial/Maggie Betts

Daaaaaali!/Quentin Dupieux

Drive-Away Dolls/Ethan Coen***

El Conde/Pablo Larrain

Fingernails/Christos Nikou

From Part Two:

The Captain/Matteo Garrone

Lee/Ellen Kuras

Love Lies Bleeding/Rose Glass

Maestro/Bradley Cooper

From Part Three:

Poor Things/Yorgos Lanthimos

Priscilla/Sofia Coppola***

Strangers/Andrew Haigh

**I'm actually fairly convinced that this film is going to play Toronto and play T-ride BUT, it's only one of two films that Ioncinema lists and specifically suggests that Telluride is a possibility.

***The other film that specifies that Telluride is a possibility

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Challengers to Open Venice / Speaking of Venice... / TFF #50 Poster???

CHALLENGERS TO OPEN VENICE

The Venice Film Festival announced last Thursday that Luca Guadagnino's Challengers would be their opening film.  Guadagninio's tennis set love triangle starring Zendaya, Mike Faist and Josh O'Connor has been sitting on my "maybe" list for TFF #50 for awhile mostly because of Luca's Bones and All and Salvatore: Shoemaker of Dreams having had appeared as apart of the TFF #49 program.

Now, its selection as the Opening Night film doesn't necessarily preclude it from also playing Telluride.  Heck, I write on here every year about paying attention to when Venice schedules their screenings as films that screen in the first 3-4 days can and often do move on to Telluride.  

However...

There is a winkle here. Venice Openers are not a consistent Telluride play.  It hasn't happened since 2018 when Damien Chazelle's First Man opened Venice and then came to TFF.  As a matter of fact, since I started attending Telluride in 2006, the Venice Opener has only then played Telluride six times:

2018: First Man

2017: Downsizing

2016: La La Land

2014: Birdman

2013: Gravity

2010: Black Swan

Again, all of this doesn't mean that Challengers won't make it to Telluride but it seems like a bit of an uphill struggle at this point.

[This story has been corrected from an earlier version which cited incorrect dates.]

SPEAKING OF VENICE...

Alberto Barbera, the director of the Venice Fest, is set to announce the bulk of their lineup on July 25th.  I checked in with World of reel which has been keeping a running list of possible Venetian titles for possible films that will do a stop in Telluride after making their World Premiere on the Lido.

WOR's latest came down on Friday.  You can see the complete list here.

From this latest speculation, here are my best guesses re: what could make the trip to Colorado:

Lee/Ellen Kuras

Priscilla/Sofia Coppola

Maestro/Bradley Cooper

Poor Things/Yorgos Lanthimos

El Conde/Pablo Larrain

Saltburn/Emerald Fenell

Strangers/Andrew Haigh

Fingernails/Christos Nikou

TFF #50 POSTER???

I wrote on June 26th about the lack of information regarding TFF 2023"S Guest Director(s).  Normally the Guest Director(s) is/are announced in June and, of late, usually the third week of June.  

However, I suspect that the Fest's leadership is following (at least to some extent) the playbook from TFF #40.  Back in 2013, I don't believe the Festival released any Guest Directing info until the lineup was announced the day before the fest began.

So I won't be surprised if that's how TFF plays it this time around.

But the poster...

For most of the years I've been blogging about Telluride the poster announcement was likely to happen in May or early-to-mid June.  That's true for 2009-2016.  We even knew the poster for TFF #40 on May 30th of that year.

Beginning with 2017, the announcement has come in July three of five times.  The exceptions are a way early announcement in 2021 (it came in February).  The other is from 2018 when Woody Pirtle was the artist but I haven't been able to pin down the date that The SHOW made that announcement.

The latest poster announcement I can find was Edwina White's for 2018 that came on July 22nd.

So, ultimately...you have to believe that we're right on the cusp of an announcement.  Maybe?

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Ten Bets #3 for TFF #50 / New Trailer for Killers of the Flower Moon / Fincher's The Killer and Venice? / 800,000

 TEN BETS #3 FOR TFF #50

Here's the third iteration of my "Ten Bets" for TFF #50.  As I post this morning we are just a couple of weeks away from the clarity that announcements from the Toronto International Film Festival can provide.  TIFF announces its first wave of Galas and Special Presentations along with their revealing "premiere status" on that day.  

TIFF announcement days are always exhilarating and heart breaking.  Exhilarating because it's often the first hard evidence of a film's disposition vis-a-vis Telluride and heartbreaking because inevitably films that I want to play Telluride are discovered on that day as World Premieres for TIFF and thus will not make the trip to southwest Colorado.

So that's coming on July 19th.  I'll attempt a little social media coverage on the 19th as information becomes available and then have a full on report on my regular posting day on July 20th.

All that said to get to this week's Ten Bets.

