Oscar's Predicted Winners: The Big Eight / Another List of the Most Anticipated / Berlin Films Revealed

OSCAR'S PREDICTED WINNERS: THE BIG EIGHT

We're down to a week and a half to get to Oscar night, Feb. 9th.  With it bearing down, here's where I have predicted winners in the "Big Eight" categories.  As usual, I have indicated TFF #46 films in Bold.

BEST FILM

1) 1917
2) Parasite
3) Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood
4) The Irishman
5) Jojo Rabbit
6) Joker
7) Marriage Story
8) Little Women
9) Ford v Ferrari

Notes:  I could still change this prediction easily when I get to FINAL PREDICTIONS on Sunday, Feb. 9th.  Despite 1917's PGA and DGA wins and Parasite's SAG Ensemble win, I still think this is a close race between those two films and I also think there's still a reasonable set of circumstances by which Once Upon a Time wins Best Picture.  Parasite remains TFF #46's best chance to have hosted the Best Picture winner.

BEST DIRECTOR

1) Sam Mendes/1917
2) Bong Joon-ho/Parasite
3) Quentin Tarantino/Once Upon a Time...
4) Martin Scorsese/The Irishman
5) Todd Phillips/Joker

Notes: It's a two horse race between Mendes and Bong.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Renee Zellweger/Judy
2) Scarlett Johansson/Marriage Story
3) Charlize Theron/Bombshell
4) Cynthia Erivo/Harriet
5) Saoirse Ronan/Little Women

Notes: It's Zellweger's to lose and she's not going to lose.

BEST ACTOR

1) Joaquin Phoenix/Joker
2) Adam Driver/Marriage Story
3) Antonio Banderas/Pain and Glory
4) Jonathan Pryce/The Two Popes
5) Leonardo DiCaprio/Once Upon a Time...

Notes: Phoenix is a lock.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Laura Dern/Marriage Story
2) Scarlett Johansson/Jojo Rabbit
3) Margot Robbie/Bombshell
4) Florence Pugh/Little Women
5) Kathy Bates/Richard Jewell

Notes: Get used to saying: "Oscar winner Laura Dern".

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Brad Pitt/Once Upon a Time...
2) Joe Pesci/The Irishman
3) Tom Hanks/A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
4) Al Pacino/The Irishman
5) Anthony Hopkins/The Two Popes

Notes: Pitt might the most locked in the very locked acting categories.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Parasite
2) Once Upon a Time...
3) Marriage Story
4) 1917
5) Knives Out

Notes:  As much as there is no suspense in the acting categories...there is a ton of uncertainty here. Parasite and OUATIH are very, very tight and Marriage Story wouldn't be a huge surprise.  This will be one of those categories that separate Oscar pools...not that anyone bets on this kind of thing.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Little Women
2) Jojo Rabbit
3) The Irishman
4) Joker
5) The Two Popes

Notes: Just like Original Screenplay...this category is a barn burner as well.  Lots of thought that this is where The Academy awards Greta Gerwig in part because of her missing out on a directing nomination.  Jojo and The Irishman are right there, though.

Overall 14 of the 23 TFF #46 films' nominations are in these eight categories.



ANOTHER LIST OF THE MOST ANTICIPATED

This list of "most anticipated films for 2020 comes from Criterion.  THe films listed there are grouped in a variety of ways.  Some are grouped by distributor, some by country of origin and there are are methods.  Among the films listed, these feel most like TFF #47 options:

The Card Counter/Paul Schrader
Dune/Denis Villenueve
Untitled Velvet Underground Project/Todd Haynes
On the Rocks/Sophia Coppola
Mank/David Fincher
I'm Thinking of Ending Things/Charlie Kaufman
Blonde/Andrew Dominik
MacBeth/Joel Coen
Nomadland/Chloe Zhao
Ammonite/Frances Lee
Bergman Island/Mia Hansen Love
Charlatan/Agnieszka Holland

Note: Wes Anderson's The French Dispatch, which I have mentioned on a couple of these "Most Anticipated" lists has slipped off of them as it was announced yesterday that the film will be released on July 24th.

The complete list from Criterion is linked here.


BERLIN'S FILMS REVEALED

The Berlin International Film Festival has announced the bulk of its lineup for the 2020 edition.  The Berlin Fest is of note as we often see one or two titles from that fest announced as part of the Telluride lineup each Labor Day.

Among the films listed by Indiewire that will be playing in Germany, these jump out as TFF #47 potentials:

Irradiated/Rithy Panh
The Roads Not Taken/Sally Potter
There Is No Evil/Mohammad Rasoulof
The Salt of Tears/Philippe Garrel
Siberia/Abel Ferrara
Undine/Christian Petzold


Check out the complete Berlin lineup as reported by Indiewire here.


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Saturday Night was Precursor Night / The Last Big Domino... / More Anticipation

SATURDAY NIGHT WAS PRECURSOR NIGHT

I wrote on Thursday that we'd have a busy Saturday night with guild awards being announced from Directors, Cinematographers, the Cinema Audio Society, the USC Scripter Award for adapted screenplay and the Annie Awards.  TFF #46 was represented in the glut of news with Ford v Ferrari's win from the film's design from the Cinema Audio Society.

