Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
It is time. If you haven't already sent in your ratings for TFF #51 films that you saw, now's the time. A reminder about the process. Email me a list of the films you saw and rate each on a 1 to 5 scale. 1 means it was very bad, 5 means you thought it was terrific. Decimals are fine.
Report your ratings to: mpgort@gmail.com
The deadline for this year to turn in your ratings will by Sept. 15th.
I'll compile all of your responses and post those a few days after the festival.
MTFB AND THE BETS
MTFB went 23/25 on the "Final Bets" missing on the inclusion of The Young Mothers' Home and Resurrection. Also, I had only one "possible" that made the lineup and that was Megadoc.
"Bets" I was proud about making predictions for:
*Blue Moon and A Private Life and predicting them despite contradictory premiere designations.
*Urchin which I snuck in at the last minute.
As I have alluded to, this year seemed to be the toughest to crack in a long, long time.
Statistically, this year was my least successful since I started doing the expanded "Final Bets" back in 2016.
2024: 25 0f 25
2023: 24 of 25
2022: 24 of 25
2021: 24 of 25
2020: No fest
2019: 24 of 25
2018: 25 of 25
2017: 24 of 25
2016: 20 of 20
Additionally, the first stab at "Bets" back in June was fairly successful going 7 of 10. The films that screened that appeared on my very first "Bets" are in Bold below:
1) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
2) Blue Moon/Linklater
3) Bugonia/Lanthimos
4) The Love That Remains/Palmason
5) Sentimental Value/Trier
6) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardennes
7) The Secret Agent/Filho
8) Hamnet/Zhao
9) Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper
10) The Ballad of a Small Player/Berger
Here's the track record of initial bets going back to 2011:
We really are getting down to it. Eight more days and the 52nd Telluride Film Festival opens. So here's the penultimate set of "Bets" for what may play at TFF #52. First, a recap of last week's "Bets":
1) Hamnet/Zhao
2) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
3) Sentimental Value/Trier
4) Ballad of a Small Player/Berger
5) The Secret Agent/Filho
6) Nouvelle Vague/Linklater
7) Tuner/Roher
8) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
9) The History of Sound/Hermanus
10) Jay Kelly/Baumbach
11) Bugonia/Lanthimos
12) The Mastermind/Reichardt
13) Cover-Up/Poitras
14) Ghost Elephants/Herzog
15) Hamlet/Karia
16) Pillion
17) La Grazia
18) Resurrection
19) Nuestra Tierra
20) Blue Moon
Other possibilities: A Private Life, The Young Mother's Home, The Drama, Die My Love, At the Sea, A Magnificent Life, Mother Mary, Pressure, The American Revolution, Bucking Fastard, Megadoc, Train Dreams.
This week' Ten Bets (Plus):
1) Hamnet/Zhao
2) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
3) Sentimental Value/Trier
4) Ballad of a Small Player/Berger
5) The Secret Agent/Filho
6) Nouvelle Vague/Linklater
7) Bugonia/Lanthimos
8) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
9) The History of Sound/Hermanus
10) Jay Kelly/Baumbach
11) Tuner/Roher
12) The Mastermind/Reichardt
13) Cover-Up/Poitras
14) Ghost Elephants/Herzog
15) Hamlet/Karia
16) Pillion/Lighton
17) La Grazia/Sorrentino
18) Resurrection/Bi Gan
19) Blue Moon/Linklater
20) A Private Life/Zlotowski
Other possibilities: Secret Documentary with Oscar Isaac, Barrio Triste, The Young Mother's Home, The Drama, Die My Love, At the Sea, A Magnificent Life, Mother Mary, Pressure, The American Revolution, Bucking Fastard, Megadoc, Train Dreams.
The Final Bets will be published next Wednesday in a Special Post!!!
MYSTERY DOC TO PLAY TELLURIDE
I've certainly been bemoaning the fact that Guillermo Del Toro's Frankenstein isn't indicated for Telluride. Toronto has it listed as a North American premiere. But it seems that at least one of members of that cast will make the trek from its Venetian World premiere to Telluride and that is none other than Dr. Frankenstein himself, Oscar Isaac.
How do we know this? Variety had a huge, splashy piece on Frankenstein up yesterday with . The piece includes interview responses from Del Toro, Isaac and Jacob Elordi who plays the monster. Included in the story is this nugget:
"After the Venice gala, Isaac will fly to Telluride to screen a secret documentary that involves him. Then he travels back to Venice for the debut of “In the Hand of Dante,” a mob drama directed by Julian Schnabel."
A secret documentary? Yes, it is. I can't find a peep about it and I spent some time digging.
So, as you'll see above in the Ten Bets section, I've added that to the list of "Possibilities" and I'm very interested to find out what the story is here.
In my last post I had a section describing some disconnects between premiere designations between Toronto and New York. Some of that has been explained.
A friendly reader pointed me toward the Camden International Film Festival which runs the weekend after Telluride so that also means before New York (Sept. 26-Oct. 13) and its lineup explains what seems to be the contradiction between the two film fest's designation. Three films in question will be playing Camden: Nuestra Tierra (Landmarks), With Hasan in Gaza and Evidence. Camden lists Nuestra Tierra and With Hasan in Gaza as U.S. premieres and Evidence as a North American premiere. That clears up what looked like a disconnect between the Toronto and New York designations and means none of those films are likely playing at Telluride.
