Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
"But it's our job." - Anne Thompson, Indiewire
I am updating predictions in the categories of Best Actress and Best Actor. These were last predicted on Nov. 21st. Past ranking is to the right of the performer in parentheses. Performances from TFF #49 are in Bold.
BEST ACTRESS
1) Cate Blanchett/TAR (1)
2) Michelle Yeoh/Everything Everywhere All at Once (2)
3) Michelle Williams/The Fabelmans (4)
4) Danielle Deadwyler/Till (3)
5) Margot Robbie/Babylon (5)
6) Viola Davis/The Woman King (7)
7) Olivia Colman/Empire of Light (6)
BEST ACTOR
1) Brendan Fraser/The Whale (1)
2) Colin Ferrell/The Banshees of Inisherin (2)
3) Austin Butler/Elvis (3)
4) Bill Nighy/Living (4)
5) Tom Cruise/Top Gun: Maverick (6)
6) Hugh Jackman/The Son (7)
7) Gabriel LaBelle/The Fabelmans (New)
Out: Diego Calva/Babylon
NEW YORK FILM CRITICS CIRCLE AND TFF #9 FILMS
New York critics tapped three TFF #49 films and a TFF #48 film with a total of five awards on Friday with Todd Field's TAR leading the charge winning awards for Best Feature and Best Actress for Cate Blanchett's searing performance. Charlotte Wells' Aftersun was lauded for Best First Feature. The other TFF #49 recognition was for Laura Poitras' documentary on the life and work of photographer and activist nan Goldin: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed.
TFF #48's Marcel the Shell with Shoes On was named the year's Best Animated Feature. Congrats to Dean Fleischer Camp and Jenny Slate and the whole Marcel crew. Regular readers know that Marcel is on of my passions this awards season.
In other NYFCC news of note, Martin McDonagh's The Banshees of Inisherin made noise with two wins. One for Best Actor for Colin Farrell and the other for McDonagh's Screenplay.
I am updating predictions in the categories of Best Supporting Actress and Best Supporting Actor. These were last predicted on Oct. 27th. Past ranking is to the right of the performer in parentheses. Performances from TFF #49 are in Bold.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1) Jesse Buckley/Women Talking (1)
2) Kerry Condon/The Banshees of Inisherin (5)
3) Clare Foy/Women Talking (2)
4) Hong Chau/The Whale (3)
5) Carey Mulligan/She Said (4)
6) Nina Hoss/TAR (New)
7) Dolly DeLeon/Triangle of Sadness (New)
Out: Jamie Lee Curtis/Everything Everywhere and Janelle Monae/Glass Onion
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Brendan Gleeson/The Banshees of Inisherin (1)
2) Ke Huy Quan/Everything Everywhere All at Once (2)
3) Judd Hirsch/The Fabelmans (3)
4) Ben Whishaw/Women Talking (4)
5) Paul Dano/The Fabelmans (5)
6) Barry Keoghan/The Banshees of Inisherin (New)
7) Anthony Hopkins/Armageddon Time (7)
Out: Eddie Redmayne/The Good Nurse
EUROPEAN FILM AWARDS AND TFF #49
The nominations for the European Film Awards were announced on Tuesday. Here are how films that screened at Telluride this year fared:
Close (4): Best European Film, Direction, Actor (Dambrine), Screenwriter
Holy Spider (4): European Film, Direction, Actress (Amir-Ebrahimi), Screenwriter
TFF #49 films with a single EFA nomination:
Aftersun: Best European Actor (Mescal)
One Fine Morning: Best European Actress (Seydoux)
Godland: Best European Actor (Hove)
March on Rome: Best European Documentary
And from TFF #48 a nomination for Best European Screenwriter for Kenneth Branagh's Belfast
Two weeks after the 49th Telluride Film Festival, here are the results from this year's People's ratings of the films that played there.
I asked for readers of MTFB to rate the films they saw over Labor Day weekend at TFF #49 on a 1-5 scale and submit that information to me. I then complied the responses (nearly 50 this year) and averaged them all to arrive at each film's ratings. To make the cut, only films that received at least a third of the total number of respondents were included to insure the sampling size was sufficient. 13 films qualified for listing. You'll see the results below after a brief trip down The People's Telluride memory lane.