Other winners:

DGA: Sam Mendes/1917
USC Scripter: Greta Gerwig/Little Women
ASC (cinematography): Roger Deakins/1917
Annie: Klaus

The DGA win for Mendes has shifted the sentiment to 1917 to be the favorite for Mendes to win the Best Director Oscar and the film to win Best Picture.  A number of number pros pointed out, however, that three of the last four years the DGA winner won the directing Oscar but the film did not win Best Picture:

2015: Alejandro Inarritu wins DGA and Oscar for The Revenant. Best Pic: Spotlight
2016: Damian Chazelle wins DGA and Oscar for La La Land.  Best Pic: Moonlight
2017: Guillermo Del Toro wins DGA and Oscar and Shape of Water wins Best Pic.
2018: Alfonso Cuaron wins DGA and Oscar for Roma.  Green Book wins Best Pic.

So the recent past suggests that 1917 winning Best Picture isn't a lock.  Lots of folks are saying that perhaps Parasite pulls off the surprise a la Moonlight.  My guess is that, should anything besides 1917 wins that it will actually be Tarantino's Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood.

The other results from Saturday's awards suggest good Oscar news for Gerwig and Deakins.  The Annie award for Netflix's Klaus may be less predictive.  I'm still expecting Toy Story 4 to take the Oscar statue in two weeks.


THE LAST BIG DOMINO...

The last big precursor is the Writers Guild Awards that will announced Saturday.  Nominees are:

WGA Adapted Screenplay nominees:

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women

The Oscar nominees differ with the inclusion of The Two Popes and exclusion of A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood.

WGA Original Screenplay nominees:

1917
Booksmart
Knives Out
Marriage Story
Parasite

The Oscar nominees differ with Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood in and Booksmart out.


MORE ANTICIPATION

I'm continuing to look at the various lists of "most anticipated" films for this and that source as I'm at the very start of trying to get a bead on which films might be in line for consideration of inclusion at TFF #47.

Today I'm looking at the list of 68 films from Vulture.  Those films are listed by announced release date so it's easy to look at their list beginning with the films listed for September or later as well as films that are still listed with release dates to be announced.

That said, here's what Vulture is looking forward to that feels like a TFF #47 possible:

I'm Thinking of Ending Things (Charlie Kaufman)
Mank (David Fincher)
Dune (Denis Villenueve)
News of the World (Paul Greengrass)
Bergman Island (Mia Hansen Love)
The French Dispatch (Wes Anderson)
Nomadland (Chloe Zhao)
On the Rocks (Sophia Coppola)

The complete Vulture article is linked here.


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Latest from The Gurus / DGA (and More) on Saturday / Improbable for TFF #47

LATEST FROM THE GURUS

The latest Gurus of Gold went up at Movie City News today .  You can took a good long look at the first real line from the Gurus regarding who/what we collectively think will win the Academy Award in the "Big Eight" categories in a couple of weeks.

The Latest Gurus is linked here.

My personal predictions looks as follows for these eight categories with TFF #46 films in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) Once Upon A Time...in Hollywood

2) 1917 

3) Parasite 

4) The Irishman 

5) Joker 

6) Jojo Rabbit 

7) Marriage Story 

8) Little Women  

9) Ford v Ferrari 

BEST DIRECTOR

1) Sam Mendes/1917 

2) Bong Joon-ho/Parasite

3) Quentin Tarantino/Once Upon A Time ... 

4) Martin Scorsese/The Irishman 

5) Todd Phillips/Joker 

BEST ACTRESS

1) Renee Zellweger/Judy 

2) Scarlett Johansson/Marriage Story

3) Charlize Theron/Bombshell

4) Cynthia Erivo/Harriet

5) Saoirse Ronan/Little Women

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Laura Dern/Marriage Story

2) Scarlett Johansson/Jojo Rabbit

3) Kathy Bates/Richard Jewell

4) Margot Robbie/Bombshell

5) Florence Pugh/Little Women

BEST ACTOR

1) Joaquin Phoenix/Joker

2) Adam Driver/Marriage Story

3) Antonio Banderas/Pain and Glory

4) Leonardo DiCaprio/Once Upon a Time...

5) Jonathan Pryce/The Two Popes

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Brad Pitt/Once Upon a Time...

2) Joe Pesci/The Irishman

3) Al Pacino/The Irishman

4) Tom Hanks/A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

5) Anthony Hopkins/The Two Popes

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Once Upon A Time ... 

2) Parasite 

3) Marriage Story 

4) Knives Out 

5) 1917 

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Little Women 

2) The Irishman

3) Jojo Rabbit 

4) The Two Popes 

5) Joker

DGA (AND MORE) ON SATURDAY

The next big Guild domino to fall prior to the Oscars is the Directors Guild of America which will announce its winners on Saturday.  Also announcing Saturday will be the USC Scripter Award for Adapted Screenplays as well as the American Society of Cinematographers and the Cinema Audio Society.

It'll be a big day of film awards news.

The DGA is likely a three way battle between Sam Mendes/1917, Bong Joon-ho/Parasite and Quentin Tarantino/Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood.

The ASC is likely going to award Roger Deakins for 1917.

The CAS is probably going to give their award for sound mixing to Ford v Ferrari especially since 1917 was not nominated by the organization.

The USC Scripter Award could land in the hands of Greta Gerwig for Little Women or perhaps Steve Zaillian for The Irishman.