As a reminder, here are last week's Ten Bets:

1) The Holdovers/Payne

2) May December/Haynes

3) Nyad/Chin and Vasarhelyi

4) Strangers/Haigh

5) Poor Things/Lanthimos

6) Monster/Kore-eda

7) Anatomy of a Fall/Triet

8) El Conde/Larrain

9) Saltburn/Fennell

10) The End/Oppenheimer

Other possibilities: The Zone of Interest/Glazer, Freud's Last Session/Brown, The Teachers' Lounge/Catak, The Royal Hotel/Green, Rustin/Wolfe, The American Buffalo/Burns, Priscilla/Coppola and Shirley/Ridley.

And here's the update, the third Ten Bets for TFF #50:

1) May December/Haynes

2) Poor Things/Lanthimos

3) Strangers/Haigh

4) The Holdovers/Payne

5) Monster/Kore-eda

6) Saltburn/Fennell

7) Nyad/ Chin and Vasarhelyi

8) Anatomy of a Fall/Triet

9) El Conde/Larrain

10) The Teachers' Lounge/Catak

Other possibilities: The Zone of Interest/Glazer, Fallen Leaves/Kaurismaki, The End/Oppenheimer, The Pot-au-Feu/Hung,  Freud's Last Session/Brown, The Royal Hotel/Green, Rustin/Wolfe, The American Buffalo/Burns, Priscilla/Coppola and Shirley/Ridley.

NEW TRAILER FOR KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

Apple dropped a new trailer for my most anticipated film for 2023, Martin Scorsese's Killers of the Flower Moon.  The film is set for limited release on Oct. 6th and then opens wide on Oct. 20th. 

My guess, at this point is that Killers maybe plays the New York Film Festival prior to its release and bypasses both Telluride and Toronto.  I hope my assessment is way off.

As many know, I did a day of background work on the film. I can tell you that I'm not in either trailer.  Here's the new one:

 

FINCHER'S THE KILLER AND VENICE?

Michael Fassbender on the set of The Killer (via IMDb)

By and large I have discounted any possibility that David Fincher would return to Telluride this year with The Killer starring Michael Fassbender.  Up to now I have surmised that the film produced in part by Paramount and Plan B and distributed by Netflix likely wouldn't play any festival though its planned Nov. 10th release date would allow it to.

However, Jordan Ruimy's World of Reel reported on Sunday (7/2) that the door might still be open for the film to screen at Venice:

"On Friday, I was rather stunned by an Italian source telling me that Netflix is now thinking of bringing David Fincher’s “The Killer” to Venice. 

This source told me, “negotiations are underway, Barbera did see it and he wants it in competition. I’m not sure if he will be able to get it as the odds are 50/50 right now since Netflix would rather premiere it closer to the November release.”

Now, if the door is open for Venice, could it also be open for the jump to Telluride?  Fincher was the recipient of a Telluride tribute back in 2008 where Zodiac was screened in its entirety and scenes from The Curious Case of Benjamin Button were screened so he's been in the San Juans before.

Personally I'm still very skeptical that The Killer lands in Colorado and frankly I tend to buy the conventional wisdom that if The Killer plays a fest at all it will probably be New York.

But I'd like to be wrong.

800,000

Just passed another milestone in the history of MTFB last night as total views for the blog went beyond the 800,000 mark.  That means that each post of the 2,135 I have published since August 8th, 2008 has averaged 347.7 views.

Thanks for reading!

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One of Those Detective Stories / Venice and TIFF Announcements Looming / Ioncinema Looks at Toronto / World of Reel's Latest Venice List / The Playlist's Oscar List

ONE OF THOSE DETECTIVE STORIES

Every now and then I run across pieces of information that either enlighten me about what will play at TFF or , conversely, won't play at TFF.  Sometimes I get tidbits that tell me something but doesn't quite get all the way to a definitive conclusion.  That last circumstance happened at the end of this past week.

On Wednesday. last week, I got a message from a follower of MTFB that he'd seen an announcement from Focus Features that they were hosting a contest for a chance to get tickets to a Gala Presentation for one of their films on Saturday, Sept. 9th at Roy Thomson Hall.  If you really follow all of this Premiere status closely over these past few years, you're aware that Toronto has made clear that ONLY WORLD PREMIERES will play Roy Thomson on TIFF's opening weekend.

Then, couple of days later, I was reading Eric Lavallee's (Ioncinema) June 28 post entitled 2023 Toronto International Film Festival (Strictly) World Premiere Predictions!  As many of you know, a World Premiere at Toronto (except in extremely weird or confused instances) means a film will not play at Telluride).  Early in the piece Lavallee writes:

"My golden calf prognostication is Alexander Payne‘s The Holdovers. We are predicting that it’ll bypass Telluride and Venice and what is somewhat fitting is that the Focus Features property was actually picked up at TIFF last year in a private market screening for buyers."

Well, those sentences set me back.  I have had The Holdovers as #1 on this year's first Ten Bets. 

So, does this mean no Holdovers at Telluride?  