The first People's Telluride was posted on Sept. 10, 2012. The top ten films from that year's fest from the populist perspective were:
1) Stories We Tell- 4.80
2) Argo- 4.75
3) The Attack- 4.70
4) The Act of Killing-4.41
5) Wadjda-4.2
6) Amour 4.17
7) Barbara- 4.17
8) The Sapphires-4.11
9) Frances Ha-4.07
10) (Tie)The Hunt and Baraka - 4.00
In subsequent years the top ten were:
2013:
1) Tim's Vermeer (4.67)
2) 12 Years a Slave (4.55)
3) Gravity (4.40)
4) The Lunchbox (4.25)
5) Inside Llewyn Davis (4.15)
6) Nebraska (4.08)
7) All is Lost (4.06)
8) The Wind Rises (4.0)
9) Ida (4.0)
10) The Past (3.81)
2014:
1) The Imitation Game (4.73)
2) Birdman (4.46)
3) Wild Tales (4.23)
4) Foxcatcher (4.20)
5) Merchants of Doubt (4.04)
6) '71 (3.90)
7) Red Army (3.63)
8) Wild (Tie 3.50)
8) Escobar: Paradise Lost (Tie 3.50)
8) Mommy (Tie 3.50)
2015:
1) Room (4.47)
2) Spotlight (4.45)
3) Beasts of No Nation (4.35)
4) Ixcanul (4.31)
5) Son of Saul (4.30)
6) Marguerite (4.23)
7) Black Mass (4.13)
8) Carol (4.02)
9) Rams (3.98)
10) Steve Jobs (3.86)
2016:
1) Moonlight (4.37)
2) La La Land (4.33)
3) Maudie (4.29)
4) The Eagle Huntress (4.21)
5) Manchester by the Sea (4.18)
6) Arrival (4.13)
7) Bright Lights (3.90)
8) Frantz (3.89)
9) Toni Erdmann (3.80)
10) Sully (3.79)
2017:
1) Lady Bird (4.38)
2) The Shape of Water (4.22)
3) Darkest Hour (4.04)
4) Hostiles (3.99)
5) Faces Places (3.71)
6) Battle of the Sexes (3.68)
7) Lean on Pete (3.66)
8) Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (3.57)
9) The Other Side of Hope (3.45)
10) Wonderstruck (3.43)
2018
1) Roma (4.47)
2) First Man (4.34)
3) Shoplifters (4.29)
4) Boy Erased (4.23)
5) Free Solo (4.19)
6) Cold War (4.02)
7) White Boy Rick (3.88)
8) Can You Ever Forgive Me? (3.81)
9) The Favourite (3.76)
10) The Front Runner (3.69)
2019:
1) The Two Popes (4.51)
2) Parasite (4.36)
3) Ford v. Ferrari (4.35)
4) Marriage Story (4.14)
5) Pain and Glory (3.81-Tie)
5) A Hidden Life (3.81-Tie)
7) Judy (3.80)
8) The Aeronauts (3.67)
9) The Report (3.66)
10) Motherless Brooklyn (3.64)
11) Lyrebird (3.62)
12) Waves (3.61)
13) Inside Bill's Brain (3.39)
14) Uncut Gems (3.22)
15) The Climb (3.07)
16) First Cow (3.02)
No People's poll in 2020.
2021:
1) The Power of the Dog (4.63)
2) The Rescue (4.20)
3) Julia (4.18)
4) Belfast (4.12)
5) King Richard (4.06)
6) C'mon C'mon (3.93)
7) The Hand of God (3.83)
8) Cyrano (3,62)
9) A Hero (3.60)
10) Marcel the Shell (3.57)
11) The Duke (3.53)
12) Spencer-tie- (3.50)
12) The Electrical Life of Louis Wain-tie- (3.50)
14) The Lost Daughter (3.44)
15) Red Rocket (3.41)
16) Petite Maman (3.25)
17) The French Dispatch (2.50)
18) Encounter (2.43)
AND NOW...THE PEOPLE'S TELLURIDE FOR 2022:
1) Women Talking 4.22
2) TAR 4.20
3) Sr. 3.98
4) The Wonder 3.86-(TIE)
4) One Fine Morning 3.86 (TIE) 6) Bones and All 3.77
7) Living 3.70
8) Aftersun 3.63
9) Armageddon Time 3.62
10) Broker 3.57
11) Godland 3.50
12) Empire of Light 3.43
13) Lady Chatterley's Lover 3.31
The most watched films were: TAR, Women Talking and Empire of Light, all of which were seen and rated by 85% of all respondents to the poll. Other films that were viewed by over half the respondents were:
Bones and All 72%
Armageddon Time 68%
The Wonder 57%
Living and Broker 55%
The People's poll included three films that were not in The Professional's poll: Sr., Broker and Godland. Interestingly, the film I heard the most positive buzz about all weekend was Ryan White's Good Night Oppy. Neither The People or the Pros had enough views for the film to qualify in either poll.