We'll know on Saturday night and then assess if any of the awards were a surprise as well if any of the wins give us any more inkling about Oscar races.

IMPROBABLE FOR 47

As most MTFB know, TFF regularly schedules new films only if they will be appearing in North America for the first time.  There are exceptions here and there but they are rare. Recently Kenneth Lonergan's Manchester by the Sea and Scott Z. Burns' The Report played Sundance first and then TFF. 

So the films that are announced for the Sundance Film Fest are almost always relegated to "ain't gonna play Telluride" status.

So, with that notion in mind, here's a quick scan of some films that are very likely not going to be TFF #47 bound as they have been announced for Sundance:

Never, Rarely, Sometimes, Always
Zola
Downhill
Falling
Kajillionaire
The Glorias
The Last Thing He Wanted
Wendy
Worth

The complete Sundance program is here should want to explore.



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Catching Up / Indiewire's 25 Most Anticipated /PGA Awards 1917 / SAG Award Winners Announced Last Night / ACE Award Surprise-Parasite

CATCHING UP

In the blur that has been the last couple of weeks of Oscar nomination announcement buildup and then the subsequent parsing...some notes and stories that I would have normally included in this space got left behind...so...time to catch up:

Mark Cousins article about the death of the late great Buck Henry is here from Indiewire.

Kris Tapley talks with The Two Popes Oscar nominated scribe Anthony McCarten on The Call Sheet Podcast.

Indiewire reports HBO and Bong Joon-ho are developing Parasite as a project for the premium channel.

The Film Stage on Pedro Almodovar's Pain and Glory.

Damien Chazelle's new Netflix joint will be featured at the Berlin Film Festival.



INDIEWIRE'S 25 MOST ANTICIPATED

Indiewire writers Eric Kohn, David Ehrlich and Kate Erbland published their collective list of 25 films that they have high hopes for on Jan. 11th.  I took a look at their list to continue to try to get an early bead on what might be in the TFF #47 conversation as we move toward spring, Cannes and ultimately the summer season when Telluride Film Fest energy grows and grows.

Consequently, here are the films from their list that seem TFF-y or that are just on my own personal wish list (presented alphabetical as is done in the original post):

Ana de Armas who will star in Blonde (photo via Indiewire)

BLONDE- Andrew Dominik's thinly veiled examination of a Marilyn Monroe-like character played by the currently red hot Ana De Armas (Knives Out).  From Netflix.  Release date: TBD.

DUNE- From director Denis Villenueve.  Villenueve tackles the Frank Herbert sci-fi classic and will certainly have a different approach than we can find in David Lynch's 1984 version.  Villenueve's fairly consistent presence at Telluride makes this a possibility ...or maybe more a wish on my behalf.  From Warner Bros.Release-Dec. 18th.

THE FRENCH DISPATCH- Wes Anderson is back.  A film reportedly about journalism and journalists with Anderson's usual array of regular stars (Willem Dafoe, Bill Murray, Tilda Swinton, Saoirse Ronan) and a batch of new talent (Timothee Chalamet, Elizabeth Moss).  I expect that some version of the film will bow at Cannes, which as TFF followers know, doesn't preclude at Telluride play.  From Searchlight.  Release: TBD.

I'M THINKING OF ENDING THINGS- Directed by Charlie Kaufman.  Could Kaufman return to Telluride after screening Anomalisa there in 2015?  Could be.  Jesse Plemons and Jesse Buckley star.  From Netflix.  Release: TBD.

MANK- Director David Fincher's first feature film gig since 2014's Gone Girl finds him directing a script written by his father about the genesis of the film classic Citizen Kane.  Gary Oldman stars as Herman Mankiewicz, the screen writer of the film many regard still as the greatest film ever made.  At this point, it's the film I most ardently hope makes it to Southwest Colorado over Labor Day weekend.  From Netflix.  Release TBD.

Chloe Zhao (photo via Indiewire)

NOMADLAND- Chloe Zhao's follow up to The Rider.  I had this on my 2019 watch lists and that, obviously didn't happen.  Now I'm expecting a Cannes debut and a possible awards friendly release date.  Frances McDormand stars.  From Searchlight.  Release TBD.

ON THE ROCKS- Sofia Coppola re-teams with her Lost in Translation star Bill Murray.  Rashida Jones is cast as well in this father/daughter film.  Coppola screened Lost in Translation at TFF in 2003.  Could this mark a return for her?  From Apple.  Release TBD.

Check out the rest of the Indiewire 25 here.


PGA AWARDS 1917

The Producers Guild of America announced their winners for films and television for 2019 on Saturday night. 

Sam Mendes 1917 took the film top prize which might mean that the World War I set film that is shot to appear to be essentially one take is your front runner for the Best Picture Oscar.  Indiewire reports that the PGA winner is a 72% successful indicator of the eventual BP Oscar winner.

1917 beat out three TFF films that were also in the running: Parasite, Marriage Story and Ford v Ferrari.

Toy Story 4 was named the PGA winner for Animated Feature while the producers named Apollo 11 the Best Documentary of the year.

The complete PGA story is linked here.


