Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
"But it's our job." - Anne Thompson, Indiewire
MTFB FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS: PICTURE AND DIRECTION
MTFB starts out its Oscar nomnation predicitions for the 2027 awards with our initial predix for Best Picture and Best Direction.
BEST PICTURE
1) The Odyessy
2) Wild Horse Nine
3) La Bola Negra
4) Project Hail Mary
5) The Invite
6) Dune: Part Three
7) The Debut
8) Fjord
9) I Play Rocky
10) You Can See Everything
Others: Club Kid, All of a Sudden, Elsinore.
DIRECTION
1) Christopher Nolan/The Odyessy
2) Martin McDonagh/Wild Horse Nine
3) Javier Ambrossi, Javier Calvo/La Bola Negra
4) Olivia Wilde/The Invite
5) Denis Villemeuve/Dune: Part Three
Others: Phil Lord, Christopher Miller/Project Hail Mary, Ryusuke Hamaguchi/All of a Sudden, Christian Mungiu/Fjord.
I'll have the first MTFB predictions for Lead Acting up for Thursday's post.
TFF #53 FILMS AND THE MILL VALLEY FEST AWARDS
TFF #53 films were wellrepresented at the end of the Mill Valley Film Festival with Tenzing and Elsinore taking top honors among awards voted on by MVFF audiences. Here's the rundown:
Overall Audience Award: Tenzing
Audience Award: Narrative Feature: Elsinore
Acting Awards went to Andrew Scott for Elsinore and Lea Seydoux for Gentle Monster.
Mind the Gap Award for Direction: Marie Kreutzer/Gentle Monster.
CRITICS CHOICE DOCUMENTARY AWARDS NOMINEES INCLUDE LOTS OF TFF #53 FILMS
The Critics Chioce Awards announced nominees for the best of 2026. Several TFF #53 made the cut as well as three docs from TFF #52. Here are the Telluride docs earning nominations:
You Can See Everything (5): Best Documentary Feature, Direction, Cinematography, Editing and Score.
Once Upon a Time in Harlem (5): Best Documentary Feature, Best Forst Documentary Feature, Best Historical Doc, Best Archival Doc.
Everest: The Other Side (4): Best Documentary Feature, Best Sports Doc, Cinematography and Editing.
Rehearsals for a Revolution (3): Best Documentary Feature, Best Archival Doc, Best Narration.
Making Marie Antoinette (1): Best Archival Doc.
Avedon (1): best Bioraphical Doc.
And fro TFF #52:
Man on the Run (2): Best Music Doc, Best Archival Doc.
Everywhere Man (1): Best Music Doc.
Ask E, Jean (1) Best Political Doc.
Ava Dubernay's 14th, which did not play at Telluride, led all nominees with six.
Nope...this isn't a segment musing about Inarritu's Digger.
Periodically I sit down and go through my "Future Telluride" folder. Yes, it's true. I see something that looks interesting regarding Telluride, I stuff it in there for future reference. Is it valuable? I think so. As an example...here are some of the films that I had tucked away a year to two years befor they bowed at Teluride:
The Only Living Pickpocket in New York
Ink
A Long Winter
Fatherland
Bucking Fastard
The Debut
Mastermind
Jay Kelly
Hamnet
As a tease, I have nearly two dozen titles sitting in the folder that feel like they could be TFF #64 or #55 choices...but I'm keeping those quiet...for now.
OSCAR EXPERTS WITH EARLY PREDICTIONS-MARK JOHNSON-THE CONTENDING
Not quite as comprehensive as some of the "experts" I have already shared. All the folks, including Mark, the play the Oscar prediciton game have choices up for the "above-the-line" categories.
So, among those cateories, this is what mark is currently prediciting from films that played TFF #53:
Wild Horse Nine (6): Best Picture, Dircetion, Actor (Malkovich), Supporting Actor (Rockwell), Original Screenplay, Casting.
La Bola Negra (5): Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actor (Guitarricadelafuente), Adapted Screenplay, Casting.
The Debut (4): Best Picrure, Actress (Moore), Supporting Actor (Giamatti), Original Screenplay.
Elsinore (2): Best Picture, Actor (Scott).
Rose (1): Best Actress (Huller).
Club Kid (1): Original Screenplay.
