WHO'S GOT WHAT? DISTRIBUTORS: NETFLIX
Each summer it has become the habit here at MTFB to take a look at the film distribution companies that have the largest presence at TFF historically and scan their list of films for potential titles that could end up in the San Juans come Labor Day.
This year, I calibrated the last five TFFs to determine which companies on which to focus. Here's the number of films that each of the eight most frequent distributors over hat time have screened at Telluride:
Netflix 24
Neon 15
Sony Pictures Classics 13
Focus Features 11
A24 10
Mubi 9
Amazon-MGM 7
Searchlight 5
Not all of these distributors can be expected every year but commonly are.
So, we start the 2025 parade of distributors with the outfit that has been to TFF the most over the most half decade and that's Netflix with 24 films.
2021:The Power of the Dog, The Hand of God, The Lost Daughter, Procession.
2022: Bardo, Sr. The Wonder, lady Chatterley's Lover.
2023: Nyad, Rustin, El Conde.
2024: Emilia Perez, Maria, Martha, The Piano Lesson, Will and Harper, Apocalypse in the Tropics.
2025: Frankenstein, Jay Kelly, The Ballad of a Small Player, The Secret Agent, Cover-Up, Nouvellle Vague, The New Yorker at 100.
24 films over these last five years (13 in the last two) but this year seems like Netflix may not be as present. It feels like the streamer just doesn't have the depth of potential films as they may have had in the past.
For awhile I thought they might release Narnia: The Magician's Nephew for the holiday season and that it might actually be a Telluride possibility because of the film's director, Greta Gerwig, who has had, along with her husband Noah Baumbach, a fairly substantial relationship with TFF. But it has been dated for theatrical release on Feb. 12, 2027 which suggests that there's not a chance it goes to Telluride (and realistically, there wasn't much chance outside my head).
Then there's Greg Kwedar's Saturn Return (Train Dreams, Sing Sing) which is on Variety's "first look" at 2026-27 Oscar predictions BUT is listed at IMDb as being under Netflix's control for VOD and has only a very non-specific "2026" listed as its release date. Kwedar, along with producing partner Clint Bentley are on a roll. The cast includes Rachel Brosnahan and Will Poulter.
Additionally, Fernando Meirelles could return to Telluride with Here Comes the Flood. It has an ambiguous "2026" release and some big name stars: Denzel Washington, Robert Pattinson and Daisy Edgar-Jones. Meirelles was at Telluride in 2019 with The Two Popes... that followed a long absence after his previous TFF experience in 2002 with City of God.
Netflix has a couple of films that played Cannes that are also likely in play: Gentle Monster and La Bola Negra (The Black Ball).
Marie Kreuzter's Gentle Monster had a tough time at Cannes with a middling critical response at best and no prize from being with the Palme d'Or competition.
And finally, what is probably Netflix's most likely Telluride player: La Bola Negra (The Black Ball). A critical success (85 on Metacritic) and co-winners for Best Director at Cannes. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo shred the prize for direction with Fatherland's Pawel Pawlikowski.
So here are your chances per MTFB for each film of making the TFF #53 lineup:
The Black Ball 70%
Saturn Return 50%
Gentle Monster 40%
Here Comes the Flood 30%
***Netflix added Ink on July 18th
It's also very likely that Netflix will have other titles not listed here that do make the TFF #53 lineup.
Coming up on Monday...Neon...and they are loaded.
VENETIAN SPECULATION
The Hollywood Reporter, among other outlets, unleashed speculation about what films could be announced for the Venice Film Festival. Frequent readers of MTFB know that the Venice to Telluride connection is very powerful and I expect this year to be no different with 6-8 titles making an early play at Venice and then screening a day or two later at T-ride.
The key to puzzling that out is a two step process. See what's been selected and then wait to find out when a film is scheduled to play in Venice. If your film plays withing the first 3-4 days in Italy...there's a decent chance it will also play in Colorado.
So here's a selection of potential Venetian titles that could jump the pond using The Hollywood Reporter's list from just over a week ago, THR has listed 40 title in alphabetical order...so I will too with director and U.S. distributor where possible:
A Long Winter (Haigh/Mubi)
Behemoth! (T. Gilroy/Searchlight)
Being Heumann (Heder/Apple)
Bucking Fastard (Herzog/???)
Bunker (Zeller/???)
Here Comes the Flood (Meirelles/Netflix)
Ink (Boyle/???)
I Play Rocky (Farrelly/Amazon-MGM)
Untitled Jesse Eisenberg [The Debut] (Eisenberg/A24)
Look Back (Kore-eda/GKIDS)
Musk Gibney/Bleecker Street)
Primetime (Oppenheim/A24)
Saturn Return (Kwedar/Netflix)
Tender Loving Care (Leigh/Bleecker Street)
The Basics of Philosophy (Schrader/???)
The Social Reckoning (Sorkin/Columbia)
The Statement (McCarthy/SPC)
Wild Horse Nine (McDonagh/
Interestingly, the THR mentions Telluride as a possible stop for films on their list:
A Long Winter
Being Heumann
Ink
The Social Reckoning
and Paul Greengrass's The Uprising...which, as you can see, isn't on my list above.
The other thing that's interesting is that the list includes Alejandro Inarritu's Digger, which, as far as I know, is still on record from Warners as having no fall fest plans...interesting.
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lists/venice-2026-buzz-dune3-digger-mike-leigh-werner-herzog/the-statement-director-tom-mccarthy/
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