Meanwhile Sirat, another film with a TIFF/NYFF contradiction has been announced by Fantastic Fest (Sept. 18-25) as a U.S. premiere so the same logic applies and it looks like Sirat is definitively off the TFF#52 list.
That leaves Blue Moon, A Private Life and Barrio Triste as still unexplained TIFF/NYFF contradictory designations. Of the three it feels to me like Blue Moon is the most likely to play Telluride then A Private Life and lastly, Barrio Triste.
WHO COULD BE AT TFF #52?
Hamnet: Chloe Zhao, Paul Mescal, Jesse Buckley, Emily Watson, Joe Alwyn
Sentimental Value: Joachim Trier, Stellan Skarsgard, Rene Reinsve, Elle Fanning
The Ballad of a Small Player: Edward Berger, Colin Farrell, Tilda Swinton
Nouvelle Vague: Richard Linklater, Zoe Deutch
Tuner: Daniel Roher, Dustin Hoffman
Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere: Scott Cooper, Jeremy Allen White, Paul Walter Hauser, Jeremy Strong, Stephen Graham (and in a perfect world, the Boss himself)
The History of Sound: Oliver Hermanus, Paul Mescal, Josh O'Connor, Chis Cooper
Jay Kelly: Noah Baumbach, George Clooney, Adam Sandler, Laura Dern, Greta Gerwig
Bugonia: Yorgos Lanthimos, Emma Stone, Jesse Plemons
The Mastermind: Kelly Reichardt, John Magaro, Josh O'Connor, Bill Camp, Hope Davis, Gaby Hoffman
Hamlet: Riz Ahmed, Joe Alwyn, Timothy Spall
Pillion: Henry Lighton, Alexander Skarsgard, Henry Melling
Blue Moon: Richard Linklater, Ethan Hawke, Andrew Scott, Margaret Qualley, Bobby Canavalle
Secret Documentary: Oscar Isaac
Others from among the "Possibles" list:
Jodie Foster
Jennifer Lawrence
Robert Pattinson
Zendaya
Amy Adams
Anne Hathaway
Kate Mara
Rooney Mara
Orlando Bloom
Joel Edgerton
Felicity Jones
AWARDS WATCH PODCAST IS ALL T-RIDE THIS WEEK
Awards Watch gathered about half a dozen folks who will all be attending TFF for their podcast this week so the focus is all about predicting films and potential Tribute recipients. It's interesting. They've got a title or two that I don't currently have and a slew of guesses about Silver Medallions. Take a listen if you're so inclined:
For the 13th year MTFB is soliciting your input for The People's Telluride. All you have to do is watch films during the fest and then, when it's all over, report to me your assessment of each film on a 1-5 scale with 1 being "UGH!" and 5 being "GREAT".
Report your ratings to: mpgort@gmail.com
The deadline for this year to turn in your ratings will by Sept. 15th.
I'll compile all of your responses and post those a few days after the festival.
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com
X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2
Bluesky: @gort2.bsky.social
MTFB's Facebook Page
MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays
If you would like to be added to the MTFB e-mail list send an email to mpgort@gmail.com
New info earlier this week from announcements coming from the New York Film Fest and the Toronto International Film Festival inform this week's Ten Bets. New York's Spotlight section announcements seem to confirm that La Grazia and Pillion are headed to Telluride.
What will NOT be playing Telluride as it will World Premiere at New York id the return of Daniel Day-Lewis to film acting in Anemone.
Confusion was created when New York also listed Blue Moon and A Private Life as "New York" premieres as opposed to a "U.S." premiere designation. Much like Landmarks (Nuestra Tierra) last week, that designation puts those film at odds with their "North American" premiere designations from TIFF. Both designations can't be true. Consequently I'll be putting both A Private Life as well as Blue Moon back on the list.
Toronto announced half a dozen new films and dropped their schedule on Tuesday. The six films didn't reveal any Telluride possibilities but did confirm that No Other Choice and The Wizard of the Kremlin are not T-ride players.
By way of recap, here's last week's Ten Bets (Plus):
1) Hamnet/Zhao
2) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
3) Sentimental Value/Trier
4) The Ballad of a Small Player/Berger
5) The Secret Agent/Filho
6) Nouvelle Vague/Linklater
7) Tuner/Roher
8) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
9) The History of Sound/Hermanus
10) Jay Kelly/Baumbach
11) Bugonia/Lanthimos
12) The Mastermind/Reichardt
13) Cover-Up/Poitras
14) Ghost Elephants/Herzog
15) Hamlet/Karia
Other possibilities: Resurrection, Nuestra Tierra, The Young Mother's Home, The Drama, Pillion, Die My Love, Anemone, At the Sea, A Magnificent Life, Mother Mary, Pressure, The American Revolution, Ghost Elephants, Bucking Fastard, La Grazia, Megadoc, Train Dreams.