Tender Loving Care (1): Original Screenplay.
Among these nine categories seven TFF #53 films are predicyed to pick 20 nominations.
TFF #53 films were well rewarded by the just concluded Hampton International Film festival.
La Bola Negra was named Best Narrative feature this week, Elsinore was named Best narrative Feature Audience Award winner. Bugundy was named the audience winner for Best Documentary.
EARLY PREDICTIONS FROM OSCAR EXPERTS-SCOTT FEINBERG OF THE HOLLYWOOD REPORTER
MTFB continues the transition of this spece fromTelluride lineup specualtion to Oscar speculation. I've been culling Oscar picks from a variety of sources to give readers a taste of where the opening weeks of Oscar season commences. Today we look at the predicitions from Scott Feinberg from The Hollywood Reporter. Here are the TFF #53 films Feinberg is predicited for nominations:
La Bola Negra (14): Best Picture, International Feature, Direction, Supporting Actress (Cruz), Adapted Screenplay, Song, Casting, Cinematography, Costumes, Editing, Makeup/Hair, Production Design, Sound, Visual Effects.
Wild Horse Nine (10): Best Picture, Direction, Actor (Malkovich), Supporting Actor (Rockwell), Supporting Actress (di Giorlamo), Original Screenplay, Score, Casting, Cinematography, Edting.
The Debut (3): Best Actress (Moore), Supporting Actor (Giamatti), Song.
Club Kid (3): Best Picture, Original Screenplay, Casting.
Fjord (3): Best Picture, International Feature, Original Screenplay.
Elsinore (2): Best Picture, Actor (Scott).
Rose (2): Best Inetrnational feature, Actress (Huller).
Fatherland (2): Best Cinematography, Production Design.
Tender Loving Care (2): Best Original Screenplay, Casting.
You Can See Everything (1): Best Picture.
The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (1): Best Actor (Turturro).
The Liberation (1): Best Actress (Coon).
Minotaur (1): Best International Feature.
Ink (1): Best Adapted Screenplay.
Once Upon a Time in Harlem (1): Best Documentary.
My Undesireable Friends-Part Two (1): Best Documentary.
Feinberg has 16 TFF #53 films earning 48 nominations.
MTFB continues to look at the opening set of Oscar predictions from various Oscarologists. Today's look is from Joey Magidson's Awards Radar.
La Bola Negra (10): Best Picture, International Feature, Direction, Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Cinematography, Costumes, Editing, Sound and Song.
Wild Horse Nine (9): Best Picture, Direction, Actor (Malkovich), Supporting Actor (Rockwell), Original Screenplay, Casting, Cinematography, Editing, Score.
The Debut (5): Best Picture, Actress (Moore), Supporting Actor (Giamatti), Original Screenplay, Song.
Fjord (4): Best Picture, International Feature, Actor (Stan), Actress (Reinsve).
Club Kid (2): Best Picture, Original Screenplay.
Rose (2): Best International Feature, Actress (Huller).
You Can See Everything (2): Best Picture, Best Documentary.
Tender Loving Care (2): Best Supporting Actress (O'Flynn), Original Screenplay.
Elsinore (1): Best Actor (Scott).
The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (1): Best Actor (Turturro).
Liberation (1): Best Actress (Coon).
Fatherland (1): Best International Feature.
Awards Radar has 12 TFF #53 films earning a total of 39 nominations.
We've made the run of post-festival ratings with the reportage of results from my annual poll of the People, the Professionals and then the Composite of both together. It looks like several films that screened at TFF #53 have the potential for Oscar success. So, as has become the custom here at MTFB, we turn the page to what happens now in awards season to the films that made up the TFF #53 lineup.
For quick reference here the ten movies that GD experts place as getting a Best Picture nomination (TFF #53 films are in Bold):
1) The Odyssey
2) Wild Horse Nine
3) Project Hail Mary
4) La Bola Negra
5) The Debut
6) The Invite
7) Dune: Part Three
8) Fjord
9) Digger
10) I Play Rocky
Three other TFF #53 films are in the Gold Derby Top 20 for Best Picture:
12) Elsinore
15) Club Kid
19) Fatherland
OSCAR EXPERTS EARLY PICKS: VARIETY
I'm going to run through about half-a-dozen or so Oscar experts and their early predictions focusing on what they're saying vis-a-vis TFF #53 films. We start with Clayton Davis of Variety. Here's every TFF #53 film he predicts as nominees for the 21 feature categories:
Leading the way from the Davis predictions is La Bola Negra with 11 predicted nominations:
La Bola Negra (11): Best Picture, International Feature, Direction, Supporting Actress (Cruz), Adapted Screenplay, Production Design. Cinematography, Costumes, Editing, Sound, Score.
