It's Almost Oscar Time: Eight Feature Categories That Might Be Your Oscar Pool Busters

IT'S ALMOST OSCAR TIME: EIGHT FEATURE CATEGORIES THE MIGHT BE YOUR OSCAR POOL BUSTERS

Hi there on a Pre-Oscar Thursday...

We're taking a look today at what seem to me to be the tightest eight feature categories heading into Oscar night.

EDITING

One Battle After Another seems is pretty solid shape here but a win for F1 is still possible and Sinners isn't completely out of the picture.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

This category was jumping as Oscar voting came to an end.  OBAA is my pick (currently-it could change by Sunday morning).  Sinners and Train Dreams are serious contenders.

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

For months this has seemed like a slam dunk for Sentimental Value and it still seems to be the favorite but The Secret Agent is also strong.  Could Brazil upend Norway?  Yup, it could happen.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

This has burgeoned into a three headed contest with Amy Madigan (Weapons), Teyana Taylor (OBAA) and, of late Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) all viable candidates.  Right now MTFB has Madigan winning...but...

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Maybe the most fluid of all 24 categories.  Stellan Skarsgard has felt like the leader almost all season but recent events (BAFTA, SAG) have pushed Sean Penn back to the top of the leaderboard.  Delroy Lindo has also experienced a burst of support.  Honestly, any of the five nominees could win the thing Sunday.  I have Penn...currently.

LEAD ACTOR

Timothee Chalamet has been riding at the top of the Oscar predictions charts for Lead Actor for months...now, maybe not so much.  Chalamet is facing some headwinds for comments he's made and. perhaps his general demeanor as he has moved through Oscar season.  Benefitting?  It would seem Sinners' Michael B. Jordan.  The race here could really come down to early Oscar voters vs. later Oscar voters. And, as a side note, if I was going to pack a category to bet a little and win a lot it would be to wager on Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent).

DIRECTION

A two man race here between PTA for OBAA and Ryan Coogler for Sinners.  Currently MTFB has Anderson winning.  Will the director's trophy point to Best Picture or will there be a split?

PICTURE

One Battle After Another has been perceived as the leader here for most of the season but Sinners win for Ensemble at SAG/Aftra suggest that the biggest branch of the Academy loves the film. From what I can see, it's tight.

These eight categories plus the always unpredictable Shorts categories probably decide who has bragging rights on Monday morning.

MTFB is currently predicting TFF films winning:

Hamnet: Buckley/Actress

Sentimental Value: International Feature

Frankenstein: Makeup/Hair, Costume Design, Production Design

Shorts: All the Empty Rooms (Doc Short), Two People Exchanging Saliva (Live Action Short)

Final thoughts/predictions coming for all 24 categories on Sunday morning.

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MTFB Oscar Update: Seven Craft Categories / Predictions for Shorts Categories

Well, better a day late than never.  Here's what would have been yesterday's post if I weren't on the road.

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SEVEN CRAFT CATEGORIES

TFF films indicated in Bold.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) One Battle After Another (2)

2) Sinners (1)

3) Train Dreams (3)

4) Marty Supreme (4)

5) Frankenstein (5)

EDITING

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) F1 (2)

3) Sinners (3)

4) Marty Supreme (4)

5) Sentimental Value (5)

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Frankenstein (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) Hamnet (3)

4) Marty Supreme (4)

5) One Battle After Another (5)

COSTUMES

1) Frankenstein (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) Hamnet (3)

4) Marty Supreme (4)

5) Avatar: Fire and Ash (5)

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Frankenstein (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) The Smashing Machine (3)

4) Kokuho (5)

5) The Ugly Stepsisters (4) 

SOUND

1) F1 (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) One Battle After Another (3)

4) Sirat (4)

5) Frankenstein (5)

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Avatar: Fire and Ash (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) F1 (3)

4) The Lost Bus (4)

5) Jurassic World Rebirth (5)

PREDICITONS FOR SHORTS CATEGORIES

ANIMATED SHORT

1) The Girl Who Cried Pearls

2) Butterfly

2) Retirement Plan

4) The Three Sisters 

5) Forevergreen

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) All the Empty Rooms

2) Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud

3) The Devil Is Busy

4) Children No More: Were and Gone

5) Perfectly a Strangeness

LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Two People Exchanging Saliva

2) The Singers

3) A Friend of Dorothy

4) Butcher's Stain

5) Jane Austen's Period Drama

This and That: Cinematography and editing are up in the air.  If MTFB's predictions are correct TFF films win two of the three shorts categories.

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MTFB Oscar Update: Next to Last Predix for Oscar's Middle Six / Visitations: Jesse Buckley, Ethan Hawke and More

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: NEXT TO LAST PREDIX FOR OSCARS MIDDLE SIX

The latest predictions from MTFB for Casting, International Feature, Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, Original Score and Original Song.

