Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
11 days and counting to TFF #52. As the fest approaches Neon released both a poster and a trailer for Jafar Panahi's Plame d'Or winner , It Was Just an Accident. I've had it on my Ten Bets list throughout the summer. Last week's "Bets" had the film listed as the #2 Best Bet. The film is described at IMDb as this:
A small mishap triggers a chain reaction of ever-growing problems.
Fairly cryptic, eh?
The film opens in the U.S. on Oct 15th.
Here's the poster:
And the trailer from YouTube:
GUEST DIRECTOR ANYONE?
So it seems that TFF has established something of a new protocol about Guest Directors going forward. for the third consecutive year the fest is down to the wire without having named a Guest Director. as I wrote last year about this topic, for the past few years the fest announced the Guest Director usually in the third week of June. But for TFF #50 and #51, they did not announce them until the big reveal of official film titles on the Thursday before the festival began.
Last year, that was the timing for the reveal of Kenneth Lonergan as Guest Director and for TFF #50 the announcement of multiple Guest Directors was also revealed the day before the fest.
So...I'm beginning to think that becomes the new normal.
Maybe we find out earlier, but I have my doubts.
NEW YORK AND TORONTO RE-VISIT
Poster for Sirat (which might still be in play for Telluride-see below)
I wrote last week about the premiere designations confusion that exists for three films announced for both the New York Fest and Toronto. So, I thought I'd wander back to both festival's official online lineups to see if either fest had altered the premiere designations for any of the three films;
Landmarks: No change.
Blue Moon: No change.
A Private Life: No change.
Again all three films are listed as North American premieres by TIFF and as New York premieres for NYFF. NYFF designating them as New York premieres is the real oddity. It seems to me that if they're doing the North American premiere at Toronto then New York should have deemed them as U.S. premieres.
But there's more. I went through all 18 non-revival films that New York labels as U.S. premieres and the 22 that they label as New York premieres and found that Sirat and Barrio Triste also are listed in the same weird and contradictory way as Blue Moon, Landmarks and A Private Life. So, perhaps those two films are also actually still possible for Telluride.
Finally, a couple of other films are listed by NYFF as New York premieres and I can't detect why. They are With Hasan in Gaza and Evidence.
THE PEOPLE'S TELLURIDE-13TH EDITION
For the 13th year MTFB is soliciting your input for The People's Telluride. All you have to do is watch films during the fest and then, when it's all over, report to me your assessment of each film on a 1-5 scale with 1 being "UGH!" and 5 being "GREAT".
Report your ratings to: mpgort@gmail.com
The deadline for this year to turn in your ratings will be Sept. 15th.
I'll compile all of your responses and post those a few days after the festival.
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We expect to see a bunch of titles announced by the Toronto International Film Festival this morning and them clues as to what films will have been selected for Telluride. Stay tuned to MTFB social Media for those revelations.
On X: @Gort2 and/or @TheMTFB on Bluesky: @gort2.bsky.social
Of course I'll have a full re-cap on Thursday when I post next. That will also include the news from Venice (coming tomorrow) and a new Ten Bets list.
DISTRIBUTOR MONDAY #6: FOCUS FEATURES
While I have been running through the major distribution players based on recent appearances at the Telluride Film Festival I'm sure that many of you have noticed that in some instances the pickings seem lean. That's not the case with Focus Features. I count six films that Focus Features has that could possibly be playing Telluride.
Over the last nine fests, Focus has landed a film at T-ride in seven of those years. They missed in 2016 and 2019. They would have had at least one film in the Covid cancelled 2020 fest. Overall 10 Focus films have screened at Telluride since 2015 (11 if you count the 2020 TFF). Additionally, the Focus presence has increased recently with 7 of these titles playing with the last four years.
Here's their track record at Telluride since 2015:
2015: Suffragette
2017: Darkest Hour
2018: Boy Erased
2020: TFF #47 would have screened The Way I See It
2021: Belfast, The Card Counter
2022: Armageddon Time
2023: The Holdovers, The Bikeriders
2024: Conclave, Piece by Piece
So it's been a pretty solid run and I expect that Focus will have a robust presence at TFF #52. The six films that might make the lineup: Hamnet-which we think is locked as they have been announced as Canadian Premiere for Toronto-, Bugonia, The History of Sound, Anemone, Pressure and Song Sung Blue. Here's some info on each. Participants who have been to TFF previously are indicated with *. The films presented in alphabetical order:
Anemone. Dir. Ronan Day-Lewis. Stars: Daniel Day-Lewis*, Sean Bean, Samantha Morton. Release date: Oct. 10th. IMDb description:
Family bonds between fathers, sons, and brothers are explored as complex relationships unfold through personal journeys and generational conflicts.
Three rime Oscar winner Daniel Day-Lewis comes out of retirement as both acts and co-wrote the script. Of course, Day-Lewis was one of the tributees at TFF in 2007. Brad Pitt is one of two listed producers on the film. If you're not excited to see what this film is...well...
Bugonia. Dir. Yorgos Lanthimos*. Stars: Emma Stone*, Jesse Plemons*, Alicia Silverstone. Release date: Oct. 31st. IMDB description:
Two conspiracy-obsessed young men kidnap the high-powered CEO of a major company, convinced that she is an alien intent on destroying planet Earth.