Also...here are the Best Picture Oscar nominees from Telluride that have landed on the Peoples list for each year since it was started in 2012:
2012: Argo-4.75 (Winner) #2, Amour-4.17 #6
2013: 12 Years a Slave-4.55 (Winner) #2, Gravity-4.40 #3, Nebraska-4.08 #6
2014: Birdman-4.46 (Winner) #2, The Imitation Game-4.73 #1
2015: Spotlight-4.45 (Winner) #2, Room-4.47 #1
2016: Moonlight-4.37 (Winner) #1, La La Land 4.33 #2, Manchester by the Sea-4.18 #5, Arrival-4.13 #6
2017: The Shape of Water-4.22 #2 (Winner), Lady Bird-4.38 #1, Darkest Hour-4.04 #3
2018: Roma-4.47, The Favourite-3.76 #9
2019: Parasite- 4.36 (Winner) #2, Ford v. Ferrari 4.35 #3, Marriage Story 4.14 #4
2021: The Power of the Dog- 4.63, Belfast- 4.12, King Richard 4.06
The all time People's Top Ten:
1) Stories We Tell (4.80) (12)
2) Argo (4.75) (12)-Won Best Picture
3) The Imitation Game (4.73) (14) Nominated Best Picture
4) The Attack (4.70) (12)
5) Tim's Vermeer (4.67) (13)
6) The Power of the Dog (4.63) (21) Nominated Best Picture
7) 12 Years a Slave (4.55) (13) Won Best Picture
8) The Two Popes (4.51) (19)
9) Roma (4.47) (15) TIE Nominated Best Picture
9) Room (4.47) (18) TIE Nominated Best Picture
The Composite Telluride will go up on Monday!
THE FABELMANS WINS TORONTO
Steven Spielberg's semi-autobiographical film The Fabelman's was named the winner of the Toronto International Film Festival's People's Choice Award yesterday... to no one's surprise. Considering critical and social media reactions to the film, the surprise would have been that it had not won. Frankly, I thought from the buzz that was coming out of TIFF that the only film that might have a shot at denying the PC Award to The Fabelmans was Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery.
As it turned out, the runner-up happened to be today's MTFB People's poll topper Women Talking. Glass Onion ended up as the second runner-up.
I think you could fairly say that The Fabelmans is now the post Telluride-Venice-Toronto Best Picture frontrunner. To my mind the only possible threat to it is the upcoming release of Damien Chazelle's Babylon. I'll likely have my first set of Oscar predictions up on the blog a week from today as we close the book on the fest season for the most part and head into the Oscar season.
Belgium revealed last Friday that it will submit Lukas Dhont's Close as its candidate for the International Feature Oscar. The film, which you will note from above did not have enough views to qualify for this year's MTFB People's poll, could be a strong contender based on its reception atCannes where it won the Grand Prix award.
Close is described at IMDb as follows:
"The intense friendship between two thirteen-year old boys Leo and Remi suddenly gets disrupted. Struggling to understand what has happened, Léo approaches Sophie, Rémi's mother. "Close" is a film about friendship and responsibility."
Close is being distributed in the U.S. by A24 and, as yet has no release date.
NEW POSTER FOR THE WONDER
Netflix revealed a new poster for Sebastian DeLillo's The Wonder on Friday. Here that is:
A wild couple of days with more announced films from New York and Toronto since Monday's post. As a result, some shakeup in the Ten Bets for this week. Here's a look at last week's Ten Bets:
1) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love
2) Women Talking/Polley
3) Broker/Kore-eda
4) Holy Spider/Abbasi
5) The Wonder/Lelio
6) Empire of Light/Mendes
7) Armageddon Time/Gray
8) Bardo/Inarritu
9) TAR/Fields
10) Bones and All/Guadagnino
11) Good Night Oppy/White
12) The Pale Blue Eye/Cooper
13) A Compassionate Spy/James
14) Aftersun/Wells
15) Close/Dhont
Others Possibilities: Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, The Forger/Peren, Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, The U.S. and the Holocaust/Burns, Dreamin' Wild/Pohlad, March on Rome/Cousins, Argentina 1985/Mitre, The Story of Film: A New Generation/Cousins, Athena/Gavras.
And now for this week:
1) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love
2) Women Talking/Polley
3) Broker/Kore-eda
4) Holy Spider/Abbasi
5) The Wonder/Lelio
6) Empire of Light/Mendes
7) Armageddon Time/Gray
8) Bardo/Inarritu
9) TAR/Fields
10) Bones and All/Guadagnino
11) Good Night Oppy/White
12) A Compassionate Spy/James
13) Godland/Palmason
14) Theatre of Thought/Herzog
15) Living/Hermanus
Others Possibilities: Close/Dhont, Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, The Forger/Peren, Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, Dreamin' Wild/Pohlad, March on Rome/Cousins, Argentina 1985/Mitre, The Story of Film: A New Generation/Cousins, Athena/Gavras, Aftersun/Wells, Godland/Palmason, Anastasia/McCarthy, Sr./Smith, The Holdovers/Payne
"Cooper’s latest, titled “Pale Blue Eye,” will finally not be going to Telluride...Supposedly, there was a pretty bad test-screening earlier in the year.
I'm disappointed as Plae Blue Eye would have been a definite watch on my TFF dance card.
