MTFB's Initial Oscar Nomination Predictions: Lead Acting / TFF #53 Dominates Awards at Middleburg Fest

 MTFB'S INITIAL OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICITIONS: LEAD ACTING

MTFB starts out its Oscar nomnation predicitions for the 2027 awards with our initial predix for Best Actress and Actor. TFF #53 artists are in Bold.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Julianne Moore/The Debut

2) Sandra Huller/Rose

3) Inde Naverrette/Obsession

4) Olivia Wilde/The Invite

5) Renee Reinsve/Fjord

Others: Virginia Efira/All of a Sudden, Carrie Coon/The Liberation, Marion Bailey/Tender Loving Care.

BEST ACTOR

1) Andrew Scott/Elsinore

2) John Malkovich/Wild Horse Nine

3) Matt Damon/The Odyssey

4) John Turturro/The Only Living Pickpocket in New York

5) Ryan Gosling/Project Hail MarBest y

Others:Tom Cruise/Digger, Pedro Pascal/Behemoth!, Anthony Ippolito/I Play Rocky.

TFF #53 DOMINATES AWARDS AT MIDDLEBURG FEST

The Middleburg Film Fest ran Oct. 15-18th.  at its comclusion the fest announced winners of its annual Audience Awards.  

For Best Narrative, TFF #53 films took the top three spots;  

2nd Runnerup: Wild Horse Nine

1st Runnerup: Elsinore

Winner: The Debut

Best International Film; La Bola Negra

Best Documentary: 14th

The awards were reported by The Contending's Joey Moser and and his entire article can be found here.

https://thecontending.com/middleburg-awards/

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MTFB First Oscar Nomination Predictions: Picture and Direction / TFF #53 and the Mill Valley Fest Awards / Critics Choice Documentary Nominees / Trailer for A Long Winter

MTFB FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS: PICTURE AND DIRECTION

MTFB starts out its Oscar nomnation predicitions for the 2027 awards with our initial predix for Best Picture and Best Direction.  

BEST PICTURE

1) The Odyessy

2) Wild Horse Nine

3) La Bola Negra

4) Project Hail Mary

5) The Invite

6) Dune: Part Three

7) The Debut

8) Fjord

9) I Play Rocky

10) You Can See Everything

Others: Club Kid, All of a Sudden, Elsinore.

DIRECTION

1) Christopher Nolan/The Odyessy

2) Martin McDonagh/Wild Horse Nine

3) Javier Ambrossi, Javier Calvo/La Bola Negra

4) Olivia Wilde/The Invite

5) Denis Villemeuve/Dune: Part Three

Others: Phil Lord, Christopher Miller/Project Hail Mary, Ryusuke Hamaguchi/All of a Sudden, Christian Mungiu/Fjord.

I'll have the first MTFB predictions for Lead Acting up for Thursday's post.

TFF #53 FILMS AND THE MILL VALLEY FEST AWARDS

TFF #53 films were wellrepresented at the end of the Mill Valley Film Festival with Tenzing and Elsinore taking top honors among awards voted on by MVFF audiences.  Here's the rundown:

Overall Audience Award: Tenzing

Audience Award: Narrative Feature: Elsinore

Acting Awards went to Andrew Scott for Elsinore and Lea Seydoux for Gentle Monster.

Mind the Gap Award for Direction: Marie Kreutzer/Gentle Monster.

You can see the entire list of MVFF winners via Awards Watch linked here.

https://awardswatch.com/tenzing-elsinore-win-49th-mill-valley-film-festival-audience-awards/

CRITICS CHOICE DOCUMENTARY AWARDS NOMINEES INCLUDE LOTS OF TFF #53 FILMS

The Critics Chioce Awards announced nominees for the best of 2026.  Several TFF #53 made the cut as well as three docs from TFF #52.  Here are the Telluride docs earning nominations:

You Can See Everything (5): Best Documentary Feature, Direction, Cinematography, Editing and Score.

Once Upon a Time in Harlem (5): Best Documentary Feature, Best Forst Documentary Feature, Best Historical Doc, Best Archival Doc.

Everest: The Other Side (4): Best Documentary Feature, Best Sports Doc, Cinematography and Editing.

Rehearsals for a Revolution (3): Best Documentary Feature,  Best Archival Doc, Best Narration.

Making Marie Antoinette (1): Best Archival Doc.

Avedon (1): best Bioraphical Doc.

And fro TFF #52:

Man on the Run (2): Best Music Doc, Best Archival Doc.

Everywhere Man (1): Best Music Doc.

Ask E, Jean (1) Best Political Doc.

Ava Dubernay's 14th, which did not play at Telluride, led all nominees with six.

The complete list of nominees is here from The Critics Choice Association

https://www.criticschoice.com/nominations-unveiled-for-the-11th-annual-critics-choice-documentary-awards/

TRAILER FOR ANDREW HAIGH'S A LONG WINTER

From YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MpIwPydkWac&t=6s

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The Digging Process / Oscar Experts with Early Predictions-Mark Johnson-The Contending / TFF #53 Films Honored at Hampton Fest

 THE DIGGING PROCESS

Nope...this isn't a segment musing about Inarritu's Digger.