After having screened The Favourite and Poor Things at Telluride both starring Emma Stone you have to think the chances are good that Bugonia will follow the same path from a Venice premiere to a Telluride play. A couple of notes, though. Lanthimos' Kinds of Kindness did not go that direction in 2024 having played Sundance and then Cannes. Also, all three of those films were distributed by Searchlight so what path Focus might desire.
Hamnet. Dir. Chloe Zhao*. Stars: Jesse Buckley*, Paul Mescal, Emily Watson*, Joe Alwyn. Release date: Dec. 12th. IMDb description:
The story of Agnes - the wife of William Shakespeare - as she struggles to come to terms with the loss of her only son, Hamnet. A human and heart-stopping story as the backdrop to the creation of Shakespeare's most famous play, Hamlet.
As mentioned above, this film seems to be lock for Telluride based on the Toronto Fest announcing it as a Canadian Premiere this past week.
The History of Sound. Dir. Oliver Hermanus*. Stars: Paul Mescal, Chris Cooper, Josh O'Connell. Release date: Sept. 12th.. IMDb description:
Two young men during World War I set out to record the lives, voices and music of their American countrymen.
Mescal and O'Connor are two of the hottest tickets around right now. I had been pretty high on its chances of a Telluride play what with the distributor and Oliver Hermanus having previously hacing Living at TFF #49, but the announced Sept. 12th release date is awfully soon after T-ride. Also, the lukewarm critical reception at Cannes also made me less bullish. Of late, I'm thinking it's still possible. A quick note: Mubi is also listed by IMDb as a domestic distributor of the film.
Pressure. Dir. Anthony Maras. Stars: Andrew Scott, Kerry Condon, Brendan Frasier, Damian Lewis, Chris Messina. Release date: TBD. IMDb description:
A ticking clock thriller based on the extraordinary true story of the 72 hours leading up to D-Day.
The more detailed plot summary reads:
In the seventy two hours leading up to D-Day, all the pieces are in place except for one key element--the British weather. Britain's chief meteorological officer James Stagg (Scott) is called upon to deliver the most consequential forecast in history, locking him into a tense standoff with the entire Allied leadership. The wrong conditions could devastate the largest ever seaborne invasion, while any delay risks German intelligence catching on. With only his trusted aide Captain Kay Summersby to confide in, and haunted by a catastrophic D-Day rehearsal, the final decision rests with Supreme Allied Commander Dwight D. Eisenhower. With only hours to go, the fate of the war and the lives of millions hang in the balance.
To be honest, this is more a "wish for" than an expectation. Its lack of an announced release date makes it questionable but I am very intrigued by the premise and it's Andrew Scott.
Song Sung Blue. Dir. Craig Brewer. Stars: Hugh Jackman*, Kate Hudson, Fisher Stephens*. Release date: Dec. 25th. IMDb description:
Lightning and Thunder, a Milwaukee husband and wife Neil Diamond tribute act, experience soaring success and devastating heartbreak in their musical journey together.
Look, this is doubtful as a TFF play but it sounds interesting. the Dec. 25th release date signals that Focus has some confidence that it will play well with audiences. So, you now...maybe.
Overall, could this be the first year that Focus lands more than two films at TFF? That's possible. Hamnet's in. Bugonia seems likely and maybe History of Sound. I'd love, love, love for Anemone to show up at T-ride as well as Pressure but they're chances are much more tenuous.
Chances:
Hamnet 95%
Bugonia 60%
The History of Sound 40%
Anemone 25%
Pressure 20%
Song Sung Blue 20%
VENICE SET TO ANNOUNCE-MANY POSSIBILITIES
The Venice Film Fest will announce the bulk of its lineup tomorrow. As close observers know, over the years there has usually been a substantial overlap between films that play Venice and then Telluride. So the information we get on what Venice will screen this year will, by itself neither rule in or rule out a T-ride play. Of more import to our Telluride calculus is Venice's schedule which will be announced in about three weeks. Films that screen in the first 2-4 days have a shot at also getting set up to play TFF.
Still what they choose is a nice piece of info to know.