SAG AWARD WINNERS ANNOUNCED LAST NIGHT

Telluride 2019 had a good night at the SAG Awards last night with TFF #46 film actors scooping up two prizes and a TFF film also won Best Ensemble.  Here's the rundown of winners for film:

Best Supporting Actress: Laura Dern/Marriage Story
Best Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt/Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Best ACtress: Renee Zellweger/Judy
Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix/Joker
Best Ensemble: Parasite

The Parasite win was something of a surprise and positions it along with PGA winner 1917 as the two most likely front runners at this point for the Best Picture Oscar.  Though, I wouldn't rule out Once Upon a Time...just yet.

Now we wait to see what the DGA and WGA do.



ACE AWARD SURPRISE-PARASITE

The American Cinema Editors group surprised the film world on Friday awarding Bong Joon-ho's Parasite as the best edited film drama of the year.  Parasite beat Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood, Ford v Ferrari, Marriage Story and Joker.

Jojo Rabbit won the Eddy for Film-Comedy.  Toy Story 4 won for Animated Feature and Apollo 11 won for editing for a Feature Documentary.

The complete list of nominees and winners is linked here from Awards Watch.



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First Post-Oscar Nominations Gurus of Gold / Re-visiting My Oscar Analysis / Peering Into The Film Stage's Crystal Ball

FIRST POST-OSCAR NOMINATIONS GURUS OF GOLD

Over at Movie City News they've already corralled a majority of us Gurus to handicap the Oscar race for the winners in the 21 feature categories.  If the Gurus are right , this is the lowdown for what will win on Feb. 9th:

Picture: Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood

Director: Sam Mendes/1917. 

Actress: Renee Zellweger/Judy

Actor: Joaquin Phoenix/Joker

Supporting Actress: Laura Dern/Marriage Story

Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt/Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood

Original Screenplay: Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood

Adapted Screenplay: Little Women (I have Jojo Rabbit winning)

Doc: American Factory

Animated Feature: Toy Story 4

International Film: Parasite

Film Editing: The Irishman

Production Design: Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood

Cinematography: 1917

Costumes: Little Women (I Have Once Upon a Time winning)

Makeup/Hair: Bombshell

Visual Effects: The Lion King

Score: Joker

Song: I'm Gonna Love Me Again/Rocketman (I have Frozen II winning...for the moment)

Sound Editing: 1917 (I have Ford winning)

Sound Mixing: 1917 (I have Ford winning)

Categories that are tight: Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Costume,Visual Effects, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing.

If the first pass is correct: Hollywood wins four, 1917 wins four, Little Women wins two, Joker wins two, Judy, The Irishman, Marriage Story, Bombshell, The Lion King, Rocketman, American Factory, Parasite,  and Toy Story 4 all win a single Oscar.

Check out the complete Gurus of Gold by clicking here and see the races that we think are close.

RE-VISITING MY OSCAR ANALYSIS

If you missed my take on Monday's Oscar nominations announcement, I've re-posted it here:

TFF #46 films snag 23 Oscar nominations:

Parasite-6- Picture, Director, International Film, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Production Design.
Marriage Story-6- Picture, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Original Score
Ford v Ferrari-4- Picture, Film Editing, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing
Two Popes-3- Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay
Pain and Glory-2- International Film, Actor
Judy-2- Actress, Makeup/Hair


Nominations were led by Joker with 11.

The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and 1917 had 10 each.

Marriage Story, Little Women, Jojo Rabbit and Parasite each had six nominations.

My predictions 100 out of 124 for a success rate of 80.6%.  A little bit above my usual average.  My best categories (getting all of them correctly): Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Original Screenplay, Original Score, Visual Effects, Sound Editing,).  My worst category: Costumes where I was an abysmal 2 of 5.

Categories where I had a nominee in the sixth spot: Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, International Film, Animated Feature, Film Editing, Cinematography, Makeup/Hair, Production Design, Live Action Short.

PEERING INTO THE FILM STAGE'S CRYSTAL BALL

As it does every year around this time, The Film Stage put out their list of 100 films that they say are their collective "Most Anticipated" for 2020.  That post went up on Jan. 9th.

As I do each year, I have parsed the list for films that seem to me to be TFF #47 possibilities. Here they are and where they were listed by The Film Stage on their list:

99) Those Who Wish Me Dead. Dir. Taylor Sheridan.

98) The Trail of the Chicago 7. Dir. Aaron Sorkin

92) Fireball. Dir. Werner Herzog

85) Summer '85. Dir. Francois Ozon

81) Good Morning Midnight. Dir. George Clooney

77) Stillwater. Dir. Tom McCarthy

69) One Second and Rock Solid. Dir. Zhang Yimou

65) News of the World. Dir. Paul Greengrass

64) Nightmare Alley. Dir. Guillermo Del Toro

57) The Winter Tiger. Dir. Ramin Bahrani

54) Untitled Velvet Underground Doc. Dir. Todd Haynes

53) Rebecca. Dir. Ben Wheatley

48) Mainstream. Dir. Gia Coppola

30) Dune. Dir. Denis Villeneuve

22) MacBeth. Dir. Joel Coen

16) Nomadland. Dir. Chloe Zhao

15) The French Dispatch. Dir. Wes Anderson

11) I'm Thinking of Ending Things. Dir. Charlie Kaufman

10) On the Rocks. Dir. Sophia Coppola

8) Mank. Dir. David Fincher

6) Bergman Island. Dir. Mia Hansen Love

The complete Film Stage list is linked here

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92ND OSCAR NOMINATIONS-AND SOME ANALYSIS