Periodically I sit down and go through my "Future Telluride" folder.  Yes, it's true.  I see something that looks interesting regarding Telluride, I stuff it in there for future reference.  Is it valuable?  I think so.  As an example...here are some of the films that I had tucked away a year to two years befor they bowed at Teluride:

The Only Living Pickpocket in New York

Ink

A Long Winter

Fatherland

Bucking Fastard

The Debut

Mastermind

Jay Kelly

Hamnet

As a tease, I have nearly two dozen titles sitting in the folder that feel like they could be TFF #64 or #55 choices...but I'm keeping those quiet...for now.

OSCAR EXPERTS WITH EARLY PREDICTIONS-MARK JOHNSON-THE CONTENDING

Not quite as comprehensive as some of the "experts" I have already shared.  All the folks, including Mark, the play the Oscar prediciton game have choices up for the "above-the-line" categories.

So, among those cateories, this is what mark is currently prediciting from films that played TFF #53:

Wild Horse Nine (6): Best Picture, Dircetion, Actor (Malkovich), Supporting Actor (Rockwell), Original Screenplay, Casting.

La Bola Negra (5): Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actor (Guitarricadelafuente), Adapted Screenplay, Casting.

The Debut (4): Best Picrure, Actress (Moore), Supporting Actor (Giamatti), Original Screenplay.

Elsinore (2): Best Picture, Actor (Scott).

Rose (1): Best Actress (Huller).

Club Kid (1): Original Screenplay.

Tender Loving Care (1): Original Screenplay.

Among these nine categories seven TFF #53 films are predicyed to pick 20 nominations.

Mark's complete set of predicitons is linked here.

https://thecontending.com/oscar-predictions/mark-johnson/

TFF #53 FILMS HONORED AT HAMPTON FEST

TFF #53 films were well rewarded by the just concluded Hampton International Film festival.

La Bola Negra was named Best Narrative feature this week,  Elsinore was named Best narrative Feature Audience Award winner.  Bugundy was named the audience winner for Best Documentary.

Here's a link to the awards winners from Gold Derby.

https://www.goldderby.com/film/2026/hamptons-international-film-festival-2026-winners/

The fest ran from Oct. 2-12.

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Early Predictions from Oscar Experts-Scott Feinberg of The Hollywood Reporter / New U.K. Trailer for Elsinore / Vsitations: Gentle Monster and Making Marie Antoinette

EARLY PREDICTIONS FROM OSCAR EXPERTS-SCOTT FEINBERG OF THE HOLLYWOOD REPORTER

MTFB continues the transition of this spece fromTelluride lineup specualtion to Oscar speculation.  I've been culling Oscar picks from a variety of sources to give readers a taste of where the opening weeks of Oscar season commences.  Today we look at the predicitions from Scott Feinberg from The Hollywood Reporter. Here are the TFF #53 films Feinberg is predicited for nominations:

La Bola Negra (14): Best Picture, International Feature, Direction, Supporting Actress (Cruz), Adapted Screenplay, Song, Casting, Cinematography, Costumes, Editing, Makeup/Hair, Production Design, Sound, Visual Effects.

Wild Horse Nine (10): Best Picture, Direction, Actor (Malkovich), Supporting Actor (Rockwell), Supporting Actress (di Giorlamo), Original Screenplay, Score, Casting, Cinematography, Edting.

The Debut (3): Best Actress (Moore), Supporting Actor (Giamatti), Song.

Club Kid (3): Best Picture, Original Screenplay, Casting.

Fjord (3): Best Picture, International Feature, Original Screenplay.

Elsinore (2): Best Picture, Actor (Scott).

Rose (2): Best  Inetrnational feature, Actress (Huller).

Fatherland (2): Best Cinematography, Production Design.

Tender Loving Care (2): Best Original Screenplay, Casting.

You Can See Everything (1): Best Picture.

The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (1): Best Actor (Turturro).

The Liberation (1): Best Actress (Coon).

Minotaur (1): Best International Feature.

Ink (1): Best Adapted Screenplay.

Once Upon a Time in Harlem (1): Best Documentary.

My Undesireable Friends-Part Two (1): Best Documentary.

Feinberg has 16 TFF #53 films earning 48 nominations.

The complete list of Feinberg's predictions is linked here.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lists/feinberg-forecast-post-venice-telluride-tiff-starts/best-documentary-feature-126/

NEW U.K.TRAILER FOR ELSINORE

via YouTube:

VISITATIONS

Lea Seydoux and Marie Kreutzer for Gentle Monster from Awards Watch.

https://awardswatch.com/interview-marie-kreutzer-and-lea-seydoux-on-navigating-the-complex-story-of-gentle-monster/

The Playlist looks at the Making of Marie Antoinette.

https://theplaylist.net/making-marie-antoinette-trailer-sofia-coppola-eleanor-coppola-20261008/

 

Early Predicitons from Oscar Experts-Matt Neglia of Next Best Picture / Fatherland Trailer

EARLY PREDICTIONS FROM OSCAR EXPERTS-MATT NEGLIA OF NEXT BEST PICTURE

MTFB continues the transition of this spece fromTelluride lineup specualtion to Oscar speculation.  I've been culling Oscar picks from a variety of sources to give readers a taste of where the opening weeks of Oscar season commences.  Today we look at the latest predicitions from Matt Neglia of Next Best Picture.  Here are the TFF #53 films Neglia is predicited for nominations:

La Bola Negra (12): Best Picture, Internationl Feature, Direction, Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Cinematography, Costumes, Editing, Production Design, Score, Song and Sound.

The Debut (5): Best Picture, Actress (Moore), Supporting Actor (Giaigatti), Original Screenplay, Song.

Wild Horse Nine (5): Best Picture, Actor (Malkovich), Supporting Actoe (Rockwell), Original Screenplay, Casting.

Fjord (2): Best International Feature, Original Screenplay.

Rose (2): Best Actress (Huller), Maekeup and Hair.

Tender Loving Care (1): Oeirinal Screeplay.

Neglia has 12 TFF #53 nominated with a combined total of 33 nominations.

You Can See Everything (1): Best Documentary.

Once Upon a Time in Harlem (1): Best Documentary.

Rearsal for a Revolution (1): Best Documentary.

Minotaur (1): Best International Feature.

Fatherland (1): Cinematography.

Neglia's complete predictions are linked here.

https://predictions.nextbestpicture.com/oscars?nu=655756da85df4c0efaa10bd2

FATHERLAND TRAILER

From YouTube:

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Oscar Experts Early Predictions: Awards Watch

 OSCAR EXPERTS EARLY PREDICITONS: AWARDS WATCH

MTFB continues to look at the opening set of Oscar predictions from various Oscarologists.  Today's look is from Erik Anderson's Awards Watch.  Here's what he has to say about TFF #53 films and Oscar nominations:

La Bola Negra (15): Best Picture, International Feature, Direction, Supporting Actor (Guitarricadelafuente), Supporting Actress (Cruz), Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Editing, Cinematography, Costumes, Production Design, Score, Song (x2) and Sound.

Wild Horse Nine (8): Best Picture, Direction, Actor (Malkovich), Supporting Actor (Rockwell), Original Screenplay, Casting, Editing, Score.

Fjord (7): Best Picture, Direction, International Feature, Actor (Stan), Actress (Reinsve), Original Screenplay, Casing.

The Debut (5): Best Picture, Actress (Moore), Supporting Actor (Giamatti), Original Screenplay, Song.

Elsinore (4): Best Picture, Actor (Scott), Supporting Actress (Colman), Editing.

Fatherland (2): Best International Feature, Cinematography.

Rose (1): Best Actress (Huller).

Club Kid (1): Best Original Screenplay.

Tender Loving Care (1): Best Original Screenplay.

You Can See Everything (1): Best Editing.

Once Upon a Time in Harlem (1): Best Documentary.

Rehearsals for a Revolution (1): Best Documentary.

Minotaur (1): Best International Feature.

That's 13 TFF #53 films with a predicted total of 48 nominations.

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Oscar Experts Early Predictions: Awards Radar / Elsinore Trailer / Rose Trailer

OSCAR EXPERTS EARLY PREDICTIONS: AWARDS RADAR

MTFB continues to look at the opening set of Oscar predictions from various Oscarologists.  Today's look is from Joey Magidson's Awards Radar.

La Bola Negra (10): Best Picture, International Feature, Direction, Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Cinematography, Costumes, Editing, Sound and Song. 

Wild Horse Nine (9): Best Picture, Direction, Actor (Malkovich), Supporting Actor (Rockwell), Original Screenplay, Casting, Cinematography, Editing, Score.

The Debut (5): Best Picture, Actress (Moore), Supporting Actor (Giamatti), Original Screenplay, Song.

Fjord (4): Best Picture, International Feature, Actor (Stan), Actress (Reinsve).

Club Kid (2): Best Picture, Original Screenplay.

Rose (2): Best International Feature, Actress (Huller).

You Can See Everything (2): Best Picture, Best Documentary.

Tender Loving Care (2): Best Supporting Actress (O'Flynn), Original Screenplay.

Elsinore (1): Best Actor (Scott).

The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (1): Best Actor (Turturro).

Liberation (1): Best Actress (Coon).

Fatherland (1): Best International Feature.

Awards Radar has 12 TFF #53 films earning a total of 39 nominations.

ELSINORE TRAILER

Released on Sept. 9th from YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SzopCeFAWF0&t=2s

ROSE TRAILER

Also released on Sept. 29th from YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KrmkNoxS6t4

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Turning the Page / Oscar Experts Early Picks: Variety / New Teaser for The Only Living Pickpocket in New York / New Poster for A Long Winter / Visitations: Oppenheim on You Can See Everything

TURNING THE PAGE

We've made the run of post-festival ratings with the reportage of results from my annual poll of the People, the Professionals and then the Composite of both together.  It looks like several films that screened at TFF #53 have the potential for Oscar success.  So, as has become the custom here at MTFB, we turn the page to what happens now in awards season to the films that made up the TFF #53 lineup.

GOLD DERBY'S EARLY LINE

Here's where Gold Derby experts have the Best Picture are at as an opening salvo on Oscar Season.

For quick reference here the ten movies that GD experts place as getting a Best Picture nomination (TFF #53 films are in Bold):

1) The Odyssey

2) Wild Horse Nine

3) Project Hail Mary

4) La Bola Negra

5) The Debut

6) The Invite

7) Dune: Part Three

8) Fjord

9) Digger

10) I Play Rocky

Three other TFF #53 films are in the Gold Derby Top 20 for Best Picture:

12) Elsinore

15) Club Kid

19)  Fatherland

OSCAR EXPERTS EARLY PICKS: VARIETY

I'm going to run through about half-a-dozen or so Oscar experts and their early predictions focusing on what they're saying vis-a-vis TFF #53 films.  We start with Clayton Davis of Variety.  Here's every TFF #53 film he predicts as nominees for the 21 feature categories:

Leading the way from the Davis predictions is La Bola Negra with 11 predicted nominations:

La Bola Negra (11): Best Picture, International Feature, Direction, Supporting Actress (Cruz), Adapted Screenplay, Production Design. Cinematography, Costumes, Editing, Sound, Score.

Wild Horse Nine (6): Best Picture, Direction, Actor (Malkovich), Supporting Actor (Rockwell), Original Screenplay, Editing.

The Debut (5): Best Picture, Actress (Moore), Supporting Actor (Giamatti), Original Screenplay, Song.

Tender Loving Care (3): Best Actress (Bailey), Supporting Actress (O'Flynn), Original Screenplay.

Elsinore (2): Best Actor (Scott), Casting

You Can See Everything (1): Best Picture.

The Only Living Pickpocker in New York (1): Best Actor (Tutturro).

Fatherland (1): Best Actress (Huller),

Club Kid (1): Best Original Screenplay.

Everest: The Other Side (1): Best Documentary.

Fjord (1): Best International Feature.

Minotaur (1) Best International Feature.

A total of 12 TFF #53 films would earn 34 Oscar nominations per the predictions from Davis.

You'll find all of Clayton's early predix here.

https://variety.com/lists/2027-oscars-predictions/best-picture-11/

NEW TEASER FOR THE ONLY LIVING PICKPOCKET IN NEW YORK

From YouTube:

NEW POSTER FOR A LONG WINTER

VISITATIONS

Lance Oppenheim on You Can See Everything...and Other Projects.

https://theplaylist.net/lance-oppenheim-primetime-robert-pattinson-you-can-see-everything-nathan-fielder-interview-20260925/?

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The Composite Telluride for 2026 / Trailers for Wild Horse Nine and You Can See Everything

THE COMPOSITE TELLURIDE FOR 2026 

We cap off the run of posts that highlight the way people rated the films at Telluride today with what I call The Composite Telluride in which I add up a film's ratings from both The People and the Pros.  

This year nine films had enough responses from both groups to make this list.  There are seven films that made one list but didn't make The Composite because they failed to get enough people to see them from one group or the other.  Those were You Can See Everything which didn't make the People's list and Rose, Tenzing, Liberation, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York, Fatherland and Alpha Gang which weren't seen by enough Pros.

So, here's the Composite.  Each title is listed with it's composite rating (on a scale of 10) and its positions on the Pro list then the Peoples list.

1) Wild Horse Nine 9.05 [2-2]

2) La Bola Negra 8.64 [6-1]

3) Club Kid 8.57 [4-4]

4) The Debut 8.29 [5-6]

5) Fjord 8.23 [3-8]

6) Elsinore 8.16 [8-3]

7) Tender Loving Care 7.22 [7-12]

8) Ink 7.16 [9-11]

9) A Long Winter 5.99 [10-14]

Another note to pass along are the films that were seen most frequently...indicating the initial interest, or lack thereof, for a particular film.

These were the hottest films using that metric (according to the People's Poll):

1) The Debut with 83.7% of respondents having seen it.

2) Wild Horse Nine 84.1%

3) Elsinore 81.0%

4) Ink 77.8%

5) La Bola Negra (Tie) 61.9%

5) Club Kid (Tie) 61.9%

And for some historical perspective:

You Can See Everything will move to the top of the list for ratings by The Professionals.  Its 4.83 rating average will top Moonlight by .01 of a point.  Moonlight had a 4.82.

Wild Horse Nine will become the #10 all-time rated by the Professionals with its 4.62 jumping ahead of La La Land.

La Bola Negra becomes the #8 all time highest rated film for The People's Poll with its 4.56.

Wild Horse Nine also becomes the #9 rated film on the all time Composite list with its 9.05.

La Bola Negra becomes the #25 rated film on the all time Composite list with its 8.64.

TRAILERS FOR WILD HORSE NINE AND YOU CAN SEE EVERYTHNG

WILD HORSE NINE from YouTube:

And a new poster as well:

 

YOU CAN SEE EVERYTHING from You Tube:

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Final Bets for TFF #53 / The People's Telluride

Well, here we are on the cusp of another Telluride Film Festival and as promised hare is a look at my final "bets" to play TFF #53.  As a reminder of where we've been here:

The original Ten Bets from back in June (with what I think is playing designated with***):

***The Black Ball

***Bucking Fastard

Coward-NOPE

***The Debut

***Fatherland

***A Long Winter

***Minotaur

Paper Tiger-NOPE

The Story of Documentary Film-MAYBE

Yellow Letters-MAYBE

AND HERE'S THE FINAL PREDICITION

1) Elsinore

2) The Debut

3) Ink

4) Club Kid

5) Bucking Fastard

6) Wild Horse Nine

7) Fatherland

8) La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)

9) A Long Winter

10) Everest: The Other Side

11) Minotaur

12) Fjord

13) Tender Loving Care

14) Gentle Monster

15) Rose

16) The Man I Love

17)The Alpha Gang

18) My Undesirable Friends Part II

19) Rehearsal for a Revolution

20) The Only Living Pickpocket in New York

21) Tenzing

22) The Idiots

23) The Liberation

24) Making Marie Antoinette

25) One More Time

Other possibilities: 

 

Ancient History

The Basics of Philosophy

Burgundy

Diamond

Primetime

Sense and Sensibility

The Story of Documentary Film

The Unknown

Yellow Letters

I'll post the announced schedule tomorrow morning when it's released.

THE PEOPLE'S TELLURIDE-14TH EDITION

For the 14th year MTFB is soliciting your input for The People's Telluride.  All you have to do is watch films during the fest and then, when it's all over, report to me your assessment of each film on a 1-5 scale with 1 being "UGH!" and 5 being "GREAT".

Report your ratings to: mpgort@gmail.com 

The deadline for this year to turn in your ratings will be Sept. 15th.

Time to Rock 'n Roll...see you in The Ride!

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Twenty (Plus) Bets for TFF #53-Vol. 11 / Tribute Clues from Telluride / Other Outlets Talk Telluride / This and That: Wild Horse Nine and Ink / This and That

TWENTY (PLUS) BETS FOR TFF #53- VOL. 11

As I write today's post, we are a week away from the lineup announcement.  The easy work is done with Toronto, New York and Venice all revealing information from which we can infer probable films playing in Telluride.  We're now in a phase where the sleuthing comes down to scraps of information online or from behind the scenes.  In some ways it's the most fun.

Anyway, we're a week away and this is the next to last update before The SHOW kicks off next week.  Reviewing last week's 20+ Bets:

1) Elsinore

2) The Debut

3) Ink

4) Club Kid

5) Bucking Fastard

6) Wild Horse Nine

7) Fatherland

8) La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)

9) A Long Winter

10) The Alpha Gang

11) Fjord

12) Minotaur

13) Everest: The Other Side

14) Tender Loving Care

15) Gentle Monster

16) Rose

17) The Man I Love

18) My Undesirable Friends Part II

19) Rehearsal for a Revolution

20) The Unknown

21) Tenzing

22) The Idiots

23) The Liberation

24) Making Marie Antoinette

25) One More Time

Other possibilities: 

 

Ancient History

The Basics of Philosophy

Burgundy

Diamond

Primetime

The Story of Documentary Film

Yellow Letters

And here is this week's updated Bets:

1) Elsinore

2) The Debut

3) Ink

4) Club Kid

5) Bucking Fastard

6) Wild Horse Nine

7) Fatherland

8) La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)

9) A Long Winter

10) Everest: The Other Side

11) Minotaur

12) Fjord

13) Tender Loving Care

14) Gentle Monster

15) Rose

16) The Man I Love

17)The Alpha Gang

18) My Undesirable Friends Part II

19) Rehearsal for a Revolution

20) The Unknown

21) Tenzing

22) The Idiots

23) The Liberation

24) Making Marie Antoinette

25) One More Time

Other possibilities: 

 

Ancient History

The Basics of Philosophy

Burgundy

Diamond

The Only Living Pickpocket in New York

Primetime

Sense and Sensibility

The Story of Documentary Film

Yellow Letters

I'll have one FINAL BETS post a week from today.

TRIBUTE CLUES FROM TELLURIDE

One of the ways that often give clues about what direction Tributes might be going has traditionally been to look at films scheduled for free in Elks Park prior to the start of the fest.  Earlier this morning the flyer for the free screening s is up:

It's difficult to see here, but Wednesday night is a screening of Project Hail Mary and Thursday is Being John Malkovich.  Draw your own conclusions,,,

OTHER OUTLETS TALK TELLURIDE

A number of film-centric websites are opining re: TFF #53's films.  Links to some of those are here:

Awards Radar

The Contending's Top Ten Tuesday

Next Best Picture

Awards Watch

The Contending Podcast

THIS AND THAT

***TFF executive Director Julie Huntsinger on this year's festival from Variety

***An interview with WH9's writer Director Martin McDonagh is linked here from Entertainment Weekly

***First looks at Ink from Vanity Fair

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Twenty (Plus) Bets for TFF #53-Vol. 10 / Talking Tributes / Club Kid Trailer and Poster / Digger to Bow in London

TWENTY (PLUS) BETS FOR TFF #53

Last week's 20 Bets:

 1) Elsinore

2) The Debut

3) Ink

4) Club Kid

5) La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)

6) A Long Winter

7) Fjord

8) Minotaur

9) Everest: The Other Side

10) Tender Loving Care

11) Gentle Monster

12) Wild Horse Nine

13) Fatherland

14) Rose

15) The Man I Love

16) My Undesirable Friends Part II

17) Rehearsal for a Revolution

18) The Unknown

19) Bucking Fastard

20) Tenzing

21) Alpha Gang

22) The Idiots

23) The Liberation

24) Making Marie Antoinette

25) One More Time

Other possibilities: 

 

Ancient History

The Basics of Philosophy

Burgundy

Diamond

Primetime

Sense and Sensibility

The Story of Documentary Film

Yellow Letters

And here's your update with just two weeks left to The SHOW:

1) Elsinore

2) The Debut

3) Ink

4) Club Kid

5) Bucking Fastard

6) Wild Horse Nine

7) Fatherland

8) La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)

9) A Long Winter

10) The Alpha Gang

11) Fjord

12) Minotaur

13) Everest: The Other Side

14) Tender Loving Care

15) Gentle Monster

16) Rose

17) The Man I Love

18) My Undesirable Friends Part II

19) Rehearsal for a Revolution

20) The Unknown

21) Tenzing

22) The Idiots

23) The Liberation

24) Making Marie Antoinette

25) One More Time

Other possibilities: 

 

Ancient History

The Basics of Philosophy

Burgundy

Diamond

Primetime

The Story of Documentary Film

Yellow Letters

TALKING TRIBUTES

We're so close to TFF #53 so it seems like a good time to speculate about TFF Tributes.  The fest traditionally choses 3 individuals for this special honor each year.  That can and has varied from time to time but three is the most common.

Past tribute recipients that could possibly be in Telluride include:

Cate Blanchett

Danny Boyle

Kem Burns

Mark Cousins

Penelope Cruz

Catherine Denueve

Werner Herzog

Mike Leigh

Rooney Mara

Paul Schrader

The list of potential recipients this year is lengthy:

Jimmy Chin/Everest: The Other Side

Olivia Colman/Elsinore

Willem Dafoe/Tenzing

Jesse Eisenberg/The Debut

Paul Giamatti/The Debut

Andrew Haigh/A Long Winter

Sandra Huller/Fatherland and Rose

Vicky Kreips/The Idiot(s)

John Malkovich/Wild Horse Nine

Martin McDonagh/Wild Horse Nine

Julianne Moore /The Debut

Cristian Mungiu/Fjord

Gut Pearce/Ink

Renate Reinsve/Fjord

Sam Rockwell/Wild Horse Nine

Ira Sachs/The Man I Love

Andrew Scott/Elsinore

Lea Seydoux/The Unknown, Alpha Gang and Gentle Monster

Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi/Everest:The Other Side

Andrey Zvyagnistaev/Minotaur

And. of course, all of these could be wrong.

CLUB KID TRAILER AND POSTER REVEALED

Sitting this week at #4 on the list of MTFB's Bets is Club Kid.  The film was a sensation at Cannes in May and I'll try to catch it at TFF.  Here are a trailer (warning...language) and poster for the film:

From YouTube and A24:

And the new poster:

DIGGER TO BOW IN LONDON

For those that have been thinking that Alejandro Inarritu's Digger starring Tom Cruise might still be a viable choice as a "Sneak Preview" for Telluride despite repeated reports that the film was bypassing the fall film circuit...here's another blow to that hypothesis.  Warners announce Tuesday that the film will World Premiere in London as a Royal Film Performance.

The announcement is big on making sure everyone knows it's a World Premiere.

That feels pretty definitive to me.

Could it still "sneak" at Telluride?  Sure, it's possible but I'd put those chances right now at about 5%.

Here's the official announcement from Warner Bros.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260818741409/en/Warner-Bros.-Pictures-Legendary-Pictures-and-The-Film-and-TV-Charity-Announce-the-Royal-Film-Performance-of-DIGGER?utm_campaign=shareaholic&utm_medium=email_this&utm_source=email

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Who's On the Guest List? / Gold Derby Spills Some Tea / Does Gibney Play Anyway?

WHO'S ON THE GUEST LIST?

One of the great things about Telluride is the folks that come to support the films that screen there.  Bountiful Q&A's give regular Joe's an opportunity to hear from great directors, actors and other creatives about the film's they're involved in.

So it's always fun to take a look at the talent who might make the trip to southwest Colorado.  Here's a rundown of some of the films that MTFB thinks will make the grade at Telluride and the stars that might be in town with those projects.

ALPHA GANG: Cate Blanchett, Dave Bautista, Chris Pine, Lea Seydoux

BUCKING FASTARD: Rooney Mara, Kate Mara, Orlando Bloom, Domhnall Gleeson

CLUB KID: Cara Delevingne, Diego Calva

THE DEBUT: Julianne Moore, Paul Giamatti, Jesse Eisenberg

ELSINORE: Andrew Scott, Oliva Colman.

FATHERLAND: Sandra Huller, August Diehl

FJORD: Renate Reinsve, Sebastian Stan

GENTLE MONSTER: lea Seydoux, Catherine Denueve

THE IDIOT(S): Amy Lou Wood, Johnny Flynn, Vicky Kreips

INK: Jack O'Connell, Guy Pearce, Claire Foy

LA BOLA NEGRA (THE BLACK BALL): Penelope Cruz, Guitarricardelafuente, Glenn Close

THE LIBERATION: Carrie Coon, Tracy Letts, Lily James

A LONG WINTER: Kit Connor, Ebon Moss-Bachrach, Caitriona Balfe

THE MAN I LOVE: Ebon Moss-Bachrach, Rami Malek, Rebecca Hall

ROSE: Sandra Huller

TENDER LOVING CARE: Kate O'Flynn

TENZIG: Willem Dafoe, Tom Hiddleston, Caitriona Balfe

THE UNKNOWN: Lea Seydoux

WILD HORSE NINE: Sam Rockwell, John Malkovich, Steve Buscemi, Parker Posey, Tom Waits

And a few from the "Possibilities" list:

THE BASICS OF PHILOSOPHY: Bill Pullman, Dana Delaney, Jack Huston

DIAMOND: Andy Garcia, Dustin Hoffman, Bill Murray

PRIMETIME: Robert Pattinson, Merritt Weaver

GOLD DERBY SPILLS SOME TEA

In a post from Gold Derby from last week titled: 

"2026 fall festival scorecard: Who’s heading to Venice, Telluride, TIFF, and NYFF — and who’s skipping the circuit?" 

They name seven films that..."Despite the Telluride Film Festival's long-standing tradition of keeping its official program strictly under wraps until the eve of Labor Day weekend, the tea leaves are brewing up some obvious premieres..."

The films:

Bucking Fastard

The Debut

Elsinore

Ink

A Long Winter

Tender Loving Care

Wild Horse Nine

They also suggest that Primetime is a possibility.

The complete Gold Derby article is linked here.

https://www.goldderby.com/film/2026/2026-venice-telluride-toronto-new-york-festivals-scorecard/

DOES GIBNEY PLAY ANYWAY?

We already have discerned that Alex Gibney's documentary about Elon Musk is not going to play Telluride, but could another Gibney doc make the TFF #53 lineup?

I'm talking about Knife, Gibney's look at the 2022 attempt on the life author Salman Rushdie.  Rushdie, as of TFF #52 was still listed among a member of TFF's "Esteemed Council of Advisors in last year's TFF #52 program so it seems like a no-brainer, except...the doc has screened already in the USA.

Knife world premiered at Sundance this year and has also been programmed at Sundance, Chicago's DOC 10 fest, Nantucket and it has screened in New York.  On the other hand, the film is being distributed by Abramorama which had Ask E. Jean at TFF #52.

I'm putting its chances at 40% and let's see what happens.

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Twenty Bets for TFF #53-Vol. 9/ Additions from New York and Toronto / This and That: The Debut, Gentle Monster, A Long Winter

TWENTY (PLUS) BETS FOR TFF #53-VOL. 9

Hi there!  Down to three weeks before the 53rd edition of the Telluride Film Festival.  Personally, I feel like it's going to be a banger this year.

Here's your weekly update-now expanded to 20 films  that MTFB thinks are going to screen over labor Day weekend.  First, though, a reminder of the "Bets" from last week:

1) Elsinore

2) The Debut

3) Ink

4) Club Kid

5) La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)

6) A Long Winter

7) Fjord

8) Minotaur

9) Everest: The Other Side

10) Tender Loving Care

11) Gentle Monster

12) Tenzig

13) Fatherland

14) Rose

15) The Man I Love

16) My Undesirable Friends Part II

17) Rehearsal for a Revolution

18) The Unknown

19) Bucking Fastard

20) The Story of Documentary Film

Other possibilities: 

 

Ancient History

Alpha Gang

The Basics of Philosophy

Burgundy

Company

Diamond

Primetime

Saturn Return

Sense and Sensibility

Wild Horse Nine

Yellow Letters

AND NOW...your latest Twenty (Plus) Bets:

1) Elsinore

2) The Debut

3) Ink

4) Club Kid

5) La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)