This what he has with what I think are Telluride possibles indicated with ***
MAIN COMPETITION CONTENDERS
After the Hunt (Luca Guadagnino)***
A House of Dynamite (Kathryn Bigelow)***
Jay Kelly (Noah Baumbach)***
Bugonia (Yorgos Lanthimos)***
Frankenstein (Guillermo del Toro)***
The Smashing Machine (Benny Safdie)
Father Mother Brother Sister (Jim Jarmusch)
The Ballad of a Small Player (Edward Berger)***
No Other Choice (Park Chan-wook)
La Grazia (Paolo Sorrentino)***
The Wizard of the Kremlin (Olivier Assayas)***
In the Hands of Dante (Julian Schnabel)***
Ann Lee (Mona Fastvold)
Hamnet (Chloe Zhao)***
Orphan (Laszlo Nemes)***
Untitled/Gaza (Kaouther Ben Hania)
One Year of School (Laura Samani)
Mother Bhumi (Chong Keat Aun)
Below the Clouds (Gianfranco Rosi)
Duse (Pietro Marcello)
I Wanted to Kill Her (Leonardo Di Costanzo)
The Stranger (Francois Ozon)***
À pied d’œuvre (Valérie Donzelli)
Chocobar (Lucrecia Martel)
OTHER POSSIBILITIES
The Fence (Claire Denis)
Wake of Umbra (Carlos Reygadas)
Chocobar (Lucrecia Martel)
At the Sea (Kornél Mundruczó)
Caught Stealing (Darren Aronofsky)
Deux Pianos (Arnaud Desplechin)
Anemone (Ronan Day-Lewis)***
Tre Ciotole (Isabel Coixet)
El Ser Querido (Rodrigo Sorogoyen)
The Way of the Wind (Terrence Malick)***
Switzerland (Anton Corbijn)
Deliver Me From Nowhere (Scott Cooper)***
Redoubt (John Skoo)
& Sons (Pablo Trapero)
Occupation (Myroslav Slaboshpytskyi)
Dao (Alain Gomis)
Rosebush Pruning (Karim Ainouz)
Une Illusion (Naomi Kawase)
The Dreamed Adventure (Valeska Grisebach)
Yellow Letters (Ilker Çatak)
Unidentified (Haifaa al-Mansour)***
Silent Friend (Ildiko Enyedi)
Rose (Markus Schleinzer)
Untitled (Abu Bakr Shawky)
Calle Malaga (Maryam Touzani)
Musk (Alex Gibney)***
NO BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
Frequent readers will know that I have flirted in recent posts about the outside possibility that Paul Thomas Anderson's One Battle After Another might end up screening at Telluride. Well...
World of Reel put that notion to rest Sunday afternoon.
Jordan Ruimy writes:
"A source close to the situation tells me that Warner Bros. has made the decision to skip all the major fall festivals for “One Battle After Another,” including Venice, Telluride, and TIFF."
Unless this is great cover for a TFF "sneak" it looks like to PTA at TFF.
ELEANOR HAS A DATE
Sony Pictures Classics has dated the release of Scarlett Johannsson's directorial debut, Eleanor the Great. The film will be released nationwide on Sept. 26th which feels right for a potential TFF play OR a TFF/TIFF combo OR Toronto only. That's according to Deadline. The film stars 95year old actress June Squibb who might find herself in the Oscar race for Best Actress for this film.
The film screened at Cannes as a part of the Un Certain Regard section. It earned a reasonable 6.64/10 composite rating from Cannes-Ratings.org.
The description from IMDb:
After a devastating loss, witty and proudly troublesome Eleanor Morgenstein, 94, tells a tale that takes on a dangerous life of its own.
Here's a clip from the film via YouTube:
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MTFB SPECIAL: NEWS FROM TORONTO, NEW YORK AND VENICE
TORONTO
Based on premiere designations with the big announcement yesterday of Galas and Special Presentations, I believe we conclude that these films will be screening at TFF #51:
Anora
Conclave
Emilia Perez
The End
The Piano Lesson
All We Imagine as Light
Miserecordia
Better Man
Don't Let's Go to the Dog's Tonight
Piece by Piece
The Friend
It also looks like these films, which I have had as a "Bet" or a possibility will not be at T-ride:
Bird*
Oh, Canada
Hard Truths
I'm Still Here
* A note here on Bird. TIFF.net posted on X that it's a Canadian Premiere but its info page at the TIFF website says North American. I tend to believe the website. Thanks to an eagled-eyed reader for pointing out the inconsistency.
From X:
From TIFF.net:
and...
TIFF will still be naming other titles for specific sections this week.
NEW YORK
The New York Fest announced RaMell Ross' Nickel Boys will open their fest on Sept. 27th. The actual announcement did not include any reference to the premiere status for the film which could indicate that the film could make an appearance at Telluride. After all, if it were a World Premiere I think that NYFF would be shouting that from the rooftops.
On the other hand, the post on X from NYFF does use the word "premiering":
I don't know that it absolutely guarantees it for TFF #51, but the door is certainly open.
VENICE
As always with Venice, the inclusion of a film among their announced titles doesn't guarantee a Telluride play but also doesn't preclude one. So Venice titles listed here are films that I think have a shot at playing both fests.
The Room Next Door/Almodovar
Queer/Guadagnino
Maria/Larrain
Babygirl/Reijn
Harvest/Tsangari
Allegorie Citadine/Rohrwacher and JR
Separated/Morris
One on One: John and Yoko/Macdonald and Rice-Edwards
The real hint about what, if any, films play both fests will be when Venice posts their schedule and then we'll see what they have scheduled early enough for a film and some its entourage to get across the Atlantic in time to screen at Telluride.
Figuring out Telluride is never an easy task but this year takes the cake. Writers' strike, Actors' strike...nothing is stable...all is squishy.
Late Friday/Saturday:
1) Guadagnino's Challengers backs out of Opening Venice and sets a new release date in late April 2024. Any chance that it might have been a TFF #50 possibility is all but obliterated. The reason? No Zendaya because of the SAG-Aftra strike.
2) Bradley Cooper's Maestro going to New York? That's what World of Reel suggests based on reporting from Indiewire. If true, that means no TFF #50 bow for the film from Netflix.
4) However in that same Kohn/Indiewire post there seems to be a level of assurance that Ethan Hawkes' Wildcat WILL PLAY in T-ride over Labor Day. Kohn writes:
"Buyers are already circling potential TIFF pickups like Ethan Hawke’s “Wildcat,” which stars his daughter Maya Daisy Hawke as Flannery O’Connor. Hawke plans to promote the movie, also expected at Telluride"
5) Intriguingly...none of the news of the last 72+ hours would preclude a North American premiere of either Scorsese's Killers of the Flower Moon or Fincher's The Killer. Think on that.