AFTERSUN...MAYBE NOT
You'll notice that I have moved Charlotte Wells Aftersun from a spot in the 15 Bets to "Other Possibilities" this week. That owes to the fact that the film was added this week by the Toronto Fest as a North American Premiere. I have had a notion that it would be a Telluride film from its reception at Cannes back in May. That, I thought, was seemingly confirmed when the New York Fest announced it as part of their Main Slate with no premiere designation.
Now, with the TIFF selection and designation, you have one of those classic moments we've all come to know when the status of a film is contradictory between two fests. What to do?
At this late date I have a hard time believing that Toronto would get this wrong. Accordingly I moved Aftersun off the Bets list for this week and even really thought that I wouldn't even include it as an "Other Possibility".
HERZOG YES...JUST NOT WHAT WE THOUGHT
Photo via TIFF
Werner Herzog's Theatre of Thought was announced on Wednesday as an International Premiere for Toronto. The film is so fresh that you can't find it listed on Herzog's IMDb Pro page. The International Premiere status means that it will have played within its country of origin. So one can surmise that the film will likely play Telluride (rather than Fantastic Fest which doesn't start until TIFF is over).
Here is the TIFF description for the film:
"Werner Herzog sets his sights on yet another mysterious landscape — the human brain — for clues as to why a hunk of tissue can produce profound thoughts and feelings while considering the philosophical, ethical, and social implications of fast-advancing neural technology."
As a side note, this seeming confirmation that this Herzog doc is playing TFF #49 don't discount the possibility that The Fire Within might also screen at Telluride.
LIVING AND VENICE-A CLUE?
So many chunks of information to sift through this week including the release of the schedule for the Venice Film Fest. That is often a good indicator of films that will play at Venice first before making the trans-Atlantic flight to Telluride.
To make the leap films generally play the first three to four days of the Venice affair. This year Venice opens on Aug. 31st. So what films that we believe are playing Telluride are loaded in that time frame?
8/31- TAR and Living
9/1- Bardo, A Compassionate Spy
9/2 Bones and All, Athena, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
9/3 Argentina 1985
So, we've been pretty sure about Bardo, TAR and Bones and All for awhile. I'm also pretty confident about A Compassionate Spy.
I think most of you have seen my theory about Living making a stop at Telluride and this early screening time for it fits that theory really well.
As for Athena...timing works well enough. Argentina 1985 is problematic with the screening on Day 4 and I'm still leery that All the Beauty is, in fact as advertised by some portions of the Toronto PR, a North American Premiere there and won't be at TFF #49.
Toronto's announcement yesterday included Hylnur Palmason's Godland as a Canadian Premiere. The film played Cannes as a part of the Un Certain Regard program where it was generally well regarded by critics.
Godland has played a number of other international film fests including: Sydney, Transylvania and New Horizons. The Canadian Premiere designation means an almost certain play at TFF #49.
The IMDb description of the film:
"In the late 19th century, a young Danish priest travels to a remote part of Iceland to build a church and photograph its people. But the deeper he goes into the unforgiving landscape, the more he strays from his purpose, his mission and morality."
OTHER THOUGHTS:
Looks like Sarah McCarthy's short Anastasia could be Telluride bound as it is listed by Toronto as a Canadian Premiere.
NYFF announced a screening of Chris Smith's Sr. a documentary focused on the life of Robert Downey Sr. NYFF listed without any premiere designation which could mean a TFF #49 play.
The New York Film Festival's full Main Slate announcement on Tuesday allowed us to interpret information about possible TFF #49 selections but mostly at the margins. It also posed a couple of mysteries.
That said, here's a review of last week's Ten (Plus) Bets:
1) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love
2) Women Talking/Polley
3) Broker/Kore-eda
4) Holy Spider/Abbasi
5) The Wonder/Lelio
6) Empire of Light/Mendes
7) Good Night Oppy/White
8) Bardo/Inarritu
9) TAR/Field
10) Bones and All/Guadagnino
11) Armageddon Time/Gray
12) The Pale Blue Eye/Cooper
13) A Compassionate Spy/James
14) Close/Dhont
15) Aftersun/Wells
Others Possibilities: Master Gardener/P. Schrader, Showing Up/Reichardt, Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, The Forger/Peren,Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, The U.S. and the Holocaust/Burns, Blonde/Dominik, Dreamin' Wild/Pohlad, March on Rome/Cousins, Argentina 1985/Mitre
And here is the latest Ten (Plus) Bets:
1) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love
2) Women Talking/Polley
3) Broker/Kore-eda
4) Holy Spider/Abbasi
5) The Wonder/Lelio
6) Empire of Light/Mendes
7) Armageddon Time/Gray
8) Bardo/Inarritu
9) TAR/Fields
10) Bones and All/Guadagnino
11) Good Night Oppy/White
12) The Pale Blue Eye/Cooper
13) A Compassionate Spy/James
14) Aftersun/Wells
15) Close/Dhont
Others Possibilities: Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, The Forger/Peren, Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, The U.S. and the Holocaust/Burns, Dreamin' Wild/Pohlad, March on Rome/Cousins, Argentina 1985/Mitre, The Story of Film: A New Generation/Cousins, Athena/Gavras
See the next section for New York analysis and its effect or lack thereof.