Oscar Nominations...with Telluride films in Bold


Best Picture
1917 (Universal)
Ford v Ferrari (Fox)
The Irishman (Netflix)
Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight)
Joker (Warner Bros.)
Little Women (Sony)
Marriage Story (Netflix)
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony)
Parasite (Neon)

Actor in a Leading Role
Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Adam Driver (Marriage Story)
Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)

Actress in a Leading Role
Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)
Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
Saoirse Ronan (Little Women)
Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
Renée Zellweger (Judy)

Actress in a Supporting Role
Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell)
Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)
Florence Pugh (Little Women)
Margot Robbie (Bombshell)

Actor in a Supporting Role
Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)
Al Pacino (The Irishman)
Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

Directing
Bong Joon Ho (Parasite)
Sam Mendes (1917)
Todd Phillips (Joker)
Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)
Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

Adapted Screenplay
The Irishman (Steven Zaillian)
Jojo Rabbit (Taika Waititi)
Joker (Todd Phillips & Scott Silver)
Little Women (Greta Gerwig)
The Two Popes (Anthony McCarten)

Original Screenplay
1917 (Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns)
Knives Out (Rian Johnson)
Marriage Story (Noah Baumbach)
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Quentin Tarantino)
Parasite (Bong Joon Ho and Jin Won Han)

International Feature Film
Corpus Christi (Poland)
Honeyland (North Macedonia)
Les Miserables (France)
Pain and Glory (Spain)
Parasite (South Korea)

Production Design
1917
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

Film Editing
Ford v Ferrari (Andrew Buckland and Michael McCusker)
The Irishman (Thelma Schoonmaker)
Jojo Rabbit (Tom Eagles)
Joker (Jeff Groth)
Parasite (Jinmo Yang)

Cinematography
1917 (Roger Deakins)
The Irishman (Rodrigo Prieto)
Joker (Lawrence Sher)
The Lighthouse (Jarin Blaschke)
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Robert Richardson)

Visual Effects
1917
Avengers: Endgame
The Irishman
The Lion King
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Costume Design
Jojo Rabbit
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
The Irishman
Joker
Little Women

Sound Mixing
1917
Ad Astra
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Sound Editing
1917
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Original Score
1917 (Thomas Newman)
Joker (Hildur Guðnadóttir)
Little Women (Alexandre Desplat)
Marriage Story (Randy Newman)
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Documentary Feature
American Factory (Netflix)
The Cave (National Geographic)
The Edge of Democracy (Netflix)
For Sama (PBS)
Honeyland (Neon)

Documentary Short Subject
In the Absence
Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)
Life Overtakes Me
St. Louis Superman
Walk Run Cha-Cha

Makeup and Hairstyling
1917
Bombshell
Joker
Judy
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

Animated Feature Film
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (Dreamworks)
I Lost My Body (Netflix)
Klaus (Netflix)
Missing Link (United Artists Releasing)
Toy Story 4 (Pixar)

Animated Short Film
Dcera (Daughter)
Hair Love
Kitbull
Memorable
Sister

Live-Action Short Film
Brotherhood
Nefta Football Club
The Neighbors’ Window
Saria
A Sister

Original Song
"I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away" (Toy Story 4) — Randy Newman
"(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again" (Rocketman) — Elton John & Bernie Taupin
"I'm Standing With You" (Breakthrough) — Diane Warren
"Into the Unknown" (Frozen 2) — Robert Lopez and Kristen Anderson-Lopez
"Stand Up" (Harriet) — Joshuah Brian Campbell and Cynthia Erivo


TFF #46 films snag 23 Oscar nominations:

Parasite-6- Picture, Director, International Film, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Production Design.
Marriage Story-6- Picture, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Original Score
Ford v Ferrari-4- Picture, Film Editing, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing
Two Popes-3- Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay
Pain and Glory-2- International Film, Actor
Judy-2- Actress, Makeup/Hair


Nominations were led by Joker with 11.

The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and 1917 had 10 each.

Marriage Story, Little Women, Jojo Rabbit and Parasite each had six nominations.

My predictions 100 out of 124 for a success rate of 80.6%.  A little bit above my usual average.  My best categories (getting all of them correctly): Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Original Screenplay, Original Score, Visual Effects, Sound Editing,).  My worst category: Costumes where I was an abysmal 2 of 5.

Categories where I had a nominee in the sixth spot: Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, International Film, Animated Feature, Film Editing, Cinematography, Makeup/Hair, Production Design, Live Action Short.

SUNDAY SPECIAL: THE FINAL OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS / Final Oscar Predix from the Experts

FINAL OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS

First a note or two…
If past history holds, these nomination predictions will be between 75%-80% accurate.  Additionally, of that 20%-25% missed, around 20% of those misses will pop up as the #6 possibility in categories that have five nominations.  Then again, as crazy as this Oscar season has been so far… all bets are off.

As always, TFF #46 films are indicated in Bold.

