Oscar Race 2026-The Experts: The Contending / Best Picture Scorecard / NYFF Interviews for TFF Films / Visitations: Dickinson and Moura

 OSCAR RACE 2026-THE EXPERTS:THE CONTENDING

I'm beginning to close down my round-up of some of the Oscar prediction websites and their view of which films will be best picture nominated with a focus on what TFF #52 films are in play.  Today we look at Mark Johnson of The Contending.  Mark is also featured as an Oscar Expert for Gold Derby.  Here's how he is handicapping the nominations for BP.  (TFF #52 films are in Bold):

1) One Battle After Another

2) Hamnet

3) Sinners

4) Sentimental Value

5) Wicked: For Good

6) It Was Just an Accident

7) Marty Supreme

8) House of Dynamite

9) Jay Kelly

10) Bugonia

So Mark has five TFF films getting nominated which would be an all time record for number of TFF films nominated for BP in one year.

BEST PICTURE SCORECARD

Let's update our chart of the all of the BP predictions we have gathered so far.  To this point with input from Gold Derby (GD), The Hollywood Reporter (THR), Variety (V),  Awards Watch (AW),  Awards Radar (AR), Next Best Picture (NBP) and The Contending (TC), here's where TFF #52 films stand for BP predictions:

Hamnet (7): GD, THR, V, AW, AR, NBP, TC

Sentimental Value (7): GD, THR, V, AW, AR, NBP, TC

Jay Kelly (6): GD, THR, AW, AR, NBP, TC

Bugonia (5): GD, THR, V, AR, TC

It Was Just Accident (5): GD, THR, AW, NBP, TC

The Secret Agent (2): THR, V, NBP

Frankenstein (2): V, AW

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (2): AW, AR

NYFF INTERVIEWS FOR TFF FILMS

Via YouTube:

JAFAR PANAHI FOR IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Interviewed by Martin Scorsese)

JEREMY ALLEN WHITE AND SCOTT COOPER FOR SPRINGSTEEN: DELIVER ME FROM NOWHERE

VISITATIONS:

Harris Dickinson for Urchin from Time.com

Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent from Anne Thompson of Indiewire

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Checking the Oscar Experts: Next Best Picture / Trailers: Bugonia, PiIlion and If I Had Legs I'd Kick You

 CHECKING THE OSCAR EXPERTS: NEXT BEST PICTURE

With the New York Film Festival comes to a conclusion this weekend, we continue our series of check-ins with a variety of Oscar prognosticators on the Best Picture race with Matt Neglia of Next Best Picture.  Neglia just updated his predictions last Wednesday.  Here's the films he currently predicts will be Best Picture nominated (TFF #52 films are Bold):

1) One Battle After Another

2) Sinners

3) Hamnet

4) Marty Supreme

5) Sentimental Value

6) Jay Kelly

7) It Was Just an Accident

8) Song Sung Blue

9) Wicked: For Good

10) Avatar: Fire and Ash

So Matt has a record tying four TFF films predicted to be nominated for Best Picture.

Here is the link to Next Best Picture's Oscar Predictions.

BEST PICTURE SCOREBOARD

Let's update our chart of the all of the BP predictions from the accumulated predictions we have gathered so far.  To this point with input from Gold Derby (GD), The Hollywood Reporter (THR), Variety (V),  Awards Watch (AW),  Awards Radar (AR) and Next Best Picture (NBP) here's where TFF #52 films stand for BP predictions:

Hamnet (6): GD, THR, V, AW, AR, NBP

Sentimental Value (6): GD, THR, V, AW, AR, NBP

Jay Kelly (5): GD, THR, AW, AR, NBP

Bugonia (4): GD, THR, V, AR

It Was Just Accident (4): GD, THR, AW

The Secret Agent (2): THR, V, NBP

Frankenstein (2): V, AW

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (2): AW, AR

TRAILERS FROM BUGONIA, PILLION AND IF I HAD LEGS I'D KICK YOU

From YouTube:

BUGONIA

PILLION

IF I HAD LEGS I'D KICK YOU

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Checking the Oscar Experts: Awards Radar / New Trailer for Del Toro's Frankenstein / Visitations: Clooney, Sandler and Hawke and More