WE HAVE A POSTER!
TFF's 50th edition poster from Meow Wolf artist Luke Dorman (who did the super TFF #48 poster) has been released:
The cool thing here is that Dorman includes Easter eggs for all of the previous TFF posters.
TORONTO ANNOUNCES SOME FILMS TODAY?
Media reports indicate that the Toronto International Film Festival is likely to announce some of their confirmed titles today after having slid by on July 19th with only a single title named.
You'll want to be paying attention if this actually transpires to the "premiere status" announced for each film as that can give us clues as to whether or not a film may be playing at TFF #50.
I'll be on the road when and if this announcement happens so I may be a bit late to the game in as far as noting what might be in and out vis-a-vis TFF #50. Rest assured, MTFB will get caught up ASAP.
Well, normally today's post would be full of me crowing about how prescient I have been or whining about how thick I've been because it's usually the first MTFB post after Toronto has announced a bunch of titles for their fest, complete with their revealing premiere status. However, that did not happen (more about this below in the TIFF IS a Whiff segment).
Consequently, MTFB doesn't know much more than it did last week. These SAG-Aftra and WAG strikes have demonstrably caused major havoc among the upcoming fall film festivals. Included in that uproar has been some speculation that some fests might not even happen.
Ugh!
So with that table setting, here's a review of last week's Ten Bets:
1) The Holdovers/Alexander Payne
2) Poor Things/Yorgos Lanthimos
3) Saltburn/Emerald Fennell
4) Strangers/Andrew Haigh
5) Nyad/Chin and Vasarhelyi
6) Monster/Kore-eda
7) Anatomy of a Fall/Justine Triet
8) Fallen Leaves/Aki Kaurismaki
9) The Teachers' Lounge/Ilker Catak
10) The Pot-au-Feu/Trinh Hung
And with announcements from both Toronto and Venice expected next week...here's your updated Ten Bets:
1) The Holdovers/Alexander Payne
2) Poor Things/Yorgos Lanthimos
3) Saltburn/Emerald Fennell
4) Strangers/Andrew Haigh
5) Nyad/Chin and Vasarhelyi
6) Monster/Kore-eda
7) Anatomy of a Fall/Justine Triet
8) Fallen Leaves/Aki Kaurismaki
9) The Teachers' Lounge/Ilker Catak
10) The Pot-au-Feu/Trinh Hung
Other possibilities: The Zone of Interest/Glazer, The End/Oppenheimer, El Conde/Pablo Larrain, Freud's Last Session/Brown, The Royal Hotel/Green, Rustin/Wolfe, The American Buffalo/Burns and Shirley/Ridley.
That's right. MTFB stands pat for this week.
THE HOLDOVERS TRAILER
Since my last post on July 17, Focus Features has dropped a trailer for Alexander Payne's The Holdovers. After a wobble in my thinking a couple of weeks back, The Holdovers has returned to the top of the Ten Bets as the film that I have the most confidence will play TFF #50. Of course, I'd urge you to remember that I also had Todd Haynes' May December in that top spot for exactly one week until we found out that it was going to North American Premiere at New York's fest.
At any rate, here's The Holdovers trailer via YouTube:
TIFF IS A WHIFF
As you may have heard or surmised, the Toronto International Film Festival was to have announced some of the films that would play there yesterday. They announced exactly one. Atom Egoyan's Seven Veils revealed as a World Premiere. So we can say no Seven Veils at TFF #50.
Normally yesterday's announcement would have included a substantial number of films along with their premiere status which would have provided us with a pretty clear idea about films that would or would not make The SHOW.
But the single film reveal, which TIFF did not prepare any one for, really tells us that the fall film festivals are scrambling as are studios, distributors and producers in this dual strike world.
Reportedly, we could see a more complete announcement from TIFF next week and also there are reports that Venice will go forward with their announcement scheduled on July 25.
Buckle your seat belts...
IF I WERE TELLURIDE...
And I'm not Telluride.
The fest has made it very, very clear that I am NOT. But if I were...I'd fill those Guest Directors spots with the biggest names in acting that would say yes and have them each program a film.
The actors are idle...except for walking the picket line. The Guest Director slots...to the best that I'm able to discern...would not violate any provisions of the strike protocols.
Imagine...Tom Cruise...who has been the face of movies for the last year and who has been a Telluride-ite...programs a Kubrick.
Leo DiCaprio...at liberty currently...comes to town and programs a Scorsese.
Meryl Streep...who has been to T-ride before...programs an Eastwood.
Consider this... six of the world's greatest living actors getting to choose one film to screen and then talking about it afterwards. That might be worth the ticket price by itself.
PS...I volunteer to lead the Q and A for a couple of those my own self.
Every now and then I run across pieces of information that either enlighten me about what will play at TFF or , conversely, won't play at TFF. Sometimes I get tidbits that tell me something but doesn't quite get all the way to a definitive conclusion. That last circumstance happened at the end of this past week.