NEW YORK ANNOUNCES MAIN SLATE
In the run-up to yesterday's announcement NYFF had already announced White Noise, Armageddon Time, Till and All the Beauty and the Bloodshed as various special presentations. From those announcements I had gleaned that White Noise, Till and The Inspection were off the list for a Telluride screening, Cagey wording for the Armageddon Time announcement and lack of a premiere designation for All the Beauty made me think that those films could still be TFF possibilities.
With yesterday's announcement, here's what I think we can say:
Lack of any premiere status makes me believe that Armageddon Time, TAR, One Fine Morning and Aftersun are headed to TFF #49.
Premiere status for Master Gardener (North American premiere) and Showing Up (North American premiere) tell us that both films will NOT be at Telluride. Other films that I had as borderline Telluride possibilities that will not make the trip to the San Juans: EO, No Bears, R.M.N., Return to Seoul and Stars at Noon.
There were also films with no premiere status that likely will NOT be T-ride players because they played at Sundance: All That Breathes and Descendant.
Mysteries:
1) Laura Poitras' All the Beauty and the Bloodshed was listed in some NYFF's release materials without a premiere designation and in others as a U.S. premiere. Confusing? Of course. My feeling is that the documentary probably IS a U.S. premiere at NYFF and not bound for T-ride. We'll see.
2) Joanna Hogg's The Eternal Daughter has no premiere status which lead me to think for awhile on Tuesday that it could be at T-ride. Then a sharp-eyed MTFB reader reminded me that the film has a North American premiere status for Toronto. Now, it's my belief that Eternal Daughter will probably play Fantastic Fest and that would account for its lack of premiere status in the NYFF announcement.
3) Park Chan-wook's Decision to Leave has no NYFF premiere status either. Perhaps it is also headed to Fantastic Fest? I tend to believe the Toronto North American premiere status and thus no Telluride.
4) Ruben Ostlund's Cannes Palme d'Or winner Triangle of Sadness also has no NYFF premiere status but like Decision to Leave is listed by Toronto as a North American premiere. Like Decision to Leave, I suspect that TIFF's designation is correct and so Triangle of Sadness isn't headed to T-ride.
5) She Said was not announced as a part of NYFF's "Main Slate". Back on August 1st I reported that She Said was going to land at NYFF and as a World Premiere. That came from reporting from Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel.
Now, NYFF likely has some other films to add but it seems more than weird that She Said wasn't a part of the Main Slate of films announced Tuesday.
So, it seems to me that She Said may be more uncertain as a NYFF WP than previously thought.
On the other hand...can you say NYFF "secret screening"?
TEASER FOR BONES AND ALL
The peeps behind Luca Guadagnino's Bones and All dropped a teaser late yesterday afternoon. I'm expecting the film to SHOW at TFF #49 based upon an interview with Venice Film Fest head Alberto Barbera in which he claimed that the film would be at Telluride.
Here's the teaser from YouTube:
MARSHALL FLORES TRACKING THE FILMS AND FESTS
Awards Daily's Marshall Flores has been tracking all of the news regarding fall film fests. That chart is here:
Films that have landed at at least three of the fests (*Telluride, Cannes, Venice, Toronto and New York) are:
Armageddon Time*
Broker*
Decision to Leave
The Eternal Daughter
Holy Spider*
One Fine Morning*
Saint Omer
Films on the list that "technically" could still be in play for Telluride:
Blonde (though the word continues to be it'll be at Venice only)
Close
Don't Worry Darling (noop)
Golda (with Helen Mirren...late word from Ruimy last night is it"ll be out in 2023)
She Said (though rumored to WP at NYFF...no announcement yet...secret screening?)
Here's your latest edition of MTFB's Ten Bets for the TFF #49 lineup. There is a good deal of movement after last week's announcement of Galas and Special Presentations from the Toronto International Film Festival. Also making a difference was reporting from Jordan Ruimy/World of Reel and others.