6) A Long Winter

7) Fjord

8) Minotaur

9) Everest: The Other Side

10) Tender Loving Care

11) Gentle Monster

12) Wild Horse Nine

13) Fatherland

14) Rose

15) The Man I Love

16) My Undesirable Friends Part II

17) Rehearsal for a Revolution

18) The Unknown

19) Bucking Fastard

20) Tenzing

21) Alpha Gang

22) The Idiots

23) The Liberation

24) Making Marie Antoinette

25) One More Time

Other possibilities: 

 

Ancient History

The Basics of Philosophy

Burgundy

Diamond

Primetime

Sense and Sensibility

The Story of Documentary Film

Yellow Letters

ADDITIONS FROM NEW YORK AND TORONTO

Earlier this week both the New York and Toronto fests added what are probably the last films to their lineups and premiere designations from each give his clues about further films that are lirkly playing Telluride.

From New York, the additions of  Making Marie Antoinette and One More Time.  Making Marie Antoinette comes from Eleanor Coppola and focuses on, well... the making of Marie Antoinette.  One More Time re-visits indie film giant Andre Gregory.

Each film was announced as a New York Premiere which lead to its inclusion on this week's bets.

Toronto indications of Canadian Premieres for Michal Englert and Małgorzata Szumowska's The Idiot(s) and Guy Nattiv's The Liberation, portend a Telluride play for each.

Additionally, TIFF indicates confirmations for Telluride for Bucking Fastards and Wild Horse Nine.  New York confirmations are The Debut, Bucking Fastards, Club Kid and Fjord.

And, sadly, it looks like Tom McCarthy's A Statement, a film I was hoping might play at Telluride, will instead World Premiere at the New York Fest.  I thought there might be a return to TFF after Spotlight started there in 2015 and ended up with that film winning the Oscar for Best Picture.

THIS AND THAT

TRAILER FOR THE DEBUT

from YouTube

TRAILER FOR GENTLE MONSTER

From YouTube

FIRST LOOKS FROM A LONG WINTER

We have a first set of photos from Andrew Haigh's A Long Winter from The Playlist.  Here are a couple:

You can find a couple more here at The Playlist.

https://theplaylist.net/a-long-winter-first-look-andrew-haighs-tiff-bound-pic-20260811/

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

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More Reveals from New York and Toronto / Ten (Plus) Bets for TFF #53-Vol.8 / Tid Bits: La Bola Negra, The Debut

MORE REVEALS FROM NEW YORK AND TORONTO

The New York Film Fest announced its Main Slate of films for 2026 and its use pf Premiere designations leads MTFB to the following conclusions:

New films to add to your TFF #53 list are:

Fatherland

Rose

My Undesirable Friends Part II

The Man I Love

Also, we think confirmed for Telluride, films we already decided would play from earlier announcements:

Minotaur

A Long Winter

The Unknown

Additional announcements from Toronto suggest T-ride will screen Rehearsals for a Revolution but will not have Alex Gibney's Musk.

I'm pretty sure we have more news coming from both Toronto and New York.  Perhaps even today.  Watch MTFB Social Media accounts (see below) for any updates that may occur during the day.

so, with new info, here's the latest "Ten (Plus) Bets...

TEN (PLUS) BETS FOR TFF #53-VOL. 8

Got some changes now...

Last week's Ten (Plus) Bets:

1) Elsinore

2) The Debut

3) Ink

4) Club Kid

5) La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)

6) A Long Winter

7) Fjord

8) Minotaur

9) Everest: The Other Side

10) Tender Loving Care

11) Gentle Monster

12) Tenzig

13) Bucking Fastard

14) Fatherland

15) The Story of Documentary Film

Other possibilities: Yellow Letters, Rose, Alpha Gang, The Unknown, Sense and Sensibility.

And your shiny brand new Bets:

Andrew Scott in Elsinore

1) Elsinore

2) The Debut

3) Ink

4) Club Kid

5) La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)

6) A Long Winter

7) Fjord

8) Minotaur

9) Everest: The Other Side

10) Tender Loving Care

11) Gentle Monster

12) Tenzig

13) Fatherland

14) Rose

15) The Man I Love

16) My Undesirable Friends Part II

17) Rehearsal for a Revolution

18) The Unknown

19) Bucking Fastard

20) The Story of Documentary Film

Other possibilities: 

 

Ancient History

Alpha Gang

The Basics of Philosophy

Burgundy

Company

Diamond

Primetime

Saturn Return

Sense and Sensibility

Wild Horse Nine

Yellow Letters

TIDBITS

***Netflix has moved the release date for La Bola Negra (The Black Ball) up from its original date of Nov. 6th to Oct 16th.  The streamer is giving the Cannes hit a 47 day theatrical window in what is seen as a bid to enhance its Oscar prospects.

***Jesse Eisenberg's The Debut has been announced as the closing night film for the BFI/London Film Festival.

Both films are widely expected to screen over Labor Day weekend in Telluride.

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