Wild Horse Nine (6): Best Picture, Direction, Actor (Malkovich), Supporting Actor (Rockwell), Original Screenplay, Editing.
The Debut (5): Best Picture, Actress (Moore), Supporting Actor (Giamatti), Original Screenplay, Song.
Tender Loving Care (3): Best Actress (Bailey), Supporting Actress (O'Flynn), Original Screenplay.
Elsinore (2): Best Actor (Scott), Casting
You Can See Everything (1): Best Picture.
The Only Living Pickpocker in New York (1): Best Actor (Tutturro).
Fatherland (1): Best Actress (Huller),
Club Kid (1): Best Original Screenplay.
Everest: The Other Side (1): Best Documentary.
Fjord (1): Best International Feature.
Minotaur (1) Best International Feature.
A total of 12 TFF #53 films would earn 34 Oscar nominations per the predictions from Davis.
We cap off the run of posts that highlight the way people rated the films at Telluride today with what I call The Composite Telluride in which I add up a film's ratings from both The People and the Pros.
This year nine films had enough responses from both groups to make this list. There are seven films that made one list but didn't make The Composite because they failed to get enough people to see them from one group or the other. Those were You Can See Everything which didn't make the People's list and Rose, Tenzing, Liberation, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York, Fatherland and Alpha Gang which weren't seen by enough Pros.
So, here's the Composite. Each title is listed with it's composite rating (on a scale of 10) and its positions on the Pro list then the Peoples list.
1) Wild Horse Nine 9.05 [2-2]
2) La Bola Negra 8.64 [6-1]
3) Club Kid 8.57 [4-4]
4) The Debut 8.29 [5-6]
5) Fjord 8.23 [3-8]
6) Elsinore 8.16 [8-3]
7) Tender Loving Care 7.22 [7-12]
8) Ink 7.16 [9-11]
9) A Long Winter 5.99 [10-14]
Another note to pass along are the films that were seen most frequently...indicating the initial interest, or lack thereof, for a particular film.
These were the hottest films using that metric (according to the People's Poll):
1) The Debut with 83.7% of respondents having seen it.
2) Wild Horse Nine 84.1%
3) Elsinore 81.0%
4) Ink 77.8%
5) La Bola Negra (Tie) 61.9%
5) Club Kid (Tie) 61.9%
And for some historical perspective:
You Can See Everything will move to the top of the list for ratings by The Professionals. Its 4.83 rating average will top Moonlight by .01 of a point. Moonlight had a 4.82.
Wild Horse Nine will become the #10 all-time rated by the Professionals with its 4.62 jumping ahead of La La Land.
La Bola Negra becomes the #8 all time highest rated film for The People's Poll with its 4.56.
Wild Horse Nine also becomes the #9 rated film on the all time Composite list with its 9.05.
La Bola Negra becomes the #25 rated film on the all time Composite list with its 8.64.
TRAILERS FOR WILD HORSE NINE AND YOU CAN SEE EVERYTHNG
WILD HORSE NINE from YouTube:
And a new poster as well:
YOU CAN SEE EVERYTHING from You Tube:
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Well, here we are on the cusp of another Telluride Film Festival and as promised hare is a look at my final "bets" to play TFF #53. As a reminder of where we've been here:
The original Ten Bets from back in June (with what I think is playing designated with***):
***The Black Ball
***Bucking Fastard
Coward-NOPE
***The Debut
***Fatherland
***A Long Winter
***Minotaur
Paper Tiger-NOPE
The Story of Documentary Film-MAYBE
Yellow Letters-MAYBE
AND HERE'S THE FINAL PREDICITION
1) Elsinore
2) The Debut
3) Ink
4) Club Kid
5) Bucking Fastard
6) Wild Horse Nine
7) Fatherland
8) La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
9) A Long Winter
10) Everest: The Other Side
11) Minotaur
12) Fjord
13) Tender Loving Care
14) Gentle Monster
15) Rose
16) The Man I Love
17)The Alpha Gang
18) My Undesirable Friends Part II
19) Rehearsal for a Revolution
20) The Only Living Pickpocket in New York
21) Tenzing
22) The Idiots
23) The Liberation
24) Making Marie Antoinette
25) One More Time
Other possibilities:
Ancient History
The Basics of Philosophy
Burgundy
Diamond
Primetime
Sense and Sensibility
The Story of Documentary Film
The Unknown
Yellow Letters
I'll post the announced schedule tomorrow morning when it's released.