On Wednesday. last week, I got a message from a follower of MTFB that he'd seen an announcement from Focus Features that they were hosting a contest for a chance to get tickets to a Gala Presentation for one of their films on Saturday, Sept. 9th at Roy Thomson Hall. If you really follow all of this Premiere status closely over these past few years, you're aware that Toronto has made clear that ONLY WORLD PREMIERES will play Roy Thomson on TIFF's opening weekend.
Then, couple of days later, I was reading Eric Lavallee's (Ioncinema) June 28 post entitled 2023 Toronto International Film Festival (Strictly) World Premiere Predictions! As many of you know, a World Premiere at Toronto (except in extremely weird or confused instances) means a film will not play at Telluride). Early in the piece Lavallee writes:
"My golden calf prognostication is Alexander Payne‘s The Holdovers. We are predicting that it’ll bypass Telluride and Venice and what is somewhat fitting is that the Focus Features property was actually picked up at TIFF last year in a private market screening for buyers."
Well, those sentences set me back. I have had The Holdovers as #1 on this year's first Ten Bets.
So, does this mean no Holdovers at Telluride?
Maybe. BUT... not necessarily. The other big Focus title that's on everyone's radar has been Ethan Coen's Drive-Away Dolls. That film is set for U.S. release on Sept. 22nd. It's the only other Focus property that I can see that would fill the bill for a Gala Opening at TIFF on Sept. 9th.
Jordan Ruimy writing at World of Reel in a piece about Venice's announcement date wrote this:
"Alexander Payne’s “The Holdovers” would be a great get for Venice, but Focus, which is handling the film, has a tight friendship with Toronto and might just skip the Lido. The same could potentially be said about Ethan Coen’s “Drive-Away Dolls,” which is also Focus."
That sounds to me like Ruimy might be looking at the same information I am.
The bottom line seems to be that, at a minimum, one of the two films will be playing at Roy Thomson/TIFF on Sept. 9th and consequently will not play TFF #50. It could actually portend that neither film is In Telluride on Labor Day weekend.
My best guess is that The Holdovers still plays at TFF and that Drive-Away Dolls is what fills the bill in Toronto. I just have a hard time believing that Alexander Payne, a member of the TFF Board of Directors (at least as of last year), a past TFF Guest Director and who has screened three of his films at the fest since 2011, won't be bringing his latest film to the 50th TFF celebration.
Saying the same thing this week in his "Halfway to Oscars 2024 Qualifying: 40 Films in the Mix" post for The Playlist, Gregory Ellwood wrote:
“The Holdovers“*
Alexander Payne and Paul Giamatti reunite for the sort of melancholy dramedy that put them both on the map. If it doesn’t have its world premiere at Telluride (Payne attends almost every year), we’ll be shocked."
So, I'll be anxiously watching Toronto announcements to see if this puzzle can be solved. And speaking of announcements...
VENICE AND TOTONTO ANNOUNCEMENTS LOOMING
We have known for a bit that TIFF will announce a big chunk of their lineup on July 19th. We found out over the last few days that, per Screen Daily , the Venice lineup announcement will be on July 25th.
Both announcement's can be instructive re: The SHOW. Toronto's announcement's can, by virtue of their Premiere Status designation, can tell us whether a film will or won't play at Telluride. It's not 100% accurate, but it's close.
Venice, on the other, doesn't actually eliminate any TFF possibility but doesn't confirm anything either. It's lineup points to films that could still be in play for a Telluride berth. The other piece of the Venice puzzle is to scour their screening schedule when it gets released. As a general rule, if a film is scheduled for Venice during the first three days (four at the outside) it still has a decent chance of showing up in the San Juans.
So keep those factors in mind as we wait for the dominos to begin to fall over the next two-three weeks.
IONCINEMA LOOKS AT TORONTO
As mentioned above, Eric Lavallee at Ioncinema published a speculative list of films that he suggests could World Premiere at Toronto and thus not make the TFF #50th. We've already dissected the claim that TIFF will World Premiere The Holdovers, but what other films are on Lavallee's list that I have been thinking might be prime contenders for T-ride? Here's a list culled from Lavallee's in the order presented in the post:
World of Reel's Jordan Ruimy has updated his list of Venice possibilities with the fest's announcement date news this week. Here are films from his list that could do the Venice/Telluride two-step categorized as "Good Chance", "Maybe" and "Outside Shot"...at least in my current estimation:
GOOD CHANCE:
El Conde/Larrain
Poor Things/Lanthimos
Strangers/Haigh
MAYBE:
Priscilla/Coppola
The Royal Hotel/Green
Saltburn/Fennell
OUTSIDE SHOT:
Maestro/Cooper
The Captain/Garrone
Fingernails/Nikou
Drive-Away Dolls/Coen...but, you know, see above.
AND FINALLY...THE PLAYLIST'S OSCAR LIST
I mentioned above the comment from Gregory Ellwood's piece this week for The Playlist concerning The Holdovers and it's possibility for Telluride. So, naturally, I ran down his list of 40 possible Best Picture contenders to evaluate it for TFF #50 players. Ellwood has the films categorized as: Likely, Close, In the Mix, Curious and Need Convincing. From each, the TFF possibles are:
LIKELY:
The Zone of Interest/Glazer
CLOSE:
Maestro/Cooper
IN THE MIX:
Anatomy of a Fall
May December
Saltburn
CURIOUS:
The Bikeriders
The Book of Clarence
The Boys in the Boat
Freud's Last Session
Foe
The Holdovers
Nightbitch
Nyad
Perfect Days
The Pot au Fou
Poor Things
Priscilla
Rustin
Strangers
NEED CONVINCING:
Challengers
As an added note, Ellwood has Scorsese's Killer of the Flower Moon as "Likely" and Fincher's The Killer as "Need Convincing".