As a recap, here are the Ten Bets and Other Possibilities from last week:
1) Bardo/Inarritu
2) TAR/Fields
3) Bones and All/Guadagnino
4) Armageddon Time/Gray
5) Close/Dhont
6) Aftersun/Wells
7) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love
8) The Son/Zeller
9) She Said/M. Schrader
10) The Pale Blue Eye/Cooper
Others Possibilities: Master Gardener/P. Schrader, Women Talking/Polley, Broker/Kore-eda, Showing Up/Reichardt, Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, Holy Spider/Abbasi, White Noise/Baumbach, The Forger/Peren,Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, The U.S. and the Holocaust/Burns, The Wonder/Lelio, Blonde/Dominik, The Whale/Aronofsky, Dreamin' Wild/Pohlad, March on Rome/Cousins, Living/Hermanus
And here are the new and significantly altered Ten (Plus) Bets:
1) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love
2) Women Talking/Polley
3) Broker/Kore-eda
4) Holy Spider/Abbasi
5) The Wonder/Lelio
6) Empire of Light/Mendes
7) Good Night Oppy/White
8) Bardo/Inarritu
9) TAR/Fields
10) Bones and All/Guadagnino
11) Armageddon Time/Gray
12) The Pale Blue Eye/Cooper
13) A Compassionate Spy/James
14) Close/Dhont
15) Aftersun/Wells
Others Possibilities: Master Gardener/P. Schrader, Showing Up/Reichardt, Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, The Forger/Peren,Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, The U.S. and the Holocaust/Burns, Blonde/Dominik, Dreamin' Wild/Pohlad, March on Rome/Cousins, Argentina 1985/Mitre
The biggest blows to last week's Ten Bets came with the likelihood that She Said will World Premiere at the New York Film Festival and that The Son will will World Premiere at Toronto.
We expect TIFF to announce its Midnight Madness program tomorrow which will probably not have any effect regarding what we can deduce about TFF #49.
NO GDT AT TFF
Admittedly I've thought all summer that the chances pf Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio [laying TFF #49 were slim but that chances seem to have been laid to rest. Jordan Ruimy at World of reel reports that the film will not be finished until sometime in October at the earliest.
The New York Film Festival announced on Tuesday that Noah Baumbach's White Noise will open their fest on Sept. 30th and NYFF has labeled the film a North American premiere. Assuming that characterization is accurate and Telluride maintains its unspoken policy of features being a first time North American screening, that means White Noise is off the speculation list for TFF #49.
I had been hearing some buzz that this could be true but the scheduling of White Noise as the opener for Venice kept me thinking that there was a great chance that the film would play in Italy and then slide across the Atlantic to land in the San Juans. Looks like that's not happening.
BUT PROBABLY A PALE BLUE EYE
I've had Scott Cooper's The Pale Blue Eye on the TFF #49 watch list for a long time and now there's scuttlebutt that the Christian Bale led film, is in fact, likely screening for the first time in Telluride. World of Reel's Jordan Ruimy snuck the increased chance that this will be true into a post called "What's Left-Part Deux".
This is what Ruimy writes:
"I’m getting more Telluride intel, this one concerning Scott Cooper’s “Pale Blue Eye” which will be having its world premiere over there."
Here's the IMDb description of the film:
"At West Point Academy in 1830, the calm of an October evening is shattered by the discovery of a young cadet's body swinging from a rope just off the parade grounds. An apparent suicide is not unheard of in a harsh regimen like West Point's, but the next morning, an even greater horror comes to light. Someone has stolen into the room where the body lay and removed the heart."
The film "Follows a veteran detective who investigates the murders, helped by a detail-oriented young cadet who will later become a world famous author, Edgar Allan Poe."
Previous Cooper collaborator Christian Bale (Hostiles, Out of the Furnace) as the detective and Henry Melling (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs) as Poe join to tell this tale.
For me, it's a "most anticipated". Feeling really good that it's a TFF #49 selection.
Living starring Bill Nighy made a splash at Sundance earlier this year with a number of mentions of Nighy as a possible Oscar contender for Best Actor. Clayton Davis at Variety currently has Nighy at the #3 spot for a nomination.
The case against a Telluride play is, of course, the Sundance premiere back in January. Also, Venice head Alberto Barbera is on record saying that there will less of an overlap between his fest and Telluride and Living IS a Venice selection. But...
The case for a TFF #49 play includes the fact that it is under the wing of Sony Pictures Classics (a very tight Telluride connection). It's inclusion in the Venice out-of-competition lineup, despite having already bowed at Sundance-very unusual for Venice to schedule a non-World Premiere.
And, of late, Telluride has scheduled a couple of Sundance films that were tied to tributes. In 2016 T-ride invited Manchester-by-the-Sea, a film distributed by Amazon/Roadside Attractions -decent Telluride presence for each- and featured Casey Affleck as a tribute recipient. In 2018 TFF did the same with Adam Driver featuring both Marriage Story (from Netflix-a very good T-ride relationship) and The Report(from Amazon), which had premiered at Sundance.
So, could Bill Nighy be up for a Tribute and a screening of Living? Nighy also has a film called A Beautiful Game from Netflix that has yet to be screened anywhere and is listed by IMDb as having been in post-production since January.
So it's not outside the realm of possibility.