CHECKING THE OSCAR EXPERTS: AWARDS RADAR

As the New York Film Festival passes its halfway point, we continue our series of check-ins of a variety of Oscar prognosticators on the Best Picture race with Joey Magidson of Awards Radar .  Magidson just updated his predictions last Wednesday.  Here's what he currently will be Best Picture nominated (TFF #52 films are Bold):

1) One Battle After Another

2) Hamnet

3) Sentimental Value

4) A House of Dynamite

5) Sinners

6) Jay Kelly

7) Bugonia

8) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

9) Wicked: For Good

10) Avatar: Fire and Ash

So Magidson is currently predicting five TFF #52 films to pick up BP nominations which would be the most TFF BP noms in a single year.

Other TFF #52 films that are within striking distance per Magidson:

11) It Was Just an Accident

18) Frankenstein

19) Blue Moon

BEST PICTURE SCOREBOARD

To this point with input from Gold Derby (GD), The Hollywood Reporter (THR), Variety (V),  Awards Watch (AW) and Awards Radar (AR) here's where TFF #52 films stand for BP predictions.

Hamnet (5): GD, THR, V, AW, AR

Sentimental Value (5): GD, THR, V, AW, AR

Jay Kelly (4): GD, THR, AW, AR

Bugonia (4): GD, THR, V, AR

It Was Just Accident (3): GD, THR, AW

The Secret Agent (2): THR, V

Frankenstein (2): V, AW

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (2): AW, AR

NEW TRAILER FOR DEL TORO'S FRANKENSTEIN

From YouTube:

VISITATIONS

Jay Kelly Q+A from the New York Film Festival with Clooney, Sandler, Dern, Baumbach and More

Ethan Hawke and Richard Linklater for Blue Moon from The Making Of

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas for Sentimental Value from Pop Culture Confidential

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Checking with Oscar Experts: Awards Watch/ Scoreboard for Best Picture / Clip: Born to Run / Visitations: Behind the Scenes: Springsteen and Paul Mescal and The History of Sound / New Posters: Jay Kelly, Springsteen, Frankenstein and Pillion

CHECKING WITH OSCAR EXPERTS: AWARDS WATCH

We continue today with our rundown of Oscar gurus and their early line Best Picture nominee predictions as we move through the New York Film Festival which will end the wave of the four major fall film fests: Venice, Telluride, Toronto and NYFF.

Today's view comes from Erik Anderson who runs Awards Watch.  Here are his current predictions for Best Picture.  TFF #52 films are Bold.

1) One Battle After Another

2) Hamnet

3) Sinners

4) Sentimental Value

5) Jay Kelly

6) Marty Supreme

7) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

8) It Was Just an Accident

9) Frankenstein

10) Wicked: For Good

Other TFF #52 in the 11-20 spots:

13) The Secret agent

15) Bugonia

This set of predictions would put six TFF #52 titles in the list of ten nominees which would be a TFF record.

The complete list from Awards Watch as well as Best Direction predictions can be found here.

SCOREBOARD FOR BEST PICTURE 

To this point with input from Gold Derby (GD), The Hollywood Reporter (THR), Variety (V) and Awards Watch (AW) here's where TFF #52 films stand for BP predictions.

Hamnet (4): GD, THR, V, AW

Sentimental Value (4): GD, THR, V, AW

Jay Kelly (3): GD, THR, AW

Bugonia (3): GD, THR, V

It Was Just Accident (3): GD, THR, AW

The Secret Agent (2): THR, V

Frankenstein (2): V, AW

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (1): AW

CLIP: BORN TO RUN FROM SPRINGSTEEN: DELIVER ME FROM NOWHERE

From 20th Century Studios and YouTube, a clip of Born to Run:

VISITATIONS

BEHIND THE SCENES OF SPRINGSTEEN: DELIVER ME FROM NOWHERE

From YouTube:

PAUL MESCAL FOR THE HISTORY OF SOUND FROM INDIEWIRE:

Paul Mescal on The History of Sound.

NEW POSTERS

JAY KELLY:

SPRINGSTEEN: DELIVER ME FROM NOWHERE:

FRANKENSTEIN:

PILLION:

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