And this week's goes like this:
1) Hamnet/Zhao
2) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
3) Sentimental Value/Trier
4) Ballad of a Small Player/Berger
5) The Secret Agent/Filho
6) Nouvelle Vague/Linklater
7) Tuner/Roher
8) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
9) The History of Sound/Hermanus
10) Jay Kelly/Baumbach
11) Bugonia/Lanthimos
12) The Mastermind/Reichardt
13) Cover-Up/Poitras
14) Ghost Elephants/Herzog
15) Hamlet/Karia
16) Pillion
17) La Grazia
18) Resurrection
19) Nuestra Tierra
20) Blue Moon
Other possibilities: A Private Life, The Young Mother's Home, The Drama, Die My Love, At the Sea, A Magnificent Life, Mother Mary, Pressure, The American Revolution, Bucking Fastard, Megadoc, Train Dreams.
NEW YORK SPOTLIGHT CLUES AND CONFUSIONS
Last Tuesday the New York Film Festival revealed their Spotlight section films and those reveals and their premiere designations provide us Telluride watchers with some clues.
First, the bad news... the Daniel Day-Lewis coming-out-of-acting-retirement film Anemone was announced as a NYFF World premiere...meaning no Telluride.
Some good news... from their designations as New York premieres it looks like Pillion and La Grazia are almost certainly Telluride bound. La Grazia is opening Venice so has time to get to Telluride.
Some confusion: Blue Moon and A Private Life were also listed as New York premieres which is a curious designation as those two films were announced by Toronto as Nort American premieres. Both things cannot be true. If the Toronto designation is correct then no Telluride for either film. If the New York designation is trye that would signify a Telluride play as NYFF would almost assuredly have designated them as U.S. premieres if they were not playing Telluride. That's illustrated by the U.S. premiere designation for Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out. For now, I'm back to cautious optimism about both films for Labor Day.
Some confirmations... Nouvelle Vague announced as a NY preem confirms for Telluride.
A couple of other notes...documentaries about Martin Scorsese and Anne Meara and Jerry Stiller are labelled World premieres so no Telluride for either. I thought the Scorsese doc was a real possibility.
Early in the week there was quite a bit of scuttlebutt that Josh Safdie's Marty Supreme might be showing up at a "fall fest" after all. There was a good deal of speculation about what fest that might be. With Toronto and New York purportedly done announcing films the likely culprits would be Telluride, New York or AFI.
Now, I was really hoping that might mean a landing at TFF #52 but replying to a query on X I expressed that it was my belief that the odds were 3-1 in New York's favor. That estimate seems to have been born out. According to World of Reel on Wednesday, if it is to happen it will be at NYFF.
FIRST PHOTO FROM HAMNET
We're 99% sure Chloe Zhao's Hamnet will bow at TFF #52. Tuesday we got our first official image from the film that stars Paul Mescal and Jesse Buckley. Here that is:
The IMDb description for Hamnet:
The story of Agnes - the wife of William Shakespeare - as she struggles to come to terms with the loss of her only son, Hamnet. A human and heart-stopping story as the backdrop to the creation of Shakespeare's most famous play, Hamlet.
Hamnet is set for a limited opening on Nov. 27th.
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com
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Just announced this morning after the blog's post time, the New York Film Festival has added Scott Cooper's Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere to its lineup as a Spotlight Gala. Noteworthy is that the language of the press release refers to it as a premiere but does NOT indicate what level of premiere.
I have also been told that the original release may have suggested that it was a World premiere but that has been scrubbed for the current language.
All of this tends to support the notion that the film will, in fact bow initially at Telluride.
Here's the link to the NYFF announcement in its current form:
We haven't heard much about Lynne Ramsay and Die, My Love since Cannes. But now, over the weekend, Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel sourcing from Screen Daily suggests that Ramsay has been re-editing the film since Cannes. Ruimy also reminds us that the same scenario occurred when Ramsay screened We Need to Talk About Kevin at Cannes in 2011 and then worked on further editing it afterwards. Of course that film went on to screen at Telluride.
Ruimy even suggests that a repeat of that scenario is not completely out of the question writing:
"IndieWire’s “Screen Talk” podcast seems to now be hinting that Ramsay went back to the editing room after Cannes to further shape “Die, My Love,” which might potentially explain its absence at the fall fests — although I still wouldn’t rule out a Telluride appearance."
GOLD DERBY OSCAR RANKINGS FOR WHAT WE THINK IS HEADED TO TFF #52
As many of you readers know, when the fest concludes on Sept. 1st and this space will then become focused on the awards season fortunes of the films that make up the TFF #52 lineup. So I took a look at how the experts at Gold Derby had rated some of the films that we think may play T-ride in a few weeks. Here's where they sit:
#3 Sentimental Value
#4 Jay Kelly
#7 Bugonia
#8 Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
#13 It Was Just an Accident
#15 Hamnet
#21 The Ballad of Small Player
#35 The History of Sound
#39 The Mastermind
#47 The Secret Agent
#48 Nouvelle Vague
If the Gold Derby experts are correct TFF #52 would have four films get Oscar nominated for Best Picture.
Lots of information flying around earlier this week from Toronto and New York allows us to clean up the Ten Bets as well as "possibilities". By way of review, here's last week's Ten Bets:
This week's new Ten Bets:
1) Hamnet/Zhao
2) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
3) Sentimental Value/Trier
4) Ballad of a Small Player/Berger
5) The Secret Agent/Filho
6) Nouvelle Vague/Linklater
7) Tuner/Roher
8) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
9) The History of Sound/Hermanus
10) Jay Kelly/Baumbach
Other possibilities: Bugonia, Blue Moon, The Young Mother's Home, The Love That Remains, The Drama, Pillion, Left-Handed Girl, Die My Love, Anemone, At the Sea, Late Fame, A Magnificent Life, Mother Mary, Pressure, The American Revolution, Ghost Elephants, Bucking Fastard, La Grazia, Orphan, Hand of Dante, Cover-Up, Megadoc, No Other Choice, The Wizard of the Kremlin, Train Dreams.
Now, in light of the week's info...the new Ten Bets (Plus):
This week's new Ten Bets (Plus):
1) Hamnet/Zhao
2) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
3) Sentimental Value/Trier
4) Ballad of a Small Player/Berger
5) The Secret Agent/Filho
6) Nouvelle Vague/Linklater
7) Tuner/Roher
8) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
9) The History of Sound/Hermanus
10) Jay Kelly/Baumbach
11) Bugonia/Lanthimos
12) The Mastermind/Reichardt
13) Cover-Up/Poitras
14) Ghost Elephants/Herzog
15) Hamlet/Karia
Other possibilities: Resurrection, Nuestra Tierra, The Young Mother's Home, The Drama, Pillion, Die My Love, Anemone, At the Sea, A Magnificent Life, Mother Mary, Pressure, The American Revolution, Ghost Elephants, Bucking Fastard, La Grazia, Megadoc, Train Dreams.
I was shocked that Blue Moon was announced by Toronto as a North American Premiere. I would have bet actual money that it was going to be at Telluride. I was almost as certain that The Love That Remains would also make it to TFF#52 but it was also announced as a TIFF North American premiere.
Here's the list of films that I had been T-ride watching which got nuked for TFF#52 by announcements earlier this week:
Blue Moon
The Love That Remains
Late Fame
Magellan
Mirrors #3
No Other Choice
Two Prosecutors
The President's Cake
Unidentified
Left-Handed Girl
Orphan
Orwell 2+2=5
Films that moved up the Ten Bets based on this week's information:
The Mastermind
Cover-Up
Hamlet
Resurrection
Landmarks (Nuestra Tierra) is up in the air. New York says it's a NY Premiere. Toronto says it has the North American premiere. If New York is correct means probably Telluride. If Toronto is correct...no Telluride.
VENICE SCHEDULE IS UP
Early this morning the official public schedule for the Venice Film Festival was posted. The schedule appears to confirm that theses films are screening early enough to make it to Colorado:
La Grazia (Opening night film)
From 8/28
Ghost Elephants
Orphan
Bugonia
Jay Kelly
Megadoc
From 8/29
Cover-Up
After the Hunt
From earlier announcements from other fests we believe that Orphan and After the Hunt are off the table for Telluride.
We're also pretty sure that this helps signal that Bugonia, Jay Kelly and Cover-Up are headed to Telluride.
Ghost Elephants...that's Werner Herzog...making me think that it's in the bag for Telluride. Megadoc? I'm not so sure. Also that could be complicated Francis Ford Coppola's health situation.
Four weeks from today we'll see the actual lineup for TFF #52. Until then it's all speculation. So, let's speculate. But first, a recap of last week's Ten Bets:
1) Hamnet/Zhao
2) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
3) Sentimental Value/Trier
4) Ballad of a Small Player/Berger
5) The Secret Agent/Filho
6) Nouvelle Vague/Linklater
7) Tuner/Roher
8) Bugonia/Lanthimos
9) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
10) The History of Sound/Hermanus
Other possibilities: Blue Moon, The Young Mother's Home, The Love That Remains, Jay Kelly, Left-Handed Girl, Die My Love, Anemone, Pressure, The American Revolution, Ghost Elephants, Bucking Fastard, La Grazia, A House of Dynamite, Orphan, Hand of Dante, Cover-Up.
With some new information over the last week, the new Ten Bets are so:
This week's new Ten Bets:
1) Hamnet/Zhao
2) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
3) Sentimental Value/Trier
4) Ballad of a Small Player/Berger
5) The Secret Agent/Filho
6) Nouvelle Vague/Linklater
7) Tuner/Roher
8) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
9) The History of Sound/Hermanus
10) Jay Kelly/Baumbach
Other possibilities: Bugonia, Blue Moon, The Young Mother's Home, The Love That Remains, The Drama, Pillion, Left-Handed Girl, Die My Love, Anemone, At the Sea, Late Fame, A Magnificent Life, Mother Mary, Pressure, The American Revolution, Ghost Elephants, Bucking Fastard, La Grazia, Orphan, Hand of Dante, Cover-Up, Megadoc, No Other Choice, The Wizard of the Kremlin, Train Dreams.
Jay Kelly moves into the Ten Bets on the strength of some reporting earlier in the week. It bumps Bugonia. New additions to the "Possibles" include: Pillion, The Drama, At the sea, Late Fame, A Magnificent Life, Mother Mary, Megadoc, No Other Choice, The wizard of the Kremlin and Train Dreams ( I know it played Sundance but maybe it'll be an exception like The Outrun last year).
IS THIS THING OFF?
It sure seems that way as the New York Film Festival announced yesterday that Bradley Cooper's Is This On? was announced as that fest's Closing Night film and will be a World Premiere which means it will not play Telluride or Toronto either for that matter.
It has been a film that I have had high hopes for vis-a-vis TFF #52 but, alas, Nope!
BLUE MOON HAS A TRAILER
Listed currently as a "Possibility" for TFF #52, Richard Linklater's Blue Moon is set for release on Oct. 24th. I've had Blue Moon in earlier iterations of the Ten Bets and still feel pretty good about its chances of making the lineup.
Anyway, Sony Pictures Classics released a trailer for the film on Tuesday. here it is from YouTube:
I liked it.
THE SECRET AGENT AND LEFT-HANDED GIRL GET DATES
Kleber Mendonça Filho's The Secret Agent has been dated for U.S. release. Neon has set a New York roll out for Nov. 26th followed by release in L.A. on Dec. 5th. The Secret Agent was a big winner at Cannes gaining awards for Best Director and Best Actor among the films in competition for the Palme d'Or.
Its description at IMDb is as follows:
In 1977, a technology expert flees from a mysterious past and returns to his hometown of Recife in search of peace. He soon realizes that the city is far from being the refuge he seeks.
Meanwhile...
Netflix announced yesterday that Shih-Ching Tsou's Left-Handed Girl has been dated for a Nov. 14th theatrical release allowing it to meet Academy Awards requirements for Oscar consideration should it be submitted. The film played as a part of Cannes Critics Week and had a healthy Cannes-ratings.org average of 7.74 (8th best overall of all films that played in various sections of Cannes). The film also picked up the Semaine Distribution Prize.
The film was produced, co-written and edited by Oscar winner Sean Baker (who won Oscars for each of those jobs for Anora last year).
Its IMDb description:
A single mother and her two daughters relocate to Taipei to open a night market stall, each navigating the challenges of adapting to their new environment while striving to maintain family unity.
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com
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Well, here we are. We probably know some things with a reasonable degree of certainty at this poinmt after reveals from Toronto, Venice and New York.
After Toronto's Monday announcement we think this is true:
These seven films appear locked into Telluride:
Hamnet
Ballad of a Small Player
It Was Just an Accident
Nouvelle Vague
Sentimental Value
The Secret Agent
Tuner
These are film's from Venice that feel like they might play there and then come over for TFF #52:
La Grazia
Jay Kelly
The Wizard of the Kremlin
House of Dynamite
Bugoina
Orphan
Hand of Dante
Ghost Elephants
Cover-Up
I had After the Hunt on this list right up until yesterday when New York announced it as its Opening Night film as a North American Premiere...so no Telluride.
Other films that seem gone from Telluride consideration:
Sirat
Frankenstein
Eleanor the Great
Other films that could still play Telluride:
Bugonia
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Blue Moon
The Young Mothers' Home
The History of Sound
The Love That Remains
Left-Handed Girl
Pressure
Die, My Love
The Mastermind
The American Revolution
Bucking Fastard
Last week's Ten Bets:
1) Hamnet/Zhao
2) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
3) Sentimental Value/Trier
4) Bugonia/Lanthimos
5) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper
6) Blue Moon/Linklater
7) Sirat/Laxe
8) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardenne Brothers
9) The History of Sound/Hermanus
10) After the Hunt/Guadagnino
Other possibilities: The Ballad of a Small Player, The Love That Remains, The Secret Agent, Jay Kelly, Left-Handed Girl, Frankenstein, Eleanor the Great, Pressure, Die My Love, The Mastermind, The American Revolution.
This week's new Ten Bets:
1) Hamnet/Zhao
2) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
3) Sentimental Value/Trier
4) Ballad of a Small Player/Berger
5) The Secret Agent/Filho
6) Nouvelle Vague/Linklater
7) Tuner/Roher
8) Bugonia/Lanthimos
9) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
10) The History of Sound/Hermanus
Other possibilities: Blue Moon, The Young Mother's Home, The Love That Remains, Jay Kelly, Left-Handed Girl, Die My Love, Anemone, Pressure, The American Revolution, Ghost Elephants, Bucking Fastard, La Grazia, A House of Dynamite, Orphan, Hand of Dante, Cover-Up.
Information that will further illuminate what could be at TFF #52:
*Waiting to hear from Toronto as they likely have other titles to add over the next few weeks.
*Waiting to see Venice's schedule.
*Waiting for the rest of New York's lineup.
All in all, I'm feeling pretty good about where this week's "Bets" are.
THIS YEAR'S BARBERA "MYSTERY"
Over the last couple of years Venice Film Fest chief Alberto Barbera has, unwittingly or not, let slip bits and pieces of information that have given away a couple of Telluride titles. Tuesday as he was introducing the Venice lineup we referenced Josh Safdies' Marty Supreme saying that (it) "will screen in the autumn".
Now, we know that Marty Supreme is set for a Dec. 25th release which isn't "autumn". Does that mean Barbera has, again revealed a Telluride play? My guess is no. I think New York seems more likely. I;m not saying that the reference precludes Telluride but NYFF makes more sense as the film is set primarily in NYC and the "autumn" reference matches up with New York's Sept. 26-Oct. 13 time frame better than TFF just two days after the Venetian kickoff.
From distributor Mubi yesterday, a poster for Oliver Hermanus' The History of Sound, currently sitting at #10 on this week's Ten Bets. Word is that a trailer is coming today. I'll try to add that to this post before the end of the day should it be forthcoming. Here's the poster:
MAYBE SOME TV?
@Movielo10274449 posted on X yesterday the notion that Matthew Heineman's The Savant could play Telluride and it makes some sense.
Last year the fest programmed Apple TV+'s and Alfonso Cuaron's Disclaimer starring Cate Blanchett (currently Emmy nommed for the role) and Kevin Kline. The fest ran all seven of the series episodes.
Could this happen again this year with The Savant which is also from Apple+?
Maybe Jessica Chastain who stars in the series will be in town? Please...
You bet your buns! Heineman, as @Movielo10274449 points out has screened his last two projects at T-ride. 2022's Retrograde and 2023's fantastic American Symphony.
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We expect to see a bunch of titles announced by the Toronto International Film Festival this morning and them clues as to what films will have been selected for Telluride. Stay tuned to MTFB social Media for those revelations.
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Of course I'll have a full re-cap on Thursday when I post next. That will also include the news from Venice (coming tomorrow) and a new Ten Bets list.
DISTRIBUTOR MONDAY #6: FOCUS FEATURES
While I have been running through the major distribution players based on recent appearances at the Telluride Film Festival I'm sure that many of you have noticed that in some instances the pickings seem lean. That's not the case with Focus Features. I count six films that Focus Features has that could possibly be playing Telluride.
Over the last nine fests, Focus has landed a film at T-ride in seven of those years. They missed in 2016 and 2019. They would have had at least one film in the Covid cancelled 2020 fest. Overall 10 Focus films have screened at Telluride since 2015 (11 if you count the 2020 TFF). Additionally, the Focus presence has increased recently with 7 of these titles playing with the last four years.
Here's their track record at Telluride since 2015:
2015: Suffragette
2017: Darkest Hour
2018: Boy Erased
2020: TFF #47 would have screened The Way I See It
2021: Belfast, The Card Counter
2022: Armageddon Time
2023: The Holdovers, The Bikeriders
2024: Conclave, Piece by Piece
So it's been a pretty solid run and I expect that Focus will have a robust presence at TFF #52. The six films that might make the lineup: Hamnet-which we think is locked as they have been announced as Canadian Premiere for Toronto-, Bugonia, The History of Sound, Anemone, Pressure and Song Sung Blue. Here's some info on each. Participants who have been to TFF previously are indicated with *. The films presented in alphabetical order:
Anemone. Dir. Ronan Day-Lewis. Stars: Daniel Day-Lewis*, Sean Bean, Samantha Morton. Release date: Oct. 10th. IMDb description:
Family bonds between fathers, sons, and brothers are explored as complex relationships unfold through personal journeys and generational conflicts.
Three rime Oscar winner Daniel Day-Lewis comes out of retirement as both acts and co-wrote the script. Of course, Day-Lewis was one of the tributees at TFF in 2007. Brad Pitt is one of two listed producers on the film. If you're not excited to see what this film is...well...
Bugonia. Dir. Yorgos Lanthimos*. Stars: Emma Stone*, Jesse Plemons*, Alicia Silverstone. Release date: Oct. 31st. IMDB description:
Two conspiracy-obsessed young men kidnap the high-powered CEO of a major company, convinced that she is an alien intent on destroying planet Earth.
After having screened The Favourite and Poor Things at Telluride both starring Emma Stone you have to think the chances are good that Bugonia will follow the same path from a Venice premiere to a Telluride play. A couple of notes, though. Lanthimos' Kinds of Kindness did not go that direction in 2024 having played Sundance and then Cannes. Also, all three of those films were distributed by Searchlight so what path Focus might desire.
Hamnet. Dir. Chloe Zhao*. Stars: Jesse Buckley*, Paul Mescal, Emily Watson*, Joe Alwyn. Release date: Dec. 12th. IMDb description:
The story of Agnes - the wife of William Shakespeare - as she struggles to come to terms with the loss of her only son, Hamnet. A human and heart-stopping story as the backdrop to the creation of Shakespeare's most famous play, Hamlet.
As mentioned above, this film seems to be lock for Telluride based on the Toronto Fest announcing it as a Canadian Premiere this past week.
The History of Sound. Dir. Oliver Hermanus*. Stars: Paul Mescal, Chris Cooper, Josh O'Connell. Release date: Sept. 12th.. IMDb description:
Two young men during World War I set out to record the lives, voices and music of their American countrymen.
Mescal and O'Connor are two of the hottest tickets around right now. I had been pretty high on its chances of a Telluride play what with the distributor and Oliver Hermanus having previously hacing Living at TFF #49, but the announced Sept. 12th release date is awfully soon after T-ride. Also, the lukewarm critical reception at Cannes also made me less bullish. Of late, I'm thinking it's still possible. A quick note: Mubi is also listed by IMDb as a domestic distributor of the film.
Pressure. Dir. Anthony Maras. Stars: Andrew Scott, Kerry Condon, Brendan Frasier, Damian Lewis, Chris Messina. Release date: TBD. IMDb description:
A ticking clock thriller based on the extraordinary true story of the 72 hours leading up to D-Day.
The more detailed plot summary reads:
In the seventy two hours leading up to D-Day, all the pieces are in place except for one key element--the British weather. Britain's chief meteorological officer James Stagg (Scott) is called upon to deliver the most consequential forecast in history, locking him into a tense standoff with the entire Allied leadership. The wrong conditions could devastate the largest ever seaborne invasion, while any delay risks German intelligence catching on. With only his trusted aide Captain Kay Summersby to confide in, and haunted by a catastrophic D-Day rehearsal, the final decision rests with Supreme Allied Commander Dwight D. Eisenhower. With only hours to go, the fate of the war and the lives of millions hang in the balance.
To be honest, this is more a "wish for" than an expectation. Its lack of an announced release date makes it questionable but I am very intrigued by the premise and it's Andrew Scott.
Song Sung Blue. Dir. Craig Brewer. Stars: Hugh Jackman*, Kate Hudson, Fisher Stephens*. Release date: Dec. 25th. IMDb description:
Lightning and Thunder, a Milwaukee husband and wife Neil Diamond tribute act, experience soaring success and devastating heartbreak in their musical journey together.
Look, this is doubtful as a TFF play but it sounds interesting. the Dec. 25th release date signals that Focus has some confidence that it will play well with audiences. So, you now...maybe.
Overall, could this be the first year that Focus lands more than two films at TFF? That's possible. Hamnet's in. Bugonia seems likely and maybe History of Sound. I'd love, love, love for Anemone to show up at T-ride as well as Pressure but they're chances are much more tenuous.
Chances:
Hamnet 95%
Bugonia 60%
The History of Sound 40%
Anemone 25%
Pressure 20%
Song Sung Blue 20%
VENICE SET TO ANNOUNCE-MANY POSSIBILITIES
The Venice Film Fest will announce the bulk of its lineup tomorrow. As close observers know, over the years there has usually been a substantial overlap between films that play Venice and then Telluride. So the information we get on what Venice will screen this year will, by itself neither rule in or rule out a T-ride play. Of more import to our Telluride calculus is Venice's schedule which will be announced in about three weeks. Films that screen in the first 2-4 days have a shot at also getting set up to play TFF.
Still what they choose is a nice piece of info to know.
This what he has with what I think are Telluride possibles indicated with ***
MAIN COMPETITION CONTENDERS
After the Hunt (Luca Guadagnino)***
A House of Dynamite (Kathryn Bigelow)***
Jay Kelly (Noah Baumbach)***
Bugonia (Yorgos Lanthimos)***
Frankenstein (Guillermo del Toro)***
The Smashing Machine (Benny Safdie)
Father Mother Brother Sister (Jim Jarmusch)
The Ballad of a Small Player (Edward Berger)***
No Other Choice (Park Chan-wook)
La Grazia (Paolo Sorrentino)***
The Wizard of the Kremlin (Olivier Assayas)***
In the Hands of Dante (Julian Schnabel)***
Ann Lee (Mona Fastvold)
Hamnet (Chloe Zhao)***
Orphan (Laszlo Nemes)***
Untitled/Gaza (Kaouther Ben Hania)
One Year of School (Laura Samani)
Mother Bhumi (Chong Keat Aun)
Below the Clouds (Gianfranco Rosi)
Duse (Pietro Marcello)
I Wanted to Kill Her (Leonardo Di Costanzo)
The Stranger (Francois Ozon)***
À pied d’œuvre (Valérie Donzelli)
Chocobar (Lucrecia Martel)
OTHER POSSIBILITIES
The Fence (Claire Denis)
Wake of Umbra (Carlos Reygadas)
Chocobar (Lucrecia Martel)
At the Sea (Kornél Mundruczó)
Caught Stealing (Darren Aronofsky)
Deux Pianos (Arnaud Desplechin)
Anemone (Ronan Day-Lewis)***
Tre Ciotole (Isabel Coixet)
El Ser Querido (Rodrigo Sorogoyen)
The Way of the Wind (Terrence Malick)***
Switzerland (Anton Corbijn)
Deliver Me From Nowhere (Scott Cooper)***
Redoubt (John Skoo)
& Sons (Pablo Trapero)
Occupation (Myroslav Slaboshpytskyi)
Dao (Alain Gomis)
Rosebush Pruning (Karim Ainouz)
Une Illusion (Naomi Kawase)
The Dreamed Adventure (Valeska Grisebach)
Yellow Letters (Ilker Çatak)
Unidentified (Haifaa al-Mansour)***
Silent Friend (Ildiko Enyedi)
Rose (Markus Schleinzer)
Untitled (Abu Bakr Shawky)
Calle Malaga (Maryam Touzani)
Musk (Alex Gibney)***
NO BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
Frequent readers will know that I have flirted in recent posts about the outside possibility that Paul Thomas Anderson's One Battle After Another might end up screening at Telluride. Well...
World of Reel put that notion to rest Sunday afternoon.
Jordan Ruimy writes:
"A source close to the situation tells me that Warner Bros. has made the decision to skip all the major fall festivals for “One Battle After Another,” including Venice, Telluride, and TIFF."
Unless this is great cover for a TFF "sneak" it looks like to PTA at TFF.
ELEANOR HAS A DATE
Sony Pictures Classics has dated the release of Scarlett Johannsson's directorial debut, Eleanor the Great. The film will be released nationwide on Sept. 26th which feels right for a potential TFF play OR a TFF/TIFF combo OR Toronto only. That's according to Deadline. The film stars 95year old actress June Squibb who might find herself in the Oscar race for Best Actress for this film.
The film screened at Cannes as a part of the Un Certain Regard section. It earned a reasonable 6.64/10 composite rating from Cannes-Ratings.org.
The description from IMDb:
After a devastating loss, witty and proudly troublesome Eleanor Morgenstein, 94, tells a tale that takes on a dangerous life of its own.
Here's a clip from the film via YouTube:
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Other possibilities: The History of Sound, The Ballad of a Small Player, The Love That Remains, The Secret Agent, Jay Kelly, Left-Handed Girl, Frankenstein, Eleanor the Great, Pressure, Marty Supreme, Die My Love, The Mastermind, The American Revolution.
And now for the updated Ten Bets:
1) Hamnet/Zhao
2) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
3) Sentimental Value/Trier
4) Bugonia/Lanthimos
5) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper
6) Blue Moon/Linklater
7) Sirat/Laxe
8) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardenne Brothers
9) The History of Sound/Hermanus
10) After the Hunt/Guadagnino
Other possibilities: The Ballad of a Small Player, The Love That Remains, The Secret Agent, Jay Kelly, Left-Handed Girl, Frankenstein, Eleanor the Great, Pressure, Die My Love, The Mastermind, The American Revolution.
Changes in this week's Ten Bets informed by announcements yesterday from Toronto (see below). Marty Supreme falls out of "possibilities" amid reports that it will skipping all fall fests.
I'm expecting more announcements coming from other fests next week which should really begin to clear the picture for TFF #52.
TORONTO ADDS 11 MORE TITLES...WE DEDUCE!
Yesterday the Toronto International Film Festival announced 11 more titles for their 2025 edition. Their premiere designations tell us about films that now seem to be (mostly) ruled out and one that seems to be confirmed for Telluride. Per Variety here are those films and their designations.
Galas:
The Choral | Nicholas Hytner | UK
World Premiere | Gala Presentation
Homebound | Neeraj Ghaywan | India
North American Premiere | Gala Presentation
Hamnet | Chloé Zhao | UK
Canadian Premiere | Gala Presentation
A Private Life | Rebecca Zlotowski | France
North American Premiere | Gala Presentation
Roofman | Derek Cianfrance | USA
World Premiere | Gala Presentation
She Has No Name | Peter Ho-Sun Chan | China
North American Premiere | Gala Presentation
Special Presentations:
Franz | Agnieszka Holland | Czech Republic/Germany/Poland
World Premiere | Special Presentation
The Lost Bus | Paul Greengrass | USA
World Premiere | Special Presentation
Rental Family | HIKARI | USA/Japan
World Premiere | Special Presentation
Steal Away | Clement Virgo | Canada/Belgium
World Premiere | Special Presentation
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery | Rian Johnson | USA
World Premiere | Special Presentation
Takeaways: Looks like Chloe Zhao's Hamnet is headed to Telluride. Looks like Hikari's Rental Family is not. I've had Hamnet in the Ten Bets from the jump this year. I just put in Rental Family last week but its World Premiere designation means that it won't be at Telluride. The question that raises is does that mean that Bradley Cooper's Is This Thing On? a real TFF #52 possibility from Searchlight? Because it feels like that's Searchlight's best shot now.
Couple of other things: A Private Life, Roofman and Franz were films I had sort of considered as possible TFF candidates and aren't now.
The mystery about Wake Up Dead Man's International Premiere designation for the BFI/London Fest remains...weird. I've said it before...the International Premiere designation is "squishy".
None of the other films announced by Toronto were on my radar as Telluride candidates.
Luca Guadagnino's After the Hunt moved up into this week's Ten Bets. Mostly because its Amazon-MGM's big shot this year and Rental Family dropped out. Now I'm sort of thinking that it does Venice early and then Telluride. Maybe a Julia Roberts tribute?
World of Reel wrote about it yesterday saying:
“After the Hunt” is set to hit screens on October 10 via Amazon/MGM. As mentioned, it’ll probably hit Venice in September, and probably have a fall rollout in other fests, maybe Toronto and Telluride."
Also perhaps signaling that the film is soon to be announced for Venice, Amazon-MGM dropped a trailer yesterday. Here that is from YouTube:
I think it looks intriguing.
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