THE PEOPLE'S TELLURIDE-14TH EDITION
For the 14th year MTFB is soliciting your input for The People's Telluride. All you have to do is watch films during the fest and then, when it's all over, report to me your assessment of each film on a 1-5 scale with 1 being "UGH!" and 5 being "GREAT".
Report your ratings to: mpgort@gmail.com
The deadline for this year to turn in your ratings will be Sept. 15th.
Time to Rock 'n Roll...see you in The Ride!
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com
X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2
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MTFB's Facebook Page
MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays
If you would like to be added to the MTFB e-mail list send an email to mpgort@gmail.com
As I write today's post, we are a week away from the lineup announcement. The easy work is done with Toronto, New York and Venice all revealing information from which we can infer probable films playing in Telluride. We're now in a phase where the sleuthing comes down to scraps of information online or from behind the scenes. In some ways it's the most fun.
Anyway, we're a week away and this is the next to last update before The SHOW kicks off next week. Reviewing last week's 20+ Bets:
1) Elsinore
2) The Debut
3) Ink
4) Club Kid
5) Bucking Fastard
6) Wild Horse Nine
7) Fatherland
8) La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
9) A Long Winter
10) The Alpha Gang
11) Fjord
12) Minotaur
13) Everest: The Other Side
14) Tender Loving Care
15) Gentle Monster
16) Rose
17) The Man I Love
18) My Undesirable Friends Part II
19) Rehearsal for a Revolution
20) The Unknown
21) Tenzing
22) The Idiots
23) The Liberation
24) Making Marie Antoinette
25) One More Time
Other possibilities:
Ancient History
The Basics of Philosophy
Burgundy
Diamond
Primetime
The Story of Documentary Film
Yellow Letters
And here is this week's updated Bets:
1) Elsinore
2) The Debut
3) Ink
4) Club Kid
5) Bucking Fastard
6) Wild Horse Nine
7) Fatherland
8) La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
9) A Long Winter
10) Everest: The Other Side
11) Minotaur
12) Fjord
13) Tender Loving Care
14) Gentle Monster
15) Rose
16) The Man I Love
17)The Alpha Gang
18) My Undesirable Friends Part II
19) Rehearsal for a Revolution
20) The Unknown
21) Tenzing
22) The Idiots
23) The Liberation
24) Making Marie Antoinette
25) One More Time
Other possibilities:
Ancient History
The Basics of Philosophy
Burgundy
Diamond
The Only Living Pickpocket in New York
Primetime
Sense and Sensibility
The Story of Documentary Film
Yellow Letters
I'll have one FINAL BETS post a week from today.
TRIBUTE CLUES FROM TELLURIDE
One of the ways that often give clues about what direction Tributes might be going has traditionally been to look at films scheduled for free in Elks Park prior to the start of the fest. Earlier this morning the flyer for the free screening s is up:
It's difficult to see here, but Wednesday night is a screening of Project Hail Mary and Thursday is Being John Malkovich. Draw your own conclusions,,,
OTHER OUTLETS TALK TELLURIDE
A number of film-centric websites are opining re: TFF #53's films. Links to some of those are here:
And here's your update with just two weeks left to The SHOW:
1) Elsinore
2) The Debut
3) Ink
4) Club Kid
5) Bucking Fastard
6) Wild Horse Nine
7) Fatherland
8) La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
9) A Long Winter
10) The Alpha Gang
11) Fjord
12) Minotaur
13) Everest: The Other Side
14) Tender Loving Care
15) Gentle Monster
16) Rose
17) The Man I Love
18) My Undesirable Friends Part II
19) Rehearsal for a Revolution
20) The Unknown
21) Tenzing
22) The Idiots
23) The Liberation
24) Making Marie Antoinette
25) One More Time
Other possibilities:
Ancient History
The Basics of Philosophy
Burgundy
Diamond
Primetime
The Story of Documentary Film
Yellow Letters
TALKING TRIBUTES
We're so close to TFF #53 so it seems like a good time to speculate about TFF Tributes. The fest traditionally choses 3 individuals for this special honor each year. That can and has varied from time to time but three is the most common.