TEASER FOR ARGENTINA, 1985
Argentina 1985 is a Venice Golden Lion competition choice and seems like a sleeper for a spot at Telluride. That it was partially produced by Amazon Studios suggests the possibility that it could make the lineup when it is unveiled on Sept. 1st.
IMDb's description intrigues:
"A team of lawyers take on the heads of Argentina's bloody military dictatorship during the 1980s in a battle against odds and a race against time."
The first teaser for the film was released last week and here it is via YouTube:
Some of the films I predict for Telluride come from looking at the history of the fest and its relationship with directors, producers and distributors.
Some come from intell that comes my way or that I scratch up from my own digging here and there.
Some come from sources-folks who will drop me a line .
And some are just intuition. Maria Schrader's She Said has been one of those intuition picks for me all summer. I've had it bouncing in and out of the Ten Bets each week or in the list of "Other Possibilities" all summer long. It appeared in the first Ten Bets for this year at the #10 spot.
But now, Jordan Ruimy/World of Reel says nope. No She Said at Telluride and his reporting is pretty definitive.
"Another film expected to drive buzz at the NYFF is “She Said” (November 18, Universal), the true journalistic saga behind two New York Times reporters’ quest to nail sexual predator Harvey Weinstein, which launched the #MeToo movement and propelled the movie mogul into prison."
Ruimy followed that hint up and reported that he had confirmed that She Said will World Premiere at NYFF thereby indicating that the film will not me making an appearance at TFF #49.
I hate to hear that as I was really looking forward to She Said on Labor Day weekend.
WHAT WE THINK WE KNOW
Between TIFF premiere status descriptions and the Alberto Barbera Variety interview last week most of those of us who keep track of such things think that we can confidently say that these films will screen as part of The SHOW in five weeks:
Bardo/Inarritu
Bones and All/Guadagnino
Broker/Kore-eda
Empire of Light/Mendes
Good Night Oppy/White
Holy Spider/Abbasi
One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love
TAR/Fields
The Wonder/Lelio
Women Talking/Polley
Major titles that seem certain not to be at Telluride:
The Banshees of Insherin
The Fabelmans
The Good Nurse
She Said
The Son
Triangle of Sadness
Major titles still up in the air for Telluride:
Armageddon Time
Blonde
Master Gardener
The Pale Blue Eye
Showing Up
White Noise
I'll likely expand the "Ten Bets" list on Thursday to 15 Bets.
BLONDE'S NEW TRAILER AND POSTER
New poster for Andrew Dominik's Blonde
Yea, I'll admit it. My insistence on keeping Blonde (and Babylon) in the conversation for a possible Telluride play is almost certainly wishful thinking. Both films are very unlikely to be in the San Juans five weeks from now. Blonde and Babylon are and have been my most anticipated films for the year for months. Nevertheless, a guy can dream.
That said, if you missed the release from Netflix of the new trailer for Andrew Dominik's Blonde from late last week. Here it is:
NEW DOC: A COMPASSIONATE SPY MIGHT BE AT TFF #49
(Photo via The Chicago Tribune)
The Chicago Tribune reporting on the selection of Steve James (Hoop Dreams, Prefontaine) A Compassionate Spy to an Out of Competition slot at the Venice Film Festival implies the possibility/probability of a play at Telluride.
The Tribune story was picked up and re-published by the Finger Lakes Times Saturday and within that story are a couple of tantalizing statements:
"Though the filmmaker could not confirm the near-future for his latest project, many world premieres start at Venice and then go straight to a U.S. premiere at the Telluride Film Festival in Colorado a few days later."
The story also suggests that the documentary was submitted to Telluride:
"James wrapped up principal photography in April, and his producers at Participant Media suggested submitting the film for Venice (Aug. 31-Sept. 10) and Telluride (Sept. 2-5)."
A Compassionate Spy is "about the Manhattan Project physicist, Soviet spy and University of Chicago alum Theodore Hall...[the film] deals with the lives of Ted and Joan Hall — their marriage, their longtime evasion of the FBI and the information about Hall’s atomic espionage activities that came to light four years before Hall died in Cambridge, England, in 1999."
James was an Oscar nominee for Hoop Dreams in 1995 and Abacus: Small Enough to Jail in 2018.