With that, here are the final MTFB Oscar nomination predictions for the 92nd Academy Awards:

BEST PICTURE

1) Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
2) Parasite
3) 1917
4) The Irishman
5) Jojo Rabbit
6) Joker
7) Marriage Story
8) Ford v Ferrari 
9) Little Women
10) Knives Out

Other possibles: The Farewell, Rocketman, Uncut Gems
Notes: The top seven films feel solid.  I'm guessing nine films get nominated this year.  Here’s a thing, though…It feels like there’s a Little Women movement going on…that could get Gerwig, Ronan and Pugh in as well as the film for Best Pic.


BEST DIRECTOR

1) Quentin Tarantino/Once Upon a Time
2) Bong Joon-ho/Parasite 
3) Martin Scorsese/The Irishman
4) Sam Mendes/1917
5) Taika Waititi/Jojo Rabbit
6) Todd Phillips/Joker

Other possibles: Greta Gerwig/Little Women, Noah Baumbach/Marriage Story
Locks: Tarantino, Bong, Scorsese, Mendes


BEST ACTRESS

1) Renee Zellweger/Judy 
2) Scarlett Johansson/Marriage Story 
3) Charlize Theron/Bombshell
4) Cynthia Erivo/Harriet
5) Lupita Nyong'o/Us
6) Saoirse Ronan/Little Women

Other possibles: Awkwafina/The Farewell, Alfre Woodard/Clemency
Locks: Zellweger, Johansson, Theron. 


BEST ACTOR

1) Joaquin Phoenix/Joker
2) Adam Driver/Marriage Story
3) Leonardo DiCaprio/Once Upon a Time...
4) Taron Egerton/Rocketman
5) Antonio Banderas/Pain and Glory
6) Christian Bale/Ford v Ferrari 

Other possibles: Robert DeNiro/The Irishman, Jonathan Pryce/The Two Popes, Eddie Murphy/Dolemite Is My Name, Adam Sandler/Uncut Gems
Locks: Driver, Phoenix, DiCaprio


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Laura Dern/Marriage Story 
2) Jennifer Lopez/Hustlers
3) Margot Robbie/Bombshell
4) Scarlett Johansson/Jojo Rabbit
5) Florence Pugh/Little Women
6) Nicole Kidman/Bombshell

Other possibles: Zhao Shuzhen/The Farewell, Annette Bening/The Report
Locks: Dern, Lopez. Robbie


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Brad Pitt/Once Upon a Time...
2) Joe Pesci/The Irishman
3) Al Pacino/The Irishman
4) Tom Hanks/A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
5) Song Kang-ho/Parasite
6) Anthony Hopkins/The Two Popes

Other possibles: Jamie Foxx/Just Mercy, Willem Dafoe/The Lighthouse, Taika Waititi/Jojo Rabbit
Locks: Pitt, Pesci, Pacino.  Near Lock: Hanks


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) The Irishman
2) Jojo Rabbit
3) The Two Popes 
4) Little Women
5) Joker
6) A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Other possibles: Just Mercy, Hustlers, Dark Waters
Locks: Irishman, Jojo, Two Popes.  Near Locks: Little Women, Joker


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Once Upon a Time…
2) Marriage Story
3) Parasite
4) Knives Out
5) 1917
6) The Farewell

Other possibles: Booksmart, Uncut Gems, Pain and Glory
Locks: Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time..., Parasite. 

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) Parasite 
2) Pain and Glory 
3) Les Miserables
4) Beanpole 
5) Atlantics
6) Corpus Christi

Other possibles: Honeyland, Truth and Justice, Those Who Remained, The Painted Bird


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Toy Story 4
2) Frozen II
3) I Lost My Body
4) The Missing Link
5) How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
6) Klaus

Other possibles: Abominable, The Lion King, Funan

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) American Factory
2) Apollo 11
3) For Sama
4) One Child Nation
5) Honeyland
6) Biggest Little Farm

Other possibles: Midnight Family, Maiden, The Cave, Advocate

FILM EDITING

1) The Irishman
2) Ford v Ferrari
3) Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
4) Joker
5) Parasite 
6) Jojo Rabbit

Other possibles: Marriage Story, 1917, Uncut Gems.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) 1917
2) Once Upon a Time...
3) The Irishman
4) Joker
5) Ford v Ferrari
6) The Lighthouse

Other possibles: Portrait of a Lady on Fire, Little Women, A Hidden Life, Parasite, Jojo Rabbit

ORIGINAL SCORE

1) 1917
2) Joker
3) Little Women
4) Marriage Story 
5) Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
6) Ford v Ferrari 

Other possibles: Motherless Brooklyn, Jojo Rabbit

ORIGINAL SONG

1) Into the Unknown/Frozen II
2) I'm Gonna Love Me Again/Rocketman
3) Stand Up/Harriet
4) Glasgow/Wild Rose
5) I'm Standing with You/Breakthrough
6) Spirit/The Lion King

Other possibles: I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away/Toy Story 4, Speechless/Aladdin, Daily Battles/Motherless Brooklyn, Letter to My Godfather/Black Godfather

COSTUMES

1) Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood (1)
2) Little Women (2)
3) Dolemite Is My Name (3)
4) Downton Abbey (4)
5) Rocketman (5)
6) 1917 (6)

Other possibles:Harriet, The Irishman, Judy, Jojo Rabbit

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Bombshell (1)
2) Judy (2)
3) Rocketman (3)
4) Joker (4)
5) Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood (5)
6) 1917 (6)

