Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
It is time. If you haven't already sent in your ratings for TFF #51 films that you saw, now's the time. A reminder about the process. Email me a list of the films you saw and rate each on a 1 to 5 scale. 1 means it was very bad, 5 means you thought it was terrific. Decimals are fine.
Report your ratings to: mpgort@gmail.com
The deadline for this year to turn in your ratings will by Sept. 15th.
I'll compile all of your responses and post those a few days after the festival.
MTFB AND THE BETS
MTFB went 23/25 on the "Final Bets" missing on the inclusion of The Young Mothers' Home and Resurrection. Also, I had only one "possible" that made the lineup and that was Megadoc.
"Bets" I was proud about making predictions for:
*Blue Moon and A Private Life and predicting them despite contradictory premiere designations.
*Urchin which I snuck in at the last minute.
As I have alluded to, this year seemed to be the toughest to crack in a long, long time.
Statistically, this year was my least successful since I started doing the expanded "Final Bets" back in 2016.
2024: 25 0f 25
2023: 24 of 25
2022: 24 of 25
2021: 24 of 25
2020: No fest
2019: 24 of 25
2018: 25 of 25
2017: 24 of 25
2016: 20 of 20
Additionally, the first stab at "Bets" back in June was fairly successful going 7 of 10. The films that screened that appeared on my very first "Bets" are in Bold below:
1) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
2) Blue Moon/Linklater
3) Bugonia/Lanthimos
4) The Love That Remains/Palmason
5) Sentimental Value/Trier
6) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardennes
7) The Secret Agent/Filho
8) Hamnet/Zhao
9) Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper
10) The Ballad of a Small Player/Berger
Here's the track record of initial bets going back to 2011:
That puts the average of correct picks on this first whirl at 5.8.
That being said, I feel less confidence about this year's first Ten Bets than maybe any other year. Sooo... with great trepidation...here are 2024's first Ten Bets for TFF:
1) Anora/Sean Baker
2) The Seed of the Scared Fig/Mohammad Rasoulof
3) Emilia Perez/Jacques Audiard
4) The Room Next Door/Pedro Almodovar
5) Bird/Andrea Arnold
6) Maria/Pablo Larrain
7) Oh, Canada/Paul Schrader
8) The End/Joshua Oppenheimer
9) Queer/Luca Guadagnino
10) Conclave/Edward Berger
Other possibilities:
We Live in Time/Crowley
I'm Still Here/Salles
Parthenope/Sorrentino
In the Hand of Dante/Schnabel
Hard Truths/Leigh
The Piano Lesson/Washington
Untitled Noah Baumbach
Nickel Boys/Ross
Blitz/McQueen
Megalopolis/Coppola
Now we'll see how this all plays out.
COPPOLA AND MEGALOPOLIS GET A DISTRIBUTOR
Lionsgate has acquired Francis Ford Coppola's Megalopolis for U.S. distribution. The film has been set for a Sept. 27th release date putting it in position to potentially play TFF and/or Toronto. Lionsgate has had an occasional presence at Telluride over the years with their last appearance in 2022 with Living.
So it appears that the possibility of a Telluride play is still open.
Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel reports that Steve McQueen's Blitz has been screened in front of real humans in New York and London. So, at least some of the mystery about its existence has been removed.
Now, none of this means that Blitz will play any festival but it also doesn't preclude that possibility that it could play T-ride.
I still think that Blitz World Premiering at the BFI/London Fest is the most likely scenario for the film.
The Toronto International Film Festival announced their first set of selections for their 2024 edition this week and included on that list was Marielle Heller's Nightbitch. MTFB readers saw that in my look at Searchlight films that it seemed like their most likely TFF possibility. As Toronto has announced that the film will be a World Premiere that implies that TFF #50 is off the table.
Today's the day...the countdown to the lineup announcement for the 50th Telluride Film Festival on this blog begins in earnest today with 2023's first edition of MTFB's "Ten Bets".
Regular readers will know that this is my first "real" stab at predicting what will be playing at Telluride over the Labor Day weekend. I'll subsequently adjust and expand the list as the summer goes on. Serious indicators occur with announcements about what will be screening at the Toronto and Venice fests and, to a lesser degree Venice's scheduling and the New York Film Fest lineup.
The final Ten Bets for 2023 will be the Monday post on August 28th.
Again, as dedicated readers of this space are aware, MTFB on average lands between 5-6 films on this initial list that end up in the lineup when it is revealed. To wit, last year this was the list of films that comprised the first Ten Bets for TFF #49. Films that actually screened at TFF are in Bold.