BEST CASTING

1) Sinners (1)

2) One Battle After Another (2)

3) Hamnet (4)

4) Marty Supreme (3)

5) The Secret Agent (5)

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) Sentimental Value (1)

2) The Secret Agent (2)

3) It Was Just an Accident (3)

4) Sirat (4)

5) The Voice of Hund Rajab (5)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) K-Pop Demon Hunters (1)

2) Zootopia 2 (2)

3) Arco (4)

4) Little Amelie or the Character of Rain (3)

5) Elio (5)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) The Perfect Neighbor (1)

2) Mr. Nobody Against Putin (5)

3) The Alabama Solution (2)

4) Come See Me in the Good Light (3)

5) Cutting Through Rocks (4)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Sinners (1)

2) One Battle After Another (2)

3) Hamnet (3)

4) Frankenstein (4)

5) Bugonia (5)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) Golden/K-Pop Demon Hunters (1)

2) I Lied to You/Sinners (2)

3) Train Dreams/Train Dreams (4)

4) Dear Me/Dianne Warren: Relentless (3)

5) Sweet Dreams of Joy/Viva Vivaldi (5)

This and That: Huge movement for Mr. Nobody Against Putin.  Small adjustments in casting, Animated Feature and Original Song.

VISITATIONS

Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value from Next Best Picture.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_fwxuEWxSpI

Jesse Buckley for Hamnet from Variety.

https://variety.com/2025/film/awards/jessie-buckley-why-hamnet-isnt-grief-porn-1236564879/

Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon from Variety.

https://variety.com/2025/film/awards/ethan-hawke-blue-moon-linklater-before-movie-1236551849/

Renate Reinsve for Sentimental Value from Next Best Picture.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WQpi055nXVQ

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

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MTFB Oscar Update: Penultimate Predix for the Big Eight Categories/ PGA and The Sag/Aftra Awards / Ghost Elephants Trailer / Visitations: Trier and Herzog

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: PENULTIMATE PREDIX FOR THE BIG EIGHT CATEGORIES

BEST PICTURE

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) Hamnet (3)

4) Sentimental Value (4)

5) Marty Supreme (5)

6) Frankenstein (6)

7) The Secret Agent (7)

8) Train Dreams (9)

9) Bugonia (8)

10) F1 (10)

BEST DIRECTION

1) Paul Thomas Anderson/One Battle After Another (1)

2) Ryan Coogler/Sinners (2)

3) Joachim Trier/Sentimental Value (4)

4) Chloe Zhao/Hamnet (3)

5) Josh Safdie/Marty Supreme (5)

BEST ACTRESS

1) Jesse Buckley/Hamnet (1)

2) Rose Byrne/If I Had Legs I's Kick You (2)

3) Renate Reinsve/Sentimental Value (3)

4) Kate Hudson/Song Sung Blue (4)

5) Emma Stone/Bugonia (5)

BEST ACTOR

1) Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme (1)

2) Michael B. Jordan/Sinners (4)

3) Wagner Moura/The Secret Agent (3)

4) Leonardo DiCaprio/One Battle After Another (2)

5) Ethan Hawke/Blue Moon (5)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Teyana Taylor/One Battle After Another (1)

2) Wunmi Moskau/Sinners (3)

3) Amy Madigan/Weapons (2)

4) Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas/Sentimental Value (4)

5) Elle Fanning/Sentimental Value (5)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Stellan Skarsgard/Sentimental Value (1)

2) Sean Penn/One Battle After Another (5)

3) Delroy Lindo/Sinners (4)

4) Jacob Elordi/Frankenstein (2)

5) Benicio Del Toro/One Battle After Another (3)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Sinners (1)

2) Sentimental Value (2)

3) Marty Supreme (3)

4) It Was Just an Accident (4)

5) Blue Moon (5)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Hamnet (2)

3) Train Dreams (3)

4) Bugonia (4)

5) Frankenstein (5)

This and That:

*Supporting Actor is all over the place now.  

*Supporting Actress is also very unsettled. 

*Best Picture and Actor are also a bit unsettled as we move into the last couple of weeks prior to Oscar night on Mar. 15.  *

Look out for Wagner Moura in the Best Actor race.

PGA AND THE "ACTOR" AWARDS

One Battle After Another won the Producers' Guild top prize on Saturday night seemingly sealing it for the Best Picture Oscar.  Meanwhile at the SAG/Aftra's Actor Awards on Sunday night:

Ensemble: Sinners

Female Lead: Jesse Buckley/Hamnet

Male Lead: Michael B. Jordan/Sinners

Female Supporting: Amy Madigan/Weapons

Male Supporting: Sean Penn/One Battle After Another

Stunt Ensemble: Mission Impossible: The Fina Reckoning

GHOST ELEPHANTS TRAILER

VISITATIONS

Director Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value from THR's Awards Chatter Podcast.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/awards-chatter-pod-joachim-trier-sentimental-value-1236517803/

Werner Herzog for Ghost Elephants from The Film Stage.

https://thefilmstage.com/werner-herzog-on-dreams-defeats-ghost-elephants-and-why-hes-not-a-workaholic/

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

Bluesky: @gort2.bsky.social

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MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

If you would like to be added to the MTFB e-mail list send an email to mpgort@gmail.com