Other possibles: Dolemite Is My Name, Downton Abbey, Little Women, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood (1)
2) 1917 (2)
3) The Irishman (3)
4) Parasite (4)
5) Joker (5)
6) Jojo Rabbit (6)

Other possibles: Little Women, The Two Popes, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, Ad Astra

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) The Lion King
2) The Irishman
3) Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
4) Avengers: Endgame
5) 1917
6) Alita: Battle Angel

Other possible: Gemini Man

SOUND EDITING

1) Ford v Ferrari
2) 1917
3) Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
4) Joker
5) Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
6) Avengers: Endgame

Other possibles: Rocketman, The Irishman, Toy Story 4

SOUND MIXING

1) Ford v Ferrari
2) 1917
3) Once Upon a Time...
4) Joker
5) Rocketman
6) Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Other possibles: The Irishman, Avengers: Endgame, Toy Story 4

ANIMATED SHORTS

1) Kitbull
2) Hair Love
3) The Physics of Sorrow
4) Dcera (Daughter)
5) He Can't Live Without Cosmos
6) Mind My Mind

Others: Hors Piste, Memorable, Sister, Uncle Thomas: Counting the Days

DOCUMENTARY SHORTS

1) Learning to Skateboard in a War Zone (If You're a Girl)
2) Fire in Paradise
3) St. Louis Superman
4) Walk Run Cha-Cha
5) In the Absence
6) After Maria

Others: Ghosts of Sugarland, Life Overtakes Me, he Nightcrawlers, Stay Close

LIVE ACTION SHORTS

1) Little Hands
2) Brotherhood
3) The Neighbors Window
4) Refugee
5) A Sister
6) Nefta Football Club

Others: The Christmas Gift, Miller and Son, Saria, Sometimes I Think About Dying

NOTES:

According to my picks the total nomination leader will be Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood with 12 followed by:

1917 and Joker-10
The Irishman-9
Parasite-7
Marriage Story and Little Women- 6
Ford v Ferrari-5

Telluride films will earn 25 nominations in total.  Another four could be possible.  In addition to Parasite, Marriage Story and Ford v Ferrari...

Judy-2
Pain and Glory- 2
The Two Popes- 1
Beanpole- 1
Fire in Paradise-1






FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS FROM THE EXPERTS:

Awards Daily

The Hollywood Reporter

Awards Watch Part 1 

Awards Watch Part 2

Hollywood News

Indiewire

Vanity Fair

Entertainment Weekly

Next Best Picture


FINAL NOTE: I'll have all the nominees up sometime tomorrow morning with the breakdown of how Telluride films actually did and maybe a comment or two along the way.  Tomorrow's post will be later in that day than the normal 8:00am EST/6:00am PST.  Hoping to have it up by 10:00am Eastern.

Long Live Buck Henry 1930-2020 / SPECIAL NOTE: FINAL OSCAR PREDIX ON SUNDAY!!! / Guilds: Writers, Directors, Producers and BAFTA / Oscar Predictions Updated: Costumes. Makeup and Hair, and Production Design / MTFB in Other Places / First Cow Trailer

LONG LIVE BUCK HENRY 1930-2020

Got the news late last night that the legendary Buck Henry had died of a heart attack at the age of 89.  Henry had an extensive relationship with the Telluride Film Festival going all the way back to appearing as a guest of the fest at TFF #2 in 1975 according to the best info I can come up with.  Henry also Guest Directed in 2004 and was part of the multiple Guest Director group for TFF 's 40th Anniversary in 2013.  My records also indicate that Henry was at the fest in 2007 as well.

Henry was probably best known as the co-writer of Mike Nichols classic The Graduate, a film that would be on Top Ten list of all-timers.  Henry was a two time Oscar nominee.  The first came for the screenplay of The Graduate the other came as co-director of Heaven Can Wait with Warren Beatty.

He also wrote or co-wrote the screenplays for Catch-22, The Owl and the Pussycat, What's Up Doc?, The Day of the Dolphin and To Die For.  He was also the co-creator, along with Mel Brooks, of the 1960's comedy Get Smart.

Henry was also an early and often host for Saturday Night Live having reportedly hosted 10 times.

I got to meet Henry in 2013 in Telluride and express my thanks for his incredible career of providing thought provoking entertainment and a bunch of laughter.  That's the photo you see above.

Maybe the best thing that's happened at TFF over the years that I've been going has been opportunities like that- a chance to thank people for what they've meant in your life that you're never going to see at any other moment.  I don't do it often because I don't want to annoy- but my admiration for Buck was such that I knew that I'd kick myself if I didn't just tell the man "Thank you".

And thanks again Buck!



SPECIAL NOTE: FINAL OSCAR PREDIX ON SUNDAY!!!

I'll have the MTFB Final Oscar nomination predictions for this year posted at 6pm EST on Sunday, Jan. 12th

As of this morning, using the latest projections I have for each of the 21 feature categories- which will be updated for Sunday and will mean that there will be changes between now and then- here are the predicted nominee leaders:

Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood-12 (and the only film in double digits)
The Irishman-9
1917-8
Marriage Story-8
Joker-7
Parasite-6
Ford v Ferrari-5
The Two Popes-4
Bombshell-4
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker-4
Rocketman-4
Jojo Rabbit-3

All others 2 or fewer.