For the past several years we've been able to get a bead on some Telluride titles based on announcements from the Toronto International Film Festival. That seems to remain true today as TIFF announced a slew of titles and likely there are several more to come. Based on the TIFF premiere status descriptions of their announced films up to today we think the following films will play at The SHOW over Labor Day: weekend:
Broker
Empire of Light
Holy Spider
One Fine Morning
The Wonder
Women Talking
Good Night Oppy
Films I thought might have a shot at TFF #49 that TIFF announced this morning that will NOT be playing Telluride based on their premiere status designation:
We've got some shuffling of the players this week following the news from Venice announcing its lineup. First here's your re-cap of last week's Ten Bets:
1) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love
2) The Son/Zeller
3) Close/Dhont
4) Armageddon Time/Gray
5) Bardo/Inarritu
6) TAR/Fields
7) Women Talking/Polley
8) Aftersun/Wells
9) The Pale Blue Eye/Cooper
10) The Master Gardener/P. Schrader
Others Possibilities: Broker/Kore-eda, Showing Up/Reichardt, Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, Holy Spider/Abbasi, The Forger/Peren, She Said/M. Schrader, Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, The U.S. and the Holocaust/Burns, The Wonder/Lelio, Blonde/Dominik
And here's this week's updated Ten Bets:
1) Bardo/Inarritu
2) TAR/Fields
3) Bones and All/Guadagnino
4) Armageddon Time/Gray
5) Close/Dhont
6) Aftersun/Wells
7) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love
8) The Son/Zeller
9) She Said/M. Schrader
10) The Pale Blue Eye/Cooper
Others Possibilities: Master Gardener/P. Schrader, Women Talking/Polley, Broker/Kore-eda, Showing Up/Reichardt, Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, Holy Spider/Abbasi, The Forger/Peren,Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, The U.S. and the Holocaust/Burns, The Wonder/Lelio, Blonde/Dominik, The Whale/Aronofsky, White Noise/Baumbach. Dreamin' Wild/Pohlad, March on Rome/Cousins
WILD TUESDAY-PART ONE
It was a wild Tuesday afternoon earlier this week as separate interviews with Venice Film Festival Artistic Director Alberto Barbera stirred the fall film fest pot by dropping some Telluride news. First the confirmations (it would seem).
In an interview with Variety's Nick Vivarelli, Barbera revealed that Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu's Bardo, Todd Field's TAR and Luca Guadagnino's Bones and All will be making the jump from Venice to Telluride (hence those films jumping to the top of this week's Ten Bets above).
Here's the quote from the Varity interview:
"One that is going [to Telluride] is”Tar,” as are the Iñárritu and Guadagnino films."
In the same paragraph, Barbera says that there will not be as large a Venice/Telluride crossover as has been the case in past years:
"My impression is that there will be fewer films going from Venice to Telluride this year — not that there aren’t any... But in past years there were more, which has resulted in Venice being a bit less “top-heavy” this year."
So Barbera isn't saying that there aren't others in addition to Bardo, TAR and Bones but fewer. I did a little digging and discovered that approximately 67 films have made the trek from Venice to Telluride over the past 10 years. Peak years were 2021 and 2018 with nine films moving form Italy to Colorado. Weak years were 2019, 2014 and 2012 with 4. The average, as you can deduce, is 6-7 films each year.
So...likely there will be an addition or two beyond the three Barbera revealed.
Prior to the Venice announcement there had been strong speculation that those films might include Baumbach's White Noise, Aronofsky's The Whale and Zeller's The Son. In my Special Post from Tuesday morning with the Venice lineup, I indicated several other films that might be in line to make the trip from Venice to T-ride:
Argentina 1985
Athena
Blonde
A Couple
No Bears
Dreamin' Wild
Master Gardener
Freedom on Fire: Ukraine's Fight for Freedom
Il Viaggio
Best bets to also move from Venice to The SHOW: White Noise, Master Gardener and The Son.
And if that wasn't enough...Barbera had an interview with Deadline.com that was posted Tuesday. Matt Neglia of Next Best Picture screen captured the electrifying news and posted it to Twitter:
Making it easier to read:
"There was only one film we couldn't see, which was the Spielberg film [The Fabelmans]. They decided to go domestic with Telluride. It was a film that all the fall festivals wanted to see but no one got to see it internationally other than Toronto."
Needless to say my Twitter feed lit up.
A few minutes later the story was re-posted with the sentence "They decided to go domestic with Telluride" edited out.
Now, I will admit that I reached out to Deadline to confirm and/or clarify the sentence. It was after that email that the edit occurred that eliminated the Telluride mention.
So, what gives? Seems like these are the possibilities:
Barbera got it wrong.
Deadline got it wrong.
Telluride screened it and decided not to invite it...thus preserving its World Premiere status for Toronto.
Telluride screened and Universal then decided not to go to T-ride after all.
Telluride does have it and TIFF's WP status is flawed.
It was pointed out to me that this could be a repeat of last year when TIFF announced Kenneth Branagh's Belfast as a World Premiere only to have it bow at Telluride first. Could that be the case with The Fabelmans?
The icing on the cake was a Jordan Ruimy/World of Reel post late on Tuesday in which he says no Fabelmans at The SHOW per a TFF source:
"I’m here to tell you, let’s please stop the speculation. A Telluride source has confirmed to me that “The Fabelmans” is not going to that festival."
TIFF is using a drip-drip-drip method of announcing World Premieres that they haven't used before. As that list grows, I will be posting so we know which films are at TIFF and won't be at TFF#49. Those announced to date are:
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