I'm continuing the assessment of various distribution companies and their past TFF profiles as a method of trying to predict the films that will be selected for inclusion to TFF #50. Today's specimen is Focus Features.
Focus has had a robust presence at The SHOW for the last few years:
2022- TAR, Armageddon Time
2021- Belfast, The Card Counter, Red Rocket
2020- The Way I See It
2019- Waves
2018- Boy Erased 2017- Darkest Hour 2015- Suffragette 2012- Hyde Park on Hudson 2006- Catch a Fire
As you can see, Focus has been more present at Telluride the last couple of years and has had one TFF selection every year since 2017. Focus has also had three of its films from TFF nominated for Best Picture: TAR, Belfast and Darkest Hour over the past six years.
So as we contemplate their 2023 we land on two films. One seems to me to be a no-brainer for inclusion at Telluride and the other has a chance.
The no-brainer is Alexander Payne's The Holdovers starring Payne's old Sideways pal Paul Giamatti. Payne has huge connections to Telluride after having served as Guest Director in 2009 as well as serving on the fest's Board of Governors. In addition, he has screened The Descendants (2011), Nebraska (2013) and Downsizing (2017) at TFF.
As a matter of fact, if you saw last Thursday's post of 2023's first "Ten Bets" you'll have seen that I have The Holdovers as the #1 "bet".
The other Focus film that's in the mix is Ethan Coen's first solo directing effort since he and brother Joel decided to split...at least for the time being. The film is Drive Away Dolls which IMDb Pro says went into post-production in May. I'm much less confident that Drive Away is at TFF. Yes, Coen was part of a three-way Tribute at TFF #40 in 2013 with his brother and T. Bone Burnett and Inside Llewyn Davis was screened. But since then both Hail, Caesar! (2016) and The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (2018) have come and gone without making a stop at TFF. It remains the only Coen Brothers film to have played at Telluride.
Hail, Caesar! played the Berlin, Glasgow and Belgrade Film Fests after its Feb. 5th premiere and was distributed by Universal. Buster Scruggs played Venice, New York, BFI London and AFI among others prior to its release on Nov. 16th and was from Netflix.
Coen also directed the doc Jerry Lee Lewis; Trouble In Mind which screened at Cannes in 2022 and seems to be under A24's umbrella but has yet to be released in the United States.
All of which is to say that history points to the unlikelihood that Drive Away drives into the San Juans on August 31st.
That said, Ioncinema's Eric Lavallee writing about the film on April 17th said Telluride was in the mix for the film:
"It’s called Drive-Away Dolls. It’s dropping on September 22nd. Telluride, Venice Film Festival and TIFF programmers have their tasers pointed."
Other outlets such as Gold Derby, SlashFilm and The Playlist have at least mentioned the possibility so I can't dismiss it completely.
All of the other Focus films for 2023 have already screened at a domestic film fest-Every Body, A Thousand and One, or have been released-Asteroid City or seem unlikely-My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 set for U.S. release on Sept. 8th.
So for now...chances for Telluride:
The Holdovers 80%
Drive Away Dolls 25%
Serendipitously, as I was writing this portion of the post for today Focus dropped a poster and a trailer for Drive Away Dolls:
“Drive Away Dolls” premieres September 22nd, so look for it to be front and center at the Telluride and Toronto film fests."
I don't know what he knows but that sounds promising.
GUEST DIRECTING FOR THE 50TH
10 years ago, we had gotten down to August 5th and no guest director had yet been named for TFF #40. In my post that day I had a segment on that mystery in which, among other things, I suggested:
"Have 6 of them...I'll bet you have at least 6 past Guest Directors in attendance. Have each of them select one film from the list they originally programmed. Or cross-pollinate them...have an Alexander Payne program one film from Errol Morris' original list."
I even had a list of possible choices for the "half dozen" concept:
"I have to believe that Morris, Tavernier, Sellars, Rushdie, Payne and maybe Bogdanovich, Henry and Boorman will be in town."
Then, when we did find out what TFF had done it WAS six guest directors who had been past Guest Directors: Don DeLillo, Buck Henry, Phillip Lopate, Michael Ondaatje, B. Ruby Rich and Salman Rushdie.
So I had gotten the notion right and two of the six directors.
Honestly, I just sort of blindly stumbled onto what eventually happened.
But, with that in mind, could the fest do something similar for the 50th?
Of that list of six from 2013, all but Buck Henry are still living. Bring all five back? Or a brand new set of six. Or a mix of some from the 40th and other past guest directors.
OR---other thoughts...
*A Guest director from each of the decades since the position was established in 1988.
*Some really BIG NAMES...from entertainment or politics. I suggested this also back in 2013. Maybe names like Obama, Jagger, McCartney?
*Some really BIG NAMES from directing: Scorsese, Spielberg?
*Some TFF regulars who have never Guest Directed: Ken Burns and Werner Herzog unbelievably have never Guest Directed.
I'm very excited to find out what the fest's plans are in this regard.