Other TFF #46 films:
Pain and Glory-2
Judy-2
Beanpole-1

Total TFF #46 nominations predicted- 28-but that will also likely change with Sunday's final predictions.






GUILDS: WRITERS, DIRECTORS, PRODUCERS AND BAFTA

Since my last post we've seen a ton of precursors name names for 2019 giving us new information to parse about Oscar nomination possibilities.  Let's run that down from the perspective of TFF #46 films.

WRITERS GUILD OF AMERICA (WGA) NOMINEES

The Writers Guild announced their nominations for screen writing on Monday>  TFF #46 films which were nominated were: Noah Baumbach's Marriage Story and Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin Won's Parasite in the Original Screenplay category.  No TFF #46 films were named as nominees for Best Adapted Screenplay.

Other Original Script nominees were for: 1917, Booksmart and Knives Out.  Adapted script nominees included: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker and Little Women.


DIRECTORS GUILD OF AMERICA (DGA) NOMINEES

Parasite's Bong Joon-ho was the only TFF #46 director named by the DGA for their Director of the Year prize.  Noah Baumbach/Marriage Story, James Mangold/Ford v Ferrari, and Fernando Meirelles/The Two Popes all failed to be nominated.

The other four DGA nominees are Sam Mendes/1917, Martin Scorsese/The Irishman, Quentin Tarantino/Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood and Taika Waititi/Jojo Rabbit.


PRODUCERS GUILD OF AMERICA (PGA) NOMINEES

The ten films named as potential winners of the PGA Award for Best Picture included three TFF #46 films: Ford v. Ferrari, Marriage Story and Parasite.

The other seven PGA nominees are: 1917, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Knives Out, Little Women and Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood.

Sasha Stone, founder of Awards Daily says that this tells that these results mean that the 2019 Best Picture Oscar winner is on this list of five films: 1917, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood and Parasite.

That means that Bong Joon-ho's Parasite now stands as the best bet for re-starting Telluride's trend for having screened the Best Picture winner is Parasite.


BRITISH ACADEMY OF FILM AND TELEVISION ARTS (BAFTA)

The British version of The Oscars named their nominees on Tuesday and TFF #46 films snagged 23 nominations.  Here are the Telluride films that were nominated:

Marriage Story had five: Scarlett Johansson/Best Actress, Adam Driver/Best Actor, Laura Dern/Best Supporting Actress, Noah Baumbach/Best Original Screenplay and Best Casting.

The Two Popes had five: Best British Film, Jonathan Pryce/Best Actor, Anthony Hopkins/Best Supporting Actor, Anthony McCarten/Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Casting.

Parasite had four: Best Film, Bong Joon-ho/Best Director, Bong and Jin Han Won/Best Original Screenplay and Best Film Not in the English Language.

Le Mans 66 (that's Ford v Ferrari to you and me) had three: Best Editing, Best Cinematography and Best Sound.

Judy had three: Renee Zellweger/Best Actress, Best Costumes and Best Makeup/Hair.

Single nominations came for:

Pain and Glory: Best Film Not in the English Language.
Portrait of a Lady on Fire: Best Film Not in the English Language.
Diego Maradona: Best Documentary.

Joker lead all films with 11 nominations followed closely by Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood and The Irishman with 10 nominations apiece.




OSCAR PREDICTIONS UPDATED

Here's my latest calls on the probable Oscar nominees in the categories of Costumes, Makeup and Hair and Production Design.  TFF #46 films are indicated in Bold.

COSTUMES (Last predicted on Dec. 19th)

1) Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood (1)
2) Little Women (3)
3) Dolemite Is My Name (2)
4) Downton Abbey (5)
5) Rocketman (4)
6) 1917 (-)

Other possibles:Harriet, The Irishman, Judy, Jojo Rabbit


MAKEUP/HAIR (last updated Dec. 19th)

1) Bombshell (1)
2) Judy (4)
3) Rocketman (3)
4) Joker (2)
5) Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood (5)
6) 1917 (-)

Other possibles: Dolemite Is My Name, Downton Abbey, Little Women, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil


PRODUCTION DESIGN (last updated Dec. 12th)

1) Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood (1)
2) 1917 (2)
3) The Irishman (3)
4) Parasite (6)
5) Joker (5)
6) Jojo Rabbit (-)

Other possibles: Little Women, The Two Popes,  Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, Ad Astra


MTFB IN OTHER PLACES



The latest Gurus of Gold is up at Movie City News.  It's got the latest Oscar predix for Best Picture as well as a specialty poll.  We were asked to give 3-5 "Unlikely Underdogs" a shout out.  Among mine were an endorsement for Tracy Letts as as Best Supporting Actor for Ford v Ferrari and, in the same category, Kevin Garnett in Uncut Gems.

Take a look at the rest of the Gurus at this link.

Meanwhile, I also have a post up over at The Script Lab.  I wrote about the screenplays both adapted and original that are the most likely to be nominated next Monday morning.  I name a dozen for each category and include a small rundown about the film/screenplay/writers as well as providing my latest ranking of which scripts will be nominated.

Take a look at that post linked here.


FIRST COW TRAILER

According to the fine folks at Indiewire, Kelly Reichardt's TFF #46 player, First Cow has a trailer.  Here it is linked from YouTube:

First Cow is set for release on Mar. 6th.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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