Maybe.  BUT... not necessarily.  The other big Focus title that's on everyone's radar has been Ethan Coen's Drive-Away Dolls.  That film is set for U.S. release on Sept. 22nd.  It's the only other Focus property that I can see that would fill the bill for a Gala Opening at TIFF on Sept. 9th.

Jordan Ruimy writing at World of Reel in a piece about Venice's announcement date wrote this:

"Alexander Payne’s “The Holdovers” would be a great get for Venice, but Focus, which is handling the film, has a tight friendship with Toronto and might just skip the Lido. The same could potentially be said about Ethan Coen’s “Drive-Away Dolls,” which is also Focus."

That sounds to me like Ruimy might be looking at the same information I am.

The bottom line seems to be that, at a minimum, one of the two films will be playing at Roy Thomson/TIFF on Sept. 9th and consequently will not play TFF #50.  It could actually portend that neither film is In Telluride on Labor Day weekend.

My best guess is that The Holdovers still plays at TFF and that Drive-Away Dolls is what fills the bill in Toronto.  I just have a hard time believing that Alexander Payne, a member of the TFF Board of Directors (at least as of last year), a past TFF Guest Director and who has screened three of his films at the fest since 2011, won't be bringing his latest film to the 50th TFF celebration.

Saying the same thing this week in his "Halfway to Oscars 2024 Qualifying: 40 Films in the Mix" post for The Playlist, Gregory Ellwood wrote:

“The Holdovers“*

Alexander Payne and Paul Giamatti reunite for the sort of melancholy dramedy that put them both on the map. If it doesn’t have its world premiere at Telluride (Payne attends almost every year), we’ll be shocked."

So, I'll be anxiously watching Toronto announcements to see if this puzzle can be solved.  And speaking of announcements...

VENICE AND TOTONTO ANNOUNCEMENTS LOOMING

We have known for a bit that TIFF will announce a big chunk of their lineup on July 19th.  We found out over the last few days that, per Screen Daily , the Venice lineup announcement will be on July 25th.

Both announcement's can be instructive re: The SHOW.  Toronto's announcement's can, by virtue of their Premiere Status designation, can tell us whether a film will or won't play at Telluride.  It's not 100% accurate, but it's close.

Venice, on the other, doesn't actually eliminate any TFF possibility but doesn't confirm anything either.  It's lineup points to films that could still be in play for a Telluride berth.  The other piece of the Venice puzzle is to scour their screening schedule when it gets released.  As a general rule, if a film is scheduled for Venice during the first three days (four at the outside) it still has a decent chance of showing up in the San Juans.

So keep those factors in mind as we wait for the dominos to begin to fall over the next two-three weeks.

IONCINEMA LOOKS AT TORONTO

As mentioned above, Eric Lavallee at Ioncinema published a speculative list of films that he suggests could World Premiere at Toronto and thus not make the TFF #50th.  We've already dissected the claim that TIFF will World Premiere The Holdovers, but what other films are on Lavallee's list that I have been thinking might be prime contenders for  T-ride?  Here's a list culled from Lavallee's in the order presented in the post:

Nyad/Chin and Vasarhelyi

Nightbitch/Heller

Foe/Davis

Saltburn/Fennell

Tuesday/Pusic

Freud's Last Session/Brown

The Royal Hotel/Green

The entire post is linked here.

WORLD OF REEL'S LATEST VENICE LIST

World of Reel's Jordan Ruimy has updated his list of Venice possibilities with the fest's announcement date news this week.  Here are films from his list that could do the Venice/Telluride two-step categorized as "Good Chance", "Maybe" and "Outside Shot"...at least in my current estimation:

GOOD CHANCE:

El Conde/Larrain

Poor Things/Lanthimos

Strangers/Haigh

MAYBE:

Priscilla/Coppola

The Royal Hotel/Green

Saltburn/Fennell

OUTSIDE SHOT:

Maestro/Cooper

The Captain/Garrone

Fingernails/Nikou

Drive-Away Dolls/Coen...but, you know, see above.

AND FINALLY...THE PLAYLIST'S OSCAR LIST

I mentioned above the comment from Gregory Ellwood's piece this week for The Playlist concerning The Holdovers and it's possibility for Telluride.  So, naturally, I ran down his list of 40 possible Best Picture contenders to evaluate it for TFF #50 players.  Ellwood has the films categorized as: Likely, Close, In the Mix, Curious and Need Convincing.  From each, the TFF possibles are:

LIKELY:

The Zone of Interest/Glazer

CLOSE:

Maestro/Cooper

IN THE MIX:

Anatomy of a Fall

May December

Saltburn

CURIOUS:

The Bikeriders

The Book of Clarence

The Boys in the Boat

Freud's Last Session

Foe

The Holdovers

Nightbitch

Nyad

Perfect Days

The Pot au Fou

Poor Things

Priscilla

Rustin

Strangers

NEED CONVINCING:

Challengers

As an added note, Ellwood has Scorsese's Killer of the Flower Moon as "Likely" and Fincher's The Killer as "Need Convincing".

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