IT WAS PARTY TIME LAST WEEK
Telluride annually has hosted a party during the summer months in Los Angeles. That happened last Tuesday as was evidenced by a couple of attendees posting pics of their invites on social media.
Deadline's Pete Hammond was there and as he has done in the past, wrote a bit about the evening last Friday. In the post, Hammond makes a claim that I have always thought was likely true:
"The annual June kickoff event in Los Angeles was packed, and as one awards pundit told me, “I always love this party because you can totally get clues as to what movies are going to Telluride just by seeing which studios show up here.”
Hammond then goes on to list at least some of the outfits that were there:
"...there were reps out in force from the likes of Searchlight, Focus Features, Roadside Attractions, Sony Pictures Classics, Netflix, Amazon Studios, and many more, so take your guesses."
If you've been reading this space the last few weeks you'll see a number of distributors on Pete's list that I have already profiled with an analysis of what films that might be bringing to TFF #50:
Focus Features today, Searchlight on June 19th, SPC on June 9th, Netflix on June 5th. I have Amazon teed up for Thursday's post but the Roadside Attractions mention is a little puzzling. For the life of me I can't find a title under the Roadside banner that feels like a TFF candidate.
The film they have that seems the most likely is Bill Pohlad's Dreamin' Wild but it is currently set for release a month before the festival. Sooooo...I'm flummoxed.
TORONTO TEASE
Reportedly the Toronto International Film Festival will announce some information about their fest on Wednesday. Likely it will be an announcement of their opening night film and/or some splashy World Premiere.. Last year at this time TIFF announced that Rian Johnson's Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery would World Premiere there.
What will we hear from them on Wednesday? Maybe The Color Purple? Maestro? The Killer? Or, perhaps the North American Premiere of Killers of the Flower Moon? That last, I think, is still much more likely to show up at the New York Film Fest which opens a week before Flower Moon's announced limited release date of Oct. 6th.
Two weeks after the 49th Telluride Film Festival, here are the results from this year's People's ratings of the films that played there.
I asked for readers of MTFB to rate the films they saw over Labor Day weekend at TFF #49 on a 1-5 scale and submit that information to me. I then complied the responses (nearly 50 this year) and averaged them all to arrive at each film's ratings. To make the cut, only films that received at least a third of the total number of respondents were included to insure the sampling size was sufficient. 13 films qualified for listing. You'll see the results below after a brief trip down The People's Telluride memory lane.
The first People's Telluride was posted on Sept. 10, 2012. The top ten films from that year's fest from the populist perspective were:
1) Stories We Tell- 4.80
2) Argo- 4.75
3) The Attack- 4.70
4) The Act of Killing-4.41
5) Wadjda-4.2
6) Amour 4.17
7) Barbara- 4.17
8) The Sapphires-4.11
9) Frances Ha-4.07
10) (Tie)The Hunt and Baraka - 4.00
In subsequent years the top ten were:
2013:
1) Tim's Vermeer (4.67)
2) 12 Years a Slave (4.55)
3) Gravity (4.40)
4) The Lunchbox (4.25)
5) Inside Llewyn Davis (4.15)
6) Nebraska (4.08)
7) All is Lost (4.06)
8) The Wind Rises (4.0)
9) Ida (4.0)
10) The Past (3.81)
2014:
1) The Imitation Game (4.73)
2) Birdman (4.46)
3) Wild Tales (4.23)
4) Foxcatcher (4.20)
5) Merchants of Doubt (4.04)
6) '71 (3.90)
7) Red Army (3.63)
8) Wild (Tie 3.50)
8) Escobar: Paradise Lost (Tie 3.50)
8) Mommy (Tie 3.50)
2015:
1) Room (4.47)
2) Spotlight (4.45)
3) Beasts of No Nation (4.35)
4) Ixcanul (4.31)
5) Son of Saul (4.30)
6) Marguerite (4.23)
7) Black Mass (4.13)
8) Carol (4.02)
9) Rams (3.98)
10) Steve Jobs (3.86)
2016:
1) Moonlight (4.37)
2) La La Land (4.33)
3) Maudie (4.29)
4) The Eagle Huntress (4.21)
5) Manchester by the Sea (4.18)
6) Arrival (4.13)
7) Bright Lights (3.90)
8) Frantz (3.89)
9) Toni Erdmann (3.80)
10) Sully (3.79)
2017:
1) Lady Bird (4.38)
2) The Shape of Water (4.22)
3) Darkest Hour (4.04)
4) Hostiles (3.99)
5) Faces Places (3.71)
6) Battle of the Sexes (3.68)
7) Lean on Pete (3.66)
8) Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (3.57)
9) The Other Side of Hope (3.45)
10) Wonderstruck (3.43)
2018
1) Roma (4.47)
2) First Man (4.34)
3) Shoplifters (4.29)
4) Boy Erased (4.23)
5) Free Solo (4.19)
6) Cold War (4.02)
7) White Boy Rick (3.88)
8) Can You Ever Forgive Me? (3.81)
9) The Favourite (3.76)
10) The Front Runner (3.69)
2019:
1) The Two Popes (4.51)
2) Parasite (4.36)
3) Ford v. Ferrari (4.35)
4) Marriage Story (4.14)
5) Pain and Glory (3.81-Tie)
5) A Hidden Life (3.81-Tie)
7) Judy (3.80)
8) The Aeronauts (3.67)
9) The Report (3.66)
10) Motherless Brooklyn (3.64)
11) Lyrebird (3.62)
12) Waves (3.61)
13) Inside Bill's Brain (3.39)
14) Uncut Gems (3.22)
15) The Climb (3.07)
16) First Cow (3.02)
No People's poll in 2020.