1) Bardo/Inarritu
2) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love
3) The Son/Zeller
4) Close/Dhont
5) Women Talking/Polley
6) Aftersun/Wells
7) Showing Up/Reichardt
8) White Noise/Baumbach
9) Broker/Kore-eda
10) She Said/M. Schrader
6/10
Here was the 2021 first Ten Bets:
1) The Power of the Dog/Campion
2) Muhammad Ali/Burns, Burns and McMahon
3) The Card Counter/Schrader
4) Nightmare Alley/Del Toro
5) The Velvet Underground/Haynes
6) Bergman Island/Hansen-Love
7) Cow/Arnold
8) A Hero/Farhadi
9) Blonde/Dominik
10) The Story of Looking/Cousins
8/10
Going back to the advent of my Ten Bets approach, here was the track record from 2011-2019:
So, with all of that as prelude, here is MTFB's first Ten Bets for films to play at The SHOW in 2023:
1) The Holdovers/Payne
2) May December/Haynes
3) Nyad/Chin and Vasarhelyi
4) Monster/Kore-eda
5) Strangers/Haigh
6) El Conde/Larrain
7) Poor Things/Lanthimos
8) Anatomy of a Fall/Triet
9) The American Buffalo/Burns
10) The End/Oppenheimer
Other possibilities: Freud's Last Session/Brown, The Teachers' Lounge/Catak, The Zone of Ineterst/Glazer, Saltburn/Fennell, The Royal Hotel/Green, Rustin/Wolfe and Shirley/Ridley.
There you go. Now let's see how this all unfolds over the next ten weeks.
NEGLIA'S LIST
Matt Neglia, who runs Next Best Picture, posted a terrific piece this week about what film fests had hosted the World Premiere's of Best Picture Oscar nominees. Neglia focused on the nominees since AMPAS adopted the expanded Best Picture field in 2009.
Here's his list for TFF (with best Picture winners in Bold.):
Telluride Film Festival
2022: Women Talking
2021: Belfast & King Richard
2020: None
2019: Ford v Ferrari
2018: None
2017: Darkest Hour, Lady Bird
2016: Moonlight
2015: Room
2014: The Imitation Game
2013: 12 Years A Slave
2012: Argo
2011: The Descendants
2010: 127 Hours, The King’s Speech
2009: Up In The Air
Neglia also includes analysis for Sundance, Cannes, Berlin, SXSW, Venice, Toronto, New York and AFI.
His compilation shows the following statistics for the number of Best Picture World Premieres at these fests:
Venice Film Festival: 21
Sundance Film Festival: 15
Telluride Film Festival: 15
Cannes Film Festival: 14
Toronto Film Festival: 12
New York Film Festival: 8
AFI Fest: 3
Berlin Film Festival: 1
SXSW: 1
So, since 2009 TFF has had the second most World Premieres of Best Picture nominees trailing only Venice and tied with Sundance. However, what Matt doesn't look is the North American Premieres that happen at Telluride (and Toronto and New York for that matter). If you factor those in, then Telluride's place in the fest firmament re: Oscar BP nominations is more pronounced.
Here's the rundown for each year where TFF screened the North American premiere (usually) of films that were Oscar nominated for Best Picture after having their World Premiere at an earlier fest:
2022: TAR (Venice)
2021: The Power of the Dog (Venice)
2020: Nomadland (Venice), The Father (Sundance)
2019: Parasite (Cannes), Marriage Story (Venice)
2018: The Favourite (Venice), Roma (Venice)
2017: The Shape of Water (Venice)
2016: Arrival (Venice), La La Land (Venice), Manchester by the Sea (Sundance)
2015: Spotlight (Venice)
2014: Birdman (Venice)
2013: Nebraska (Cannes), Gravity (Venice)
2012: Amour (Cannes)
2011: The Artist (Cannes)
2010: Black Swan (Venice)
2009: An Education (Sundance)
So all told, 35 films have played Telluride since 2009 and gone on to a Best Picture nomination. Neglia points out that during that same time period 35 films were Best Picture nominated without any festival debut at all.
But Toronto is a huge player. Yes, they have only World Premiered 12 films from 2009-2022 that have been BP nominated BUT...they have also screened a whopping 41 films that were not World Premieres at TIFF but did receive a Best Picture nomination.
Five each from Sundance and Cannes. 17 from Venice and 14 of the Telluride 15 World Premieres went on to Toronto. The only film not of Telluride's 15 that didn't go on to TIFF was King Richard.
Nine Best Picture Oscar winners in the 2009-22 time frame played both Telluride and Toronto. Here are those films:
We have new trailers this week for a couple of films that are on the periphery of Telluride possibilities.
Luca Guadagnino could return to TFF this year with his story of a three person love affair. Challengers features, Zendaya, Mike Faist and Josh O'Connor in a film set in the world of professional tennis. It is being distributed by United Artists Releasing. The film's release date is set for Sept. 15th. Guadagnino's Bones and All as well as Salvatore: Shoemaker of Dreams were both screened at TFF #49.
And also this week, the trailer for Sofia Coppola's Priscilla which tells the story of the woman who married and divorced Elvis Presley. It stars Cailee Spaeny as Priscilla with Jacob Elordi as the King.
Coppola hasn't screened a film at Telluride since 2003's Lost in Translation but with it being TFF's 50th edition and the Coppola family having strong ties to the history of Telluride, I can see her returning with this film. Priscilla does not yet have an announced release date. Distribution is being handled by A24.
Again, from YouTube:
Both Alex Billington at First Showing.net and Steven Prusakowski at Awards Radar are suggesting that Telluride is realistic stop for the film
Now that Cannes is well and truly underway...see the critical reactions so far in the next bloc...speculation about what films that might be playing Venice is heating up. As Venice spec heats up, so does the speculation about which films will play Venice and Telluride. As I have mentioned before, the two fests now commonly share 6-7 titles per year.
Variety's Nick Vivarelli posted on Thursday a piece titled: Beyond Cannes: Are Zendaya, Emma Stone and Bradley Cooper Already Packing Their Bags for Venice Film Festival?
His claim is that there are a number of films already lined up for Venice. Of the films mentioned in the article, a good number of them could be reasonable candidates to double-dip at Venice and T-ride including:
As Cannes is essentially at its midway point, here's a look at the critical response thus far with an eye toward what seem to be contenders for the Palme d'Or as well as a few other films a few other films of interest.
First, among the Palme d'Or competition films that have jumped to the fore in as far as the general critical reaction, at the top is Jonathan Glazer's The Zone of Interest.
Reini Urban's Critics compilation has Zone with an 8.22 average (on a 10 point scale) and the top comp film with more than 10 reviews averaged. Hirokazu Kore-eda's Monster is second meeting that same criteria with a 7.69 average. Regular readers will know that I have been tracking both of those films as TFF #50 possibilities for some time. Also making some noise according to the Urban metric are Nuri Bilge Ceylan's About Dry Grasses (7.65), Justine Triet's Anatomy of a Fall (7.50) and Todd Haynes' May/December (also on the MTFB TFF #50) watch list.
Among other films that I am watching that also meet the above criteria are the ecstatic reactions for Martin Scorsese's Killers of the flower Moon (8.57)
Michel Gondry's The Book of Solutions 7.48
Steve McQueen's Occupied City 6.45
Wim Wenders Anselm 6.41
Other films from Cannes that are on my TFF radar but that haven't screened yet or have fewer than 10 reviews as yet:
Perfect Days (Wenders)
The Old Oak (Loach)
La Chimera (Rohrwacher)
Strange Way of Life (Almodovar)
I have my eye on a couple of other critical compilations that focus exclusively on Palme contenders. Those are from Ioncinema and the International Cinephile Society. Ioncinema uses a four point scale while ICS uses a five points scale.
Mark it on your calendars...MTFB's first Ten bets for the 50th edition of the Telluride Film Festival is headed your way on June 22nd. What might you expect? Mid-level prediction success! I looked back over the last 11 years (leaving out the Covid year of 2020) and here is my accuracy for each of the first time "Ten Bets" since I began formatting my predictions this way in 2011:
Toronto has completed announcing its lineup and we're just a week-ish away from the 49th edition of the Telluride Film Festival. Some adds and slight changes to this next-to-last set of Bets. I'll have a FINAL TEN (PLUS) BETS in Monday's MTFB post.
By way of re-capping, here's last week's Ten (Plus) Bets:
1) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love
2) Women Talking/Polley
3) Broker/Kore-eda
4) Holy Spider/Abbasi
5) The Wonder/Lelio
6) Empire of Light/Mendes
7) Armageddon Time/Gray
8) Bardo/Inarritu
9) TAR/Fields
10) Bones and All/Guadagnino
11) Good Night Oppy/White
12) A Compassionate Spy/James
13) Godland/Palmason
14) Theatre of Thought/Herzog
15) Living/Hermanus
Others Possibilities: Close/Dhont, Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, The Forger/Peren, Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, Dreamin' Wild/Pohlad, March on Rome/Cousins, Argentina 1985/Mitre, The Story of Film: A New Generation/Cousins, Athena/Gavras, Aftersun/Wells, Anastasia/McCarthy, Sr./Smith.
And here's this weeks updated Bets:
1) Empire of Light/Mendes
2) Women Talking/Polley
3) The Wonder/Lelio
4) Bardo/Iarritu
5) TAR/Field
6) Broker/Kore-eda
7) Holy Spider/Abbasi
8) Armageddon Time/Gray
9) Bones and All/Guadignino
10) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love
11) Godland/Palmason
12) A Compassionate Spy/James
13) Good Night Oppy/White
14) Theatre of Thought/Herzog
15) Sr./Smith
16 The U.S, and the Holocaust/Burns
17) All the Beauty and the Bloodshed/Poitras
18) Close/Dhont
19) Something from Mark Cousins*
20) Aftersun/Wells
Others Possibilities: Living/Hermanus, Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, The Forger/Peren, Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, Dreamin' Wild/Pohlad, Argentina 1985/Mitre, The Story of Film: A New Generation/Cousins*, My Name Is Alfred Hitchcock/Cousins*, March on Rome/Cousins*, Athena/Gavras, Anastasia/McCarthy, The Pupils/Rohrwacher
EMPIRE OF LIGHT POSTER AND TEASER
One of the films that I'm most sure will ply next week at Telluride is Sam Mendes' Empire of Light. At the moment it's among my top 2-3 films to make sure to catch next week. Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised to see an Olivia Colman Tribute that includes the film...though maybe Toby Jones gets a tribute as he appears to be included in two films that will be screen next. In addition to Empire of Light Jones also appears in The Wonder.
At any rate, Searchlight has dropped a cool teaser for the film:
ATHENA GETS A TRAILER
Romain Gavras' Athena is a film that I have been including most of the season as an "Other Possibility" mostly due to its distributor: Netflix and as of late, its scheduled first screening at the Venice Film Fest-9:00 am Sept 2. That's also the same day that TAR and Bones and All are also screening initially. So...it's possible.
Netflix dropped a full trailer on Wednesday ahead of its Venice premiere (and possible Telluride SHOW).
Here's that trailer from YouTube:
IMDb's description of the film:
"Hours after the tragic death of their youngest brother in unexplained circumstances, three siblings have their lives thrown into chaos."
Irrespective if it does play Telluride is its release date for Netflix on Sept. 23rd.
RETURN OF AFTERSUN
You may have noticed that I have returned Charlotte Wells' Aftersun to the actual list of 20 films I'm expecting at TFF #49. That's because multiple sources reached out to me yesterday to let me know that the firm handling the PR for the film had sent an email to various press members that the film is screening at Toronto as a Canadian Premiere. That is at odds with what the film's premiere designation is at the TIFF website as of this morning. It's till listed as a North American Premiere there.
Aftersun is posted for the New York fest with no premiere designation which would normally signal a Telluride appearance...so with that apparent contradiction, I had moved it from the actual "Bets" to the list of "Other Possibilities"
I've thought Aftersun was a likely TFF #49 candidate since it debuted at Cannes last May. Its critical reception and its distribution by A24 made me think it was a very likely choice. Now, it seems, the record is probably set straight and so back to the "Bets" for today.
CAMDEN FILM FEST ANNOUNCEMENT SEEMS TO CONFIRM "SR." FOR TFF #49
Variety reporting selections made for the 18th annual Camden International Film Festival on Monday appear to have confirmed the Telluride world premiere of Chris smith's documentary about Indie film director Robert Downey, Sr. The film is entitled "Sr."
Here's the last paragraph of the Aug. 22nd post:
"This year’s CIFF highlights include the U.S. premiere of Tamana Ayazi and Marcel Mettelsiefen’s Netflix release “In Her Hands,” which follows one of Afghanistan’s first female mayors during the months leading up to the Taliban takeover the country in 2021; Chris Smith’s “Sr.,” centered on the life and career of Robert Downey Sr. and his relationship to his son, Robert Downey Jr.; and Steve James’ “A Compassionate Spy,” about Manhattan Project physicist, Soviet spy and University of Chicago alum Theodore Hall. Each of the three featured documentaries will have made its world premiere before CIFF, at festivals in Toronto, Telluride and Venice, respectively."
BTW, we also think T-ride is going to screen Steve James' A Compassionate Spy at TFF #49.
MARCH ON ROME POSTER
Director Mark Cousins tweeted a photo of the poster for one of his new films: March on Rome which Cousins suggested is: "The new poster for my film about fascism." Not to put too fine a point on it.
Cousins has at least 2-3 projects that could make an appearance at TFF including this one as well as The Story of Film: A New Generation and an Alfred Hitchcock film he has been working on.
Cousins has also recently tweeted about making sure he could get his passport updated for travel to America as well as this tweet from yesterday:
"From Monday for 2 weeks I will be on a film journey in several countries, doing lots of things.
I'll tweet as I go, but mute me if it's a bit much."
This lends continued creedence to my belief that the T-ride regular and TFF member of its Esteemed Council of Advisors will be there next week with something. Maybe two somethings.
A wild couple of days with more announced films from New York and Toronto since Monday's post. As a result, some shakeup in the Ten Bets for this week. Here's a look at last week's Ten Bets:
1) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love
2) Women Talking/Polley
3) Broker/Kore-eda
4) Holy Spider/Abbasi
5) The Wonder/Lelio
6) Empire of Light/Mendes
7) Armageddon Time/Gray
8) Bardo/Inarritu
9) TAR/Fields
10) Bones and All/Guadagnino
11) Good Night Oppy/White
12) The Pale Blue Eye/Cooper
13) A Compassionate Spy/James
14) Aftersun/Wells
15) Close/Dhont
Others Possibilities: Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, The Forger/Peren, Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, The U.S. and the Holocaust/Burns, Dreamin' Wild/Pohlad, March on Rome/Cousins, Argentina 1985/Mitre, The Story of Film: A New Generation/Cousins, Athena/Gavras.
And now for this week:
1) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love
2) Women Talking/Polley
3) Broker/Kore-eda
4) Holy Spider/Abbasi
5) The Wonder/Lelio
6) Empire of Light/Mendes
7) Armageddon Time/Gray
8) Bardo/Inarritu
9) TAR/Fields
10) Bones and All/Guadagnino
11) Good Night Oppy/White
12) A Compassionate Spy/James
13) Godland/Palmason
14) Theatre of Thought/Herzog
15) Living/Hermanus
Others Possibilities: Close/Dhont, Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, The Forger/Peren, Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, Dreamin' Wild/Pohlad, March on Rome/Cousins, Argentina 1985/Mitre, The Story of Film: A New Generation/Cousins, Athena/Gavras, Aftersun/Wells, Godland/Palmason, Anastasia/McCarthy, Sr./Smith, The Holdovers/Payne
"Cooper’s latest, titled “Pale Blue Eye,” will finally not be going to Telluride...Supposedly, there was a pretty bad test-screening earlier in the year.
I'm disappointed as Plae Blue Eye would have been a definite watch on my TFF dance card.
AFTERSUN...MAYBE NOT
You'll notice that I have moved Charlotte Wells Aftersun from a spot in the 15 Bets to "Other Possibilities" this week. That owes to the fact that the film was added this week by the Toronto Fest as a North American Premiere. I have had a notion that it would be a Telluride film from its reception at Cannes back in May. That, I thought, was seemingly confirmed when the New York Fest announced it as part of their Main Slate with no premiere designation.
Now, with the TIFF selection and designation, you have one of those classic moments we've all come to know when the status of a film is contradictory between two fests. What to do?
At this late date I have a hard time believing that Toronto would get this wrong. Accordingly I moved Aftersun off the Bets list for this week and even really thought that I wouldn't even include it as an "Other Possibility".
HERZOG YES...JUST NOT WHAT WE THOUGHT
Photo via TIFF
Werner Herzog's Theatre of Thought was announced on Wednesday as an International Premiere for Toronto. The film is so fresh that you can't find it listed on Herzog's IMDb Pro page. The International Premiere status means that it will have played within its country of origin. So one can surmise that the film will likely play Telluride (rather than Fantastic Fest which doesn't start until TIFF is over).
Here is the TIFF description for the film:
"Werner Herzog sets his sights on yet another mysterious landscape — the human brain — for clues as to why a hunk of tissue can produce profound thoughts and feelings while considering the philosophical, ethical, and social implications of fast-advancing neural technology."
As a side note, this seeming confirmation that this Herzog doc is playing TFF #49 don't discount the possibility that The Fire Within might also screen at Telluride.
LIVING AND VENICE-A CLUE?
So many chunks of information to sift through this week including the release of the schedule for the Venice Film Fest. That is often a good indicator of films that will play at Venice first before making the trans-Atlantic flight to Telluride.
To make the leap films generally play the first three to four days of the Venice affair. This year Venice opens on Aug. 31st. So what films that we believe are playing Telluride are loaded in that time frame?
8/31- TAR and Living
9/1- Bardo, A Compassionate Spy
9/2 Bones and All, Athena, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
9/3 Argentina 1985
So, we've been pretty sure about Bardo, TAR and Bones and All for awhile. I'm also pretty confident about A Compassionate Spy.
I think most of you have seen my theory about Living making a stop at Telluride and this early screening time for it fits that theory really well.
As for Athena...timing works well enough. Argentina 1985 is problematic with the screening on Day 4 and I'm still leery that All the Beauty is, in fact as advertised by some portions of the Toronto PR, a North American Premiere there and won't be at TFF #49.
Toronto's announcement yesterday included Hylnur Palmason's Godland as a Canadian Premiere. The film played Cannes as a part of the Un Certain Regard program where it was generally well regarded by critics.
Godland has played a number of other international film fests including: Sydney, Transylvania and New Horizons. The Canadian Premiere designation means an almost certain play at TFF #49.
The IMDb description of the film:
"In the late 19th century, a young Danish priest travels to a remote part of Iceland to build a church and photograph its people. But the deeper he goes into the unforgiving landscape, the more he strays from his purpose, his mission and morality."
OTHER THOUGHTS:
Looks like Sarah McCarthy's short Anastasia could be Telluride bound as it is listed by Toronto as a Canadian Premiere.
NYFF announced a screening of Chris Smith's Sr. a documentary focused on the life of Robert Downey Sr. NYFF listed without any premiere designation which could mean a TFF #49 play.
Here's your latest edition of MTFB's Ten Bets for the TFF #49 lineup. There is a good deal of movement after last week's announcement of Galas and Special Presentations from the Toronto International Film Festival. Also making a difference was reporting from Jordan Ruimy/World of Reel and others.
As a recap, here are the Ten Bets and Other Possibilities from last week:
1) Bardo/Inarritu
2) TAR/Fields
3) Bones and All/Guadagnino
4) Armageddon Time/Gray
5) Close/Dhont
6) Aftersun/Wells
7) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love
8) The Son/Zeller
9) She Said/M. Schrader
10) The Pale Blue Eye/Cooper
Others Possibilities: Master Gardener/P. Schrader, Women Talking/Polley, Broker/Kore-eda, Showing Up/Reichardt, Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, Holy Spider/Abbasi, White Noise/Baumbach, The Forger/Peren,Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, The U.S. and the Holocaust/Burns, The Wonder/Lelio, Blonde/Dominik, The Whale/Aronofsky, Dreamin' Wild/Pohlad, March on Rome/Cousins, Living/Hermanus
And here are the new and significantly altered Ten (Plus) Bets:
1) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love
2) Women Talking/Polley
3) Broker/Kore-eda
4) Holy Spider/Abbasi
5) The Wonder/Lelio
6) Empire of Light/Mendes
7) Good Night Oppy/White
8) Bardo/Inarritu
9) TAR/Fields
10) Bones and All/Guadagnino
11) Armageddon Time/Gray
12) The Pale Blue Eye/Cooper
13) A Compassionate Spy/James
14) Close/Dhont
15) Aftersun/Wells
Others Possibilities: Master Gardener/P. Schrader, Showing Up/Reichardt, Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, The Forger/Peren,Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, The U.S. and the Holocaust/Burns, Blonde/Dominik, Dreamin' Wild/Pohlad, March on Rome/Cousins, Argentina 1985/Mitre
The biggest blows to last week's Ten Bets came with the likelihood that She Said will World Premiere at the New York Film Festival and that The Son will will World Premiere at Toronto.
We expect TIFF to announce its Midnight Madness program tomorrow which will probably not have any effect regarding what we can deduce about TFF #49.
NO GDT AT TFF
Admittedly I've thought all summer that the chances pf Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio [laying TFF #49 were slim but that chances seem to have been laid to rest. Jordan Ruimy at World of reel reports that the film will not be finished until sometime in October at the earliest.
The New York Film Festival announced on Tuesday that Noah Baumbach's White Noise will open their fest on Sept. 30th and NYFF has labeled the film a North American premiere. Assuming that characterization is accurate and Telluride maintains its unspoken policy of features being a first time North American screening, that means White Noise is off the speculation list for TFF #49.
I had been hearing some buzz that this could be true but the scheduling of White Noise as the opener for Venice kept me thinking that there was a great chance that the film would play in Italy and then slide across the Atlantic to land in the San Juans. Looks like that's not happening.
BUT PROBABLY A PALE BLUE EYE
I've had Scott Cooper's The Pale Blue Eye on the TFF #49 watch list for a long time and now there's scuttlebutt that the Christian Bale led film, is in fact, likely screening for the first time in Telluride. World of Reel's Jordan Ruimy snuck the increased chance that this will be true into a post called "What's Left-Part Deux".
This is what Ruimy writes:
"I’m getting more Telluride intel, this one concerning Scott Cooper’s “Pale Blue Eye” which will be having its world premiere over there."
Here's the IMDb description of the film:
"At West Point Academy in 1830, the calm of an October evening is shattered by the discovery of a young cadet's body swinging from a rope just off the parade grounds. An apparent suicide is not unheard of in a harsh regimen like West Point's, but the next morning, an even greater horror comes to light. Someone has stolen into the room where the body lay and removed the heart."
The film "Follows a veteran detective who investigates the murders, helped by a detail-oriented young cadet who will later become a world famous author, Edgar Allan Poe."
Previous Cooper collaborator Christian Bale (Hostiles, Out of the Furnace) as the detective and Henry Melling (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs) as Poe join to tell this tale.
For me, it's a "most anticipated". Feeling really good that it's a TFF #49 selection.
Living starring Bill Nighy made a splash at Sundance earlier this year with a number of mentions of Nighy as a possible Oscar contender for Best Actor. Clayton Davis at Variety currently has Nighy at the #3 spot for a nomination.
The case against a Telluride play is, of course, the Sundance premiere back in January. Also, Venice head Alberto Barbera is on record saying that there will less of an overlap between his fest and Telluride and Living IS a Venice selection. But...
The case for a TFF #49 play includes the fact that it is under the wing of Sony Pictures Classics (a very tight Telluride connection). It's inclusion in the Venice out-of-competition lineup, despite having already bowed at Sundance-very unusual for Venice to schedule a non-World Premiere.
And, of late, Telluride has scheduled a couple of Sundance films that were tied to tributes. In 2016 T-ride invited Manchester-by-the-Sea, a film distributed by Amazon/Roadside Attractions -decent Telluride presence for each- and featured Casey Affleck as a tribute recipient. In 2018 TFF did the same with Adam Driver featuring both Marriage Story (from Netflix-a very good T-ride relationship) and The Report(from Amazon), which had premiered at Sundance.
So, could Bill Nighy be up for a Tribute and a screening of Living? Nighy also has a film called A Beautiful Game from Netflix that has yet to be screened anywhere and is listed by IMDb as having been in post-production since January.
So it's not outside the realm of possibility.
TEASER FOR ARGENTINA, 1985
Argentina 1985 is a Venice Golden Lion competition choice and seems like a sleeper for a spot at Telluride. That it was partially produced by Amazon Studios suggests the possibility that it could make the lineup when it is unveiled on Sept. 1st.
IMDb's description intrigues:
"A team of lawyers take on the heads of Argentina's bloody military dictatorship during the 1980s in a battle against odds and a race against time."
The first teaser for the film was released last week and here it is via YouTube:
We've got some shuffling of the players this week following the news from Venice announcing its lineup. First here's your re-cap of last week's Ten Bets:
1) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love
2) The Son/Zeller
3) Close/Dhont
4) Armageddon Time/Gray
5) Bardo/Inarritu
6) TAR/Fields
7) Women Talking/Polley
8) Aftersun/Wells
9) The Pale Blue Eye/Cooper
10) The Master Gardener/P. Schrader
Others Possibilities: Broker/Kore-eda, Showing Up/Reichardt, Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, Holy Spider/Abbasi, The Forger/Peren, She Said/M. Schrader, Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, The U.S. and the Holocaust/Burns, The Wonder/Lelio, Blonde/Dominik
And here's this week's updated Ten Bets:
1) Bardo/Inarritu
2) TAR/Fields
3) Bones and All/Guadagnino
4) Armageddon Time/Gray
5) Close/Dhont
6) Aftersun/Wells
7) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love
8) The Son/Zeller
9) She Said/M. Schrader
10) The Pale Blue Eye/Cooper
Others Possibilities: Master Gardener/P. Schrader, Women Talking/Polley, Broker/Kore-eda, Showing Up/Reichardt, Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, Holy Spider/Abbasi, The Forger/Peren,Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, The U.S. and the Holocaust/Burns, The Wonder/Lelio, Blonde/Dominik, The Whale/Aronofsky, White Noise/Baumbach. Dreamin' Wild/Pohlad, March on Rome/Cousins
WILD TUESDAY-PART ONE
It was a wild Tuesday afternoon earlier this week as separate interviews with Venice Film Festival Artistic Director Alberto Barbera stirred the fall film fest pot by dropping some Telluride news. First the confirmations (it would seem).
In an interview with Variety's Nick Vivarelli, Barbera revealed that Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu's Bardo, Todd Field's TAR and Luca Guadagnino's Bones and All will be making the jump from Venice to Telluride (hence those films jumping to the top of this week's Ten Bets above).
Here's the quote from the Varity interview:
"One that is going [to Telluride] is”Tar,” as are the Iñárritu and Guadagnino films."
In the same paragraph, Barbera says that there will not be as large a Venice/Telluride crossover as has been the case in past years:
"My impression is that there will be fewer films going from Venice to Telluride this year — not that there aren’t any... But in past years there were more, which has resulted in Venice being a bit less “top-heavy” this year."
So Barbera isn't saying that there aren't others in addition to Bardo, TAR and Bones but fewer. I did a little digging and discovered that approximately 67 films have made the trek from Venice to Telluride over the past 10 years. Peak years were 2021 and 2018 with nine films moving form Italy to Colorado. Weak years were 2019, 2014 and 2012 with 4. The average, as you can deduce, is 6-7 films each year.
So...likely there will be an addition or two beyond the three Barbera revealed.
Prior to the Venice announcement there had been strong speculation that those films might include Baumbach's White Noise, Aronofsky's The Whale and Zeller's The Son. In my Special Post from Tuesday morning with the Venice lineup, I indicated several other films that might be in line to make the trip from Venice to T-ride:
Argentina 1985
Athena
Blonde
A Couple
No Bears
Dreamin' Wild
Master Gardener
Freedom on Fire: Ukraine's Fight for Freedom
Il Viaggio
Best bets to also move from Venice to The SHOW: White Noise, Master Gardener and The Son.
And if that wasn't enough...Barbera had an interview with Deadline.com that was posted Tuesday. Matt Neglia of Next Best Picture screen captured the electrifying news and posted it to Twitter:
Making it easier to read:
"There was only one film we couldn't see, which was the Spielberg film [The Fabelmans]. They decided to go domestic with Telluride. It was a film that all the fall festivals wanted to see but no one got to see it internationally other than Toronto."
Needless to say my Twitter feed lit up.
A few minutes later the story was re-posted with the sentence "They decided to go domestic with Telluride" edited out.
Now, I will admit that I reached out to Deadline to confirm and/or clarify the sentence. It was after that email that the edit occurred that eliminated the Telluride mention.
So, what gives? Seems like these are the possibilities:
Barbera got it wrong.
Deadline got it wrong.
Telluride screened it and decided not to invite it...thus preserving its World Premiere status for Toronto.
Telluride screened and Universal then decided not to go to T-ride after all.
Telluride does have it and TIFF's WP status is flawed.
It was pointed out to me that this could be a repeat of last year when TIFF announced Kenneth Branagh's Belfast as a World Premiere only to have it bow at Telluride first. Could that be the case with The Fabelmans?
The icing on the cake was a Jordan Ruimy/World of Reel post late on Tuesday in which he says no Fabelmans at The SHOW per a TFF source:
"I’m here to tell you, let’s please stop the speculation. A Telluride source has confirmed to me that “The Fabelmans” is not going to that festival."
TIFF is using a drip-drip-drip method of announcing World Premieres that they haven't used before. As that list grows, I will be posting so we know which films are at TIFF and won't be at TFF#49. Those announced to date are:
While we wait for some full-scale announcements from the Toronto International Film Festival which should give us some serious insight about the way the fall film slate is going to shake out...
Here's a re-cap of last week's Ten Bets:
1) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love
2) The Son/Zeller
3) Close/Dhont
4) Women Talking/Polley
5) Aftersun/Wells
6) Bardo/Inarritu
7) TAR/Fields
8) Showing Up/Reichardt
9) Broker/Kore-eda
10) Armageddon Time/Gray
Others: The Pale Blue Eye/Cooper, The Master Gardener/P. Schrader, Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, Holy Spider/Abbasi, The Forger/Peren, Babylon/Chazelle, She Said/M. Schrader
And here is your fresh Ten Bets:
1) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love
2) The Son/Zeller
3) Close/Dhont
4) Women Talking/Polley
5) Aftersun/Wells
6) Bardo/Inarritu
7) TAR/Fields
8) Armageddon Time/Gray
9) The Pale Blue Eye/Cooper
10) The Master Gardener/P. Schrader
Others Possibilties: Broker/Kore-eda, Showing Up/Reichardt, Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, Holy Spider/Abbasi, The Forger/Peren, Babylon/Chazelle, She Said/M. Schrader, Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, The U.S. and the Holocaust/Burns, The Wonder/Lelio
The top seven remain unchanged as Armageddon Time moves up The Master Gardener returns as a "Bet" and Scott Cooper's Pale Blue Eye moves onto he "Bets" for the first time this summer.
Broker and Showing Up have slipped into the "Other Possibilities" section.
PAUL SCHRADER: ANOTHER HONOR
News from Deadline that Paul Schrader will be honored in August at the Sarajevo Film Festival with the "Heart of Sarajevo". That news comes after it was previously announced that Shrader will be honored for lifetime achievement at the Venice Film Festival.
The Sarajevo announcement reveals that Schrader will be screening The Card Counter and doing a Masterclass as part of the Sarajevo program. No mention of a screening of The Master Gardener which almost certainly will screen at Venice.
News this week that Cannes' Jury prize-winner The Eight Mountains had been jointly acquired for distribution by Janus Films and Sideshow. That bumps the film co-directed by Felix van Groeningen (Beautiful Boy and Broken Circle Breakdown) and Charlotte Vadermeersch squarely into the Telluride conversation.
Janus' past Telluride appearances have included:
The Eyes of Orson Welles
Cameraperson
Le Havre
Janus also has distribution for a couple of other TFF #49 possibilities: Tori and Lokita and EO. A TFF selection would be a first for Sideshow.
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