Past tribute recipients that could possibly be in Telluride include:
Cate Blanchett
Danny Boyle
Kem Burns
Mark Cousins
Penelope Cruz
Catherine Denueve
Werner Herzog
Mike Leigh
Rooney Mara
Paul Schrader
The list of potential recipients this year is lengthy:
Jimmy Chin/Everest: The Other Side
Olivia Colman/Elsinore
Willem Dafoe/Tenzing
Jesse Eisenberg/The Debut
Paul Giamatti/The Debut
Andrew Haigh/A Long Winter
Sandra Huller/Fatherland and Rose
Vicky Kreips/The Idiot(s)
John Malkovich/Wild Horse Nine
Martin McDonagh/Wild Horse Nine
Julianne Moore /The Debut
Cristian Mungiu/Fjord
Gut Pearce/Ink
Renate Reinsve/Fjord
Sam Rockwell/Wild Horse Nine
Ira Sachs/The Man I Love
Andrew Scott/Elsinore
Lea Seydoux/The Unknown, Alpha Gang and Gentle Monster
Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi/Everest:The Other Side
Andrey Zvyagnistaev/Minotaur
And. of course, all of these could be wrong.
CLUB KID TRAILER AND POSTER REVEALED
Sitting this week at #4 on the list of MTFB's Bets is Club Kid. The film was a sensation at Cannes in May and I'll try to catch it at TFF. Here are a trailer (warning...language) and poster for the film:
From YouTube and A24:
And the new poster:
DIGGER TO BOW IN LONDON
For those that have been thinking that Alejandro Inarritu's Digger starring Tom Cruise might still be a viable choice as a "Sneak Preview" for Telluride despite repeated reports that the film was bypassing the fall film circuit...here's another blow to that hypothesis. Warners announce Tuesday that the film will World Premiere in London as a Royal Film Performance.
The announcement is big on making sure everyone knows it's a World Premiere.
That feels pretty definitive to me.
Could it still "sneak" at Telluride? Sure, it's possible but I'd put those chances right now at about 5%.
Hi there! Down to three weeks before the 53rd edition of the Telluride Film Festival. Personally, I feel like it's going to be a banger this year.
Here's your weekly update-now expanded to 20 films that MTFB thinks are going to screen over labor Day weekend. First, though, a reminder of the "Bets" from last week:
1) Elsinore
2) The Debut
3) Ink
4) Club Kid
5) La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
6) A Long Winter
7) Fjord
8) Minotaur
9) Everest: The Other Side
10) Tender Loving Care
11) Gentle Monster
12) Tenzig
13) Fatherland
14) Rose
15) The Man I Love
16) My Undesirable Friends Part II
17) Rehearsal for a Revolution
18) The Unknown
19) Bucking Fastard
20) The Story of Documentary Film
Other possibilities:
Ancient History
Alpha Gang
The Basics of Philosophy
Burgundy
Company
Diamond
Primetime
Saturn Return
Sense and Sensibility
Wild Horse Nine
Yellow Letters
AND NOW...your latest Twenty (Plus) Bets:
1) Elsinore
2) The Debut
3) Ink
4) Club Kid
5) La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
6) A Long Winter
7) Fjord
8) Minotaur
9) Everest: The Other Side
10) Tender Loving Care
11) Gentle Monster
12) Wild Horse Nine
13) Fatherland
14) Rose
15) The Man I Love
16) My Undesirable Friends Part II
17) Rehearsal for a Revolution
18) The Unknown
19) Bucking Fastard
20) Tenzing
21) Alpha Gang
22) The Idiots
23) The Liberation
24) Making Marie Antoinette
25) One More Time
Other possibilities:
Ancient History
The Basics of Philosophy
Burgundy
Diamond
Primetime
Sense and Sensibility
The Story of Documentary Film
Yellow Letters
ADDITIONS FROM NEW YORK AND TORONTO
Earlier this week both the New York and Toronto fests added what are probably the last films to their lineups and premiere designations from each give his clues about further films that are lirkly playing Telluride.
From New York, the additions of Making Marie Antoinette and One More Time. Making Marie Antoinette comes from Eleanor Coppola and focuses on, well... the making of Marie Antoinette. One More Time re-visits indie film giant Andre Gregory.
Each film was announced as a New York Premiere which lead to its inclusion on this week's bets.
Toronto indications of Canadian Premieres for Michal Englert and Małgorzata Szumowska's The Idiot(s) and Guy Nattiv's The Liberation, portend a Telluride play for each.
Additionally, TIFF indicates confirmations for Telluride for Bucking Fastards and Wild Horse Nine. New York confirmations are The Debut, Bucking Fastards, Club Kid and Fjord.
And, sadly, it looks like Tom McCarthy's A Statement, a film I was hoping might play at Telluride, will instead World Premiere at the New York Fest. I thought there might be a return to TFF after Spotlight started there in 2015 and ended up with that film winning the Oscar for Best Picture.
THIS AND THAT
TRAILER FOR THE DEBUT
from YouTube
TRAILER FOR GENTLE MONSTER
From YouTube
FIRST LOOKS FROM A LONG WINTER
We have a first set of photos from Andrew Haigh's A Long Winter from The Playlist. Here are a couple:
Only five weeks until we find out with certainty what will play at TFF #53. Here's a reminder of what MTFB was predicting last week:
1) The Debut
2) Elsinore
3) Ink
4) Club Kid
5) La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
6) A Long Winter
7) Minotaur
8) Fjord
9) Everest: The Other Side
10) Gentle Monster
11) Tenzig
12) Tender Loving Care
13) Bucking Fastard
14) Fatherland
15) The Story of Documentary Film
Other possibilities: Behemoth! Yellow Letters, Rose, Alpha Gang.
And here's your updated "Bets":
1) Elsinore
2) The Debut
3) Ink
4) Club Kid
5) La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
6) A Long Winter
7) Fjord
8) Minotaur
9) Everest: The Other Side
10) Tender Loving Care
11) Gentle Monster
12) Tenzig
13) Bucking Fastard
14) Fatherland
15) The Story of Documentary Film
Other possibilities: Yellow Letters, Rose, Alpha Gang, The Unknown, Sense and Sensibility.
WHO'S GOT WHAT-DISTRIBUTORS-AMAZON-MGM AND SEARCHLIGHT
We're continuing to look at distribution companies that have a robust presence at Telluride over the last five years. Today we look at both Amazon-MGM and then Searchlight.
AMAZON-MGM
Here are films distributed by Amazon-MGM at Telluride the last five fests:
2021: Encounter
2022: Wildcat, Goodnight Oppy
2023: Saltburn, Cassandro
2024: Nickel Boys
2025: Man on the Run
As I looked through the films Amazon-MGM might screen at Telluride these seemed the most possible:
Madden
Verity
I had been thinking that I Play Rocky was an outside Telluride shot but its World Premiere status at Toronto nuked that notion.
Chances:
Madden 35%
Verity 25%
SEARCHLIGHT
As for Searchlight, two films seem most "in the mix" with the reveal last Tuesday that Tony Gilroy's Behemoth! will be the New York Film Festival's Centerpiece program as a World Premiere and thus not appearing at Telluride.
Wild Horse Nine (M. McDonagh)
Sweetsick (A. Birch)
McDonagh's Wild Horse Nine seems to be Amazon-MGM's big push this fall for awards season. That makes sense as McDonagh's last two films ( Three Billboard and Banshees of Inisherin) earned 16 nominations. Wild Horse Nine certainly has the pedigree to be a film that fests are strongly pursuing this year.
Alice Birch's Sweetsick is reportedly in post-production with various sources suggesting either a late 2026 release or early 2027.
Chances for either of these films for a TFF #53 play:
Wild Horse Nine 50%
Sweetsick 20%
IMAGE OF ELSINORE
We got a first look from Focus Features of Andrew Scott in Elsinore which is very likely World Premiering at Telluride. Here that is:
IMDb description:
"A powerful, deeply moving and inspiring story of the actor Ian Charleson who faced incredible odds while preparing to give the performance of his life in Hamlet at the National Theatre in London."
We found out yesterday that Elsinore will open the BFI/London Film Festival in October.
Focus has announced a Nov. 20th release date for the film.
MIKE LEIGH...MAY BE DONE
A number of sources indicate that Mike Leigh's upcoming Tender Loving Care may be his last. TLC looks likely to screen at TFF #53.
Indiewire reported on Tuesday"
"British filmmaker Mike Leigh, one of the few directors to have won both the Venice Golden Lion and the Cannes Palme d’Or, told IndieWire that his upcoming feature, “Tender Loving Care,” may be his final film."
Leigh revealed a diagnosis of a disease that attacks a person's musculature.
In last Monday's post I referenced an a analysis from The Playlist that included some speculation that Possible Love could play Telluride. However, Toronto lists it as a North American Premiere which, absent some premiere status snafu, would mean it will not play Telluride.
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com
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MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays
If you would like to be added to the MTFB e-mail list send an email to mpgort@gmail.com
Here's your sixth look at MTFB's best guess as to what could play.
We begin with last week's list:
Bucking Fastard
Club Kid
Coward
The Debut
Elsinore
A Long Winter
Fatherland
La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
Minotaur
Paper Tiger
Other possibilities: Artificial, Fjord, Yellow Letters and The Story of Documentary Film.
And now, after the news of this past week, here's your latest Ten (Plus) Bets for TFF #53 ranked by likelihood):
1) The Debut
2) Elsinore
3) Ink
4) Club Kid
5) La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
6) A Long Winter
7) Minotaur
8) Fjord
9) Everest: The Other Side
10) Gentle Monster
11) Tenzig
12) Tender Loving Care
13) Bucking Fastard
14) Fatherland
15) The Story of Documentary Film
Other possibilities: Behemoth! Yellow Letters, Rose, Alpha Gang.
VENICE ANNOUNCES
As MTFB readers know, the Venice to Telluride connection is usually fairly robust with an average of nearly eight films playing both fests over the last five years. Here are the films that feel most likely to do both fests in 2026 in light of Venice announcing its lineup early this morning:
From the Competition lineup:
Company/C. Affleck
Ink/Boyle (all but confirmed for Telluride)
Bucking Fastard/Herzog
Wild Horse Nine/McDonagh
Primetime/Oppenheim
Out of Competition
The Basics of Philosophy/Schrader
Non-Fiction:
Burgundy/Dweck and Kershaw
Musk/Gibney
Everest: The Other Side (all but confirmed for Telluride)
Remember, our next clue about what could play Venice and then Telluride comes when the former announces its schedule.. The films that play both places will need to have an early slot in Venice.
After devastating floods an mudslides in Telluride last week, the first assessment of school facilities, including a seriously impacted Palm Theater, are emeging.
The Telluride Times reported that:
"Following meetings and a walk-through Monday of the Michael D. Palm Theatre and Telluride Intermediate School and Telluride Middle/High School complex, Nicole Hattler, Palm Arts’ executive director, described herself as “cautiously optimistic.”
Telluride city and school officials noted that the first priority will be getting all other affected areas in the schools up and ready for the opening of school by Aug. 18th. Further, they note that seating is the top priority for The Palm.
The countdown to TFF #53 grows shorter and shorter.
Here's the fifth installment of MTFB's Ten Bets, the weekly guess at what films make the Telluride lineup. We start with a reminder of last week's bets:
Artificial
Bucking Fastard
Club Kid
Coward
The Debut
Elsinore
Fatherland
La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
Minotaur
Paper Tiger
Other possibilities: A Long Winter, Fjord, Yellow Letters and The Story of Documentary Film.
If you read last Monday's post you'll recall that Neon has reversed course on Luca Guadagnino's Artificial and, at least for now, are avowing that the film "isn't likely to go down the standard festival route" which Deadline points out does not preclude some festival appearance. Heck, Deadline even says they think it will likely will be at some festival. As a matter of fact, Deadline's language doesn't shut the door on Artificial at TFF but rather, sounds like Telluride might be the most likely landing spot:
"That doesn’t mean it won’t pop up at a festival in some form (we bet it will), but it won’t have the traditional launch with the bells and whistles of a red carpet, press conference, junkets, etc."
So, I'm moving Artificial to the list of possibles and Andrew Haigh's A Long Winter back into the Ten Bets:
Bucking Fastard
Club Kid
Coward
The Debut
Elsinore
A Long Winter
Fatherland
La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
Minotaur
Paper Tiger
Other possibilities: Artificial, Fjord, Yellow Letters and The Story of Documentary Film.
A couple of other notes...
For Ten Bets #6 next week I'll begin to actually list the films in order of likelihood to play...
And we should get some news from Toronto which should be informative.
WHO'S GOT WHAT? DISTRIBUTORS: MUBI
MTFB continues its look at the film distribution companies that have had the largest profiles at the Telluride Film Festival over the past five years in an effort to, perhaps, set the table for films that could be headed to TFF #53. Up to this point for 2026 we have examined: Netflix, Neon, Sony Pictures Classics, Focus Features and A24. Each of those outfits have averaged two or more films at TFF in that time span.
Today we look at Mubi, which has had nine films at Telluride since 2021 but whose footprint has increased over the last couple of years. Additionally Mubi could potentially provide more films to TFF #53 than any other distributor.
Here's Mubi's history over the last five years:
2021: Unclenching the Fists.
2022: No films.
2023: Fallen Leaves, High & Low: John Galliano, Tehachapi.
2024: Bird.
2025: The History of Sound, King Hamlet, La Grazia, Mastermind.
And these are the films in the Mubi warehouse we think might be TFF possibilities (with their chance of making the lineup):
Coward 70%
Fatherland 65%
A Long Winter 55%
Minotaur 50%
Rose 40%
Hope 25%
NEXT BEST PICTURE GUESSES TELLIRIDE (AND OTHER FALL FESTS)
Matt Neglia and his crew at Next Best Picture have posted a massive list of films for each of the four major "fall" film fests: Telluride, Venice, Toronto and New York. Looking at his T-ride list is intriguing, Here it is with films on the MTFB Ten Bets (and possibilities) list indicated with ***.
All Of A Sudden (Ryusuki Hamaguchi)
American Doctor (Poh Si Teng)
Artificial (Luca Guadagnino)***
Behemoth! (Tony Gilroy)
Bitter Christmas (Pedro Almodóvar)
Bucking Fastard (Werner Herzog)***
Club Kid (Jordan Firstman)***
Coward (Lukas Dhont)***
The Debut (Jesse Eisenberg)***
Elsinore (Simon Stone)***
Fatherland (Paweł Pawlikowski)***
Fjord (Cristian Mungiu)***
Iron Boy (Louis Clichy)
Josephine (Beth de Araújo)
La Bola Negra (Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi)***
La Gradiva (Marine Atlan)
A Long Winter (Andrew Haigh)***
Minotaur (Andrey Zvyagintsev)***
Mouse (Kelly O’Sullivan and Alex Thompson)
The Only Living Pick Pocket In New York (Noah Segan)
Primetime (Lance Oppenheim)
Rehearsals for a Revolution (Pegah Ahangarani)
Rose (Markus Schleinzer)
Saturn Return (Greg Kwedar)
The Unknown (Arthur Harari)
Yellow Letters (İlker Çatak)***
Couple of notes:
Films on the NBP list that are not currently a "Bet" by MTFB but are on the radar are: Behemoth!, Bitter Christmas, La Gradiva, Primetime, Rose and Saturn Return.
Josephine and The Only Living Pickpocket in New York were Sundance selections which doesn't rule them out for Telluride, but it's uncommon for a film to screen both places.
Lot's of buzz early this week with first look photos and a trailer for Tony Gilroy's Behemoth! The film stars Pedro Pascal and is described at IMDb like this:
"Follows a musician from a family of musicians who returns to Los Angeles. A love letter to the music of the movies and the people who make it."
Behemoth! is being distributed by Searchlight and there is a good deal of speculation that it will be making a fall film fest run though whether that would include Telluride is very uncertain at this point.
Here's an image from the Vanity Fair article:
In addition, Searchlight dropped a trailer on Tuesday. Here that is from YouTube:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7T64gVlcc1I&t=99s
Searchlight hasn't yet announced a release date from the film.
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