2021:
1) The Power of the Dog (4.63)
2) The Rescue (4.20)
3) Julia (4.18)
4) Belfast (4.12)
5) King Richard (4.06)
6) C'mon C'mon (3.93)
7) The Hand of God (3.83)
8) Cyrano (3,62)
9) A Hero (3.60)
10) Marcel the Shell (3.57)
11) The Duke (3.53)
12) Spencer-tie- (3.50)
12) The Electrical Life of Louis Wain-tie- (3.50)
14) The Lost Daughter (3.44)
15) Red Rocket (3.41)
16) Petite Maman (3.25)
17) The French Dispatch (2.50)
18) Encounter (2.43)
AND NOW...THE PEOPLE'S TELLURIDE FOR 2022:
1) Women Talking 4.22
2) TAR 4.20
3) Sr. 3.98
4) The Wonder 3.86-(TIE)
4) One Fine Morning 3.86 (TIE) 6) Bones and All 3.77
7) Living 3.70
8) Aftersun 3.63
9) Armageddon Time 3.62
10) Broker 3.57
11) Godland 3.50
12) Empire of Light 3.43
13) Lady Chatterley's Lover 3.31
The most watched films were: TAR, Women Talking and Empire of Light, all of which were seen and rated by 85% of all respondents to the poll. Other films that were viewed by over half the respondents were:
Bones and All 72%
Armageddon Time 68%
The Wonder 57%
Living and Broker 55%
The People's poll included three films that were not in The Professional's poll: Sr., Broker and Godland. Interestingly, the film I heard the most positive buzz about all weekend was Ryan White's Good Night Oppy. Neither The People or the Pros had enough views for the film to qualify in either poll.
Also...here are the Best Picture Oscar nominees from Telluride that have landed on the Peoples list for each year since it was started in 2012:
2012: Argo-4.75 (Winner) #2, Amour-4.17 #6
2013: 12 Years a Slave-4.55 (Winner) #2, Gravity-4.40 #3, Nebraska-4.08 #6
2014: Birdman-4.46 (Winner) #2, The Imitation Game-4.73 #1
2015: Spotlight-4.45 (Winner) #2, Room-4.47 #1
2016: Moonlight-4.37 (Winner) #1, La La Land 4.33 #2, Manchester by the Sea-4.18 #5, Arrival-4.13 #6
2017: The Shape of Water-4.22 #2 (Winner), Lady Bird-4.38 #1, Darkest Hour-4.04 #3
2018: Roma-4.47, The Favourite-3.76 #9
2019: Parasite- 4.36 (Winner) #2, Ford v. Ferrari 4.35 #3, Marriage Story 4.14 #4
2021: The Power of the Dog- 4.63, Belfast- 4.12, King Richard 4.06
The all time People's Top Ten:
1) Stories We Tell (4.80) (12)
2) Argo (4.75) (12)-Won Best Picture
3) The Imitation Game (4.73) (14) Nominated Best Picture
4) The Attack (4.70) (12)
5) Tim's Vermeer (4.67) (13)
6) The Power of the Dog (4.63) (21) Nominated Best Picture
7) 12 Years a Slave (4.55) (13) Won Best Picture
8) The Two Popes (4.51) (19)
9) Roma (4.47) (15) TIE Nominated Best Picture
9) Room (4.47) (18) TIE Nominated Best Picture
The Composite Telluride will go up on Monday!
THE FABELMANS WINS TORONTO
Steven Spielberg's semi-autobiographical film The Fabelman's was named the winner of the Toronto International Film Festival's People's Choice Award yesterday... to no one's surprise. Considering critical and social media reactions to the film, the surprise would have been that it had not won. Frankly, I thought from the buzz that was coming out of TIFF that the only film that might have a shot at denying the PC Award to The Fabelmans was Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery.
As it turned out, the runner-up happened to be today's MTFB People's poll topper Women Talking. Glass Onion ended up as the second runner-up.
I think you could fairly say that The Fabelmans is now the post Telluride-Venice-Toronto Best Picture frontrunner. To my mind the only possible threat to it is the upcoming release of Damien Chazelle's Babylon. I'll likely have my first set of Oscar predictions up on the blog a week from today as we close the book on the fest season for the most part and head into the Oscar season.
Belgium revealed last Friday that it will submit Lukas Dhont's Close as its candidate for the International Feature Oscar. The film, which you will note from above did not have enough views to qualify for this year's MTFB People's poll, could be a strong contender based on its reception atCannes where it won the Grand Prix award.
Close is described at IMDb as follows:
"The intense friendship between two thirteen-year old boys Leo and Remi suddenly gets disrupted. Struggling to understand what has happened, Léo approaches Sophie, Rémi's mother. "Close" is a film about friendship and responsibility."
Close is being distributed in the U.S. by A24 and, as yet has no release date.
NEW POSTER FOR THE WONDER
Netflix revealed a new poster for Sebastian DeLillo's The Wonder on Friday. Here that is:
